MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 18th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-08-18 20:23:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Toronto								NY Yankees
			Sean Reid-Foley							Luis Severino
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-265							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.418	0.556	75.0%	3.38	21.4%	0.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.312	34.1%	0.68	28.8%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.291	50.0%	0.00	0.0%	75.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.312	32.5%	1.22	26.9%	41.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sean Reid-Foley
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,600	Salary:			$5,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			27 of 30	Salary Rank:			27 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	1	6.17	5.40	13.6%	13.6%	37.5%	62.5%	12.5%	94.0	12.4%
	L14	1	6.17	5.40	13.6%	13.6%	37.5%	62.5%	12.5%	94.0	12.4%

Sean Reid-Foley was a chalky SP2 option in his debut last week in Kansas City, and it went about as expected. He struggled with his command and got knocked around by the Royals. The right-hander pitched well at Triple-A this season (27.4% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate), but the big leagues are a different story. Reid-Foley has some pedigree as one of the better prospects in the Jays’s system, but today he has the misfortune of facing the Yankees in the Bronx. Reid-Foley may be playable in the right spots, but this isn’t one of them.

Quick Breakdown: Reid-Foley is an easy fade in New York.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,400	Salary:			$10,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			2 of 30	Salary Rank:			3 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%	97.6	13.0%
	2018	25	3.30	3.27	27.7%	5.9%	41.9%	33.2%	19.8%	97.7	12.3%
	L14	3	3.99	5.94	21.6%	5.4%	33.3%	27.8%	13.0%	97.3	11.2%

Save for one decent start against the White Sox, Luis Severino has been in poor form of late. He’s allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of his last 6 outings overall, and his strikeout rate has dipped to 20.8% over said 6 starts. On the season, he has an excellent K-rate of 27.7% along with low walks and manageable hard contact allowed. Severino has largely excellent against right-handed hitters in his career, and today he’ll take on a Jays lineup laden with righties. Toronto also has the 10th-highest strikeout rate as a team against right-handers this season. I’m concerned with Severino’s form, but I expect him to turn it around at some point. This is a decent bounce-back spot for Sev.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is a good play today despite the shoddy recent form.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Severino hasn’t been good lately, but he’s still not a pitcher I want to go out of my way to target with bats. I suppose you can take a flier on a power lefty like Justin Smoak, Curtis Granderson or Kendrys Morales here, but I’d reserve them strictly for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.350	0.193	38.8%	12.2%	27.0%	32.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.313	0.117	29.7%	5.9%	21.0%	55.2%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.413	0.253	38.3%	16.3%	24.7%	30.9%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.435	0.190	46.0%	13.2%	19.8%	44.2%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.362	0.218	40.2%	7.3%	29.5%	35.8%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.344	0.252	35.3%	5.4%	24.1%	38.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.262	0.300	30.0%	0.0%	9.1%	40.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.354	0.190	33.8%	3.4%	10.7%	42.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.254	0.042	50.0%	3.8%	34.6%	46.7%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.343	0.195	38.0%	7.5%	22.3%	40.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

NY Yankees

Reid-Foley has some strikeout potential, but until he finds his footing at the big league level I think he’s someone we can attack. Yankee Stadium is obviously not a particularly friendly setting for pitchers. The Yanks may be short-handed without Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, but this is still one of the top offenses on the board. Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar are viable in all formats as individuals or as a part of a stack. I’ll also mention Brett Gardner and Greg Bird as secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.298	0.142	26.4%	11.6%	15.3%	50.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.326	0.216	36.6%	7.8%	31.2%	48.9%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.375	0.196	38.0%	15.4%	18.8%	43.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.347	0.222	37.6%	9.3%	12.4%	35.1%	SS	$3,800	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.357	0.219	37.7%	3.8%	17.3%	47.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
6	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.363	0.229	37.3%	7.9%	25.3%	31.5%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.321	0.192	41.9%	9.0%	25.4%	32.0%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.354	0.113	39.1%	10.3%	21.8%	38.3%	2B	$2,200	1B/2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.333	0.191	38.2%	7.5%	21.9%	46.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.342	0.191	37.0%	9.2%	21.0%	41.5%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Brett Gardner

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Cleveland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Cleveland
			Alex Cobb							Adam Plutko
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-210							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.340	34.2%	1.14	18.4%	44.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.446	0.440	43.3%	3.57	9.4%	28.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.361	0.350	31.5%	1.63	12.6%	56.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.266	0.283	30.8%	1.50	24.1%	27.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$4,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 30	Salary Rank:			30 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%	91.7	6.7%
	2018	22	4.53	5.31	15.5%	6.0%	50.4%	32.8%	21.8%	91.9	7.6%
	L14	2	4.28	1.29	17.9%	7.1%	53.7%	26.2%	38.1%	91.8	10.1%

Alex Cobb is a cheap guy we can play in certain matchups. Unfortunately, a road game in Cleveland is not one of those matchups. The veteran has a mediocre strikeout rate of 15.5% on the year and he has conceded 32.9% hard hits. Cobb’s ground ball rate over 50% is solid, and his 4.53 SIERA is more favorable than his bloated 5.31 ERA. Again, though, there is way more downside than upside with him today in Cleveland against the Tribe.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb is an easy fade against the Indians.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Adam Plutko
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			22 of 30	Salary Rank:			23 of 30	Salary Rank:

	2018	6	5.04	4.75	16.9%	6.4%	28.0%	37.1%	18.2%	91.2	8.0%

Adam Plutko will be drawing a spot start today for Cleveland in place of the injured Trevor Bauer. The right-hander has pitched in 9 games at the big league level this season, including 6 starts. The first couple of outings were strong, but his underlying numbers indicate he was more lucky than good in those starts. Plutko has a 16.9% strikeout rate in the majors on the year and he has allowed a hard-hit rate over 37%. He is also a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher, and we know hard-hit fly balls have a way of turning into homers. Plutko has already allowed 11 of those in 41.2 innings this season. The matchup with the Orioles and his price tag make him somewhat appealing as a cheap SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, but I’d say he’s only playable in GPPs. If you’re doing an all-day slate, he’s an easy fade

Quick Breakdown: Even with the Orioles on the other side I don’t have much interest in Plutko.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Adam Plutko isn’t good, but neither are the Orioles. While the team as a whole is pretty pathetic, I do think you can play some Baltimore hitters against a hittable righty today. Jonathan Villar makes plenty of sense, especially since he’s typically cheap and hits near the top of the lineup. Ditto for Renato Nunez if he gets a favorable lineup spot. I do think this is a spot in which we can target the hated Chris Davis, as Plutko has shown a pretty big vulnerability to left-handed bats. Trey Mancini, Tim Beckham and Mark Trumbo are in play but not necessarily core options here. This is a rare slate in which I think stacking Baltimore is viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.326	0.267	28.6%	11.8%	5.9%	42.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.274	0.088	29.4%	7.5%	27.2%	62.8%	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.379	0.185	37.6%	8.3%	23.8%	48.6%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.358	0.197	41.9%	6.9%	25.1%	37.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.311	0.145	37.3%	8.6%	36.2%	40.3%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.340	0.171	37.7%	9.0%	21.8%	42.3%	3B	$2,600	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.296	0.137	29.5%	6.3%	26.0%	47.4%	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.333	0.209	31.9%	8.4%	14.7%	34.7%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.276	0.158	28.7%	3.9%	26.8%	43.5%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.321	0.173	33.6%	7.9%	23.1%	44.5%

Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Renato Nunez, Trey Mancini, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Alex Cobb isn’t really the gas can we saw early in the year, but he’s still a hittable right-hander facing the Indians. I don’t need to tell you which Indians to play here, but feel free to roll with Jose Ramirez and/or Francisco Lindor and/or Michael Brantley if you have the funds. Cobb has been fairly neutral from a splits perspective over the course of his career, so you can target him with anyone. Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis are fine if you’re looking at some cheaper Indians, while Yandy Diaz is an acceptable pivot if you can’t get all the way up to Ramirez at third. Stacking the Indians is rarely a bad strategy.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.406	0.281	43.1%	10.1%	16.6%	33.8%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,800	N/A	N/A
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.404	0.188	44.3%	8.7%	8.1%	43.7%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.423	0.379	39.8%	18.1%	11.6%	29.4%	3B	$5,000	3B	$6,000	N/A	N/A
4	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.554	0.077	66.7%	0.0%	7.7%	33.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.383	0.209	38.9%	9.1%	19.9%	37.3%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.334	0.110	38.9%	5.4%	12.6%	43.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.349	0.131	37.3%	10.4%	17.9%	35.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.297	0.153	42.1%	4.7%	28.3%	34.9%	C	$2,800	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.271	0.079	40.9%	5.3%	18.4%	45.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.380	0.179	43.6%	8.0%	15.7%	37.4%

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis, Yandy Diaz, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Houston								Oakland
			Dallas Keuchel							Trevor Cahill
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-100							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.270	25.8%	0.84	24.6%	63.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.310	42.3%	0.47	26.7%	48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.316	28.2%	0.88	15.8%	53.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	0.344	42.2%	0.86	22.4%	57.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dallas Keuchel
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			6 of 30	Salary Rank:			12 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	23	3.61	2.90	21.4%	8.1%	66.8%	24.7%	25.4%	88.7	10.9%
	2018	25	3.98	3.43	17.6%	6.1%	55.0%	27.8%	23.7%	89.2	8.6%
	L14	2	3.38	1.38	19.6%	5.9%	62.2%	27.0%	18.9%	89.5	10.1%

Dallas Keuchel is basically the black sheep of the Astros rotation because he’s the only starter they have that doesn’t rack up strikeouts. Instead, he makes his money by generating soft-hit ground balls. It’s not a great fantasy trait, but Keuchel is routinely underpriced given his skill level. He has an uninspiring 17.6% strikeout rate this year, but he doesn’t walk anybody and his hard contact rate of 27.8% is excellent. Today’s matchup with a powerful Oakland lineup isn’t exactly ideal, but the A’s have struck out at a 22.7% clip against lefties this year. The Coliseum is also a favorable park for pitchers. Given his super cheap price tag, Keuchel is a solid SP2 option on the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Keuchel is a strong play on multi-pitcher sites.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Cahill
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			14 of 30	Salary Rank:			10 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	14	4.43	4.93	22.8%	11.8%	55.6%	28.9%	22.4%	90.9	11.0%
	2018	14	3.59	3.39	24.4%	7.5%	53.9%	42.3%	10.3%	91.7	13.2%
	L14	2	3.00	3.38	28.3%	4.4%	44.8%	46.7%	6.7%	92.5	14.4%

Trevor Cahill checks plenty of boxes. His 24.4% strikeout rate looks solid, as does his 53.9% ground ball rate and 3.59 SIERA. The 42.3% hard contact rate sounds the alarm, though, and today he’ll be facing an Astros lineup that is starting to get healthy. A guy with his skill set is always going to carry appeal, especially since he’s somewhat cheap, but there’s an awful lot of downside in this matchup. Houston is a low-strikeout team with plenty of pop. I won’t talk you out of playing Cahill in tournaments, but I’d prefer Keuchel among the starters in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Cahill isn’t the worst play on the board, but there’s plenty of risk here.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

I’m a believer in Trevor Cahill talent, but he’s had his fair share of blowup outings and we know the Astros are capable of ending a pitcher’s day in a hurry. I don’t think an Astros stack is necessary here, but you can pick your spots with some of their hitters considering they’re cheaper than usual. George Springer, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman are all about $1,000 cheaper than we’re used to seeing on DraftKings, so I think you can play them as one-offs. The lefties (Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Tony Kemp) are fine enough, but all are more GPP darts than they are primary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.350	0.171	33.2%	10.8%	18.0%	47.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.397	0.217	38.3%	12.3%	13.4%	37.9%	3B	$4,100	3B/SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.331	0.220	30.2%	10.0%	25.9%	47.2%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.310	0.108	31.0%	10.6%	16.1%	37.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.318	0.235	40.1%	7.5%	25.9%	34.4%	C	$3,000	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.281	0.123	29.6%	2.8%	9.8%	52.2%	1B	$2,700	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.317	0.148	32.8%	12.2%	25.2%	42.6%	2B	$3,000	OF/SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Kyle Tucker	LEFT	0.348	0.048	36.4%	8.7%	19.6%	45.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
9	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.258	0.116	28.8%	4.0%	24.7%	42.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.323	0.154	33.4%	8.8%	19.8%	43.1%

Elite Plays – Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Reddick

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland

Dallas Keuchel isn’t a pitcher you’ll typically want to be stacking against. The lefty is slightly more vulnerable against right-handed hitters, but I don’t think the A’s are a team worth targeting in cash games today. Guys like Matt Chapman, Khris Davis and Stephen Piscotty make for decent tournament options, but this isn’t a spot in which I think loading up on the A’s makes much sense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.342	0.209	38.5%	10.3%	19.5%	36.9%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
2	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.317	0.195	46.0%	9.1%	23.5%	42.5%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.353	0.135	46.7%	8.2%	19.9%	32.0%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.363	0.246	47.4%	12.0%	29.3%	40.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.358	0.325	40.4%	7.5%	22.4%	35.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.343	0.116	45.9%	7.9%	23.6%	37.6%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.377	0.161	34.0%	10.6%	19.0%	49.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.372	0.182	57.3%	10.4%	28.0%	45.9%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.320	0.108	35.0%	10.4%	14.2%	40.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.349	0.186	43.5%	9.6%	22.2%	40.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Philadelphia
			Jacob deGrom							Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-100							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	0.274	25.9%	0.59	30.3%	41.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.345	28.6%	0.97	17.3%	50.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.201	0.242	31.6%	0.33	32.4%	47.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.271	0.298	26.7%	0.70	17.7%	55.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,600	Salary:			$13,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:			1 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	24	2.90	1.81	31.3%	5.8%	44.3%	28.7%	25.6%	95.6	14.9%
	L14	3	2.12	1.74	39.7%	5.1%	39.0%	27.9%	30.2%	96.1	14.3%

Jacob deGrom has been one of the few bright spots this season for the Mets. The right-hander boasts a stellar 31.3% strikeout rate, and his soft contact rate (25.6%) is impressively nearly as high as his hard contact rate (28.7%). His 2.90 SIERA indicates there’s some luck in that 1.81 ERA, but but marks are elite. While deGrom does get a park downgrade today going from Citi Field to Citizens Bank Park, the matchup helps make up for that. The Phillies have the third-highest strikeout rate as a team (25.4%) on the season against right-handed pitching. DeGrom has one of the longer leashes in baseball, to boot. You aren’t getting him at any sort of discount, but he’s worth spending up on today. DeGrom is easily the best pitching option of the day.

Quick Breakdown: Play deGrom today in Philly.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jake Arrieta
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			12 of 30	Salary Rank:			15 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.15	3.53	23.1%	7.8%	45.1%	29.4%	20.0%	92.1	8.7%
	2018	23	4.37	3.33	17.5%	7.7%	53.2%	27.5%	19.0%	92.9	7.1%
	L14	2	4.51	3.46	15.7%	7.8%	60.5%	18.0%	18.0%	93.2	5.8%

While I love deGrom today, I also have plenty of interest in his mound opponent. Jake Arrieta has seen his strikeouts plummet to just 17.5% on the season, but he’s done well in terms of limiting hard contact (27.5%) and keeping the ball on the ground (53.2%). While his 4.37 SIERA is quite a bit worse than his 3.33 ERA, Arrieta has still only allowed 12 homers in his 23 starts and his blow-up starts have been few and far between. The Mets’ offense isn’t a complete doormat, but it’s not great by any means. At his price point Arrieta is an elite option on the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta is right there with Keuchel as the best cheap options on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Jake Arrieta isn’t someone I typically want to go out of my way to attack, but he has been a bit more vulnerable against left-handed hitters. Arrieta has yielded a .331 wOBA with 6 homers on the year against LHBs. So, I kinda like the mini-stack of Mets lefties for tournaments. That means Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil stand out as appealing options. Brandon Nimmo is also in play if he returns to the lineup. While I prefer the Mets’ offense to the Phillies’ offense today, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.284	0.119	28.8%	5.4%	19.6%	50.6%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.327	0.143	34.5%	5.6%	9.7%	36.4%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.354	0.173	39.7%	16.0%	22.7%	38.2%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.323	0.209	37.8%	7.2%	10.1%	34.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.352	0.188	45.7%	9.7%	20.6%	35.2%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.295	0.165	37.3%	8.3%	35.3%	40.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.353	0.170	41.4%	16.0%	29.6%	31.5%	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
8	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.301	0.159	30.9%	8.0%	18.6%	32.4%	C	$2,400	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.211	0.034	0.0%	6.3%	28.1%	41.2%	P	$11,600	P	$13,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.311	0.151	32.9%	9.2%	21.6%	37.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo (if back in the lineup)

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies get Jacob deGrom today, which means I’ll be fading said Phillies. Lefties have had a bit more success, but he’s still held them to a .283 wOBA on the year. Punting on a cheap Justin Bour or Carlos Santana could pay off in tournaments, but you’re going to want to look elsewhere for most of your bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.319	0.122	22.8%	14.4%	21.8%	41.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.384	0.278	37.7%	11.4%	24.7%	29.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.364	0.240	44.4%	7.6%	22.4%	38.9%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.380	0.223	34.3%	7.9%	22.8%	41.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.366	0.176	35.1%	19.3%	16.0%	39.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.362	0.174	44.0%	7.8%	20.3%	54.2%	C	$2,700	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.300	0.187	25.9%	7.2%	20.7%	39.6%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.327	0.218	27.3%	5.0%	14.3%	51.7%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Jake Arrieta	RIGHT	0.133	0.115	30.0%	3.6%	60.7%	25.0%	P	$7,700	P	$7,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.326	0.193	33.5%	9.4%	24.9%	40.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (GPP), Carlos Santana (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Pittsburgh
			Tyler Chatwood							Joe Musgrove
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-120							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.400	0.401	35.3%	1.24	16.0%	51.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.316	32.8%	0.51	14.7%	50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.344	25.9%	0.37	20.9%	56.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.271	0.289	32.6%	0.80	21.2%	43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:			28 of 30	Salary Rank:			20 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%	94.7	9.9%
	2018	19	6.16	5.06	18.2%	19.3%	53.4%	31.5%	18.9%	93.1	7.9%
	L14	0	6.35	7.71	12.5%	16.7%	41.2%	52.9%	23.5%	93.5	9.5%

We kick off the main slate with Tyler Chatwood, who has been largely disastrous in his first season as a Cub. Chatwood’s walk rate (19.3%) being higher than his strikeout rate (18.2%) really tells you all you need to know. His complete lack of control forced Joe Maddon to move him into the bullpen, but he’ll be back on the mound as a starter tonight in Pittsburgh. Chatwood does have good ground ball skills (53.4%), which help him get out of trouble on occasion. Still, there’s no way you can risk it with a guy that walks more hitters than he fans. The Pirates aren’t a low-strikeout opponent to begin with.

Quick Breakdown: Chatwood is off limits until he stops walking everyone.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Joe Musgrove
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:			11 of 30	Salary Rank:			11 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	15	4.04	4.77	21.2%	6.1%	44.9%	30.2%	20.2%	92.9	11.7%
	2018	13	4.28	3.49	18.2%	5.9%	47.0%	32.7%	21.5%	93.1	10.1%
	L14	2	4.26	2.77	15.4%	1.9%	41.5%	33.3%	23.8%	93.2	12.9%

Joe Musgrove 3.49 ERA is a bit lucky compared to his 4.28 SIERA, but he’s still been solid this season for the Pirates. He has been slightly below-average in terms of strikeouts (18.2%), but walks haven’t been an issue for him and he’s been pretty good about generating soft contact. Musgrove also keeps the ball on the ground at a 47% clip, and he’s allowed just 6 homers in 13 outings. A date with the Cubs tonight isn’t ideal, but he gets to face them in his pitcher-friendly home park. He’s not a guy that really stands out, but I think he can give you a solid enough outing at his midrange price point. He’s a viable SP2 option if you’re looking to save.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is a solid if unspectacular option tonight against the Cubs.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Attacking Musgrove with lefties looks to be the way to go. The right-hander has allowed a .331 wOBA to lefties in his career, including a .327 mark so far this season. Anthony Rizzo is your top play from the Chicago side here, while Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Jason Heyward make sense for tournaments. I don’t think this is the spot to be cramming Javier Baez in, especially at his elevated price point. I’m generally lukewarm on the Cubs tonight against Musgrove.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.342	0.277	37.7%	3.1%	27.0%	45.7%	2B	$4,100	2B/SS	$4,900	2B	$9,200
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.346	0.138	30.7%	9.2%	11.1%	45.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
3	David Bote	RIGHT	0.414	0.189	39.0%	11.5%	19.7%	58.5%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,600
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.402	0.212	35.2%	11.5%	9.7%	37.7%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,900
5	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.265	0.106	28.4%	5.3%	19.3%	50.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.379	0.256	41.7%	15.0%	25.4%	40.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,400
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.306	0.147	30.4%	7.3%	20.9%	50.7%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
8	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.202	0.000	5.3%	4.0%	20.0%	66.7%	P	$5,500	P	$6,300	P	$12,900
9	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.287	0.083	30.6%	8.8%	22.5%	43.5%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.327	0.156	31.0%	8.4%	19.5%	48.8%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

I certainly have no interest in Chatwood today, but the Pirates offense on the other side isn’t all that appealing, either. Chatwood has allowed a .400 wOBA on the year to lefties, so you can start there if you’re jonesing for some Bucs exposure. Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco are fine plays, but I wouldn’t say either of them stands out as a must. Starling Marte and Josh Bell can help you differentiate in GPPs, but there are several offenses I’d rank ahead of the Pirates today. This isn’t a great park for power in the first place.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.362	0.206	37.2%	3.8%	11.9%	34.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.337	0.191	34.3%	4.8%	18.4%	46.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,100
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.368	0.260	36.6%	12.0%	23.4%	33.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,500
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.344	0.134	30.5%	11.5%	16.4%	51.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.378	0.217	36.0%	12.4%	21.7%	37.7%	C	$3,000	C	$4,100	C	$8,500
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.272	0.087	28.4%	3.8%	17.3%	37.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.349	0.130	31.9%	8.1%	15.9%	43.7%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.292	0.090	36.4%	4.4%	18.2%	39.9%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,700
9	Joe Musgrove	RIGHT	0.088	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	37.5%	83.3%	P	$8,000	P	$7,800	P	$15,300
	Team Averages		0.310	0.146	31.3%	6.8%	20.1%	45.2%

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 18th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore at Cleveland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Houston at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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