The Relief Brief: Wednesday, August 31st

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-01 01:42:49

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Wednesday night features a ten game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Brandon Finnegan continues to outpitch expectations, though he still doesn’t inspire confidence. Through five starts in August, Finnegan has posted an improved 4.04 xFIP compared to a season long xFIP of 4.96. Finnegan has also managed to toss at least six innings in five of his last six starts. He’ll face the Angels tonight, and should be expected to go about six innings once again. The Reds bullpen is still bad, in case you forgot. They’ve allowed a 4.24 SIERA and a HR/9 rate of 1.58 in the last 30 days.

Adam Morgan has allowed 20 home runs through 80 innings pitched, and that goes along with a 6.50 ERA. Needless to say, Adam Morgan hasn’t impressed this season. In his last four starts, Morgan has a total of 19 innings pitched (less that five innings per outing on average). I expect to see plenty of the Phillies bullpen in this game as they face the Nationals in Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies ‘pen has given up the second most HR/9 in all of baseball this season.

Corey Kluber is the ace of this Cleveland staff, and he will need to be once again tonight. Kluber has gone six or more innings in nine straight starts and in 22 of 26 starts on the season. This Cleveland bullpen is worn out. The table below shows an incredible amount of pitches thrown by this relief staff over the last three days (and that trend stretches well beyond the last three days thanks to poor starting pitching performances). Expect Kluber to have a long leash tonight as he tries to spare his ‘pen from another taxing evening. I expect him to rise to the occasion.

Editor’s Note: David Phelps has been scratched from tonight’s start.

David Phelps had been a recent DFS darling thanks to his improved velocity and improved numbers all around – that was, until the lowly Padres lit him up in his last outing. Despite his failed outing last time out, Phelps has been very good in a starting role since the beginning of August. The one exception to Phelps’ success is the fact that he hasn’t pitched beyond the sixth inning (or more than 96 pitches) in any outing. He may bounce back tonight, but we can’t expect long outings from Phelps at this point. The Marlins bullpen will likely be asked to finish at least three innings, and this is a bullpen unit that owns the fifth worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days. Combine the recent lack of execution with a hot hitting team, and it may be a good spot to attack.

In Matt Wisler’s last outing, I saw a lot of “Cy Wisler” mentions in my Twitter timeline as Wisler pitched eight innings of one run baseball against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. I’m choosing to look at the larger sample size however. That sample size shows us that Wisler has allowed 22 home runs in 21 starts with a 4.89 xFIP and a knack for exiting the game around the sixth inning with consistency. Expect the Braves to pick up the pieces somewhere around the sixth inning tonight as the Braves face Padres at home. The ballpark certainly sets up in the pitchers favor (bullpens included), and the Braves bullpen has allowed the lowest HR/9 in baseball this season, largely for that reason. While I don’t anticipate Wisler going eight strong again, this may be a better spot to take an arm than it is to take bats, given the ballpark.

Since returning from the DL in early August, Ryan Vogelsong has pitched reasonably well. In his first two starts, Vogelsong pitched 12 innings of one run baseball. In his three starts since, Vogelsong’s xFIP has soared to 6.02 with seven earned runs. Tonight, he will face the Cubs, which could further implode his respectable August numbers. I liked the Cubs to do some damage against the Pirates fatigued bullpen last night (which didn’t quite happen), and I like them to do it tonight as well.

Luke Weaver has gotten better in each of his three big league starts so far this season. While Miller Park isn’t an easy place to pitch, Weaver has been limiting hard contact to righties and striking out batters from both sides of the plate. Still, he is young and hasn’t pitched beyond six innings in the big leagues yet, so we can expect to see a decent amount of the Cardinals bullpen tonight. The Cardinals bullpen has really stepped it up over the last month, to the tune of a 3.41 SIERA and a 25.6 strikeout percentage.

Luis Cessa has gone six innings in each of his two major league starts. Cessa’s peripheral numbers also look strong, as he has posted a combined 3.35 xFIP over those 12 innings to go along with 10 strikeouts. The Royals have been waking up offensively, as their lineup is starting to take similar form to their 2015 lineup, but they’re not quite at that form yet and are still susceptible to poor offensive outputs. Cessa will need to put together another strong outing, because this Yankees bullpen is wiped out. Tyler Clippard, Dellin Betances, Adam Warren, Blake Parker and Kirby Yates have all been worked hard lately.

My Top 3 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Miami Marlins
3. Pittsburgh Pirates

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Dodgers recalled Casey Fien from AAA OKC and optioned Pedro Baez to AA Tulsa. Fien should return to a middle relief role.

The Braves recalled John Gant from AAA. The young righty hasn’t made much of an impact in the big leagues and should have a minor role for the Braves ‘pen. The Braves also recalled Shae Simmons from AAA. Simmons has a great arm, but has had Tommy John surgery in the past and also struggles with control.

The Tigers recalled Blaine Hardy from AAA. Hardy will work middle relief in low impact spots.

3. Other Notes And Insights

In 82 plus innings pitched, Rich Hill has a HR/FB rate of 2.9% in 2016. It’s a relatively small sample size, but it’s a great stat to keep in mind heading into a game in Coors Field (again).

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

Legend