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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-08 02:47:05

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Cleveland Colorado
clevelandmlb Trevor Bauer coloradomlb Kyle Freeland
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-115 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.328 37.8% 7.7% 24.6% 39.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.318 41.0% 6.9% 24.1% 41.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.327 29.6% 9.1% 21.3% 54.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.307 32.1% 11.1% 11.6% 61.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
trevor-bauer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 11 3.36 5.83 29.1% 8.0% 43.9% 39.9% 13.3%

We have a smaller early slate than usual, but this one is more interesting than most short slates. We have a game in Coors Field and we have two elite pitchers squaring off in Los Angeles. We have to make some difficult lineup decisions because we can’t stack Coors Field and target Stephen Strasburg and/or Clayton Kershaw. As for Bauer, he is an easy fade in all formats. He has a high strikeout rate this season, but this is the best hitter’s park in baseball and that 40% hard contact rate sticks out like a sore thumb.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bauer in all formats.

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $5,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.98 3.53 14.2% 10.2% 57.4% 33.8% 20.9%

Freeland may have a low ERA, but his SIERA is close to 5.00 and he has a strikeout rate of only 14%. He doesn’t have great command and is facing a low strikeout offense in the Indians. He is also pitching in Coors Field, ever heard of it? Both pitchers can be avoided in a game that features an over/under of 11.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Freeland in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

I made six total lineups last night and one of them had Scooter Gennett. I sure felt deflated when I logged in and realized that Gennett was on the lineup with my Indians’ stack. It left me thinking about what could have been. Anyway, we can’t hold grudges in DFS, so I will be going right back to the Indians in Coors Field. They draw a favorable matchup against Kyle Freeland, who should see some regression moving forward. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play and we can stack this game in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.325 0.311 0.183 28.0% 5.9% 24.3% 41.8% 2B $4,100 2B $4,900 N/A N/A
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.340 0.333 0.162 32.6% 7.2% 14.4% 46.2% SS $4,200 SS $5,100 N/A N/A
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.317 0.304 0.086 33.3% 6.6% 18.4% 47.4% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.304 0.328 0.120 30.4% 11.2% 8.8% 53.7% 1B $4,500 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.372 0.377 0.214 40.2% 18.1% 22.0% 40.2% 1B $4,400 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.339 0.341 0.146 31.5% 7.3% 14.2% 42.6% 3B $3,800 2B/3B $4,600 N/A N/A
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.345 0.306 0.217 30.9% 7.6% 22.7% 41.3% C $3,400 C $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.266 0.309 0.115 40.0% 9.2% 21.8% 42.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Trevor Bauer RIGHT P $7,100 P $6,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies had a big offensive outburst last night and we can expect more of the same in a day game in Coors Field. Trevor Bauer SIERA doesn’t look as bad as his ERA does this season, but either way, he has a 40% hard contact rate. He hasn’t been particularly effective against batters from either side of the plate, allowing a .325+ xwOBA to both in the last two seasons. The one through seven batters are all in play and we can obviously stack the Rockies in cash games and tournaments. Quick FYI, Carlos Gonzalez is only $3,600 on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.412 0.373 0.286 39.3% 6.8% 18.0% 31.2% OF $4,900 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.360 0.368 0.114 31.7% 9.3% 12.9% 53.3% 2B $3,700 2B $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.376 0.347 0.268 37.2% 8.1% 14.2% 35.7% 3B $4,600 3B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.389 0.327 0.226 30.5% 9.1% 25.0% 40.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.353 0.344 0.185 33.6% 10.1% 17.9% 44.0% OF $4,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.319 0.299 0.152 30.9% 5.9% 25.3% 56.2% OF $3,800 1B/OF $4,500 N/A N/A
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.344 0.323 0.252 37.3% 8.4% 31.7% 29.4% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.326 0.292 0.127 21.6% 11.4% 20.7% 43.0% C $3,300 C $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.438 0.268 0.400 42.9% 8.3% 33.3% 50.0% P $7,700 P $5,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Gerardo Parra or Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Tony Wolters

Stackability – GREEN

Washington at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Washington LA Dodgers
washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg ladodgersmlb Clayton Kershaw
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-165 6.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.257 0.257 24.1% 7.9% 30.6% 45.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.203 0.224 25.4% 2.0% 32.4% 49.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.302 29.9% 6.6% 28.3% 38.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 0.244 30.4% 2.7% 30.1% 48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $11,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 11 3.43 2.91 27.1% 7.0% 46.6% 28.1% 21.4%

We get an early treat on Wednesday, as we get to watch Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw square off in Dodger Stadium. Of the two, Strasburg will garner much less attention, even though he is considerably cheaper than Kershaw. I’m on team Clayton here though, even with the high ownership. The Dodgers hit right-handed pitching well and are ranked fifth in team wOBA at home this season. Vegas also seems to agree with me, as the Dodgers are -165 favorites.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is viable in tournaments, but I will be looking to pay up for Kershaw in this slate.

Clayton Kershaw
clayton-kershaw-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,300 Salary: $12,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 2.41 1.69 31.6% 2.0% 49.4% 28.4% 20.3%
2017 12 2.85 2.28 28.8% 3.5% 47.9% 30.6% 25.5%

Kershaw is dominating yet again. In 12 starts this season, he has a 2.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He has impeccable command, an above-average ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. It doesn’t matter who he is facing, I will target Kershaw against anyone. That obviously includes the Nationals, even though they are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Kershaw is filthy good and it feels wrong fading him. Lock him into your cash game and GPP lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Dodgers are facing the best pitcher in baseball and they have to do it in his own backyard. Dodger Stadium is not a good ballpark for offensive production, but it’s not like it would matter anyway. In the last two seasons, Kershaw has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .245 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.269 0.278 0.071 33.8% 2.9% 21.6% 48.7% SS $2,700 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.357 0.302 0.250 38.2% 15.3% 25.4% 45.6% OF $3,000 OF $2,200 N/A N/A
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.336 0.310 0.196 31.1% 12.3% 27.4% 44.6% OF $2,900 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.360 0.390 0.279 41.0% 10.0% 15.0% 52.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.384 0.373 0.229 34.3% 5.6% 12.6% 37.9% 2B $2,600 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.395 0.379 0.191 35.8% 17.5% 14.4% 33.0% 3B $2,700 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.310 0.342 0.142 30.9% 9.3% 21.4% 35.1% C $2,300 C $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.333 0.316 0.183 37.3% 6.0% 36.2% 47.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.244 0.171 0.000 23.1% 0.0% 35.0% 72.7% P $11,200 P $11,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are the preferred offense to target in this game, but that’s not saying a whole lot. If possible, I recommend choosing a pitcher from this game (preferably Kershaw) and then loading up on hitters from the other two games in the slate. In the last two seasons, Stephen Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.321 0.331 0.159 35.5% 9.0% 24.0% 43.1% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.391 0.403 0.206 41.1% 10.4% 17.6% 45.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.363 0.316 0.200 32.2% 12.8% 26.8% 52.3% OF $2,700 2B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.347 0.345 0.170 35.3% 9.4% 18.9% 42.8% 1B $2,500 1B $2,900 N/A N/A
5 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.361 0.321 0.311 38.2% 11.1% 30.8% 36.4% OF $3,600 1B/OF $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.355 0.345 0.251 39.3% 11.2% 26.3% 43.7% C $2,800 C $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Chase Utley LEFT 0.333 0.333 0.156 38.4% 8.2% 17.6% 47.3% 2B $2,200 1B/2B $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.324 0.322 0.161 33.7% 7.9% 20.8% 49.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Clayton Kershaw LEFT 0.206 0.227 0.020 9.5% 3.6% 20.0% 73.0% P $12,300 P $12,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – RED

Toronto at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Toronto Oakland
torontomlb Francisco Liriano oaklandmlb Jharel Cotton
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-103 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.301 32.5% 8.3% 24.7% 59.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.269 25.0% 11.3% 20.7% 38.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.335 35.1% 13.5% 22.2% 48.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.301 37.9% 5.6% 20.0% 38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 8 5.18 5.94 21.9% 15.6% 47.4% 33.7% 8.2%

There may not be a more inconsistent starting pitcher in baseball than Liriano. You never quite know what to expect when he takes the mound. He isn’t having a great season thus far, but this seems like a good spot to use him as an SP2. The A’s struggle against left-handed pitching and have one of the highest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. Liriano gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and we know that the A’s aren’t the most patient offense at the plate.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano is in play as a cheap SP2 in all formats.

Jharel Cotton
jharel-cotton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.02 2.15 20.5% 3.6% 37.6% 28.2% 22.4%
2017 9 4.78 5.11 20.2% 10.6% 38.5% 34.7% 21.8%

It’s hard to fit both Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg in the same lineup on multi-pitcher sites. We obviously aren’t taking a pitcher from Coors Field, so your SP2 will likely end up coming from this game. I slightly prefer Liriano, but Cotton isn’t a bad option either. He has a league average strikeout rate and he gets to pitch at home in a good pitching environment.

Quick Breakdown: I slightly prefer Liriano, but Cotton is viable as an SP2 in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but their lineup looks a lot better than it did a couple of weeks ago. They draw a decent matchup against Jharel Cotton, who has struggled with his command and has allowed a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. I don’t like the Blue Jays as much as the Rockies or Indians, but they are my third favorite offense in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.296 0.294 0.115 26.0% 5.2% 14.9% 48.0% OF $3,100 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.407 0.405 0.282 39.7% 14.5% 18.5% 39.9% 3B $4,200 3B $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.367 0.370 0.223 38.5% 16.4% 21.5% 36.3% OF $3,900 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.320 0.399 0.205 40.9% 8.8% 18.8% 48.5% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.330 0.352 0.214 41.5% 10.9% 31.6% 30.6% 1B $3,900 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.326 0.354 0.191 34.3% 7.3% 17.3% 41.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.331 0.321 0.170 31.1% 11.6% 26.8% 49.2% C $2,500 3B/C $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.276 0.271 0.096 24.2% 5.6% 16.3% 50.2% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,000 N/A N/A
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.307 0.276 0.109 24.8% 8.5% 21.0% 56.0% OF $3,000 OF $2,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

If you end up with a heavy dose of Francisco Liriano on multi-pitcher sites, I highly recommend playing an A’s hedge stack as well. Obviously, make sure they are on separate lineups. I like the spot for Liriano, but we know that he is blowup prone in each and every start. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .335 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.274 0.264 0.121 25.5% 7.0% 24.4% 40.1% OF $3,200 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
2 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.320 0.312 0.211 47.4% 6.6% 31.1% 36.8% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $2,800 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.278 0.316 0.031 27.6% 6.5% 17.4% 41.9% 2B $2,300 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.341 0.394 0.246 41.3% 10.2% 27.6% 40.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.291 0.267 0.187 28.0% 7.8% 17.5% 45.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.409 0.356 0.263 33.0% 3.4% 19.5% 39.6% 1B $3,500 1B/3B $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.317 0.335 0.148 38.9% 8.8% 24.8% 46.7% 3B $2,200 3B $2,300 N/A N/A
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.274 0.265 0.271 27.3% 2.0% 30.6% 30.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.298 0.350 0.147 40.4% 4.2% 15.3% 42.1% C $2,000 C $2,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Jed Lowrie, Chad Pinder, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Baltimore
pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl baltimoremlb Wade Miley
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.399 0.352 37.8% 8.6% 16.5% 36.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.312 35.7% 9.2% 21.2% 56.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.285 28.6% 6.7% 19.0% 47.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.347 33.5% 8.1% 19.3% 47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 11 4.82 6.02 18.0% 9.0% 38.9% 33.1% 16.9%

Kuhl has struggled this season, posting a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. This seems like a good matchup for Kuhl, as he holds righties to a .285 xwOBA, but he is pitching on the road in a hitter’s environment. The Orioles may not have many lefties in their lineup, but their right-handed hitters are very good at hitting right-handed pitching. We can find better plays in this 12 game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is an easy fade in all formats against the Orioles.

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 11 4.55 2.82 20.6% 12.2% 55.2% 35.4% 22.3%

I say this before every Miley start – he’s not nearly as good of a pitcher as his 2.82 ERA wants you to believe. His SIERA is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA. A pitcher with a walk rate of 12% and a hard contact rate of 35% isn’t going to be able to sustain an ERA this low. On paper, a matchup against the Pirates isn’t too daunting, but the over/under for this game is set at 9.0 runs and we know that runs can be put up on the scoreboard quickly in Camden Yards.

Quick Breakdown: My fade Wade Miley quest continues.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates don’t hit left-handed pitching particularly well, ranking in the bottom ten in both team wOBA and team ISO, but they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Baltimore and they also get to utilize the DH. In the last two seasons, Wade Miley has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Josh Harrison, David Freese, and Andrew McCutchen all hit southpaws well and should all be fairly low owned in this large of a slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.315 0.330 0.159 27.8% 13.6% 14.7% 45.2% SS $3,000 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.364 0.287 0.186 32.2% 3.9% 15.0% 37.1% 3B $3,400 2B/3B $4,200 2B $8,000
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.315 0.298 0.175 29.0% 8.8% 27.7% 48.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.387 0.375 0.185 44.1% 14.3% 25.7% 58.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.358 0.367 0.239 37.4% 13.4% 17.9% 37.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.348 0.376 0.046 41.7% 13.7% 14.7% 57.7% C $3,000 C $3,400 C $6,600
7 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.283 0.317 0.200 25.9% 9.5% 16.2% 55.6% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
8 Jose Osuna RIGHT 0.297 0.235 0.212 18.5% 8.3% 16.7% 66.7% OF $2,300 1B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
9 Phil Gosselin RIGHT 0.279 0.226 0.061 21.6% 6.9% 22.2% 54.0% 2B $2,000 2B $2,900 2B $5,700

Elite Plays – David Freese

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

This matchup doesn’t set up perfectly for the Orioles, but they are still facing a below-average pitcher at home in Camden Yards. We shouldn’t shy away from their offense just because they will only have two or three left-handed hitters in it. Obviously, the preferred targets here are Seth Smith and Chris Davis, thanks to Chad Kuhl allowing a .352 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. I’m not opposed to an Orioles’ stack, especially the one through five batters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.336 0.367 0.171 33.0% 10.7% 21.0% 45.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.342 0.195 32.7% 5.4% 16.4% 43.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.343 0.357 0.239 35.1% 6.8% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 0.379 0.264 37.8% 7.9% 23.3% 39.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.346 0.351 0.262 42.5% 13.7% 34.9% 36.5% 1B $4,000 1B $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.337 0.316 0.200 29.4% 3.1% 19.5% 42.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.400 0.383 0.282 38.5% 7.4% 25.9% 40.4% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.286 0.290 0.113 30.0% 4.7% 16.9% 43.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.237 0.260 0.072 23.5% 3.4% 21.1% 43.8% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Rick Porcello nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.308 35.5% 4.1% 21.6% 37.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.282 18.9% 9.1% 23.2% 51.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.318 31.4% 3.5% 21.4% 45.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.301 29.1% 8.3% 18.9% 49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.78 3.15 21.2% 3.6% 43.1% 30.0% 16.9%
2017 12 3.79 4.24 22.2% 4.3% 37.9% 42.7% 17.8%

Porcello has allowed a ton of hard contact (43%), which has led to a higher ERA than he had in his Cy Young season a year ago. While that’s a small concern, his advanced stats look eerily similar to last year. He currently owns a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of only 4%. I expect him to improve moving forward, but will not be targeting him in a road start against the Yankees, who are tied with the Astros for the highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is viable moving forward, but let’s wait for a better matchup before targeting him in DFS.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 11 4.41 4.12 19.5% 8.5% 47.3% 34.7% 20.2%

Sabathia got off to a slow start this season, but seems to be rounding into form. He has won four straight games and has three quality starts during that stretch. When he was at his best a season ago, he was limited hard contact and inducing a lot of soft contact. He’s been able to recover some of that form in his last four starts and it’s worth noting that he has racked up 16 strikeouts in his last two outings. I’m not saying all of this because I want to play him tonight against the Red Sox, I’m saying it to back up my point that we may not want to load up on Boston’s offense.

Quick Breakdown: There are typically a lot of runs scored between these two teams. I will be avoiding both pitchers in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.0 runs. We all know that Yankee Stadium is a great ballpark for hitters (especially left-handed hitters), but CC Sabathia isn’t nearly as bad as people think he is. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate. If you take Sabathia’s name out of the equation, we shouldn’t be that interested in the Red Sox offense. The current roster for Boston has 118 plate appearances against Sabathia and has a combined .306 wOBA with 30 strikeouts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.340 0.345 0.247 34.9% 5.1% 9.0% 38.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
2 Chris Young RIGHT 0.379 0.332 0.202 32.9% 11.0% 18.6% 23.2% P $5,500 P $5,000 LF $6,300
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.371 0.344 0.163 33.1% 10.4% 15.9% 45.9% SS $3,600 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.417 0.396 0.296 37.5% 12.6% 18.3% 42.5% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
5 Sam Travis RIGHT 0.585 0.358 0.100 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 50.0% 1B $2,700 1B $2,700 1B $5,200
6 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.291 0.310 0.094 28.0% 8.6% 20.0% 52.0% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $2,600 2B $5,100
7 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.421 0.379 0.215 27.2% 11.0% 13.8% 40.0% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.324 0.284 0.158 30.7% 8.5% 23.9% 51.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.388 0.342 0.393 31.6% 6.7% 30.0% 47.4% SS $2,000 3B $2,900 3B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Chris Young, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Sam Travis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees are the preferred offense to target in this game, even though a matchup against Rick Porcello seems a lot tougher than a matchup against CC Sabathia. The way I see it, I want to exploit the pitcher that gives up more hard contact and that is clearly Porcello. He has a massive 43% hard contact rate this season and he is near the top of the majors in barrels allowed. The one through four Yankees’ stack is awfully appealing in tournaments and we can look to Brett Gardner and Gary Sanchez as one-off targets in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.347 0.328 0.153 30.5% 12.4% 17.1% 47.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.426 0.382 0.312 38.9% 8.5% 22.0% 48.0% C $3,600 C $4,600 C $9,000
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.409 0.401 0.311 50.4% 11.5% 33.7% 39.7% OF $4,500 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.347 0.355 0.214 36.2% 9.2% 20.5% 50.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.329 0.305 0.172 31.2% 3.4% 19.1% 49.8% 2B $2,900 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.343 0.314 0.158 25.6% 12.6% 17.5% 46.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.308 0.264 0.176 25.1% 3.2% 15.6% 41.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.318 0.316 0.152 30.8% 10.7% 26.0% 43.9% 3B $2,700 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.331 0.347 0.246 39.3% 11.8% 34.4% 29.5% 1B $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $6,000

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious