MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 26th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Colorado at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Colorado Baltimore
coloradomlb Chad Bettis baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -200 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.323 8 17.3% 9.7% SP vs. Left 0.312 11 18.9% 10.4%
SP vs. Right 0.352 17 19.7% 4.8% SP vs. Right 0.324 23 17.3% 7.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Bettis
chad-bettis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 25.3 FPPG: 11.5
Pitcher Rating: 48.4 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.2 4.38 4.94 16.8% 8.0% 12.1% 52.0% 21.4% 32.4%
2016 20 94.0 4.15 5.31 17.5% 6.1% 9.1% 51.3% 25.5% 32.0%
2015 20 94.1 4.08 4.23 19.5% 8.4% 9.8% 49.3% 28.5% 31.8%

Bettis has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS this season. In 20 starts, he has a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. It’s weird to say that a pitcher gets a ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards, but that’s the case when you are coming over from Coors Field. Bettis draws one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule tonight, as the Orioles are ranked third in team wOBA (.343) and second in team ISO (.195) against right-handed pitching. With a full slate tonight, we don’t need to spend too much time on Bettis.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,200
FPPG: 35.2 FPPG: 17.9
Pitcher Rating: 59.1 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 101.2 5.70 3.35 14.0% 10.8% 7.3% 30.4% 42.6% 28.2%
2016 21 99.0 4.48 3.18 20.9% 9.3% 9.1% 40.2% 38.5% 30.5%
2015 31 94.9 4.69 4.99 16.2% 8.6% 7.1% 43.5% 35.4% 26.9%

Tillman is the preferred pitcher to target in this game, but I see him as more of a deep GPP play. The large gap between his SIERA and ERA suggest some regression moving forward. His left on-base percentage is over 80, which is a career high and one that may be unsustainable the rest of the season. Tillman does draw an interesting matchup against the Rockies, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA (.294) on the road this season. I don’t love the price tag, but Tillman is playable in GPPs tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

If you look at the numbers as a whole, you will see that the Rockies have been a top five offense against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, most of their production has come at home in Coors Field. They are a different offense on the road, so it’s hard to put much stock into the fact that they have the fifth highest team wOBA against righties. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Chris Tillman, who has allowed a .312 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.360 0.179 0.226 OF $4,000 OF $3,700
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.339 0.113 0.333 2B $3,900 2B $3,300
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.389 0.311 0.410 3B $4,300 3B $4,100
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.411 0.289 0.382 OF $3,700 OF $4,300
5 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.372 0.304 0.573 SS $3,600 SS $5,000
6 David Dahl LEFT 0.220 0.000 0.220 OF $2,100
7 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.331 0.173 0.315 1B $3,400 1B $3,000
8 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.308 0.129 0.315 2B $2,800 1B/OF $2,600
9 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.347 0.173 0.256 C $2,800 C $2,700
Team Averages 0.342 0.186 0.337

Elite Plays – Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the highest implied team totals on the board tonight. They are projected to score 5.33 runs, which is right behind the totals of the Red Sox and Blue Jays. They draw a favorable matchup against Chad Bettis and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. In the last two seasons, Bettis has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .352 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.203 0.210 OF $3,500 OF $3,700
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.371 0.240 0.324 2B $4,200 2B $4,100
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.384 0.237 0.314 3B $3,900 3B/SS $3,900
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.385 0.311 0.174 1B $3,900 1B $3,600
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.351 0.214 0.282 OF $3,200 OF $4,100
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.325 0.166 0.100 C $3,000 C $3,300
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.340 0.244 0.283 3B $2,700 1B $3,500
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.273 0.112 0.344 SS $2,500 SS $3,100
9 Julio Borbon LEFT 0.146 0.000 0.195 OF $2,200 OF $2,400
Team Averages 0.324 0.192 0.247

Elite Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Seattle Pittsburgh
seattlemlb Felix Hernandez pittsburghmlb Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -110 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.306 14 18.4% 9.0% SP vs. Left 0.284 6 24.7% 9.3%
SP vs. Right 0.292 16 25.6% 6.2% SP vs. Right 0.308 24 24.9% 10.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez
felix-hernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $8,600
FPPG: 31.5 FPPG: 16.1
Pitcher Rating: 59.9 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 94.0 5.59 6.75 6.3% 6.3% 7.5% 50.0% 28.6% 28.6%
2016 11 99.7 4.49 3.23 18.5% 9.4% 8.4% 52.9% 27.5% 25.7%
2015 31 98.1 3.38 3.53 23.1% 7.0% 10.7% 56.2% 26.9% 25.4%

King Felix was knocked around in his first start back from injury, giving up five runs and ten hits against the White Sox. He did throw 94 pitches though, so he shouldn’t be on much of a pitch count tonight against the Pirates. While I like the matchup against this struggling offense, Hernandez carries more name value than anything else these days. A 4.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 20% puts him as a slightly below-average pitcher on the season. I’m going to wait until his price comes down before targeting him in DFS.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 25.3 FPPG: 12.2
Pitcher Rating: 74.2 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 94.8 4.29 4.78 22.5% 11.3% 11.4% 54.3% 27.2% 29.4%
2016 19 96.7 4.66 4.96 22.1% 12.9% 10.8% 52.0% 30.1% 34.1%
2015 31 96.2 3.38 3.38 26.5% 9.1% 14.3% 51.2% 26.3% 24.3%

Liriano had been awful all season, but came out throwing fire in his last start. He struck out 13 batters against the Brewers at home. Hopefully, that’s a sign of things to come, as I’ve always been a fan of his. The one thing to note in his last start is that his velocity was up. His fastball averaged 94 MPH, which was the second highest of any start this season. Liriano is certainly worth a look tonight against the Mariners, who are unable to utilize the DH in this National League ballpark. They are a mediocre offense against southpaws, ranking 19th in team wOBA (.314) and 15th in team strikeout rate (21.2%).

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a negative ballpark shift, they are unable to use the DH in the National League, and they face a boom or bust type of matchup against Francisco Liriano. The right-handed bats of Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee are still worth a look (especially in tournaments), but there isn’t a lot that stands out from a cash game perspective. If Liriano is in fact turning the corner, we don’t want to be loading up hitters against him.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.282 0.028 0.351 OF $2,300 OF $2,700
2 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.311 0.138 0.268 2B $3,400 2B $3,700
3 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.448 0.337 0.420 OF $4,100 OF $4,900
4 Dae-ho Lee RIGHT 0.332 0.211 0.185 1B $2,200 1B $3,000
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.322 0.192 0.294 3B $2,900 3B $3,600
6 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.248 0.095 0.391 C $2,200 C $2,600
7 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.278 0.121 0.388 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
8 Luis Sardinas SWITCH 0.249 0.163 0.000 SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,300
9 Felix Hernandez RIGHT 0.000 0.000 P $9,900 P $8,600
Team Averages 0.274 0.143 0.287

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz, Dae-Ho Lee

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates’ offense has let the DFS community down in some very favorable spots recently. They have been ice cold at the plate, as you can see by the “wOBA L14” column below. They come into tonight’s game with a below-average run projection, as they square off against Felix Hernandez. Outside of Francisco Liriano and potentially Nelson Cruz, this game lacks some serious fantasy appeal.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.339 0.143 0.208 1B $2,300 1B $2,700
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.340 0.162 0.273 OF $3,500 OF $4,600
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.354 0.186 0.239 OF $3,000 OF $3,600
4 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.354 0.155 0.384 OF $3,700 OF $5,000
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.329 0.148 0.200 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,100
6 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.291 0.105 0.246 2B $2,400 2B $2,600
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.320 0.079 0.246 C $2,700 C $2,800
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.277 0.079 0.346 SS $2,500 SS $2,900
9 Francisco Liriano LEFT 0.252 0.076 0.146 P $8,300 P $8,300
Team Averages 0.317 0.126 0.254

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

San Diego Toronto
sandiegomlb Andrew Cashner torontomlb Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -230 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.367 19 19.7% 11.3% SP vs. Left 0.322 9 17.3% 7.5%
SP vs. Right 0.313 11 20.3% 5.3% SP vs. Right 0.300 7 17.3% 4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,100
FPPG: 22.3 FPPG: 10.6
Pitcher Rating: 52.5 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 81.8 3.24 4.87 28.4% 5.7% 11.3% 38.2% 41.8% 48.2%
2016 15 86.1 4.50 4.79 18.8% 8.3% 7.1% 47.3% 34.1% 31.0%
2015 31 100.3 4.00 4.34 20.5% 8.2% 8.2% 47.4% 29.9% 30.2%

Cashner’s ERA may not show it, but he has actually pitched pretty well since coming back from injury. In four starts, he has a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.4%. Cashner used to be a pitcher that we could use when he was pitching at home in favorable matchups, and if he continues to trend upward, that will be the case once against. What we don’t want to do is target him on the road against potent offenses like the Blue Jays. His hard hit contact rate of 31% will look awfully enticing to these Toronto bats.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,400
FPPG: 27.7 FPPG: 13.2
Pitcher Rating: 78.3 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 93.2 3.13 3.90 20.3% 5.3% 9.9% 67.0% 18.6% 25.3%
2016 20 96.1 3.77 4.90 17.3% 6.3% 8.5% 60.6% 20.0% 31.6%
2015 4 93.3 3.28 1.67 17.5% 5.8% 7.2% 64.1% 17.9% 21.8%

Stroman hasn’t been great this season, but he is trending in the right direction. In his last five starts, he has a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.3%. He checks in as one of the heaviest favorites on the board tonight, as he squares off against the Padres at home. The Rogers Centre is known as a hitter’s park, but Stroman’s elite ground ball rate negates a lot of the ballpark effects. I would typically label him as more of an SP2, but with the lack of aces on the mound tonight, Stroman is worth a look on single pitcher sites as well. He grades out as the second best pitching option in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres’ offense has had a nice month, but a lot of that production has come against left-handed pitchers. On the season, they are still ranked 29th in team wOBA against righties. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre, but they draw a difficult matchup against Marcus Stroman. He induces an elite ground ball rate, which helps limit the hard contact against him. Alex Dickerson and Ryan Schimpf are interesting GPP plays, but the rest of the Padres can be avoided in this matchup.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.312 0.113 0.276 OF $2,300 OF $3,500
2 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.331 0.203 0.242 1B $3,900 1B $4,000
3 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.308 0.178 0.477 OF $2,900 OF $3,800
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.341 0.178 0.337 3B $3,400 2B/3B $3,500
5 Alex Dickerson LEFT 0.371 0.239 0.341 OF $2,500 OF $2,900
6 Ryan Schimpf LEFT 0.406 0.390 0.538 2B $2,200 2B $3,500
7 Brett Wallace LEFT 0.335 0.196 0.251 3B $2,100 1B/3B $2,800
8 Alexei Ramirez RIGHT 0.262 0.101 0.306 SS $2,400 SS $2,500
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.281 0.160 0.134 C $2,500 C $2,500
Team Averages 0.327 0.195 0.322

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Dickerson, Ryan Schimpf

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays were a disappointment yet again, scoring only four runs last night against Colin Rea and the Padres. The thing about Toronto is that you have to keep plugging them into your lineup, because sooner or later they are going to bust out for ten or more runs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Andrew Cashner, who has allowed a .367 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .313 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.383 0.278 0.392 OF $5,000 OF $4,100
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.398 0.268 0.353 3B $4,800 3B $5,200
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.387 0.282 0.364 1B $4,900 1B $4,500
4 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.355 0.211 0.356 OF $3,900 OF $4,300
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.175 0.330 SS $2,800 SS $4,000
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.307 0.171 0.278 C $3,100 C $3,400
7 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.330 0.223 0.416 1B $2,800 1B $4,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.304 0.130 0.241 OF $2,500 OF $2,800
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.373 0.190 0.418 2B $2,700 2B $3,800
Team Averages 0.351 0.214 0.350

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit Boston
detroitmlb Mike Pelfrey bostonmlb Steven Wright
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -190 11.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.377 12 11.0% 10.6% SP vs. Left 0.274 7 18.4% 8.8%
SP vs. Right 0.332 12 11.3% 4.2% SP vs. Right 0.296 12 19.5% 8.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Pelfrey
mike-pelfrey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 16.3 FPPG: 5.9
Pitcher Rating: 21.7 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 95.8 5.26 3.72 6.9% 9.2% 4.0% 59.8% 19.6% 28.4%
2016 19 95.4 5.34 4.78 9.8% 9.0% 6.6% 53.3% 25.6% 30.4%
2015 30 88.8 4.59 4.26 12.0% 6.3% 5.6% 50.8% 26.4% 26.1%

Pelfrey has a strikeout rate under 10% on the season. It doesn’t really matter that he induces a 53% ground ball rate, because he’s not striking anyone out. On average, more ground balls go for hits than fly balls and when teams put the ball into play on nearly every at-bat, good things are going to happen. Obviously, anything can happen in baseball, but I have a hard time seeing Pelfrey giving up less than five runs tonight against the Red Sox.

Steven Wright
steven-wright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $10,700
FPPG: 38.7 FPPG: 20.4
Pitcher Rating: 62.4 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 97.2 4.06 4.85 20.8% 6.2% 10.1% 46.2% 37.4% 26.1%
2016 19 106.1 4.36 2.67 20.3% 8.5% 11.0% 46.4% 33.8% 26.6%
2015 9 130.9 4.60 4.09 16.8% 8.7% 9.3% 43.2% 43.2% 33.9%

Wright hasn’t been pitching as deep into games recently, averaging only 97.2 pitches in his last five starts. One of his most endearing DFS qualities was his ability to throw 120 pitches and last deep into games. If that’s no longer the case, we need to re-think his fantasy appeal, especially at this price point. The Tigers are a very capable offense and we know that Fenway Park is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Pitching options are limited tonight, but I will not be targeting Wright in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have an above-average offense against right-handed pitching this season, ranking ninth in team wOBA and 12th in team ISO. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Fenway Park tonight, as they take on the knuckleballer, Steven Wright. In terms of splits, Wright has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season. However, the Tigers have the fourth highest team total on the board.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.341 0.157 0.396 2B $4,100 2B $4,400
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.307 0.083 0.285 OF $3,700 OF $3,400
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.407 0.215 0.409 1B $3,300 1B $4,000
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.297 0.149 0.153 C $3,200 1B $3,300
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.322 0.180 0.304 3B $4,000 3B $3,600
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.336 0.200 0.325 OF $2,900 OF $2,900
7 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.315 0.169 0.371 OF $2,200 OF $2,200
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.324 0.221 0.291 C $2,100 C $3,100
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.056 0.359 SS $2,400 SS $2,200
Team Averages 0.326 0.159 0.321

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also have the highest run projection on the board tonight. They arguably have the best matchup as well, as they take on the struggling Mike Pelfrey. In addition to one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball, Pelfrey has allowed a .377 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Stack the Red Sox in all league formats tonight, but remember to try to work in a few unique combinations for tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.362 0.207 0.367 OF $4,200 OF $5,600
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.352 0.143 0.403 2B $3,600 2B $4,900
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.337 0.116 0.361 SS $3,400 SS $5,000
4 David Ortiz LEFT 0.434 0.345 0.377 1B $4,900 1B $5,700
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.319 0.159 0.383 1B $3,400 1B $4,800
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.381 0.278 0.404 OF $3,000 OF $4,900
7 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.340 0.195 0.329 3B $3,500 1B/3B $4,900
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.304 0.093 0.377 C $2,800 C $3,400
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.320 0.120 0.363 OF $2,700 OF $4,000
Team Averages 0.350 0.184 0.374

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Sandy Leon, Brock Holt

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff miamimlb Tom Koehler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -150 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.344 12 17.1% 7.2% SP vs. Left 0.338 21 18.2% 10.8%
SP vs. Right 0.271 8 25.9% 4.9% SP vs. Right 0.313 11 16.4% 9.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 29.1 FPPG: 14.9
Pitcher Rating: 63.7 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 99.0 4.25 5.14 19.4% 6.5% 9.3% 45.0% 34.9% 34.2%
2016 20 96.4 4.09 3.98 20.3% 5.9% 9.7% 43.6% 35.1% 30.7%
2015 8 92.4 3.56 2.65 24.1% 6.4% 10.4% 37.9% 40.0% 36.2%

Eickhoff was terrific at the start of the season, but his numbers have tailed off since. In his last six starts, he has a 4.25 SIERA with a mediocre strikeout rate of 19.4%. He is a young pitcher that we typically like to target at home. Tonight he takes on the Marlins in Miami. While this isn’t a bad matchup by any means, Eickhoff is a sizable underdog on the road. He is a deep GPP play at best tonight.

Tom Koehler
tom-koehler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 25.1 FPPG: 11.6
Pitcher Rating: 61.9 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 90.3 5.11 5.70 13.9% 6.6% 8.9% 32.7% 37.5% 31.8%
2016 20 93.8 5.09 4.42 17.6% 11.1% 9.0% 40.9% 34.8% 26.2%
2015 31 96.0 4.67 4.08 17.1% 9.6% 7.3% 46.0% 35.6% 34.5%

Even though he is a favorite, I plan to have zero shares of Koehler tonight. He has been awful this season, posting a 5.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.6% and a walk rate of 11.1%. The Phillies are still one of the worst offenses in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that we should automatically target every pitcher that faces them. The upside hasn’t been there for Koehler, especially in his last six starts (13.9% strikeout rate). I’ll side with the Phillies’ offense in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies come into tonight’s game with the third lowest implied team total on the board. That’s not very promising, but I do like their matchup quite a bit. Over the last two seasons, Tom Koehler has allowed a .338 wOBA and 21 home runs to left-handed hitters. With this being a full slate, I won’t be looking to target any Phillies’ bats in cash games, but I do like a few of their bats as one-offs in GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.298 0.087 0.286 2B $3,000 2B $3,400
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.352 0.149 0.284 OF $4,100 OF $4,600
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.342 0.205 0.209 3B $3,100 3B $3,500
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.317 0.242 0.430 1B $2,700 1B $3,700
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.293 0.143 0.285 C $3,000 C $3,300
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.289 0.125 0.243 SS $2,600 SS $3,300
7 Cody Asche LEFT 0.301 0.166 0.165 OF $2,500 OF $3,000
8 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.276 0.144 0.156 OF $2,500 OF $2,800
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.194 0.050 0.530 P $7,900 P $6,800
Team Averages 0.296 0.146 0.288

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins have the third lowest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have the sixth lowest strikeout rate. So, while they aren’t hitting for power, they are at least putting the ball in play. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Jerad Eickhoff, who has allowed a .344 wOBA and 12 home runs to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He has been tough on righties though, holding them to a .271 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.315 0.122 0.241 C $3,000 C $4,000
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.303 0.089 0.316 3B $3,300 3B $3,600
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.376 0.165 0.426 OF $3,900 OF $5,000
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.352 0.255 0.350 OF $3,000 OF $4,300
5 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.306 0.140 0.227 OF $3,000 OF $4,000
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.363 0.178 0.147 2B $2,400 2B $2,900
7 Chris Johnson RIGHT 0.251 0.096 0.320 1B $2,100 1B $2,300
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.274 0.086 0.312 SS $2,100 SS $2,900
9 Tom Koehler RIGHT 0.116 0.015 0.220 P $6,900 P $6,400
Team Averages 0.295 0.127 0.284

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (FD), Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious