Sign In Get the App $ $

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 21st

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-04-21 17:19:17

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
Article Image Marcus Stroman Article Image Jordan Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.327 32.6% 9.2% 18.1% 66.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.296 18.4% 7.8% 16.7% 48.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.318 32.2% 6.8% 21.5% 59.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.313 28.7% 8.0% 22.7% 39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4%
2018 3 3.90 7.98 22.2% 13.9% 69.6% 45.7% 17.4%

It’s been a rough start for Marcus Stroman. Through his first three starts, Stroman has yet to go past five innings, and has allowed at least four earned runs in each of those starts. Walks have been an issue (10 through his first 14.2 innings), and that has been the main driver in preventing him from going deep into games. He now has to deal with a Yankees offense that has a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season, although they do have a 22.6% K%. The problem is Stroman hasn’t profiled as a heavy strikeout pitcher during his time in the majors. There aren’t a lot of great options on this early slate but I’d still rather take my chances elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman’s early-season struggles with command are a bit concerning, and given this difficult matchup against the Yankees I prefer to look elsewhere for my pitching.

Jordan Montgomery
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.34 3.88 22.2% 7.9% 40.7% 26.5% 17.9%
2018 3 4.51 4.70 18.2% 9.1% 43.8% 33.3% 16.7%

I love Jordan Montgomery as a pitcher, but I’m a little worried about this matchup against a heavy right-handed lineup in the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays could potentially roll out as many as nine right-handed batters, meaning most of this lineup will have the platoon advantage against Montgomery. If there’s a silver lining for Montgomery, it’s that the Blue Jays do have a 22.7% K% against left-handers this year. Granted, it’s a small sample of a little over 200 plate appearances. I still am a bit worried about this matchup and would only consider Montgomery in tournaments if you absolutely wanted to chase his K upside.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery will likely see a right-handed heavy Blue Jays lineup which is a concern. There is still some strikeout upside here and I would consider Montgomery only in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.341 0.348 0.259 35.4% 7.4% 22.1% 39.0% OF $2,800 1B/2B $3,400 1B $6,500
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.288 0.348 0.250 38.9% 2.9% 44.1% 22.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.405 0.395 0.203 35.8% 12.3% 15.2% 39.0% 1B $4,000 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.265 0.314 0.095 27.8% 9.0% 10.2% 46.6% 3B $3,800 3B $3,900 2B $7,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.421 0.371 0.244 41.9% 6.2% 21.9% 54.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.381 0.338 0.213 31.6% 5.8% 14.5% 40.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.270 0.328 0.111 34.0% 14.6% 29.2% 37.0% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.392 0.440 0.270 26.7% 9.8% 17.1% 40.0% 2B $2,100 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.246 0.255 0.045 23.6% 9.3% 17.3% 38.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,600

Despite Stroman’s early season struggles, he’s generally not someone I want to pick on. You can certainly stack the Yankees and hope Stroman continues to struggle with locating his pitches, but Stroman is not someone who has historically allowed many home runs. He’s been fairly effective over his career against both sides of the plate so there’s not a handedness I’m targeting against him. Aaron Judge profiles as the best play on the Yankees given his ability to launch one at any moment. He’s also 6-for-14 with three home runs against Stroman in his career if you’re a BvP fan. Outside of Judge, guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner are certainly viable if you decide to stack, but I personally prefer stacks in some of these other earlier games (Cardinals and Indians are two that I prefer).

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.357 0.333 0.184 31.5% 11.4% 18.9% 43.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 LF $8,500
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.435 0.442 0.345 43.6% 16.4% 30.2% 35.4% OF $5,300 OF $5,600 RF $10,600
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.374 0.314 0.257 27.8% 6.5% 10.8% 35.6% SS $4,800 SS $5,000 SS $10,200
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.377 0.370 0.304 38.2% 10.6% 27.5% 45.1% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $10,300
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.351 0.381 0.238 36.3% 6.1% 22.2% 43.0% C $3,800 C $4,700 C $9,100
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.360 0.345 0.230 31.0% 16.0% 20.0% 41.9% OF $3,700 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
7 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.348 0.363 0.177 35.3% 12.4% 16.8% 39.3% 1B $2,500 1B/2B $3,300 2B $6,300
8 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.207 0.247 0.081 17.7% 8.6% 28.4% 52.0% 2B $2,000 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.301 0.262 0.099 18.8% 2.5% 12.6% 48.7% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,900

You’ll want right-handers against Montgomery, and you’ll likely have your choice in this Blue Jays lineup. If in the lineup, Steve Pearce is a solid play, although keep in mind he’s always a pinch-hit candidate later in the game so you’re hoping for roughly two to three quality at-bats before he gets lifted. Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Kendrys Morales and Russell Martin are all likely going to be in the middle of this lineup and firmly in-play. Kevin Pillar has also been on a tear lately and should be considered for any stack. I also don’t hate him as a one-off given the way he’s been swinging the bat. Teoscar Hernandez has also been seeing the ball well, but he’s been splitting time with Randal Grichuk so it’s not a given he’s in the lineup.

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, Kevin Pillar, Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
Article Image Danny Duffy Article Image Mike Fiers
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-112 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.212 0.267 23.3% 6.3% 22.8% 47.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.340 30.5% 10.8% 20.5% 41.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.327 32.1% 7.7% 21.7% 36.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.345 30.2% 7.1% 22.8% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.31 3.81 21.4% 6.7% 39.5% 29.8% 17.8%
2018 4 4.17 3.86 25.6% 12.2% 30.4% 35.7% 7.1%

Duffy is coming off a dominant six inning, eight strikeout game against the Blue Jays, but will now face a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup on just three days rest. Duffy threw 100 pitches in his last outing so that combined with the short rest is something of a concern. Duffy does have a 25.6% K% to start the season though and despite the Tigers having a heavy right-handed lineup, they don’t possess a lot of power.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy profiles more as a tournament option on this slate considering he’s coming off three days rest and will face a right-handed heavy Tigers offense.

Mike Fiers
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.52 5.22 21.8% 9.2% 42.9% 30.1% 20.1%
2018 2 3.43 3.86 20.4% 4.1% 52.8% 33.3% 22.2%

At this point in his career, you kind of know what you’re getting with Mike Fiers. Fiers is a pitcher who has some strikeout ability, but has dealt with home run issues through his last few seasons. Since 2015, Fiers has allowed 24 or more home runs per season and is coming off a performance where he just allowed two to Aaron Hicks (granted, one was an inside-the-parker but it still counts!). The good news for Fiers is that he now faces a Royals team that is among the bottom-five in the league in homers against right-handers, and is batting just .214. Because of the matchup, Fiers is a borderline SP2.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers has home run issues but gets to face a Royals team lacking in power, making him an intriguing SP2 option.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.329 0.328 0.096 29.1% 8.0% 18.0% 46.2% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $5,500
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.324 0.322 0.155 30.8% 4.8% 13.8% 38.1% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,300
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.365 0.373 0.276 35.1% 6.3% 15.3% 31.6% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
4 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.364 0.376 0.290 42.4% 13.3% 24.9% 28.0% 1B $2,300 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.251 0.298 0.061 31.1% 7.8% 21.1% 42.2% 1B $2,300 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,400
6 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.306 0.338 0.164 34.0% 9.0% 22.4% 47.6% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 RF $4,500
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.276 0.277 0.127 30.5% 6.5% 21.1% 46.3% 2B $2,000 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.252 0.266 0.098 25.6% 2.3% 15.8% 41.5% SS $2,500 SS $2,600 SS $4,900
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.263 0.266 0.083 25.5% 5.7% 22.9% 30.3% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,900

Duffy has had issues with right-handed bats, and the Tigers will throw a bunch at him. Miguel Cabrera and Nicholas Castellanos would be my favorite of the bunch, while I’m okay with a James McCann punt if you need some savings. While I haven’t been a fan of stacking the Tigers this season and they aren’t my favorite stack on this slate, I don’t think it’s crazy to throw one together if you’re playing multiple lineups in case Duffy isn’t as effective on three days rest. The problem is just that your stack will include some lesser known players.

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nicholas Castellanos

Secondary Plays – James McCann

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.261 0.262 0.200 20.0% 6.1% 15.2% 50.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,900
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.324 0.270 0.114 40.9% 5.3% 34.2% 50.0% 3B $3,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,300
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.379 0.409 0.160 45.5% 14.5% 23.4% 35.1% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.387 0.410 0.295 45.5% 6.4% 16.0% 43.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.274 0.279 0.070 31.8% 6.5% 14.0% 52.9% C $2,500 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.413 0.467 0.284 38.7% 9.0% 13.1% 35.5% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $4,800
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.289 0.275 0.167 28.6% 6.3% 43.8% 42.9% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,700
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.279 0.285 0.091 27.5% 5.7% 8.5% 43.3% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,900
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.202 0.279 0.019 27.1% 6.6% 14.8% 50.0% 2B $2,700 2B $3,200 SS $6,300

Since Mike Fiers does have home run problems, you could chase some of the power bats in this Royals lineup and hope one of them cranks one out. The problem is there aren’t many power bats to choose from. Mike Moustakas and Lucas Duda are you best one-off options. Outside of those two, I don’t have much interest in anyone else, and I’m not a fan of stacking this team.

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – Lucas Duda

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Cincinnati St. Louis
Article Image Homer Bailey Article Image Carlos Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-220 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.368 30.6% 12.0% 13.9% 43.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.320 35.0% 10.8% 22.2% 51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.369 0.390 35.9% 7.5% 18.1% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.264 29.8% 6.8% 28.9% 52.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.19 6.43 16.0% 10.0% 44.6% 31.0% 16.5%
2018 4 4.63 3.42 16.5% 8.3% 41.4% 43.1% 16.7%

I have no idea how he’s doing it or what he did with the real Homer Bailey, but this 2018 version of Homer Bailey is actually…serviceable? Bailey was just dreadful last season, allowing 112 hits over 91 innings and letting batters bat .309 against him for the season. Through three starts this season, Bailey has a 3.42 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, so he’s been limiting the hits. I’m still refusing to buy that he’s good again, but perhaps he’s not the gas can I’m making him out to be. While he did neutralize this Cardinals team a few days ago allowing just four hits over seven innings, I’m not going to chase that outing. His K% is also just at 16.5% so even though he’s limiting damage, he’s not over-powering them with strikeout stuff.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey is looking sharper this season than last, but I’m still hesitant to think he’s returned to form and his strikeout rate isn’t high enough for me. I’m planning to fade.

Carlos Martinez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,200 Salary: $21,100
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.85 3.64 25.3% 8.3% 51.3% 32.1% 19.4%
2018 4 3.77 1.75 27.5% 12.8% 56.7% 36.1% 24.6%

Martinez dominated the Reds in his last outing, striking out 11 batters over seven scoreless innings. The Reds have struggled this season against righties, currently sporting a wRC+ of 68 and a 24.7% K%. Martinez also now gets to face them on his home turf and away from the dangerous Great American Ballpark. Martinez is my favorite pitcher on the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez is my top pitcher on the early slate and an option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.291 0.256 0.084 15.1% 9.3% 21.1% 48.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.273 0.285 0.075 20.1% 3.3% 14.5% 43.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $5,600
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.420 0.434 0.233 36.1% 18.1% 10.0% 36.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.303 0.292 0.210 31.8% 5.4% 27.9% 31.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.379 0.347 0.236 37.6% 6.2% 20.5% 39.4% 2B $3,100 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.333 0.338 0.146 34.0% 10.6% 15.8% 41.8% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,900
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.333 0.357 0.269 39.8% 9.5% 24.0% 44.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
8 Alex Blandino RIGHT 0.060 0.252 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 40.0% 3B $2,100 3B $3,000 3B $5,500
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.188 0.127 0.033 14.3% 0.0% 41.7% 80.0% P $6,500 P $5,400 P $11,000

If you think Bailey can keep up his ability to limit damage and prefer to avoid the Cardinals, I understand where you’re coming from. I’m still willing to play some Cardinals and don’t even mind a stack here if I get the sense the industry isn’t very high on them. Dexter Fowler, Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter and Marcell Ozuna would be the bats I’d prioritize first, while Jose Martinez, Paul DeJong and Yadier Molina are fine to include if you do roll out a stack.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.360 0.358 0.232 36.5% 13.1% 21.8% 37.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.392 0.371 0.191 35.3% 12.8% 22.4% 51.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,500 CF $8,900
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.372 0.387 0.233 43.4% 18.0% 20.2% 25.2% 3B $3,300 2B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.391 0.372 0.253 40.5% 8.3% 22.6% 45.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,500
5 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.355 0.399 0.162 35.9% 9.4% 17.7% 46.3% 1B $4,100 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,600
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.314 0.325 0.146 34.6% 5.2% 14.2% 45.1% C $3,300 C $3,500 C $6,600
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.351 0.343 0.234 36.4% 3.4% 28.9% 32.0% SS $3,900 SS $3,700 SS $7,300
8 Greg Garcia LEFT 0.338 0.318 0.093 16.7% 12.7% 20.6% 48.8% 2B $3,500 3B/SS $2,800 3B $5,700
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.111 0.133 0.000 9.5% 1.6% 31.3% 82.9% P $9,800 P $11,200 P $21,100

I would prefer not picking on Carlos Martinez, who is my top pitching option in the early slate. The only case that can be made for playing any Reds is knowing Martinez will be popular, so any bats or a Reds stack against him will be low-owned and contrarian. If you decide to be contrarian for the sake of getting a low-owned stack, I would prioritize the lefties of Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett. You can also throw in Adam Duvall for some power upside.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto

Stackability – RED

Cleveland at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

Cleveland Baltimore
Article Image Mike Clevinger Article Image Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.351 34.3% 11.8% 25.5% 35.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.456 0.432 37.5% 19.6% 10.4% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.289 32.1% 11.4% 27.1% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.401 0.396 37.8% 5.7% 15.1% 34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Clevinger
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,100 Salary: $19,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6%
2018 3 4.10 2.70 20.6% 8.8% 47.9% 25.0% 27.1%

Clevinger ran into some trouble in his last game but the numbers still look good overall. His ERA sits at 2.70 but his BABIP is .340, so perhaps he’s been a bit unlucky. He now gets to face an Orioles team with a wRC+ of 71 against right-handed pitchers and who lead the majors with a 28.3% K%. If you aren’t paying up for Carlos Martinez as your starting pitcher on FanDuel, the most logical pivot off Martinez is to Clevinger. On multi-pitcher sites, I don’t even mind trying to pair the two together if you can find enough value bats.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is a fine play as he faces a strikeout-prone Orioles team. Clevinger is my second favorite pitcher on the early slate right behind Carlos Martinez.

Chris Tillman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 5.76 7.84 14.2% 11.5% 39.5% 37.7% 16.3%
2018 3 7.27 11.91 4.6% 15.4% 39.2% 37.3% 13.7%

Chris Tillman should not be in the major leagues. His WHIP is approaching 3 and he has a 4.6% K% this season as he’s not fooling anyone.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats (unless you’re playing a lowball contest, in which case you will want to include him on your team because he’s that bad).

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.340 0.362 0.236 33.7% 8.2% 13.9% 39.3% SS $4,400 SS $4,900 SS $9,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.292 0.310 0.179 33.3% 7.0% 20.4% 33.5% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.388 0.356 0.268 31.3% 9.7% 10.4% 37.7% 3B $4,300 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,200
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.365 0.372 0.182 39.4% 9.8% 13.2% 48.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,300
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.370 0.393 0.261 37.7% 12.9% 19.7% 34.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.373 0.386 0.227 35.6% 13.9% 22.3% 34.7% 1B $2,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,300
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.268 0.291 0.132 28.2% 10.0% 28.9% 51.4% C $2,000 C $3,100 C $5,800
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.258 0.267 0.089 36.6% 6.6% 26.2% 56.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,400
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.301 0.301 0.152 37.6% 8.1% 33.1% 44.6% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,800

The Indians will likely be the chalk offense on the early slate because they face Chris Tillman, and I’m not going to argue against it. You can always make a case to fade a chalk offense in case they bust at high ownership, but Chris Tillman is so awful this season that it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Indians don’t put some runs on the board. Everyone on the Indians is firmly in play. I would prioritize the likely top-six of Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso. In tournaments if you want to be contrarian you could play Alonso over Encarnacion at lower ownership. Or you could stack the bottom half of this lineup at lower ownership. Everyone is an option here.

Elite Plays – Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Bradley Zimmer

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.360 0.361 0.211 34.0% 7.0% 22.4% 50.2% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
2 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.380 0.376 0.167 31.6% 14.3% 25.4% 36.8% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $3,000 1B $5,400
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.324 0.360 0.191 36.2% 8.1% 17.3% 42.0% SS $5,100 SS $5,100 3B $10,000
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.329 0.321 0.188 30.8% 3.2% 19.1% 44.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 CF $8,500
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.313 0.341 0.223 42.1% 12.5% 34.5% 39.4% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.315 0.310 0.162 38.6% 5.3% 29.9% 50.0% 2B $3,000 3B $3,000 SS $5,600
7 Luis Sardinas SWITCH 0.130 0.175 0.000 9.5% 6.5% 25.8% 66.7% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,600 SS $4,600
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.265 0.249 0.124 25.3% 3.2% 29.8% 47.2% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,500
9 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.283 0.263 0.154 34.9% 1.9% 18.5% 30.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 LF $5,700

I respect Clevinger enough where I’m not going to go out of my way to play bats against him. If you absolutely must roster Orioles, I would likely target the left-handed power bats of Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez, and Manny Machado is always in play.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Pedro Alvarez, Chris Davis, Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Philadelphia
Article Image Steven Brault Article Image Aaron Nola
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.293 20.0% 8.3% 15.0% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.304 29.6% 10.0% 20.8% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.376 40.9% 9.9% 13.7% 41.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.259 26.6% 4.8% 29.8% 52.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Brault
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.23 4.67 14.2% 8.6% 40.8% 33.3% 21.1%
2018 3 5.24 4.74 13.8% 11.3% 48.3% 40.7% 27.1%

I’m a bit worried about the numbers Steven Brault is allowing. He has an 11.3% BB% and a 40.7% Hard Hit %. Right-handers continue to hit him well and the Phillies will likely have a lineup full of them. Given his numbers and the ballpark, I’ll sit on the sidelines for this Brault start.

Quick Breakdown: Brault continues to deal with walks and struggles with righties, so he’s not someone I will pursue.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,500
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6%
2018 4 4.62 2.22 16.1% 9.7% 50.8% 17.7% 25.0%

I love Aaron Nola and it’s encouraging to see him finally reach the 100 pitch mark in his last outing after Coach Gabe Kapler limited him in his previous starts, but I don’t think this is the best spot for him. The Pirates have just a 19.1% K% against right-handers and while they are fairly league-average in terms of power, they could do just enough to limit Nola’s upside.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is a fine tournament play but I worry a bit about his strikeout upside here against a Pirates team that makes a lot of contact against right-handed pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.322 0.332 0.139 29.2% 8.3% 12.0% 48.3% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.317 0.339 0.182 29.4% 8.3% 13.1% 39.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,500 RF $8,900
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.365 0.338 0.150 26.9% 7.5% 17.2% 46.9% OF $4,300 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.340 0.329 0.202 32.7% 10.8% 20.3% 52.3% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.339 0.334 0.219 34.9% 5.8% 22.2% 37.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 LF $7,400
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.326 0.338 0.134 34.4% 10.5% 19.9% 47.4% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,800
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.342 0.394 0.140 40.9% 8.9% 12.5% 38.6% 3B $2,900 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.311 0.304 0.148 27.8% 9.4% 15.6% 47.1% SS $2,600 SS $2,500 SS $5,100
9 Steven Brault LEFT 0.213 0.206 0.071 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 69.2% P $6,400 P $5,200 P $10,100

While I may not roster Aaron Nola, I don’t really want to pick on someone as talented as him. Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell and Corey Dickerson would be my primary targets because they’ll hold the platoon advantage and possess some power, but I don’t think this is a great spot for the Pirates.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.362 0.358 0.168 25.0% 12.9% 11.3% 61.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.330 0.342 0.162 30.3% 12.9% 8.9% 49.8% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,700
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.324 0.307 0.165 30.7% 3.9% 23.9% 50.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,700
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.428 0.460 0.429 50.0% 28.8% 19.2% 33.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,400 1B $10,600
5 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.452 0.474 0.400 37.5% 9.1% 18.2% 25.0% SS $3,700 3B/OF $4,100 SS $8,000
6 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.353 0.362 0.276 38.0% 12.1% 18.2% 45.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 LF $6,700
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.192 0.209 0.047 24.0% 8.5% 38.3% 60.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,900
8 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.205 0.281 0.037 5.9% 20.6% 29.4% 35.3% SS $2,400 SS $3,300 SS $6,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.125 0.125 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 100.0% P $8,400 P $10,600 P $20,500

This matchup sets up well for several of the Phillies’ right-handed bats. The most obvious one is Rhys Hoskins, who has a career 1.016 OPS against left-handed pitching. Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco (or Scott Kingery if he starts) and Aaron Altherr are also options to consider. A stack here is very viable in case Brault’s control problems persist and he gets himself into trouble via walks.

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco or Scott Kingery (whichever starts), Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS