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MLB Grind Down: Friday, April 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-27 19:21:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Zack Godley washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-152 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.301 31.5% 10.0% 26.1% 62.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.283 23.3% 8.2% 27.1% 48.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.297 32.7% 7.1% 26.3% 49.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.247 0.275 31.3% 4.9% 30.6% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
zachary-godley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.67 3.37 26.3% 8.5% 55.3% 32.2% 18.6%
2018 4 3.39 3.09 25.3% 8.4% 58.1% 31.8% 25.4%

We kick off tonight’s 14-game slate with a potential pitcher’s duel in the nation’s capital. Godley is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball, at least outside of DFS circles. He had a tremendous 2017 campaign and so far, he has backed it up this season with a 3.39 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 25%. His ability to induce ground balls and strike batters out at a high rate makes him a viable play in nearly any matchup and in nearly any ballpark. Even though he’s a sizable underdog tonight against the Nationals, he’s an excellent leverage play in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is one of the top pitching options for cash games, but Godley makes a strong leverage play in tournaments.

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $10,800 Salary: $21,500
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 3.37 2.52 29.1% 6.7% 46.8% 27.3% 21.4%
2018 5 3.23 2.97 27.1% 6.0% 46.0% 26.4% 23.0%

In terms of a raw projection, I have Corey Kluber slightly ahead of Strasburg tonight. However, given the $1,100 discount on FanDuel and the $2,100 discount on DraftKings, Strasburg is the preferred target. In five starts this season, Strasburg owns a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He has great splits in this ballpark throughout his career and he draws an exploitable matchup against the Diamondbacks. Arizona’s projected lineup has a .288 xwOBA and a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There are a handful of pitchers that I will be using in tournaments tonight, but Strasburg is my favorite SP1 for cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

This is not a game that we should be looking toward for hitters. Stephen Strasburg has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA over the last two seasons. In these full slates, we can be selective with the offenses that we target.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.356 0.324 0.166 37.1% 7.9% 17.0% 52.9% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 RF $6,300
2 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.300 0.322 0.119 25.1% 9.0% 14.1% 43.8% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,000 SS $5,800
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.388 0.385 0.248 41.5% 13.9% 24.8% 46.8% 1B $4,200 1B $4,600 1B $8,900
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.340 0.343 0.188 36.9% 8.6% 19.6% 42.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 CF $8,300
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.326 0.337 0.168 41.1% 12.2% 21.4% 36.0% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,700
6 Alex Avila LEFT 0.368 0.418 0.205 54.6% 16.8% 33.8% 36.6% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,400
7 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.259 0.253 0.146 31.0% 7.1% 24.1% 43.1% SS $2,900 SS $2,700 SS $5,600
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.306 0.287 0.121 18.4% 7.5% 14.0% 44.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 CF $5,900
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.049 0.061 0.000 11.8% 2.6% 53.8% 60.0% P $9,100 P $8,600 P $16,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are sizable favorites at home, but still have one of the toughest matchups on the board. Zack Godley has a 50%+ ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters and a 25% strikeout rate to boot. Bryce Harper and Matt Adams will garner some ownership as one-off targets, but this offense is a full fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.350 0.328 0.177 29.6% 7.7% 18.5% 51.6% SS $4,000 SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,100
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.353 0.314 0.161 30.4% 4.7% 20.9% 60.4% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,700
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.447 0.435 0.342 36.3% 18.4% 16.6% 37.4% OF $4,700 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.357 0.381 0.243 41.0% 6.9% 23.9% 45.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.375 0.368 0.267 39.9% 8.0% 24.6% 35.6% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,100 1B $5,600
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.271 0.306 0.123 29.1% 8.4% 18.0% 40.9% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,400
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.323 0.294 0.193 32.9% 8.1% 31.6% 43.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.279 0.271 0.066 19.9% 8.0% 20.4% 53.2% 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,900
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.157 0.213 0.068 11.1% 2.1% 22.9% 65.6% P $10,100 P $10,800 P $21,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb Julio Teheran philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-158 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.363 36.7% 13.0% 17.4% 37.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.300 28.4% 9.7% 20.5% 47.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.293 25.2% 4.9% 21.4% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.257 26.4% 4.7% 30.6% 52.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.89 4.49 18.6% 8.9% 40.0% 30.4% 21.1%
2018 5 4.54 4.00 23.5% 12.2% 36.6% 38.4% 16.4%

