MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-22 02:21:57

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Colorado at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					NY Yankees
			Chad Bettis					Ivan Nova
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -170					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.318	6	17.4%	9.4%	SP vs. Left	0.361	12	11.2%	7.7%
SP vs. Right	0.358	17	19.4%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.329	11	19.8%	5.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chad Bettis
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		23.0	FPPG:		10.2
					Pitcher Rating:		38.1	Pitcher Rank:		28
L30 Days	5	87.0	4.52	9.27	14.3%	6.3%	8.3%	51.8%	28.2%	32.2%
2016	14	93.9	4.14	5.63	16.8%	5.5%	7.9%	51.0%	27.2%	32.1%
2015	20	94.1	4.08	4.23	19.5%	8.4%	9.8%	49.3%	28.5%	31.8%

Bettis continues to be an easy fade in DFS. Through 14 starts this season, he has a 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. He produces a lot of ground balls, but so far that hasn’t led to any success at the major league level. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Yankees. The total for the game is set at 9.5 runs, which is one of the highest on the schedule.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,200
					FPPG:		19.6	FPPG:		9.1
					Pitcher Rating:		49.3	Pitcher Rank:		19
L30 Days	5	94.6	3.92	6.30	20.7%	5.9%	10.6%	45.8%	32.3%	37.1%
2016	8	109.3	3.71	4.77	16.7%	4.3%	9.4%	56.6%	25.3%	33.2%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Nova “should” see some positive regression moving forward, but he has been giving up such hard contact that you just never know. On the season, he has a 3.71 SIERA (4.77 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 16.7%. I’m less concerned about the ERA as I am about the low strikeout rate. The Rockies aren’t as good offensively on the road, but Yankee Stadium is still a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are ranked inside the top five in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. While some of that is skewed by Coors Field, they still have a number of batters that fare well against righties. In addition to having a low strikeout rate, Ivan Nova has allowed a .361 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.2% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.01 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.34 (13 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.356	0.180	0.319	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.332	0.114	0.477	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.386	0.308	0.335	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,600
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.412	0.303	0.386	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,900
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.359	0.292	0.367	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,100
6	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.309	0.169	0.332	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.327	0.164	0.378	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,200
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.356	0.179	0.311	C	$2,300	C	$2,800
9	Brandon Barnes	RIGHT	0.300	0.120	0.115	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.349	0.203	0.336	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story (FD)

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story (DK)

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees have not hit right-handed pitching well this season, but they come into tonight’s game with the third highest team total on the board. They draw an excellent matchup against Chad Bettis, who has allowed a .318 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .358 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The only potential concern here is that Bettis does have a ground ball rate over 50%.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.16 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.313	0.109	0.292	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.333	0.149	0.332	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,000
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.357	0.217	0.459	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.333	0.209	0.292	3B	$3,500	1B/3B	$3,700
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.328	0.211	0.326	C	$3,300	C	$3,800
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.287	0.130	0.248	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,000
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.302	0.123	0.413	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,700
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.304	0.105	0.376	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,000
9	Ike Davis	LEFT	0.289	0.111	0.222	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.152	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez

Stackability – GPP

San Diego at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					Baltimore
			Luis Perdomo					Tyler Wilson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -190					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.385	4	11.4%	8.6%	SP vs. Left	0.305	3	9.3%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.454	3	20.9%	10.9%	SP vs. Right	0.307	5	13.7%	5.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Luis Perdomo
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		6.9	FPPG:		1.8
					Pitcher Rating:		33.6	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	2	97.0	4.03	8.20	16.9%	10.0%	9.7%	63.0%	19.6%	29.0%
2016	3	91.3	4.24	8.79	16.3%	9.8%	9.2%	55.8%	20.8%	32.3%

Perdomo has allowed at least three runs in each of his last four appearances. Overall (in three starts and some work out of the bullpen), he owns a 4.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.3% and a walk rate of 9.8% on the season. He comes into tonight’s game as a large underdog on the road against a talented Orioles’ offense. Baltimore is currently ranked third in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Wilson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		19.4	FPPG:		9.6
					Pitcher Rating:		50.4	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	89.8	4.54	4.75	13.9%	4.6%	7.1%	48.5%	33.0%	37.7%
2016	10	101.3	4.80	4.16	12.8%	5.7%	6.3%	46.7%	33.8%	32.5%
2015	5	104.0	5.08	3.50	8.7%	7.4%	5.2%	52.0%	30.1%	31.5%

Wilson has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. After only striking out 8.7% of the batters that he faced a year ago, he has only struck out 12.8% of the batters that he has faced this season. He doesn’t walk too many batters, but he gives up a lot of hard contact. He could be a cheap source for a win tonight against the Padres though, and at $5,300 on DraftKings, he could be worth a look in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are one of the worst offenses in baseball, but they draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Wilson in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Wilson has allowed a .305+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. This is also a matchup where the Padres could potentially make some good contact, as Wilson has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.278 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.1% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.286	0.091	0.335	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.344	0.220	0.494	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,500
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.301	0.168	0.364	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400
4	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.349	0.204	0.160	1B	$2,100	3B	$3,300
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.302	0.144	0.383	OF	$3,000	OF	$5,000
6	Ryan Schimpf	LEFT	0.276	0.167	0.272	3B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,100
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.284	0.151	0.296	C	$2,900	C	$3,600
8	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.266	0.102	0.240	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000
9	Adam Rosales	RIGHT	0.266	0.155	0.401	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.156	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles have the highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They also have the second highest implied run total tonight, as they square off against Luis Perdomo, who has been very hittable in his three starts this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, but give a small edge to the left-handed bats. An Orioles’ stack is certainly in play in all league formats.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.345 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.84 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.52 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.340	0.215	0.356	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.382	0.090	0.294	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
3	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.340	0.195	0.261	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,200
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.395	0.321	0.466	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,400
5	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.337	0.170	0.338	C	$3,100	C	$4,200
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.365	0.242	0.439	2B	$3,300	2B	$5,200
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.338	0.235	0.363	3B	$2,900	1B	$4,100
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.263	0.121	0.306	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.282	0.146	0.373	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.193	0.355	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Pittsburgh
			Johnny Cueto					Wilfredo Boscan
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -145					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.267	8	23.2%	5.5%	SP vs. Left	0.277	0	10.5%	10.5%
SP vs. Right	0.292	16	19.2%	4.9%	SP vs. Right	0.228	0	12.9%	9.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Johnny Cueto
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$12,700
					FPPG:		44.7	FPPG:		25.1
					Pitcher Rating:		78.4	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	105.0	3.60	1.00	21.0%	5.8%	7.8%	56.7%	26.8%	18.4%
2016	14	105.9	3.47	2.10	22.4%	5.0%	9.5%	51.3%	27.4%	24.5%
2015	32	102.1	3.81	3.44	20.3%	5.3%	9.9%	42.4%	35.6%	28.7%

Cueto is having an excellent season so far, posting a 3.47 SIERA (2.10 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 22.4% and a walk rate of only 5%. He is back to producing an elite ground ball rate, which has helped him lower his hard hit contact rate. He comes into tonight’s game as a favorite against the Pirates, although I would prefer it if the game was in San Francisco rather than Pittsburgh. The good news is that the run support should be there with Wilfredo Boscan pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Wilfredo Boscan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,200
					FPPG:		11.0	FPPG:		5.5
					Pitcher Rating:		39.5	Pitcher Rank:		27
L30 Days	0	0.0	5.74	3.48	9.3%	11.6%	3.0%	48.5%	36.4%	14.7%
2016	0	0.0	5.18	2.92	12.0%	10.0%	5.1%	47.4%	36.8%	18.0%

Boscan is making his first career major league start tonight. When looking at his minor league numbers, he is not a high strikeout pitcher. In nine starts at the Triple-A level this season, he posted a 3.33 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.8%. It’s always easy to avoid these pitchers making their debut, especially when they aren’t a top pitching prospect.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants’ offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season, ranking 14th in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO. They are one of the hardest teams to strikeout though and they are facing a low strikeout pitcher in Wilfredo Boscan. With a mediocre run projection, I expect the Giants to get overlooked tonight even though there are a few hitters that stand out.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 16.5% (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.26 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.350	0.124	0.197	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.357	0.168	0.356	2B	$3,500	2B	$5,000
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.375	0.203	0.463	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,100
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.351	0.151	0.376	C	$4,000	C	$4,800
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.342	0.215	0.287	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900
6	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.272	0.079	0.250	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600
7	Ramiro Pena	SWITCH	0.439	0.000	0.293	3B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,000
8	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.402	0.282	0.406	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
9	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.124	0.000	0.000	P	$11,000	P	$12,700
	Team Averages	—	0.335	0.136	0.292	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the sixth lowest team total on the board tonight. They were unable to get anything going offensively last night against Madison Bumgarner and they could be in for a similar fate tonight against Johnny Cueto. Over the last two seasons, Cueto has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.139 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.61 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.74 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.349	0.151	0.281	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,600
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.342	0.160	0.297	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,700
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.359	0.190	0.247	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.363	0.164	0.420	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,600
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.368	0.197	0.310	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,500
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.305	0.104	0.240	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,500
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.261	0.061	0.330	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,300
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.061	0.023	0.113	C	$2,000	C	$2,000
9	Wilfredo Boscan	RIGHT				P	$5,500	P	$4,200
	Team Averages	—	0.301	0.131	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Toronto
			Patrick Corbin					Marco Estrada
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -180					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.271	2	31.1%	8.0%	SP vs. Left	0.273	21	18.2%	8.2%
SP vs. Right	0.344	20	16.9%	5.5%	SP vs. Right	0.261	13	20.8%	8.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Patrick Corbin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		21.9	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		46.9	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	5	92.4	3.86	6.28	20.8%	7.2%	10.2%	53.4%	27.3%	36.0%
2016	14	93.0	4.21	4.76	18.0%	7.2%	9.3%	52.3%	28.6%	39.2%
2015	16	78.4	3.44	3.60	21.9%	4.8%	10.8%	46.9%	29.5%	31.5%

Corbin got knocked around a bit in his last start and could suffer the same fate tonight against the Blue Jays. Even though Toronto’s offense hasn’t been as good this season, they still lead the majors in team wOBA against southpaws over the last two seasons. To make matters worse, Corbin has to face them on the road in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Corbin should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$11,300
					FPPG:		36.5	FPPG:		20.5
					Pitcher Rating:		62.2	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	5	106.2	5.18	2.52	19.0%	11.0%	8.1%	28.7%	54.3%	34.4%
2016	13	102.6	4.46	2.58	22.1%	9.9%	9.8%	35.8%	48.5%	33.3%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

Estrada’s SIERA is a full two runs higher than his ERA this season. That’s a pretty incredible statistic when you look at his hard hit contact rate of 33.3%. We should expect some regression moving forward, as it’s hard to imagine him sustaining a .188 BABIP over the course of the entire season. Estrada is an easy fade for me, because his good fortune has led to a low ERA which has led to a high price tag. He’s a large favorite at home, but there are better options at similar price points.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season and they come into tonight’s game with the 11th lowest team total on the board. They draw difficult matchup on paper against Marco Estrada, but as I mentioned above, eventually he is going to start giving up more hits. With such a hitter-friendly ballpark, the Diamondbacks make great low-owned GPP plays tonight.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.157 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.5% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.46 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.292	0.095	0.376	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,500
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.270	0.053	0.239	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.400	0.241	0.481	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.353	0.189	0.508	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,000
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.297	0.168	0.338	C	$3,400	C	$2,900
6	Chris Herrmann	LEFT	0.305	0.211	0.366	C	$2,900	C	$3,300
7	Peter O’Brien	RIGHT	0.094	0.000	0.240	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,600
8	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.284	0.107	0.329	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,800
9	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.244	0.115	0.292	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,100
	Team Averages	—	0.282	0.131	0.352	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Jake Lamb, Welington Castillo, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the fifth highest team total on the board, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if they ended up being the top scoring offense tonight. They are playing at home and they get to face a left-handed pitcher in Patrick Corbin. Over the last two seasons, Corbin has allowed a .344 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters. The Jays will be licking their chops ahead of tonight’s game.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.320 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (14 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.68 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.96 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.297	0.103	0.461	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.416	0.296	0.538	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,600
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.392	0.281	0.514	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,300
4	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.364	0.200	0.434	C	$3,200	C	$3,600
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.321	0.181	0.294	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,600
6	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.451	0.353	0.555	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.340	0.198	0.407	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,700
8	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.403	0.133	0.320	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.348	0.132	0.200	SS	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.370	0.209	0.414	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Seattle at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Detroit
			James Paxton					Justin Verlander
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -130					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.426	2	21.7%	14.1%	SP vs. Left	0.262	10	23.5%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.283	9	21.3%	7.2%	SP vs. Right	0.299	14	22.7%	5.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
James Paxton
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		36.0	FPPG:		19.3
					Pitcher Rating:		47.3	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	4	104.0	2.99	2.86	29.0%	6.0%	11.8%	46.9%	26.6%	32.3%
2016	4	104.0	2.99	2.86	29.0%	6.0%	11.8%	46.9%	26.6%	32.3%
2015	13	85.5	4.44	3.90	18.9%	9.8%	7.2%	48.3%	34.4%	29.7%

Paxton has been great in his first four starts of the season, posting a 2.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. I don’t think that he can sustain this type of success over the course of an entire season, but he has always had nice strikeout upside. He’s worth monitoring moving forward, but he can be avoided tonight against the Tigers, whose lineup could have nine right-handed batters in it. Paxton has been a reverse-splits pitcher in the past, but I don’t love the idea of a lefty having to face so many right-handed batters on the road.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$11,400
					FPPG:		38.1	FPPG:		20.8
					Pitcher Rating:		76.0	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	107.6	3.16	2.75	27.0%	3.7%	11.7%	35.2%	41.8%	29.0%
2016	14	107.5	3.60	3.87	26.0%	6.7%	11.4%	35.7%	45.1%	28.7%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander comes into tonight’s game in great form, posting a 3.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% over the last month of play. He is back to being the dominant Verlander of the past, yet he is still priced a bit cheaper than you would expect given his recent production. He is a small favorite tonight against the Mariners, but the matchup is less than ideal. Seattle is currently ranked fourth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

This is one of those situations where I don’t really love the pitcher or the offense that he is facing. The Mariners’ offense has been great this season, but so has Justin Verlander. Something has to give here, but it’s hard to know what side that is going to be. For that reason, I will likely be avoiding both. There are enough games in the slate that we can just take a pass with this one.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.182 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.6% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.94 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.07 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.301	0.151	0.299	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,100
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.347	0.188	0.328	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.377	0.222	0.391	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,300
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.368	0.226	0.334	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,400
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.347	0.195	0.324	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600
6	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.350	0.203	0.373	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,200
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.265	0.148	0.451	C	$2,600	C	$2,500
8	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.320	0.107	0.265	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,600
9	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.309	0.084	0.266	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.169	0.337	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

The Tigers draw a difficult matchup on paper against James Paxton, but they come into the game with the tenth highest team total on the board. Their lineup is loaded with powerful right-handed hitters that could pose some problems for the left-handed Paxton. This isn’t my favorite matchup on the board, but there are a number of Tigers’ hitters on my radar.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.325 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.3% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.74 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.43 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.372	0.175	0.334	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,200
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.350	0.135	0.243	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.355	0.167	0.396	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.391	0.168	0.314	C	$2,900	1B	$4,100
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.375	0.239	0.302	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,500
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.269	0.123	0.396	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
7	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.347	0.114	0.346	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,400
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.379	0.243	0.263	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
9	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.277	0.091	0.234	2B	$2,000	2B/OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.162	0.314	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 21st

Colorado at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story (FD)

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story (DK)

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez

Stackability – GPP

San Diego at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Arizona at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Jake Lamb, Welington Castillo, Chris Herrmann

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Justin Smoak, Michael Saunders, Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Seattle at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinser, Cameron Maybin, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – GPP

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