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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-16 02:33:01

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Houston at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Houston Arizona
houstonmlb Brad Peacock arizonamlb Anthony Banda
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-110 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.294 33.1% 12.3% 27.6% 31.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.364 45.0% 7.7% 11.5% 26.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.256 0.266 24.2% 11.2% 28.6% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 36.4% 7.7% 33.3% 45.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Peacock
brad-peacock-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.55 3.69 22.1% 11.0% 41.2% 28.2% 10.6%
2017 13 3.83 3.07 30.3% 11.9% 39.8% 28.3% 26.4%
L30 4 3.70 4.10 25.9% 6.5% 40.3% 27.4% 23.3%

We have another single early game on the schedule, which means most of you can scroll down to the next game, as this one is only featured in the all-day slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Peacock has pitched well this season, posting a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. His numbers can be a little misleading though, as he isn’t a pitcher that lasts deep into games. He typically maxes out at around six innings thanks to a high walk rate of 12%. He draws one of his toughest matchups to date, as he squares off against the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Quick Breakdown: Peacock is pitching in a bad ballpark against a potent offense. There are better options in the all-day slate.

Anthony Banda
anthony-banda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 4.06 4.60 24.6% 7.7% 35.9% 40.5% 9.5%
L30 3 4.07 4.60 24.6% 7.7% 35.9% 40.5% 9.5%

Banda is making his fourth career major league start. He has flashed some upside in his first stint in the big leagues, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a lot of hard contact. That’s generally not the recipe for success in this ballpark, especially when you are facing the best offense in baseball. The Astros have the second highest team wOBA and the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, which is a truly impressive combination.

Quick Breakdown: Banda is a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, but let’s take a wait and see approach for now.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros struggled to get anything going offensively last night against Zack Greinke. They’ll look to bounce back today against an inexperienced Anthony Banda, who is only making his fourth big league start. The Astros ability to make good contact, while also being patient at the plate should put a lot of pressure on a young pitcher. George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Jose Altuve are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions. They all mash left-handed pitching and obviously see a ballpark boost playing in Chase Field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.449 0.427 0.310 36.1% 11.8% 15.1% 39.8% OF $3,900 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.415 0.359 0.221 27.8% 13.1% 12.3% 29.2% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.408 0.325 0.222 26.3% 9.9% 11.6% 49.5% 2B $4,300 2B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.289 0.288 0.142 33.3% 4.9% 13.1% 54.5% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.356 0.279 0.228 26.4% 8.7% 19.2% 48.6% SS $3,500 OF/SS $4,600 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.231 0.253 0.095 37.3% 4.0% 28.7% 38.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.319 0.285 0.185 22.6% 9.8% 31.5% 28.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Juan Centeno LEFT 0.438 0.506 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Brad Peacock RIGHT 0.000 0.113 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $8,400 P $9,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

On paper, a matchup against Brad Peacock is less than ideal. He has a low ERA, a low SIERA, and an elite strikeout rate. We aren’t going to feel comfortable targeting any Diamondbacks’ hitters, but the spot is better than it looks on paper. Peacock has a high walk rate and Arizona gets to face him at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I don’t stack offenses against high-strikeout pitchers (too many unproductive outs), but Jake Lamb, Paul Goldschmidt, and J.D. Martinez are all viable one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.366 0.322 0.177 35.7% 7.3% 14.6% 54.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.334 0.311 0.160 38.9% 6.6% 21.4% 43.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.407 0.382 0.286 36.5% 14.9% 20.4% 39.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.431 0.403 0.293 44.4% 14.7% 22.6% 44.8% 1B $4,500 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.365 0.386 0.287 44.2% 12.4% 26.0% 43.5% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.336 0.323 0.165 40.7% 12.3% 22.7% 39.3% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.327 0.327 0.175 28.0% 9.7% 19.4% 35.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.305 0.291 0.244 38.7% 8.4% 37.1% 37.3% C $2,600 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Anthony Banda LEFT 0.000 0.043 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $5,900 P $5,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Angels at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

LA Angels Washington
laangelsmlb Tyler Skaggs washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.316 24.2% 8.1% 19.5% 45.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.293 25.0% 7.4% 20.1% 54.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.343 30.9% 10.1% 23.7% 41.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.312 33.0% 8.8% 23.2% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Skaggs
tyler-skaggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.36 4.17 22.8% 10.5% 43.0% 33.3% 21.5%
2017 7 4.29 3.63 22.6% 8.5% 42.3% 24.1% 25.0%
L30 2 4.97 2.61 18.6% 11.6% 50.0% 13.3% 30.0%

Skaggs has one of those names that’s fun to say. I have no choice but to draw it out as long as possible.

Skaaaaaaaaaaggs.

He hasn’t allowed many runs in his two starts since coming back from injury, but has a 4.97 SIERA with a walk rate of 12%. In order to target Skaggs, we need him to have a high strikeout prop, because we know that he’s likely going to give up a couple of runs. I’m not seeing much upside tonight, as he takes on a Nationals’ offense that is ranked fifth in team wOBA and 15th in strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Skaggs is pitching on the road against a talented offense. The Vegas line looks strange to me, but that’s not enough justification for me to target him tonight.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.96 4.57 22.4% 7.7% 47.6% 32.7% 18.1%
2017 23 4.39 2.59 22.7% 9.5% 45.5% 29.2% 21.6%
L30 4 4.36 2.28 20.2% 6.4% 42.9% 19.2% 20.5%

The Nationals are one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws, they are playing at home, and they have a pitcher with a 2.59 ERA on the mound. Yet somehow, they are barely favored against the Angels. Something about this line is fishy, which makes me want to steer clear of Gonzalez. We’ve been hinting at regression for most of the season now, as his SIERA is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA. The strikeout and hard contact rates are appealing, but the Angels are one of the toughest teams in baseball to strikeout.

Quick Breakdown: I’m worried about Gonzalez’s strikeout upside in this matchup. I’m also worried about the funky Vegas line.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

When it comes to the Angels, there is usually only one hitter that we need to cover. Mike Trout is arguably the best hitter in baseball and he mashes both left and right-handed pitching. He also tends to play well in difficult matchups, which makes him a great play almost every single night. I’m certainly on board with Trout as a one-off tonight against Gio Gonzalez, who has allowed a .312 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons. C.J. Cron is the only other batter in this lineup with good numbers against southpaws, but he’s too expensive given all of the great first base options we have to choose from.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.287 0.307 0.055 38.6% 7.1% 21.4% 55.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.424 0.394 0.231 32.5% 23.2% 17.4% 50.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
3 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.380 0.399 0.352 35.9% 6.9% 25.9% 25.6% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
4 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.332 0.323 0.147 26.4% 12.6% 10.9% 49.5% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
5 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.292 0.283 0.185 20.5% 14.1% 17.2% 59.1% 3B $2,300 1B $2,600 1B $5,200
6 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.294 0.323 0.145 28.4% 10.3% 17.6% 46.3% OF $2,900 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.319 0.296 0.112 29.2% 7.8% 24.3% 52.4% C $2,400 C $2,500 C $4,800
8 Cliff Pennington SWITCH 0.270 0.261 0.027 32.1% 0.0% 24.3% 40.7% 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,100 2B $4,200
9 Tyler Skaggs LEFT P $6,600 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Tyler Skaggs is a pitcher that struggles in two areas: walks and facing right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, the Nationals have a right-handed heavy lineup that is good against lefties and that draws a lot of walks. In theory, this should be a good matchup for the Nationals, but I keep coming back to the fact that they are barely favored in this game. The right-handed hitters are certainly worth a look here, but I may end up having less exposure to this offense than I originally anticipated before seeing the line and total for the game.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.413 0.374 0.273 32.1% 8.2% 34.7% 32.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.428 0.392 0.213 25.0% 7.8% 13.7% 54.1% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.442 0.424 0.364 44.7% 9.0% 15.0% 40.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.383 0.349 0.211 37.0% 7.1% 17.3% 35.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.463 0.435 0.333 36.7% 15.9% 11.0% 28.3% 3B $3,300 3B $4,800 3B $9,300
6 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.412 0.447 0.185 42.2% 11.5% 14.8% 48.9% OF $2,300 2B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.331 0.284 0.200 17.5% 8.9% 19.6% 52.5% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.402 0.344 0.240 37.8% 5.7% 24.5% 56.8% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.088 0.096 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 40.0% 16.7% P $8,900 P $11,500 P $22,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Difo, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets NY Yankees
nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-132 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.300 31.9% 7.8% 23.7% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.307 27.7% 7.0% 20.6% 54.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.286 33.2% 5.8% 29.1% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.324 34.6% 9.2% 20.7% 55.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 23 3.44 3.21 29.2% 7.5% 45.1% 33.9% 20.7%
L30 5 3.21 2.23 29.9% 5.5% 42.0% 30.9% 17.3%

DeGrom is the most talented pitcher in the slate, but he has a lot working against him tonight. For starters, he has been dealing with a triceps injury. With the Mets out of playoff contention, they will play it careful with their prized possession the rest of the way (at least they should). The other issue is the matchup. DeGrom has to face a talented Yankees’ offense and he has to pitch in Yankee Stadium, which is much more of a hitter’s park than Citi Field. We’ve seen the Yankees struggle against elite arms this season, but in a 15-game slate, I don’t like taking unnecessary risks. For that reason, I will be avoiding deGrom in cash games.

Quick Breakdown: I will be taking a shot or two on deGrom in tournaments (potentially more if his projected ownership is low), but will be fading him in cash games.

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.32 5.69 18.2% 8.1% 53.9% 33.6% 16.1%
2017 18 3.80 3.39 23.5% 8.2% 56.3% 28.3% 17.9%
L30 4 3.79 2.22 25.5% 10.4% 61.2% 23.5% 25.0%

Gray was a really solid pickup for the Yankees. We’ve seen a number of good pitchers come to New York and immediately struggle pitching in this ballpark and in this division, but Gray has the tools to pitch well anywhere. The combination of a 24% strikeout rate and a 56% ground ball rate is tough no matter where you are pitching or who you are facing. Gray’s reverse splits may actually come in handy tonight, as three of the Mets’ best hitters are left-handed.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, I prefer Gray over deGrom tonight. I’m not sure if that’s a hot take or not, but I’ll take the discount with Gray.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets may see a favorable ballpark shift and they may get to use the DH tonight, but this is not an exploitable matchup. As mentioned above, Sonny Gray has an elite ground ball rate and an above-average ground ball rate. Since the start of last season, he has held left-handed hitters to a .307 xwOBA and a 28% hard contact rate. With his reverse splits, there is some appeal in using Yoenis Cespedes as a one-off tournament target. He will certainly be low owned and he has a 42% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.355 0.338 0.261 32.8% 14.8% 21.9% 30.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.306 0.343 0.156 36.5% 9.8% 14.9% 42.3% 3B $2,700 2B/SS $2,900 SS $5,700
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.352 0.335 0.220 42.0% 5.4% 17.2% 35.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.427 0.398 0.307 40.9% 14.8% 22.0% 36.0% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.341 0.325 0.189 34.8% 6.0% 14.5% 36.1% 2B $3,000 1B/3B $4,100 3B $8,100
6 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.175 0.254 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 10.0% 55.6% 1B $2,300 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.329 0.256 0.258 30.4% 0.0% 25.0% 47.8% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.251 0.281 0.153 34.7% 4.1% 17.6% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.268 0.278 0.141 26.5% 7.2% 13.8% 37.8% SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

I’m really glad that we have a full slate on tap tonight because we don’t have to take a stand in some of these hard to predict matchups. We have a very good pitcher in Jacob deGrom and a very good offense in the Yankees. If this game was played ten times, there is a good chance that we’d see deGrom pitch well in some and the Yankees’ offense to perform well in others. With so many options to choose from in a slate this size, I will be watching this one from the sidelines. In other words, I will be fading both deGrom and the Yankees.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.359 0.343 0.208 34.5% 12.4% 18.6% 40.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.382 0.332 0.224 30.2% 16.9% 16.9% 44.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.426 0.420 0.317 45.1% 15.4% 32.1% 36.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.379 0.287 0.243 27.0% 3.6% 13.2% 40.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.359 0.360 0.219 36.0% 7.7% 24.3% 44.4% C $3,000 C $4,000 C $7,800
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.324 0.345 0.184 28.6% 13.2% 22.2% 38.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.327 0.320 0.135 25.6% 9.7% 14.1% 47.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.352 0.329 0.139 31.8% 12.1% 24.9% 43.7% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.282 0.246 0.088 19.9% 2.4% 13.7% 50.0% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
tampabaymlb Blake Snell torontomlb Marco Estrada
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-122 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.289 31.0% 12.4% 26.3% 51.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.273 26.2% 8.7% 23.9% 34.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.325 32.4% 12.6% 21.3% 36.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.320 33.0% 9.7% 22.7% 29.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.53 3.54 24.4% 12.7% 36.5% 31.4% 22.2%
2017 15 5.19 4.69 19.6% 12.4% 42.2% 33.1% 19.9%
L30 5 4.49 4.39 20.5% 8.0% 45.6% 26.3% 21.3%

Snell has shown some signs of life in his last five starts. The two statistics that I quote the most often in this article are SIERA and strikeout rate, but the most promising stat for Snell in his last five outings is his 8% walk rate. Giving out free base passes has always been his biggest weakness. It drives up his pitch count, it forces him to pitch from the stretch, and it lowers his strikeout rate when he falls behind in counts. He’s an easy fade in tonight’s start against a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup, but keep an eye on his walks.

Quick Breakdown: If Snell has good command again tonight, we might be able to use him in his next start.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 24 4.48 4.85 23.8% 9.5% 30.8% 27.7% 20.0%
L30 6 5.33 3.93 20.4% 11.6% 27.3% 21.0% 25.0%

Estrada has been consistent with his inconsistency this season if that makes any sense. Basically, he’s pitched well in large stretches and he’s pitched poorly in large stretches. His current form matters more than most when it comes to predicting his fantasy production. After a terrible stretch, he has bounced back nicely in his last three starts. During that stretch, he has only walked four batters while racking up 18 strikeouts. He is the ultimate boom or bust play tonight against the Rays, who are ranked 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. For what it’s worth, Estrada has pitched very well against the Rays in his career.

Quick Breakdown: It scares me, but Estrada is one of my favorite plays in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Even though I plan to have more shares of Marco Estrada than of the Rays’ offense, I will certainly have some of both. The Rays have plenty of firepower in their lineup and we have seen Estrada get shelled on a number of occasions this season. I basically see two scenarios here. Estrada will either dominate or the Rays will get to him early and score a bunch of runs. It makes sense to have exposure to both sides of this matchup. In terms of splits, give an edge to the right-handed hitters, as Estrada has some hefty reverse splits.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.347 0.316 0.230 36.6% 6.2% 23.1% 38.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.370 0.381 0.278 42.4% 14.0% 24.8% 27.9% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.336 0.313 0.182 31.7% 5.3% 14.2% 43.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.368 0.378 0.281 40.8% 14.1% 24.8% 31.3% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.391 0.377 0.307 39.2% 13.1% 29.4% 39.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.297 0.315 0.115 35.3% 20.0% 27.3% 52.6% 2B $2,800 2B $2,800 2B $5,400
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.162 0.269 0.097 32.1% 2.6% 26.0% 47.2% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,300
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.229 0.257 0.051 27.1% 1.9% 21.9% 49.2% SS $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.316 0.249 0.094 21.2% 10.0% 20.5% 53.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Douza

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

I don’t understand how the Blue Jays have so many batters in their lineup with good numbers offensively because every time they are in a favorable matchup, they seem to put up one or two runs. They are a lot like the Tigers in that we can never rely on them, even in the best possible matchups. With all of that said, this team hits a lot of home runs and tonight they are facing a pitcher with one of the highest walk rates in baseball. This can turn single shots into two, three, and even four run homers. This is far from my favorite stack tonight, but I’m very interested in Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.272 0.275 0.141 25.7% 12.9% 25.9% 45.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.382 0.378 0.300 44.7% 18.0% 19.7% 36.8% 3B $4,100 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.491 0.457 0.303 41.0% 13.5% 11.5% 35.9% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.408 0.379 0.227 44.0% 5.8% 21.4% 60.0% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.338 0.320 0.273 36.0% 5.3% 22.7% 40.0% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.374 0.352 0.215 35.2% 7.6% 14.4% 35.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
7 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.230 0.301 0.000 18.2% 21.1% 15.8% 45.5% 2B $2,100 1B/2B $3,100 1B $6,000
8 Rafael Lopez LEFT N/A N/A
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.280 0.271 0.046 14.9% 11.2% 20.4% 42.4% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,100 2B $4,000

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

San Francisco Miami
sanfranciscomlb Madison Bumgarner miamimlb Dan Straily
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-100 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.235 0.261 26.2% 5.3% 30.0% 33.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.290 0.308 30.2% 10.5% 20.8% 34.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.285 33.6% 5.7% 25.8% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.314 35.4% 6.1% 21.1% 31.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
madison-bumgarner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.36 2.74 27.5% 5.9% 39.6% 31.6% 19.4%
2017 10 3.78 2.71 23.4% 4.5% 41.8% 34.4% 19.3%
L30 6 4.02 2.52 22.3% 5.1% 38.7% 34.5% 19.5%

Bumgarner hasn’t had an elite strikeout rate this season, but he’s still an above-average pitcher. In ten outings, he has a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 5%. Tonight’s matchup against the Marlins is an interesting one, as they have some very good and some very bad hitters against left-handed pitching. If Bumgarner can pitch around the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto, he will be in great shape. That’s a big if though, which makes me a little hesitant to use Bumgarner at this price point.

Quick Breakdown: The upside is certainly there for Bumgarner, but he is extremely expensive. I don’t have him as a core play in this slate.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 24 4.35 3.74 21.6% 6.7% 34.4% 34.0% 20.6%
L30 5 4.84 5.47 18.0% 6.6% 30.2% 31.5% 19.6%

Straily is nearly half the price of Bumgarner tonight on DraftKings, even though the two have similar strikeout rates and the game is basically set as a pick ‘em. Right off the bat, it’s hard not to like Straily over Bumgarner, at least on DraftKings. Straily has good numbers at home and while he is facing a low-strikeout offense, the Giants have the lowest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Without Brandon Belt, the Giants have little to no home run power in their lineup, which bodes well for Straily in this big ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll take Straily over Bumgarner at their respective price points all day long.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

We have 14 games on the schedule tonight and every single one of them have a higher total than this one. Basically, this shouldn’t be our first stop when selecting hitters. The Giants are the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching, they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and they are facing a fly-ball pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. I will be taking a hard pass on the Giants tonight and the more I think about it, the more I like Dan Straily as an SP2.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.337 0.332 0.178 25.9% 6.4% 12.2% 39.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.263 0.295 0.127 32.4% 6.5% 21.8% 50.5% SS $2,600 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
3 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.281 0.270 0.105 28.0% 4.9% 22.7% 61.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.343 0.363 0.119 30.0% 10.0% 11.0% 44.8% C $3,100 1B/C $3,800 C $7,500
5 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.307 0.337 0.192 43.4% 6.5% 22.4% 44.7% 3B $2,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.274 0.263 0.159 24.0% 6.4% 40.4% 44.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
7 Ryder Jones LEFT 0.220 0.232 0.103 23.3% 2.4% 22.0% 33.3% 1B $2,300 1B/3B $2,000 3B $3,900
8 Kelby Tomlinson RIGHT 0.277 0.244 0.082 25.0% 7.6% 25.8% 51.2% 2B $2,000 3B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400
9 Madison Bumgarner LEFT 0.253 0.290 0.231 12.5% 7.1% 35.7% 37.5% P $10,300 P $12,700 P $24,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami

Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been quite as sharp this season. His velocity has taken a dip and so has his strikeout rate. He’s still not a pitcher that I want to actively target hitters against, but he’s not one that I refuse to take anyone against either. Giancarlo Stanton hit yet another home run last night and currently owns a .416 xwOBA with a .360 ISO against southpaws this season. In his career, he is 8-for-16 with six extra-base hits against Bumgarner. J.T. Realmuto is also intriguing, as he quietly has a .401 xwOBA against lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.271 0.236 0.032 10.1% 1.5% 12.2% 67.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.403 0.416 0.360 36.8% 17.1% 17.1% 45.6% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.337 0.349 0.153 31.1% 5.8% 17.5% 56.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.335 0.327 0.101 36.2% 11.0% 20.0% 53.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.417 0.401 0.253 34.9% 13.5% 13.5% 39.7% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.240 0.274 0.109 37.9% 6.1% 34.7% 51.7% 1B $2,100 1B $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.377 0.355 0.113 23.8% 6.5% 17.7% 42.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.329 0.332 0.105 27.3% 7.1% 11.9% 33.3% SS $2,200 SS $2,200 2B $4,400
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.000 0.055 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $7,300 P $6,500 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious