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MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-15 01:38:39

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Happy Monday everyone. We only have eight games on the schedule tonight, but it sets up for a very nice slate. There isn’t a game in Coors Field (hooray!), there are a number of viable pitching options, and it’s a night where you don’t necessarily need to stack. I’m opening with this intro because I wanted to mention a slight change to the statistics. All of the batting stats and pitcher splits are now from the 2018 season rather than the last two years combined. It’s always a hard balance when it comes to sample size, but statistics like xwOBA (which show what a hitter or pitcher should have) help. Comparing xwOBA to actual wOBA from this season can help us spot potential regression for both hitters and pitchers.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Kansas City
tampabaymlb Ryan Yarbrough kansascitymlb Eric Skoglund
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -108 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.384 0.330 33.3% 13.5% 27.0% 28.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.406 0.469 50.0% 8.7% 13.0% 23.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.227 0.310 26.6% 5.7% 19.3% 34.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.365 48.2% 6.8% 21.2% 45.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Yarbrough
ryan-yarbrough-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18 Salary Rank: 14 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 2 4.13 4.30 21.6% 8.0% 32.9% 28.2% 22.4%
L14 1 2.22 4.50 29.0% 0.0% 50.0% 34.6% 26.9%

Yarbrough will be making his third career major league start. In his last full season at the Triple-A level (26 starts), he posted a 3.87 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25%. In his limited major league sample, we’ve seen a below-average fastball with a swinging strike rate of only 7.7%. With a larger sample, I’d expect Yarbrough to have an average or slightly below-average strikeout rate. He checks in as a slight underdog against the Royals on the road. This is a good ballpark for pitchers, but the high total (9.0 runs) is enough to keep me off of Yarbrough in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup is enticing, but I will continue to take a wait and see approach with Yarbrough.

Eric Skoglund
eric-skoglund-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 18 Salary Rank: 12 of 18 Salary Rank: 11 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 5.83 9.50 15.1% 12.9% 36.4% 34.3% 13.4%
2018 6 4.32 6.34 19.9% 7.1% 42.3% 48.5% 15.2%
L14 2 4.57 6.55 18.4% 8.2% 41.2% 47.2% 16.7%

Skoglund is a very hittable pitcher. In his last 11 major league starts, he has a SIERA over five with a below-average strikeout rate. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. When you accompany that with a low strikeout rate, it typically doesn’t end well. The Rays haven’t been great offensively, but their lineup doesn’t look terrible against left-handed pitching. They have five batters in their projected lineup with at least a .370 xwOBA against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Skoglund offers more risk than upside, even in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw an exploitable matchup against Eric Skoglund. While Kauffman Stadium isn’t the best ballpark for offensive production, this game features a high total for two less than potent offenses. On the season, Skoglund has allowed a .469 xwOBA to lefties and a .365 xwOBA to righties. This isn’t a spot where I want to stack the Rays, but C.J. Cron and Wilson Ramos both own a .370+ xwOBA and a .235+ ISO against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.286 0.357 0.000 27.8% 7.0% 9.3% 41.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.370 0.365 0.238 41.9% 6.5% 23.9% 38.7% 1B $3,400 1B $3,600 1B $7,400
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.248 0.306 0.029 33.3% 2.8% 30.6% 58.3% 3B $3,100 3B $3,200 3B $6,500
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.428 0.352 0.250 46.9% 7.7% 10.3% 53.1% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,800
5 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.398 0.252 0.345 36.4% 25.6% 17.9% 31.8% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,300
6 Denard Span LEFT 0.421 0.392 0.190 31.3% 22.2% 18.5% 37.5% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.244 0.281 0.196 25.9% 2.0% 38.8% 14.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,200
8 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.377 0.295 0.160 43.8% 23.5% 26.5% 43.8% OF $2,000 2B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,800
9 Johnny Field RIGHT 0.330 0.337 0.318 46.7% 4.3% 30.4% 40.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (DK), Matt Duffy, Daniel Robertson

