MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 4th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
 | Jake Junis |  | Artie Lewicki | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| KC -132 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.316 | 0.319 | 35.8% | 6.1% | 19.9% | 46.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.329 | 0.343 | 36.7% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 30.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | ||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jake Junis | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $15,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 10 | 4.35 | 4.41 | 20.7% | 6.5% | 38.4% | 36.3% | 16.6% | |
| L30 | 4 | 3.41 | 2.96 | 24.6% | 1.8% | 37.2% | 25.6% | 19.2% | |
Junis has had what I would call a successful rookie season. He has nice numbers overall and he’s improved in his last four outings, posting a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 2%. We’ve seen quite a few pitchers have success against the Tigers lately, as their offense is a shell of its former self. I won’t go so far as to say Junis is a great play in this slate, but he’s certainly viable against a right-handed heavy Detroit offense.
Quick Breakdown: Junis is still a young pitcher making a road start, but he offers nice upside for the price.
| Artie Lewicki | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,900 | Salary: | $9,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lewicki is making his major league debut today against the Royals. With nothing to play for the rest of the year, many teams will be making call-ups to get a closer look at some of their prospects. Lewicki has spent most of his season at the Double-A level, but he did make five Triple-A starts, posting a 2.83 FIP with a strikeout rate of 27% and a walk rate of 6%. As always, I like to rely on Vegas when it comes to pitching debuts and Lewicki is listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.
Quick Breakdown: For now, I will be taking a wait and see approach with Lewicki.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals draw a boom or bust matchup against Artie Lewicki, who is making his first career major league start. As I often mention in this column, young pitchers have a wider range of outcomes than veterans. More often than not, we see the opposing offense win out, but that’s not always the case. With very little power in this Royals’ offense, I plan to avoid Lewicki and the Royals. Instead, I will be watching from the sidelines.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.296 | 0.165 | 28.3% | 3.3% | 14.5% | 37.2% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,300 |
| 2 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.328 | 0.126 | 31.0% | 7.9% | 17.2% | 45.8% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.331 | 0.339 | 0.128 | 28.6% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 51.9% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.391 | 0.380 | 0.195 | 32.9% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 51.8% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $8,800 |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.330 | 0.225 | 37.7% | 3.1% | 21.0% | 32.3% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
| 6 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.362 | 0.297 | 35.1% | 6.4% | 16.0% | 30.2% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $8,700 |
| 7 | Brandon Moss | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.325 | 0.231 | 36.5% | 10.3% | 33.2% | 31.1% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,600 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.237 | 0.254 | 0.075 | 25.4% | 1.7% | 17.5% | 42.8% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,800 |
| 9 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.243 | 0.278 | 0.099 | 31.5% | 7.5% | 24.8% | 41.1% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,100 | LF | $4,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas
Stackability – YELLOW
Detroit
Jake Junis has pitched well in his rookie season. He has an above-average strikeout rate and he’s been tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .319 xwOBA this season. He’s allowed quite a bit of hard contact, but the Tigers’ offense is ice cold at the moment. If you look at the projected lineup below, you can see that Detroit only has one hitter with an xwOBA of at least .315 against right-handed pitching this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.307 | 0.127 | 34.5% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 35.1% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 2 | Alex Presley | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.301 | 0.090 | 32.7% | 6.2% | 19.9% | 46.7% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,100 | LF | $6,000 |
