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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-04 19:26:16

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Washington – 11:05 AM ET

Boston Washington
bostonmlb Eduardo Rodriguez washingtonmlb Erick Fedde
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-101 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.306 33.3% 88.2 35.6% 39.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.412 36.4% 92.3 13.8% 52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.300 26.6% 87.5 22.2% 39.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.420 0.394 38.6% 86.9 19.0% 51.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eduardo Rodriguez
eduardo-rodriguez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.05 4.19 25.8% 8.6% 34.9% 30.8% 18.6%
2018 16 3.77 4.11 24.8% 7.4% 39.8% 27.7% 19.4%
L14 2 6.25 8.10 8.2% 8.2% 30.8% 37.5% 17.5%

Happy 4th of July everyone! There are seven early games on the schedule, three are included in the early slate on FanDuel and all seven are included in the early slate on DraftKings. Rodriguez has been sharp all season with the exception of his last two starts where he posted a 6.25 SIERA with as many walks as strikeouts. He’s catching the Nationals at a bad time, as they are finally starting to heat up offensively. In what amounts to a pick ‘em game with a total of 9.0 runs, both pitchers are risky fantasy options.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Rodriguez in all formats.

Erick Fedde
erick-fedde-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 25 of 28 Salary Rank: 22 of 28 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 4.45 9.39 19.7% 10.5% 61.7% 34.6% 15.4%
2018 5 4.36 6.00 16.4% 7.8% 51.7% 37.5% 15.9%
L14 3 4.75 6.06 13.9% 9.7% 51.9% 32.7% 14.6%

Fedde hasn’t shown much upside in his first five starts of the season, posting a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16%. While he has a high ground ball rate, he hasn’t been able to turn that into a low hard contact rate. He doesn’t offer much fantasy appeal in a matchup against the Red Sox, who have one of the most talented offenses in baseball. Boston’s projected lineup has a .399 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fedde is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and do not get to use the DH in this series. That shouldn’t stop them from another productive outing, as they draw an exploitable matchup against Erick Fedde. While the sample size is small, he has allowed a .390+ xwOBA and a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Steve Pearce all boast a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.477 92.4 0.311 46.2% 13.0% 13.0% 30.1% OF $4,900 OF $6,000 N/A N/A
2 Brock Holt LEFT 0.328 87.0 0.121 26.9% 9.2% 15.6% 55.8% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,500 N/A N/A
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.472 94.0 0.349 49.2% 10.8% 20.4% 46.4% OF $4,600 OF $5,900 N/A N/A
4 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.508 92.2 0.219 57.7% 8.6% 17.1% 42.3% OF $2,300 1B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.345 93.1 0.218 40.6% 7.3% 25.3% 42.7% 3B $2,700 3B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.261 87.1 0.119 25.8% 2.5% 17.8% 50.3% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.355 92.4 0.148 39.3% 10.0% 23.3% 40.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.280 87.8 0.089 27.4% 3.2% 14.8% 40.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Eduardo Rodriguez LEFT P $8,000 P $8,400 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.378 90.8 0.197 39.1% 8.1% 18.4% 43.5%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Steve Pearce (GPP), Xander Bogaerts (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Steve Pearce (Cash), Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals’ matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t look great on paper, but he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has been in terrible form over his last couple of starts. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ offense is slowly starting to heat up. They have plenty of firepower in their lineup and have a fairly high implied run total. Trea Turner (.393 xwOBA), Bryce Harper (.391 xwOBA), and Anthony Rendon (.491 xwOBA) have all hit southpaws well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.189 75.4 0.000 25.0% 11.8% 17.6% 63.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.393 88.5 0.107 34.7% 13.4% 12.4% 44.3% SS $3,800 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.491 92.6 0.262 50.0% 10.8% 21.6% 16.0% 3B $4,200 3B $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.391 89.6 0.196 36.4% 18.6% 23.7% 45.5% OF $4,300 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.332 91.4 0.108 37.0% 9.5% 26.2% 51.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.260 86.2 0.182 39.6% 6.0% 36.1% 55.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.243 84.2 0.103 25.5% 4.2% 23.9% 38.0% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.260 86.1 0.043 22.9% 9.4% 22.6% 29.4% C $2,000 C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Erick Fedde RIGHT 0.066 82.9 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,600 P $5,300 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.292 86.3 0.111 30.1% 9.3% 20.5% 49.3%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Michael Taylor, Mark Reynolds

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Atlanta NY Yankees
atlantamlb Julio Teheran nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-170 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.370 40.7% 88.1 17.9% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.304 0.255 21.4% 78.1 25.4% 54.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.323 35.8% 88.9 24.5% 37.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.303 29.9% 85.3 16.8% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 12 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 13 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.89 4.49 18.6% 8.9% 40.0% 30.4% 21.1%
2018 16 4.69 4.21 21.2% 11.3% 38.8% 38.2% 19.1%
L14 2 4.51 5.91 22.2% 11.1% 33.3% 36.7% 16.7%

Teheran has been an easy pitcher to pick on this season. In 16 starts, he has a 4.69 SIERA with walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate that is similar to his ground ball rate. In order for him to warrant consideration in DFS, he needs to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. While the Yankees do have quite a few righties in their lineup, this is far from a pitcher’s park. He offers more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Teheran in all formats.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 11 of 28 Salary Rank: 9 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.45 3.69 19.3% 8.0% 49.9% 27.2% 24.1%
2018 15 4.28 3.02 18.5% 5.9% 43.0% 28.5% 27.0%
L14 2 4.06 1.46 17.0% 3.8% 47.5% 30.0% 22.5%

Sabathia may not be as talented as his 3.02 ERA would lead you to believe, but he’s still a very competent pitcher in the majors. In 15 starts, he has a 4.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He has good control and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He draws a difficult matchup against the Braves, whose projected lineup has a .345 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of only 19% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia is my favorite pitching target in the early FanDuel slate, but a secondary option in the early DraftKings slate.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to use the DH in this series, but their matchup against CC Sabathia is less than optimal. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Ozzie Albies (.358 xwOBA), Kurt Suzuki (.415 xwOBA), and Ronald Acuna (.355 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and have all hit left-handed pitching well this season, but are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.278 81.7 0.033 26.7% 7.9% 14.9% 53.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,200
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.358 90.3 0.245 43.2% 4.6% 13.9% 40.2% 2B $4,300 2B $5,300 2B $9,400
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.411 88.1 0.282 38.8% 8.9% 21.1% 41.2% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 1B $9,500
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.352 90.9 0.184 41.2% 8.7% 14.3% 45.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 RF $9,400
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.415 87.3 0.286 42.9% 9.3% 13.0% 38.1% C $2,900 C $3,900 C $7,800
6 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.355 93.7 0.175 35.7% 10.9% 26.1% 50.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.353 89.6 0.219 39.6% 5.9% 16.2% 37.7% 3B $2,900 3B/SS $3,800 3B $7,600
8 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.300 83.3 0.158 26.1% 6.6% 18.0% 56.8% OF $2,700 3B/OF $3,400 SS $6,500
9 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.279 89.8 0.211 41.0% 6.6% 29.5% 36.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,600
Team Averages 0.345 88.3 0.199 37.2% 7.7% 18.6% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki, Ronald Acuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

Even though Julio Teheran has historically been tough on right-handed hitters, we shouldn’t automatically avoid the power bats of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Much like we saw last night with Sean Newcomb, splits aren’t everything when breaking down a matchup. I wouldn’t rule out a full stack that includes the likes of Judge and Stanton. With that said, Teheran has allowed a .370 xwOBA with a 41% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.304 87.2 0.148 30.3% 12.1% 15.5% 51.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,400
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.412 96.7 0.310 50.0% 14.4% 29.2% 47.1% OF $5,000 OF $5,400 RF $10,300
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.361 89.1 0.205 40.0% 12.5% 19.0% 43.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 CF $9,000
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.304 91.4 0.170 34.7% 8.1% 32.6% 54.4% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.350 88.3 0.260 40.5% 9.8% 13.2% 33.9% SS $4,000 SS $4,500 SS $9,300
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.386 88.1 0.242 37.6% 6.1% 25.6% 30.6% 2B $4,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,300
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.291 88.1 0.256 34.6% 7.1% 27.1% 41.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
8 Kyle Higashioka RIGHT 0.166 86.5 0.000 40.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,500
9 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.330 87.8 0.085 35.0% 10.2% 21.1% 41.4% 1B $2,000 1B/2B $3,000 2B $5,500
Team Averages 0.323 89.2 0.186 38.1% 10.8% 20.4% 38.3%

