MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-02 02:22:54

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Tampa Bay
			Danny Duffy					Chris Archer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -125					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.253	1	26.7%	5.6%	SP vs. Left	0.286	18	28.3%	7.6%
SP vs. Right	0.331	27	20.1%	8.0%	SP vs. Right	0.296	22	28.5%	8.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Duffy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		19.9	FPPG:		11.0
					Pitcher Rating:		66.1	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	102.8	3.69	3.18	22.3%	4.3%	8.4%	44.7%	37.2%	36.7%
2016	14	92.4	3.29	3.22	27.2%	5.4%	13.1%	36.4%	43.8%	35.0%
2015	24	91.3	4.63	4.08	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	38.8%	36.5%	29.5%

Duffy is having one of the most surprising seasons thus far. In 14 starts, he has a 3.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.2% and a walk rate of only 5.4%. The knock on him earlier in the year was that he didn’t pitch deep enough into games, but that is no longer an issue. In his last five starts, he has averages 102.8 pitches per start. His matchup against the Rays is of the boom or bust variety. Tampa Bay is ranked sixth in team wOBA and 27th in team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. As a small underdog on the road, I see Duffy more as a GPP play tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Archer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$10,100
					FPPG:		32.9	FPPG:		17.7
					Pitcher Rating:		88.2	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	6	105.7	3.27	3.76	29.4%	7.5%	13.4%	45.4%	37.1%	31.0%
2016	22	102.5	3.65	4.42	27.4%	9.0%	12.0%	44.9%	34.7%	33.5%
2015	34	101.4	3.08	3.23	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%

Archer seems to be rounding into form. His indicators have looked promising all season and we are finally starting to see the results follow. In his last six starts, he has a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Royals, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Kansas City is not a patient team at the plate, averaging the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance, so we could see Archer pitch a little deeper into this game, assuming all is going well.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals have been an easy offense to avoid for most of the season, especially when they have faced a talented right-handed pitcher. Their idea of small ball and manufacturing runs hasn’t worked nearly as well as it did a year ago. They come into tonight’s game with the third-lowest team total on the board. I’m never a big fan of targeting hitters against Chris Archer when he is pitching at home in the pitcher-friendly Trop.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.129 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.76 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.95 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.35 (14 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.268	0.060	0.240	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,700
2	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.323	0.149	0.388	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,900
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.320	0.123		OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.366	0.169	0.221	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.352	0.217	0.258	1B	$2,800	1B/OF	$2,400
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.331	0.198	0.242	C	$2,700	C	$2,700
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.331	0.167	0.311	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,800
8	Raul Mondesi	SWITCH	0.220	0.000	0.251	2B	$2,200	SS	$2,200
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.298	0.127	0.325	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.134	0.280	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays’ numbers against left-handed pitching have dropped off a bit recently, but they are still ranked sixth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO. The issue tonight is their matchup. Danny Duffy has been the Royals’ best starting pitcher this season. He has a high strikeout rate and a low SIERA and a low ERA. The only statistic that stands out here is that Duffy has allowed a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons combined.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.337 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.178 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.8% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.74 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.95 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.65 (12 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.401	0.285	0.261	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,100
2	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.395	0.202	0.258	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.386	0.226	0.421	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000
4	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.348	0.223	0.315	OF	$3,200	1B/2B	$3,600
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.311	0.173	0.170	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.268	0.057	0.295	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.309	0.216	0.583	2B	$2,900	2B/SS	$3,100
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.286	0.118	0.237	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900
9	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.215	0.071	0.214	C	$2,000	C	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.175	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					Cleveland
			Jose Berrios					Danny Salazar
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -230					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.431	1	30.6%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.287	18	27.5%	7.0%
SP vs. Right	0.488	4	23.1%	20.5%	SP vs. Right	0.287	15	25.4%	9.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Berrios
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,800
					FPPG:		16.5	FPPG:		6.0
					Pitcher Rating:		47.5	Pitcher Rank:		13
2016	4	80.3	4.76	10.20	26.7%	16.0%	10.6%	35.0%	42.5%	40.5%

Berrios was sent back down to the minors after struggling in his first four major league starts. He posted a 10.20 ERA, which isn’t going to get the job done at this level. The good news was that he was able to strikeout 26.7% of the batters that he faced. His numbers in the minors have been tremendous this season and he is one of the Twins’ top pitching prospects. They are hoping that he will fare a little better after regaining his confidence at Triple-A. I’m not ready to start targeting him in DFS, but will be keeping my eye on him the rest of the way.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Danny Salazar
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		39.7	FPPG:		21.2
					Pitcher Rating:		90.2	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	5	99.6	3.26	4.66	24.8%	4.8%	9.6%	51.7%	28.7%	36.4%
2016	19	103.1	3.78	2.97	27.4%	10.3%	11.1%	49.1%	34.5%	34.9%
2015	30	101.6	3.39	3.45	25.8%	7.0%	11.8%	43.9%	37.4%	28.9%

Salazar is the biggest favorite on the board tonight, which generally means his ownership is going to be high. He has given up a few runs in his last few starts, but owns a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27.4% on the season. He draws a favorable matchup against the Twins, who are ranked 19th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. There isn’t a lot of downside in this matchup and Salazar always brings a high ceiling to the party. With the slight price discount over Stephen Strasburg, Salazar is my favorite cash game target in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season, ranking below the major league average in most offensive categories. The only concern that I have for Danny Salazar is that the Twins average the fourth most pitches per plate appearance. However, with the lowest implied team total on the board, the Twins are an easy offense to avoid in both cash games and GPPs.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.2% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.25 (16 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.315	0.193	0.329	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.321	0.114	0.237	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,900
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.359	0.233	0.289	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,700
4	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.276	0.153	0.289	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,500
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.338	0.281	0.331	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500
6	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.301	0.185	0.350	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
7	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.318	0.139	0.279	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.280	0.093	0.320	C	$2,200	C	$2,600
9	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.300	0.138	0.212	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.170	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

There aren’t many times during the season when we have the team with the highest and the team with the lowest implied team totals facing each other, but that’s the case tonight. The Indians are projected to score 4.75 runs, which is slightly higher than the totals of the Nationals and Blue Jays. The Indians draw a favorable matchup against Jose Berrios, who didn’t look prepared for his first stint in the majors. The Indians will look to jump on the rookie early.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.75 (1 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.351	0.231	0.280	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,100
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.383	0.194	0.396	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,100
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.347	0.158	0.340	SS	$3,700	SS	$5,300
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.304	0.187	0.365	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.311	0.129	0.293	3B	$3,000	3B/OF	$4,700
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.318	0.149	0.342	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900
7	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.320	0.158	0.237	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,700
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.435	0.312	0.539	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800
9	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.267	0.116	0.293	C	$2,000	C	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.182	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					NY Mets
			CC Sabathia					Logan Verrett
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -108					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.259	4	25.0%	6.8%	SP vs. Left	0.303	9	18.5%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.343	33	16.8%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.324	8	16.9%	10.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
CC Sabathia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		27.5	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		54.6	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	6	97.5	4.84	6.27	12.9%	6.4%	10.1%	52.6%	33.1%	23.5%
2016	18	95.6	4.69	3.95	17.3%	8.6%	9.6%	48.2%	34.8%	24.2%
2015	29	93.2	4.08	4.73	18.9%	6.9%	9.1%	45.9%	32.4%	29.1%

Sabathia’s numbers weren’t too bad in his first 10-12 starts, but he has really struggled since. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.84 SIERA (6.27 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 12.9%. While he doesn’t stand out as a great fantasy option, he has limited the hard hit contact against him (24.2%). He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite against the Mets, but this looks like an easy game to fade when it comes to the starting pitchers.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Logan Verrett
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$4,800
					FPPG:		11.5	FPPG:		5.5
					Pitcher Rating:		47.7	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	104.2	5.11	4.09	14.1%	9.9%	8.8%	48.6%	28.6%	30.8%
2016	9	101.2	4.94	4.12	15.9%	10.0%	8.5%	44.8%	33.0%	33.6%
2015	4	94.3	3.90	3.59	20.5%	7.9%	11.8%	44.6%	39.2%	26.9%

Verrett has been a lot more effective out of the bullpen than he has as a starter. In his last five starts, he has a 5.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14.1% and a walk rate of 9.9%. He has given up a hard hit contact over of 33.6% on the season and he is facing a Yankees’ lineup that makes great contact. It’s going to be tough to find the strikeouts for Verrett in this matchup, which makes him an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees always seem to get more love from the oddsmakers than they deserve, but tonight’s run projection seems fair. The Yankees currently have the eighth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Logan Verrett. On the season, Verrett has allowed a .315 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .370 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.305 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.151 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.05 (8 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.325	0.137	0.285	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.307	0.102	0.197	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.353	0.208	0.384	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
4	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.330	0.207	0.231	C	$3,200	C	$3,600
5	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.350	0.276	0.281	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,100
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.316	0.145	0.318	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.290	0.128	0.313	2B	$2,600	2B	$2,900
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.306	0.121	0.285	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,700
9	CC Sabathia	LEFT	0.000	0.000		P	$6,800	P	$7,600
	Team Averages	—	0.286	0.147	0.287	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets have some fantasy appeal tonight, as they host CC Sabathia and the Yankees. Citi Field is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball, but that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically avoid all of the hitters here. Sabathia has been a lot better against right-handed hitters this year, but has still allowed a .343 wOBA and 33 home runs to righties in the last two seasons combined.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.0% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.71 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.95 (10 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.279	0.135	0.263	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
2	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.296	0.134	0.224	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.418	0.313	0.412	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700
4	James Loney	LEFT	0.244	0.088	0.337	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,300
5	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.377	0.242	0.258	C	$2,100	C	$2,800
6	Justin Ruggiano	RIGHT	0.404	0.279		OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900
7	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.133	0.000	0.324	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100
8	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.313	0.186	0.247	3B	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,000
9	Logan Verrett	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$6,700	P	$4,800
	Team Averages	—	0.274	0.153	0.258	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Travis d’Arnaud, Justin Ruggiano

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Chicago Cubs
			Adam Conley					Kyle Hendricks
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.326	1	16.7%	9.3%	SP vs. Left	0.320	16	21.0%	6.9%
SP vs. Right	0.303	16	23.1%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.254	10	23.3%	5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Conley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		30.5	FPPG:		15.7
					Pitcher Rating:		59.5	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	6	93.3	4.02	2.91	24.7%	8.2%	11.1%	33.3%	49.5%	42.1%
2016	21	93.6	4.34	3.38	22.2%	9.3%	9.9%	38.3%	41.4%	31.3%
2015	11	100.2	3.98	3.76	21.0%	7.5%	10.1%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%

Conley has quietly pitched very well this season, posting a 3.38 ERA (4.34 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 22.2%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact though, so I generally like to use him in big ballparks that are tough to hit home runs in. Given the fact that he has to face the Cubs in Wrigley tonight, he becomes an easy fade in all league formats. Chicago is ranked second in team wOBA and third in team ISO against southpaws.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kyle Hendricks
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$9,700
					FPPG:		32.1	FPPG:		17.5
					Pitcher Rating:		76.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	104.4	4.16	1.41	19.4%	7.0%	10.2%	50.0%	33.0%	25.5%
2016	19	94.8	3.81	2.39	21.9%	6.8%	9.4%	52.3%	30.2%	25.2%
2015	32	87.3	3.37	3.95	22.6%	5.8%	8.1%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%

Hendricks is also having a nice season that is flying under the radar. In 19 starts, he has a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.9%. Given the quality of these two offenses, I’d much rather target Hendricks at home against the Marlins instead of Conley on the road against the Cubs. Hendricks has a good chance of picking up the win tonight and his price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I currently have him ranked as my fourth favorite pitching target overall (not factoring in salaries).

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, but are ranked 28th in team ISO. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against Kyle Hendricks and it looks like the wind will be blowing straight in from center field (which is always important to look at when the game is in Wrigley). Hendricks has struggled a bit with left-handed hitters, but the likes of Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon are GPP plays at best.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (15 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.321	0.080		2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.306	0.090	0.365	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.376	0.164	0.407	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.356	0.259	0.386	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.306	0.139	0.262	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.360	0.177	0.137	1B	$2,300	2B	$2,500
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.318	0.123	0.304	C	$2,700	C	$3,600
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.275	0.085	0.319	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,800
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.115	0.000	0.125	P	$8,800	P	$8,000
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.124	0.288	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the fifth highest implied team total on the board tonight, as they square off against Adam Conley at home. As I mentioned above, Conley has a high fly-ball and hard hit contact rate, which does open the door for some of the Cubs’ hitters tonight. They aren’t my favorite offense to target, but the top five batters in this lineup are all on my radar.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.351 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.191 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.4% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.82 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.06 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (5 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.377	0.156	0.295	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.384	0.264	0.296	3B	$4,300	3B/OF	$4,900
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.375	0.212	0.308	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,300
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.382	0.173	0.240	2B	$3,700	2B/OF	$4,100
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.372	0.162	0.290	C	$3,300	C/OF	$3,600
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.272	0.158	0.396	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,700
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.306	0.097	0.171	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.447	0.228	0.412	SS	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,900
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.089	0.042	0.000	P	$9,100	P	$9,700
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.166	0.268	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Houston
			Marcus Stroman					Doug Fister
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -127					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.325	10	18.0%	7.2%	SP vs. Left	0.346	20	13.1%	7.6%
SP vs. Right	0.297	7	17.3%	4.8%	SP vs. Right	0.303	9	16.2%	6.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marcus Stroman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$8,200
					FPPG:		27.8	FPPG:		13.4
					Pitcher Rating:		67.2	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	94.8	2.67	3.71	22.1%	2.9%	9.5%	66.3%	18.8%	25.5%
2016	21	96.2	3.71	4.92	17.7%	6.1%	8.6%	60.6%	20.3%	31.7%
2015	4	93.3	3.28	1.67	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%

Stroman comes into this game in his best form so far in 2016. In his last five starts, he has a 2.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.1%. He has always had an elite ground ball rate and when you throw an above-average strikeout rate into the mix, he becomes a very tough pitcher to score runs against. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Astros, who are ranked tenth in team wOBA and 27th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. I like his upside for tournaments, but he is a little too risky to target in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Doug Fister
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		28.4	FPPG:		13.6
					Pitcher Rating:		43.7	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	99.8	5.85	4.91	12.4%	11.6%	6.4%	42.3%	39.2%	28.9%
2016	20	98.5	4.96	3.73	15.0%	8.4%	5.9%	46.9%	34.5%	29.6%
2015	15	110.3	4.47	4.19	14.0%	5.4%	5.2%	44.6%	34.1%	29.5%

Fister is finally starting to regress a bit. In his last five starts, he has a 5.85 SIERA (4.91 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 12.4% and a walk rate of 11.6%. Even if he was in good form, I wouldn’t be targeting him tonight. Not only are the Blue Jays one of the best offenses in baseball, but Fister doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to justify the play. Marcus Stroman is by far the more appealing target in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays may be playing on the road, but they come into tonight’s game with the third-highest run projection. They draw a favorable matchup against Doug Fister, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher this season. The left-handed hitters have the edge in this matchup (.346 wOBA allowed by Fister), but don’t count out the right-handed power bats in this lineup.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (20 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.05 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.91 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (3 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.381	0.275	0.211	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.399	0.271	0.372	3B	$4,800	3B	$5,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.279	0.346	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,600
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.353	0.208	0.328	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.309	0.171	0.333	C	$3,200	C	$3,300
6	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.300	0.154	0.176	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.130	0.256	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.370	0.186	0.403	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,200
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.322	0.136	0.230	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.201	0.295	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston

The Astros may have the seventh highest implied team total on the board tonight, but I’m not in love with their matchup. I have a hard time targeting hitters against elite ground ball pitchers because most hits against them are going to be singles. Marcus Stroman comes into this game in great form and he has been tough on right-handed hitters in his career, which bodes well for this matchup. I’m taking a stand here and will be fading the Stros.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.326 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.178 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.9% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.92 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.55 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (7 of 16)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.338	0.173	0.333	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.302	0.143	0.365	1B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,000
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.354	0.162	0.518	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,500
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.372	0.228	0.438	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,800
5	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.322	0.208	0.097	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
6	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.197	0.000	0.125	3B	$2,500	SS	$3,900
7	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.311	0.153		1B	$2,200	1B	$3,400
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.302	0.144	0.260	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.326	0.195	0.307	C	$2,400	C	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.156	0.305	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 1st

Stackability Rating System:

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Beltran

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Travis d’Arnaud, Justin Ruggiano

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Michael Saunders, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – ORANGE

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