| 3 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.337 | 0.158 | 45.1% | 6.9% | 24.8% | 38.0% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 4 | Efren Navarro | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.105 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1B/OF | $2,200 | IF/OF | $4,200 | ||
| 5 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.286 | 0.311 | 0.130 | 39.1% | 6.7% | 26.3% | 37.9% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
| 6 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.196 | 0.217 | 0.143 | 26.3% | 0.0% | 31.0% | 36.8% | 3B | $2,000 | 1B/3B | $2,900 | 3B | $5,700 |
| 7 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.312 | 0.162 | 37.1% | 7.3% | 22.8% | 47.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
| 8 | Andrew Romine | LEFT | 0.291 | 0.293 | 0.124 | 25.8% | 7.1% | 18.3% | 44.1% | OF | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $2,800 | IF/OF | $5,400 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.260 | 0.121 | 29.4% | 4.5% | 14.4% | 54.0% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,700 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Efren Navarro (DK & FDRFT), James McCann
Stackability – ORANGE
Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
 | Chase Anderson |  | Homer Bailey | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| MIL-109 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.253 | 30.9% | 7.0% | 25.3% | 34.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.366 | 0.361 | 30.8% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 42.5% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.301 | 0.283 | 33.9% | 8.6% | 22.2% | 39.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.434 | 0.393 | 29.1% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 45.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Chase Anderson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $16,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | 4.68 | 4.39 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 36.1% | 36.6% | 17.2% | |
| 2017 | 19 | 4.23 | 2.96 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 37.3% | 32.6% | 19.1% | |
| L30 | 3 | 4.76 | 3.38 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 32.5% | 29.3% | 22.0% | |
Anderson has improved this season, but he’s still been a hard pitcher to trust in the daily fantasy realm. He draws a tough start today against the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. The Anderson fade is more about the matchup and ballpark than it is about the pitcher. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs.
Quick Breakdown: The Reds are good against right-handed pitching, they don’t strikeout often, and Anderson is facing them in a hitter’s park.
| Homer Bailey | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $11,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 6 | 3.55 | 6.65 | 24.3% | 6.3% | 45.2% | 30.7% | 16.0% | |
| 2017 | 13 | 5.43 | 7.51 | 14.8% | 10.7% | 44.1% | 30.0% | 15.2% | |
| L30 | 5 | 5.58 | 7.83 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 36.8% | 36.6% | 11.3% | |
To put it kindly, Bailey has not pitched well this season. To be blunt, he’s been hot garbage. In 13 starts, he has a 5.43 SIERA (7.51 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He has struggled with his command (11% walk rate) and he has given up a lot of contact. While most right-handed pitchers benefit from facing a right-handed heavy Brewers’ offense, that’s not the case for Bailey. On the season, he has allowed a .393 xwOBA to righties.
Quick Breakdown: Bailey is in awful form and he’s pitching in a home run-friendly ballpark.
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
The Brewers are better against right-handed pitching than they were earlier in the season. The acquisition of Neil Walker has been a plus, as they now have five hitters with an xwOBA of .330+ and an ISO of .195+ against righties. They should be salivating for today’s matchup against Homer Bailey, who is a low strikeout pitcher with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate. He has struggled against batters from both sides of the plate and the Brewers get to face him in a home run-friendly ballpark.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.273 | 0.143 | 36.3% | 7.0% | 30.7% | 56.1% | SS | $3,100 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.360 | 0.359 | 0.203 | 33.2% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 37.2% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.330 | 0.214 | 38.8% | 7.9% | 21.5% | 47.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.360 | 0.265 | 39.9% | 10.4% | 21.4% | 43.1% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.331 | 0.197 | 36.9% | 11.4% | 29.8% | 46.4% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $8,800 |
| 6 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.347 | 0.286 | 41.3% | 14.8% | 27.8% | 38.2% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $4,100 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 7 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.286 | 0.181 | 29.8% | 6.0% | 21.4% | 35.9% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.276 | 0.154 | 28.5% | 4.8% | 19.3% | 51.5% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,400 |
| 9 | Chase Anderson | RIGHT | 0.135 | 0.094 | 0.029 | 12.5% | 0.0% | 54.3% | 53.8% | P | $8,400 | P | $8,600 | P | $16,800 |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Neil Walker, Travis Shaw
Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Eric Thames, Manny Pina
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Cincinnati
From a splits perspective, nothing looks that favorable in a matchup against Chase Anderson. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA. However, he has given up a lot of hard contact and home runs historically, which bodes well for the Reds in a game at home. Vegas sees a potential shootout here and I don’t disagree. Give a slight edge to the right-handed hitters, as Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.292 | 0.253 | 0.087 | 15.7% | 8.4% | 20.3% | 46.1% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
| 2 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.376 | 0.321 | 0.219 | 29.5% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 40.2% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.434 | 0.432 | 0.274 | 38.1% | 19.1% | 11.0% | 37.4% | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $5,000 | 1B | $9,900 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.294 | 0.246 | 33.9% | 5.3% | 27.2% | 30.7% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,400 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.341 | 0.277 | 38.6% | 7.2% | 20.6% | 40.1% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 6 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.349 | 0.214 | 31.0% | 13.2% | 22.0% | 39.5% | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,100 |
| 7 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.368 | 0.270 | 40.0% | 10.2% | 22.4% | 43.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,600 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.316 | 0.330 | 0.118 | 33.8% | 9.6% | 16.4% | 44.3% | C | $2,900 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,200 |
| 9 | Homer Bailey | RIGHT | 0.135 | 0.078 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | P | $5,700 | P | $5,800 | P | $11,600 |
Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall
Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Philadelphia at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
| Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
 | Mark Leiter Jr. |  | Rafael Montero | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYM-130 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.309 | 0.321 | 26.1% | 7.7% | 20.8% | 42.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.294 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 21.0% | 44.9% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.307 | 0.315 | 26.8% | 10.3% | 20.6% | 52.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.378 | 0.330 | 26.4% | 12.3% | 23.2% | 47.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Mark Leiter Jr. | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $15,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 6 | 4.33 | 3.88 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 47.6% | 26.5% | 22.2% | |
| L30 | 3 | 3.44 | 2.57 | 25.0% | 5.4% | 45.3% | 27.6% | 21.1% | |
Leiter has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. For a rookie pitcher, he has shown great control and an ability to induce a lot of soft and medium contact. He draws a favorable matchup today against the Mets, whose lineup looks a lot like a Triple-A lineup these days. Leiter is listed as a small underdog, but he carries some appeal as a low-owned tournament play.
Quick Breakdown: Leiter is a bit too risky to trust as an SP1, but he’s certainly viable as an SP2 in tournaments.
| Rafael Montero | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $14,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 3 | 5.40 | 8.05 | 21.5% | 17.2% | 35.7% | 31.6% | 17.5% | |
| 2017 | 13 | 4.61 | 5.12 | 22.2% | 11.3% | 46.0% | 25.4% | 19.5% | |
| L30 | 6 | 4.43 | 4.15 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 47.4% | 22.5% | 23.5% | |
Montero has a decent strikeout rate (22%), but he usually has too many red flags to trust as anything other than a GPP dart. He has a SIERA of 4.61 on the season with a walk rate of 11%. The good news is that he is facing a Phillies’ offense that has a high strikeout rate (24%) and a low walk rate (7.7%). Philadelphia also has five righties in their projected lineup, which is never bad news for a right-handed pitcher. This is basically the perfect matchup for Montero, which brings him into play.
Quick Breakdown: Montero is still a bit too risky to trust as an SP1, but he’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments and potentially even in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Even though he can be inconsistent at times, there isn’t a lot that stands out when it comes to Rafael Montero other than his high walk rate. He has held left-handed hitters to a .294 xwOBA this season and he has held hitters from both sides of the plate under a 27% hard contact rate. There are plenty of options in today’s slate, which makes the Phillies’ offense a fairly easy fade.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.339 | 0.304 | 0.113 | 23.4% | 10.0% | 20.9% | 50.2% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 2 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.308 | 0.289 | 0.157 | 28.3% | 7.8% | 20.4% | 35.5% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 3 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.330 | 0.213 | 40.0% | 7.8% | 28.1% | 50.5% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $2,600 | LF | $5,100 |
| 4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.422 | 0.344 | 0.333 | 41.7% | 7.7% | 18.5% | 29.2% | OF | $4,600 | 1B/OF | $4,800 | 1B | $9,300 |
| 5 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.306 | 0.177 | 37.2% | 5.3% | 23.2% | 42.7% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $6,000 |
| 6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.303 | 0.161 | 28.7% | 6.5% | 15.9% | 44.3% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $5,400 |
| 7 | Hyun-Soo Kim | LEFT | 0.265 | 0.339 | 0.065 | 27.0% | 8.9% | 17.4% | 45.2% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,800 | IF/OF | $5,400 |
| 8 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.288 | 0.240 | 28.2% | 7.7% | 35.7% | 48.2% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 9 | Mark Leiter Jr. | RIGHT | 0.073 | 0.093 | 0.000 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 41.7% | 85.7% | P | $6,700 | P | $7,600 | P | $15,000 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Mets
The Mets may not have a lot of talent in their lineup right now, but they do offer a nice source of value. I don’t ever start any of my lineups with Mets’ batters, but if I’m in need of some value, this is one of the first lineups that I look to. They draw a mediocre matchup against Mark Leiter Jr., who has allowed a .315+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.280 | 0.283 | 0.141 | 26.6% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 39.2% | SS | $3,100 | 3B/SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,100 |
| 2 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.263 | 0.217 | 0.147 | 22.0% | 1.3% | 32.5% | 50.0% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.335 | 0.153 | 36.6% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 41.9% | 3B | $3,000 | 2B/SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,600 |
| 4 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.335 | 0.109 | 40.9% | 14.7% | 26.7% | 38.6% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,700 | LF | $5,400 |
| 5 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.250 | 0.299 | 0.140 | 34.8% | 4.4% | 15.4% | 38.7% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,200 |
| 6 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.250 | 0.275 | 0.182 | 35.6% | 5.2% | 17.2% | 57.8% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $6,000 |
| 7 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.242 | 0.089 | 27.9% | 4.6% | 21.3% | 54.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,900 | CF | $5,600 |
| 8 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.284 | 0.141 | 22.8% | 6.2% | 13.4% | 54.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,800 | LF | $7,600 |
| 9 | Rafael Montero | RIGHT | 0.117 | 0.149 | 0.000 | 10.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 77.8% | P | $6,200 | P | $7,400 | P | $14,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Brandon Nimmo, Travis d’Arnaud
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
NY Yankees at Baltimore – 2:05 PM ET
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
 | Jordan Montgomery |  | Dylan Bundy | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| BAL-126 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.301 | 0.335 | 21.8% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 45.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 0.339 | 38.7% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 31.1% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.302 | 0.298 | 27.8% | 7.8% | 23.5% | 39.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.287 | 0.287 | 32.4% | 6.0% | 26.6% | 35.2% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jordan Montgomery | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $13,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | 4.29 | 4.15 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 40.7% | 26.9% | 16.9% | |
| L30 | 4 | 4.36 | 4.19 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 37.7% | 34.0% | 20.8% | |
With Jaime Garcia struggling, the Yankees will turn back to rookie Jordan Montgomery. He has pitched well this season, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% in 24 starts. Unfortunately, he draws a difficult matchup against the Orioles in Camden Yards. It always amazes me how people will stick to narratives all season without looking to the numbers to back up the narrative. All season, we’ve heard that the Orioles can’t hit lefties, yet they have the eighth highest team wOBA.
Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.5 runs.
| Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $18,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 14 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 35.9% | 28.0% | 23.6% | |
| 2017 | 25 | 4.42 | 3.94 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 33.1% | 35.6% | 18.0% | |
| L30 | 4 | 2.51 | 2.57 | 36.4% | 4.6% | 38.1% | 40.6% | 14.1% | |
Bundy’s recent hot streak came out of nowhere, but it has certainly turned a few heads. In his last five starts, he has a 2.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36% and a walk rate of 4%. He is coming off of a complete game against the Mariners where he struck out 12 batters. I’m not a fan of his matchup against the Yankees, but there is at least some strikeout potential here. The Yankees’ projected lineup has five batters with at least a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy’s recent form has been incredible. I don’t see him as a cash game play here, but I don’t mind riding the hot streak in GPPs.
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
The Yankees may not be able to catch the Red Sox in the American League East, but in the wildcard, they hold a two-game lead over the Twins and a three and a half game lead over the Angels and Orioles. Today they run into the buzzsaw that is Dylan Bundy. His recent form has been incredible, but it’s worth noting that he has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.338 | 0.201 | 33.8% | 11.5% | 18.0% | 42.1% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.414 | 0.419 | 0.305 | 43.7% | 15.3% | 31.9% | 35.6% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,700 | RF | $9,300 |
| 3 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.361 | 0.243 | 34.9% | 7.0% | 23.9% | 44.5% | C | $3,900 | C | $4,400 | C | $8,400 |
| 4 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.286 | 0.225 | 26.2% | 4.2% | 12.0% | 38.7% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $7,800 |
| 5 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.304 | 0.175 | 31.4% | 3.6% | 19.9% | 49.0% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $8,100 |
| 6 | Greg Bird | LEFT | 0.254 | 0.319 | 0.129 | 39.1% | 13.3% | 28.9% | 33.3% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $5,600 |
| 7 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.330 | 0.139 | 31.9% | 13.0% | 23.2% | 43.2% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B/3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 8 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.333 | 0.152 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 46.0% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
| 9 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.338 | 0.173 | 29.5% | 13.6% | 22.3% | 37.9% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius
Stackability – ORANGE
Baltimore
The Orioles are slight favorites today, but I have very little interest in this game as a whole. It’s hard to trust either pitcher, but I’m not chomping at the bit to throw any of these hitters into my lineups. On the season, Jordan Montgomery has held right-handed hitters to a .298 xwOBA and a 28% hard contact rate. There are better matchups in this slate, but Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop are all viable secondary plays.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.332 | 0.175 | 35.3% | 8.3% | 26.3% | 47.1% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $4,600 | SS | $9,000 |
| 2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.386 | 0.248 | 46.1% | 6.7% | 16.1% | 43.0% | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $5,200 | 3B | $10,000 |
| 3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.407 | 0.372 | 0.308 | 40.0% | 8.3% | 25.0% | 43.2% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,700 |
| 4 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.324 | 0.171 | 33.0% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 41.2% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | CF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.320 | 0.142 | 32.7% | 4.3% | 25.5% | 50.0% | OF | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 6 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.318 | 0.121 | 33.9% | 11.8% | 39.0% | 33.8% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.274 | 0.156 | 29.6% | 5.9% | 22.1% | 42.9% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Welington Castillo | RIGHT | 0.424 | 0.393 | 0.228 | 41.7% | 4.8% | 23.8% | 31.7% | C | $3,300 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,900 |
| 9 | Joey Rickard | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.287 | 0.111 | 30.0% | 5.2% | 17.2% | 29.4% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,300 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
| Cleveland | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||||||||
 | Trevor Bauer |  | James Shields | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| CLE-205 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.356 | 0.346 | 34.6% | 9.7% | 23.0% | 42.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.424 | 0.390 | 33.6% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 39.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.319 | 0.305 | 35.0% | 7.9% | 28.3% | 47.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.300 | 0.321 | 32.5% | 9.3% | 21.9% | 37.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Trevor Bauer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $8,800 | Salary: | $17,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | 4.22 | 4.26 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 48.7% | 31.9% | 19.0% | |
| 2017 | 26 | 3.95 | 4.46 | 25.7% | 8.8% | 45.2% | 34.8% | 15.0% | |
| L30 | 6 | 3.78 | 2.31 | 26.7% | 7.9% | 41.1% | 31.8% | 17.8% | |
Bauer has been sharp in his last six starts, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. The upside has always been there, it’s just been an issue of consistency. He’s shown some of that in this recent stretch of starts. He draws an excellent matchup today against the White Sox, whose offense looks awfully weak at the moment. Their projected lineup only has two hitters with an xwOBA over .305 against right-handed pitching this season.
