Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-14 02:24:53

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

LA Dodgers at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers NY Yankees
ladodgersmlb Julio Urias nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -130 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.319 3 26.5% 35.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.277 7 20.8% 27.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.322 2 29.6% 22.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.345 41 28.2% 17.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Urias
julio-urias-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,900
FPPG: 27.3 FPPG: 13.9
Pitcher Rating: 79.2 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 93.6 3.40 1.35 28.1% 7.3% 11.3% 33.3% 33.3% 22.0%
2016 13 86.9 3.80 3.69 25.5% 8.7% 10.5% 41.6% 30.5% 29.0%

Home:—ERA: 2.97 — K%: 27.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303
Away:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 23.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.343

Happy Monday everyone! Big thanks to Louiescards for covering the Grind Down yesterday. I hope everyone had a tremendous Week 1 in NFL.

This is an important series for both teams and should be a great one to watch even if you aren’t a fan of either team. Similar to most young pitchers, Urias has been much more effective at home than he has been on the road. He currently has a 4.50 ERA with a .343 wOBA allowed in his road starts this season. The Yankees have really turned their season around offensively and they have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team against left-handed pitching. Urias always has nice strikeout upside, but I slightly prefer Marcus Stroman and Robbie Ray at similar price points.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,600
FPPG: 28.0 FPPG: 13.9
Pitcher Rating: 63.5 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.0 3.30 4.55 25.8% 4.8% 12.0% 51.2% 35.7% 25.9%
2016 26 96.5 4.43 4.27 19.5% 8.4% 10.0% 48.8% 34.7% 24.6%
2015 29 93.2 4.08 4.73 18.9% 6.9% 9.1% 45.9% 32.4% 29.1%

Home:—ERA: 5.36 — K%: 19.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.342
Away:—ERA: 3.78 — K%: 18.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.323

Sabathia’s ERA may not show it, but his advanced statistics have improved dramatically in his last five starts. During that stretch, he has a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate north of 25%. Tonight marks one of the only times this season that Sabathia is actually on my radar (for tournaments, not cash games). The Dodgers are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against against left-handed pitching this season. At his price, he is an intriguing low-owned GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, but they have a mediocre run projection. CC Sabathia has been a hittable pitcher in the last two seasons, but he has been sharp in his last few outings. If you look at his splits this season, nothing stands out in particular. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .327 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.311 0.081 30.9% 0.280 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,600
2 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.395 0.243 33.8% 0.282 OF $2,400 OF $3,700
3 Corey Seager LEFT 0.347 0.185 42.0% 0.372 SS $4,100 SS $4,500
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.312 0.108 29.0% 0.260 1B $3,400 1B $3,300
5 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.301 0.150 35.0% 0.349 3B $3,200 3B $3,900
6 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.358 0.221 28.9% 0.474 OF $2,600 OF $4,200
7 Carlos Ruiz RIGHT 0.375 0.159 32.6% 0.174 C $2,600 C $3,000
8 Rob Segedin RIGHT 0.245 0.167 23.5% 0.177 OF $2,100 3B/OF $2,600
9 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.289 0.030 25.9% 0.219 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,600
Team Averages — 0.326 0.149 31.3% 0.287 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have struggled against southpaws overall, but they have obviously been a much different offense since the Gary Sanchez explosion. Over the last 30 days, they have the 12th highest team wOBA. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against the talented Julio Urias, but he has struggled on the road this season. He has also allowed a .322 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.319 0.102 22.9% 0.367 OF $3,200 OF $3,200
2 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.315 0.085 29.6% 0.398 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,000
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.247 0.231 40.0% 0.307 C $3,900 C $4,800
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.298 0.117 27.6% 0.271 2B $2,800 2B $3,400
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.323 0.147 30.4% 0.265 1B $2,400 1B $3,200
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.312 0.106 22.5% 0.183 SS $2,900 SS $2,900
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.314 0.110 26.9% 0.319 3B $2,500 3B $3,200
8 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.205 0.000 60.0% 0.414 1B $2,400 1B $2,500
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.141 0.000 40.0% 0.195 OF $2,300 OF $3,500
Team Averages — 0.275 0.100 33.3% 0.302 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rob Refsnyder, Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Washington
nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard washingtonmlb A.J. Cole
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -125 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.298 15 27.1% 25.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.333 4 31.6% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.260 14 24.7% 31.0% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.279 3 18.0% 23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,900 Salary: $11,700
FPPG: 39.4 FPPG: 21.8
Pitcher Rating: 93.1 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 102.4 3.68 1.38 25.8% 8.9% 13.5% 53.8% 30.0% 17.3%
2016 27 97.9 3.00 2.48 29.0% 5.8% 14.5% 50.5% 27.3% 27.0%
2015 24 99.2 2.95 3.24 27.5% 5.1% 12.2% 46.5% 33.6% 24.6%

Home:—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 28.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.249
Away:—ERA: 3.29 — K%: 27.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.310

Syndergaard is having one of the best seasons of any pitcher in baseball. He currently sports a 3.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 5.8%. He generates a lot of swings and misses and he induces a high ground ball rate. I would give him a small boost if he was playing at home, but he is still the number one pitching target on the board. The Nationals have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season.

A.J. Cole
a-j-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $8,200
FPPG: 30.5 FPPG: 16.9
Pitcher Rating: 74.0 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 99.0 4.13 4.56 26.0% 7.3% 10.6% 25.8% 64.5% 22.6%
2016 4 99.0 4.13 4.56 26.0% 7.3% 10.6% 25.8% 64.5% 22.6%
2015 1 97.0 3.27 5.79 20.5% 2.3% 8.3% 36.4% 36.4% 32.4%

Home:—ERA: 5.40 — K%: 30.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.315
Away:—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309

Cole’s first four starts of the season have yielded mixed results, but he is a talented young right-hander that provides good upside at his price point. He has a 26% strikeout rate in the majors this season and he posted a 20.5% strikeout rate in Triple-A ball. Run support is obviously an issue with Syndergaard pitching opposite him, but Cole is only a small underdog at home. He carries some value as a tournament play, but I will be looking elsewhere in cash.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball, ranking third in team wOBA over the last month of play. Unfortunately, they have a mediocre matchup against A.J. Cole and they have to face him in a pitcher’s ballpark. The Mets have the fifth lowest run projection in the slate, which makes them an easy fade in cash games. Curtis Granderson is an intriguing one-off target, as he has a .480 wOBA in the last two weeks.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.292 0.104 20.5% 0.319 3B $3,000 3B/SS $4,100
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.328 0.187 32.2% 0.431 SS $3,400 SS $3,900
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.377 0.264 37.0% 0.354 OF $4,300 OF $4,500
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.363 0.232 37.7% 0.480 OF $3,500 OF $4,600
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.334 0.252 38.8% 0.310 OF $3,200 OF $4,400
6 Kelly Johnson LEFT 0.316 0.163 31.4% 0.278 3B $2,600 2B/3B $3,100
7 James Loney LEFT 0.312 0.100 24.6% 0.291 1B $2,600 1B $2,900
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.227 0.109 30.4% 0.236 C $2,100 C $2,400
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.277 0.208 35.9% 0.219 P $10,900 P $11,700
Team Averages — 0.314 0.180 32.1% 0.324 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals draw the worst matchup in the slate, as they have the unfortunate task of facing Noah Syndergaard. In addition to the elite strikeout rate and the dominant splits against left and right-handed hitters, Syndergaard has pitched well against the Nationals in his career. They should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.378 0.230 31.4% 0.394 OF $4,300 2B/OF $4,800
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.297 0.140 33.8% 0.273 OF $3,600 OF $2,800
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.379 0.226 36.4% 0.374 2B $3,700 2B $4,500
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.422 0.282 36.8% 0.277 OF $3,900 OF $4,000
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.331 0.157 35.9% 0.339 3B $3,600 3B $3,300
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.281 0.154 32.6% 0.199 1B $2,600 1B $2,300
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.303 0.155 30.0% 0.233 SS $2,700 SS $2,400
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.284 0.120 26.6% 0.420 C $2,700 C $2,200
9 A.J. Cole RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $6,000 P $8,200
Team Averages — 0.297 0.163 29.3% 0.279 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Philadelphia
pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova philadelphiamlb Alec Asher
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -142 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.366 18 35.7% 11.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.422 4 37.7% 11.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.308 18 32.1% 21.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.361 4 25.4% 9.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $10,600
FPPG: 24.9 FPPG: 12.5
Pitcher Rating: 68.3 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 79.8 3.26 2.38 19.5% 1.6% 8.8% 58.3% 26.0% 28.0%
2016 22 92.5 3.91 4.13 17.9% 4.5% 9.0% 53.1% 28.7% 35.0%
2015 17 89.9 4.58 5.07 15.3% 8.0% 7.8% 49.0% 31.7% 32.3%

Home:—ERA: 4.07 — K%: 16.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.318
Away:—ERA: 5.03 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.356

Nova has been in good form over his last five starts, but he has such a low strikeout rate that it’s hard to like him as a play in daily fantasy. In 2015, he had a 15.3% strikeout rate and this season hasn’t been a lot better. He draws a favorable matchup against the Phillies, but he has to face them on the road in a fairly neutral ballpark for pitchers. I see the appeal, but I’m higher on Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman at similar price points.

Alec Asher
alec-asher-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,300
FPPG: 30.0 FPPG: 15.7
Pitcher Rating: 33.7 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 75.0 8.01 0.00 0.0% 4.6% 2.7% 20.0% 55.0% 28.6%
2016 1 75.0 8.01 0.00 0.0% 4.6% 2.7% 20.0% 55.0% 28.6%
2015 7 71.6 5.34 9.31 11.6% 7.3% 7.8% 36.1% 45.4% 32.4%

Home:—ERA: 10.80 — K%: 11.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.497
Away:—ERA: 4.32 — K%: 8.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.257

Asher has really struggled in his first eight major league starts, posting a SIERA close to 6.00 with a strikeout rate of only 11.6%. He has been an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has struggled with hitters from both sides of the plate. He grades out as the worst pitching option in the entire slate. He should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season, but they see a small ballpark boost tonight and they draw one of the best matchups on the board. The sample size is small (eight starts), but Alec Asher has allowed a .422 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his major league career. The Pirates are a sneaky offense to target in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.354 0.190 36.4% 0.608 SS $2,300 2B/3B $3,600
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.400 0.185 42.0% 0.319 1B $2,600 1B/OF $3,100
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.350 0.181 38.3% 0.292 OF $3,400 OF $4,400
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.332 0.172 33.4% 0.255 OF $3,600 OF $4,800
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.371 0.219 37.1% 0.676 3B $3,500 3B $5,000
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.316 0.074 26.9% 0.342 C $2,800 C $3,400
7 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.294 0.162 34.3% 0.244 OF $2,200 OF/SS $3,900
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.276 0.087 24.4% 0.295 SS $2,300 SS $3,400
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.139 0.000 0.0% 0.176 P $7,300 P $10,600
Team Averages — 0.315 0.141 30.3% 0.356 — — — —

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Starling Marte, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies struggle against right-handed pitching, they have one of the lowest implied team totals in the slate, and they are facing a pitcher that has been in good form in his last few starts. There aren’t many reasons to like the Phillies’ offense here, even though Ivan Nova has allowed a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.313 0.104 26.3% 0.326 2B $3,300 2B $3,900
2 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.690 0.000 0.0% 0.173 OF $2,400
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.318 0.179 28.4% 0.220 3B $2,800 3B $3,100
4 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.325 0.250 42.7% 0.308 1B $2,700 1B $3,000
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.291 0.148 30.1% 0.219 C $2,600 C $2,900
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.295 0.140 28.3% 0.335 SS $2,400 SS $3,600
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.343 0.144 29.8% 0.257 OF $2,900 OF $3,700
8 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.324 0.182 32.8% 0.183 OF $2,500 OF $3,300
9 Alec Asher RIGHT 0.305 0.143 50.0% 0.000 P $6,000 P $4,300
Team Averages — 0.356 0.143 29.8% 0.225 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Howard

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Tampa Bay Toronto
tampabaymlb Drew Smyly torontomlb Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -190 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.294 7 31.0% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.310 12 31.6% 19.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.325 34 29.9% 22.4% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.306 10 28.5% 20.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Smyly
drew-smyly-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 27.6 FPPG: 14.4
Pitcher Rating: 52.7 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 95.0 4.86 5.08 21.4% 8.6% 12.0% 25.6% 61.0% 25.6%
2016 27 96.6 4.13 5.05 23.2% 6.7% 10.8% 30.3% 50.0% 29.6%
2015 12 94.7 3.25 3.10 28.0% 7.3% 11.4% 36.8% 44.3% 31.6%

Home:—ERA: 4.29 — K%: 27.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away:—ERA: 4.64 — K%: 22.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339

Smyly always provides nice strikeout upside when he toes the rubber, but he has really struggled with consistency. He hasn’t been great on the road and he draws one of the most difficult matchups in baseball. He has to face a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ offense in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. As a large underdog in a game that is expected to be high scoring, there is no reason to look to Smyly tonight.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $9,000
FPPG: 29.5 FPPG: 14.9
Pitcher Rating: 90.1 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.0 2.72 3.52 25.2% 3.8% 12.2% 61.5% 18.7% 29.4%
2016 28 96.8 3.46 4.55 20.1% 5.7% 9.3% 60.5% 20.3% 31.3%
2015 4 93.3 3.28 1.67 17.5% 5.8% 7.2% 64.1% 17.9% 21.8%

Home:—ERA: 4.32 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.305
Away:—ERA: 4.04 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Stroman has never been an elite strikeout pitcher, but that seems to slowly be changing. In his last five starts, he has a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.2% and a walk rate of 3.8%. He has always had one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball and when you add an above-average k-rate, that can be a lethal combination for a pitcher. I have him ranked as the second best pitcher in the slate and he is very affordable across the industry.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

I could basically just copy and paste the blurb about Marcus Stroman here. He has been in good form, his strikeouts are trending upward, and he has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball. Even though the Rays see a favorable ballpark shift, they still have the sixth lowest implied team total on the board.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.337 0.143 31.5% 0.454 2B $3,500 2B $4,300
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.323 0.173 27.8% 0.480 OF $3,700 OF $4,300
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.329 0.198 33.4% 0.155 3B $3,400 3B $3,600
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.347 0.229 34.7% 0.230 SS $3,000 1B/SS $3,700
5 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.322 0.209 35.1% 0.317 2B $3,000 1B/OF $3,500
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.256 0.119 33.3% 0.234 OF $2,000 OF $2,300
7 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.349 0.264 34.0% 0.312 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
8 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.309 0.168 32.1% 0.347 OF $3,100 OF $3,500
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.258 0.100 22.8% 0.332 C $2,000 C $2,800
Team Averages — 0.314 0.178 31.6% 0.318 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Toronto

Do you remember at the start of the season when the Blue Jays were ranked near the bottom of the majors in most offensive categories in baseball. With their lineup, we knew it was only a matter of time before that changed. They are now ranked seventh in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching on the season. All of the right-handed hitters are in play against Drew Smyly.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.334 0.161 27.3% 0.316 2B $3,300 2B $3,900
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.422 0.298 40.8% 0.280 3B $4,100 3B $4,800
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.367 0.246 38.4% 0.362 1B $4,100 1B $5,400
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.347 0.220 37.3% 0.314 OF $3,600 OF $4,300
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.355 0.186 36.2% 0.278 C $3,200 C $3,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.364 0.180 39.4% 0.341 SS $3,000 SS $3,800
7 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.366 0.239 31.5% 0.277 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
8 Dioner Navarro SWITCH 0.313 0.198 25.5% 0.201 C $2,000 C $3,100
9 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.304 0.106 28.7% 0.284 OF $2,500 OF $3,500
Team Averages — 0.352 0.204 33.9% 0.295 — — — —

Elite Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson detroitmlb Matt Boyd
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -180 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.339 17 30.4% 15.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.373 8 31.3% 13.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.312 20 27.6% 18.1% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.349 23 33.3% 20.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,100
FPPG: 22.3 FPPG: 9.9
Pitcher Rating: 39.7 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 101.4 5.04 6.10 15.2% 9.4% 9.5% 45.1% 29.4% 39.4%
2016 21 98.5 4.73 5.34 15.8% 8.3% 9.6% 49.3% 28.6% 31.1%
2015 32 101.1 4.12 3.84 17.7% 7.9% 9.8% 53.4% 26.8% 27.7%

Home:—ERA: 4.28 — K%: 17.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329
Away:—ERA: 4.58 — K%: 15.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.322

Gibson has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In 21 starts, he has a 4.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. He may induce a high ground ball rate, but he still gives up a fair share of hard contact. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against the Tigers, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Gibson can be avoided in all league formats.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,900
FPPG: 25.0 FPPG: 12.8
Pitcher Rating: 68.9 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 100.8 4.43 2.40 19.0% 6.6% 11.1% 41.1% 43.3% 30.0%
2016 15 99.2 4.35 3.89 20.3% 7.5% 9.5% 40.6% 42.5% 31.9%
2015 12 83.6 4.83 7.53 17.1% 7.9% 8.2% 31.9% 51.9% 34.0%

Home:—ERA: 4.10 — K%: 18.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.314
Away:—ERA: 6.89 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.401

Boyd has a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts, but his peripheral stats don’t leap off the page. On the season, he has a 4.35 SIERA with an average strikeout rate. The plus here is that he is a large favorite and that he is pitching at home, but that’s not enough of a reason to use him. The Twins are ranked fifth in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have one of the lowest run projections in the slate, even though their matchup against Matt Boyd is an exploitable one. In the last two seasons, Boyd has allowed a .349 wOBA to right-handed hitters. I’m not going to be targeting the Twins in cash games, but there are a few intriguing tournament options in this lineup.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.364 0.271 33.1% 0.506 2B $3,700 2B $5,600
2 Jorge Polanco RIGHT 0.390 0.156 27.0% 0.327 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,100
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.356 0.224 45.7% 0.312 OF $3,300 3B/OF $3,900
4 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.464 0.240 46.4% 0.251 1B $3,100 1B $3,500
5 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.398 0.202 31.2% 0.539 OF $3,000 OF $4,200
6 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.314 0.182 28.3% 0.199 SS $2,500 SS $3,100
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.309 0.142 28.1% 0.300 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
8 John Murphy RIGHT 0.322 0.170 31.3% 0.425 C $2,000 C $2,600
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.234 0.123 33.8% 0.555 OF $3,000 OF $3,700
Team Averages — 0.350 0.190 33.9% 0.379 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers are notorious for letting us down in favorable spots, especially when they are at home. Even though that is always in the back of my mind, you have to like their matchup against Kyle Gibson. On the season, he has allowed a .391 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .330 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.334 0.151 29.0% 0.432 2B $3,900 2B $4,800
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.322 0.092 21.4% 0.261 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.396 0.215 39.9% 0.370 1B $3,700 1B $5,200
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.309 0.162 36.0% 0.235 C $3,400 1B $3,600
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.386 0.248 40.7% 0.483 OF $3,500 OF $4,500
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.337 0.206 36.8% 0.418 OF $3,300 OF $4,200
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.253 0.080 25.1% 0.267 C $2,200 C $2,800
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.285 0.083 21.7% 0.312 SS $2,200 SS $3,300
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.249 0.036 23.9% 0.690 SS $2,100 SS $2,700
Team Averages — 0.319 0.141 30.5% 0.385 — — — —

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious