Sign In Get the App $ $

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-18 17:54:25

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Pittsburgh
Article Image Eric Skoglund Article Image Jameson Taillon
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-210 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.345 37.5% 3.60 15.2% 45.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.328 32.8% 0.98 19.0% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.399 45.2% 1.35 18.3% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.269 28.9% 0.92 25.3% 50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eric Skoglund
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 23 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 5.83 9.50 15.1% 12.9% 36.4% 34.3% 13.4% 91.5 6.5%
2018 10 4.54 6.19 17.7% 7.0% 44.6% 43.8% 13.5% 91.6 7.9%
L14 1 4.64 2.57 15.4% 11.5% 66.7% 36.8% 0.0% 91.5 5.3%

There are 15 games on the schedule today, but the Red Sox and Yankees game is not included in the main slate. I’m seeing their start time as 1:05 ET and 7:05 ET, which is likely why the sites decided to keep the game off their main slates. We start with the Royals and Pirates in a game that doesn’t mean much. Both teams are well out of the playoff picture. Skoglund has a low strikeout rate, a high hard contact rate, and a bad matchup against the Pirates. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .352 with a walk rate of 13% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Skoglund in all formats.

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 6 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28 Salary Rank: 7 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1% 95.3 8.2%
2018 29 3.84 3.37 22.0% 5.9% 46.9% 31.0% 19.1% 95.3 10.4%
L14 2 4.02 2.25 19.6% 3.9% 38.9% 26.3% 13.2% 95.2 6.6%

Taillon is a pitcher that I have a ton of respect for. In 29 starts this season, he owns a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 47%. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact and he’s facing a strikeout-happy American League team at home in a pitcher-friendly National League ballpark. At the very least, he deserves consideration in tournaments. The only reason why I don’t have him as a core play is how good the Royals have been offensively over the last couple of weeks.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is viable as an SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

I’ve been targeting the Royals as often as anyone over the last few weeks, but this is where I hop off the bandwagon. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they lose the use of the DH in this series. Add in a matchup against Jameson Taillon and they become an easy fade in all formats. On the season, Taillon has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .330 xwOBA and under 33% hard contact rate. The one and only hitter on my radar is Adalberto Mondesi, who has been swinging a hot bat. He has elite stolen base upside against Taillon, who is one of the worst pitchers in baseball when it comes to holding runners.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.344 0.116 36.6% 9.3% 16.2% 37.5% 2B $3,700 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
2 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.307 0.188 38.3% 3.8% 28.0% 42.3% SS $3,500 2B/SS $4,600 2B $8,900
3 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.377 0.154 40.0% 9.1% 20.9% 42.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.363 0.225 46.4% 2.5% 19.6% 33.9% C $3,000 C $4,000 C $7,500
5 Ryan O’Hearn LEFT 0.475 0.458 56.5% 15.2% 21.2% 30.6% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 1B $7,400
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.314 0.150 36.8% 6.1% 22.4% 32.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
7 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.309 0.148 32.4% 9.2% 31.7% 44.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 LF $5,500
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.271 0.076 31.4% 5.8% 13.7% 44.8% 3B $2,200 3B/SS $2,800 SS $5,500
9 Eric Skoglund LEFT P $5,700 P $5,000 P $10,200
Team Averages 0.345 0.189 39.8% 7.6% 21.7% 38.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adalberto Mondesi

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates aren’t an offense that I load up on very often, but it’s hard to overlook a matchup against Eric Skoglund. In addition to having a strikeout rate of only 18%, he has allowed a .345 xwOBA to lefties and a .399 xwOBA to righties this season. Starling Marte (.357 xwOBA against southpaws with stolen base upside) is my favorite target here, but the young bats of Pablo Reyes and Jordan Luplow are also viable if they are batting near the top of the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Pablo Reyes RIGHT 0.617 0.600 40.0% 37.5% 0.0% 20.0% 2B $2,200 3B/OF $4,000 2B $7,200
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.357 0.192 35.4% 6.6% 21.9% 55.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 CF $9,200
3 Jordan Luplow RIGHT 0.349 0.222 13.6% 12.9% 16.1% 36.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 LF $7,700
4 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.369 0.127 34.6% 17.8% 22.2% 36.5% C $3,000 C $3,900 C $7,200
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.308 0.161 30.3% 11.8% 22.8% 42.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
6 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.348 0.244 33.3% 4.5% 20.5% 42.4% OF $2,000 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,300
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.337 0.191 38.6% 6.3% 19.8% 37.1% 2B $2,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.351 0.121 32.9% 7.3% 13.6% 35.3% SS $2,200 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.136 0.000 20.0% 8.3% 50.0% 66.7% P $9,400 P $9,200 P $17,700
Team Averages 0.352 0.206 31.0% 12.6% 20.8% 41.4%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Pablo Reyes, Jordan Luplow, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
Article Image Steven Matz Article Image Aaron Nola
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-190 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.283 12.9% 0.62 18.6% 72.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.254 0.277 26.5% 0.86 27.5% 48.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.327 38.4% 1.78 24.0% 42.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.260 24.5% 0.55 25.7% 51.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,300
Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28 Salary Rank: 8 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 4.71 6.08 16.1% 6.4% 47.1% 32.9% 21.9% 93.1 7.1%
2018 27 4.06 4.18 22.9% 8.3% 48.6% 33.0% 17.8% 93.4 9.1%
L14 2 3.77 3.97 27.9% 9.3% 37.0% 37.0% 22.2% 93.7 9.9%

Matz has been in decent form recently, but I have little to no interest in him on the road against the Phillies in a 14-game slate. He gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters, he might be the worst pitcher in baseball when it comes to holding runners, and the Phillies’ lineup is loaded with firepower. In fact, their projected lineup for tonight’s game has six batters with at least a .325 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Matz in all formats.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $10,900 Salary: $21,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28 Salary Rank: 3 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6% 92.0 10.8%
2018 30 3.42 2.42 26.6% 6.7% 49.9% 25.5% 21.8% 92.4 12.1%
L14 2 3.17 5.25 27.7% 4.3% 45.2% 38.7% 22.6% 92.1 10.7%

This slate is absolutely loaded with elite options. It includes Aaron Nola, Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, Corey Kluber, and Stephen Strasburg. And outside of Snell, they all feel a little underpriced. This is a great night to build a few different lineups in order to get exposure to all of these great arms. Dollar for dollar, Nola may top the list. In 30 starts this season, he owns a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 50%. As I continue to say, the Mets’ offense is underrated against right-handed pitching, but their projected lineup has a 21% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia, but draw one of the worst matchups on the board. Aaron Nola has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates and on the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA this season. We don’t need to get cute here, there are better ways to differentiate your lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.291 0.138 28.0% 4.8% 18.9% 49.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
2 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.318 0.157 29.5% 4.1% 9.6% 39.5% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 2B $7,300
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.345 0.180 36.5% 14.8% 22.2% 40.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 LF $9,300
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.161 35.1% 11.9% 18.7% 29.8% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,900 RF $7,500
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.347 0.221 43.7% 9.2% 20.7% 34.5% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
6 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.379 0.258 36.6% 14.9% 23.2% 40.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 LF $9,400
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.278 0.235 39.1% 2.0% 33.7% 28.1% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.315 0.167 36.4% 9.9% 22.4% 49.2% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Steven Matz LEFT 0.289 0.129 14.8% 2.9% 17.6% 44.0% P $8,100 P $8,300 P $16,300
Team Averages 0.326 0.183 33.3% 8.3% 20.8% 39.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies don’t have an elite matchup, but they are a sneaky stack for tournaments. I like to use rSB (can be found on FanGraphs) to look at how well a pitcher holds runners. I’m not lying when I tell you that Steven Matz has a -4 rSB. That’s the lowest that I have ever seen for a pitcher. Add in the fact that he has given up a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters and we have plenty of upside in this home run-friendly ballpark. The Phillies are expensive on DraftKings, but are a dirt cheap stack on FanDuel.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.327 0.056 29.5% 13.3% 18.8% 57.9% 2B $2,600 2B $4,500 2B $9,000
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.333 0.123 25.0% 19.0% 19.0% 29.5% OF $3,600 OF $5,100 IF/OF $9,400
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.350 0.167 37.5% 19.4% 25.8% 35.9% OF $2,100 3B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,500
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.410 0.245 42.0% 5.5% 20.2% 46.9% C $3,000 C $4,600 C $9,100
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.364 0.218 32.8% 10.8% 9.6% 42.7% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,500
6 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.350 0.197 38.5% 13.5% 28.1% 42.3% OF $2,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,200
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.254 0.113 28.0% 4.9% 33.6% 27.0% SS $2,000 SS $3,000 SS $5,700
8 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.077 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 46.7% 66.7% P $10,700 P $10,900 P $21,400
9 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.331 0.323 20.0% 0.0% 19.4% 36.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 CF $9,100
Team Averages 0.311 0.160 29.5% 9.6% 24.6% 42.8%

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez (FD), Rhys Hoskins (FD), Jose Bautista (FD), Aaron Altherr (FD)

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (DK), Rhys Hoskins (DK), Jose Bautista (DK), Aaron Altherr (DK), Wilson Ramos (DK), Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Toronto Baltimore
Article Image Aaron Sanchez Article Image Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-100 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.354 34.0% 0.99 15.4% 50.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.403 0.394 35.7% 2.10 17.7% 30.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.358 34.0% 0.81 22.0% 48.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.290 35.0% 2.28 31.3% 36.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 19 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3% 94.9 5.6%
2018 19 4.99 4.90 18.7% 12.1% 49.4% 34.0% 20.1% 93.7 9.8%
L14 2 3.79 2.77 27.5% 9.8% 46.9% 34.4% 12.5% 93.8 10.6%

Sanchez is basically terrible unless he is facing the Red Sox. It’s the strangest split that I have seen all year. His numbers are absolutely amazing when he faces Boston. Against everyone else, he struggles mightily. That trend will be put to the test tonight against Baltimore, who may have the worst offense in baseball. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .286 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: After Borucki dominated the Orioles last night, I won’t talk anyone out of using Sanchez at $5,900 on DraftKings.

Dylan Bundy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6% 92.2 11.4%
2018 28 3.97 5.48 24.3% 7.2% 33.3% 35.4% 15.0% 91.6 12.5%
L14 2 4.36 7.20 25.0% 11.4% 37.0% 32.1% 17.9% 91.2 10.9%

Bundy is one of the top tournament plays of the slate. Lineup building on single-pitcher sites is simple – start with one of the five aces and build from there. On multi-pitcher sites, start with one of the five aces and look to pair him up with a cheap SP2. Bundy is firmly in play for me, as he owns a 31% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He should have the platoon advantage tonight against the Blue Jays, who he has pitched well against in the past.

Quick Breakdown: At $6,400 on DraftKings, Bundy is an elite tournament play.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have one of the easiest matchups to break down. Dylan Bundy has held right-handed hitters to a .290 xwOBA with a 31% strikeout rate, but has allowed a .394 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. Billy McKinney has been on my radar for a month and that’s not going to change tonight. The matchup sets up well for Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Yangervis Solarte, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.364 0.194 32.1% 8.6% 24.7% 41.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 LF $7,500
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.327 0.146 32.5% 3.6% 24.0% 39.5% SS $2,900 2B/SS $3,900 2B $7,300
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.400 0.259 40.2% 15.7% 26.9% 33.8% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.441 0.231 45.4% 13.0% 19.9% 44.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
5 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.348 0.273 37.4% 5.8% 25.0% 34.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,700 RF $9,100
6 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.325 0.136 29.2% 6.5% 15.9% 43.9% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,600 3B $7,400
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.348 0.169 34.4% 3.8% 18.9% 34.2% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.349 0.186 33.2% 3.8% 12.8% 40.9% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,200
9 Reese McGuire LEFT 0.440 0.200 33.3% 9.1% 9.1% 22.2% C $2,200 C $3,600 C $7,200
Team Averages 0.371 0.199 35.3% 7.8% 19.7% 37.3%

Elite Plays – Billy McKinney

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles are a tough offense to trust right now. They have a serious lack of talent and they are coming off of a dreadful performance against Ryan Borucki. Tonight they are facing a ground ball pitcher in Aaron Sanchez. While he has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate, this Orioles’ lineup is loaded with ground ball hitters. This matchup will likely come down to BABIP and she can be a fickle beast. In a 14-game slate, I will likely avoid the situation completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.299 0.198 27.9% 7.9% 12.9% 54.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.291 0.120 29.9% 7.8% 26.0% 57.3% 2B $3,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,000
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.329 0.156 32.7% 4.7% 17.4% 43.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
4 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.377 0.195 37.9% 7.3% 24.0% 48.2% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.294 0.128 35.7% 8.2% 36.1% 39.1% 1B $2,100 1B $3,000 IF/OF $5,600
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.301 0.120 32.1% 5.2% 25.3% 46.2% SS $2,600 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,300
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.302 0.156 28.3% 7.4% 24.2% 41.8% 3B $2,400 3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,700
8 DJ Stewart LEFT 0.100 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 16.7% 50.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 LF $5,900
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.280 0.075 33.3% 6.6% 35.3% 47.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,700
Team Averages 0.286 0.128 29.8% 6.1% 24.2% 47.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (GPP), Chris Davis (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Cleveland
Article Image Carlos Rodon Article Image Corey Kluber
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-240 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.347 31.0% 1.69 20.4% 44.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.290 37.3% 1.34 28.3% 41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.308 29.5% 0.91 18.2% 39.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.254 0.298 35.4% 0.80 23.0% 46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Rodon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 12 4.21 4.15 25.6% 10.4% 44.1% 32.1% 12.8% 93.1 10.3%
2018 17 4.99 3.10 18.6% 10.6% 40.3% 29.8% 17.2% 93.0 9.3%
L14 2 6.50 5.06 18.0% 20.0% 40.0% 53.3% 10.0% 92.5 8.7%

Rodon was a regression candidate earlier in the season and we’ve seen that come to fruition in his last couple of starts. A pitcher with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate will eventually find trouble. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Indians, whose projected lineup boasts a .339 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of 18% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodon in all formats.

Corey Kluber
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,300
Salary Rank: 1 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 4 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4% 92.6 15.6%
2018 30 3.29 2.91 25.6% 3.8% 44.3% 36.3% 15.0% 92.1 11.3%
L14 2 2.16 5.40 40.0% 5.7% 38.9% 38.9% 11.1% 91.7 17.5%

The Indians don’t have much to play for at this point and they are already planning for the postseason. They pushed back Kluber’s start in order to have him on regular rest for the first playoff game. Once we get into next week, I will start to worry about their motivation and about them potentially pulling pitchers early. For tonight, I will be playing Kluber with confidence. His strikeouts have been trending upward and he draws one of the best matchups on the board — the White Sox projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .308 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are one of a handful of offenses that we can immediately cross off our list of potential targets. Corey Kluber has an elite strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.323 0.190 37.1% 10.2% 33.6% 34.1% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,400
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.308 0.159 28.3% 7.4% 18.4% 47.0% 2B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.371 0.195 36.5% 5.9% 18.3% 43.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.336 0.275 37.4% 5.5% 32.3% 42.9% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,500
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.325 0.215 32.8% 3.5% 25.8% 45.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
6 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.318 0.171 31.7% 8.1% 22.7% 41.9% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,700
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.356 0.168 40.8% 3.6% 27.7% 40.8% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $5,900
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.270 0.164 28.8% 5.1% 25.7% 47.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
9 Ryan Cordell RIGHT 0.165 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 60.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.308 0.171 30.4% 5.5% 25.9% 44.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

With so many elite arms on the mound tonight, it will be tough to stack one of these premier offenses. If you can somehow make it work, the Indians should be on your radar. They are going to be very low owned and they are facing a pitcher that could have some serious regression coming his way. The argument against Cleveland is that they have not hit Carlos Rodon well in the past. Their current roster has a .246 wOBA with 46 strikeouts in 200 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.402 0.214 42.5% 11.4% 11.9% 45.1% SS $4,500 SS $5,500 SS $10,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.333 0.102 26.2% 4.1% 10.3% 49.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,500 LF $9,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.344 0.217 35.5% 7.6% 9.3% 37.1% 2B $4,800 2B/3B $5,700 IF/OF $10,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.379 0.180 45.4% 16.4% 18.7% 29.1% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
5 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.320 0.204 43.3% 10.9% 34.5% 46.7% 3B $3,300 3B $4,500 3B $9,300
6 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.298 0.081 35.5% 2.6% 15.8% 54.8% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,500
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.349 0.218 35.0% 9.9% 17.4% 36.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 RF $6,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.381 0.208 45.8% 8.0% 25.7% 29.2% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,300
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.248 0.021 31.1% 5.0% 21.8% 46.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,900
Team Averages 0.339 0.161 37.8% 8.4% 18.4% 41.6%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor (GPP), Jose Ramirez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (Cash), Jose Ramirez (Cash), Edwin Encarnacion (GPP), Josh Donaldson (GPP), Yandy Diaz (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Detroit
Article Image Jake Odorizzi Article Image Daniel Norris
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-102 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.350 36.4% 1.31 20.6% 25.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.326 30.0% 1.42 24.1% 42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.344 36.3% 1.04 24.8% 30.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.387 44.4% 1.96 27.2% 22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.90 4.14 21.0% 10.1% 30.6% 36.8% 15.3% 91.6 11.2%
2018 30 4.50 4.41 22.9% 9.6% 28.1% 36.3% 19.6% 91.0 10.3%
L14 2 5.99 4.50 18.4% 14.3% 25.0% 46.9% 12.5% 91.8 9.8%

Odorizzi is typically in play when he’s facing an offense that doesn’t hit many home runs. Throughout his career, the long ball has been his biggest issue. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. If you are looking for a reason to play Odorizzi, I’ll give you a good one — he’s facing the Tigers, who have the third fewest home runs of any team in baseball. Odorizzi has plenty of strikeout upside here, as Detroit’s projected lineup has an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi is viable as an SP2 in tournaments, but I’d rather save a little money and play the likes of Lucchesi or Bundy.

Daniel Norris
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 21 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 18 4.94 5.31 18.7% 9.6% 38.8% 41.7% 16.3% 93.2 9.2%
2018 5 3.87 6.14 26.5% 9.1% 26.8% 41.0% 18.1% 90.0 11.2%
L14 2 4.56 7.45 22.7% 4.6% 9.7% 38.7% 25.8% 90.9 9.5%

Norris isn’t nearly as bad as his 6.14 ERA, but he’s not a pitcher that I trust in DFS. He’s an extremely fly-ball pitcher with a 41% hard contact rate. On a positive note, he gets to face the Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball against southpaws this season. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .299 with a strikeout rate of 26% against lefties. At the very least, he’s worth a look in large-field tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Both pitchers in this game deserve tournament consideration, but they both have low floors.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw an exploitable matchup against Daniel Norris, but they have been dreadful against left-handed pitching this season. They have a total of two hitters with an xwOBA over .315 against southpaws. In case you didn’t know, that’s not very good. With that said, Logan Forsythe, Robbie Grossman, and Tyler Austin are all dirt cheap and are worthy tournament fliers if you need value.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.298 0.054 42.7% 9.8% 18.2% 42.7% 2B $2,200 2B $3,000 2B $5,600
2 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.260 0.151 36.2% 1.1% 20.2% 31.8% SS $3,200 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
3 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.314 0.122 27.5% 13.4% 18.7% 39.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
4 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.387 0.295 35.3% 10.1% 31.5% 41.2% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.264 0.191 28.6% 11.4% 35.4% 40.5% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
6 Willians Astudillo RIGHT 0.369 0.167 31.3% 0.0% 11.1% 43.8% C $2,500 3B/C $3,400 C $6,300
7 Jake Cave LEFT 0.266 0.196 27.6% 3.6% 41.8% 48.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,400
8 Johnny Field RIGHT 0.301 0.175 39.7% 3.5% 27.1% 39.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 RF $6,300
9 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.235 0.081 24.2% 8.3% 26.0% 48.3% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,800
Team Averages 0.299 0.159 32.6% 6.8% 25.6% 41.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Robbie Grossman, Tyler Austin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

More often than not, I target hitters against Jake Odorizzi, but the Tigers are a tough sell in this matchup. The way to attack Odorizzi is with home run hitters and the Tigers don’t have many of those in their lineup. Nick Castellanos is a tremendous tournament play. His price has come down a bit across the industry and he boasts a .382 xwOBA with a .191 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.289 0.170 33.7% 11.6% 26.4% 38.4% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
2 Christin Stewart LEFT 0.237 0.045 31.3% 8.3% 25.0% 43.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,800 LF $7,400
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.382 0.191 47.7% 7.0% 23.8% 34.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.339 0.086 38.5% 7.0% 9.8% 39.0% C $2,100 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
5 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.293 0.159 35.6% 3.6% 22.1% 45.1% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 LF $6,300
6 Ronny Rodriguez RIGHT 0.269 0.083 34.9% 7.5% 23.3% 48.1% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,000 2B $5,700
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.281 0.094 38.3% 5.3% 24.7% 38.9% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,800
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.295 0.175 32.5% 4.1% 32.2% 41.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
9 Dawel Lugo RIGHT 0.269 0.083 34.2% 5.9% 13.7% 70.7% 2B $2,100 2B $3,500 3B $6,300
Team Averages 0.295 0.121 36.3% 6.7% 22.3% 44.4%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – James McCann (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious