MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 26th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Colorado at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET
| Colorado | Baltimore |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| BAL -200 | 9.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.323 | 8 | 17.3% | 9.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.312 | 11 | 18.9% | 10.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.352 | 17 | 19.7% | 4.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.324 | 23 | 17.3% | 7.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chad Bettis |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $7,200 |
| FPPG: | 25.3 | FPPG: | 11.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 48.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 21 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 94.2 | 4.38 | 4.94 | 16.8% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 52.0% | 21.4% | 32.4% |
| 2016 | 20 | 94.0 | 4.15 | 5.31 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 51.3% | 25.5% | 32.0% |
| 2015 | 20 | 94.1 | 4.08 | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 49.3% | 28.5% | 31.8% |
Bettis has been an easy pitcher to avoid in DFS this season. In 20 starts, he has a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. It’s weird to say that a pitcher gets a ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards, but that’s the case when you are coming over from Coors Field. Bettis draws one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule tonight, as the Orioles are ranked third in team wOBA (.343) and second in team ISO (.195) against right-handed pitching. With a full slate tonight, we don’t need to spend too much time on Bettis.
| Chris Tillman |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $8,200 |
| FPPG: | 35.2 | FPPG: | 17.9 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 14 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 101.2 | 5.70 | 3.35 | 14.0% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 30.4% | 42.6% | 28.2% |
| 2016 | 21 | 99.0 | 4.48 | 3.18 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 40.2% | 38.5% | 30.5% |
| 2015 | 31 | 94.9 | 4.69 | 4.99 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 43.5% | 35.4% | 26.9% |
Tillman is the preferred pitcher to target in this game, but I see him as more of a deep GPP play. The large gap between his SIERA and ERA suggest some regression moving forward. His left on-base percentage is over 80, which is a career high and one that may be unsustainable the rest of the season. Tillman does draw an interesting matchup against the Rockies, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA (.294) on the road this season. I don’t love the price tag, but Tillman is playable in GPPs tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
If you look at the numbers as a whole, you will see that the Rockies have been a top five offense against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, most of their production has come at home in Coors Field. They are a different offense on the road, so it’s hard to put much stock into the fact that they have the fifth highest team wOBA against righties. They draw a decent matchup tonight against , who has allowed a .312 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.185 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.16 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.17 (17 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.179 | 0.226 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $3,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.113 | 0.333 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,300 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.311 | 0.410 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $4,100 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.289 | 0.382 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.304 | 0.573 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $5,000 |
| 6 | David Dahl | LEFT | 0.220 | 0.000 | 0.220 | | | OF | $2,100 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.173 | 0.315 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $3,000 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.308 | 0.129 | 0.315 | 2B | $2,800 | 1B/OF | $2,600 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.173 | 0.256 | C | $2,800 | C | $2,700 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.342 | 0.186 | 0.337 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Baltimore
The Orioles have one of the highest implied team totals on the board tonight. They are projected to score 5.33 runs, which is right behind the totals of the Red Sox and Blue Jays. They draw a favorable matchup against and they get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. In the last two seasons, Bettis has allowed a .323 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .352 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
- Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.343 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.195 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.86 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.33 (3 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.203 | 0.210 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.240 | 0.324 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $4,100 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.237 | 0.314 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B/SS | $3,900 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.385 | 0.311 | 0.174 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $3,600 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.214 | 0.282 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,100 |
| 6 | | SWITCH | 0.325 | 0.166 | 0.100 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,300 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.244 | 0.283 | 3B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,500 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.112 | 0.344 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,100 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.146 | 0.000 | 0.195 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,400 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.324 | 0.192 | 0.247 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Seattle at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
| Seattle | Pittsburgh |
| | | |
| RIGHT | LEFT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| PIT -110 | 8.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.306 | 14 | 18.4% | 9.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 6 | 24.7% | 9.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.292 | 16 | 25.6% | 6.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.308 | 24 | 24.9% | 10.9% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Felix Hernandez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $8,600 |
| FPPG: | 31.5 | FPPG: | 16.1 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 13 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 1 | 94.0 | 5.59 | 6.75 | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 50.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| 2016 | 11 | 99.7 | 4.49 | 3.23 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 52.9% | 27.5% | 25.7% |
| 2015 | 31 | 98.1 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 23.1% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 56.2% | 26.9% | 25.4% |
King Felix was knocked around in his first start back from injury, giving up five runs and ten hits against the White Sox. He did throw 94 pitches though, so he shouldn’t be on much of a pitch count tonight against the Pirates. While I like the matchup against this struggling offense, Hernandez carries more name value than anything else these days. A 4.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate under 20% puts him as a slightly below-average pitcher on the season. I’m going to wait until his price comes down before targeting him in DFS.
| Francisco Liriano |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,300 |
| FPPG: | 25.3 | FPPG: | 12.2 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 74.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 5 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 94.8 | 4.29 | 4.78 | 22.5% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 54.3% | 27.2% | 29.4% |
| 2016 | 19 | 96.7 | 4.66 | 4.96 | 22.1% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 52.0% | 30.1% | 34.1% |
| 2015 | 31 | 96.2 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 51.2% | 26.3% | 24.3% |
Liriano had been awful all season, but came out throwing fire in his last start. He struck out 13 batters against the Brewers at home. Hopefully, that’s a sign of things to come, as I’ve always been a fan of his. The one thing to note in his last start is that his velocity was up. His fastball averaged 94 MPH, which was the second highest of any start this season. Liriano is certainly worth a look tonight against the Mariners, who are unable to utilize the DH in this National League ballpark. They are a mediocre offense against southpaws, ranking 19th in team wOBA (.314) and 15th in team strikeout rate (21.2%).
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
The Mariners see a negative ballpark shift, they are unable to use the DH in the National League, and they face a boom or bust type of matchup against . The right-handed bats of and Dae-Ho Lee are still worth a look (especially in tournaments), but there isn’t a lot that stands out from a cash game perspective. If Liriano is in fact turning the corner, we don’t want to be loading up hitters against him.
- Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.314 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.171 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.2% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.85 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.77 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.94 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.028 | 0.351 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,700 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.138 | 0.268 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,700 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.448 | 0.337 | 0.420 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,900 |
| 4 | Dae-ho Lee | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.211 | 0.185 | 1B | $2,200 | 1B | $3,000 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.192 | 0.294 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,600 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.248 | 0.095 | 0.391 | C | $2,200 | C | $2,600 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.121 | 0.388 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.249 | 0.163 | 0.000 | SS | $2,000 | 3B/SS | $2,300 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | | P | $9,900 | P | $8,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.274 | 0.143 | 0.287 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , Dae-Ho Lee
Stackability – ORANGE
Pittsburgh
The Pirates’ offense has let the DFS community down in some very favorable spots recently. They have been ice cold at the plate, as you can see by the “wOBA L14” column below. They come into tonight’s game with a below-average run projection, as they square off against . Outside of and potentially , this game lacks some serious fantasy appeal.
- Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.93 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.06 (19 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.143 | 0.208 | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $2,700 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.162 | 0.273 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,600 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.186 | 0.239 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.155 | 0.384 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,000 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.148 | 0.200 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,100 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.105 | 0.246 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,600 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.079 | 0.246 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,800 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.079 | 0.346 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,900 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.252 | 0.076 | 0.146 | P | $8,300 | P | $8,300 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.317 | 0.126 | 0.254 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE
San Diego at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
| San Diego | Toronto |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TOR -230 | 9.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.367 | 19 | 19.7% | 11.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.322 | 9 | 17.3% | 7.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 11 | 20.3% | 5.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.300 | 7 | 17.3% | 4.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Andrew Cashner |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,100 |
| FPPG: | 22.3 | FPPG: | 10.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 52.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 4 | 81.8 | 3.24 | 4.87 | 28.4% | 5.7% | 11.3% | 38.2% | 41.8% | 48.2% |
| 2016 | 15 | 86.1 | 4.50 | 4.79 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 47.3% | 34.1% | 31.0% |
| 2015 | 31 | 100.3 | 4.00 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 47.4% | 29.9% | 30.2% |
Cashner’s ERA may not show it, but he has actually pitched pretty well since coming back from injury. In four starts, he has a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.4%. Cashner used to be a pitcher that we could use when he was pitching at home in favorable matchups, and if he continues to trend upward, that will be the case once against. What we don’t want to do is target him on the road against potent offenses like the Blue Jays. His hard hit contact rate of 31% will look awfully enticing to these Toronto bats.
| Marcus Stroman |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $8,400 |
| FPPG: | 27.7 | FPPG: | 13.2 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 78.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 93.2 | 3.13 | 3.90 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 9.9% | 67.0% | 18.6% | 25.3% |
| 2016 | 20 | 96.1 | 3.77 | 4.90 | 17.3% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 60.6% | 20.0% | 31.6% |
| 2015 | 4 | 93.3 | 3.28 | 1.67 | 17.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 64.1% | 17.9% | 21.8% |
Stroman hasn’t been great this season, but he is trending in the right direction. In his last five starts, he has a 3.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.3%. He checks in as one of the heaviest favorites on the board tonight, as he squares off against the Padres at home. The Rogers Centre is known as a hitter’s park, but Stroman’s elite ground ball rate negates a lot of the ballpark effects. I would typically label him as more of an SP2, but with the lack of aces on the mound tonight, Stroman is worth a look on single pitcher sites as well. He grades out as the second best pitching option in the slate.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres’ offense has had a nice month, but a lot of that production has come against left-handed pitchers. On the season, they are still ranked 29th in team wOBA against righties. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the Rogers Centre, but they draw a difficult matchup against . He induces an elite ground ball rate, which helps limit the hard contact against him. and are interesting GPP plays, but the rest of the Padres can be avoided in this matchup.
- Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.288 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.8% (29 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.00 (21 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.113 | 0.276 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,500 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.203 | 0.242 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,000 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.178 | 0.477 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,800 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.341 | 0.178 | 0.337 | 3B | $3,400 | 2B/3B | $3,500 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.239 | 0.341 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,900 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.406 | 0.390 | 0.538 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $3,500 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.196 | 0.251 | 3B | $2,100 | 1B/3B | $2,800 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.262 | 0.101 | 0.306 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,500 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.160 | 0.134 | C | $2,500 | C | $2,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.327 | 0.195 | 0.322 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Toronto
The Blue Jays were a disappointment yet again, scoring only four runs last night against and the Padres. The thing about Toronto is that you have to keep plugging them into your lineup, because sooner or later they are going to bust out for ten or more runs. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against , who has allowed a .367 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .313 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.191 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.05 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.50 (2 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.278 | 0.392 | OF | $5,000 | OF | $4,100 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.398 | 0.268 | 0.353 | 3B | $4,800 | 3B | $5,200 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.282 | 0.364 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $4,500 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.355 | 0.211 | 0.356 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.175 | 0.330 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $4,000 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.171 | 0.278 | C | $3,100 | C | $3,400 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.330 | 0.223 | 0.416 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,200 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.130 | 0.241 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,800 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.190 | 0.418 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,800 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.351 | 0.214 | 0.350 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GREEN
Detroit at Boston – 7:10 PM ET
| Detroit | Boston |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| BOS -190 | 11.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.377 | 12 | 11.0% | 10.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 7 | 18.4% | 8.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.332 | 12 | 11.3% | 4.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.296 | 12 | 19.5% | 8.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Mike Pelfrey |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,000 | Salary: | $4,000 |
| FPPG: | 16.3 | FPPG: | 5.9 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 21.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 30 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 95.8 | 5.26 | 3.72 | 6.9% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 59.8% | 19.6% | 28.4% |
| 2016 | 19 | 95.4 | 5.34 | 4.78 | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 53.3% | 25.6% | 30.4% |
| 2015 | 30 | 88.8 | 4.59 | 4.26 | 12.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 50.8% | 26.4% | 26.1% |
Pelfrey has a strikeout rate under 10% on the season. It doesn’t really matter that he induces a 53% ground ball rate, because he’s not striking anyone out. On average, more ground balls go for hits than fly balls and when teams put the ball into play on nearly every at-bat, good things are going to happen. Obviously, anything can happen in baseball, but I have a hard time seeing Pelfrey giving up less than five runs tonight against the Red Sox.
| Steven Wright |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,700 | Salary: | $10,700 |
| FPPG: | 38.7 | FPPG: | 20.4 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 62.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 97.2 | 4.06 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 46.2% | 37.4% | 26.1% |
| 2016 | 19 | 106.1 | 4.36 | 2.67 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 46.4% | 33.8% | 26.6% |
| 2015 | 9 | 130.9 | 4.60 | 4.09 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 43.2% | 43.2% | 33.9% |
Wright hasn’t been pitching as deep into games recently, averaging only 97.2 pitches in his last five starts. One of his most endearing DFS qualities was his ability to throw 120 pitches and last deep into games. If that’s no longer the case, we need to re-think his fantasy appeal, especially at this price point. The Tigers are a very capable offense and we know that Fenway Park is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. Pitching options are limited tonight, but I will not be targeting Wright in this slate.
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
The Tigers have an above-average offense against right-handed pitching this season, ranking ninth in team wOBA and 12th in team ISO. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Fenway Park tonight, as they take on the knuckleballer, . In terms of splits, Wright has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season. However, the Tigers have the fourth highest team total on the board.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.9% (19 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.98 (4 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.157 | 0.396 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $4,400 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.083 | 0.285 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $3,400 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.407 | 0.215 | 0.409 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,000 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.149 | 0.153 | C | $3,200 | 1B | $3,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.180 | 0.304 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $3,600 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.200 | 0.325 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $2,900 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.169 | 0.371 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,200 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.324 | 0.221 | 0.291 | C | $2,100 | C | $3,100 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.056 | 0.359 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,200 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.326 | 0.159 | 0.321 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – YELLOW
Boston
The Red Sox are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also have the highest run projection on the board tonight. They arguably have the best matchup as well, as they take on the struggling . In addition to one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball, Pelfrey has allowed a .377 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .332 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Stack the Red Sox in all league formats tonight, but remember to try to work in a few unique combinations for tournaments.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.91 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.70 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 6.02 (1 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.207 | 0.367 | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,600 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.143 | 0.403 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $4,900 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.116 | 0.361 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $5,000 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.434 | 0.345 | 0.377 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $5,700 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.159 | 0.383 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,800 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.278 | 0.404 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,900 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.195 | 0.329 | 3B | $3,500 | 1B/3B | $4,900 |
| 8 | | SWITCH | 0.304 | 0.093 | 0.377 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,400 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.120 | 0.363 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,000 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.350 | 0.184 | 0.374 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , , , ,
Secondary Plays – , , ,
Stackability – GREEN
Philadelphia at Miami – 7:10 PM ET
| Philadelphia | Miami |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| MIA -150 | 8.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.344 | 12 | 17.1% | 7.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.338 | 21 | 18.2% | 10.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.271 | 8 | 25.9% | 4.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 11 | 16.4% | 9.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jerad Eickhoff |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $6,800 |
| FPPG: | 29.1 | FPPG: | 14.9 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 63.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 99.0 | 4.25 | 5.14 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 45.0% | 34.9% | 34.2% |
| 2016 | 20 | 96.4 | 4.09 | 3.98 | 20.3% | 5.9% | 9.7% | 43.6% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| 2015 | 8 | 92.4 | 3.56 | 2.65 | 24.1% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 37.9% | 40.0% | 36.2% |
Eickhoff was terrific at the start of the season, but his numbers have tailed off since. In his last six starts, he has a 4.25 SIERA with a mediocre strikeout rate of 19.4%. He is a young pitcher that we typically like to target at home. Tonight he takes on the Marlins in Miami. While this isn’t a bad matchup by any means, Eickhoff is a sizable underdog on the road. He is a deep GPP play at best tonight.
| Tom Koehler |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,400 |
| FPPG: | 25.1 | FPPG: | 11.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 61.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 11 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 90.3 | 5.11 | 5.70 | 13.9% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 32.7% | 37.5% | 31.8% |
| 2016 | 20 | 93.8 | 5.09 | 4.42 | 17.6% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 40.9% | 34.8% | 26.2% |
| 2015 | 31 | 96.0 | 4.67 | 4.08 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 46.0% | 35.6% | 34.5% |
Even though he is a favorite, I plan to have zero shares of Koehler tonight. He has been awful this season, posting a 5.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.6% and a walk rate of 11.1%. The Phillies are still one of the worst offenses in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that we should automatically target every pitcher that faces them. The upside hasn’t been there for Koehler, especially in his last six starts (13.9% strikeout rate). I’ll side with the Phillies’ offense in this matchup.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
The Phillies come into tonight’s game with the third lowest implied team total on the board. That’s not very promising, but I do like their matchup quite a bit. Over the last two seasons, has allowed a .338 wOBA and 21 home runs to left-handed hitters. With this being a full slate, I won’t be looking to target any Phillies’ bats in cash games, but I do like a few of their bats as one-offs in GPPs.
- Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.296 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.74 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.57 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.71 (28 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | SWITCH | 0.298 | 0.087 | 0.286 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,400 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.352 | 0.149 | 0.284 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,600 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.205 | 0.209 | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,500 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.242 | 0.430 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,700 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.143 | 0.285 | C | $3,000 | C | $3,300 |
| 6 | | SWITCH | 0.289 | 0.125 | 0.243 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,300 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.301 | 0.166 | 0.165 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,000 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.144 | 0.156 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,800 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.194 | 0.050 | 0.530 | P | $7,900 | P | $6,800 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.296 | 0.146 | 0.288 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Miami
The Marlins have the third lowest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they also have the sixth lowest strikeout rate. So, while they aren’t hitting for power, they are at least putting the ball in play. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against , who has allowed a .344 wOBA and 12 home runs to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He has been tough on righties though, holding them to a .271 wOBA.
- Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.1% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.29 (14 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.122 | 0.241 | C | $3,000 | C | $4,000 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.089 | 0.316 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,600 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.165 | 0.426 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,000 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.255 | 0.350 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,300 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.140 | 0.227 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.363 | 0.178 | 0.147 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $2,900 |
| 7 | Chris Johnson | RIGHT | 0.251 | 0.096 | 0.320 | 1B | $2,100 | 1B | $2,300 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.086 | 0.312 | SS | $2,100 | SS | $2,900 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.116 | 0.015 | 0.220 | P | $6,900 | P | $6,400 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.295 | 0.127 | 0.284 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – (FD),
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
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