MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 20th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.



Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
Article Image Eduardo Rodriguez Article Image Masahiro Tanaka
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.290 30.8% 1.16 37.1% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.308 35.2% 0.97 24.8% 52.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.304 25.6% 1.03 23.7% 40.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.314 39.7% 1.73 26.1% 43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 3 of 14 Salary Rank: 4 of 14 Salary Rank: 4 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6% 93.3 11.7%
2018 22 3.63 3.53 26.3% 7.1% 40.1% 26.4% 20.4% 93.3 11.1%
L14 2 3.72 5.79 26.2% 7.1% 32.1% 39.3% 21.4% 93.5 8.3%

Happy Thursday everyone! There is a single early game on the schedule, but we are going to focus our attention on the main slate. We start with the two best teams in the American League East. Rodriguez has quietly had a nice season for Boston, posting a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 7%. He is a fly-ball pitcher, but he induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which is why he doesn’t give up a ton of home runs. That will be put to the test tonight against a very potent Yankees’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not sure we need to take the risk with Rodriguez in this slate.

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 2 of 14 Salary Rank: 2 of 14 Salary Rank: 2 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5% 92.2 15.1%
2018 25 3.46 3.47 25.6% 5.7% 47.5% 37.7% 17.4% 91.7 14.3%
L14 2 2.11 0.00 35.3% 3.9% 58.1% 38.7% 9.7% 92.0 18.2%

Tanaka has been a popular DFS target of mine over the last couple of seasons. I was one of the few that still believed in him last season, despite an ERA close to five. He’s had some bad luck with home runs throughout his career, but that’s improved a bit this season. In 25 starts, he owns a 3.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 6% and a ground ball rate of 48%. A matchup against the Red Sox doesn’t look great on paper, but he’s had some success in this matchup. Boston’s current roster has a wOBA of .321 with 55 strikeouts in 307 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is viable in tournaments, but there are safer options taking the mound tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox basically have the number one seed locked in. While I expect them to rest players down the stretch, that probably won’t start until next week. As mentioned above, Masahiro Tanaka is a very good pitcher, but he does give up quite a few home runs. The three hitters in this lineup with home run upside that deserve consideration in tournaments are Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and J.D. Martinez. All three boast a .390+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season and all three have two home runs against Tanaka in their careers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.442 0.257 43.8% 11.8% 14.6% 33.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,500 RF $10,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.393 0.189 29.6% 12.1% 13.8% 38.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 LF $8,600
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.448 0.325 44.4% 11.1% 22.4% 44.1% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
4 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.377 0.255 37.6% 6.6% 16.7% 46.5% SS $3,600 SS $4,500 SS $9,200
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.407 0.212 36.7% 10.8% 21.3% 40.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.327 0.199 36.1% 8.0% 24.4% 44.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
7 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.332 0.179 30.7% 8.2% 12.3% 36.6% 2B $2,500 2B $3,600 2B $7,300
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.283 0.083 27.3% 3.9% 15.0% 41.5% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.381 0.183 42.1% 10.0% 22.4% 38.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
Team Averages 0.377 0.209 36.5% 9.2% 18.1% 40.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysMookie Betts (GPP), Andrew Benintendi (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

StackabilityORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees lead the majors in home runs hit this season and are facing a fly-ball pitcher at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I know that Eduardo Rodriguez induces a lot of soft and medium contact, but he’s not facing many offenses like the Yankees throughout the course of the season. New York has seven batters with at least a .365+ xwOBA against southpaws in their projected lineup — Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, and Gleyber Torres. I don’t love the idea of a full stack, but will be sprinkling Yankees’ hitters throughout my lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.386 0.200 43.4% 11.7% 21.5% 41.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 RF $9,000
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.271 47.5% 22.4% 29.6% 32.2% OF $4,200 OF $5,000 RF $9,700
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.386 0.264 46.5% 12.1% 19.5% 36.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.441 0.331 57.1% 11.5% 25.6% 40.8% OF $4,700 OF $4,800 RF $8,600
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.292 0.165 30.8% 7.4% 12.8% 46.0% SS $4,000 SS $5,000 SS $9,900
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.313 0.217 30.8% 6.5% 17.4% 41.9% 3B $4,200 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
7 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.411 0.239 32.7% 14.5% 22.9% 34.6% C $3,200 C $4,200 C $8,500
8 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.365 0.162 38.5% 5.1% 28.2% 34.6% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,300
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.382 0.330 48.0% 10.1% 26.9% 28.0% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
Team Averages 0.379 0.242 41.7% 11.3% 22.7% 37.3%

Elite PlaysAaron Judge (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Gary Sanchez (GPP)

Secondary PlaysAaron Judge (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), Gary Sanchez (Cash), Andrew McCutchen, Luke Voit (GPP)

StackabilityYELLOW


NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
Article Image Jason Vargas Article Image Max Scherzer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-280 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.372 37.3% 1.45 17.7% 39.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.254 26.7% 0.85 30.9% 35.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.383 0.341 34.9% 2.08 20.2% 40.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.243 0.269 33.3% 0.98 37.7% 34.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 14 Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 12 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.86 4.16 17.7% 7.7% 40.3% 32.7% 17.9% 85.6 9.9%
2018 18 4.49 6.47 19.6% 7.8% 40.2% 35.4% 15.4% 86.5 10.8%
L14 2 4.17 5.79 21.4% 7.1% 48.1% 37.9% 13.8% 85.6 9.7%

Vargas isn’t as bad as most people think, but he’s still a below-average major league pitcher. In 18 starts, he has a 4.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a hard contact rate of 35%. He has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters and we know the Nationals’ offense is loaded with power hitters from both sides of the plate. As a massive underdog on the road, Vargas is one of the easier fades on the board tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Vargas in all formats.

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $13,000 Salary: $24,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14 Salary Rank: 1 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5% 94.1 15.5%
2018 31 2.76 2.53 34.2% 6.0% 35.0% 29.8% 24.3% 94.4 15.9%
L14 3 2.78 5.40 32.9% 4.7% 29.4% 29.4% 21.6% 94.4 16.1%

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 31 starts this season, Scherzer owns a 2.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% and a soft contact rate of 24%. So basically, if you are lucky enough to make contact against Scherzer, it’s likely going to be soft or medium contact. The Mets have some good lefties in their lineup, but they will be no match for Scherzer. He’s the top pitcher of the slate and it’s not even close.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats and I will be starting my lineups with him and building from there.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have the worst matchup of the slate, they are playing on the road, and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It’s important to create leverage on the field in tournaments, but there are better ways to do it. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.291 0.138 28.0% 4.8% 18.9% 49.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.318 0.157 29.5% 4.1% 9.6% 39.5% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,200
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.345 0.180 36.5% 14.8% 22.2% 40.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.161 35.1% 11.9% 18.7% 29.8% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,500 RF $6,500
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.221 43.7% 9.2% 20.7% 34.5% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,500
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.379 0.258 36.6% 14.9% 23.2% 40.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 LF $9,300
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.278 0.235 39.1% 2.0% 33.7% 28.1% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,900
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.315 0.167 36.4% 9.9% 22.4% 49.2% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $5,900
9 Jason Vargas LEFT 0.152 0.000 17.7% 0.0% 22.7% 46.2% P $7,000 P $4,600 P $9,400
Team Averages 0.311 0.169 33.6% 8.0% 21.3% 39.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

StackabilityRED

Washington

The Nationals not only have the best pitcher on the mound tonight, but they also draw one of the best matchups. Perhaps that is why they are -280 favorites against the Mets. Jason Vargas has a below-average strikeout rate and has allowed a .372 xwOBA to lefties and a .341 xwOBA to righties this season. The matchup sets up well for a full stack, as the Nationals have a nice mix of both left and right-handed hitters in their lineup. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Wieters all boast a .350+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Victor Robles RIGHT 0.284 0.000 30.0% 9.1% 0.0% 33.3% OF $2,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,500
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.375 0.139 35.9% 11.2% 11.8% 40.3% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 IF/OF $9,100
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.399 0.234 41.3% 18.0% 24.7% 44.0% OF $4,500 OF $4,800 RF $8,700
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.462 0.263 45.7% 12.9% 17.4% 23.9% 3B $4,300 3B $5,300 3B $9,600
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.353 0.232 32.9% 10.8% 23.4% 63.4% OF $4,000 OF $5,400 LF $10,800
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.460 0.299 48.2% 15.0% 15.0% 42.9% 1B $3,100 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.383 0.075 37.0% 20.0% 26.0% 25.9% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,700
8 Adrian Sanchez RIGHT 0.391 0.174 36.8% 0.0% 17.4% 42.1% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,800 3B $5,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.299 0.000 14.3% 5.9% 11.8% 58.3% P $12,000 P $13,000 P $24,900
Team Averages 0.378 0.157 35.8% 11.4% 16.4% 41.6%

Elite PlaysTrea Turner, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Secondary PlaysVictor Robles, Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Wieters

StackabilityYELLOW / GREEN


Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
Article Image Yonny Chirinos Article Image Sam Gaviglio
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -117 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.352 41.1% 0.97 19.5% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.365 0.375 38.0% 1.72 15.5% 42.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.345 45.5% 0.61 20.1% 46.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.317 30.2% 1.62 24.2% 52.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yonny Chirinos
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 7 3.99 3.89 19.8% 6.5% 43.3% 43.4% 13.5% 93.6 11.0%
L14 0 3.28 3.38 22.2% 5.6% 46.2% 42.3% 17.3% 93.6 9.8%

Stanek will take the mound for Tampa Bay, which means it will be another bullpen game. He’s not going to pitch more than an inning or two. I haven’t seen an official update on who will take the reigns after Stanek, but based on the rotation, it should be Yonny Chirinos. He has a 20% strikeout rate on the season and will be in line for the win if the Rays can build a lead. He’s worth a look in tournaments at a price of $5,800 on DraftKings, but far from a core play on the road against the Blue Jays.

Quick Breakdown: Stanek is an easy fade, while Chirinos is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Sam Gaviglio
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 12 of 14 Salary Rank: 13 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.96 4.36 15.7% 8.3% 49.4% 31.5% 15.7% 88.6 7.1%
2018 21 4.11 5.25 20.3% 6.7% 47.6% 33.9% 16.8% 88.0 9.0%
L14 2 4.54 8.22 14.3% 2.9% 41.4% 27.6% 17.2% 87.5 6.4%

Gaviglio need a very specific matchup to warrant consideration in DFS. He needs to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup. On the season, he has held righties to a .317 xwOBA with a 24% strikeout rate, while allowing a .375 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 16% to lefties. It looks like he’ll be facing six or seven lefties tonight against the Rays, which makes him an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gaviglio in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have one of the easier matchups to break down. Sam Gaviglio is tough on righties, but as mentioned above, he has really struggled against batters from the left side of the play. He has allowed a .375 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to lefties this season. He’s also the worst pitcher on the board when it comes to holding runners, which gives a nice boost to leadoff man Mallex Smith. Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, and Brandon Lowe are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions and Tommy Pham is a nice way to complete the stack (if you are into that sort of thing).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.300 0.120 29.1% 9.0% 17.1% 49.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 CF $8,000
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.315 0.080 31.6% 7.0% 16.3% 51.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,500
3 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.393 0.255 48.2% 10.8% 25.6% 39.4% 1B $3,600 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.347 0.171 47.8% 9.6% 26.4% 50.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 CF $8,200
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.323 0.132 36.5% 5.8% 17.7% 47.0% 3B $3,000 2B $4,000 2B $7,200
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.286 0.175 35.7% 6.1% 22.5% 47.9% OF $2,800 OF $4,400 CF $8,100
7 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.356 0.230 41.2% 13.6% 26.1% 43.1% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $4,100 2B $8,200
8 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.344 0.203 43.4% 15.1% 25.5% 43.3% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,600
9 Nick Ciuffo LEFT 0.232 0.267 16.7% 15.0% 20.0% 33.3% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.322 0.181 36.7% 10.2% 21.9% 45.0%

Elite PlaysMallex Smith, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe (GPP)

Secondary PlaysBrandon Lowe (Cash), Tommy Pham (GPP), Jake Bauers (GPP)

StackabilityYELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays will start the game against Ryne Stanek and then square off against Yonny Chirinos. They are both talented righties, so the matchup isn’t exactly what I would call exploitable. If we are playing anyone from Toronto, we are banking on their talent and their value. Billy McKinney stands out as a great value play on both FanDuel ($2,700) and DraftKings ($3,500). He owns a .364 xwOBA and a .194 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.364 0.194 32.1% 8.6% 24.7% 41.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.327 0.146 32.5% 3.6% 24.0% 39.5% SS $3,000 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,200
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.400 0.259 40.2% 15.7% 26.9% 33.8% 1B $3,200 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.441 0.231 45.4% 13.0% 19.9% 44.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,400
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.348 0.273 37.4% 5.8% 25.0% 34.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.348 0.169 34.4% 3.8% 18.9% 34.2% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
7 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.325 0.136 29.2% 6.5% 15.9% 43.9% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,300 3B $6,500
8 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.268 0.160 17.1% 10.2% 16.9% 36.6% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,700
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.272 0.071 50.0% 6.6% 31.1% 35.1% SS $2,100 2B/SS $3,100 SS $5,800
Team Averages 0.344 0.182 35.4% 8.2% 22.6% 38.3%

Elite PlaysBilly McKinney

Secondary PlaysLourdes Gurriel, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Randal Grichuk

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW


Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
Article Image James Shields Article Image Josh Tomlin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-195 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.353 31.4% 1.19 19.2% 37.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.483 0.465 41.7% 4.56 13.2% 27.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.351 0.367 36.6% 1.72 16.7% 33.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.381 38.6% 2.75 13.7% 30.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 8 of 14 Salary Rank: 8 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3% 90.0 10.2%
2018 31 4.87 4.53 18.0% 8.7% 35.6% 34.1% 15.7% 89.4 10.3%
L14 2 4.94 6.97 14.0% 4.7% 38.2% 32.4% 20.6% 89.1 8.1%

Shields is a below-average pitcher that has been in bad form. That’s not a great combination to begin with, especially when you add in a matchup against the Indians. Cleveland’s projected lineup boasts a .358 xwOBA and a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching. There is far more downside than upside with Shields tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Shields in all formats.

Josh Tomlin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 12 of 14 Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 9 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 26 4.17 4.98 18.6% 2.4% 39.6% 36.2% 14.0% 87.7 8.4%
2018 7 4.98 6.49 13.5% 4.0% 29.1% 39.9% 13.9% 87.6 8.7%
L14 1 5.34 3.86 15.0% 5.0% 25.0% 37.5% 25.0% 89.2 10.1%

Tomlin is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. I’ll give him credit though, he does have very good control. Unfortunately, when you are consistently throwing hittable pitches over the plate, that’s not exactly a good thing. On the season, he owns a 4.98 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a hard contact rate of 40%. Give me all of the White Sox in this one.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Tomlin in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are playing on the road (guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats), they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Josh Tomlin. This sets up very well for a Chicago stack, even though the Indians do have a very good bullpen. Tomlin has allowed a .465 xwOBA to lefties and a .381 xwOBA to righties this season. The White Sox biggest weakness has been their high k-rate, but that’s negated in this matchup. Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, Avisail Garcia, and Omar Narvaez are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.323 0.190 37.1% 10.2% 33.6% 34.1% 2B $3,100 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.308 0.159 28.3% 7.4% 18.4% 47.0% 3B $2,900 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
3 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.336 0.275 37.4% 5.5% 32.3% 42.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,100
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.325 0.215 32.8% 3.5% 25.8% 45.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 RF $9,400
5 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.356 0.163 29.5% 9.8% 18.8% 40.6% C $2,500 C $3,800 C $7,600
6 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.333 0.205 36.4% 11.0% 34.4% 38.7% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $4,100 3B $8,500
7 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.318 0.171 31.7% 8.1% 22.7% 41.9% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.270 0.164 28.8% 5.1% 25.7% 47.3% SS $2,900 SS $4,100 SS $8,200
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.256 0.111 29.0% 3.8% 28.1% 39.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.314 0.184 32.3% 7.2% 26.6% 41.9%

Elite PlaysYoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez (DK)

Secondary PlaysOmar Narvaez (FD), Yolmer Sanchez, Matt Davidson, Nick Delmonico

StackabilityGREEN

Cleveland

The Indians were one of the biggest disappointments of the slate. With the season winding down, we have to start worrying about motivation. They are basically locked into their seed for the playoffs, so there isn’t a ton of motivation. With that said, you don’t need a lot of motivation to play well against James Shields. He’s been in poor form recently and on the season has allowed a .353 xwOBA to lefties and a .367 xwOBA to righties. Surprisingly, the Indians have not fared well in this matchup in the past, but I won’t let deter me from stacking them in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.382 0.253 41.1% 8.4% 15.7% 36.1% SS $4,600 SS $5,800 SS $10,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.400 0.188 41.7% 9.2% 8.5% 44.1% OF $4,100 OF $5,200 LF $9,800
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.404 0.328 38.0% 17.7% 11.9% 32.5% 2B $4,800 2B/3B $5,700 IF/OF $10,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.380 0.251 42.4% 8.8% 23.1% 39.8% 1B $4,200 1B $4,800 1B $9,000
5 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.322 0.188 37.0% 12.8% 24.8% 46.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 3B $9,300
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.369 0.199 38.3% 9.4% 19.8% 38.7% 1B $3,800 1B $4,200 1B $8,300
7 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.346 0.130 37.2% 8.6% 12.6% 46.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.269 0.104 42.1% 9.5% 34.2% 47.4% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,500
9 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.350 0.156 36.6% 10.8% 17.0% 35.1% OF $3,200 2B/OF $4,400 2B $8,000
Team Averages 0.358 0.200 39.4% 10.6% 18.6% 40.8%

Elite PlaysFrancisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson

Secondary PlaysMichael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso

StackabilityYELLOW / GREEN


Cincinnati at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Miami
Article Image Cody Reed Article Image Jeff Brigham
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.215 40.0% 0.00 20.0% 52.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.361 23.1% 0.00 0.0% 15.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.293 31.1% 1.80 24.1% 61.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.463 0.472 61.5% 2.25 20.0% 0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Cody Reed
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 9 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14 Salary Rank: 10 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 1 6.46 5.09 21.5% 24.1% 60.5% 32.6% 16.3% 94.3 13.3%
2018 5 3.68 4.32 23.1% 8.8% 59.2% 33.3% 18.2% 92.4 10.0%
L14 3 3.38 5.79 26.2% 9.2% 65.0% 34.2% 14.6% 91.9 9.8%

Reed will end up being one of the highest owned pitchers of the slate. In his five starts this season, he owns a 3.68 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 59%. We’ve been picking on the Marlins all season and Reed gets to face them in Miami, which has a pitcher-friendly ballpark. With that said, I don’t mind taking an under-weight approach on an inconsistent pitcher. The Marlins actually have a decent lineup that they can throw out there against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Reed is a nice value, but at the high ownership, he makes a nice fade in tournaments.

Jeff Brigham
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 13 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14 Salary Rank: 11 of 14
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 2 7.46 7.36 11.1% 13.9% 7.7% 42.3% 26.9% 92.5 7.5%
L14 1 6.61 6.23 10.5% 5.3% 12.5% 37.5% 37.5% 93.3 3.8%

Brigham didn’t have the best numbers in the minors earlier this season and he has struggled in his first two career major league starts, posting a 7.46 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11%. We have no reason to expect a turnaround, so it’s easy to take a wait and see approach on the young right-hander.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Brigham in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds draw one of the best matchups on the board. As noted above, Jeff Brigham has really struggled since being called up to the majors. Granted, this is a small sample size, but he has allowed a .361 xwOBA to lefties and a .472 xwOBA to righties this season. This is far from a hitter-friendly ballpark, but hopefully the matchup will make up for it. Scott Schebler, Joey Votto, and Eugenio Suarez all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. You can complete the stack with Jose Peraza and Scooter Gennett.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.357 0.214 40.2% 9.8% 25.4% 50.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 RF $8,100
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.301 0.123 30.2% 5.1% 12.1% 34.6% SS $3,500 SS $4,600 SS $9,100
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.447 0.153 40.4% 19.4% 14.1% 34.8% 1B $3,900 1B $4,700 1B $9,100
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.369 0.231 46.3% 9.0% 24.5% 38.6% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,200
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.338 0.191 39.3% 6.8% 19.1% 40.0% 2B $3,700 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.329 0.126 39.0% 10.3% 14.8% 41.5% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,800
7 Mason Williams LEFT 0.290 0.131 47.0% 4.4% 22.2% 49.2% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 RF $6,700
8 Cody Reed LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $6,400 P $5,500 P $11,300
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.246 0.076 17.6% 8.0% 22.3% 40.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.297 0.138 33.3% 8.1% 28.3% 36.6%

Elite PlaysScott Schebler, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Secondary PlaysJose Peraza, Scooter Gennett, Tucker Barnhart (DK)

StackabilityYELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are the under-owned offense that could surprise everyone tonight. Cody Reed has pitched well this season, but in the past, he has struggled with his control and with right-handed hitters. If you look at the table below, the Marlins have quite a few righties that hit southpaws well. Each of the first seven batters owns a .325+ xwOBA against lefties — Miguel Rojas, Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Lewis Brinson, Peter O’Brien, and Isaac Galloway. I’m not advocating a full stack, but there are some intriguing leverage plays here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.327 0.107 24.8% 7.3% 9.8% 34.0% SS $2,200 3B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000
2 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.333 0.121 41.1% 10.1% 17.6% 54.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,400
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.373 0.188 39.7% 6.3% 20.7% 35.9% C $3,100 C $4,400 C $8,200
4 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.376 0.149 43.1% 13.3% 19.4% 46.8% 3B $2,300 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
5 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.343 0.168 38.0% 6.7% 24.0% 51.4% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,700
6 Peter O’Brien RIGHT 0.390 0.600 50.0% 16.7% 16.7% 25.0% 1B $2,100 1B $3,700 LF $7,500
7 Isaac Galloway RIGHT 0.451 0.500 30.8% 20.0% 28.0% 15.4% OF $2,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,400
8 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.263 0.043 11.8% 8.0% 24.0% 47.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 LF $6,500
9 Jeff Brigham RIGHT 0.403 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $5,100 P $10,300
Team Averages 0.362 0.208 31.0% 9.8% 17.8% 34.4%

Elite PlaysJ.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson

Secondary PlaysMiguel Rojas, Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson, Peter O’Brien

StackabilityORANGE / YELLOW


Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious