MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-11 17:51:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Houston at Detroit – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Detroit
			Framber Valdez							Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-220							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.279	18.2%	0.00	30.4%	54.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.335	35.4%	1.69	20.6%	37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.240	0.276	12.2%	0.61	14.0%	75.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.320	39.3%	1.70	20.9%	34.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Framber Valdez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			17 of 30	Salary Rank:			13 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	3	4.26	1.37	18.8%	12.5%	70.6%	13.5%	30.8%	92.1	6.9%
	L14	3	4.53	1.76	18.0%	14.8%	75.0%	12.2%	36.6%	91.9	5.9%

What’s going on everybody? Happy Tuesday. I know that we are all itching to get to Week 2 of the NFL, but we have a few days of baseball to keep us entertained until then. We have two early games on the schedule once again, although they aren’t exactly early, just early enough not to be included in the main slate. Like yesterday, I will separate the strategy for the two slates. Valdez has been impressive in his rookie season, but his 1.37 ERA is a bit misleading. His SIERA is sitting at 4.26 and a strikeout rate of 19% is well below the major league average. Tonight he pitches on the road, but he does draw an exploitable matchup against the Tigers, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .314 with a strikeout rate of 22% against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Valdez is viable as an SP2 in the early two-game slate, but he’s far from a sure thing.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			22 of 30	Salary Rank:			20 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%	92.2	8.1%
	2018	21	4.02	4.03	20.7%	4.1%	35.8%	37.3%	16.5%	91.2	9.5%
	L14	3	3.70	3.18	21.2%	3.0%	44.9%	44.9%	8.2%	91.7	9.2%

Zimmermann got off to a strong start this season, he struggled in the heat of the summer, and now he has bounced back again. In his last three starts, he has a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 3%. If we take the name away from the numbers, they look even more appealing. I’ve played him more than most this season, but I’m hesitant in this matchup. The Astros’ projected lineup boasts an average .332 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann will be contrarian, but we need more than that to justify the play.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Detroit, they are guaranteed to see ninth inning at-bats, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Jordan Zimmermann. While he does have good command and an average strikeout rate, he’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has given up a .335 xwOBA to lefties and a 39% hard contact rate to righties. With two good pitchers on the mound in Cincinnati, the Astros are the top offense to target in this early slate. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Tyler White all boast a .345+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.352	0.162	33.1%	10.6%	18.1%	49.4%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.356	0.134	32.5%	9.3%	14.3%	48.0%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.410	0.261	39.2%	13.6%	12.4%	34.5%	3B	$4,700	3B/SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.277	0.130	30.6%	3.2%	11.0%	50.2%	1B	$2,800			N/A	N/A
5	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.321	0.190	30.2%	10.5%	24.3%	46.0%	SS	$3,600			N/A	N/A
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.323	0.164	35.1%	11.6%	24.8%	44.1%	OF	$2,700			N/A	N/A
7	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.347	0.282	33.7%	9.6%	17.5%	45.8%	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
8	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.300	0.125	29.0%	7.5%	16.4%	23.0%	C	$2,400			N/A	N/A
9	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.304	0.089	30.4%	10.4%	16.0%	36.0%	OF	$3,100			N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.332	0.171	32.6%	9.6%	17.2%	41.9%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Tyler White

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are the sneaky offense to target in this two-game slate, especially if you are playing on a single-pitcher site like FanDuel (so we don’t have to target hitters against one of our starting pitchers). Framber Valdez is a rookie that is making a start on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. There is certainly a lot that can go wrong on his end. The Tigers aren’t great offensively, but Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, and James McCann all stand out as viable GPP targets, as they each boast an xwOBA over .320 against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.337	0.203	39.4%	6.9%	26.9%	47.9%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.326	0.093	33.3%	10.7%	19.8%	61.9%	2B	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.404	0.211	48.6%	7.6%	19.3%	41.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.345	0.142	28.2%	4.7%	9.4%	41.8%	C	$2,200			N/A	N/A
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.280	0.040	27.8%	10.7%	25.0%	38.9%	OF	$2,000			N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.350	0.113	31.9%	6.7%	26.9%	41.2%	C	$2,000			N/A	N/A
7	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.292	0.188	31.7%	0.0%	18.0%	36.8%	SS	$2,600			N/A	N/A
8	Dawel Lugo	RIGHT	0.192	0.000	16.7%	11.1%	22.2%	66.7%	3B	$2,100			N/A	N/A
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.304	0.131	50.7%	5.5%	25.7%	43.7%	OF	$2,100			N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.314	0.125	34.3%	7.1%	21.5%	46.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, James McCann (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Cincinnati
			Hyun-Jin Ryu							Luis Castillo
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-155							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.269	0.296	22.2%	0.68	23.2%	52.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.389	0.379	44.1%	2.28	22.5%	39.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.269	0.267	36.8%	1.00	30.5%	45.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.263	0.300	34.6%	1.11	25.0%	49.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Hyun-Jin Ryu
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 30	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.36	3.77	21.4%	8.3%	45.1%	36.2%	18.6%	90.3	11.0%
	2018	11	3.10	2.16	28.8%	5.2%	47.0%	33.3%	17.0%	90.1	10.9%
	L14	3	3.04	1.93	26.6%	1.3%	36.8%	33.3%	19.3%	90.2	13.1%

Ryu has pitched very well in his 11 starts this season, posting a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 5%. He’s done a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and he offers plenty of upside at his current price points ($9,000 on FanDuel and $8,300 on DraftKings). A matchup against the Reds in Great American Ballpark isn’t exactly ideal, but Cincinnati’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .320 with a strikeout rate of 20% against left-handed pitching. Ryu is a sizable favorite and he arguably has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any pitcher in the two early games.

Quick Breakdown: Ryu is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 30	Salary Rank:			11 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%	97.5	12.7%
	2018	28	3.82	4.79	23.8%	6.9%	44.7%	39.2%	18.1%	95.6	14.0%
	L14	2	1.92	1.54	40.0%	4.4%	56.0%	40.0%	16.0%	96.7	17.8%

Castillo is finally back! This is the guy that we’ve been waiting for all season. After showing so much upside as a rookie, we were all wondering what happened to him in the first half of the season. After the last few weeks, it’s safe to say that he’s back. In his last two starts, he has a 1.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 40% and a walk rate of 4%. He keeps the ball on the ground, which gives him a lethal combination in any matchup and in any ballpark. Obviously, a matchup against the Dodgers is ugly. Their projected lineup has six batters with at least a .355 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo has more upside than Valdez for your SP2 in tournaments, but obviously the matchup does come with plenty of risk.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers draw a difficult matchup against Luis Castillo, but he’s not a pitcher that I automatically fade hitters against. Yes, he has an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, but his numbers take a big dip against left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .379 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to lefties. Additionally, his strikeout rate and ground ball rate are significantly lower against batters from the left side of the plate. With the ballpark boost in Cincinnati, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, and Cody Bellinger are all on my radar in the early two-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.359	0.276	42.8%	10.4%	18.2%	41.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.378	0.194	41.5%	8.5%	11.2%	31.6%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.382	0.242	38.0%	9.7%	18.0%	38.0%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Max Muncy	LEFT	0.408	0.343	46.0%	16.5%	26.5%	36.4%	1B	$3,900	1B/3B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.344	0.238	38.7%	10.7%	22.8%	40.1%	OF	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.368	0.238	38.3%	12.6%	21.6%	40.1%	C	$2,900	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.309	0.198	38.3%	9.5%	20.5%	37.7%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.377	0.228	39.4%	7.3%	19.4%	41.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
9	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LEFT	0.054	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	63.6%	100.0%	P	$9,000	P	$8,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.331	0.217	38.7%	9.5%	24.6%	45.2%

Elite Plays – Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Plays – Yasmani Grandal (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds have a few batters in their lineup that mash left-handed pitching and they are playing at home in a home run-friendly ballpark. Even with that said, I have very limited interest in their offense in a matchup against Hyun-Jin Ryu. On the season, he boasts a 29% strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. Eugenio Suarez is the one hitter that I’m looking to play in all formats. He has arguably been the best hitter in baseball against southpaws this season. He owns a .459 xwOBA, a .309 ISO, and a 57% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.405	0.147	41.8%	4.9%	15.7%	44.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.304	0.123	26.0%	3.5%	5.9%	39.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.364	0.107	40.5%	15.0%	21.1%	43.2%	1B	$4,400	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.459	0.309	57.0%	14.4%	20.5%	36.6%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.339	0.234	42.1%	9.4%	18.9%	35.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.388	0.189	31.3%	9.3%	14.0%	40.6%	C	$3,000			N/A	N/A
7	Brandon Dixon	RIGHT	0.245	0.132	38.5%	2.6%	30.8%	40.0%	2B	$2,300			N/A	N/A
8	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.120	0.000	18.8%	0.0%	23.8%	64.3%	P	$8,100	P	$7,800	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.253	0.117	24.4%	6.9%	27.5%	27.4%	OF	$2,500			N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.320	0.151	35.6%	7.3%	19.8%	41.2%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Oakland								Baltimore
			Mike Fiers							Alex Cobb
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.348	40.6%	1.66	19.2%	38.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.336	32.0%	1.16	17.6%	46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.346	38.2%	1.53	19.4%	41.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.363	0.371	33.1%	1.73	13.0%	52.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Fiers
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:			4 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	28	4.52	5.22	21.8%	9.2%	42.9%	30.1%	20.1%	89.7	9.1%
	2018	27	4.25	3.36	19.3%	5.1%	40.4%	39.4%	15.5%	89.3	8.7%
	L14	2	4.61	6.52	17.1%	7.3%	48.4%	67.7%	3.2%	89.9	6.7%

We kick tonight’s 13-game slate off with the A’s and the Orioles. Fiers has really pitched well since joining Oakland, but most of his big outings came in home starts. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that benefits from playing in a ballpark that suppresses home run production. Tonight he goes on the road and has to pitch in the home run-friendly Camden Yards. The question is whether or not a matchup against the Orioles makes up for the ballpark or not. I’m leaning toward yes, as Baltimore’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .302 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers offers plenty of upside tonight, but he’s priced up across the industry and has a low floor. He shouldn’t be on your radar in cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:			13 of 30	Salary Rank:			18 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%	91.7	6.7%
	2018	26	4.63	4.97	15.3%	6.4%	49.4%	32.5%	20.9%	92.0	7.4%
	L14	2	5.60	4.63	11.8%	9.8%	43.6%	35.0%	12.5%	92.3	6.1%

Cobb has had a few decent outings this season, but he’s not a pitcher that I like to target in DFS. In his 26 starts, he has a 4.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. His biggest weapon at this point in his career is his ground ball rate and that’s negated by a fly-ball hitting A’s offense. If you look at the table below, Oakland’s projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .362 with a 40% ground ball rate against right-handed pitching. In a ballpark that yields a lot of home runs, Cobb offers more risk than upside in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are one of the top stacks of the slate. They see a massive ballpark boost playing in Baltimore and they draw an excellent matchup against Alex Cobb. Not only does he have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher on the mound tonight, but the A’s stand out from a batted ball perspective. I always like targeting fly-ball hitters against ground ball pitchers. Cobb has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters this season, while each of the first six hitters in the A’s projected lineup has a .350+ xwOBA and a .220+ ISO against right-handed pitching — Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Stephen Piscotty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ramon Laureano	RIGHT	0.410	0.327	62.2%	4.9%	31.1%	45.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,300
2	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.382	0.274	44.3%	10.4%	22.9%	36.6%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,900	3B	$9,200
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.350	0.224	37.6%	12.1%	19.2%	34.4%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,100
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.407	0.313	45.3%	7.5%	25.8%	36.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,500
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.385	0.244	49.4%	10.5%	25.6%	32.8%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,300
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.367	0.221	44.3%	5.0%	18.7%	44.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	RF	$8,800
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.311	0.101	29.7%	7.8%	18.0%	42.4%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,900
8	Nick Martini	LEFT	0.333	0.111	35.1%	11.2%	19.8%	42.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,500
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.310	0.069	36.7%	5.4%	13.2%	42.2%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.362	0.209	42.7%	8.3%	21.6%	39.8%

Elite Plays – Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t an offense that I am looking to stack anytime soon, but they are facing a pitcher that has struggled with the long ball at home in a home run-friendly ballpark. At the very least, we should have some interest in their batters as one-offs for tournaments. Mike Fiers has nearly identical splits against left and right-handed hitters, so it really comes down to personal preference in this Orioles’ lineup. Jonathan Villar always brings upside to the table, while Trey Mancini boasts a .379 xwOBA and a .190 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.304	0.239	30.0%	6.8%	10.8%	55.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.304	0.162	33.0%	6.7%	19.2%	36.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,500
3	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.284	0.110	30.1%	7.8%	26.2%	58.7%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,100
4	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.379	0.190	37.6%	7.2%	22.9%	48.3%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.297	0.131	35.6%	8.3%	35.7%	39.7%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,700
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.295	0.126	31.8%	5.1%	25.3%	47.1%	SS	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,500	SS	$6,300
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.298	0.160	28.9%	8.3%	27.3%	43.9%	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,500
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.301	0.127	30.8%	11.4%	24.9%	46.2%	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$3,900	2B	$7,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.258	0.127	27.8%	3.6%	26.1%	46.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,400
	Team Averages		0.302	0.152	31.7%	7.2%	24.3%	46.9%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar (GPP), Trey Mancini (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (Cash), Trey Mancini (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Tampa Bay
			Shane Bieber							Tyler Glasnow
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-102							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.395	0.381	51.5%	1.18	24.9%	33.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.306	25.7%	0.88	29.1%	51.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.281	37.4%	0.79	23.0%	55.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.320	36.5%	1.17	31.8%	47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Shane Bieber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,900	Salary:			$8,400	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:			5 of 30	Salary Rank:			7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30

	2018	16	3.49	4.63	24.0%	4.1%	44.6%	44.4%	10.1%	92.9	11.4%
	L14	3	3.14	5.82	23.9%	1.4%	43.4%	54.7%	13.2%	93.5	14.2%

Bieber has all of the tools to be a good pitcher at the major league level, but he’s been rather unlucky in his first 16 starts. His ERA is a full run higher than his SIERA. He’s shown good control and boasts an above-average strikeout rate. The issue with Bieber is two-fold — the Indians tend to take him out at the first sign of trouble and he has been awful against left-handed hitters. We should obviously take a wait and see approach, but the projected lineup for the Rays has seven lefties in it. If that ends up being the case, Bieber becomes an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Unless the Rays roll out a right-handed heavy lineup, I will be avoiding Bieber in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tyler Glasnow
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:		$16,900
	Salary Rank:			24 of 30	Salary Rank:			6 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2017	13	5.62	7.69	18.4%	14.4%	43.2%	31.5%	20.2%	94.6	8.3%
	2018	7	3.57	4.64	30.4%	12.5%	49.5%	31.3%	13.0%	96.7	11.6%
	L14	2	4.18	9.39	23.5%	8.8%	40.9%	59.1%	4.6%	96.8	9.3%

Glasnow pitched well against the Indians the first time he saw them this season and he’s flourished as a member of the Rays’ starting rotation. Overall, he owns a 3.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. While those numbers are appealing, he doesn’t pitch deep into games, he has one of the highest walk rates of the slate, and he is the worst pitcher at holding runners. Basically, a perfect outing tonight will likely only be five innings of work. I don’t want to bank on five perfect innings against the Indians, whose projected lineup boasts a .362 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Glasnow in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians were under-owned last night and I expect that to be the case again tonight. I will try to make a strong case for both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. Tyler Glasnow is a talented young pitcher that that held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. That’s not exactly ideal, right? The good news is that he has a 13% walk rate and that he’s the worst pitcher in the slate when it comes to holding runners. If and when Lindor and Ramirez get on base, they will be extremely aggressive. I could see them both stealing multiple bases here. Oh, I should also note that Josh Donaldson is back from the DL and expected to make his Indians’ debut. The rich get even richer.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.383	0.252	40.9%	8.7%	16.0%	35.7%	SS	$5,000	SS	$5,400	SS	$10,400
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.402	0.184	41.9%	8.9%	8.2%	43.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,400
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.407	0.330	38.1%	17.6%	11.8%	32.5%	3B	$4,700	3B	$5,100	IF/OF	$9,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.378	0.250	41.9%	8.5%	22.8%	39.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,600
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.372	0.197	38.4%	9.4%	20.1%	38.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,600
6	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.311	0.202	34.3%	13.6%	25.5%	46.3%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,900
7	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.347	0.137	37.5%	9.0%	13.3%	46.9%	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,600
8	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.351	0.156	37.0%	10.6%	17.2%	33.7%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
9	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.311	0.152	42.8%	3.9%	28.1%	32.6%	C	$3,000	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.362	0.207	39.2%	10.0%	18.1%	38.9%

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (Cash), Michael Brantley

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have one of the easiest matchups to break down. Shane Bieber is incredibly tough on righties (.281 xwOBA allowed on a 55% ground ball rate), but has been very hittable against lefties (.381 xwOBA and a 52% hard contact rate allowed). I would like to play a few Rays’ hitters here, but they are priced up across the industry and they are playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. It’s hard to justify listing any of their hitters as elite plays in a 13-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.303	0.128	29.1%	9.2%	17.5%	47.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
2	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.323	0.129	36.2%	5.3%	18.1%	47.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
3	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.351	0.173	47.5%	9.3%	25.7%	50.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,300
4	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.400	0.269	45.4%	12.3%	25.2%	41.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.279	0.163	34.0%	6.6%	22.7%	47.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,300
6	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.290	0.140	31.3%	9.2%	27.7%	47.8%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,500
7	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.337	0.186	44.6%	14.5%	27.0%	44.2%	1B	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,400	1B	$6,400
8	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.372	0.224	41.5%	13.2%	25.0%	46.3%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$4,000	2B	$7,600
9	Nick Ciuffo	LEFT	0.255	0.375	28.6%	9.1%	18.2%	42.9%	C	$2,100	C	$3,900	C	$7,500
	Team Averages		0.323	0.199	37.6%	9.9%	23.0%	46.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Miami								NY Mets
			Jose Urena							Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-240							6.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.354	41.5%	1.38	16.8%	48.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.266	0.266	24.3%	0.48	29.1%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.294	36.8%	0.62	21.0%	53.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.211	0.247	32.2%	0.38	33.7%	47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jose Urena
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:			20 of 30	Salary Rank:			15 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2017	28	5.19	3.82	15.6%	8.8%	43.1%	31.8%	18.4%	95.5	8.2%
	2018	27	4.22	4.41	18.8%	6.8%	51.0%	39.4%	14.8%	95.8	9.0%
	L14	2	4.44	3.46	18.0%	6.0%	39.5%	34.2%	5.3%	96.1	14.3%

Urena has been an easy pitcher to avoid for most of the season. For him to deserve consideration in DFS, he needs to be facing a right-handed heavy offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While the latter is true, the Mets will likely roll out a left-handed heavy lineup tonight. Run support is also a big issue, as Jacob deGrom will be on the mound for the Mets tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Urena has a low floor and a low ceiling and is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,800	Salary:			$13,500	Salary:		$26,400
	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:			2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	28	2.90	1.68	31.3%	5.7%	45.1%	28.0%	24.7%	95.8	15.1%
	L14	2	2.78	1.29	29.6%	3.7%	48.6%	27.8%	27.8%	97.4	16.1%

DeGrom was originally scheduled to pitch Sunday, then he was expected to pitch last night, and now he’s hoping to take the mound tonight. He’s looking to break the record for most consecutive starts without allowing more than three runs and he’s also looking to solidify his case for the Cy Young award. In 28 starts this season, he owns a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a soft contact rate of 25%. The Marlins can be a pesky offense at times, but I’m not overly concerned. With Chris Sale on a pitch count, deGrom is clearly the number one option in tonight’s slate.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins are facing one of the best pitchers in baseball. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They have nothing to play for. They are still the Miami Marlins.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.313	0.049	33.8%	5.7%	12.6%	47.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,700
2	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.330	0.124	36.1%	6.5%	18.7%	48.8%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.376	0.228	39.6%	7.3%	17.6%	41.8%	C	$3,400	C	$4,900	C	$9,000
4	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.344	0.116	38.2%	8.0%	18.5%	53.0%	3B	$3,100	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,300
5	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.290	0.097	26.6%	3.7%	14.4%	52.5%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600
6	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.284	0.145	40.5%	3.3%	31.3%	52.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,300
7	Peter O’Brien	RIGHT	0.294	0.125	20.0%	0.0%	37.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,100	1B	$3,700	LF	$7,600
8	Austin Dean	RIGHT	0.320	0.185	41.9%	1.8%	20.0%	41.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,600
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.079	0.048	44.4%	0.0%	59.1%	66.7%	P	$6,700	P	$7,100	P	$13,500
	Team Averages		0.292	0.124	35.7%	4.0%	25.5%	49.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are an intriguing offense to target tonight. On paper, they should have some success against Jose Urena, who has a low k-rate and who has struggled against left-handed hitters throughout his career. On the season, Urena has allowed a .354 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to lefties. While I wouldn’t call them core targets tonight, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Brandon Nimmo are all intriguing tournament options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.282	0.118	27.0%	4.9%	19.5%	50.6%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,300
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.324	0.157	30.9%	5.0%	10.8%	39.4%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,200
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.339	0.161	37.9%	15.4%	23.1%	40.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,600
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.378	0.137	35.5%	11.2%	18.3%	29.7%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.345	0.220	45.4%	8.4%	21.7%	35.6%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,500
6	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.374	0.262	38.9%	13.9%	25.3%	38.5%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	LF	$9,400
7	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.274	0.189	40.4%	2.6%	35.1%	34.0%	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,300
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.309	0.161	39.1%	9.1%	23.3%	50.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.190	0.029	0.0%	5.4%	32.4%	47.4%	P	$11,800	P	$13,500	P	$26,400
	Team Averages		0.313	0.159	32.8%	8.4%	23.3%	40.7%

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto (GPP), Jay Bruce (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (Cash), Jay Bruce (Cash), Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 11th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Houston at Detroit – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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