MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-10 20:09:34

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Houston at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Detroit
			Justin Verlander							Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-300							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.222	27.7%	1.34	38.9%	30.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.219	0.308	27.4%	0.71	21.7%	57.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.277	0.285	29.7%	1.25	29.1%	28.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.382	0.396	33.8%	1.77	16.8%	44.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,600	Salary:			$12,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 24	Salary Rank:			2 of 24	Salary Rank:
	2017	33	4.05	3.36	25.8%	8.5%	33.5%	34.5%	17.5%	95.2	10.7%
	2018	30	2.78	2.73	33.6%	4.6%	29.0%	28.9%	20.7%	95.1	13.8%
	L14	2	2.31	2.92	39.6%	6.3%	23.1%	23.1%	23.1%	94.9	15.9%

There are 12 games on the schedule today and two start a little early. This creates a nice little early/late slate action if you are into that sort of thing. Verlander is the top pitching option on the schedule tonight, but only available for selection in the early two-game slate. In 30 starts this season, he owns a 2.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% and a walk rate of 5%. He’s cut down on his hard contact and has generated a lot more swings and misses this season. He’s a -300 favorite against the Tigers, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .306 with a strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We don’t have to get cute here. Get Verlander into your lineups in the two-game early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			22 of 24	Salary Rank:			21 of 24	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%	92.9	9.6%
	2018	22	5.26	4.90	17.7%	12.8%	46.8%	32.6%	17.2%	92.0	10.1%
	L14	2	4.44	5.79	16.3%	7.0%	51.5%	30.3%	15.2%	92.9	8.6%

Liriano has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In 22 starts, he owns a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 13%. Those numbers are quite a bit different than those of Justin Verlander. Liriano has a low floor, a low ceiling, and a difficult matchup against the Astros. Houston’s projected lineup boasts a .356 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. There is a reason why the Tigers are such large underdogs tonight at home.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros and Dodgers are the top two offenses to target in the early slate and they are both playing on the board, which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats for both teams. In terms of the matchup, I’ll give a slight edge to Houston, as they get to face the very hittable Francisco Liriano. On the season, he has allowed a .396 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This sets up beautifully for the Astros, whose best hitters all bat from the right side of the plate. George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Tyler White all boast a .380+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.376	0.205	38.7%	9.6%	22.9%	47.7%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.397	0.127	39.3%	8.1%	12.1%	38.8%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.383	0.270	35.4%	12.5%	9.9%	30.6%	3B	$4,700	3B/SS	$5,800	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.338	0.122	29.4%	14.0%	22.4%	36.8%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.424	0.347	41.2%	15.5%	25.9%	32.4%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.319	0.161	43.4%	5.7%	23.3%	39.8%	OF	$2,700	OF/SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.339	0.136	34.6%	6.4%	10.8%	36.2%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.324	0.256	28.0%	6.9%	16.2%	40.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.301	0.070	20.7%	9.8%	27.5%	42.9%	C	$2,300	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.356	0.188	34.5%	9.8%	19.0%	38.4%

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Tyler White

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

We go from a stackable offense of the Astros to an easy fade in the Tigers. In addition to the fact that they lack serious talent offensively, they draw the worst matchup of any team playing today. Justin Verlander has an elite strikeout rate (34%) and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.290	0.173	33.6%	11.6%	25.7%	38.5%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.296	0.147	38.0%	4.1%	21.1%	43.3%	OF	$2,400	1B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.384	0.186	47.9%	6.9%	23.8%	34.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
4	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.321	0.234	39.9%	8.6%	30.6%	38.3%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.298	0.195	25.6%	8.3%	30.3%	42.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.282	0.085	39.2%	5.6%	24.5%	38.9%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.275	0.084	33.8%	7.6%	21.9%	47.9%	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Dawel Lugo	RIGHT	0.313	0.107	44.0%	0.0%	10.7%	64.0%	3B	$2,100	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.294	0.179	30.8%	4.3%	32.2%	41.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.306	0.154	37.0%	6.3%	24.5%	43.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Cincinnati
			Alex Wood							Cody Reed
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.249	0.241	27.1%	0.00	21.9%	57.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.271	0.228	40.0%	0.00	15.2%	52.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.320	41.9%	1.11	20.5%	46.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.361	0.300	31.5%	2.16	19.2%	56.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Alex Wood
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,700	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			6 of 24	Salary Rank:			9 of 24	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	3.57	2.72	24.6%	6.2%	53.0%	27.7%	20.3%	91.8	11.8%
	2018	26	3.93	3.37	20.9%	6.2%	49.2%	37.8%	15.1%	90.0	10.7%
	L14	2	4.17	0.75	17.8%	8.9%	65.6%	21.2%	24.2%	89.3	11.4%

Wood has been a serviceable pitcher for the Dodgers. We’ve seen him regress back to his career averages after a stellar 2017 campaign. In 26 starts this season, he owns a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 38%. He sees a negative ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati, but is clearly the second best pitching option of the early slate behind Justin Verlander. The good news for Wood is that there are some strikeouts to be had against the Reds, as their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 27% against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Wood is the clear SP2 in this early slate and viable in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Cody Reed
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$4,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			20 of 24	Salary Rank:			23 of 24	Salary Rank:
	2017	1	6.46	5.09	21.5%	24.1%	60.5%	32.6%	16.3%	94.3	13.3%
	2018	3	4.15	4.81	17.9%	7.6%	55.1%	34.2%	16.5%	92.7	9.1%
	L14	2	3.91	5.91	16.7%	8.3%	65.7%	36.1%	11.1%	92.1	8.7%

Reed has improved his command this season, but it hasn’t led to a lot of success at the major league level. He currently owns a 4.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18%. His biggest weapon is his high ground ball rate, but when you combine that with a low strikeout rate, he is always at the mercy of BABIP. That’s not a good place to be when you are facing a talented offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Dodgers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .323 with a 36% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Reed in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers see a significant ballpark upgrade playing in the Great American Ballpark and they draw an exploitable matchup against Cody Reed. We don’t have a huge sample size to work with, but Reed has struggled with his command and with holding runners in his short major league career. In terms of splits, he has allowed a career .401 wOBA to right-handed hitters, while holding lefties to a .300 wOBA. Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, and David Freese make a strong four-man stack, as they all boast a .390+ xwOBA and a 39%+ hard contact rate against southpaws this season. If you are looking to get a little more contrarian, don’t be afraid to target some batters in the bottom half of the order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.293	0.106	30.6%	14.3%	19.0%	43.2%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.428	0.228	50.0%	15.3%	17.1%	23.0%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,000	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.424	0.245	39.0%	13.2%	8.8%	39.0%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.419	0.229	47.5%	7.6%	23.4%	27.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.391	0.148	41.8%	8.5%	20.2%	56.0%	3B	$2,200	1B/3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.316	0.164	33.6%	9.4%	17.3%	41.0%	OF	$2,000	OF/SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.297	0.140	31.6%	8.9%	20.7%	45.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Austin Barnes	RIGHT	0.284	0.077	37.8%	13.0%	25.2%	51.4%	C	$2,000	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Alex Wood	LEFT	0.051	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	41.2%	100.0%	P	$8,700	P	$8,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	0.149	35.8%	10.0%	21.4%	47.4%

Elite Plays – Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, David Freese

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Kike Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, Austin Barnes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are the best offense to target for leverage in this small two-game slate. Whether you are playing on a single-pitcher site and can avoid Alex Wood or whether you are playing on a multi-pitcher site and want to play Wood and a hitter or two from the Reds. On the season, he has allowed a .320 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Eugenio Suarez is one of the best hitters in baseball when facing a lefty. On the season, he owns a .459 xwOBA, a .309 ISO, and a 57% hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.405	0.147	41.8%	4.9%	15.7%	44.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.304	0.123	26.0%	3.5%	5.9%	39.3%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.364	0.107	40.5%	15.0%	21.1%	43.2%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.298	0.176	40.0%	5.5%	21.8%	39.8%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.459	0.309	57.0%	14.4%	20.5%	36.6%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.244	0.063	30.8%	5.9%	17.6%	38.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.323	0.116	36.1%	14.6%	25.2%	58.3%	C	$2,500	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.339	0.234	42.1%	9.4%	18.9%	35.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
9	Cody Reed	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,000	P	$4,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.304	0.142	34.9%	8.1%	27.4%	37.2%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Phillip Ervin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Washington								Philadelphia
			Erick Fedde							Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-140							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.368	0.408	35.4%	1.23	14.3%	52.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.343	28.1%	1.27	18.8%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.383	0.397	38.6%	1.96	21.5%	51.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.307	26.6%	0.89	18.7%	54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Erick Fedde
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$10,500
	Salary Rank:			21 of 24	Salary Rank:			20 of 24	Salary Rank:		18 of 24
	2017	3	4.45	9.39	19.7%	10.5%	61.7%	34.6%	15.4%	92.9	5.7%
	2018	7	4.22	6.00	18.3%	7.8%	51.9%	37.1%	16.2%	94.1	8.4%
	L14	1	3.14	7.20	33.3%	9.5%	50.0%	50.0%	16.7%	93.2	11.0%

I will get this out of the way early — my favorite stack in tonight’s main slate is the Phillies. Naturally, that means that I’m not a big fan of Fedde. His biggest strength is his ground ball rate, but the Phillies’ lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters. Not to mention the fact that their projected lineup boasts an average ISO of .190 and a 34% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. Fedde has a low floor and a low ceiling and should be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: With Coors soaking up ownership, this is a great opportunity to stack the Phillies.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:			14 of 24	Salary Rank:			17 of 24	Salary Rank:		16 of 24
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%	92.1	8.7%
	2018	27	4.28	3.61	18.7%	7.8%	52.8%	27.2%	19.2%	93.0	7.6%
	L14	2	3.66	6.97	29.8%	10.6%	42.9%	28.6%	21.4%	93.5	9.8%

Arrieta is coming off of an 11-strikeout performance against the Marlins, but I’m not expecting him to sustain that high k-rate moving forward. We haven’t seen much of a change in his velocity or swinging strike rate. While he is favored tonight at home, he’s facing a talented offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Nationals have five hitters in their projected lineup with at least a .350 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: The price on Arrieta is tempting, but I will be looking elsewhere tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia, but draw a mediocre matchup against Jake Arrieta. While he does have a high ground ball rate and an ability to limit hard contact, he has allowed a .343 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season. If only the Nationals had a left-handed hitter with a high fly-ball rate. Oh wait… Bryce Harper bats from the left side, he boasts a .270 ISO against right-handed pitching, and he has an elite fly-ball rate. Despite the lack of BvP in this matchup, Harper is an excellent one-off target tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.354	0.128	35.2%	8.4%	16.1%	45.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,200
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.317	0.139	29.7%	8.1%	19.9%	52.6%	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,100	IF/OF	$9,800
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.395	0.270	42.3%	18.2%	24.3%	36.9%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,500
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.384	0.197	35.7%	7.9%	13.1%	35.9%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,200
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.378	0.201	34.6%	18.5%	20.4%	50.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,000
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.384	0.208	39.9%	6.7%	18.0%	49.7%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,300
7	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.298	0.146	22.0%	7.4%	16.1%	41.1%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,500	2B	$6,300
8	Spencer Kieboom	RIGHT	0.289	0.052	28.1%	11.2%	23.6%	35.2%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,400
9	Erick Fedde	RIGHT	0.156	0.000	25.0%	11.1%	44.4%	100.0%	P	$5,800	P	$5,200	P	$10,500
	Team Averages		0.328	0.149	32.5%	10.8%	21.8%	49.7%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Juan Soto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

As mentioned above, the Phillies are my favorite offense to target in tonight’s ten-game slate. It feels a bit strange given the fact that we have a game in Coors Field, but there are two competent pitchers on the mound in Colorado. The Phillies are playing at home against Erick Fedde, who has allowed a .408 xwOBA to lefties and a .397 xwOBA to righties. His biggest strength is his ground ball, but the Phillies’ lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters, which sets up well from a batted ball perspective. Each of the first six batters in the Phillies’ lineup has an xwOBA of at least .355 against right-handed pitching this season — Carlos Santana, Justin Bour, Wilson Ramos, Rhys Hoskins, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Nick Williams.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.373	0.182	35.1%	17.9%	16.0%	39.1%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,000
2	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.374	0.229	40.6%	15.3%	24.0%	41.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
3	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.357	0.176	40.9%	8.6%	19.4%	55.4%	C	$2,800	C	$4,200	C	$8,400
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.373	0.278	36.9%	11.4%	24.5%	29.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,100
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.358	0.244	42.8%	7.2%	21.0%	39.4%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$4,400	SS	$8,000
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.370	0.196	31.8%	7.9%	21.9%	42.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
7	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.312	0.119	22.2%	14.2%	22.3%	41.6%	2B	$2,400	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,300
8	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.308	0.189	26.2%	7.6%	20.2%	39.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.152	0.100	33.3%	6.1%	57.6%	22.2%	P	$7,800	P	$6,700	P	$12,900
	Team Averages		0.331	0.190	34.4%	10.7%	25.2%	39.0%

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Bour (GPP), Wilson Ramos (GPP), Nick Williams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash), Wilson Ramos (Cash), Nick Williams (Cash)

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Tampa Bay
			Corey Kluber							Diego Castillo
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-135							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.285	36.9%	1.26	28.1%	42.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.350	50.0%	1.50	26.0%	45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.252	0.298	35.5%	0.81	23.0%	46.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.234	0.274	31.9%	0.33	27.1%	44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$12,300	Salary:			$11,100	Salary:		$21,100
	Salary Rank:			1 of 24	Salary Rank:			3 of 24	Salary Rank:		2 of 24
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%	92.6	15.6%
	2018	29	3.30	2.75	25.5%	3.8%	44.4%	36.1%	15.0%	92.1	11.2%
	L14	2	2.39	0.66	38.3%	6.4%	38.5%	34.6%	3.9%	92.1	15.4%

Kluber hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, but a 3.30 SIERA and a 26% strikeout rate is still impressive. It’s worth noting that in his last two starts, he has a 2.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. Perhaps he has been saving his best stuff for this time of year, as the Indians gear up for another playoff run. He sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Tampa Bay and he draws an excellent matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .313 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given the potential weather concerns in New York, I’ll take the discount and play Kluber over deGrom.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Diego Castillo
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,300	Salary:		$8,600
	Salary Rank:			22 of 24	Salary Rank:			24 of 24	Salary Rank:		20 of 24

	2018	5	3.51	3.40	26.7%	9.4%	45.1%	38.9%	19.5%	97.2	13.2%
	L14	3	3.12	3.86	26.9%	3.9%	38.9%	22.2%	33.3%	99.3	11.8%

Castillo looks like an excellent pitcher on paper. In five starts, he has a 3.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. As is almost always the case with the Rays’ starters, we have to dive a little deeper than the surface numbers. Castillo is a relief pitcher that will only pitch an inning or two. Jalen Beeks is the likely candidate to follow him, but the Rays haven’t actually announced that yet. I always avoid pitchers against the Indians, especially ones that will only see an inning or two.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid both pitchers from the Rays tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians see a negative ballpark shift playing in Tampa Bay and surprisingly come into the game as small favorites. With one of their aces on the mound, I figured the line would be closer to -160. I likely won’t have a ton of exposure to this offense, but I certainly prefer them over the Rays. If Jalen Beeks is in fact the long reliever tonight, the Indians will face a good righty off the bat and then a good southpaw to follow. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are borderline elite plays, but they are priced at a premium and there are some better matchups to exploit tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.383	0.252	40.9%	8.7%	16.0%	35.7%	SS	$4,800	SS	$5,200	SS	$9,600
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.402	0.184	41.9%	8.9%	8.2%	43.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,400
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.407	0.330	38.1%	17.6%	11.8%	32.5%	3B	$4,700	3B	$4,900	IF/OF	$8,700
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.378	0.250	41.9%	8.5%	22.8%	39.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,700
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.372	0.197	38.4%	9.4%	20.1%	38.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,600
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.347	0.137	37.5%	9.0%	13.3%	46.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,600
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.351	0.156	37.0%	10.6%	17.2%	33.7%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
8	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.273	0.106	43.5%	9.7%	34.8%	48.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.303	0.091	38.0%	4.6%	17.5%	44.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.357	0.189	39.7%	9.7%	18.0%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor (GPP), Jose Ramirez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (Cash), Jose Ramirez (Cash), Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays are facing an elite pitcher that seems to be rounding into form. This isn’t the spot to get cute and try a 1% owned Rays’ stack in tournaments. There are better ways to create leverage on the field. Corey Kluber has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.303	0.128	29.1%	9.2%	17.5%	47.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.351	0.173	47.5%	9.3%	25.7%	50.6%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
3	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.314	0.080	31.1%	6.7%	16.4%	51.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.355	0.232	38.7%	5.4%	25.2%	40.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,400
5	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.279	0.163	34.0%	6.6%	22.7%	47.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,500
6	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.290	0.140	31.3%	9.2%	27.7%	47.8%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,800
7	Brandon Lowe	LEFT	0.372	0.224	41.5%	13.2%	25.0%	46.3%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,600	2B	$7,500
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.294	0.124	31.4%	7.2%	25.1%	36.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
9	Jesus Sucre	RIGHT	0.258	0.028	29.0%	4.3%	16.2%	41.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,400	C	$4,500
	Team Averages		0.313	0.144	34.8%	7.9%	22.4%	45.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Miami at NY Mets – POSTPONED – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Miami								NY Mets
			Jeff Brigham							Jacob deGrom
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-300							6.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.564	0.759	100.0%	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.266	0.266	24.3%	0.48	29.1%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.421	0.472	37.5%	0.00	15.4%	0.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.211	0.247	32.2%	0.38	33.7%	47.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jeff Brigham
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,400	Salary:		$11,100
	Salary Rank:			22 of 24	Salary Rank:			19 of 24	Salary Rank:		17 of 24

	2018	1	8.88	9.00	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	50.0%	10.0%	91.7	11.0%
	L14	1	8.88	9.00	11.8%	23.5%	0.0%	50.0%	10.0%	91.7	11.0%

Brigham is making his second career major league start tonight against the Mets. He’s pitched at every single level this season, but we’ll focus on his most recent stop. In nine Triple-A starts, he posted a 4.45 FIP with a strikeout rate of 22%. He comes into tonight’s game as a huge underdog against the Mets, who have an underrated offense. Their projected lineup has an average ISO of .259 with a 33% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Assuming the weather holds, I’d rather stack the Mets instead of playing Brigham in his second career start.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,800	Salary:			$13,500	Salary:		$26,400
	Salary Rank:			2 of 24	Salary Rank:			1 of 24	Salary Rank:		1 of 24
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	28	2.90	1.68	31.3%	5.7%	45.1%	28.0%	24.7%	95.8	15.1%
	L14	2	2.78	1.29	29.6%	3.7%	48.6%	27.8%	27.8%	97.4	16.1%

DeGrom is having a career season. In 28 starts, he owns a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a soft contact rate of 25%. If you look at the table above, it is littered with blue and green boxes, which means he is above-average in every statistic. Even though the Marlins are a high-contact offense, this is still an above-average matchup for deGrom. The question is whether or not they will be able to get this game in with potential rain in the forecast. Assuming we get the green light from Kevin Roth, deGrom is the top pitching option of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: deGrom is an elite play in all formats, although a case can be made for Kluber since he’s cheaper and pitching indoors.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins’ lineup doesn’t look terrible at this point of the season, but that’s not much of an endorsement. They draw one of the worst matchups on the board, as they take on Jacob deGrom. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.313	0.049	33.8%	5.7%	12.6%	47.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,800
2	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.330	0.124	36.1%	6.5%	18.7%	48.8%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.376	0.228	39.6%	7.3%	17.6%	41.8%	C	$3,300	C	$4,900	C	$8,800
4	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.323	0.152	37.0%	6.6%	23.5%	39.6%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.344	0.116	38.2%	8.0%	18.5%	53.0%	3B	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.290	0.097	26.6%	3.7%	14.4%	52.5%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,000	SS	$5,600
7	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.284	0.145	40.5%	3.3%	31.3%	52.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
8	Austin Dean	RIGHT	0.320	0.185	41.9%	1.8%	20.0%	41.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,600
9	Jeff Brigham	RIGHT							P	$5,500	P	$5,400	P	$11,100
	Team Averages		0.323	0.137	36.7%	5.4%	19.6%	47.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

The Mets are my favorite sneaky stack of the slate. They are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his second career major league start. The Mets are affordable, they have plenty of upside, and they should fly under the radar in terms of ownership. Amed Rosario has been solid batting leadoff this season and each of the next five batters in this lineup has a .320+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season — Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Nimmo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.282	0.118	27.0%	4.9%	19.5%	50.6%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,300
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.324	0.157	30.9%	5.0%	10.8%	39.4%	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,400
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.339	0.161	37.9%	15.4%	23.1%	40.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,600
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.378	0.137	35.5%	11.2%	18.3%	29.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.345	0.220	45.4%	8.4%	21.7%	35.6%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,500
6	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.374	0.262	38.9%	13.9%	25.3%	38.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,500
7	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.274	0.189	40.4%	2.6%	35.1%	34.0%	1B	$2,100	1B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,300
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.309	0.161	39.1%	9.1%	23.3%	50.5%	C	$2,200	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.190	0.029	0.0%	5.4%	32.4%	47.4%	P	$11,800	P	$13,500	P	$26,400
	Team Averages		0.313	0.159	32.8%	8.4%	23.3%	40.7%

Elite Plays – Amed Rosario, Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier (Cash), Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 10th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Houston at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at Cincinnati – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami at NY Mets – POSTPONED – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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