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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-23 01:28:38

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb David Price baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -142 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.312 6 31.1% 19.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.307 8 31.1% 22.7%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.298 19 36.1% 26.5% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.316 11 33.1% 17.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $10,800
FPPG: 37.6 FPPG: 20.1
Pitcher Rating: 89.8 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 106.2 3.08 2.79 28.8% 4.4% 12.2% 40.6% 43.4% 31.8%
2016 32 104.0 3.46 3.91 24.9% 5.0% 12.0% 44.4% 33.3% 34.7%
2015 32 105.9 3.27 2.45 25.3% 5.3% 11.9% 40.4% 36.4% 28.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.53 — K%: 26.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.79 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Thursdays are typically split up into early and late slates, but all ten games start at 7:05 ET or later. I always prefer the larger slates, so I was happy to see that there are ten games in the main slate tonight. Price will be on the mound for the Red Sox. After a rocky start to the season, he has bounced back nicely. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, posting a 3.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.8% in his last five starts. A matchup against the Orioles seems daunting, but they are actually ranked 26th in team wOBA against southpaws this season. This isn’t the best pitcher’s park around, but Price is my top pitching target on the board tonight.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $5,300
FPPG: 31.8 FPPG: 15.9
Pitcher Rating: 41.2 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 94.7 5.47 6.59 15.4% 10.8% 6.7% 33.3% 42.2% 35.6%
2016 28 99.3 4.51 3.72 20.1% 8.9% 8.8% 40.6% 37.2% 32.2%
2015 31 94.9 4.69 4.99 16.2% 8.6% 7.1% 43.5% 35.4% 26.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.48 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328

Tillman has been in terrible form recently, posting a 5.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15.4% and a walk rate of 10.8% in his last five starts. His swinging strike rate is very low and he has been giving up a lot of hard contact in his last few outings. He is an easy fade tonight against the Red Sox, who are ranked fifth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are one of the best offenses in baseball and even though they aren’t playing in Fenway tonight, Camden Yards is quite the hitter’s park itself. They draw a favorable matchup against Chris Tillman and they come into the game with the sixth highest run projection in the slate. Tillman has allowed a 31%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.359 0.129 33.2% 0.293 2B $3,700 2B $4,500
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.339 0.147 29.1% 0.329 SS $4,000 SS $4,700
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.448 0.365 46.9% 0.442 1B $4,500 1B $5,700
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.388 0.216 33.6% 0.370 OF $3,900 OF $5,600
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.345 0.189 37.6% 0.547 1B $3,900 1B $5,300
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.331 0.184 36.3% 0.212 3B $3,300 1B/3B $4,400
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.338 0.152 34.7% 0.197 C $2,800 C $3,600
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.387 0.269 39.5% 0.386 OF $3,600 OF $5,200
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.433 0.274 35.3% 0.428 OF $3,100 OF $3,100
Team Averages — 0.374 0.214 36.2% 0.356 — — — —

Elite Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, ranking below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K%. They draw a difficult matchup against David Price, who may be coming off of his best five-game stretch of the season. There are usually a lot of runs scored when these two teams square off, but I’m not expecting much from the Orioles tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.253 0.102 31.4% 0.325 OF $3,200 OF $3,800
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.282 0.159 21.8% 0.278 2B $3,100 2B $2,900
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.390 0.211 37.5% 0.264 3B $4,000 3B/SS $4,200
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.270 0.226 36.8% 0.223 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.318 0.197 33.0% 0.262 1B $3,300 1B $3,600
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.258 0.082 32.9% 0.258 C $2,800 C $2,800
7 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.325 0.188 44.7% 0.430 SS $2,200 SS $3,200
8 Nolan Reimold RIGHT 0.261 0.119 25.7% 0.321 OF $2,800 OF $2,300
9 Drew Stubbs RIGHT 0.282 0.065 32.1% 0.143 OF $2,800
Team Averages — 0.293 0.150 32.9% 0.278 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Josh Collmenter miamimlb Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -140 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.353 3 32.5% 16.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.336 5 30.3% 9.7%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.353 3 34.2% 24.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.305 3 32.7% 22.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Collmenter
josh-collmenter-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,400 Salary: $4,400
FPPG: 8.7 FPPG: 4.2
Pitcher Rating: 54.8 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 94.0 3.54 3.60 36.4% 13.6% 11.7% 20.0% 60.0% 36.4%
2016 1 94.0 4.45 4.61 21.0% 11.8% 7.8% 44.0% 34.7% 33.3%
2015 12 90.4 4.71 3.79 12.6% 4.8% 6.9% 34.5% 40.0% 31.6%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.27 — K%: 14.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.345
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.43 — K%: 13.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326

Collmenter is making his second start of the season. While he looked good in his first outing, we shouldn’t be overly optimistic about him moving forward. In 76 career major league starts, he has a 4.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.2%. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog on the road. While the Marlins’ offense has been struggling over the last month of play, having Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup changes the landscape considerably.

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,200
FPPG: 10.9 FPPG: 4.9
Pitcher Rating: 41.7 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 88.2 4.29 4.05 16.6% 5.8% 7.8% 48.6% 26.7% 33.0%
2016 10 90.5 4.60 5.59 15.9% 7.8% 8.7% 47.8% 30.0% 31.3%
2015 9 90.8 5.29 5.25 10.2% 9.1% 8.0% 48.1% 31.8% 29.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.33 — K%: 12.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.319
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.68 — K%: 13.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.353

Urena is at the very least an intriguing tournament play tonight. He has decent numbers at home in his career and he has been in decent form over the last month of play. He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but he induces a lot of ground balls and has a hard contact rate under 32% in each of the last two seasons. Urena is cheap enough that I don’t mind taking a shot on him as a deep GPP play. The Braves have been red hot at the plate recently, but they are still ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves come into the game with the eighth lowest run projection on the board. However, they have the third highest team wOBA over the last 30 days. While I usually trust Vegas in these situations, the Braves stand out as an intriguing offense to target for tournaments. Jose Urena has struggled against left-handed hitters and we have seen what the Braves can do when they get to a pitcher early.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.317 0.099 26.0% 0.327 OF $3,300 OF $4,700
2 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.300 0.151 31.3% 0.310 3B $3,100 3B $4,500
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.413 0.291 43.0% 0.469 1B $4,000 1B $5,400
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.316 0.203 35.8% 0.443 OF $3,600 OF $4,800
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.341 0.155 34.3% 0.415 OF $2,500 OF $5,300
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.339 0.145 46.2% 0.282 C $2,800 C $3,700
7 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.335 0.139 25.6% 0.334 2B $2,600 2B $4,000
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.320 0.086 32.9% 0.364 SS $3,400 SS $3,300
9 Josh Collmenter RIGHT 0.000 P $5,400 P $4,400
Team Averages — 0.335 0.159 34.4% 0.327 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they draw a favorable matchup tonight against Josh Collmenter. In his career, Collmenter has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich stand out as the best plays here, but Giancarlo Stanton is also worth a look in GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.269 0.062 18.7% 0.255 2B $2,600 2B $5,000
2 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.318 0.163 33.6% 0.287 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
3 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.304 0.098 25.8% 0.305 3B $2,900 3B $4,000
4 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.389 0.221 42.8% 0.332 OF $3,400 OF $5,400
5 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.342 0.250 39.2% 0.485 OF $4,000 OF $5,300
6 Justin Bour LEFT 0.350 0.239 37.8% 0.175 1B $2,900 1B $3,800
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.351 0.119 30.6% 0.294 C $2,700 C $4,400
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.257 0.068 30.7% 0.154 SS $2,000 SS $2,600
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.157 0.000 0.0% 0.293 P $6,000 P $5,200
Team Averages — 0.304 0.136 28.8% 0.287 — — — —

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon (FD), Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Jason Vargas clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -160 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.000 0 100.0% 0.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.242 1 23.2% 23.6%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.222 0 22.2% 9.1% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.374 5 35.6% 20.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 9.0 FPPG: 5.0
Pitcher Rating: 26.1 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 52.0 6.05 3.00 7.7% 7.7% 9.6% 45.5% 45.5% 27.3%
2016 1 52.0 6.04 3.00 7.7% 7.7% 9.6% 45.5% 45.5% 36.4%
2015 9 76.3 4.70 3.98 14.8% 6.6% 7.7% 40.8% 40.1% 36.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.09 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 12.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.342

Vargas is making his second start of the season. He hasn’t been fantasy relevant for a few years now and I don’t expect that to change with only a couple of weeks left in the regular season. He is a large underdog tonight against the Indians in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. There is more risk than potential reward here, especially since Vargas is unlikely to get a full complement of pitches.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,500
FPPG: 15.5 FPPG: 7.8
Pitcher Rating: 65.9 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 90.7 3.67 3.60 29.7% 10.9% 12.9% 31.6% 50.0% 21.1%
2016 8 104.5 4.74 4.76 21.8% 12.7% 9.9% 39.1% 39.1% 30.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.52 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.04 — K%: 22.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.320

Clevinger has been a nice value play in his three starts this season. In his last three starts, he has a 3.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.7%. The biggest issue has been his walks, but the Royals are one of the most impatient offenses in baseball. As long as he can pitch five innings, he should be able to return value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Kansas City does not hit right-handed pitching well and Clevinger should see plenty of run support.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have been an easy offense to avoid most of the season and now that they are basically out of contention for the wildcard, I’m going to target pitchers against them whenever possible. I’m higher on Mike Clevinger than I am on the Royals’ offense, so I will be fading them in both cash games and tournaments tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.289 0.090 16.9% 0.297 OF $2,900 OF $4,500
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.282 0.099 28.7% 0.325 2B $2,900 2B/OF $4,000
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.348 0.168 36.7% 0.269 1B $3,200 1B $4,600
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.326 0.204 44.0% 0.375 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,700
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.308 0.182 35.2% 0.207 C $2,800 C $3,700
6 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.303 0.165 35.8% 0.255 OF $2,900 OF $4,300
7 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.288 0.063 29.9% 0.264 OF $3,100 OF $4,200
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.291 0.086 20.3% 0.329 SS $2,300 SS $4,000
9 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.298 0.128 29.8% 0.220 3B $2,700 3B $3,500
Team Averages — 0.304 0.132 30.8% 0.282 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians have the highest implied team total in the slate tonight. They haven’t been great against left-handed pitching this season, but they should have some success against Jason Vargas. He is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a 36.4% hard contact rate over the last two seasons. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, but give the right-handed bats a significant boost.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.302 0.149 27.3% 0.214 OF $3,100 OF $4,700
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.345 0.180 28.9% 0.308 2B $3,800 2B $4,700
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.309 0.112 28.7% 0.184 SS $3,400 SS $4,400
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.360 0.203 44.9% 0.308 1B $3,600 1B $4,900
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.318 0.120 28.6% 0.448 1B $4,200 1B $5,000
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.359 0.155 31.3% 0.403 3B $3,400 3B/OF $4,400
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.436 0.224 31.7% 0.419 OF $3,100 OF $4,000
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.336 0.182 27.5% 0.293 OF $2,800 OF $4,100
9 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.327 0.206 40.0% 0.143 C $2,000 C $3,100
Team Averages — 0.344 0.170 32.1% 0.302 — — — —

Elite Plays – Rajai Davis, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
nyyankeesmlb Luis Cessa tampabaymlb Blake Snell
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -131 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.316 6 37.3% 17.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.288 0 32.6% 26.6%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.334 8 27.2% 13.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.341 5 30.9% 23.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Cessa
luis-cessa-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 16.0 FPPG: 7.8
Pitcher Rating: 54.0 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 83.7 4.41 3.97 15.4% 3.7% 10.4% 46.3% 36.1% 27.8%
2016 6 83.7 4.58 4.44 14.8% 5.1% 10.4% 43.5% 38.1% 31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.61 — K%: 16.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.346
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.33 — K%: 13.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309

Cessa has not pitched well at the major league level this season, posting a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.8%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog on the road against a Rays’ offense that has the fourth highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. The Rays do strikeout at a high rate, but they should be able to make good contact against Cessa, who is a low strikeout pitcher.

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 27.2 FPPG: 13.4
Pitcher Rating: 66.2 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 88.0 4.77 6.41 23.4% 12.8% 12.5% 26.7% 43.3% 35.0%
2016 17 93.3 4.60 3.87 23.9% 12.7% 10.8% 36.8% 36.4% 31.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.38 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 22.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.355

Snell has pitched well at home this season, posting a 3.38 ERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4% and a wOBA allowed of only .309. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 24th in team wOBA and 25th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. The main concern here is the strikeout upside. The Yankees currently have the second lowest strikeout rate against righties. With that being said, Snell is worth a look in GPPs at his suppressed price.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees knocked Alex Cobb out of the game early last night, but draw a more difficult matchup tonight. The Yankees have struggled against southpaws all season, which could continue against Blake Snell, who has pitched very well at home this season. The only plus in this matchup is that Snell has allowed a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.291 0.089 23.6% 0.329 OF $3,100 OF $3,700
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.256 0.080 25.2% 0.270 OF $3,100 OF $3,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.340 0.390 46.2% 0.483 C $4,100 C $4,900
4 Billy Butler RIGHT 0.329 0.142 28.7% 0.489 1B $2,600 1B $3,400
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.307 0.117 32.1% 0.374 1B $2,600 1B $3,300
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.347 0.142 22.8% 0.274 SS $2,800 SS $3,200
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.309 0.083 29.0% 0.306 3B $2,800 3B $3,000
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.262 0.077 50.0% 0.282 1B $2,300 1B $2,700
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.305 0.082 27.1% 0.182 1B $2,000 1B/OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.305 0.134 31.6% 0.332 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Billy Butler

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are ranked 15th in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They are a sneaky offense to stack tonight, as they square off against a low strikeout pitcher in Luis Cessa. The sample size is small (six starts and some work out of the bullpen), but Cessa has allowed a .316 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .334 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.345 0.180 36.1% 0.311 2B $3,000 2B $4,300
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.319 0.167 30.4% 0.369 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.366 0.268 37.8% 0.364 3B $3,600 3B $4,800
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.346 0.270 36.1% 0.326 SS $3,400 1B/SS $4,500
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.329 0.263 30.4% 0.453 OF $2,900 OF $4,300
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.200 0.053 28.9% 0.157 OF $2,000 OF $2,400
7 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.240 0.089 22.4% 0.294 SS $2,000 SS $2,800
8 Richie Shaffer RIGHT 0.270 0.217 33.3% 0.212 1B $2,200 1B/3B $3,100
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.259 0.117 24.4% 0.349 C $2,000 C $2,800
Team Averages — 0.297 0.180 31.1% 0.315 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia NY Mets
philadelphiamlb Adam Morgan nymetsmlb Seth Lugo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -197 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.296 2 24.7% 20.5% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.286 3 42.7% 16.7%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.385 19 37.7% 17.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.253 1 36.0% 19.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Morgan
adam-morgan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,100
FPPG: 18.6 FPPG: 8.9
Pitcher Rating: 49.0 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 90.5 4.11 3.18 19.7% 5.8% 10.3% 43.7% 32.0% 29.1%
2016 19 92.6 4.37 5.57 18.2% 5.5% 10.4% 37.2% 37.8% 34.7%
2015 15 83.1 4.94 4.48 13.9% 4.8% 9.7% 30.6% 49.3% 29.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.92 — K%: 16.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.357
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.26 — K%: 16.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.342

Morgan has not pitched well over the last two seasons. He has an ERA over 5.00 during that stretch with a strikeout rate right around 16%. He is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog against a Mets’ team that has the fifth highest ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Morgan is an easy fade in all league formats tonight.

Seth Lugo
seth-lugo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,700
FPPG: 18.9 FPPG: 10.1
Pitcher Rating: 68.3 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 87.8 4.80 2.21 15.7% 6.8% 8.0% 42.1% 36.4% 40.2%
2016 6 87.8 4.43 2.35 18.1% 7.4% 9.1% 43.6% 36.2% 38.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.22 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.261
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.49 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276

Lugo is one of my favorite values in the slate. He doesn’t have massive strikeout upside, but he is pitching at home against a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 20th or worse in every offensive category imaginable this season. Lugo is a large favorite and he should be able to pitch the five-inning minimum needed to be eligible for the win. His upside may not be as high as some of the other cheap pitchers, but he likely has the highest floor of the bunch.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies come into tonight’s game with the lowest implied team total on the board. Even though their offense has looked great the last two nights, it’s hard to justify targeting them in this pitcher-friendly ballpark. The sample size is small, but Seth Lugo has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.329 0.117 26.8% 0.338 2B $2,900 2B $4,000
2 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.299 0.040 16.7% 0.339 OF $2,500 OF $2,800
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.360 0.169 30.2% 0.477 OF $3,800 OF $4,900
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.334 0.249 37.8% 0.526 1B $2,300 1B $4,500
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.290 0.152 29.0% 0.287 3B $2,500 3B $3,400
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.304 0.170 32.0% 0.289 C $2,800 C $3,300
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.302 0.183 28.1% 0.343 SS $2,800 SS $4,200
8 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.260 0.098 29.3% 0.216 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
9 Adam Morgan LEFT 0.125 0.042 12.5% 0.000 P $5,700 P $6,100
Team Averages — 0.289 0.136 26.9% 0.313 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Roman Quinn, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

The Mets come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest run projection in the slate. While they may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark, they draw an exploitable matchup against Adam Morgan, who has really struggled against right-handed hitters. On the season, Morgan has allowed a .385 wOBA and 19 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.508 0.386 42.1% 0.260 3B $2,700 3B/SS $4,200
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.350 0.148 40.0% 0.414 SS $3,300 SS $4,600
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.451 0.304 49.2% 0.270 OF $3,700 OF $5,100
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.296 0.188 35.4% 0.351 OF $3,400 OF $4,200
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.286 0.201 34.2% 0.116 OF $3,000 OF $3,200
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.199 0.000 33.3% 0.465 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,000
7 James Loney LEFT 0.224 0.100 19.1% 0.355 1B $2,700 1B $3,300
8 Travis D’Arnaud RIGHT 0.215 0.000 31.0% 0.191 C $2,100 C $2,500
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.173 P $7,700 P $6,700
Team Averages — 0.281 0.147 31.6% 0.288 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – T.J. Rivera, Travis d’Arnaud

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious