MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-20 02:17:06

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					NY Yankees
			Vance Worley					Nathan Eovaldi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -110					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.342	5	16.4%	10.6%	SP vs. Left	0.356	13	18.1%	9.1%
SP vs. Right	0.309	5	16.1%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.303	16	18.8%	5.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Vance Worley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		11.1	FPPG:		5.6
					Pitcher Rating:		38.4	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	0	0.0	5.58	4.26	3.9%	7.7%	3.2%	52.2%	26.1%	30.4%
2016	2	352.0	4.21	2.87	16.9%	7.5%	6.1%	47.7%	28.2%	32.9%
2015	8	142.9	4.28	4.02	15.8%	6.8%	6.0%	46.2%	32.9%	29.0%

Worley has done most of his work out of the bullpen this season and will only be making his third start of the year. His numbers are mediocre at best, especially for a reliever. In 20 appearances, he has a a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.9%. He has an extremely low swinging strike rate and he is facing a Yankees’ team that is tough to strikeout. As a team, the Yankees have the fifth lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Nathan Eovaldi
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		23.9	FPPG:		11.5
					Pitcher Rating:		50.3	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	3	129.0	5.67	5.79	13.0%	13.0%	9.3%	50.0%	31.9%	35.1%
2016	16	102.8	4.22	5.11	19.2%	7.6%	9.0%	50.7%	30.6%	33.9%
2015	27	97.7	3.99	4.20	18.0%	7.3%	8.7%	52.2%	26.0%	28.0%

Eovaldi looked like he was turning a corner earlier in the season, but has been downright awful over the last month of play. In his last three starts, he has a 5.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He may induce more ground balls than fly balls, but when batters get it in the air, it is usually trouble. In only 16 starts this season, he has given up 19 home runs. Until he can flash some form, he can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball, especially when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. They come into tonight’s game with the 11th highest implied team total, as they square off against the struggling Nathan Eovaldi in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. In the last two seasons, Eovaldi has allowed a .353 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.348 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.00 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.69 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.341	0.210	0.300	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.377	0.239	0.390	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,400
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.383	0.239	0.216	3B	$3,900	3B/SS	$4,100
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.390	0.316	0.290	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,000
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.351	0.210	0.467	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.326	0.167	0.145	C	$3,300	C	$3,800
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.346	0.248	0.517	3B	$3,300	1B	$4,100
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.270	0.117	0.456	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400
9	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.269	0.072	0.244	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.202	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Chris Davis, Matt Wieters

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are small favorites tonight in what is expected to be a high scoring game. They may not have the best numbers against right-handed pitching as a whole, but they draw a favorable matchup against Vance Worley. In the last two seasons, Worley has allowed a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters. That bodes well for the Yankees, whose lineup consists primarily of lefties.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.81 (8 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.329	0.140	0.334	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,000
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.312	0.106	0.286	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,600
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.354	0.206	0.287	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.332	0.211	0.354	C	$3,300	C	$4,300
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.347	0.273	0.152	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,300
6	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.323	0.197	0.221	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,000
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.316	0.149	0.459	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,600
8	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.290	0.126	0.352	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
9	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.309	0.119	0.426	3B	$2,600	3B	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.170	0.319	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran (DK), Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran (FD), Mark Teixeira

Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}GREEN%

LA Dodgers at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	K%
LA Dodgers					Washington
			Scott Kazmir			Reynaldo Lopez
			LEFT			RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline			Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -105			9.0
SP vs. Left	0.309	11	15.9%	5.7%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.304	24	24.2%	9.2%	SP vs. Right

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Scott Kazmir
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		28.8	FPPG:		14.7
					Pitcher Rating:		61.4	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	4	94.8	3.86	4.05	25.6%	8.9%	8.7%	40.4%	33.3%	29.3%
2016	18	95.3	3.98	4.52	25.0%	9.2%	10.2%	41.0%	37.2%	23.5%
2015	31	94.9	4.10	3.10	20.3%	7.7%	10.3%	42.9%	37.3%	25.7%

Kazmir is one of those pitchers that I never seem to be on the right side of. He has an attractive 25% strikeout rate, but he struggles with consistency start to start. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Nationals, who are ranked second in team wOBA (.347) and first in team ISO (.208) against left-handed pitching. Kazmir may be able to rack up some strikeouts in this matchup, but I like the Nationals chances to get to him a bit. Even though pitching options are limited tonight, I will be looking elsewhere.

Statistics	K%	SS%	GB%	HH%
Reynaldo Lopez
	FanDuel		DraftKings
	Salary:	$7,000	Salary:	$4,000
	FPPG:	0.0	FPPG:	0.0
	Pitcher Rating:	55.6	Pitcher Rank:	16

Lopez played in the Rising Stars game during All-Star Weekend and has been called up to make his major league debut tonight against the Dodgers. In fact, this is only his third career start above Double-A. He has shown nice upside in the minors this season, posting a 3.03 FIP with a strikeout rate of 30.4% in his 14 Double-A starts. It’s always difficult to predict how pitchers will fare in their debuts though, and more often than not it doesn’t end well. You can take a shot on him in GPPs (especially on DraftKings), but he’s too much of a wildcard to use in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are small favorites tonight against the rookie, Reynaldo Lopez. As I mentioned above, this will be the major league debut for the young right-hander. It’s always difficult to predict what will happen in these debuts, so usually I like to avoid the situation altogether. However, the Dodgers make an interesting stack in GPPs and you can target a hitter or two in cash games if the price is right.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.27 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.53 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.308	0.134	0.362	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,900
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.404	0.241	0.341	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,900
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.377	0.214	0.389	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,100
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.350	0.189	0.428	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,400
5	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.327	0.200	0.499	C	$3,200	C	$4,500
6	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.318	0.116	0.494	2B	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,700
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.311	0.141	0.326	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,400
8	Andrew Toles	LEFT	0.277	0.071	0.277	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800
9	Scott Kazmir	LEFT	0.168	0.000	0.000	P	$8,400	P	$7,600
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.145	0.346	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. Their right-handed bats all crush lefties and their left-handed bats can hold their own. They come into tonight’s game with a mediocre run projection, as they square off against Scott Kazmir at home. Over the last two seasons, Kazmir has allowed 35 home runs – 11 to left-handed hitters and 24 to right-handed hitters.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.208 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.395	0.056	0.176	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,200
2	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.310	0.172	0.497	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,900
3	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.392	0.270	0.298	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500
4	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.392	0.234	0.276	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700
5	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.347	0.087	0.311	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,000
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.297	0.163	0.233	C	$2,500	C	$3,800
7	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.352	0.233	0.227	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,400
8	Clint Robinson	LEFT	0.379	0.040	0.278	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,000
9	Reynaldo Lopez	RIGHT				P	$7,000	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.358	0.157	0.287	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Philadelphia
			Jose Urena					Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -135					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.354	5	6.6%	10.2%	SP vs. Left	0.301	8	25.4%	9.5%
SP vs. Right	0.354	2	14.0%	8.7%	SP vs. Right	0.317	6	28.8%	7.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Urena
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		3.6	FPPG:		1.1
					Pitcher Rating:		37.9	Pitcher Rank:		23
2016	0	0.0	4.97	7.52	12.1%	10.1%	10.7%	49.3%	25.3%	29.0%
2015	9	110.8	5.29	5.25	10.2%	9.1%	8.0%	48.1%	31.8%	29.8%

Urena is making his first start of the season. In nine stars a year ago, he posted a 5.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 10.2%. He hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout upside, even in the minors. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies, but he is still a risky fantasy option. If he doesn’t get more than a few strikeouts, his mistakes will be magnified. The fact that he is an underdog against a bad Phillies’ team says a lot.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Vince Velasquez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,700
					FPPG:		34.9	FPPG:		18.8
					Pitcher Rating:		84.6	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	3	92.7	3.15	2.12	28.6%	5.7%	13.7%	40.9%	29.5%	26.1%
2016	15	87.0	3.49	3.32	28.4%	8.0%	11.7%	36.0%	40.9%	27.1%
2015	7	139.4	3.74	4.37	25.1%	9.1%	10.5%	31.3%	46.7%	27.3%

We have an interesting slate tonight when it comes to pitching. The two aces (Syndergaard and Arrieta) are squaring off against one another, so you can’t count on a win for either pitcher. If you are chasing the win, there are a number of mid-range options in play. Velasquez deserves consideration in all formats. He has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 3.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.6%. The Marlins don’t have the highest k-rate against right-handed pitching, but we typically worry less about that when we are dealing with a high strikeout pitcher. Dollar for dollar, Velasquez is one of the top pitching options available tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins were able to beat the Phillies in extra innings last night, but draw a much tougher matchup tonight against Vince Velasquez. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Velasquez has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA. Giancarlo Stanton is still too cheap on FanDuel and is worth a look in tournaments. The rest of the Marlins can be avoided.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.79 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.317	0.126	0.300	C	$2,900	C	$4,800
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.309	0.093	0.410	3B	$3,100	3B	$2,900
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.372	0.154	0.380	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,800
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.355	0.261	0.565	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.309	0.142	0.280	OF	$3,800	OF	$2,800
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.374	0.187	0.238	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,200
7	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.245	0.086	0.243	1B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,000
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.272	0.084	0.215	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,400
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.073	0.000		P	$5,500	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.126	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but draw one of the top matchups on the board. Jose Urena is a low strikeout pitcher that hasn’t had any success at the major league level. Philadelphia has a low run projection, but I like their offense as a whole in this one. The sample size is small (nine starts), but Urena has allowed a .354 wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.60 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.353	0.145	0.232	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,600
2	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.289	0.157	0.320	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
3	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.311	0.174	0.267	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.348	0.211	0.403	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,800
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.276	0.217	0.635	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,900
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.296	0.150	0.342	C	$3,300	C	$4,100
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.290	0.124	0.289	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,900
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.296	0.087	0.296	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,700
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.185	0.000	0.000	P	$8,600	P	$9,700
	Team Averages	—	0.294	0.141	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco (FD)

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cody Asche, Maikel Franco (DK), Tommy Joseph

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Pittsburgh
			Junior Guerra					Jameson Taillon
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -150					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.283	4	22.1%	10.4%	SP vs. Left	0.356	2	14.5%	4.0%
SP vs. Right	0.287	6	21.3%	5.5%	SP vs. Right	0.287	2	26.3%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Junior Guerra
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		34.7	FPPG:		18.7
					Pitcher Rating:		62.0	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	4	107.0	3.56	1.61	25.2%	7.5%	11.2%	52.9%	30.0%	29.6%
2016	13	95.3	4.15	3.06	22.0%	7.9%	11.1%	43.7%	37.4%	36.0%
2015	0	0.0	3.28	6.75	16.7%	5.6%	10.6%	57.1%	21.4%	21.4%

Guerra has been in great form over the last month of play, posting a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2%. He has been able to induce a lot of ground balls recently, which has helped lower his hard hit contact rate. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Pirates, who are ranked 14th in team wOBA (.317) against right-handed pitching. Given the fact that he is a sizable underdog on the road, he can be avoided in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jameson Taillon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$8,800
					FPPG:		27.0	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		75.2	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	3	83.3	3.59	5.79	20.6%	3.2%	6.8%	43.8%	25.0%	35.4%
2016	5	86.4	3.75	3.86	18.4%	4.4%	6.7%	51.8%	22.4%	35.6%

Taillon missed a couple of starts with a shoulder injury, but will get the nod tonight against the Brewers. He has pitched well in his first five major league starts, posting a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.4% and a walk rate of 4.4%. I wish he was a little cheaper tonight, because he draws a great matchup against the Brewers. On the season, Milwaukee is ranked 22nd or worse in team wOBA (.307), team ISO (.145), and team strikeout rate (26.2%). At his price, I see Taillon more as a GPP play tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers had a decent month of June, but have been ice cold at the plate over the last couple of weeks. They are now ranked 26th in runs scored per game and they come into tonight’s game with the third lowest implied team total. Jameson Taillon is still inexperienced at the major league level, but I’m not interested in any Brewers’ hitters here.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.2% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.94 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.71 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.335	0.109	0.374	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,600
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.308	0.131	0.304	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,100
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.352	0.197	0.196	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.351	0.164	0.377	C	$3,900	C	$4,200
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.325	0.248	0.330	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,200
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.302	0.171	0.186	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,800
7	Will Middlebrooks	RIGHT	0.239	0.121	0.201	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,300
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.257	0.066	0.181	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,700
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.228	0.059	0.530	P	$8,300	P	$10,400
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.141	0.298	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

If you take a look at the “wOBA L14” column below, you will see how ice cold the Pirates have been at the plate recently. They are sizable favorites tonight against Junior Guerra, but the matchup doesn’t look that great on paper. In 13 starts this season, Guerra has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. With so many great matchups in tonight’s slate, I see the Pirates as secondary plays.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.29 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.343	0.144	0.257	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,500
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.342	0.165	0.258	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.355	0.189	0.325	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.360	0.197	0.243	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,200
5	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.353	0.156	0.303	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,200
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.291	0.099	0.203	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,300
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.274	0.076	0.344	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.064	0.014	0.151	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$7,200	P	$8,800
	Team Averages	—	0.265	0.116	0.261	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					Detroit
			Tommy Milone					Anibal Sanchez
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -140					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.288	5	18.6%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.320	18	22.5%	10.3%
SP vs. Right	0.340	19	15.7%	6.7%	SP vs. Right	0.379	28	17.8%	6.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tommy Milone
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,200
					FPPG:		17.8	FPPG:		7.7
					Pitcher Rating:		35.3	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	4	83.0	5.22	4.50	10.6%	8.2%	7.5%	49.3%	23.9%	27.9%
2016	8	94.3	4.64	5.23	15.3%	7.7%	8.0%	48.9%	27.0%	34.3%
2015	23	89.9	4.39	3.92	16.8%	6.6%	8.1%	41.6%	35.4%	26.0%

Milone has really struggled this season, posting a 4.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.3%. He has really struggled with right-handed hitters in his career, which does not bode well for his matchup tonight against the Tigers. He checks in as a sizable underdog in a game that features an over/under of 10.0 runs. I know Ricky Nolasco had some success against the Tigers last night, but I have a hard time seeing a repeat performance from Milone.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Anibal Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$4,300
					FPPG:		15.2	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		57.7	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	3	125.0	4.52	8.69	19.8%	9.9%	9.1%	39.7%	31.7%	35.9%
2016	14	105.0	4.82	6.75	19.0%	10.5%	9.1%	39.8%	41.4%	33.3%
2015	25	101.3	4.03	4.99	20.9%	7.4%	9.3%	40.0%	39.1%	27.1%

Sanchez is having his worst season as a professional. In 14 starts, he has a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 10.5%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 33.3%. That’s not a great combination for a pitcher and it helps explain why he has allowed so many home runs. Sanchez is cheap and is a favorite tonight, but I’m not taking the bait. The Twins have a better offense than most people realize.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins were shutout last night, which was a surprise given how high their team total was. They have a chance at redemption tonight, as they square off against Anibal Sanchez, who has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .379 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. During that stretch, Sanchez has also given up 46 home runs in only 39 starts.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.43 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.77 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.340	0.131	0.293	SS	$3,200	3B/SS	$4,500
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.323	0.112	0.404	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,300
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.364	0.238	0.343	OF	$3,800	3B/OF	$4,400
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.316	0.193	0.262	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.323	0.264	0.296	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,800
6	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.267	0.154	0.554	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600
7	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.339	0.156	0.404	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
8	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.302	0.182	0.423	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
9	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.276	0.088	0.410	C	$2,500	C	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.169	0.377	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are my favorite offense to target outside of the two teams playing in Coors Field. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth highest run projection and they draw a terrific matchup against Tommy Milone. In the last two seasons, Milone has allowed a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters, which plays right into the Tigers’ hand. They will likely have nine right-handed batters in their lineup tonight.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.8% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.76 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.23 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.375	0.190	0.392	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,000
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.354	0.124	0.309	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.354	0.166	0.225	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,300
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.368	0.161	0.199	C	$3,100	1B	$3,400
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.371	0.230	0.472	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,300
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.276	0.139	0.294	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.369	0.238	0.188	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
8	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.227	0.048	0.343	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,500
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.355	0.125	0.256	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.339	0.158	0.298	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 19th

Stackability Rating System:

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Chris Davis, Matt Wieters

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran (DK), Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran (FD), Mark Teixeira

Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}*GREEN*%

LA Dodgers at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco (FD)

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cody Asche, Maikel Franco (DK), Tommy Joseph

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton, James McCann

Stackability – GREEN

Who do you like for tonight’s games? Share your thoughts in the RotoGrinders Forums

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Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}GREEN%

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%