Teheran is an easy fade anytime he faces a left-handed heavy offense. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .363 xwOBA and d 37% hard contact rate to lefties. if we glance at the Phillies’ projected lineup, there are five batters that can hit from the left side of the plate. As an underdog in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Teheran is an easy avoid tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Bad matchup in a bad ballpark.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $9,300 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6%
2018 5 4.15 2.30 20.2% 7.6% 48.8% 15.3% 27.1%

Nola has a lower ERA this season, but the rest of his numbers have taken a hit. His SIERA is higher, while his strikeout rate is lower. Those aren’t major concerns though, as he is a talented young pitcher that is only expected to get better as the season progresses. He is not priced like an elite arm, which is always a positive when it comes to DFS. Even though the Braves are a high-contact offense, there aren’t many threats in their lineup outside of Freddie Freeman.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is viable as an SP2 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but have one of the worst matchups of the slate. Aaron Nola has an above-average strikeout and ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Freddie Freeman is viable as a one-off target in tournaments. Ronald Acuna is going to get more expensive and more popular over the next couple of weeks. While I want to be early rather than late, I’m not sure this is the best matchup for him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.326 0.291 0.103 23.7% 6.1% 14.0% 44.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 CF $7,600
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.322 0.328 0.174 30.5% 7.1% 17.5% 38.1% 2B $4,100 2B $4,500 2B $9,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.413 0.431 0.276 39.7% 14.9% 17.1% 32.1% 1B $4,500 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.328 0.346 0.112 34.3% 11.5% 15.0% 46.2% OF $3,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.360 0.342 0.226 33.8% 5.6% 12.3% 35.3% C $3,000 C $3,700 C $7,500
6 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.297 0.080 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.284 0.297 0.096 27.4% 9.9% 22.1% 48.0% SS $3,700 SS $3,600 SS $7,500
8 Ryan Flaherty LEFT 0.342 0.311 0.100 21.2% 13.3% 22.9% 59.4% 3B $3,000 3B $2,900 2B $5,600
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.139 0.168 0.000 8.5% 1.6% 21.3% 80.0% P $6,900 P $6,500 P $12,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies should fly under the radar tonight, despite an exploitable matchup against Julio Teheran. As mentioned above, he has not fared well against left-handed hitters in his career. In addition the xwOBA and hard contact rates listed above, he has a 13% walk rate and only a 17% strikeout rate against lefties. Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Odubel Herrera, and Nick Williams are all viable and if you want to complete the stack, Rhys Hoskins should be included as well. I don’t make home run predictions often, but this is a perfect spot for Santana and he has been hitting the ball hard this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.349 0.317 0.113 22.2% 11.2% 21.3% 49.2% 2B $3,500 2B $4,100 2B $8,200
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.349 0.391 0.207 36.0% 13.9% 17.2% 33.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.339 0.313 0.167 28.4% 6.4% 20.8% 41.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.428 0.405 0.314 42.2% 15.0% 24.2% 28.1% OF $4,800 OF $5,000 1B $10,200
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.339 0.340 0.191 36.1% 6.7% 28.2% 47.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 LF $5,600
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.282 0.328 0.155 37.5% 7.7% 29.2% 35.0% SS $3,000 3B/OF $3,700 SS $7,600
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.316 0.315 0.107 38.9% 14.9% 28.9% 55.8% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,900
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.308 0.289 0.130 20.6% 11.2% 25.0% 33.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,600
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.113 0.121 0.000 0.0% 8.9% 55.4% 82.4% P $8,400 P $9,300 P $17,600

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit Baltimore
detroitmlb Mike Fiers baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-120 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.346 30.7% 10.4% 19.8% 41.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.458 0.444 38.6% 18.5% 10.4% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.345 31.3% 7.1% 21.9% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.400 0.396 38.2% 5.6% 15.8% 34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1%
2018 3 4.61 3.71 13.2% 4.0% 47.5% 37.1% 17.7%

Fiers is off to a shaky start this season, posting a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He needs a high strikeout rate to succeed, as he is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. Even though the Orioles aren’t afraid to swing and miss, they have plenty of firepower in their lineup. With this game being played in Baltimore, I’d rather target the Orioles than Fiers.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,100
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 5.76 7.84 14.2% 11.5% 39.5% 37.7% 16.3%
2018 4 6.34 9.87 8.9% 12.2% 39.1% 41.4% 10.0%

Tillman is one of the only pitchers on the schedule that has worse numbers than Mike Fiers. In four starts this season, Tillman has a 6.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 9% and a walk rate of 12%. He has a low ground ball rate and he rarely induces soft contact. Even in a matchup against the Tigers, we shouldn’t touch Tillman with a ten-foot pole.

Quick Breakdown: It’s safe to assume that this will not be a pitcher’s duel.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are typically an offense to fade when they are facing a right-handed pitcher on the road, but we should make an exception tonight. They arguably have the best matchup on the schedule and are playing in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Chris Tillman has a low strikeout rate, he gives up a lot of fly-balls, and he has allowed a .396+ xwOBA and a 38%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. You know a pitcher is bad when we are contemplating a full Tigers’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.282 0.322 0.145 27.1% 7.0% 23.1% 35.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.372 0.346 0.210 32.4% 9.2% 18.9% 43.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.304 0.379 0.150 42.4% 9.3% 19.8% 43.5% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.331 0.376 0.187 43.6% 6.3% 22.4% 35.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,400
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.312 0.375 0.133 43.1% 8.6% 13.9% 36.9% C $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.276 0.307 0.117 36.4% 5.7% 24.1% 38.8% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,800
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.268 0.293 0.121 37.2% 5.8% 36.4% 48.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.278 0.263 0.115 27.3% 3.9% 15.1% 52.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $5,500
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.298 0.307 0.106 36.1% 6.2% 17.4% 52.7% 2B $3,000 2B $3,200 SS $6,300

Elite Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are yelling, “don’t forget about us tonight,” as they are a viable stack in this game as well. Mike Fiers has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a 37% hard contact rate this season. This game features a total of 10.0 runs and the Orioles are the slightest of favorites. Much like Chris Tillman, Fiers doesn’t have glaring splits against batters with either handedness. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .345+ xwOBA to both lefties and righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.354 0.358 0.208 34.6% 7.0% 23.0% 50.1% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,700
2 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.393 0.314 0.241 33.3% 9.1% 37.9% 56.3% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $5,400
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.339 0.372 0.213 36.4% 8.5% 16.7% 41.5% SS $4,600 SS $5,100 3B $9,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.330 0.322 0.192 31.3% 3.1% 18.6% 44.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.316 0.342 0.221 41.6% 12.3% 34.0% 40.4% 1B $2,500 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.288 0.274 0.141 25.5% 5.7% 26.6% 49.0% 3B $2,200 3B $2,700 1B $5,900
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.308 0.348 0.122 32.1% 12.9% 24.7% 37.7% 1B $2,300 1B/3B $3,100 1B $5,900
8 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.241 0.289 0.129 36.2% 1.4% 18.1% 29.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 LF $5,600
9 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.291 0.305 0.095 29.9% 13.0% 21.7% 58.6% OF $2,000 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Chance Sisco (DK)

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Pittsburgh
stlouismlb Miles Mikolas pittsburghmlb Steven Brault
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.361 43.2% 0.0% 17.0% 32.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.255 0.296 20.8% 7.9% 14.3% 51.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.234 0.300 25.6% 3.9% 21.2% 68.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.381 41.5% 10.5% 14.5% 39.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miles Mikolas
miles-mikolas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 4 3.52 3.46 19.1% 1.9% 49.4% 34.9% 18.1%

Do you know that cough drop commercial where the guy screams “Ricola?” Every time I see Mikolas on the schedule, I have no choice but to say his name the same way — Mikolaaaaaas. In his first four starts this season, he has a 3.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. While I like his name and the fact that he pitches for the Cardinals, I’m not sold on him as a great fantasy option in the long run. He’s never been a high-strikeout pitcher and there isn’t anything to suggest that it’s going to change anytime soon.

Quick Breakdown: At a similar price point, I would rather target Drew Pomeranz against the Rays.

Steven Brault
steven-brault-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.23 4.67 14.2% 8.6% 40.8% 33.3% 21.1%
2018 4 5.45 4.44 14.9% 11.9% 44.3% 41.7% 25.0%

Brault is an easy pitcher to avoid when it comes to daily fantasy. He has a high SIERA, he doesn’t have good command, and his low strikeout rate magnifies any mistakes that he makes. To make matters worse, he is facing a Cardinals’ offense that is loaded with right-handed power. Their projected lineup has a .364 wOBA against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: No Brault, no problem.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are sneaky tonight. I’m not going to recommend a full stack given the ballpark, but they are certainly sneaky. Over the last two seasons, Steven Brault has allowed a .381 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Tommy Pham, Yadier Molina, and Jose Martinez (who nobody ever plays) are two of the best hitters in baseball against southpaws, sporting xwOBAs of .409, .462, and .520, respectively. All three are elite one-off targets in tournaments and I would even consider them viable in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.293 0.372 0.103 34.8% 17.0% 23.3% 35.6% 2B $3,400 2B/3B $3,900 3B $7,600
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.424 0.409 0.252 37.2% 18.0% 19.4% 52.9% OF $4,200 OF $4,700 CF $8,700
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.518 0.520 0.394 39.3% 15.5% 17.9% 30.4% 1B $3,600 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.329 0.335 0.109 37.9% 10.8% 19.3% 53.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,400
5 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.297 0.348 0.143 38.6% 11.1% 18.1% 44.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,500
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.340 0.462 0.280 49.1% 3.7% 10.3% 30.7% C $3,600 C $3,800 C $7,300
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.370 0.272 0.302 35.6% 10.3% 34.6% 39.0% SS $4,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,000
8 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.388 0.378 0.252 31.9% 9.1% 13.2% 37.2% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,600
9 Miles Mikolas RIGHT 0.000 0.176 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $6,700 P $7,600 P $14,900

Elite Plays – Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina (DK)

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

I’m taking a stand against Miles Mikolas tonight, but I will not be doubling down on my take by targeting the Pirates’ offense. This is a situation where I don’t want to target the pitcher or the opposing offense. For what it’s worth, Mikolas has been a reverse-splits pitcher over the course of his 117 career major league innings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.317 0.328 0.134 28.4% 8.0% 12.3% 49.1% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,600
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.313 0.336 0.176 29.8% 8.7% 14.0% 39.1% OF $3,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.356 0.330 0.140 26.0% 7.3% 17.5% 46.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,400 CF $8,500
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.335 0.327 0.198 32.4% 10.6% 20.1% 51.7% 1B $3,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,500
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.337 0.334 0.212 33.8% 5.9% 21.8% 36.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,300
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.336 0.342 0.142 33.5% 10.6% 19.5% 46.8% C $2,600 C $3,600 C $7,400
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.347 0.379 0.169 40.7% 8.9% 16.5% 37.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,100 3B $5,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.307 0.299 0.145 27.5% 9.2% 16.1% 46.6% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Steven Brault LEFT 0.187 0.195 0.063 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% P $6,200 P $4,200 P $8,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Texas Toronto
texasmlb Mike Minor torontomlb Marcus Stroman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-155 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.205 0.229 35.3% 6.8% 35.0% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.332 33.0% 9.4% 18.1% 66.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.275 28.7% 7.3% 24.3% 33.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.322 33.2% 7.0% 21.5% 59.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Minor
mike-minor-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $12,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.16 2.55 28.7% 7.2% 42.4% 27.6% 22.5%
2018 4 4.12 3.86 23.3% 7.0% 28.6% 40.4% 15.8%

Minor? I hardly know her. Sorry, but I had to do it. I’ve been watching re-runs of The Office and that’s one of my favorite episodes. While he was great out of the bullpen last season, he needs more than four decent outings to prove that he’s capable of being a quality starter in the big leagues. The betting markets agree with me, as Minor is listed as a sizable underdog against the Blue Jays in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: I need to see more from Minor before targeting him on the road in a hitter’s park.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4%
2018 4 4.28 8.55 21.7% 14.4% 69.4% 50.0% 17.7%

Stroman has been lit up this season to the tune of a 8.55 ERA, a 14% walk rate, and a 50% hard contact rate. Yikes. The advanced numbers suggest that he’s been a little unlucky, but those are still some alarming numbers. To his credit, he has faced the Yankees twice, the Indians in Cleveland, and the Rangers in Arlington. I typically like to see some form first, but this is an enticing matchup for Stroman. Eight of the nine projected starters for Texas have a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching. Combined, their strikeout rate is 27%. Betting markets still believe in Stroman and he is dirt cheap across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is one of the top SP2 targets for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers scored five runs against Marcus Stroman in their first meeting this season, but the game was in Texas and it was aided by five walks. The best course of action here is to get exposure to both sides of this matchup (on different lineups, of course). A Rangers’ hedge stack isn’t a bad idea, especially in this ballpark. Individually, there are two batters that stand out here. Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo both own a .375+ xwOBA and a 40%+ hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.301 0.260 0.065 24.7% 9.4% 22.8% 49.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 CF $6,500
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.340 0.382 0.197 40.3% 11.7% 22.0% 45.8% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
3 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.261 0.299 0.039 24.7% 13.2% 19.0% 36.7% SS $2,900 2B/SS $2,900 3B $5,500
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.327 0.337 0.180 35.3% 9.4% 20.5% 43.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,300
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.361 0.379 0.332 45.8% 13.7% 34.2% 30.0% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,100
6 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.337 0.334 0.243 37.7% 9.4% 28.9% 39.4% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,900
7 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.318 0.283 0.122 46.7% 2.4% 26.2% 41.4% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,100 3B $5,500
8 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.286 0.223 0.206 33.3% 5.6% 27.8% 33.3% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 1B $5,500
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.275 0.285 0.157 34.7% 12.5% 40.6% 45.9% SS $2,000 2B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,900

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (GPP), Joey Gallo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo (Cash), Joey Gallo (Cash), Delino DeShields, Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays deserve consideration for a few reasons tonight. We’ll start with their matchup against Mike Minor, who is a fly-ball pitcher that can struggle with right-handed power. Toronto is playing at home, which is always a boost for their offense at home. They are also cheap across the industry. You can easily stack the Blue Jays with Stephen Strasburg tonight. Individually, Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, and Justin Smoak deserve consideration in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.347 0.357 0.246 35.6% 7.5% 21.8% 40.0% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,400
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.238 0.335 0.186 40.0% 2.2% 42.2% 28.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,600
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.397 0.388 0.195 34.9% 11.9% 14.7% 40.3% 1B $3,700 1B $3,700 1B $7,400
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.267 0.323 0.109 28.4% 9.1% 9.7% 46.1% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 2B $7,700
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.273 0.331 0.108 32.7% 16.1% 28.0% 39.6% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $6,000
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.364 0.334 0.201 31.5% 5.5% 14.8% 40.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
7 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.255 0.209 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 28.6% 80.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 LF $5,600
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.273 0.348 0.176 37.8% 8.4% 28.2% 29.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 LF $5,700
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.230 0.251 0.039 21.9% 8.3% 15.5% 42.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,300 SS $6,300

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Russell Martin (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious