MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-31 17:28:56

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Angels at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Detroit
			Andrew Heaney							Ryan Carpenter
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-190							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.260	0.237	15.4%	2.8%	25.0%	45.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.446	0.476	22.2%	0.0%	9.1%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.336	37.5%	10.3%	27.1%	37.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.421	0.422	33.3%	9.7%	9.7%	33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Heaney
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$10,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 22	Salary Rank:		3 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	5	4.05	7.06	26.7%	8.9%	30.2%	50.8%	12.3%
	2018	8	3.67	3.09	26.7%	8.9%	39.3%	32.8%	22.1%
	L14	2	4.96	0.73	23.5%	15.7%	46.7%	32.3%	29.0%

There are only two early games on the schedule today and the pitching options are fairly bleak. Heaney is the most talented of the four arms on the mound. In eight starts this season, he has a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. While those numbers are solid, he does struggle with right-handed power. On the season, he has allowed a .336 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. He’ll potentially face nine of them today against the Tigers.

Quick Breakdown: Heaney is the top pitching option of the early slate, but he’s far from a sure bet.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ryan Carpenter
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22	Salary Rank:

	2018	2	5.57	8.31	9.5%	7.1%	33.3%	30.3%	9.1%
	L14	1	6.23	9.00	0.0%	4.2%	45.5%	36.4%	13.6%

Carpenter is making his third major league start today against the Angels. In nine Triple-A starts earlier this season, he posted a 3.61 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22%. Throughout the minors, he’s had a below-average ground ball rate, which could pose problems against the Angels in this ballpark. The total for this game is set at 9.5 runs and Carpenter is a large underdog at home. He’s yet to have a good outing at the major league level, so we should be in no hurry to play him in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Carpenter in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw a favorable matchup against rookie Ryan Carpenter, who is a southpaw with a mediocre strikeout rate and a high fly ball rate. Their numbers against southpaws have really taken a dip over the last few weeks of play, but this matchup should help. Los Angeles has the highest implied run total of any team on the schedule (as of 8:00 AM ET). Mike Trout is close to a must play in this two-game slate, while Zack Cozart, Justin Upton, and Andrelton Simmons are elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.315	0.290	0.159	41.5%	7.7%	11.5%	22.0%	3B	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.463	0.497	0.324	35.7%	19.6%	19.6%	21.4%	OF	$5,400	OF	$6,000	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.318	0.314	0.081	39.1%	11.9%	33.3%	34.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.286	0.359	0.083	40.0%	5.1%	17.9%	36.7%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.343	0.383	0.096	31.3%	18.8%	6.3%	56.3%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.329	0.179	0.294	23.1%	5.6%	22.2%	30.8%	1B	$2,200	1B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.209	0.260	0.050	25.7%	4.8%	11.9%	25.7%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.273	0.214	0.138	52.6%	5.9%	35.3%	33.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.279	0.291	0.156	25.0%	8.3%	22.2%	33.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600	P	$8,000

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Zack Cozart, Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Jefry Marte

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Targeting hitters against your starting pitcher isn’t generally a strategy that we want to employ in DFS because for one to succeed, the other has to fail. With that said, the smaller the slate, the more likely I am to take a hitter or two against my pitcher, especially if I don’t feel great about the play. On the season, Andrew Heaney has allowed a .336 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, John Hicks, and James McCann all bat from the right side and all boast a .370+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.253	0.258	0.085	50.0%	3.9%	25.5%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.416	0.352	0.180	45.0%	8.9%	17.9%	35.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.316	0.409	0.277	33.3%	11.3%	26.4%	48.5%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.341	0.382	0.152	29.3%	6.1%	10.2%	48.8%	C	$2,500	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.373	0.428	0.207	37.5%	9.4%	15.6%	45.8%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.447	0.299	0.219	37.0%	15.4%	15.4%	33.3%	C	$2,500	1B/C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.509	0.363	0.268	50.0%	10.9%	19.6%	37.5%	C	$2,600	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.333	0.318	0.229	29.4%	5.0%	7.5%	36.4%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.306	0.317	0.083	46.7%	2.6%	15.8%	48.3%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, John Hicks, James McCann

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Oakland
			Ryne Stanek							Daniel Mengden
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-141							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.205	0.240	0.0%	18.2%	36.4%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.202	0.345	41.1%	0.0%	12.5%	32.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.390	57.1%	12.5%	29.2%	28.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.344	35.2%	4.4%	19.6%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ryne Stanek
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	3.67	5.85	30.5%	12.6%	35.2%	44.4%	3.7%
	2018	1	3.70	3.24	31.4%	14.3%	27.8%	44.4%	22.2%
	L14	1	5.19	3.86	20.0%	15.0%	33.3%	50.0%	25.0%

Stanek has made 29 major league appearances out of the bullpen, but only has a single start under his belt. He’ll make his second career start today against the A’s, but he won’t throw a full complement of pitches. He hasn’t thrown more than 30 pitches since May 8th, so we shouldn’t expect more than a couple of innings from Stanek. Baseball is hard enough to predict as is and now the Rays are making it worse with all of these bullpen starts.

Quick Breakdown: Even if Stanek pitches well, he won’t pitch deep enough into the game to reach value.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Mengden
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		5 of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	7	4.68	3.14	17.2%	5.3%	39.2%	25.2%	18.3%
	2018	11	4.19	2.85	16.2%	2.3%	39.9%	38.3%	16.6%
	L14	3	4.49	0.41	12.7%	1.3%	42.4%	35.3%	20.6%

Basically, we have a rookie lefty in Detroit and a bullpen start for Tampa Bay. This leaves us with Andrew Heaney and Daniel Mengden as the two viable options at pitcher. In a larger slate, both would be fringe plays at best. Mengden has an ERA under three this season, but his peripheral statistics suggest some regression. In 11 starts, he has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He’s in play today solely thanks to the fact that there aren’t any other options.

Quick Breakdown: Heaney is the best SP1 of the early slate, while Mengden is the lesser of evils for our SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but draw a decent matchup against Daniel Mengden. In addition to having a below-average strikeout rate, Mengden has allowed a .344+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. Brad Miller, C.J. Cron, and Wilson Ramos are the top targets here, although they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.348	0.301	0.202	41.9%	10.9%	26.9%	35.1%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.338	0.327	0.188	36.1%	5.0%	23.8%	45.4%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.283	0.283	0.108	37.1%	6.8%	18.9%	48.5%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.329	0.378	0.140	40.5%	6.1%	20.2%	54.8%	C	$2,700	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.314	0.368	0.123	32.5%	5.3%	21.1%	49.4%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.282	0.235	0.100	25.5%	10.1%	16.7%	46.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.338	0.339	0.109	32.8%	16.1%	25.0%	48.4%	SS	$2,700	2B/SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.307	0.426	0.143	35.5%	6.8%	25.6%	38.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Johnny Field	RIGHT	0.249	0.298	0.188	35.1%	2.0%	23.5%	41.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland

The A’s have a difficult matchup to break down because they won’t see Ryne Stanek for more than an inning or two. They’ll face a number of different relievers, both left and right-handed. Rather than focusing on one split or another, we should target the hitters that have good numbers against both left and right-handed pitching. Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Matt Chapman all fit the mold that we are looking for, while Matt Joyce and Matt Olson are best suited as tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.339	0.292	0.179	31.7%	14.0%	24.4%	30.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.365	0.327	0.236	36.9%	11.8%	19.3%	38.7%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.435	0.459	0.292	49.5%	7.2%	23.0%	36.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.368	0.350	0.215	52.3%	11.1%	30.7%	36.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.375	0.347	0.208	45.3%	11.6%	23.2%	41.0%	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.356	0.355	0.134	45.5%	6.5%	21.1%	47.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.348	0.343	0.150	42.4%	11.1%	15.6%	42.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.313	0.240	0.112	41.2%	5.6%	13.1%	44.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.302	0.368	0.214	40.0%	3.4%	35.6%	55.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Baltimore
			Sonny Gray							Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-160							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.352	35.1%	14.3%	19.6%	45.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.379	0.374	32.9%	11.8%	25.7%	32.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.397	0.384	35.6%	9.7%	17.7%	44.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.387	0.426	35.9%	10.9%	13.8%	42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$12,700
	Salary Rank:		11 of 22	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22
	2017	27	4.08	3.55	22.6%	8.4%	52.8%	28.0%	16.8%
	2018	10	4.92	5.98	18.6%	11.9%	44.9%	35.4%	15.5%
	L14	2	3.70	4.63	24.0%	8.0%	48.4%	31.3%	9.4%

The first game of the evening slate is a battle between two American League East rivals. Gray hasn’t had the best season overall, but he has turned it around a bit in his last two starts with a 3.70 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24%. We typically like to target right-handed hitters against the Orioles, but Gray has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career, so facing a right-handed heavy lineup isn’t exactly ideal. In a game that features a total of 10.0 runs, both pitchers are risky fantasy options.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is the preferred target in this game, but there are better options in tonight’s nine-game slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		20 of 22	Salary Rank:		17 of 22
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%
	2018	11	4.83	5.07	19.7%	11.3%	37.8%	34.6%	15.4%
	L14	3	5.20	5.74	18.7%	13.3%	35.3%	41.2%	13.7%

Cashner has seen a boost in his strikeout rate this season, but he’s still one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.83 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. In 2017, he had a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate, but this season he has has a low ground ball rate and a high hard contact rate. A matchup against the Yankees in this ballpark makes him an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: If you like scoring fantasy points, steer clear of Cashner.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are ranked second in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup against Andrew Cashner and they get to face him in a ballpark that favors right-handed power. On the season, Cashner has allowed a .374 xwOBA to lefties and a .426 xwOBA to righties. A full Yankees’ stack is viable here and you can construct it in a number of ways. They have power all the way through their lineup, so it’s not a bad idea to make a few different Yankees’ stacks if you are multi-entering GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.310	0.273	0.121	34.9%	14.6%	17.1%	50.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.438	0.455	0.319	46.3%	15.2%	26.7%	44.2%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,900
3	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.297	0.348	0.300	57.1%	0.0%	30.0%	42.9%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,000
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.293	0.327	0.135	34.1%	9.3%	33.5%	55.7%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,000	RF	$10,100
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.380	0.383	0.276	40.0%	11.3%	24.1%	35.6%	C	$3,500	C	$4,500	C	$9,300
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.348	0.207	0.295	43.8%	11.3%	13.9%	29.7%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,200
7	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.358	0.373	0.189	41.9%	15.3%	17.1%	45.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,400
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.376	0.395	0.200	39.6%	1.6%	20.3%	50.0%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.414	0.521	0.320	39.3%	7.1%	24.7%	29.1%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,200

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar (GPP), Gleyber Torres (GPP)

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Throughout his career, Sonny Gray has been a reverse-splits pitcher. With a right-handed heavy lineup and playing in a ballpark that favors right-handed power, this is a sneaky spot to load up on the Orioles’ offense. In 2018, Gray has allowed a .384 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo all bat from the right side and all have at least a .360 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Orioles stack will be very low owned despite their home run upside in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.386	0.298	0.126	35.6%	10.5%	21.6%	49.0%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.369	0.398	0.230	39.2%	1.9%	21.0%	40.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.380	0.325	0.255	32.8%	10.5%	16.4%	36.0%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,400	3B	$11,000
4	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.232	0.225	0.188	22.7%	1.0%	26.7%	48.6%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,300
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.361	0.279	0.164	47.6%	1.8%	23.2%	40.5%	OF	$2,700	1B	$3,400	DH	$6,600
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.287	0.284	0.048	31.2%	9.3%	35.0%	48.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,500
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.371	0.285	0.258	32.8%	14.4%	24.0%	39.1%	3B	$2,900	1B/3B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
8	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.284	0.317	0.110	33.3%	8.5%	36.2%	48.9%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
9	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.279	0.338	0.090	25.0%	11.7%	24.7%	50.0%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,600	2B	$4,500

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								NY Mets
			Jose Quintana							Seth Lugo
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-150							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.247	0.286	26.5%	9.3%	27.8%	51.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.184	0.299	24.3%	8.5%	25.4%	47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.353	40.5%	12.3%	20.1%	42.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.300	29.2%	5.6%	26.8%	41.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,600
	Salary Rank:		6 of 22	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22
	2017	32	3.80	4.15	26.2%	7.7%	44.8%	32.6%	18.2%
	2018	10	4.55	4.78	21.9%	11.6%	44.4%	37.4%	15.5%
	L14	2	4.08	3.18	28.9%	13.3%	42.3%	23.1%	19.2%

Quintana got off to a shaky start this season, but has turned it around over the last month of play. In his last two outings, he has a strikeout rate of 29% and he’s done a much better job of limiting hard contact. You’ll quickly see how thin pitching is tonight and many will land on Quintana as their SP1. He is playing in a pitcher’s park in New York and he draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has a .275 xwOBA and a 33% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. We can’t ask for a better matchup, it’s just about execution for Quintana.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is my favorite pitcher on the board in this nine-game main slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Seth Lugo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2017	18	4.33	4.71	19.5%	5.7%	42.3%	34.6%	19.1%
	2018	0	3.11	2.48	26.2%	6.9%	43.9%	27.1%	21.2%
	L14	0	2.20	2.61	30.8%	2.6%	37.5%	26.9%	11.5%

Lugo is making his first start of the season after Noah Syndergaard was placed on the DL with a finger injury. While Lugo has been a solid reliever this season, he hasn’t thrown more than 45 pitches in the month of May. He’s not going to be stretched out enough to throw a full complement of pitches, which makes him a fade even before we look at his matchup. Speaking of that, the Cubs’ projected lineup has a .329 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 21% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Lugo won’t pitch deep enough into this game to pay off his salary.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs aren’t playing in the best ballpark for offensive production and they don’t have a great matchup against Seth Lugo. While starting is a different animal than coming out of the bullpen, Lugo has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate this season. Rather than stacking the Cubs, the best way to attack Lugo is with one-off targets. Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo all own a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.363	0.373	0.119	31.5%	15.2%	11.1%	47.9%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,500
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.382	0.399	0.282	40.0%	17.0%	22.7%	50.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,400
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.399	0.343	0.165	36.8%	13.3%	17.0%	37.7%	3B	$4,400	3B	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,500
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.385	0.430	0.165	36.7%	10.4%	9.7%	36.7%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,000
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.334	0.294	0.206	28.9%	6.2%	18.6%	47.1%	C	$3,200	C	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.330	0.491	0.281	37.8%	17.6%	40.7%	26.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,200
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.283	0.309	0.071	32.9%	11.5%	22.3%	38.6%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,600
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.382	0.271	0.172	35.8%	10.8%	7.8%	35.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,000
9	Jose Quintana	LEFT	0.104	0.140	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	40.0%	83.3%	P	$8,300	P	$7,500	P	$14,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

To put this as kindly as possible, the Mets have been putrid against southpaws this season. Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Bautista are the only two batters with respectable numbers against left-handed pitching. I suppose both are viable against Jose Quintana, who has allowed a .353 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. Personally, I will be loading up on Quintana in hopes that he can dominate this struggling Mets’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.235	0.370	0.038	35.7%	12.9%	38.7%	57.1%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,700
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.368	0.364	0.190	42.0%	6.3%	15.6%	46.9%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,100	SS	$8,200
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.319	0.357	0.105	27.3%	13.3%	37.8%	63.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,700
4	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.367	0.305	0.333	37.5%	25.0%	17.9%	12.5%	3B	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.251	0.322	0.082	31.4%	5.8%	26.9%	40.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
6	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.307	0.415	0.045	35.3%	11.5%	19.2%	52.9%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,300
7	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.262	0.316	0.063	30.8%	5.9%	17.6%	41.7%	3B	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600
8	Seth Lugo	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,000	P	$8,000
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.370	0.315	0.200	36.7%	4.8%	23.8%	30.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdruabal Cabrera, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								St. Louis
			Trevor Williams							Jack Flaherty
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-144							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.330	21.5%	9.4%	10.3%	39.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.238	0.294	42.1%	10.7%	21.4%	47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.353	33.7%	6.7%	23.0%	37.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.285	32.4%	5.4%	33.9%	44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		13 of 22	Salary Rank:		10 of 22
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%
	2018	11	4.74	3.43	17.1%	7.9%	38.5%	27.7%	22.3%
	L14	3	3.60	4.24	20.6%	0.0%	39.2%	26.4%	20.8%

Williams hasn’t been a great play in DFS in his short major league career. While he induces a lot of soft and medium contact, he’s had a SIERA over 4.60 in each of the last two seasons. His strikeout rate is well below the major league average and his reverse-splits don’t bode well for a matchup against a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ lineup. As a sizable underdog on the road, Williams is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams tonight against St. Louis.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jack Flaherty
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:		9 of 22	Salary Rank:		4 of 22	Salary Rank:		3 of 22
	2017	5	4.62	6.33	21.3%	10.6%	47.6%	31.8%	15.9%
	2018	5	3.47	2.15	27.7%	8.0%	45.8%	37.5%	18.1%
	L14	3	3.19	1.40	28.2%	5.6%	42.6%	29.8%	23.4%

Flaherty is having a breakout season for the Cardinals, posting a 3.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has an electric fastball (mid-90s) and a swinging strike rate north of 11%, so he might be able to sustain a 25%+ strikeout rate moving forward. The issue against the Pirates is that they have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. Their projected lineup has a .321 xwOBA and a k-rate of 19% against right-handed pitching this season. Luckily, with pitching being so thin, Flaherty is still one of the top plays of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Flaherty is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have hit right-handed pitching well this season, but are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Their matchup against Jack Flaherty doesn’t help their cause, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA this season. I generally don’t like to play hitters against my pitcher in DFS, especially when we have more than a few games on the schedule. With interest in Flaherty, I will naturally be fading the Pirates’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.296	0.295	0.082	38.3%	7.3%	18.3%	40.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
2	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.386	0.374	0.269	44.0%	0.0%	7.4%	36.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,500
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.290	0.344	0.161	21.8%	7.4%	18.8%	46.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,400
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.334	0.327	0.128	34.5%	9.6%	18.7%	50.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.352	0.269	0.185	32.6%	5.5%	9.2%	27.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,300
6	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.372	0.333	0.158	32.7%	9.9%	15.8%	40.0%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.434	0.438	0.241	40.9%	11.3%	17.3%	34.1%	C	$3,100	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.320	0.378	0.158	27.9%	7.5%	21.1%	41.3%	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.102	0.174	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	42.1%	70.0%	P	$6,700	P	$7,000	P	$14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals have struggled against right-handed pitching over the last few weeks, but their right-handed heavy lineup should benefit from facing a reverse-splits pitcher in Trevor Williams. On the season, Williams has allowed a .353 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties, which brings a number of hitters into play here. Even though he bats from the left side, we can continue to fire up Matt Carpenter in all formats. The advanced numbers suggested serious positive regression earlier in the season and he’s finally starting to see positive results. Over the last 15 days, he has a .458 xwOBA, which is one of the best marks in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.409	0.458	0.213	50.0%	13.1%	26.3%	23.4%	3B	$3,800	2B/3B	$4,100	3B	$8,300
2	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.422	0.371	0.157	37.1%	8.1%	14.0%	53.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
3	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.379	0.293	0.211	43.3%	13.6%	27.9%	47.8%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.339	0.315	0.072	44.5%	5.6%	21.0%	50.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,800
5	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.287	0.219	0.057	31.6%	8.5%	25.4%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,200
6	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.301	0.261	0.085	38.8%	7.7%	28.2%	36.7%	SS	$3,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,600
7	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.239	0.316	0.000	38.9%	10.0%	30.0%	61.1%	3B	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,700
8	Francisco Pena	RIGHT	0.251	0.275	0.100	28.2%	1.9%	22.6%	51.3%	C	$2,000	C	$3,000	C	$5,900
9	Jack Flaherty	RIGHT	0.101	0.137	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	50.0%	66.7%	P	$7,700	P	$9,200	P	$18,000

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 31st

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

LA Angels at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tampa Bay at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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