Quick Breakdown: Bauer is viable as an SP1 in tournaments and an SP2 in all formats.
| James Shields | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 33 | 5.12 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 40.4% | 33.8% | 15.3% | |
| 2017 | 16 | 5.13 | 5.72 | 19.0% | 10.9% | 38.5% | 33.1% | 17.7% | |
| L30 | 5 | 4.29 | 4.76 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 44.2% | 28.2% | 14.1% | |
Shields hasn’t been terrible in his last five starts, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. While the numbers are encouraging, we need to remember that he’s been one of the best pitchers to stack against in each of the last three seasons. Are we supposed to believe that he’s suddenly learned how to pitch again? It’s going to take more than a few starts to make me a believer. I will continue to avoid him in DFS.
Quick Breakdown: Shields is an easy fade today against a talented Indians’ offense.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
The Indians draw one of the best matchups in the slate. On the season, James Shields has an 11% walk rate and has allowed a .390 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .321 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Every hitter in the top seven spots in this order is going to be a viable option in both cash games and tournaments. The Indians are obviously a viable stack in one of the sneakiest hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.318 | 0.324 | 0.201 | 31.7% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 39.5% | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $9,600 |
| 2 | Bradley Zimmer | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.301 | 0.160 | 36.4% | 8.9% | 31.6% | 44.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,000 |
| 3 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.385 | 0.346 | 0.255 | 33.7% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 37.8% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B/3B | $5,300 | IF/OF | $10,200 |
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.397 | 0.276 | 38.6% | 14.4% | 19.8% | 34.4% | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $4,700 | 1B | $9,300 |
| 5 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.373 | 0.284 | 43.0% | 9.5% | 22.0% | 32.6% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.360 | 0.382 | 0.217 | 36.7% | 13.5% | 19.1% | 31.8% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 7 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.384 | 0.347 | 0.291 | 35.3% | 8.2% | 18.8% | 32.8% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,600 |
| 8 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.261 | 0.269 | 0.096 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 26.6% | 39.9% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
| 9 | Giovanny Urshela | RIGHT | 0.243 | 0.277 | 0.034 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 51.9% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $5,400 |
Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Bradley Zimmer, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce
Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Chicago White Sox
With Trevor Bauer being one of the top pitching options in the early slate, we shouldn’t be too excited to roster the White Sox, who have struggled against right-handed pitching all season. Bauer has been in good form, he has an above-average strikeout rate, and the White Sox are listed as huge underdogs at home. Jose Abreu is worth a look as a one-off target in tournaments (10-for-28 lifetime against Bauer), but the rest of this offense can be avoided.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alen Hanson | SWITCH | 0.249 | 0.227 | 0.104 | 20.0% | 4.2% | 19.9% | 50.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B/OF | $3,300 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 2 | Yolmer Sanchez | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.282 | 0.131 | 25.4% | 7.0% | 19.0% | 47.4% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B/3B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.347 | 0.219 | 39.3% | 4.9% | 16.9% | 44.3% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 4 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.350 | 0.172 | 31.4% | 5.7% | 21.4% | 50.8% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,700 |
| 5 | Matt Davidson | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.305 | 0.267 | 42.6% | 4.4% | 42.3% | 35.7% | 3B | $2,500 | 1B/3B | $2,900 | 3B | $5,600 |
| 6 | Kevan Smith | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.285 | 0.094 | 24.5% | 4.3% | 19.1% | 57.3% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,600 | C | $5,200 |
| 7 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.251 | 0.255 | 0.138 | 28.2% | 2.8% | 27.0% | 51.8% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 8 | Rob Brantly | LEFT | 0.175 | 0.114 | 0.000 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,100 | C | $4,200 |
| 9 | Adam Engel | RIGHT | 0.228 | 0.224 | 0.110 | 29.4% | 6.1% | 35.2% | 41.7% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $6,000 |