MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-31 19:12:14

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at San Diego – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
San Francisco								San Diego
			Dereck Rodriguez							Clayton Richard
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SD -100							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.350	45.9%	0.68	16.1%	36.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.306	31.0%	0.31	18.6%	75.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.286	39.0%	0.56	21.5%	44.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.359	42.1%	1.05	16.6%	52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dereck Rodriguez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:				Salary:
	Salary Rank:			6 of 29	Salary Rank:			of 29	Salary Rank:

	2018	9	4.25	2.75	19.0%	6.1%	40.6%	42.2%	12.8%	92.1	8.8%
	L14	2	4.03	2.19	20.4%	4.1%	29.4%	57.1%	8.6%	91.7	6.5%

This is the only early game on the schedule, so if you are reading this, you are likely playing in the showdown slate. That’s good news because this game would be an easy fade if it was included in the main slate. Rodriguez is a talented young pitcher with decent numbers in his first nine major league starts, posting a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 6%. He is playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and facing a strikeout-happy Padres’ offense. San Diego’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .304 with a strikeout rate of 25% against righties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez is viable in the showdown slate, but avoid him if you are playing the all-day slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:				Salary:
	Salary Rank:			19 of 29	Salary Rank:			of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.06	4.79	17.6%	6.9%	59.2%	35.0%	17.3%	90.7	8.6%
	2018	22	4.44	5.05	17.1%	9.4%	57.5%	39.8%	19.8%	90.2	9.0%
	L14	3	6.27	9.64	12.3%	16.9%	57.8%	28.3%	23.9%	90.6	5.6%

At one point earlier in the season, Richard had a decent SIERA and a league-average strikeout rate. His numbers have taken a big hit since then, as he now owns a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He still has an elite ground ball rate, but that’s a better weapon in real baseball than it is in daily fantasy baseball. The Giants aren’t the most talented offense in baseball, but they have some good right-handed hitters in their lineup (four of them have an xwOBA of at least .355 against left-handed pitching this season).

Quick Breakdown: I don’t mind targeting both pitchers in these showdown slates, but prefer Rodriguez over Richard if choosing one.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have an easy matchup to break down. Clayton Richard has a massive 75% ground ball rate against lefties, which has led to a .306 xwOBA allowed. His struggles have come against batters from the right side, as he has allowed a .359 xwOBA with a 42% hard contact rate. The best targets from the Giants are going to be those that bat from the right side and have high fly-ball rates against left-handed pitching. That list includes the likes of Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, and Chase d’Arnaud. All three are elite plays in the showdown slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.379	0.159	44.0%	10.7%	21.5%	41.0%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
2	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.410	0.167	42.7%	13.5%	10.3%	40.6%	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.413	0.270	47.4%	5.2%	13.5%	44.9%	3B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
4	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.361	0.191	35.8%	6.6%	19.2%	39.4%	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
5	Austin Slater	RIGHT	0.319	0.130	35.0%	7.4%	14.8%	65.0%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
6	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.359	0.318	27.8%	0.0%	18.2%	27.8%	3B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
7	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.214	0.038	29.7%	7.1%	26.8%	48.6%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.314	0.176	38.4%	7.2%	27.0%	43.5%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Dereck Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.087	0.143	25.0%	0.0%	50.0%	33.3%	P	$8,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.317	0.177	36.2%	6.4%	22.4%	42.7%

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Chase d’Arnaud

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Austin Slater

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

The Padres are the Padres, so we shouldn’t ever get too excited about using them in cash games or tournaments. Dereck Rodriguez has traditional splits for a right-handed pitcher, holding righties to a .286 xwOBA, while allowing a .350 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. In a full slate, this would be an easy situation to avoid, but it’s not like we are working with many options in these single-game showdown slates. Travis Jankowski and Eric Hosmer are both viable, as they both hit from the left side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Travis Jankowski	LEFT	0.297	0.077	23.3%	11.5%	12.0%	60.4%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
2	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.299	0.110	35.3%	9.4%	16.2%	48.2%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.428	0.237	52.8%	4.0%	24.8%	38.9%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.314	0.152	37.8%	9.4%	24.6%	60.2%	1B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
5	Christian Villanueva	RIGHT	0.269	0.141	28.7%	4.7%	25.8%	32.9%	3B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.298	0.088	40.7%	8.6%	23.5%	43.4%	SS	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.338	0.127	39.4%	10.9%	19.7%	30.9%	2B	$2,200	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.275	0.143	29.2%	7.0%	28.9%	38.9%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.219	0.121	16.7%	2.6%	48.7%	53.8%	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.304	0.133	33.8%	7.6%	24.9%	45.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								NY Yankees
			Yefry Ramirez							Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-320							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.300	30.3%	1.38	27.1%	32.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.280	0.324	31.1%	1.17	22.4%	52.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.264	0.290	28.6%	1.76	24.1%	47.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.324	40.0%	2.17	26.6%	43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Yefry Ramirez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$5,300	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:			24 of 29	Salary Rank:			25 of 29	Salary Rank:		25 of 29

	2018	5	3.82	3.49	25.6%	8.6%	41.1%	29.3%	20.0%	92.1	13.4%
	L14	2	3.50	2.70	33.3%	10.3%	27.3%	31.8%	27.3%	92.0	12.4%

We start tonight’s 14-game slate with the Orioles and Yankees. This game is expected to be one-sided, as you can tell from the Vegas line (Yankees are -320 favorites). Ramirez has pitched well in his first five major league starts, but he’s still a rookie pitcher that is taking on one of the league’s best offenses in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. The risk certainly outweighs the reward here. I’ll be watching to see how Ramirez handles himself in this spot, but I’ll side with the elite offense playing at home in this one.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ramirez in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:			$10,300	Salary:		$19,400
	Salary Rank:			4 of 29	Salary Rank:			4 of 29	Salary Rank:		4 of 29
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%	92.2	15.1%
	2018	16	3.60	4.09	24.9%	6.2%	46.9%	36.3%	18.7%	91.7	13.9%
	L14	2	2.58	1.17	25.9%	3.7%	58.3%	42.1%	18.4%	91.4	13.2%

It didn’t take long for us to arrive at my favorite pitching option of the slate. While Tanaka doesn’t quite have as high of a raw projection as Trevor Bauer, he’s considerably cheaper across the industry. He’s coming off of a complete game shutout against the Rays and now gets to face an Orioles’ offense that will be limping its way to the finish line here in the second half of the season. Baltimore’s projected lineup has seven righties in it and an average xwOBA of .305 with a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka will garner ownership, but the size of the slate will help it from getting too outrageous. He’s my top pitching option of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are a team that I will be streaming pitchers against the rest of the season. We already were targeting righties against them before the Manny Machado trade and now we can target southpaws against them as well. Masahiro Tanaka is an above-average pitcher in every aspect except for one — he allows a lot of home runs (18 in 16 starts this season). With this game being played in Yankee Stadium, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a solo shot or two off of Tanaka. If you want to go that route in tournaments, Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop both have three home runs off of Tanaka in their respective careers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.272	0.077	26.5%	4.6%	27.5%	46.5%	SS	$3,100	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,300
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.260	0.218	27.0%	2.0%	22.6%	45.7%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
3	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.326	0.172	32.0%	3.3%	18.4%	40.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.358	0.197	41.0%	7.1%	24.7%	38.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	DH	$6,600
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.296	0.118	33.8%	7.6%	35.6%	41.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.364	0.155	33.5%	9.0%	24.3%	51.7%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,300
7	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.283	0.133	29.2%	7.6%	18.2%	43.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,700
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.310	0.157	31.4%	12.1%	25.5%	47.6%	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$3,500	2B	$6,500
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.276	0.172	24.2%	3.1%	28.6%	40.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.305	0.155	31.0%	6.3%	25.0%	44.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones (GPP), Jonathan Schoop (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees don’t have a great matchup on paper, but Yefry Ramirez only has five career major league starts under his belt. While his strikeout rate is impressive, he doesn’t have great control and he is a fly-ball pitcher. If the Yankees are patient, they should get good pitches to hit. While I won’t be using New York as a full stack, I see the lefties in this lineup as elite tournament plays. Ramirez has a 15% lower ground ball rate when facing a left-handed hitter and we obviously know about the short porch in right field in Yankee Stadium.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.302	0.157	28.6%	11.7%	14.7%	51.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,200
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.307	0.180	34.6%	7.8%	32.8%	51.3%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,100
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.348	0.255	38.9%	8.3%	13.0%	34.3%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,900	SS	$8,900
4	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.352	0.182	38.5%	14.0%	19.3%	44.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
5	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.380	0.231	38.3%	6.3%	26.7%	30.7%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
6	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.325	0.250	42.4%	8.3%	26.4%	36.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,100
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.347	0.177	37.6%	3.8%	17.2%	50.2%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,300
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.344	0.099	36.2%	10.8%	22.1%	39.1%	2B	$2,700	1B/2B	$3,900	2B	$7,200
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.343	0.223	35.1%	10.2%	21.3%	42.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,400	C	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.339	0.195	36.7%	9.0%	21.5%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius (GPP), Greg Bird (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius (Cash), Greg Bird (Cash), Brett Gardner, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Pittsburgh
			Jon Lester							Jameson Taillon
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-105							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.365	32.9%	1.67	19.8%	39.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.313	31.7%	0.94	18.6%	49.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.359	34.8%	1.06	18.9%	37.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.265	0.269	30.9%	0.89	27.8%	49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:		$16,200
	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:		10 of 29
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%	91.1	11.0%
	2018	21	4.70	3.06	19.1%	9.2%	38.0%	34.4%	15.8%	90.9	8.3%
	L14	3	4.73	7.53	22.1%	11.8%	31.0%	43.2%	18.2%	91.4	7.2%

Lester has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. Even though his numbers are down across the board, he’s managed to post an ERA of 3.06. I’ve been harping on regression for the last month and we are finally starting to see it come to fruition (ERA over seven in his last three starts). I would much rather bet on cheap pitchers that should positively regress instead of overpriced pitchers that have been lucky thus far. There are some strikeouts to be had in the Pirates’ offense, but their projected lineup has a .325 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lester in all formats. Don’t fall for the low ERA trap.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,900	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:			5 of 29	Salary Rank:			11 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%	95.3	8.2%
	2018	21	3.73	3.73	23.1%	6.5%	49.4%	31.3%	19.7%	95.2	10.2%
	L14	2	3.55	2.19	21.6%	3.9%	47.4%	31.6%	15.8%	95.1	10.1%

Taillon always seems to fly under the radar, even though his skill set is exactly what we are looking for in a pitcher. In 21 starts this season, he has a 3.73 SIERA, a 23% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, and a 49% ground ball rate. He’s above-average in all four of those key statistics. He’s pitching at home in a good ballpark and he’s facing a Cubs’ offense that has disappeared at times this season. I won’t go as far as to say Taillon is a core play tonight, but he’s certainly on my radar for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is an excellent SP2 for tournaments tonight on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs aren’t an offense that I love to fire up when playing in pitcher-friendly ballparks. They have some good hitters in their lineup, but it feels like they have underperformed to this point. They have a low implied run total tonight, as they square off against Jameson Taillon. In addition to having above-average ground ball and strikeout rates, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. In a 14-game slate, we can easily find better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.396	0.195	35.2%	12.0%	10.0%	37.8%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,900	1B	$8,700
2	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.362	0.144	33.5%	14.7%	12.9%	44.1%	2B	$2,600	2B/OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,300
3	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.357	0.160	32.9%	9.0%	10.2%	42.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,300
4	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.337	0.255	38.2%	3.1%	28.1%	43.9%	2B	$3,700	2B/SS	$5,100	2B	$9,900
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.314	0.153	31.0%	7.8%	19.6%	50.0%	C	$2,800	C	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.384	0.288	43.4%	16.1%	25.6%	41.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,500
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.296	0.097	32.8%	8.7%	22.6%	41.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,300
8	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.266	0.100	25.9%	0.0%	25.0%	76.2%	P	$8,200	P	$8,300	P	$16,200
9	David Bote	RIGHT	0.437	0.217	33.3%	14.8%	18.5%	66.7%	3B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.350	0.179	34.0%	9.6%	19.2%	49.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are the preferred offense to target tonight and they should fly under the radar since Jon Lester still carries a lot of name value. As mentioned above, he’s been very lucky this season. He has allowed a .294 wOBA to righties, but his expected wOBA is sitting at .359 with a hard contact rate of 35%. This isn’t a spot where I want to load up on the Pirates, Jordan Luplow, Starling Marte, David Freese, and Josh Harrison are all viable as the final piece into your lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jordan Luplow	RIGHT	0.353	0.250	10.0%	0.0%	16.7%	10.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.352	0.228	32.2%	8.0%	24.1%	55.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,500
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.296	0.205	32.7%	11.1%	24.4%	33.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,400
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.372	0.065	38.3%	11.2%	21.3%	56.7%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
5	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.314	0.129	27.7%	13.9%	21.8%	41.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,700
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.361	0.150	34.5%	16.7%	22.9%	34.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.322	0.148	39.2%	4.6%	15.4%	33.3%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,400
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.347	0.143	33.9%	5.9%	15.3%	33.8%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.206	0.000	0.0%	14.3%	42.9%	100.0%	P	$8,900	P	$7,800	P	$15,300
	Team Averages		0.325	0.146	27.6%	9.5%	22.8%	44.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jordan Luplow, Starling Marte, David Freese, Josh Harrison

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Washington
			Steven Matz							Tanner Roark
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-180							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.286	11.3%	0.74	18.1%	69.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.327	27.2%	1.19	24.3%	40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.327	0.324	37.1%	1.63	22.2%	43.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.361	30.9%	1.02	17.1%	44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:			15 of 29	Salary Rank:			16 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29
	2017	13	4.71	6.08	16.1%	6.4%	47.1%	32.9%	21.9%	93.1	7.1%
	2018	20	4.28	3.79	21.3%	8.8%	49.7%	31.2%	17.7%	93.3	8.3%
	L14	2	3.93	7.36	24.5%	6.1%	32.4%	29.4%	20.6%	93.5	11.1%

Matz has had a decent year overall, posting a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a ground ball rate of 50%. He has been incredibly tough on lefties, which could come in handy against the Nationals, who often have three or four lefties in their lineup when facing southpaws. With that said, Matz is a large underdog on the road in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. There are a handful of pitchers that I would target before clicking Matz’s name in cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Matz just doesn’t make the final cut tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$17,500
	Salary Rank:			14 of 29	Salary Rank:			7 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%	92.2	10.1%
	2018	20	4.35	4.55	20.7%	8.4%	42.7%	29.1%	19.2%	91.3	9.0%
	L14	2	2.97	2.77	30.2%	5.7%	47.1%	20.6%	26.5%	92.1	12.4%

Roark’s 11-strikeout performance against the Brewers the other night came out of nowhere. Before that start, he hadn’t topped 17 fantasy points in any of his previous ten outings. I don’t know about you, but I tend to trust the season long stats over a single outlier performance when looking to predict future fantasy production. The Mets may not have a lot of superstars on their roster, but they’ve been decent against right-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .338 with a 13% walk rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I’m expecting the old Roark to make an appearance tonight. I will be looking elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Even though I have no interest in Tanner Roark, that doesn’t automatically mean that I will be loading up on the Mets’ offense. We have to keep in mind that there are 14 games on the schedule. If you don’t feel great about a specific play, don’t hesitate to go with another option. There is no shortage of plays in these big slates. On the season, Roark has allowed a .325+ xwOBA to both lefties and righties, but he has done a nice job of limiting hard contact and this game is being played in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.284	0.123	27.3%	5.3%	19.5%	48.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,900
2	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.370	0.249	36.6%	13.3%	27.5%	35.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,200
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.321	0.227	35.7%	8.2%	8.8%	36.4%	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.349	0.154	35.4%	17.0%	20.8%	38.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,500
5	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.346	0.179	43.2%	15.1%	29.5%	30.9%	OF	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.484	0.000	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	50.0%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$5,900
7	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.324	0.182	33.6%	6.2%	18.6%	31.1%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$5,800
8	Luis Guillorme	LEFT	0.345	0.027	28.6%	14.0%	4.7%	54.3%	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,700	2B	$5,700
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.222	0.042	9.5%	0.0%	19.2%	47.4%	P	$7,500	P	$6,900	P	$14,000
	Team Averages		0.338	0.131	27.8%	12.5%	16.5%	41.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Bryce Harper said that he is available and the whole internet is waiting for news to drop. Whether or not he gets traded before this game, we want to avoid all of the lefties in this lineup. Steven Matz has held batters from the left side of the plate to a .286 xwOBA on a 70% ground ball rate. His numbers against righties are significantly worse, allowing a .324 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. Even more important is the fact that he’s ranked dead last in this slate when it comes to holding runners. I love this spot for Trea Turner and don’t mind pairing him up with Ryan Zimmerman or Mark Reynolds, who are both cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.371	0.133	34.1%	11.8%	11.8%	40.4%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.392	0.215	36.8%	19.0%	24.1%	46.1%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
3	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.373	0.216	40.6%	11.9%	11.9%	43.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
4	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.331	0.167	38.2%	10.9%	27.3%	52.9%	1B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,500	1B	$6,500
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.390	0.327	37.5%	13.3%	20.0%	56.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,600
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.269	0.156	39.3%	7.1%	35.7%	52.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,500
7	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.337	0.043	14.3%	7.7%	11.5%	38.1%	2B	$3,100	1B/2B	$3,900	2B	$7,700
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.436	0.143	42.9%	19.2%	26.9%	35.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$5,600
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.245	0.000	21.4%	0.0%	17.6%	75.0%	P	$7,600	P	$9,100	P	$17,500
	Team Averages		0.349	0.156	33.9%	11.2%	20.8%	49.0%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Detroit
			Homer Bailey							Matt Boyd
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-125							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.382	33.6%	2.14	14.4%	40.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.268	42.1%	1.33	25.0%	34.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.384	0.428	51.2%	1.80	14.6%	39.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.306	36.1%	0.87	20.8%	33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Homer Bailey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$4,200	Salary:		$8,200
	Salary Rank:			28 of 29	Salary Rank:			27 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29
	2017	18	5.19	6.43	16.0%	10.0%	44.6%	31.0%	16.5%	93.5	9.3%
	2018	13	5.14	6.29	14.5%	8.2%	39.8%	42.9%	13.9%	93.0	8.3%
	L14	1	3.20	2.70	30.8%	7.7%	25.0%	37.5%	12.5%	94.6	14.8%

Bailey is coming off of his best start of the year, striking out eight batters against the Cardinals in nearly seven innings of work. Much like Tanner Roark, I will be trusting the larger sample size of data over a single outlier performance. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if Bailey came out and gave up six runs in three innings tonight against the Tigers. While Detroit is typically an offense that we like to target pitchers against, I would much rather take my chances with a stack against Bailey.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bailey in all formats and hope he lives up to his birth name.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:		$14,600
	Salary Rank:			23 of 29	Salary Rank:			14 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%	92.0	10.0%
	2018	20	4.36	4.53	21.8%	8.3%	33.5%	37.6%	20.1%	89.6	10.1%
	L14	2	2.96	2.45	28.3%	4.4%	50.0%	51.6%	16.1%	91.1	11.9%

Boyd is coming off of two solid starts, but he’s not a pitcher that I trust in the long run. In 20 starts this season, he has a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. The good news is that he’ll face one less potent righty tonight, as the Reds traded Adam Duvall to the Braves. If he can find a way to pitch around Eugenio Suarez and Tucker Barnhart, I could see a nice outing from Boyd tonight. The run support should certainly be there with Homer Bailey pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: If building multiple tournament lineups, Boyd becomes a viable SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds get to use the DH in this series and are facing a hittable southpaw, but I surprisingly have very little interest in their offense. On the season, Matt Boyd has managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. He also has a 21%+ k-rate against batters from both sides of the plate. The one batter that stands out as a nice one-off play is Eugenio Suarez, who has a .492 xwOBA, a .341 ISO, and a 56% hard contact rate against southpaws this season. Those are truly elite numbers we shouldn’t sleep on him in DFS.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.289	0.071	24.3%	3.4%	5.9%	42.7%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,500
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.311	0.179	44.2%	3.4%	24.4%	35.7%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.375	0.098	41.3%	15.4%	20.1%	43.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,100
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.492	0.341	55.9%	16.5%	16.5%	36.8%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,900	3B	$8,700
5	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.340	0.150	39.5%	12.7%	25.4%	57.1%	C	$2,700	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
6	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.294	0.222	50.0%	10.0%	30.0%	50.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
7	Brandon Dixon	RIGHT	0.171	0.000	20.0%	6.7%	26.7%	66.7%	2B	$2,300	1B/2B	$2,800	2B	$5,700
8	Mason Williams	LEFT							OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,800
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.262	0.116	28.1%	8.5%	30.9%	27.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.317	0.147	37.9%	9.6%	22.5%	45.0%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are one way to create some leverage on the field tonight in tournaments. Far too often, inexperienced DFS players will target low-owned players in bad matchups. The key to differentiation is to target good plays in spots that are flying under the radar. The Tigers fit that mold tonight, as they square off against Homer Bailey. In addition to a low strikeout rate and a high fly-ball rate, Bailey has allowed a .380+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I don’t want to mess around with the bottom of this Tigers’ lineup, but have my eye on the one-through-four stack — Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, and Niko Goodrum.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.398	0.164	41.9%	10.5%	21.5%	38.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.301	0.202	34.6%	11.9%	24.6%	38.2%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,400
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.382	0.192	49.1%	5.9%	23.4%	34.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.329	0.220	35.5%	8.9%	32.2%	40.3%	2B	$2,700	2B/OF	$3,700	1B	$7,300
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.341	0.070	41.4%	7.2%	9.2%	39.9%	C	$2,600	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,600
6	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.202	0.133	23.8%	6.3%	28.1%	52.4%	OF	$2,000	1B	$3,600	LF	$7,700
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.274	0.089	35.7%	5.1%	21.7%	39.5%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.267	0.097	24.2%	3.5%	10.9%	46.8%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,300
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.236	0.047	30.3%	1.2%	22.1%	52.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.303	0.135	35.2%	6.7%	21.5%	42.5%

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario (GPP), Niko Goodrum (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario (Cash), Niko Goodrum (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 31st

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

San Francisco at San Diego – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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