MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-13 02:55:28

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Houston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								NY Yankees
			Lance McCullers							Jordan Montgomery
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-107							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.281	26.7%	9.6%	31.9%	55.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.254	0.228	14.3%	7.1%	35.7%	71.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.291	21.5%	12.4%	27.7%	59.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.325	23.6%	12.3%	19.8%	37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance McCullers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$18,300
	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2016	14	3.68	3.22	30.1%	12.8%	57.3%	25.4%	19.9%
	2017	7	2.92	3.40	28.9%	7.5%	58.1%	21.3%	24.1%

McCullers is hoping to have the same success against the Yankees as his teammate, Dallas Keuchel. While I’m a fan of both pitchers, it’s hard to justify playing them in Yankee Stadium, especially in a full slate. McCullers still carries some deep tournament appeal, as he does boast a 29% strikeout rate with a 58% ground ball rate. The problem with the matchup is that the Yankees have a low strikeout rate and a high fly ball rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: The Yankees have struggled with above-average pitchers this season, but this is still a difficult matchup for McCullers.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30

	2017	5	4.58	3.81	21.7%	11.7%	40.5%	22.8%	12.7%

Montgomery is a hard-throwing lefty that hasn’t been able to put everything together at the major league level yet. He has shown nice strikeout potential, but he has walked at least two batters and has allowed at least two earned runs in each of his first five major league starts. When possible, I try to avoid targeting pitchers against the Astros, who have a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and some decent power against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, but he’s overpriced in tonight’s matchup against the Astros.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The sample size is small (five starts), but Jordan Montgomery splits against right-handed hitters are a lot worse than they are against lefties. The Astros will likely throw nine right-handed batters at him here and they see a small ballpark bump playing in Yankee Stadium. The usual suspects of George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, and Evan Gattis are all in play. I’m also high on Carlos Correa, who has one of the largest differences of any player in baseball between his wOBA and xwOBA against left-handed pitching. Some positive regression against lefties is coming.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.394	0.405	0.289	40.3%	12.6%	22.2%	45.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
2	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.384	0.344	0.217	40.4%	5.5%	20.1%	32.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.377	0.369	0.209	36.1%	11.4%	14.6%	43.5%	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,100	2B	$9,900
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.307	0.372	0.130	38.9%	14.0%	18.8%	49.6%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,900	SS	$9,600
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.373	0.365	0.263	32.9%	8.5%	18.5%	38.7%	C	$3,400	C	$3,900	C	$7,800
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.210	0.252	0.071	31.3%	1.4%	8.5%	45.3%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.327	0.282	0.203	28.9%	5.3%	25.0%	48.9%	1B	$3,200	3B/OF	$3,700	1B	$7,200
8	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.311	0.297	0.138	32.3%	8.8%	22.0%	31.7%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.312	0.302	0.161	30.0%	8.6%	25.9%	42.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,600

Elite Plays – Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

In a 15 game slate, we can afford to be picky. We don’t have to target Lance McCullers and we don’t have to target any of the Yankees’ hitters. My plan is to avoid both, as we have a good pitcher squaring off against a good offense. From the Yankees’ side, this is not a great matchup. McCullers has an extreme ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wxwOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.344	0.322	0.137	27.6%	13.1%	17.3%	49.9%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
2	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.432	0.383	0.315	39.3%	8.7%	21.7%	52.9%	C	$3,500	C	$4,500	C	$8,700
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.340	0.348	0.193	35.1%	9.8%	19.5%	52.3%	OF	$3,500	1B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.332	0.320	0.130	26.8%	10.1%	12.3%	47.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
5	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.384	0.378	0.320	46.9%	9.9%	33.7%	39.6%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,200
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.330	0.312	0.172	30.8%	3.7%	19.0%	49.4%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,000
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.329	0.324	0.162	32.3%	11.2%	25.7%	42.5%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,600
8	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.302	0.264	0.174	24.6%	3.4%	15.5%	41.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
9	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.335	0.351	0.248	39.7%	11.4%	33.9%	29.4%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Washington
			Nick Pivetta							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-180							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.265	46.2%	0.0%	18.8%	38.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.325	28.4%	10.7%	18.7%	41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.581	0.445	54.6%	3.1%	25.0%	31.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.271	0.296	21.4%	6.5%	21.4%	54.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30

	2017	2	3.38	5.40	22.9%	2.1%	34.3%	51.4%	5.7%

Was anyone else burned by the Orioles/Nationals game last night? I was honestly baffled when they said the game was postponed. The rain stopped minutes after the announcement and it sounds like it didn’t rain at all for the next few hours.

Pivetta is a young right-handed pitcher that is making his third career major league start. He has a good fastball (94+ MPH) and posted a 28% strikeout rate in his last eight minor league starts. There are some encouraging signs, but he is still an unknown quantity at the major league level. It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach, especially in a matchup against the Nationals on the road.

Quick Breakdown: At this stage of his career, there is more risk than potential reward with Pivetta.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	7	4.19	3.46	19.9%	8.2%	46.6%	26.5%	18.2%

Everyone has those pitchers or hitters that they just don’t play in DFS. For whatever reason, Roark is one of mine. He always seems a little overpriced for his middling strikeout upside, so I generally end up looking at other options. Roark is a very safe play tonight against the Phillies. He is one of the largest favorites on the board, he is playing at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals’ Park, and he draws a favorable matchup. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 23rd in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Roark isn’t my favorite pitcher in the slate, but he’s in a good spot at home and he’s affordable across the industry.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are an offense that rarely makes the final cut when I’m making lineups, unless they are playing in Coors Field or have a tremendous matchup. They are an easy fade tonight against Tanner Roark, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.340	0.310	0.115	26.2%	10.9%	19.2%	52.4%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
2	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.308	0.300	0.144	33.3%	10.1%	31.9%	50.0%	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.344	0.308	0.155	28.4%	9.2%	20.4%	43.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.294	0.321	0.154	29.5%	6.7%	16.5%	44.5%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.327	0.330	0.192	37.9%	10.6%	26.4%	39.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,600
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.321	0.319	0.207	36.9%	5.3%	23.3%	41.8%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.305	0.271	0.178	27.4%	4.9%	21.7%	40.4%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
8	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.307	0.323	0.175	33.6%	6.9%	28.2%	47.1%	C	$2,900	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.000	0.001	0.000	100.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	P	$5,700	P	$5,100	P	$10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Predicting what will happen in the first few major league starts of a pitcher is always difficult, but we have to like the Nationals tonight at home against Nick Pivetta. Washington is ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and have two of the best left-handed hitters in baseball in Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. Trea Turner is underpriced on FanDuel ($3,700) and Ryan Zimmerman has been an excellent tournament play all season. Anthony Rendon, aka Tony Two Bags, can also be added to make it a full Nationals’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.390	0.334	0.239	33.1%	4.9%	19.6%	43.2%	SS	$3,700	SS	$5,200	IF/OF	$10,000
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.312	0.318	0.147	32.6%	11.0%	24.7%	41.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.380	0.395	0.234	35.3%	19.2%	15.9%	39.7%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.325	0.333	0.196	35.8%	5.2%	23.4%	45.4%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,600
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.417	0.401	0.252	39.1%	6.8%	9.2%	35.0%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,200	2B	$10,000
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.338	0.342	0.179	34.7%	8.8%	18.8%	37.6%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,600
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.260	0.268	0.120	32.0%	5.8%	31.6%	44.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.314	0.322	0.174	33.0%	7.2%	18.0%	38.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.178	0.180	0.016	7.7%	6.7%	24.0%	56.1%	P	$8,600	P	$8,800	P	$17,100

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Toronto
			Christian Bergman							Joe Biagini
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-125							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.443	0.388	44.8%	9.3%	23.3%	41.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.262	26.9%	6.8%	25.3%	61.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.382	0.342	38.4%	3.3%	15.4%	39.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.279	0.277	20.5%	5.0%	19.2%	49.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Christian Bergman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	2016	1	4.03	8.39	18.5%	5.0%	37.1%	42.9%	14.3%
	2017	0	4.18	2.45	13.3%	6.7%	66.7%	18.2%	27.3%

Bergman is making his first start with the Mariners, after coming up through the ranks with the Rockies. In 15 career major league starts, he owns a 5.71 ERA with a strikeout rate of 13.8%. Obviously, some of those starts came in Coors Field, but even if we look at his road numbers, they haven’t been great. He’s had a strikeout rate under 20% in every full season he’s pitched in the minors and it’s not like he’s suddenly going to start striking more batters out at this level.

Quick Breakdown: Bergman doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration, even against the short-handed Blue Jays.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Joe Biagini
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30
	2016	0	3.45	3.06	21.0%	6.4%	52.2%	23.0%	17.7%
	2017	1	2.42	2.78	24.4%	3.5%	61.0%	23.3%	21.7%

Biagini is making his second career major league start tonight. He was pitching at the Double-A level before getting called up, so this is actually only his second start above the Double-A level in his career. He has a good fastball (95+ MPH), but only had a strikeout rate of 16% in his last full season in the minors. The Blue Jays are currently small favorites in a game with an over/under of 8.5 runs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that line moved throughout the day. I see this game as a pick ‘em that could end up turning into a shootout.

Quick Breakdown: We have 29 other pitchers to target on the slate. Let’s take a wait and see approach with Biagini.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

We don’t know a ton about Joe Biagini, but in the minor leagues, he had a high ground ball rate and good command. He also had a low strikeout rate with a mediocre xFIP. The Mariners hit right-handed pitching very well and see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. The one through five stack is enticing here, especially given the expected low ownership. Kyle Seager is a strong one-off target. He has a .405 xwOBA against right-handed pitching and has a high fly-ball rate to counteract Biagini’s high ground ball rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.388	0.342	0.185	29.1%	5.0%	12.7%	52.4%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
2	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.346	0.333	0.134	31.7%	14.0%	26.0%	33.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.403	0.400	0.276	38.6%	8.4%	12.4%	43.8%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,600	2B	$8,800
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.378	0.384	0.240	35.2%	8.8%	24.1%	43.0%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,600	RF	$9,000
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.377	0.405	0.214	39.6%	12.5%	14.3%	34.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.318	0.320	0.152	30.4%	7.2%	24.2%	42.9%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
7	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.327	0.303	0.070	14.3%	9.9%	15.8%	46.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,400
8	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.290	0.327	0.071	27.9%	10.1%	16.2%	45.3%	C	$2,200	C	$2,600	C	$5,200
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.291	0.270	0.093	16.2%	8.0%	12.6%	52.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300

Elite Plays – Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays are missing four of their best hitters right now. Their lineup is arguably the least talented of any team on the schedule tonight, but I’m willing to overlook all of that in a matchup against Christian Bergman at home. Bregman is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .414 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career. Do I feel great about a Blue Jays’ stack tonight? Not in the slightest, but I will certainly have one in a tournament lineup or two. For cash games, Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, and Steve Pearce all offer good value at their respective price points.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.300	0.289	0.115	26.4%	5.4%	15.3%	48.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.300	0.263	0.115	24.1%	7.3%	22.1%	56.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,600
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.344	0.359	0.200	38.5%	17.3%	23.1%	36.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.316	0.336	0.186	41.5%	10.9%	34.7%	29.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.329	0.340	0.163	29.8%	9.1%	17.9%	45.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	1B	$6,800
6	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.258	0.273	0.154	30.1%	7.0%	21.8%	49.0%	2B	$2,500	SS	$3,000	2B	$6,000
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.326	0.308	0.160	30.5%	5.4%	19.7%	46.3%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
8	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.272	0.286	0.133	29.7%	10.4%	25.8%	45.2%	OF	$2,000	3B	$2,400	IF/OF	$4,800
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.217	0.224	0.086	27.9%	4.5%	25.0%	53.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	C	$4,800

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Cleveland
			Ervin Santana							Josh Tomlin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-135							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.298	27.9%	7.2%	18.6%	47.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.288	0.317	37.2%	2.5%	15.1%	48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	0.309	29.5%	7.7%	21.7%	37.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.346	32.2%	2.9%	16.9%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ervin Santana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30
	2016	30	4.29	3.38	19.9%	7.1%	42.6%	29.3%	19.0%
	2017	7	4.32	1.72	21.3%	9.2%	41.5%	25.8%	25.8%

Santana continues to mow down any opponent that the MLB schedule puts in front of him. When his numbers were down, I was on record many times over the last two seasons saying that Santana wasn’t as bad as everyone thought. Now, I’m going on record saying that he isn’t as good as his 1.72 ERA suggests. Even if you are Clayton Kershaw, a .132 BABIP with a left on-base percentage of 98% is not sustainable. I want no part of Santana tonight against an Indians’ offense that is patient at the plate and hits right-handed pitching very well.

Quick Breakdown: Santana’s price is inflated thanks to his low ERA. He’s an easy fade against the Indians.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	6	3.79	7.12	15.2%	2.3%	50.5%	37.0%	8.3%

Tomlin has struggled out of the gates this season, allowing a 7.12 ERA with a hard contact rate of 37%. He doesn’t have great velocity and has some serious reverse-splits, which doesn’t bode well for his matchup against an Indians’ lineup that features Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. Tomlin is a favorite, but there are better pitching options in this slate, both for cash games and for tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: The Twins are a better offense than most people realize. Tomlin doesn’t have enough strikeout potential to warrant consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw a favorable matchup against Josh Tomlin tonight. While the ballpark isn’t the most hitter-friendly of parks, Tomlin has allowed a .346 xwOBA with a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He has also allowed a 37% hard contact rate to lefties. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano both homered yesterday and are both elite one-off targets. If you want to roll out a full Twins’ stack, Max Kepler, Joe Mauer, and Kennys Vargas are also viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.356	0.325	0.251	33.3%	9.0%	19.7%	39.2%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,200
2	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.342	0.321	0.207	34.7%	10.8%	18.8%	44.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.352	0.349	0.241	42.7%	11.9%	36.5%	33.2%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,800
4	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.339	0.392	0.137	33.4%	14.1%	14.1%	47.4%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.327	0.299	0.265	34.9%	11.9%	33.1%	32.5%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
6	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.307	0.300	0.104	23.4%	8.2%	13.1%	34.0%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
7	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.327	0.324	0.198	37.0%	12.7%	32.5%	42.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.319	0.287	0.185	33.1%	3.5%	23.5%	44.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.291	0.234	0.183	23.3%	6.2%	36.0%	35.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians are favored tonight at home and should get overlooked by most DFS players in this 15 game slate. While I don’t expect Ervin Santana to maintain his torrid pace for much longer, he’s not a pitcher that I go out of my way to target hitters against. In the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. He also has a good track record against Cleveland, holding their current lineup to a .320 wOBA in 210 career plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.380	0.406	0.268	38.3%	15.2%	16.2%	36.3%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.356	0.353	0.171	27.7%	9.2%	12.1%	47.5%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,800
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.325	0.350	0.167	42.5%	6.7%	15.4%	46.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.369	0.385	0.259	38.2%	11.1%	21.2%	37.3%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,400
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.362	0.328	0.165	25.4%	8.1%	10.1%	38.5%	3B	$3,600	2B/3B	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,800
6	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.340	0.345	0.186	38.6%	9.5%	20.2%	37.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.337	0.311	0.168	28.4%	5.2%	16.7%	34.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,800
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.207	0.260	0.140	30.2%	4.1%	24.8%	39.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
9	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.295	0.277	0.121	31.8%	6.9%	23.9%	46.9%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Boston
			Alex Cobb							Rick Porcello
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-170							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.432	0.380	33.0%	8.3%	12.5%	44.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.296	33.4%	3.8%	21.5%	39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.310	34.6%	4.2%	16.4%	52.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.320	30.1%	3.8%	21.9%	45.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,700
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	7	4.45	3.56	14.4%	5.5%	47.5%	36.4%	12.6%

Cobb is coming off of his best start of the season, pitching eight innings against the Blue Jays at home. While his ground ball rate and walk rate are promising, he’s not generating enough strikeouts right now. Since coming back from Tommy John surgery, he has a strikeout rate under 15%. He should be avoided in all formats tonight against the Red Sox in Fenway Park.

Quick Breakdown: Until we see a bump in his strikeout rate or in his swinging strike rate, Cobb can be avoided in DFS.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$18,800
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	2016	33	3.78	3.15	21.2%	3.6%	43.1%	30.0%	16.9%
	2017	7	3.54	3.95	23.7%	4.7%	39.0%	40.4%	17.7%

Porcello is one of the more intriguing pitching options in this slate if you are looking to fade Clayton Kershaw in Coors Field. His numbers are eerily similar to where they were a year ago, posting a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.7% in his first seven starts. He has allowed a lot more hard contact this season, but that’s never been a problem for him in the past. He draws a favorable matchup against the Rays, who are ranked dead last in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Outside of Brad Miller and Logan Morrison, this Rays’ lineup has really struggled against Porcello in the past.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello is a viable play in all formats. The ballpark isn’t great, but the strikeout upside and the win equity more than make up for it.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a lot of power against right-handed pitching, with five of their projected starters boasting an ISO over .200. They also see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Fenway Park. Even though I will have a number of Porcello lineups tonight, I will make sure to throw in a Rays’ hedge stack just in case. The two batters in this lineup with success against Porcello are Brad Miller and Logan Morrison. Miller is 7-for-23 with four home runs and Morrison is 10-for-24 with four extra base hits against Porcello.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.341	0.312	0.257	31.3%	6.7%	22.3%	34.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.333	0.320	0.231	35.8%	10.2%	25.1%	45.8%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,000	SS	$7,600
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.352	0.357	0.247	37.1%	6.1%	20.9%	33.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,600
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.334	0.362	0.220	37.2%	9.7%	22.2%	42.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.326	0.300	0.170	30.1%	8.2%	31.4%	41.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.311	0.319	0.177	36.0%	11.0%	28.3%	36.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.309	0.304	0.218	44.0%	3.8%	31.7%	38.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.306	0.289	0.137	29.8%	9.9%	18.3%	45.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.245	0.270	0.133	31.1%	6.8%	32.3%	33.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox get to face a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a 36% hard contact rate in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Boston hasn’t hit many home runs as a team this season, which has kept the appeal of a stack low, but it’s hard not to like the spot they are in tonight. In the last two seasons, Cobb has allowed a .380 xwOBA to lefties and a 33%+ hard contact rate to batters from both sides of the plate. The one through six stack is firmly in play here and you can even throw Jackie Bradley Jr. in there, as he has the highest ISO against right-handed pitching of any player on the Red Sox.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.394	0.339	0.215	34.1%	7.7%	10.5%	41.4%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,200
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.356	0.333	0.133	33.9%	8.0%	9.5%	50.2%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,400
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.342	0.296	0.137	29.4%	6.9%	16.4%	48.2%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
4	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.395	0.349	0.214	37.5%	8.6%	13.8%	35.2%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.345	0.350	0.186	37.8%	9.5%	19.3%	49.3%	1B	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,700	IF/OF	$9,300
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.308	0.354	0.186	38.5%	8.3%	22.7%	39.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
7	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.357	0.355	0.241	38.1%	10.3%	22.0%	46.6%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
8	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.296	0.235	0.071	33.3%	10.9%	32.8%	65.7%	3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$6,000
9	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.310	0.274	0.153	35.3%	5.9%	25.9%	45.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,300	C	$6,400

MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 12th

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Stackability Rating System:

Houston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

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