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MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-12 00:54:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-115 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.410 0.365 34.1% 10.5% 22.1% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.282 24.7% 6.7% 22.6% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.347 0.339 37.5% 8.3% 19.2% 48.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.315 30.1% 11.2% 21.9% 27.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: 14 of 16 Salary Rank: 14 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 22 4.59 6.80 20.5% 9.3% 43.8% 35.9% 17.9%
L30 4 3.79 9.82 23.1% 4.4% 39.1% 32.8% 17.2%

Jimenez hasn’t had a great season overall, but his advanced numbers look pretty solid in his last four starts. During that stretch, he has a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of only 4%. When he is throwing strikes, he’s not that bad of a pitcher. It’s when he finds himself in hitter-friendly counts when he really starts to struggle. I’m not going to suggest Jimenez as a play tonight against the Blue Jays, but I won’t be recommending a Toronto stack either. Jimenez has been significantly better against right-handed hitters and we know the Blue Jays have a right-handed heavy lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Jimenez is pitching on the road in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. We can find better options.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 9 of 16 Salary Rank: 9 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 29 4.66 5.00 22.2% 9.2% 30.0% 27.7% 20.5%
L30 6 5.42 4.58 15.9% 8.3% 27.4% 27.1% 20.3%

Estrada is a pitcher that I target regularly when he’s in good form and that I avoid completely when he’s in bad form. He’s a streaky pitcher that relies on strikeouts and inducing soft contact. Over his last five starts, he has a 5.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball and the Orioles have hit the second most home runs (218) of any team in baseball this season. I see more risk than potential reward for Estrada, even though he has historically pitched well against Baltimore.

Quick Breakdown: I’m trusting recent form over PvB with Estrada. Plus, the high total makes the fade even easier.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw a boom or bust matchup against Marco Estrada, who has an extreme fly-ball rate and comes into toinght’s start in bad form. Estrada doesn’t necessarily have bad splits against left-handed (.282 xwOBA allowed) or right-handed (.315 xwOBA) allowed, but you are going to give up home runs when you allow that many fly balls. In 29 starts this season, he has allowed 26 home runs, 13 to lefties and 13 to righties. When the Orioles faced him a couple weeks back, they scored six runs on ten hits in only five innings. As always, if Miguel Montero is behind the plate, bump up anyone with speed.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.342 0.311 0.172 40.6% 5.0% 29.2% 48.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.344 0.366 0.227 37.8% 8.2% 16.2% 42.2% 3B $4,100 3B $5,400 3B $10,500
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.363 0.312 0.208 33.2% 4.4% 20.3% 40.9% 2B $3,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.309 0.200 31.0% 3.3% 18.3% 44.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.377 0.353 0.250 36.0% 6.5% 22.2% 52.1% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.341 0.257 44.3% 12.0% 35.0% 35.7% 1B $3,400 1B $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.297 0.307 0.167 31.4% 7.7% 24.4% 42.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.335 0.337 0.204 37.6% 5.9% 25.1% 41.2% C $3,200 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Seth Smith LEFT 0.347 0.355 0.184 36.5% 9.9% 20.2% 42.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 LF $6,000

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The bottom of the Blue Jays’ lineup is really bad against right-handed pitching, which hurts the appeal of a stack. It’s not that we would want to include those hitters in our Toronto stacks, but we like offenses that can keep the line moving, especially at home (they won’t see ninth inning at-bats if they are winning). Couple that with the fact that Ubaldo Jimenez has been in good form (by advanced metrics) and has a good history against Toronto and I’m not nearly as excited about this offense as most people will be. I’m still high on Ezequiel Carrera and Justin Smoak, but I like them more as cash game plays or one-off GPP targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.365 0.296 0.147 26.3% 8.1% 21.6% 48.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.384 0.377 0.265 33.0% 15.8% 23.8% 41.2% 3B $3,700 3B $4,800 3B $9,200
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.308 0.323 0.178 34.3% 13.1% 23.7% 35.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.366 0.388 0.282 41.0% 10.0% 23.0% 35.1% 1B $3,300 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.295 0.354 0.202 37.2% 7.0% 22.3% 48.3% 1B $3,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.295 0.291 0.154 36.3% 10.0% 22.4% 37.2% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.272 0.291 0.123 24.9% 4.8% 15.6% 45.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.270 0.274 0.121 29.3% 7.1% 18.7% 46.0% SS $2,200 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,700
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.230 0.248 0.106 22.2% 1.6% 15.6% 48.3% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $2,500 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit Cleveland
detroitmlb Myles Jaye clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-325 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.247 0.365 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.306 33.0% 6.6% 26.6% 43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.234 0.304 16.7% 22.2% 0.0% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.275 26.3% 5.2% 28.8% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Myles Jaye
myles-jaye-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 16 of 16 Salary Rank: 16 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 6.63 0.00 0.0% 8.3% 50.0% 30.0% 25.0%
L30 0 6.63 0.00 0.0% 8.3% 50.0% 30.0% 25.0%

I’m just speculating at this point, but Jaye’s nickname has to be MJ, right? Whether it’s MJ or M-Jaye, how would you not call him by a nickname that basically wrote itself. Jaye has made two appearances out of the bullpen this season, but will be making his first career major league start tonight against the Indians. He wasn’t all that impressive at Triple-A this season, posting a 3.98 FIP with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 9% in 11 starts. A pitcher’s numbers generally don’t get better as he move up the ranks. Vegas clearly isn’t buying into the rookie, as the Indians are -325 favorites, which is one of the biggest lines we have seen this season.

Quick Breakdown: I like to take a wait and see approach in these situations. Jaye should be avoided for now.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $13,200 Salary: $25,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16 Salary Rank: 1 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 28 3.39 3.53 27.9% 5.8% 45.5% 29.3% 20.1%
L30 6 2.64 1.90 31.5% 2.5% 52.0% 21.4% 28.2%

Carrasco is significantly better on the road than he is at home and the numbers over the last few seasons prove it. While I always keep that in mind, I’m not going to let his home/road splits divert my attention from a truly elite matchup. The projected lineup of the Tigers has seven hitters with an xwOBA below .310 and six hitters with a strikeout rate above 20% against right-handed pitching this season. In addition to the exploitable matchup, Carrasco has been in good of form as anyone recently. In his last six starts, he has a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 3%. Carrasco will be popular tonight, but he is clearly the best pitching option in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco should dominate the Tigers yet again. He is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have the worst matchup in the slate. You can argue that Zack Greinke is also a difficult matchup (which is true), but Carrasco is in better form than any pitcher taking the mound tonight. On the season, he has a strikeout rate of 28% and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. Detroit has the lowest implied total on the board and can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.289 0.307 0.130 34.3% 9.0% 13.3% 35.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.327 0.300 0.090 31.5% 6.0% 17.9% 47.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.292 0.381 0.151 44.0% 9.4% 20.4% 40.5% 1B $3,100 1B $2,900 1B $5,700
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.304 0.343 0.161 44.2% 6.6% 24.2% 37.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.332 0.306 0.153 35.7% 6.7% 22.8% 49.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.287 0.310 0.122 40.1% 6.7% 26.5% 36.9% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.279 0.250 0.114 25.0% 6.3% 25.0% 43.8% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $2,700 3B $5,400
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.244 0.233 0.086 30.3% 10.6% 37.9% 56.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 IF/OF $5,400
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.300 0.267 0.128 29.4% 4.3% 14.7% 52.4% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

We rarely see a game that features the team with the highest and the team with the lowest implied totals in the slate, but that’s the case tonight. Cleveland is projected to score just over 5.50 runs, narrowly beating out the Rangers for the top mark in the slate. We don’t know a lot about Myles Jaye, but he posted subpar numbers at the Triple-A this season and he clearly doesn’t have electric, swing and miss type of pitches. An Indians’ stack is certainly viable tonight, as each of the first six batters in their projected lineup has a .330+ xwOBA and a .200+ ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.320 0.330 0.200 31.6% 7.8% 13.3% 39.7% SS $4,500 SS $5,600 SS $10,800
2 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.370 0.336 0.274 33.3% 8.2% 19.0% 33.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.387 0.348 0.267 33.6% 8.0% 10.8% 37.8% 2B $3,900 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.376 0.391 0.265 36.9% 14.1% 19.4% 34.9% 1B $4,300 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.374 0.373 0.284 43.0% 9.5% 22.0% 32.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.372 0.390 0.230 37.2% 13.4% 18.4% 30.9% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 1B $10,200
7 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.283 0.312 0.070 38.2% 8.9% 21.5% 60.0% 3B $2,600 3B/OF $3,300 3B $6,600
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.245 0.256 0.074 35.0% 6.7% 26.7% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.269 0.264 0.108 24.1% 8.3% 26.2% 41.0% C $3,100 C $3,500 C $6,800

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Lonnie Chisenhall, Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz

Stackability – GREEN

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.263 10.3% 10.0% 22.2% 61.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.303 29.9% 9.2% 18.8% 28.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.320 31.0% 8.3% 17.7% 49.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.339 42.2% 10.7% 20.1% 31.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 16 Salary Rank: 5 of 16 Salary Rank: 5 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 23 4.59 3.91 18.5% 8.6% 50.9% 27.9% 24.8%
L30 5 4.36 4.28 18.8% 7.7% 51.8% 18.6% 32.6%

Right when I brought out the word ‘consistent’ to describe Sabathia’s recent performance, he goes out and gives up five runs in a loss against the Orioles. The few that were actually paying attention to him before that start likely deserted him, so I expect him to be under 10% owned tonight. I’m not letting one bad outing cloud my judgment. While he is no longer a high-strikeout pitcher, he has a high ground ball rate and he generates a lot of soft and medium contact. When you put him in favorite strikeout matchups, he becomes viable in DFS. He sees a ballpark bump playing in Citi Field (game was moved because of Hurricane Irma) and he draws an excellent matchup against the Rays, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: People will gravitate to Hammel, Estrada, and Woodruff as SP2s tonight, but I’ll take Sabathia over all three.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 16 Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 10 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 24 5.10 4.58 19.5% 10.0% 29.9% 36.8% 15.1%
L30 6 6.27 4.97 16.7% 14.3% 25.6% 33.3% 12.6%

Odorizzi struck out six batters in six scoreless innings against the Twins in his last start, which was his best outing in months. Once again, I generally don’t get too swayed one way or the other by a single start. While he does have significantly better splits at home, this isn’t actually a home start. The form is also an issue. In his last six starts, he has a 6.27 SIERA with a walk rate of 14%. He has one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball and he is facing a Yankees’ offense that has hit the fifth most home runs (207) this season.

Quick Breakdown: If I’m targeting a pitcher in this game, it’s not going to be Odorizzi.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jake Odorizzi is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters (42% this season). The Yankees are an offense full of right-handed power. This seems like a good spot to look for home run upside, whether you want to stack the Yankees or look at a few of their hitters as one-off targets. Aaron Judge is one of my favorite plays in the slate. He finally seems to be warming up again, posting a .489 xwOBA in the last ten days, which is the third highest of anyone in baseball (minimum of 20 at bats). If Odorizzi struggles to find the strike zone, it could be a long night (or a quick one depending on how you look at it).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.352 0.333 0.195 33.1% 11.3% 18.5% 41.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.349 0.328 0.136 31.6% 12.8% 23.7% 42.9% 1B $4,000 1B/3B $4,000 3B $7,600
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.365 0.359 0.241 35.0% 7.0% 23.9% 45.0% C $3,600 C $4,900 C $9,600
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.360 0.289 0.228 25.8% 4.6% 11.9% 38.3% SS $3,500 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.352 0.309 0.182 30.6% 3.5% 19.7% 47.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
6 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.417 0.421 0.306 43.7% 15.9% 31.4% 36.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
7 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.314 0.337 0.207 29.1% 10.5% 25.1% 47.8% OF $2,800 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
8 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.347 0.340 0.157 26.8% 10.7% 12.9% 45.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
9 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.320 0.338 0.172 29.6% 13.8% 22.3% 37.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,500

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay

The Rays are one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. If you look at their projected lineup below, you can see why. They have seven batters with an xwOBA under .310 and six batters with a strikeout rate of at least 23% against southpaws this season. This is truly an exploitable matchup for CC Sabathia, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. Evan Longoria is my one and only hitter on my radar here. He is 32-for-76 with eight home runs, nine doubles, and 15 walks against Sabathia in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.295 0.250 0.113 26.3% 6.7% 27.5% 60.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Cesar Puello RIGHT 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 75.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,100 RF $4,000
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.277 0.304 0.163 36.4% 11.5% 21.8% 47.3% 3B $3,300 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.344 0.328 0.213 27.5% 13.4% 22.8% 31.3% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
5 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.292 0.331 0.057 38.5% 9.3% 23.7% 46.2% 1B $2,000 3B $2,900 3B $5,700
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.327 0.294 0.146 28.6% 6.7% 13.3% 62.9% C $2,100 C $2,200 C $4,000
7 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.314 0.288 0.193 34.0% 4.8% 14.5% 46.8% SS $2,900 SS $2,900 SS $5,600
8 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.325 0.263 0.200 37.7% 6.6% 26.4% 47.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,200
9 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.226 0.258 0.102 30.5% 7.2% 30.9% 44.8% 2B $2,200 2B $2,900 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET

Pittsburgh Milwaukee
pittsburghmlb Steven Brault milwaukeemlb Brandon Woodruff
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-164 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.285 16.7% 6.9% 6.9% 47.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.310 35.7% 10.5% 15.8% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.399 0.382 37.7% 9.0% 10.5% 36.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.209 0.277 29.7% 8.6% 24.1% 62.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Brault
steven-brault-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 15 of 16 Salary Rank: 15 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 4.86 4.86 17.5% 10.2% 45.1% 25.4% 17.8%
2017 1 5.71 5.79 9.4% 8.3% 40.0% 31.2% 19.5%
L30 1 5.76 6.14 9.0% 7.7% 40.3% 33.3% 20.6%

Brault is making his second start of the season and his ninth in the last two combined. In 20 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.29 FIP with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 9%. I always like to target hitters against young pitchers on the road, especially ones that struggle with their command. Brault is an easy fade against the Brewers, who will likely roll out eight right-handed hitters in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Brault should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Brandon Woodruff
brandon-woodruff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16 Salary Rank: 7 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.49 1.52 20.8% 9.4% 51.6% 32.3% 21.5%
L30 3 4.59 2.08 20.3% 10.1% 57.8% 39.1% 19.6%

Woodruff is going to get some love as an SP2 tonight. He hasn’t pitched bad in his first four starts, although his 1.52 ERA isn’t truly indicative of his skill level. The 4.49 SIERA is a better predictor of what we might see from him moving forward. If you like Woodruff tonight, I’m not going to talk you off of him. Personally, I want a little more strikeout upside from my pitcher. Woodruff had a mediocre k-rate in the minors this season and he’s facing a Pirates’ offense whose one calling card is their low strikeout rate. Seven of their eight projected position players have a k-rate below 20% against righties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Woodruff has pitched well in the majors this season and is a large favorite at home, but I’ll gladly take Sabathia or even Hammel at similar price points.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

If Brandon Woodruff turns into a trendy play tonight in tournaments, I may look to gain some leverage on the field with a few Pirates’ hitters. This offense sees a nice ballpark bump playing in Miller Field and they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his fifth career start. Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Ball, and David Freese all have a .333+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season and they are all dirt cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.348 0.333 0.120 25.9% 6.2% 17.0% 47.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
2 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.321 0.333 0.122 30.6% 8.7% 11.7% 47.3% OF $3,300 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.327 0.337 0.144 32.5% 10.4% 18.2% 44.3% OF $2,800 OF $2,900 RF $5,600
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.362 0.343 0.233 34.3% 11.7% 18.0% 50.9% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.341 0.111 31.3% 11.5% 22.7% 56.2% 3B $2,700 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.313 0.316 0.173 26.2% 7.5% 11.3% 40.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.269 0.270 0.098 25.7% 6.1% 19.2% 51.4% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.308 0.303 0.149 27.8% 9.4% 15.7% 48.4% SS $2,300 SS $2,700 SS $5,200
9 Steven Brault LEFT 0.219 0.180 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% P $5,500 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The sample size is still small (eight starts), but Steven Brault has allowed a .389 wOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in his major league career. The one knock on the Brewers is their high strikeout rate, but we shouldn’t have to worry about that tonight. Brault’s career k-rate is sitting at a paltry 14.5%. The Brewers are one of my favorite contrarian stacks in the slate and we can look to Domingo Santana and Ryan Braun as elite plays in the outfield.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.347 0.279 0.133 33.8% 3.2% 20.4% 50.7% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.372 0.373 0.218 40.5% 14.6% 24.6% 49.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.355 0.419 0.227 51.7% 12.8% 10.3% 43.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.323 0.259 0.214 27.5% 5.7% 27.0% 41.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
5 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.388 0.332 0.226 50.9% 9.6% 29.8% 42.1% 1B $2,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.333 0.328 0.100 44.3% 4.6% 23.0% 32.8% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,200
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.332 0.312 0.244 32.7% 12.2% 34.7% 41.2% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.290 0.269 0.071 28.2% 10.9% 18.2% 49.4% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
9 Brandon Woodruff RIGHT P $6,700 P $7,100 P $14,100

Elite Plays – Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguilar (FD), Manny Pina

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Seattle Texas
seattlemlb Ariel Miranda texasmlb Cole Hamels
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-131 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.305 28.4% 7.5% 17.5% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.302 32.1% 4.0% 15.0% 59.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.320 31.9% 9.4% 21.2% 29.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.332 36.1% 9.3% 15.6% 47.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
ariel-miranda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 12 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16 Salary Rank: 8 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 28 4.88 4.72 20.5% 9.0% 31.8% 31.2% 21.5%
L30 6 5.27 6.07 22.8% 14.0% 26.8% 38.6% 21.7%

Miranda has struggled all season and he comes into tonight’s start in bad form. In his last six outings, he has a 5.27 SIERA with a walk rate of 14% and a hard contact rate of 39%. When he’s not striking batters out, he quickly gets himself into trouble with his walks and hard contact allowed. Even though we like to pick on the Rangers with left-handed pitchers, Miranda is one of the easiest fades in the slate. He is listed as a small underdog pitching on the road in a game that features a total of 10.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Miranda in both cash games and tournaments.

Cole Hamels
cole-hamels-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16 Salary Rank: 4 of 16
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.99 3.32 23.6% 9.1% 49.6% 32.0% 20.4%
2017 19 4.98 4.03 15.5% 8.2% 49.7% 35.2% 13.6%
L30 6 5.47 5.09 15.3% 10.8% 45.9% 28.3% 14.2%

I always love to see when pitchers regress after we spotted the red flags months earlier. The one outlier this season is Andrew Cashner, who continues to defy all odds. We don’t need to talk about Cashner though, as Hamels will be on the mound for Texas tonight. After having a much lower ERA than SIERA all year, we have seen the regression hit hard in his last six starts. During that stretch, he has a 5.47 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 11%. He is an easy fade tonight against the Mariners in what I expect to be a shootout.

Quick Breakdown: I hate playing pitchers with bad supporting stats, especially when they are priced at a premium.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are right up there with the Brewers as my favorite contrarian stack in tonight’s slate. They see a big ballpark upgrade playing in Arlington and they draw a favorable matchup against Cole Hamels. In addition to his low strikeout rate and high walk rate, Hamels has allowed a .332 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. I’m a fan of every right-handed bat in this lineup, but Nelson Cruz deserves the spotlight. On the season, he has a .446 xwOBA with a 41% hard contact rate and a ridiculous 20% walk rate against southpaws. The best part is that he is routinely under-owned in DFS.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.337 0.352 0.070 36.5% 11.3% 13.9% 46.4% SS $3,100 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.276 0.328 0.134 20.8% 6.9% 19.4% 50.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.257 0.305 0.101 29.7% 6.1% 14.1% 53.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,800 2B $9,300
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.369 0.446 0.183 40.7% 20.1% 16.7% 44.2% OF $4,200 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.320 0.296 0.200 29.0% 5.8% 18.2% 32.7% 3B $3,400 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.350 0.353 0.205 38.6% 10.9% 20.9% 44.3% 1B $2,400 1B $3,400 3B $6,800
7 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.365 0.291 0.140 27.8% 6.5% 13.7% 44.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,300 LF $4,500
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.353 0.329 0.260 37.0% 8.3% 36.9% 28.3% C $2,600 C $3,700 C $7,200
9 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.192 0.246 0.045 20.8% 8.2% 19.2% 47.2% 2B $2,100 OF/SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger, Danny Valencia, Mike Zunino

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

I have mixed feelings when it comes to the Rangers tonight. On the one hand, they have the second highest implied total on the board and are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. On the other hand, their lineup has been awful against southpaws all year with the exception of Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo, who are both left-handed. If the Rangers are expected to be a popular stack, I don’t mind fading them in tournaments or just using a few players as one-offs spread throughout your lineups. I’d like to say otherwise, but I don’t see any hitter in this lineup as an elite play, even though this is a great spot for the team as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.351 0.262 0.158 26.1% 11.7% 30.0% 35.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.326 0.337 0.065 23.5% 14.0% 17.8% 59.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.360 0.302 0.238 34.0% 4.5% 15.7% 44.3% SS $3,900 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.256 0.251 0.097 23.8% 4.5% 20.7% 61.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
5 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.320 0.316 0.284 37.7% 11.3% 35.7% 26.2% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
6 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.380 0.398 0.310 46.8% 14.3% 38.1% 23.9% 1B $3,900 1B/3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.197 0.231 0.080 31.1% 2.1% 23.3% 50.0% 2B $3,200 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
8 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.279 0.304 0.120 44.1% 5.6% 31.5% 42.4% OF $2,000 1B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,200
9 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.452 0.363 0.300 36.4% 13.0% 23.2% 34.1% C $3,300 C $3,300 C $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Delino DeShields, Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo, Robinson Chirinos

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious