MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-04 01:50:58

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Detroit
			Jakob Junis							Matt Boyd
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-115							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.334	0.328	35.2%	6.5%	17.8%	47.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.313	0.308	23.2%	9.5%	17.9%	49.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.349	38.3%	5.3%	20.2%	32.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.357	0.332	36.8%	8.6%	18.2%	36.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jakob Junis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	16	4.49	4.30	19.0%	5.9%	40.1%	36.7%	16.9%

This game is not included in the early-only slates, but it is included in the all-day slate on FanDuel, so we will cover it quickly. Junis had average numbers across the board last season, posting a 4.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. We’ve seen upside from him in the minors and the Royals are hoping that it will translate to the major league level this season. Right-handed pitchers can have success against Detroit, as they have one of the most right-handed heavy lineups in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Junis would be an intriguing tournament play in a smaller slate, but we can find better options since this game is only included in the all-day slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%

Boyd is a pitcher that I will target a handful of times throughout the year. While his 18% strikeout rate doesn’t stand out on his own, he is streaky with the strikeouts. In the right matchup, he has the potential to rack up a strikeout per inning. The problem today is that he is facing a Royals’ team that has six starters with a strikeout rate under 20% against left-handed pitching. Boyd has the same problem as Jake Junis — this game is only featured in the all-day slate and there are better pitchers available.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Boyd. Does anyone remember that video game with “Noid” where you had to deliver pizza?

Batter Grind Down

To be honest, I don’t have a lot of interest in this game as a whole. There are 14 games on the schedule, so there are great options at each and every position. With that said, my job is to break down every single game and turn over every rock to look for potential plays. Since the start of last season, Matt Boyd has allowed a .332 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Whit Merrifield and Paulo Orlando are intriguing plays, batting second and fifth, respectively.

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.341	0.355	0.024	15.7%	11.9%	16.8%	50.7%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.337	0.327	0.207	32.4%	6.1%	15.3%	39.0%	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.325	0.304	0.201	29.0%	3.7%	14.9%	41.5%	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.276	0.255	0.115	23.7%	7.1%	25.0%	47.4%	3B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
5	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.287	0.387	0.067	33.3%	0.0%	18.8%	33.3%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.237	0.290	0.189	34.8%	11.9%	33.3%	30.4%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.283	0.336	0.052	21.5%	10.5%	16.8%	51.1%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.305	0.280	0.134	30.2%	4.8%	15.2%	40.7%	SS	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Cam Gallagher		0.438	0.492	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Paulo Orlando

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are the favorites here and on paper, have an exploitable matchup against Jake Junis. While I do expect him to take a leap forward this season, he gave up a .328+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters last season. His ground ball rate against righties was awfully low, which brings home run upside in play for the likes of Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos. I’ll go as far to say that they are elite tournament plays, even in the all-day slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.203	0.260	0.081	26.6%	5.9%	26.9%	40.5%	OF	$2,400	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.336	0.319	0.131	26.5%	11.5%	19.7%	45.8%	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.294	0.374	0.146	42.0%	8.8%	20.2%	40.3%	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.329	0.356	0.191	42.4%	6.1%	22.9%	35.5%	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.307	0.362	0.132	42.4%	8.6%	14.5%	38.2%	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.280	0.296	0.119	38.5%	5.7%	26.5%	38.1%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.335	0.298	0.162	34.8%	6.6%	21.4%	48.9%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.284	0.262	0.121	28.4%	4.3%	14.8%	52.1%	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.304	0.266	0.089	33.3%	4.6%	18.5%	58.2%	2B	$2,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera (GPP), Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera (Cash), Nick Castellanos (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								NY Yankees
			Chris Archer							Jordan Montgomery
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-135							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.326	0.301	43.3%	8.5%	29.7%	43.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.299	19.7%	8.3%	16.7%	50.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.287	0.288	36.1%	5.8%	28.8%	41.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	0.298	27.8%	7.8%	23.2%	38.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:		10 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%

Let me start by saying this four-game early slate could easily end up being a two-game slate. This game and the Reds’ game could get postponed due to thunderstorms. Archer didn’t pitch great in his first start of the year, allowing four earned runs in six innings of work against the Red Sox. We know the strikeout upside is there, but we have to be selective in when we target Archer. In a matchup against the Yankees in New York, he’s an easy fade in all formats. He still has strikeout upside, but the risk outweighs the potential reward. Add in the potential delay/postponement of the game and we should look elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Archer in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 28	Salary Rank:		8 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.34	3.88	22.2%	7.9%	40.7%	26.5%	17.9%

Montgomery had a solid rookie season, especially considering the fact that he was pitching for the Yankees. We’ve seen veterans come to New York and totally blow up their careers because they couldn’t handle the pressure from the fans and media. Montgomery finished 2017 with a 4.34 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 22%. He limits hard contact and has a dream matchup against the Rays, who have a combined .264 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 22% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If this game is clear to play, Montgomery should be considered the best point-per-dollar pitcher of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are going to be a team to target pitchers against all season. If you look at their projected lineup below, seven of their starters have an xwOBA under .300 against left-handed pitching. There are entire lineups with xwOBA numbers higher than that. To make matters worse, Jordan Montgomery has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA. C.J. Cron and Wilson Ramos are deep GPP fliers, but the rest of the Rays can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.000	0.079	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	75.0%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.293	0.239	0.101	24.1%	5.5%	26.1%	61.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.285	0.259	0.137	30.2%	3.7%	32.1%	37.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.320	0.338	0.250	40.3%	6.1%	30.3%	30.6%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.324	0.325	0.143	35.1%	5.7%	11.4%	54.4%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.291	0.294	0.151	39.3%	9.3%	26.8%	40.0%	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.310	0.282	0.186	35.7%	5.4%	19.4%	46.3%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.317	0.272	0.102	16.3%	7.4%	1.9%	68.1%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,700	LF	$4,900
9	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.193	0.287	0.000	8.7%	20.0%	17.5%	47.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees were one of my favorite offenses to stack in yesterday’s early slate, but the game ended up being postponed. They are an intriguing stack again today, although the matchup is significantly more difficult. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Chris Archer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA. While that doesn’t look great on paper, this Yankees’ lineup hits the ball hard and Archer gave up a 39% hard contact rate last season. There is more upside here than people realize, but I only recommend playing Yankees in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.360	0.331	0.193	31.4%	11.3%	18.1%	42.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.433	0.439	0.355	43.9%	16.3%	30.6%	35.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.393	0.379	0.329	37.9%	10.6%	26.1%	44.7%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.358	0.294	0.234	26.4%	4.7%	11.1%	36.8%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.360	0.373	0.244	35.9%	6.3%	22.5%	43.0%	C	$3,200	C	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.363	0.363	0.195	34.1%	12.8%	16.1%	37.3%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.331	0.312	0.185	32.7%	7.1%	20.0%	48.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.306	0.331	0.267	41.2%	6.3%	40.6%	29.4%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.211	0.243	0.091	20.5%	6.8%	27.1%	50.0%	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP), Gary Sanchez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Didi Gregorius (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at San Francisco – 4:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								San Francisco
			Marco Gonzales							Ty Blach
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.360	0.256	15.6%	6.5%	23.9%	53.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.306	27.3%	5.8%	8.5%	56.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.402	0.379	33.0%	5.8%	15.1%	43.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.350	0.338	32.6%	6.4%	11.3%	43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	8	4.48	6.08	17.3%	6.0%	45.4%	29.1%	23.4%

Gonzales made eight starts last season, posting a 4.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. His ground ball rate and hard/soft contact rates are all appealing, but he is missing the one key ingredient for DFS success — strikeouts. Today’s matchup against the Giants isn’t going to help in that regard. They are consistently one of the lowest strikeout teams in baseball and their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of only 18% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on the rain in the other two games, we might be forced to play an SP2 from this game. Even if that’s the case, I prefer Blach over Gonzales.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ty Blach
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 28	Salary Rank:		19 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	5.36	4.78	10.6%	6.2%	46.7%	31.1%	18.4%

Blach had one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball last season. If I weren’t strapped for time, I would look it up, but you have to think that an 11% strikeout rate was near the very bottom. He relies on ground balls and soft contact to have success, which isn’t what we are looking for in a starting pitcher. The good news is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Mariners, who are going to be without Nelson Cruz. I don’t see a lot of strikeout upside here, but a quality start isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

Quick Breakdown: If the other two games get postponed, Blach offers decent value as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

We have two below-average starters squaring off in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I hate these situations because it makes me want to avoid the pitchers and the hitters. With only four games on the schedule (and two potentially being postponed), we don’t have the luxury of fading this game completely. In 2017, Ty Blach allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Jean Segura and Ryon Healy have the best numbers against southpaws in this lineup, but I would also consider Mitch Haniger if he is batting clean-up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.286	0.244	0.042	11.5%	1.0%	12.8%	62.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.350	0.362	0.113	38.1%	10.0%	14.3%	48.1%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.251	0.292	0.095	30.2%	5.7%	16.5%	55.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.310	0.314	0.196	26.0%	6.1%	19.4%	46.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.323	0.294	0.205	29.3%	7.1%	19.0%	33.3%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.366	0.329	0.210	30.8%	4.8%	21.4%	39.3%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.342	0.286	0.123	27.5%	5.7%	15.0%	43.1%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Marjama	RIGHT	1.980	1.650	3.000	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Marco Gonzales	LEFT								P	$5,500	P	$6,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jean Segura

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger, Ryon Healy

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants play in a pitcher’s park and have a lineup that hits for contact instead of power. They are going to be one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule night in and night out. Their matchup against Marco Gonzales is mediocre, but luckily his splits are significantly worse against right-handed hitters. In his eight starts last season, Gonzales gave up a .379 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties. Austin Jackson, Andrew McCutchen, and Buster Posey all mash left-handed pitching and make for an interesting three-man stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.415	0.367	0.209	27.2%	12.8%	17.6%	48.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.315	0.295	0.075	26.7%	7.1%	11.5%	51.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.452	0.410	0.351	43.4%	14.4%	16.3%	32.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.408	0.366	0.203	38.2%	14.9%	11.9%	38.2%	C	$2,900	1B/C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.279	0.305	0.151	35.3%	11.0%	20.5%	47.1%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.334	0.352	0.137	33.6%	9.8%	12.2%	45.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
7	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.302	0.311	0.168	32.0%	9.7%	26.0%	35.4%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.285	0.302	0.121	29.0%	7.4%	16.6%	41.5%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Ty Blach	LEFT	0.221	0.244	0.091	17.7%	0.0%	32.0%	33.3%	P	$6,400	P	$6,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Jackson, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Hunter Pence

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Miami – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								Miami
			Chris Sale							Jose Urena
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-210							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.234	0.254	17.9%	4.6%	31.1%	43.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.381	34.3%	10.0%	10.9%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.265	0.245	32.1%	5.2%	37.1%	37.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.310	29.0%	7.7%	20.3%	49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$12,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 28	Salary Rank:		1 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	2.58	2.90	36.2%	5.1%	38.7%	29.7%	18.5%

If you are playing the early slate, just lock and load Sale into all of your lineups. Yes, he is going to be highly owned, but you should only pivot away from chalk when they are viable alternatives. This early slate offers no such thing. Sale pitched well in his opener and put up a massive 36% strikeout rate in 2017. He should be able to mow through a Marlins’ lineup that no longer has Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton. Miami’s projected lineup has a combined .298 xwOBA with a 30% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Sale should be the anchor for all of your lineups in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Urena
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 28	Salary Rank:		24 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	5.19	3.82	15.6%	8.8%	43.1%	31.8%	18.6%

Urena wouldn’t be in the starting rotation for an average to above-average pitching staff. He finished 2017 with a 5.19 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 16%. He doesn’t do anything particularly well and he has to face a Red Sox offense that works counts and waits for the opposing pitcher to make mistakes. Boston has one of the lowest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching, so don’t expect many swings and misses in this one. As a massive underdog at home, you know what to do with Urena.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Urena in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have four solid bats at the top of the lineup. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, and J.D. Martinez all have a .339+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. The rest of the lineup is lacking, but I wouldn’t rule out the idea of targeting Xander Bogaerts at low ownership. As far as the splits go, Jose Urena allowed a .381 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .310 xwOBA to right-handed hitters in 2017.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.327	0.335	0.190	36.5%	9.6%	11.9%	39.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.340	0.339	0.175	35.9%	9.9%	16.6%	37.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.328	0.350	0.181	34.6%	8.0%	20.8%	42.2%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.395	0.396	0.344	46.7%	9.8%	27.1%	43.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.329	0.288	0.147	32.3%	8.1%	18.6%	46.8%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.308	0.287	0.198	34.3%	5.9%	21.3%	48.9%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.353	0.265	0.160	26.5%	3.1%	12.0%	52.8%	2B	$2,800	2B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.317	0.281	0.103	26.2%	5.1%	19.2%	47.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Chris Sale	LEFT	0.411	0.164	0.333	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	50.0%	P	$11,400	P	$12,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are a complete fade against Chris Sale. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .255 xwOBA since the start of last season. While baseball is a sport filled with variance, that doesn’t mean we should go out of our way to make bad decisions in DFS in hopes that we get lucky. Targeting hitters against elite pitchers is not a profitable long-term strategy in cash games or tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.348	0.422	0.273	23.5%	12.0%	20.0%	58.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.369	0.334	0.123	22.6%	6.4%	20.2%	43.5%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.367	0.337	0.139	30.6%	10.0%	19.2%	50.6%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.256	0.360	0.029	29.2%	2.9%	28.6%	37.5%	3B	$2,800	3B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
5	Garrett Cooper	RIGHT	0.414	0.344	0.190	35.7%	4.5%	31.8%	35.7%	OF	$2,000	1B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
6	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.283	0.289	0.076	35.1%	7.0%	19.5%	55.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.303	0.317	0.118	23.2%	10.3%	9.2%	38.2%	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Chad Wallach	RIGHT	0.115	0.220	0.000	50.0%	16.7%	50.0%	50.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.000	0.058	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	75.0%	50.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Cincinnati
			Jon Lester							Cody Reed
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-155							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.237	0.239	25.5%	2.9%	34.1%	55.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.256	0.268	9.1%	18.2%	31.8%	63.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.322	28.8%	9.3%	20.6%	43.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.386	40.6%	26.3%	17.5%	59.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%

This is the second game in the early slate that has the potential to get postponed. Keep an eye on the weather throughout the day and be ready to adjust your lineups accordingly. Lester did not pitch well in his first start of the season. He gave up seven hits, three walks, and three earned runs in only three innings of work. The worst part is that he was facing the Marlins. He’ll look to bounce back today against the Reds, but he’ll have to do it in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the clear SP1 for this slate and it’s almost impossible to play both Sale and Lester on multi-pitcher sites. Lester is a fade once again.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Cody Reed
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:
	2017	1	6.46	5.09	21.5%	24.1%	60.5%	32.6%	16.3%

Reed has a wicked slider, but he has struggled with command throughout his major league career. When he’s ahead of hitters in the count, he is an above-average strikeout pitcher. When he falls behind, he tends to give up a lot of walks. He’s a pitcher to monitor moving forward, but he’s an easy fade against a loaded Cubs’ offense. The fact that Reed posted a 13% walk rate in the minors last season is awfully troubling. We should also mention that today’s game is being playing in the Great American Ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Reed in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a sizable ballpark shift in their favor playing in Cincinnati (it took me the longest time to get this spelling right, why aren’t there two t’s and one n?). They draw a favorable matchup against Cody Reed, who has struggled with command and with right-handed hitters in his first 11 major league starts. If this game looks clear, the Cubs are the offense that I will have the most exposure to in the early slate. They are a viable stack in both cash games and tournaments. As far as individual plays, Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Addison Russell all bat from the right side and all own a .356+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.382	0.359	0.142	27.8%	10.9%	13.3%	46.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.419	0.437	0.240	36.5%	19.1%	16.0%	36.5%	3B	$4,200	3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.364	0.372	0.239	33.3%	10.3%	14.6%	44.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.379	0.381	0.233	35.2%	15.1%	18.7%	53.4%	C	$3,300	C	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.281	0.279	0.165	28.6%	15.8%	35.6%	35.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.343	0.356	0.180	31.3%	13.3%	23.8%	43.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.249	0.298	0.117	32.0%	9.5%	13.5%	51.1%	2B	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.361	0.334	0.254	41.1%	5.8%	25.9%	43.6%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.236	0.197	0.188	10.0%	9.5%	42.9%	85.7%	P	$9,100	P	$10,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Cubs are going to be popular if the weather in this game holds up. The Reds on the other hand, should fly under the radar. Jon Lester is a big name in baseball, even though he’s likely on the decline in his career. He didn’t look great in the opener and he is one of the worst in baseball at holding runners on first base. Billy Hamilton is a tremendous play here. If he gets on first base (which is always the issue), he will try to steal second and then try to steal third. Hamilton only has 19 plate appearances against Lester, yet he has stolen six bases against him. Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall are also intriguing, as they hit from the right side and both own a .360+ xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.231	0.212	0.076	15.6%	2.9%	24.0%	45.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.394	0.368	0.250	43.5%	14.9%	24.0%	40.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.411	0.397	0.256	31.8%	18.1%	16.1%	44.4%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.392	0.361	0.312	33.3%	8.8%	21.9%	40.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.299	0.234	0.153	26.0%	4.3%	29.1%	50.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.284	0.316	0.157	26.3%	11.7%	21.7%	39.5%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.331	0.313	0.221	38.3%	0.7%	21.4%	48.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.281	0.282	0.053	23.7%	5.0%	13.6%	56.6%	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Cody Reed	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,500	N/A	N/A

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 3rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Paulo Orlando

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera (GPP), Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera (Cash), Nick Castellanos (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP), Gary Sanchez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Didi Gregorius (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at San Francisco – 4:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jean Segura

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger, Ryon Healy

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Austin Jackson, Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Hunter Pence

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Miami – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW

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