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Miami
tampabaymlb Matt Andriese miamimlb Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-108 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.224 0.284 37.9% 89.0 17.3% 53.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.366 44.4% 89.2 16.7% 51.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.347 46.9% 89.6 25.0% 49.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.286 39.2% 87.1 22.2% 54.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Andriese
matt-andriese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 17 4.42 4.50 20.3% 7.5% 44.9% 38.7% 19.2%
2018 3 3.41 3.86 21.3% 5.5% 51.4% 42.5% 18.5%
L14 1 5.00 9.53 11.1% 11.1% 61.9% 33.3% 23.8%

Andriese will be making his third start of the season today. In the first three (and a number of relief appearances), he posted a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. While those numbers are enticing, he’s been doing most of his work out off the bullpen, so he’s not likely to pitch more than a few innings here. While the matchup against the Marlins is appealing, Andriese doesn’t have a high enough floor or ceiling to warrant consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Andriese in all formats.

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 15 of 28 Salary Rank: 14 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.6%
2018 16 3.85 4.40 19.4% 5.4% 53.0% 42.1% 15.6%
L14 1 3.98 7.94 19.2% 7.7% 52.6% 31.6% 26.3%

Urena got off to a nice start this season, but has since cooled off. His numbers are starting to look more and more like those of 2017. He currently owns a 3.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He has a high ground ball rate, but that hasn’t led to a low hard contact rate. The good news is that he draws a favorable matchup against the Rays and he gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Tampa’s projected lineup has a .296 xwOBA with a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is viable as an SP2 in the early slate on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Jose Urena has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career. On the season, he has held righties to a .286 xwOBA on a 55% ground ball rate. He has struggled a bit against lefties though, allowing a .366 xwOBA with a 44% hard contact rate. Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, and Joey Wendle are the top targets here, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.245 87.0 0.054 35.3% 12.1% 33.3% 57.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,700
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.330 87.0 0.121 31.5% 4.9% 15.8% 49.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,700
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.380 91.0 0.189 43.2% 20.6% 23.5% 40.5% 1B $2,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,400
4 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.321 86.4 0.122 35.1% 13.9% 27.3% 48.9% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,400 LF $3,900
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.275 89.6 0.085 33.8% 4.6% 23.3% 51.9% 2B $2,300 2B $3,100 2B $5,600
6 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.279 83.8 0.102 26.8% 8.5% 20.1% 48.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,700
7 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.233 83.2 0.091 16.7% 10.0% 30.0% 46.7% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,600 SS $7,700
8 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.302 83.0 0.020 25.0% 3.6% 10.7% 39.1% C $2,100 C $2,200 C $3,900
9 Matt Andriese RIGHT P $5,500 P $5,500 P $11,100
Team Averages 0.296 86.4 0.098 30.9% 9.8% 23.0% 47.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, Joey Wendle

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins have been a disappointment at the plate this season and draw a mediocre matchup against Matt Andriese. On the season, he has held lefties to a .284 xwOBA, which hurts the appeal of Derek Dietrich and Justin Bour. Andriese has some serious reverse-splits (47% hard contact rate to righties) if you want to give J.T. Realmuto or Brian Anderson a look as one-offs in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.350 88.4 0.174 37.3% 5.7% 22.3% 39.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.352 89.9 0.104 37.8% 8.1% 19.8% 50.6% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.398 91.4 0.266 45.5% 6.6% 16.3% 44.1% C $3,600 C $4,800 C $8,800
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.395 90.1 0.247 41.7% 17.1% 24.1% 37.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,400
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.301 87.6 0.121 36.0% 5.3% 19.2% 50.5% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
6 JT Riddle LEFT 0.314 88.2 0.181 38.1% 4.5% 24.7% 45.9% SS $2,100 SS $3,300 SS $6,700
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.294 84.9 0.104 31.8% 4.5% 14.9% 55.9% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,700
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.289 88.9 0.150 42.1% 3.9% 33.0% 50.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.053 79.9 0.091 33.3% 0.0% 72.7% 66.7% P $7,000 P $6,900 P $13,500
Team Averages 0.305 87.7 0.160 38.2% 6.2% 27.4% 49.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Anderson, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Detroit Chicago Cubs
detroitmlb Francisco Liriano cubsmlb Jose Quintana
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-230 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.211 0.326 20.0% 87.6 25.9% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.303 29.3% 87.0 27.0% 49.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 0.389 32.7% 87.7 16.8% 42.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.351 42.8% 90.3 19.7% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 16 of 28 Salary Rank: 18 of 28 Salary Rank: 16 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.09 5.66 19.4% 12.1% 44.9% 29.6% 16.8%
2018 12 5.15 3.99 18.7% 13.0% 44.9% 30.3% 20.2%
L14 2 5.92 4.50 15.9% 15.9% 43.3% 30.0% 23.3%

Liriano is one of my favorite pitchers to see on the schedule, but not for the right reason. He’s one of my favorite pitchers to stack against. In 12 starts this season, he has a 5.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a walk rate of 13%. While he has done a nice job of limiting hard contact, that hasn’t helped him much in terms of run prevention. As one of the biggest underdogs on the board, he can be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks but no thanks Liriano.

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28 Salary Rank: 10 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2%
2018 16 4.49 4.31 21.5% 10.7% 44.3% 39.7% 14.7%
L14 2 5.48 6.10 13.2% 9.4% 30.8% 50.0% 10.0%

Quintana is another talented pitcher that has struggled to find consistent form this season. In 16 starts, he has a 4.49 SIERA with a walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate of 40%. The Tigers are often thought of as an exploitable matchup for pitchers, but more so for righties than for lefties. Detroit’s projected has a .359 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of 39% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Given his form and matchup, Quintana is best suited as a GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are a sneaky offense to target here in the early slate. Jose Quintana has not been in the best of form, they have a right-handed heavy offense, and there is a helping wind (8 MPH) blowing out to left field in Wrigley. With Quintana set to soak up a lot of ownership, the Tigers are a great way to create leverage on the field. Nick Castellanos, Jeimer Candelario, John Hicks, James McCann, and Niko Goodrum all bat from the right side and have hit left-handed pitching well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.313 88.2 0.053 40.0% 0.0% 21.1% 46.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 CF $5,700
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.407 89.3 0.237 48.4% 7.2% 16.9% 35.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 IF/OF $8,700
3 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.339 87.3 0.264 39.6% 9.9% 29.6% 47.9% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 John Hicks RIGHT 0.385 91.2 0.163 30.8% 12.3% 19.3% 38.5% C $2,600 1B/C $3,300 1B $6,600
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.434 88.9 0.204 41.9% 8.5% 18.6% 37.2% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,600
6 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.375 88.2 0.159 37.8% 12.0% 14.0% 54.1% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,700 1B $7,400
7 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.354 83.7 0.196 22.0% 5.3% 5.3% 32.7% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.268 91.3 0.141 52.2% 5.6% 25.4% 45.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,600
9 Francisco Liriano LEFT P $6,800 P $6,100 P $12,200
Team Averages 0.359 88.5 0.177 39.1% 7.6% 18.8% 42.3%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, John Hicks (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Hicks (FD), Mikie Mahtook, Jeimer Candelario, James McCann, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a tremendous stacking option in the early slate. They are facing a hittable southpaw that has a tendency to walk a lot of batters and there is a helping wind blowing out to left, which is a big boost for the right-handed hitters. On the season, Francisco Liriano has allowed a .389 xwOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, and Willson Contreras all bat from the right side and all mash left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.326 86.2 0.145 27.3% 7.8% 6.5% 49.2% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
2 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.382 89.4 0.254 39.0% 4.0% 16.0% 50.9% 2B $4,400 2B/SS $5,500 2B $10,200
3 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.361 88.4 0.070 42.0% 7.9% 12.7% 38.8% OF $3,100 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,100
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.310 88.4 0.091 28.6% 8.0% 22.7% 31.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,800 1B $8,900
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.367 91.6 0.226 33.3% 15.1% 19.2% 41.7% C $3,100 C $4,100 IF/OF $8,400
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.308 86.8 0.175 26.9% 8.6% 17.1% 35.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,800 SS $7,700
7 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.337 88.3 0.043 39.3% 17.5% 31.6% 53.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,300
8 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.312 89.1 0.172 41.9% 10.6% 40.9% 32.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.049 71.3 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 66.7% P $7,200 P $7,900 P $15,000
Team Averages 0.306 86.6 0.131 30.9% 8.8% 24.1% 44.4%

Elite Plays – Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Baltimore Philadelphia
baltimoremlb Yefry Ramirez philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-240 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.238 0.272 40.0% 84.0 33.3% 33.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.255 0.290 23.0% 86.4 21.3% 51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.275 26.7% 88.1 15.8% 53.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.241 0.244 30.8% 85.5 29.4% 50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yefry Ramirez
yefrey-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 28 Salary Rank: 24 of 28 Salary Rank: 23 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 3.34 2.89 24.3% 5.4% 45.8% 32.0% 20.0%
L14 0 3.30 0.00 17.7% 0.0% 46.2% 35.7% 14.3%

Ramirez is making his second career major league start. He’s not considered one of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects, but he does have a decent track record in the minors. In 14 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.66 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24%. When it comes to these young pitchers, I like to lean on the betting markets. Ramirez is listed as a large underdog today against the Phillies in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ramirez in both cash games and tournaments.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $13,100 Salary: $25,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28 Salary Rank: 2 of 28
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6%
2018 17 3.53 2.48 25.2% 7.3% 50.9% 26.7% 20.7%
L14 2 4.15 1.98 24.1% 9.3% 33.3% 25.0% 22.2%

Nola is one of the top pitching options of the early slate. In 17 starts this season, he owns a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 51%. He’s great at inducing soft and medium contact, which allows him to pitch well even in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has a .317 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. He should be able to dominate this right-handed heavy lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have struggled against elite right-handed pitching all season. They don’t have enough quality lefties in their lineup. They may be playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they have one of the worst matchups on the board. Aaron Nola has a high strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.236 84.8 0.038 24.1% 4.7% 27.1% 50.9% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 SS $5,700
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.346 89.2 0.187 33.2% 3.3% 19.4% 40.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.400 93.0 0.268 37.2% 10.9% 16.0% 35.1% SS $4,500 SS $5,000 3B $9,700
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.375 93.6 0.252 43.2% 5.9% 23.5% 37.9% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,800 DH $7,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.280 86.4 0.080 33.6% 7.8% 35.8% 44.8% 1B $2,300 1B $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.377 91.4 0.163 34.0% 9.5% 24.5% 49.3% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.229 84.5 0.179 24.4% 2.7% 24.2% 49.2% 2B $2,500 2B $3,300 2B $6,800
8 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.289 87.9 0.084 31.9% 7.9% 33.8% 49.3% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 Yefry Ramirez RIGHT P $5,500 P $5,200 P $10,200
Team Averages 0.317 88.9 0.156 32.7% 6.6% 25.5% 44.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a boom or bust matchup against Yefry Ramirez, who is only making his second career major league start. His numbers in the minors are solid, but pitching in the majors is a different animal. The Phillies should fly under the radar, even in this home run-friendly ballpark. Cesar Hernandez (.334 xwOBA), Rhys Hoskins (.387 xwOBA), Odubel Herrera (.321 xwOBA), Carlos Santana (.398 xwOBA), and Nick Williams (.367 xwOBA) have all hit right-handed pitching well this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.334 83.8 0.144 27.2% 14.5% 22.7% 44.4% 2B $3,700 2B $4,700 2B $9,400
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.387 89.4 0.264 35.5% 12.3% 27.7% 26.8% OF $3,900 OF $5,300 IF/OF $9,900
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.321 87.5 0.196 27.3% 7.3% 20.6% 43.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,000
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.398 89.1 0.215 37.6% 20.6% 13.9% 35.4% 1B $3,300 1B $4,600 1B $9,400
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.367 88.9 0.213 31.1% 8.4% 26.3% 46.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,400
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.309 86.2 0.120 26.2% 5.8% 21.6% 38.8% SS $2,400 SS $3,100 SS $5,700
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.302 88.4 0.168 23.0% 5.1% 16.4% 56.1% 3B $2,500 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.250 91.4 0.124 27.9% 3.9% 38.3% 55.8% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.111 61.1 0.000 7.7% 3.7% 48.1% 71.4% P $10,100 P $13,100 P $25,600
Team Averages 0.309 85.1 0.160 27.1% 9.1% 26.2% 46.5%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP), Nick Williams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Carlos Santana (Cash), Nick Williams (Cash), Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious