Sign In $

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-22 02:23:46

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Looking for more invaluable content to help you build better lineups? Start your FREE 7-Day Premium Trial Now!

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Tampa Bay
cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman tampabaymlb Erasmo Ramirez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -137 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.311 30.1% 8.7% 17.4% 30.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.357 36.4% 9.4% 15.4% 46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.324 35.7% 7.4% 19.1% 44.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.304 28.6% 4.1% 18.5% 53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 11 4.67 4.22 20.4% 9.1% 39.8% 30.4% 16.3%

We have four games on tap in the early slate and we start with the Reds and Rays. Adleman has an average strikeout rate, but the rest of his numbers leave much to be desired. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.67 SIERA with 9% walk rate. His matchup against the Rays is of the boom or bust variety, as Tampa Bay is ranked fifth in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I’m not particularly interested in Adleman here, but he does have some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments if you are trying to fit some of the big bats into your lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz is a better SP2 overall, but Adleman has some appeal in tournaments given how often the Rays strikeout.

Erasmo Ramirez
erasmo-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.10 3.77 16.7% 6.9% 52.5% 26.3% 19.3%
2017 7 4.11 5.17 18.3% 4.9% 48.5% 40.4% 13.5%

Ramirez has decent numbers in the last two seasons, but most of his work has come from the bullpen. It’s always tough for a reliever to transition into being a starter and his low strikeout rate makes him an easy fade regardless. Many people assume that the Reds don’t have great numbers against right-handed pitching, but they are actually ranked inside the top ten in both team wOBA and strikeout rate. Ramirez is the favored pitcher in this game, but I’m worried about his upside.

Quick Breakdown: Ideally, we don’t want to play either pitcher in this game. However, if you have to pick one, I prefer Adleman over Ramirez.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds may not be playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but they get to utilize the DH in this series and they draw an exploitable matchup against Erasmo Ramirez. Over the last two seasons, Ramirez has allowed a .357 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, and Scott Schebler are all viable options in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.252 0.078 18.5% 8.9% 20.1% 47.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.326 0.292 0.175 31.3% 5.4% 20.1% 42.9% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $4,000 2B $7,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.436 0.257 40.1% 17.3% 14.3% 37.2% 1B $4,300 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.326 0.253 36.6% 5.8% 27.0% 33.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.335 0.215 35.9% 7.9% 21.4% 49.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.316 0.315 0.155 33.2% 8.2% 23.6% 40.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.298 0.297 0.198 22.1% 8.4% 18.9% 41.2% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.617 0.407 0.500 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
9 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.309 0.297 0.093 19.6% 1.8% 13.7% 43.7% 2B $2,200 2B $3,300 2B $6,400

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Adam Duvall

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have plenty of firepower in their lineup when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. They are small favorites today at home and have a high implied run total for a team playing in this ballpark. In terms of the splits, Tim Adleman allows a higher xwOBA and a higher hard contact rate to righties, which brings Evan Longoria and Steve Souza into play. While the splits aren’t necessarily in their favor, I wouldn’t rule out the left-handed bats of Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, and Logan Morrison.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.362 0.272 0.148 22.2% 10.1% 19.8% 61.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.354 0.322 0.271 32.8% 6.2% 21.8% 34.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.349 0.234 35.2% 6.1% 19.7% 35.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.345 0.368 0.245 39.6% 11.0% 22.9% 39.7% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.329 0.205 32.3% 10.3% 30.8% 40.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $8,700
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.322 0.323 0.199 38.2% 9.3% 29.6% 35.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.302 0.200 43.9% 4.4% 31.8% 43.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.289 0.276 0.118 29.9% 9.5% 25.7% 52.3% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.238 0.265 0.131 31.2% 6.7% 31.7% 33.7% C $2,400 C $2,600 C $5,200

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria, Steve Souza

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Washington Miami
washingtonmlb Max Scherzer miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.295 30.1% 9.1% 25.2% 33.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.306 29.2% 11.7% 21.5% 35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.196 0.215 27.8% 3.1% 40.4% 34.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.323 0.315 35.6% 6.5% 22.0% 32.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,300 Salary: $14,100 Salary: $27,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 14 2.76 2.26 35.1% 6.0% 36.3% 26.5% 19.2%

Scherzer is the best play in the early slate and the best play in the all day slate. He is a tough fade in any format if you are playing any league type that features this game. Scherzer currently owns a 2.76 SIERA with a massive 35% strikeout rate. He is also pitching in a big ballpark, which tends to benefit fly ball pitchers like himself. The Marlins aren’t an offense that typically strikes out often, but I typically throw that out the window when it comes to the best pitchers in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the top play in the slate and should be targeting in both cash games and tournaments.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 14 4.05 3.58 25.1% 8.2% 36.6% 34.0% 20.6%

Straily has managed to maintain a 25% strikeout rate this season. He is still a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, but he can sometimes get away with it in this big ballpark. The issue today isn’t Straily, it’s his matchup. The Nationals are currently ranked third in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Their lineup is loaded with tough outs that all like to work the count. There isn’t enough upside to make up for the runs that Straily is likely going to give up in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is an easy fade today, especially with Scherzer pitching opposite him.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals were one of the highest scoring offenses in the slate last night and will look to keep it rolling today against Dan Straily. While he does have an above-average strikeout rate, his high hard contact rate makes him an appealing pitcher to target hitters against. Straily’s splits are fairly neutral, but he does allow a lot more hard contact to right-handed hitters. The one through seven batters are all in play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.382 0.329 0.232 30.8% 4.5% 18.3% 47.5% SS $4,300 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.317 0.264 0.224 33.3% 5.7% 25.7% 45.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.382 0.397 0.245 34.9% 18.3% 15.5% 39.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.331 0.341 0.198 36.4% 5.7% 23.0% 44.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.412 0.396 0.247 38.2% 6.7% 8.8% 35.9% 2B $3,900 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.343 0.344 0.189 34.8% 9.7% 17.8% 37.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.307 0.320 0.161 33.3% 6.4% 17.8% 37.3% C $2,400 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.284 0.273 0.167 31.6% 5.2% 31.6% 41.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.175 0.161 0.012 23.5% 2.9% 30.4% 74.5% P $12,300 P $14,100 P $27,200

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

The Marlins draw the worst matchup in the slate. In addition to one of the highest strikeout rates in all of baseball, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Christian Yelich and Justin Bour both have great numbers against right-handed pitching, but are deep GPP fliers at best in this four game early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.301 0.245 0.079 18.6% 5.4% 15.1% 56.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.338 0.339 0.229 36.8% 9.6% 28.1% 40.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.368 0.383 0.185 39.9% 11.8% 19.8% 55.0% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.347 0.341 0.197 37.2% 7.6% 20.1% 46.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.362 0.394 0.239 40.2% 11.9% 17.1% 44.9% 1B $2,600 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.338 0.311 0.125 30.7% 5.4% 17.1% 49.9% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.333 0.333 0.149 29.6% 7.6% 19.6% 38.2% 3B $2,300 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.294 0.300 0.150 41.7% 4.5% 19.1% 46.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.040 0.078 0.000 15.2% 1.3% 55.3% 86.7% P $8,100 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Boston at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Boston Kansas City
bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-133 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.294 34.2% 9.1% 24.7% 43.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.327 37.4% 9.1% 20.5% 31.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.285 31.6% 9.0% 27.1% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.322 36.7% 8.5% 23.6% 38.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,500
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 13 3.82 4.19 26.6% 8.3% 41.3% 34.0% 25.5%

Pomeranz is the pretty clear SP2 in the early slate. Part of it has to do with his fantasy appeal in general, but a lot of it has to do with a lack of pitching options outside of Max Scherzer. On the season, Pomeranz has a 27% strikeout rate and he has induced a soft contact rate of 25%. He sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Kauffman Stadium and he gets to face a Royals’ offense that is ranked 20th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz is an elite SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.27 3.68 22.5% 8.1% 33.2% 36.4% 18.6%
2017 12 4.99 5.03 20.5% 11.2% 38.6% 39.2% 14.8%

Kennedy’s numbers are down across the board this season. His walk rate is up, his hard contact rate is up, and he isn’t getting nearly as many strikeout as we have seen in prior seasons. He has always struggled with allowing too many home runs, which makes him a risky fantasy option in any ballpark and in any matchup. He is an easy fade against the Red Sox, who have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Kennedy in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox draw a terrific matchup against Ian Kennedy and even though they have to play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they are still one of the top offenses to target in the early slate. In the last two seasons, Kennedy has allowed a .320+ xwOBA and a 36%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Red Sox haven’t hit many home runs this season, but maybe a matchup against Kennedy will help in that department.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.380 0.338 0.208 34.6% 8.4% 10.6% 42.2% OF $3,800 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.348 0.337 0.191 37.3% 8.7% 15.5% 35.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.344 0.291 0.142 30.1% 7.3% 17.0% 47.2% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.322 0.365 0.199 39.2% 8.7% 23.1% 39.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.341 0.344 0.182 37.2% 9.6% 19.6% 48.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.357 0.363 0.235 37.4% 11.2% 21.0% 45.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
7 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.278 0.247 0.039 27.5% 9.6% 29.6% 60.3% 3B $2,100 2B/3B $2,200 2B $4,200
8 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.136 0.180 0.016 25.6% 5.8% 31.9% 65.0% SS $2,000 3B $2,600 3B $5,100
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.275 0.257 0.077 29.6% 3.6% 22.3% 58.4% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City

The Royals struggle against left-handed pitching, they are playing in a bad ballpark for offensive production, and they draw a less than appealing matchup against Drew Pomeranz. In addition to a high strikeout rate, Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA in the last two seasons. Jorge Bonifacio and Lorenzo Cain are viable one-off targets, but only if you are fading Pomeranz.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.388 0.344 0.161 45.3% 8.5% 18.5% 44.0% 2B $3,500 2B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.245 0.344 0.100 40.7% 7.0% 30.2% 37.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.362 0.352 0.199 32.3% 11.0% 11.6% 40.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 CF $9,300
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.299 0.317 0.150 29.7% 5.6% 19.3% 60.3% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.310 0.316 0.208 34.1% 5.3% 20.4% 29.3% C $3,200 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.318 0.307 0.244 34.9% 3.7% 14.8% 45.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
7 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.330 0.247 0.147 32.3% 4.3% 19.6% 47.6% 3B $2,200 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.257 0.257 0.088 25.7% 3.9% 13.7% 51.4% SS $2,600 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.288 0.313 0.108 30.7% 10.5% 25.4% 46.0% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jorge Bonifacio, Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

San Diego Chicago Cubs
sandiegomlb Miguel Diaz cubsmlb Eddie Butler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-180 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.429 0.339 31.0% 8.9% 12.5% 47.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.373 0.387 39.9% 11.4% 15.7% 37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.330 36.0% 15.2% 21.5% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.363 0.343 35.0% 7.1% 15.3% 49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Diaz
miguel-diaz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 5.09 7.36 17.8% 12.6% 46.2% 33.7% 26.1%

Diaz is making his third career major league start today against the Cubs. The crazy part is that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A ball and was called up from Single-A. We rarely see that happen. Diaz is off to a shaky start and a matchup against the Cubs in Chicago isn’t going to help his cause. For now, let’s take a wait and see approach until we have a larger sample size to work with.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Diaz in all formats.

Eddie Butler
eddie-butler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.53 7.17 16.0% 7.2% 45.8% 38.7% 13.1%
2017 7 5.75 4.41 14.3% 12.2% 43.0% 33.3% 17.6%

On multi-pitcher sites, it is tough to fit both Max Scherzer and Drew Pomeranz in the same lineup. I expect Butler to garner some ownership here thanks to a cheap price tag and a matchup against the Padres. I’m not taking the bait though, as there are too many red flags. Butler’s walk rate is nearly as high as his strikeout rate, he has a SIERA close to 6.00, and he has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Butler in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball, but they get to face Eddie Butler, who has a strikeout rate under 15% this season. Something has to give in this matchup and I’ll take my chances with the Padres. They will get overlooked in this slate, even though Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers, and Yangervis Solarte all grade out as viable options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.288 0.292 0.164 33.3% 6.1% 21.2% 48.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.397 0.363 0.245 40.0% 8.6% 31.0% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.339 0.321 0.215 35.3% 8.9% 24.9% 42.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.351 0.318 0.186 33.0% 7.8% 12.9% 41.0% 3B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.294 0.281 0.234 33.6% 3.2% 30.6% 41.8% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
6 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.292 0.261 0.115 26.1% 3.8% 22.3% 50.0% 2B $2,700 3B/OF $3,000 2B $6,000
7 Allen Cordoba RIGHT 0.306 0.287 0.104 23.9% 5.6% 19.4% 51.1% SS $2,100 OF $2,800 SS $5,400
8 Luis Torrens RIGHT 0.184 0.277 0.026 16.1% 4.8% 19.0% 51.6% C $2,100 C $2,000 C $4,000
9 Miguel Diaz RIGHT 0.000 0.183 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,400 P $8,800

Elite Plays – Franchy Cordero

Secondary Plays – Jose Pirela, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher that has basically no experience above Single-A ball in the minors. A Cubs’ stack is viable here in both cash games and tournaments. Even though their numbers against right-handed pitching look bad on paper, their lineup is still full of talented hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.391 0.384 0.254 37.0% 12.9% 15.5% 37.2% 1B $4,700 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
2 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.370 0.355 0.333 35.3% 11.2% 30.3% 45.1% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.374 0.350 0.239 36.4% 10.2% 22.8% 30.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
4 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.300 0.292 0.161 28.3% 7.5% 22.6% 42.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.297 0.313 0.112 26.8% 8.3% 13.7% 46.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.330 0.305 0.185 32.9% 8.8% 28.2% 54.1% C $2,700 C $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
7 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.301 0.356 0.236 35.9% 11.9% 28.4% 40.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
8 Eddie Butler RIGHT 0.111 0.125 0.000 10.0% 3.7% 22.2% 91.7% P $7,300 P $6,100 P $12,000
9 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.280 0.265 0.092 29.0% 5.0% 18.0% 53.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Philadelphia
stlouismlb Michael Wacha philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.323 29.5% 9.0% 18.5% 44.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.315 31.1% 15.1% 23.3% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.318 28.5% 7.4% 20.8% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.393 0.392 40.0% 8.1% 21.8% 37.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 12 4.42 4.78 22.0% 9.5% 45.3% 26.3% 20.4%

Wacha had a lot of buzz early in the season. His velocity was up and he was striking batters out at a 25% clip. Since then, the strikeouts have come down, while his ERA and SIERA have both come up. He’s not a bad pitcher by any means, but I don’t like targeting pitchers in Citizens Bank Park, which is one of the smallest ballparks in all of baseball. Wacha also comes into this start in bad form, allowing 21 earned runs in his last five outings. I expect him to garner some ownership as an SP2, but he looks like an easy fade in my eyes.

Quick Breakdown: Let the rest of the field play Wacha in this ballpark.

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.67 4.46 22.5% 11.3% 38.5% 36.2% 11.4%

Pivetta has shown strikeout potential in the minors and so far, it has carried over the majors (22.5%). The issue with Pivetta and many other young pitchers is his command. With a walk rate over 11%, eventually those are going to come back to haunt you, especially when half of your starts come in this home run-friendly ballpark. The Cardinals finally seem to be heating up offensively and they have a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. We should continue to keep an eye on Pivetta, but he can be avoided tonight against St. Louis.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Pivetta in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Anyone that rostered the Cardinals last night wasn’t too happy with the single run that they put up in the first ten innings. Luckily, St. Louis came through with a huge seven run inning in the 11th. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia and they draw an exploitable matchup against rookie Nick Pivetta, who has struggled with his command in his first seven major league starts. Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler have been red-hot, but don’t discount the right-handed hitters in this lineup. The sample is small, but Pivetta has allowed a .392 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.388 0.418 0.263 46.4% 15.2% 19.3% 27.2% 1B $4,000 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.366 0.351 0.202 31.9% 13.8% 23.9% 36.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.329 0.349 0.157 32.6% 8.1% 20.9% 45.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.354 0.338 0.257 34.7% 7.8% 24.3% 42.8% 3B $2,800 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.326 0.331 0.119 31.7% 6.0% 11.7% 48.0% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $7,600
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.356 0.310 0.209 29.6% 6.5% 12.8% 44.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
7 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.347 0.347 0.195 42.3% 10.5% 30.9% 54.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.299 0.294 0.190 28.6% 0.0% 33.3% 39.3% 2B $2,500 2B $3,900 3B $7,600
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.074 0.102 0.000 7.7% 5.5% 47.3% 83.3% P $7,500 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Aledmys Diaz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies have a fairly high implied run total for the Phillies, but there aren’t any hitters that really stand out in a matchup against Michael Wacha. This is a situation where I will be avoiding both the pitcher and the opposing offense, which we can afford to do in an 11 game slate. The one hitter that stands out as a decent value play is Odubel Herrera. He is dirt cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft and has five multi-hit games in his last nine outings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.336 0.311 0.154 29.6% 8.1% 20.3% 42.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.318 0.331 0.136 34.4% 7.1% 18.7% 59.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.305 0.294 0.142 33.2% 8.7% 31.1% 46.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.327 0.326 0.200 38.0% 5.5% 22.9% 42.0% 1B $3,300 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.289 0.320 0.147 29.3% 6.6% 16.5% 45.3% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
6 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.315 0.337 0.114 35.3% 8.4% 18.2% 37.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.188 39.6% 12.5% 27.5% 60.4% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.303 0.275 0.174 27.9% 5.8% 21.4% 40.1% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.146 0.098 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 28.6% 66.7% P $7,100 P $5,800 P $11,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious