MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-20 02:54:43

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Houston					Baltimore
			Collin McHugh					Wade Miley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -115					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.313	16	25.3%	21.0%	SP vs. Left	0.298	6	26.8%	18.3%
SP vs. Right	0.336	21	29.1%	21.2%	SP vs. Right	0.340	31	27.7%	17.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Collin McHugh
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		28.1	FPPG:		14.1
					Pitcher Rating:		63.2	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	90.6	3.34	6.58	25.0%	3.5%	9.5%	37.5%	32.5%	40.2%
2016	24	96.0	3.89	4.70	22.8%	6.5%	10.8%	42.7%	36.5%	30.8%
2015	32	101.3	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh’s ERA may not show it, but he has actually been pitching well if you look at his peripheral stats. In his last five starts, he has a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 3.5%. He is a pitcher that I will have an eye on moving forward, as his price continues to come down across the industry. As for his fantasy appeal tonight, there are better matchups than having to face the Orioles in Camden Yards (we saw what happened with MusGOAT last night). On the season, Baltimore is ranked second in both team wOBA (.342) and team ISO (.198).

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Wade Miley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,100
					FPPG:		23.4	FPPG:		11.0
					Pitcher Rating:		51.6	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	6	92.2	4.43	4.67	17.4%	7.6%	8.1%	50.9%	29.2%	29.6%
2016	22	93.1	4.58	5.23	16.6%	7.2%	8.6%	47.3%	32.1%	31.7%
2015	32	99.8	4.24	4.46	17.7%	7.7%	8.3%	48.8%	30.5%	24.7%

Miley is one of those pitchers that we love to see on the schedule. Unfortunately for him, it’s because we get excited to target hitters against him. In 22 starts this season, he has a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.6%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and he pitches in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Even though the bottom half of the Astros’ lineup is struggling right now, I want no part of Miley in this ballpark. He is an easy fade for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros may not have the best numbers against left-handed pitching as a whole, but their projected lineup has six hitters with at least a .342 wOBA against lefties in the last two seasons. The Astros see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they draw an exploitable matchup against Wade Miley, who has allowed a .340 wOBA and 31 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (13 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.309 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.185 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.5% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.86 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.409	0.264	0.344	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.347	0.192	0.348	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,600
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.432	0.195	0.461	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,500
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.354	0.217	0.412	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,000
5	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.342	0.202	0.256	1B	$2,700	1B/3B	$4,200
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.317	0.226	0.369	C	$3,000	C	$4,300
7	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.283	0.192	0.185	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,200
8	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.386	0.500	0.285	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.285	0.197	0.203	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.243	0.318	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles’ offense has been ice cold over the last month of play (with the exception of last night), but they come into tonight’s game with the 11th highest team total on the board. They draw a decent matchup against Collin McHugh, who has allowed a .313 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. McHugh has also given up 37 home runs during that stretch.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (2 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.308 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.72 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.59 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.347	0.211	0.369	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,900
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.396	0.130	0.326	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.383	0.246	0.414	3B	$4,000	3B/SS	$4,900
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.380	0.304	0.401	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.344	0.218	0.266	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300
6	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.350	0.253	0.388	3B	$3,300	1B	$4,700
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.315	0.157	0.290	C	$2,800	C	$3,600
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.358	0.225	0.291	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,800
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.282	0.125	0.384	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.208	0.348	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Miami					Pittsburgh
			Tom Koehler					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -170					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.327	22	34.1%	18.7%	SP vs. Left	0.293	6	31.9%	24.0%
SP vs. Right	0.309	11	28.3%	16.7%	SP vs. Right	0.276	8	26.8%	21.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tom Koehler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		27.4	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		49.7	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	5	97.8	3.84	1.36	22.6%	5.7%	13.9%	43.2%	39.8%	28.1%
2016	24	94.0	4.84	3.86	18.6%	10.3%	9.8%	41.4%	35.0%	26.6%
2015	31	96.0	4.67	4.08	17.1%	9.6%	7.3%	46.0%	35.6%	34.5%

Koehler has quietly been in great form over the last month of play, posting a 1.36 ERA (3.84 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 22.6%. His swinging strike rate during that stretch jumped all the way to 13.9%. We should definitely keep our eyes on him moving forward, especially the next time he draws a favorable matchup at home. Tonight he head to Pittsburgh as a sizable underdog to take on the Pirates. It’s not the worst matchup in the slate, but run support could be an issue with Gerrit Cole pitching opposite him.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Gerrit Cole
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		82.6	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.66	3.60	20.0%	4.6%	10.1%	54.3%	26.1%	28.7%
2016	18	94.6	4.11	3.25	19.6%	6.4%	8.5%	46.1%	29.0%	28.8%
2015	32	101.2	3.23	2.60	24.3%	5.3%	10.2%	48.0%	29.6%	29.5%

Cole has pitched well since coming back from injury, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% in his last five starts. He is recently generating more swings and misses and inducing a higher ground both rate – both of which are promising moving forward. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Marlins, who have the third lowest team ISO (.136) against right-handed pitching this season. Cole is one of the elite pitching options available tonight and his price is cheap across the industry.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins’ offense has been sputtering since losing Giancarlo Stanton. They no longer have that home run threat in the middle of their lineup. They come into tonight’s game with the second lowest implied team total in the slate. The only fantasy options that standout here are the speedy left-handed hitters. Gerrit Cole has allowed 42 stolen bases in the last two seasons and Francisco Cervelli allows a successful stolen base rate of 78.8%, which is the second highest of any catcher in the slate.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.316 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.136 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.26 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.34 (29 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.324	0.076	0.326	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,800
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.312	0.102	0.448	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.375	0.172	0.310	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,200
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.305	0.145	0.247	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
5	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.362	0.177	0.378	1B	$2,400	2B	$3,400
6	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.268	0.045	0.346	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.316	0.119	0.321	C	$2,900	C	$4,000
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.271	0.079	0.237	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
9	Tom Koehler	RIGHT	0.110	0.014	0.392	P	$7,400	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.294	0.103	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season, so it should come as no surprise that they have a slightly below-average run projection tonight. They draw a decent matchup against Tom Koehler, who has allowed a .327 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .309 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The Pirates are in a decent spot, but don’t get carried away here.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (19 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (26 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.96 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.58 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.16 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.293	0.102	0.333	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,500
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.351	0.153	0.267	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,000
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.355	0.184	0.428	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300
4	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.333	0.164	0.220	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.357	0.203	0.483	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.325	0.080	0.466	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
7	John Jaso	LEFT	0.336	0.140	0.398	1B	$2,900	1B	$2,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.272	0.077	0.238	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,700
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.106	0.000	0.000	P	$9,100	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.123	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
St. Louis					Philadelphia
			Adam Wainwright					Adam Morgan
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -170					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.331	3	30.3%	17.8%	SP vs. Left	0.314	4	24.6%	14.7%
SP vs. Right	0.302	8	28.9%	19.0%	SP vs. Right	0.375	26	35.7%	16.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Wainwright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		26.3	FPPG:		12.9
					Pitcher Rating:		61.9	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	5	95.6	4.32	7.36	19.3%	7.6%	7.1%	45.2%	31.0%	33.7%
2016	24	96.0	4.28	4.72	18.6%	6.5%	8.1%	44.7%	30.3%	31.0%
2015	4	95.8	3.45	1.61	18.0%	3.6%	7.8%	51.2%	22.6%	21.8%

Wainwright has been hit hard in his last five starts, posting a 7.36 ERA with a hard hit contact rate of 33.7%. His home/road splits this season are drastic, with him pitching much better at home. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies, but the combination of form and his road struggles make him a better GPP play than a cash game target. I will certainly have a GPP lineup or two with him on DraftKings ($6,600), but he is overpriced on FanDuel ($8,500).

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Morgan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		15.7	FPPG:		6.7
					Pitcher Rating:		27.5	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	1	58.0	8.29	6.00	0.0%	6.7%	5.2%	14.3%	50.0%	35.7%
2016	13	93.5	4.48	6.62	17.6%	5.3%	10.4%	34.5%	40.3%	37.0%
2015	15	83.1	4.94	4.48	13.9%	4.8%	9.7%	30.6%	49.3%	29.8%

Morgan is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball to target hitters against. In 13 starts this season, he has a 6.62 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.6%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 37%. That combination leads to a lot of extra-base hits against him, which is exactly what we want from our hitters in DFS. Morgan grades out as one of the worst pitching options in the entire slate.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals may be ranked 23rd in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season, but we can throw that statistic right out the window tonight. They draw one of the best matchups on the board, as they get to face Adam Morgan in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Over the last two seasons, Morgan has allowed a .375 wOBA, 26 home runs, and a hard hit contact rate of 35.7% to right-handed hitters.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.313 (23 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.315 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.8% (14 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.83 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.99 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.91 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.353	0.205	0.453	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,400
2	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.408	0.249	0.312	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,900
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.341	0.191	0.294	2B	$3,900	2B/3B	$4,800
4	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.310	0.155	0.360	1B	$3,900	1B/OF	$4,900
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.292	0.072	0.424	C	$2,900	C	$3,900
6	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.300	0.181	0.335	SS	$3,200	3B/SS	$4,000
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.313	0.121	0.355	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$4,100
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.317	0.212	0.503	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.203	0.200	0.414	P	$8,500	P	$6,600
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.176	0.383	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Tommh Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Adam Wainwright, who has been in awful form over the last month of play. In the last two seasons, Wainwright has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters, which brings a few Phillies’ hitters into discussion tonight. I don’t see anyone as a must play from this lineup, but there are some decent secondary options.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (28 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.311 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.159 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.7% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.76 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.82 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.304	0.094	0.368	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,700
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.146	0.304	OF	$2,800	OF	$5,000
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.324	0.191	0.286	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,000
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.329	0.253	0.526	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.299	0.151	0.391	C	$3,000	C	$4,800
6	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.354	0.224	0.271	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,400
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.287	0.124	0.355	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,600
8	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.277	0.146	0.303	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800
9	Adam Morgan	LEFT	0.091	0.054	0.000	P	$5,300	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.290	0.154	0.312	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
Boston					Detroit
			Rick Porcello					Michael Fulmer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -110					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.316	24	33.9%	20.5%	SP vs. Left	0.241	2	29.8%	17.6%
SP vs. Right	0.315	19	30.0%	19.9%	SP vs. Right	0.291	8	30.3%	26.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$11,400
					FPPG:		36.6	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		61.7	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	6	102.7	3.96	2.40	19.1%	3.0%	7.0%	43.3%	37.8%	37.2%
2016	24	101.9	3.88	3.30	20.3%	4.1%	7.4%	45.4%	35.9%	31.4%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Porcello is having a better season than most people realize. In 24 starts, he has a 3.30 ERA with as strikeout rate of 20.3% and a walk rate of 4.1%. He often gets overlooked in DFS thanks to his constant stream of difficult matchups in hitter-friendly ballparks. Tonight he takes on the Tigers in Detroit. The good news is that he will get to face a right-handed heavy lineup, the bad news is that those righties are talented hitters. Porcello is worth a look in tournaments, but there are better options in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		36.8	FPPG:		20.2
					Pitcher Rating:		65.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	98.4	3.48	2.55	19.7%	3.0%	9.6%	53.6%	24.7%	27.0%
2016	19	95.6	3.85	2.25	21.7%	6.8%	10.9%	50.6%	29.1%	30.0%

Fulmer is coming off of his first complete game. The Tigers are starting to worry about his workload, but it doesn’t sound like they are going to limit his innings in any one particular start. They will likely end up skipping him in the rotation if necessary. On the season, he has a 2.25 ERA (3.85 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 21.7%. He induces an above-average ground ball rate and he has managed to keep his hard hit contact rate down. The main issue tonight is his matchup. The Red Sox have the highest team wOBA (.351) in the majors against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox may be the best offense in baseball, but they come into tonight’s game with a slightly below-average run projection. They draw a difficult matchup against Michael Fulmer, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA this season. You could look to a few of these Red Sox hitters as one-off targets for tournaments, but there are better offenses to target in cash games.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.351 (1 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.343 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.49 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.354	0.145	0.364	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,300
2	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.334	0.119	0.204	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,000
3	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.426	0.337	0.454	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,900
4	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.372	0.219	0.550	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,100
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.311	0.152	0.351	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,200
6	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.377	0.275	0.311	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,900
7	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.333	0.134	0.577	C	$3,100	C	$2,800
8	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.331	0.184	0.216	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$2,800
9	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.339	0.108	0.340	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,000
	Team Averages	—	0.353	0.186	0.374	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Sandy Leon

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching this season, but like the Red Sox, they draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight. In the last two seasons, Rick Porcello has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA. Once again, you can look to a few of these Tigers’ hitters as one-off targets in tournaments, but there are better cash game options on the board.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (8 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.325 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.335	0.151	0.323	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,100
2	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.285	0.079	0.318	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,900
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.404	0.220	0.379	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.309	0.159	0.391	C	$3,300	1B	$3,400
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.375	0.243	0.469	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600
6	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.323	0.177	0.267	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,100
7	Casey McGehee	RIGHT	0.220	0.072	0.237	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,100
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.244	0.074	0.301	C	$2,200	C	$2,300
9	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.283	0.069	0.221	SS	$2,000	OF/SS	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.309	0.138	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HH%	K%
LA Dodgers					Cincinnati
			Bud Norris					Tim Adleman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -155					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.382	16	40.3%	20.8%	SP vs. Left	0.433	3	23.1%	20.5%
SP vs. Right	0.308	10	27.7%	20.1%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0	32.3%	18.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Bud Norris
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		17.4	FPPG:		8.9
					Pitcher Rating:		67.0	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	3	76.7	3.95	4.85	25.9%	9.3%	9.6%	37.1%	51.4%	28.6%
2016	16	106.6	4.08	4.26	21.9%	8.6%	9.4%	47.2%	32.0%	30.7%
2015	11	133.0	4.17	6.72	18.8%	8.2%	9.6%	43.4%	33.7%	36.9%

After a terrific string of starts in June and July, Norris has come back down to earth. In 16 starts overall, he has a 4.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9% and a walk rate of 8.6%. Tonight he heads to Cincinnati to take on the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. After the Reds put up five runs on Jose Fernandez last night, people will be scared to target Norris tonight. I see him as a great tournament play, especially on DraftKings ($5,700). The upside is there and he should see plenty of run support.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tim Adleman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		23.5	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		36.7	Pitcher Rank:		28
2016	4	84.0	4.83	3.72	19.3%	10.8%	8.9%	46.3%	38.9%	28.1%

Adleman is making his fifth start of the season. He currently owns a 4.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 20%. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. Not only is this a bad ballpark for pitchers, but the Dodgers have the fifth highest team wOBA (.340) over the last month of play. There is more risk than potential reward tonight for Adleman.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are coming off of a huge offensive series against the Phillies and now they get to take on a terrible Reds’ pitching staff in the Great American Ballpark. We should expect runs to come in bunches for the Dodgers in this series. Tonight they draw a favorable matchup against Tim Adleman. They will also get to see plenty of the Reds’ bullpen that just so happens to be the worst in all of baseball.

Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.340 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.52 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.82 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.306	0.142	0.311	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,500
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.400	0.231	0.393	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,300
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.388	0.235	0.432	3B	$3,500	3B	$5,100
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.356	0.183	0.199	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200
5	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.359	0.200	0.488	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,400
6	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.340	0.223	0.452	C	$3,300	C	$4,900
7	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.361	0.239	0.481	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700
8	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.327	0.134	0.420	2B	$3,000	2B/OF	$4,400
9	Bud Norris	RIGHT	0.299	0.111		P	$7,300	P	$5,700
	Team Averages	—	0.348	0.189	0.397	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, but they do have the ninth highest team wOBA in the last month of play. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Bud Norris, who can be either really good or really bad. Over the last two seasons, Norris has allowed a .382 wOBA and a hard hit contact rate of 40.3% to left-handed hitters.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (22 of 30)
Team wOBA L30 Days — 0.326 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.275	0.063	0.404	OF	$3,200	OF	$5,200
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.318	0.171	0.254	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.419	0.231	0.454	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,300
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.318	0.116	0.509	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,900
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.303	0.156	0.332	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,900
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.294	0.190	0.192	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,800
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.316	0.120	0.400	C	$2,400	C	$3,600
8	Tyler Holt	RIGHT	0.220	0.038	0.208	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000
9	Tim Adleman	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$5,800	P	$5,300
	Team Averages	—	0.274	0.121	0.344	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 19th

Stackability Rating System:

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Tommh Pham, Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts, Sandy Leon

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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