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City

The Royals have not fared well against left-handed pitching this season. As you can see from the table below, seven of their projected starters have an xwOBA under .315 against southpaws. This rules out a stack in my eyes, especially since the game is being played in Kansas City. Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler both own a .440+ xwOBA against lefties this season and are viable one-offs in all formats. Salvador Perez is also viable on DraftKings ($3,800).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.441 0.375 0.264 48.9% 7.0% 14.0% 35.6% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.478 0.344 0.366 53.6% 14.0% 28.0% 42.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,200
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.311 0.360 0.121 38.8% 0.0% 18.0% 40.8% 3B $4,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.233 0.356 0.174 28.6% 7.7% 38.5% 35.7% C $3,500 C $3,800 C $7,400
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.301 0.391 0.071 20.0% 2.2% 26.7% 33.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
6 Jon Jay LEFT 0.266 0.292 0.000 30.0% 14.3% 24.5% 72.4% OF $2,800 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
7 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.302 0.356 0.167 23.1% 14.3% 23.8% 53.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.307 0.280 0.206 31.0% 2.6% 15.8% 51.7% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $5,800
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.224 0.220 0.067 37.5% 20.0% 40.0% 0.0% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,600

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler

Secondary Plays – Salvador Perez (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco detroitmlb Mike Fiers
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.275 27.0% 6.3% 27.1% 39.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.403 0.412 37.5% 3.3% 16.7% 41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.330 31.2% 4.6% 24.8% 39.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.304 34.9% 3.9% 14.1% 41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $12,200 Salary: $24,100
Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18 Salary Rank: 2 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.35 3.29 28.3% 5.8% 45.2% 29.3% 19.4%
2018 8 3.44 3.61 25.9% 5.4% 39.6% 29.3% 13.6%
L14 2 2.62 5.02 35.6% 6.8% 38.2% 41.2% 8.8%

Let’s quickly take a look at Carrasco’s home/road splits over the last two seasons:

Home: 3.72 FIP with a strikeout rate of 26%.
Road: 2.63 FIP with a strikeout rate of 29%.

There have been matchups here and there to play Carrasco at home, but for the most part I target him exclusively on the road. He draws an excellent matchup in Detroit tonight, as he squares off against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense. Carrasco has held this current Tigers’ roster to a .252 wOBA with 43 strikeouts in 173 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is my top pitching option of the slate.

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,200
Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 15 of 18 Salary Rank: 15 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1%
2018 6 4.57 4.73 15.2% 3.6% 41.8% 36.0% 15.3%
L14 2 5.02 6.75 15.4% 2.6% 28.1% 43.8% 12.5%

Fiers continues to struggle for the Tigers. These days, it doesn’t matter who the Tigers are throwing out there — it will likely be an exploitable matchup for the opponent. In six starts, Fiers owns a 4.57 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which is not a recipe for success against the Indians.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are one of the top stacks of the slate. They are typically under-owned compared to the other top offenses in baseball, whether that’s due to price or something else, I don’t mind taking advantage of the low ownership. They are on the road tonight, which guarantees ninth inning at bats for our stack. Their matchup against Mike Fiers is certainly favorable, as he has allowed a .412 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.454 0.491 0.340 40.0% 9.1% 19.0% 31.3% SS $4,700 SS $5,300 SS $9,800
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.431 0.417 0.307 42.9% 6.1% 8.5% 41.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.397 0.470 0.323 25.0% 14.5% 9.4% 36.4% 3B $4,200 3B $5,000 IF/OF $10,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.344 0.380 0.208 33.3% 4.8% 28.6% 39.4% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.394 0.342 0.231 40.6% 8.9% 22.8% 43.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.311 0.361 0.046 35.7% 8.3% 20.8% 41.5% 2B $2,700 2B $3,500 2B $6,300
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.300 0.350 0.193 32.4% 7.8% 35.9% 38.2% C $2,500 C $3,400 C $6,700
8 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.135 0.199 0.000 57.1% 0.0% 41.7% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,900
9 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.146 0.256 0.042 38.5% 0.0% 44.0% 61.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 LF $5,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers have not hit Carlos Carrasco well in the past and I don’t expect that to change tonight. You can argue that Carrasco’s reverse-splits actually bode well for Detroit’s right-handed heavy lineup, but there are better matchups to exploit in this slate. Nick Castellanos is the one batter that sticks out from a splits perspective, but he is 9-for-40 with 12 strikeouts against Carrasco in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.240 0.355 0.108 10.0% 9.3% 20.9% 26.7% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,700
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.350 0.317 0.243 37.0% 10.7% 21.3% 44.4% 3B $3,700 3B $3,500 3B $8,000
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.386 0.336 0.152 46.4% 5.8% 23.1% 34.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,300
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.371 0.349 0.124 46.9% 8.9% 9.9% 37.0% C $2,500 1B $3,000 1B $5,500
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.326 0.417 0.250 50.0% 1.8% 31.6% 27.8% C $2,900 1B/C $3,200 C $6,600
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.313 0.349 0.078 32.9% 4.1% 16.5% 40.8% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $5,600
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.348 0.273 0.193 38.3% 3.4% 27.0% 40.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.242 0.265 0.083 22.0% 2.6% 16.4% 47.2% SS $2,800 SS $2,600 SS $4,700
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.329 0.277 0.087 36.5% 6.3% 17.0% 43.5% 2B $2,100 2B $2,700 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Oakland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Oakland Boston
oaklandmlb Sean Manaea bostonmlb Rick Porcello
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-150 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.237 0.255 13.9% 3.6% 25.5% 44.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.251 0.278 35.9% 4.3% 27.7% 34.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.218 0.343 41.7% 3.3% 20.4% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.237 0.271 25.9% 3.6% 20.7% 60.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Manaea
sean-manaea-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18 Salary Rank: 5 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.51 4.37 20.2% 8.0% 44.1% 33.3% 14.8%
2018 8 3.68 2.11 21.7% 3.4% 42.2% 35.1% 17.9%
L14 2 4.10 6.17 16.0% 0.0% 32.4% 30.8% 12.8%

Manaea threw a no-hitter against the Red Sox earlier this season, but now has to face them in Boston. To make matters worse, Manaea hasn’t been in good form in his last two starts, posting a strikeout rate of only 16% with a ground ball rate of only 32%. He checks in as a sizable underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. I would rather stack the Red Sox than play Manaea.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea has some regression against righties coming his way. I’ll take my chances with the Red Sox in this matchup.

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,500
Salary Rank: 4 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18 Salary Rank: 3 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.28 4.65 20.5% 5.4% 39.2% 38.3% 17.1%
2018 8 3.36 2.79 23.9% 3.9% 49.3% 30.3% 21.4%
L14 2 3.91 4.76 22.9% 8.3% 50.0% 50.0% 12.5%

Porcello is having another solid season, posting a 3.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has induced more ground balls this season, which has led to a lower hard contact rate and a higher soft contact rate. While there are certainly some strikeouts to be had in this A’s lineup, there is also a lot of power. Their projected starters have an average xwOBA of .346 against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags for Porcello tonight, most notably the matchup and ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

This is one of my favorite games to target in tournaments. I hope that everyone sees the two pitchers on the mound and decides to avoid these offenses. Rick Porcello has been solid this season, but he has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The A’s see a massive ballpark boost playing in Fenway and they’ve shown us time and time again that their stack can win tournaments. This is an offense that draws walks and gets the ball in the air.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.306 0.275 0.085 29.7% 7.1% 21.3% 46.2% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,300
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.356 0.313 0.155 33.8% 19.0% 22.3% 33.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 RF $5,700
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.392 0.336 0.286 39.8% 10.9% 19.3% 37.3% 2B $3,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,300
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.427 0.394 0.289 53.0% 8.6% 25.0% 34.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 LF $8,000
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.370 0.327 0.173 49.2% 11.6% 34.8% 32.2% 1B $2,800 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,700
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.371 0.268 0.219 40.0% 11.7% 25.0% 37.8% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,600
7 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.277 0.277 0.000 30.0% 8.3% 8.3% 40.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.324 0.366 0.140 41.0% 10.9% 28.1% 38.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
9 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.292 0.262 0.103 57.1% 6.3% 28.1% 52.4% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,900

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Dustin Fowler

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Sean Manaea no-hitter against the Red Sox was such a shock that it’s the first thing we all think about when we look at this matchup. People will be hesitant to play the Red Sox in this matchup, especially given how expensive they are across the industry. I see an opportunity to play the Red Sox at home against a pitcher that should have some serious regression coming his way. On the season, Manaea has an actual wOBA of .218 against righties, but an expected wOBA of .343. The Red Sox mash left-handed pitching and they are going to make adjustments tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.523 0.501 0.568 36.1% 11.6% 4.7% 33.3% OF $5,000 OF $5,800 RF $11,100
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.209 0.290 0.086 4.8% 12.5% 35.0% 61.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 LF $9,300
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.343 0.338 0.167 42.9% 7.7% 20.5% 57.1% 1B $4,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.346 0.451 0.143 50.0% 2.8% 36.1% 50.0% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 RF $10,100
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.390 0.359 0.167 18.8% 4.0% 32.0% 18.8% SS $3,800 SS $4,100 SS $8,200
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.303 0.488 0.190 40.0% 12.5% 25.0% 46.7% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 1B $8,500
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.295 0.268 0.026 24.2% 4.9% 14.6% 46.9% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,200 3B $6,300
8 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.243 0.316 0.150 27.6% 2.4% 26.8% 44.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.167 0.336 0.000 18.2% 6.3% 25.0% 18.2% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – GREEN

Seattle at Minnesota – 7:10 PM ET

Seattle Minnesota
seattlemlb Wade LeBlanc minnesotamlb Jake Odorizzi
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-108 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.344 28.6% 0.0% 11.8% 57.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.351 0.362 35.1% 10.1% 17.7% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.345 30.4% 5.3% 21.1% 33.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.344 31.8% 12.1% 24.2% 27.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade LeBlanc
wade-leblanc-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18 Salary Rank: 16 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.97 4.50 19.1% 6.0% 45.9% 34.1% 20.9%
2018 2 3.94 3.18 19.4% 4.3% 38.6% 30.0% 17.1%
L14 2 4.08 1.00 18.2% 3.0% 42.3% 26.9% 23.1%

LeBlanc has been serviceable for the Mariners, but he’s far from an ideal candidate in DFS. He doesn’t pitch deep into games (has only made it through five innings once this season) and he has a below-average strikeout rate (19%). He basically needs five shutout innings and a win to reach value, which is a tall task for a pitcher that is better out of the bullpen.

Quick Breakdown: LeBlanc doesn’t have a high enough ceiling or floor to warrant consideration.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 18 Salary Rank: 8 of 18 Salary Rank: 8 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.90 4.14 21.0% 10.1% 30.6% 36.8% 15.3%
2018 8 4.96 3.83 21.4% 11.2% 26.1% 33.3% 24.2%
L14 2 4.20 3.48 26.8% 9.8% 25.0% 23.1% 34.6%

Odorizzi has shown some signs of life in his last two starts, posting a 4.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. A move to Minnesota hasn’t been great for his career just yet, but we are still early in the season. Even with Robinson Cano on the DL, the Mariners still have an excellent offense against right-handed pitching. Five of their projected starters have a .369+ xwOBA against righties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi’s form is a concern, as is his matchup against the Mariners.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are playing in a decent hitter’s park and draw a mediocre matchup against Jake Odorizzi. While he does boast an above-average strikeout rate, he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .362 xwOBA to lefties and a .344 xwOBA to righties this season. Historically, Odorizzi has had reverse-splits, but this season he has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. A full Mariners’ stack isn’t on my radar, but Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Mitch Haniger are all viable one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.308 0.318 0.082 16.1% 2.6% 16.2% 52.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,600
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.317 0.323 0.127 31.5% 4.3% 17.1% 52.2% SS $3,500 SS $3,900 SS $7,500
3 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.369 0.373 0.232 40.0% 3.4% 19.5% 50.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $7,700
4 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.380 0.387 0.245 39.5% 7.5% 16.0% 29.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000 3B $7,700
5 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.435 0.393 0.309 42.0% 12.4% 24.8% 33.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 LF $8,300
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.420 0.479 0.290 38.8% 3.1% 20.3% 36.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 3B $8,000
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.439 0.350 0.370 51.6% 7.8% 29.4% 38.7% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,800
8 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.249 0.299 0.023 22.6% 8.3% 25.0% 41.9% OF $2,400 OF $2,600 RF $5,000
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.338 0.398 0.071 10.0% 15.8% 26.3% 55.6% OF $2,100 OF/SS $2,400 IF/OF $4,900

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Kyle Seager, Mitch Haniger

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins draw a nice matchup against Wade LeBlanc at home, but they aren’t really equipped to mash a left-handed pitcher at the moment. They have far too many lefties in their lineup and six of their projected starters have an xwOBA under .280 against left-handed pitching. A stack can immediately be ruled out, but Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar are both elite one-off plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.351 0.415 0.000 31.3% 25.9% 14.8% 68.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.314 0.309 0.217 36.4% 14.8% 3.7% 45.5% 2B $3,700 2B $4,500 2B $9,000
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.352 0.375 0.345 40.9% 9.1% 24.2% 36.4% 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,400 SS $9,200
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.272 0.398 0.290 43.5% 0.0% 28.1% 36.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
5 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.140 0.246 0.000 27.3% 0.0% 31.3% 45.5% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,900
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.196 0.335 0.158 20.0% 4.8% 23.8% 20.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 LF $5,800
7 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.216 0.350 0.043 23.1% 11.1% 37.0% 53.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,800
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.164 0.238 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 25.0% 66.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
9 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.251 0.265 0.150 35.7% 4.5% 27.3% 21.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Plays – Mitch Garver (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

Milwaukee Arizona
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra arizonamlb Patrick Corbin
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-135 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.315 33.3% 12.5% 29.2% 40.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.176 0.202 20.8% 7.7% 30.8% 54.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.314 40.0% 8.1% 21.0% 42.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.247 0.290 42.1% 6.5% 35.5% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 7 of 18 Salary Rank: 10 of 18 Salary Rank: 9 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 5.23 5.12 21.3% 13.7% 33.5% 33.5% 18.5%
2018 6 4.10 3.09 25.4% 10.5% 41.3% 36.6% 20.7%
L14 2 4.12 8.10 28.3% 13.0% 44.4% 48.2% 11.1%

For those of you wondering, the roof in Arizona will be open tonight. If you are ever curious, just bookmark that link and open it every time there is a game in Chase Field. The roof being open helps the hitters and is potentially why this game has a total of 8.0 runs. Guerra is in a tough spot on the road and his 11% walk rate combined with a 37% hard contact rate is a bit troubling. There are better plays for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Guerra in all formats.

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18 Salary Rank: 1 of 18
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.12 4.03 21.6% 7.4% 50.4% 31.6% 18.5%
2018 8 2.63 2.12 34.5% 6.7% 48.6% 37.5% 17.9%
L14 2 4.35 1.64 27.3% 13.6% 30.8% 50.0% 11.5%

Corbin has yet to throw more than 100 pitches in any start this season and has been held under 90 pitches in two of them. The Diamondbacks are playing it safe with their prized southpaw (well, one of their prized southpaws). While it feels gross paying $10,000 on FanDuel and $12,700 on DraftKings for someone that we can’t expect to throw more than 95-100 pitches, it’s hard to ignore Corbin’s strikeout upside. He has struck out 35% of the batters that he has faced this season.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, I prefer Carrasco over Corbin. If we see a major ownership difference between the two, I don’t mind pivoting to Corbin in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are playing in a somewhat hitter-friendly ballpark against a high-strikeout pitcher in Patrick Corbin. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA this season. The only positive that I can find in this matchup is that Corbin has allowed a 42% hard contact rate to righties. In terms of batted ball profiles, this matchup sets up well for Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun. Both righties own a .400+ xwOBA with a strikeout rate under 10% when facing a left-handed pitcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.408 0.356 0.343 35.5% 12.5% 10.0% 22.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.295 0.316 0.098 41.4% 2.3% 30.2% 58.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.452 0.290 0.273 41.9% 15.0% 7.5% 48.4% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,700 LF $7,400
4 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.434 0.404 0.300 40.0% 16.0% 20.0% 26.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.348 0.366 0.030 40.9% 10.8% 29.7% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
6 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.302 0.291 0.231 40.0% 0.0% 23.1% 30.0% OF $2,300 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,900
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.339 0.307 0.188 15.4% 15.8% 15.8% 53.8% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,400
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.201 0.251 0.000 27.3% 3.7% 14.8% 63.6% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.031 0.023 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% P $8,000 P $6,000 P $12,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are a sneaky offense to target tonight. They are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and they are playing at home with the roof open in Chase Field. Junior Guerra has an above-average strikeout rate, but has allowed a 33% hard contact rate to lefties and a 40% hard contact rate to righties this season. David Peralta, Daniel Descalso, A.J. Pollock, and Steven Souza are all on my radar for tournaments. Something doesn’t seem right with Paul Goldschmidt right now and we are still having to pay a premium, which makes him an easy fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.398 0.414 0.283 50.0% 11.5% 17.3% 44.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.381 0.350 0.213 43.8% 15.2% 19.2% 28.1% 3B $2,600 3B $3,000 3B $5,400
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.314 0.274 0.110 34.4% 15.0% 32.5% 44.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.417 0.444 0.284 44.3% 7.9% 21.1% 38.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 CF $9,200
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.212 0.244 0.000 29.4% 11.5% 23.1% 41.2% OF $2,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,400
6 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.287 0.291 0.111 31.8% 7.4% 27.9% 45.5% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.253 0.135 0.103 45.8% 10.8% 52.3% 33.3% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,600
8 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.260 0.337 0.083 27.4% 6.6% 12.1% 55.6% 2B $2,200 2B $3,000 SS $5,800
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.187 0.173 0.000 0.0% 22.2% 33.3% 75.0% P $10,000 P $12,700 P $24,600

Elite Plays – David Peralta, A.J. Pollock (GPP)

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock (Cash), Daniel Descalso, Steven Souza

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious