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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 22nd

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-23 01:40:01

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
stlouismlb Adam Wainwright cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-163
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.337 32.8% 8.4% 18.7% 42.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.226 0.255 27.5% 3.8% 28.8% 55.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.315 29.0% 6.2% 20.0% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.289 26.6% 8.0% 23.3% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $9,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.31 4.62 19.0% 7.0% 43.8% 31.2% 19.1%
2017 19 4.30 5.08 20.1% 7.7% 47.4% 29.9% 21.9%
L30 5 3.57 3.52 24.0% 4.7% 45.1% 28.6% 26.4%

Welcome to the MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule today with two games starting prior to 7:05 ET. What that means is that what we have is a nearly unplayable two-game early slate and then a 13-game slate with I’ll kinds of options. For the most part, I’ll attempt to keep the analysis short and sweet so we are only wasting time on the best plays.

We kick things off with Adam Wainwright against the Cubs. He owns a 5.08 ERA, 20.1% K rate and 7.7% BB rate on the season. He’s pitched better over his last five starts but he’s still just a pretty average pitcher. He owns a .357 wOBA vs. LH and a .321 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. He’ll take on a Cubs offense that has been pretty average against RH pitching this season at 22.2% K rate, .318 wOBA and 93 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: Of the four pitchers going on the early slate, Wainwright has the worst overall matchup. I would say he’s best suited for tournaments but that’s true about all four options. Realistically, he can safely be avoided here.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $12,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 20 3.90 4.07 24.2% 7.9% 49.8% 26.8% 22.5%
L30 5 3.92 4.91 21.3% 8.3% 58.1% 29.0% 25.0%

Jon Lester s the best pitcher going on the early slate but he’s also the most expensive by a lot. In fact, he’s the second most expensive pitcher on the all-day slate. Lester owns a 4.07 ERA, 24.2% K rate and 7.9% BB rate through 20 starts this season. He gets a lot of ground balls peaking at 56.1% the last 30 days. That leaves him with a .226 wOBA vs. LH and .299 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He’ll take on a Cardinals offense that checks in at 20.8% K rate, .310 wOBA and 89 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is the safest option going on the early slate. The good news is that it’s entirely possible to fit Lester because the four offenses on this slate do not feature expensive options. He’s your cash game pitcher for this slate even though I wouldn’t personally play cash games.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals are the toughest offense to target on the early slate. Their best hitter Matt Carpenter but he doesn’t get the preferred split against Jon Lester who owns a .226 wOBA vs. LH. As we saw prior to the All-Star break though, anything can happen as Lester was scorched by the Pirates for 10 runs (four earned) as he never made it out of the first inning. If you want to fire up a contrarian Cardinals stack it would include Tommy Pham, Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.307 0.417 0.123 43.4% 17.6% 17.6% 35.3% 2B $3,700 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.440 0.359 0.313 40.0% 16.7% 25.0% 47.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
3 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.301 0.333 0.157 37.9% 10.3% 15.4% 41.4% OF $2,600 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.363 0.350 0.239 36.2% 6.8% 13.7% 34.5% 3B $3,000 3B $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.340 0.433 0.207 45.5% 4.5% 9.1% 32.7% C $2,800 C $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.268 0.406 0.333 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.436 0.381 0.308 27.8% 10.3% 27.6% 38.9% SS $2,600 2B/SS $4,100 N/A N/A
8 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.347 0.406 0.194 33.3% 8.8% 20.6% 41.7% OF $2,300 1B/OF $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.261 0.217 0.000 25.0% 16.7% 16.7% 50.0% P $8,000 P $9,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham and Matt Carpenter

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have not been hitting well but they are capable of getting on track against just about any pitcher. Wainwright owns a .357 wOBA vs. LH and .321 vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. On a small slate, we can target bats from either side of the plate here. Anthony Rizzo is obviously the top option as he owns a .358 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Jon Jay is too cheap on FD if he leads but we may see Jason Heyward on that spot instead. Heyward would be an acceptable option. Finally, Willson Contreras has sneaky good power for a catcher with a .203 ISO vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.322 0.331 0.144 27.4% 8.6% 11.8% 47.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.320 0.336 0.160 35.6% 11.6% 13.1% 53.7% OF $2,900 2B/OF $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.358 0.390 0.230 31.6% 13.6% 12.6% 36.9% 1B $4,100 1B $5,500 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.290 0.203 34.9% 6.4% 29.4% 50.4% C $3,300 C $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.314 0.363 0.253 33.8% 12.4% 27.1% 40.9% OF $2,700 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.360 0.344 0.294 33.7% 9.4% 29.2% 40.8% OF $3,200 2B/OF $4,800 N/A N/A
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.305 0.279 0.188 30.8% 5.0% 22.2% 41.5% SS $2,500 SS $4,300 N/A N/A
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.303 0.282 0.175 31.7% 3.9% 27.1% 46.3% 2B $3,200 2B/SS $4,600 N/A N/A
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.182 0.259 0.080 37.5% 3.6% 39.3% 53.3% P $9,600 P $12,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras and Jon Jay (or Jason Heyward)

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

San Diego at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

San Diego San Francisco
sandiegomlb Luis Perdomo sanfranciscomlb Matt Moore
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -141 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.375 38.8% 7.6% 13.1% 54.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.345 34.1% 8.2% 18.9% 40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.292 28.7% 7.6% 19.9% 67.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.325 32.4% 8.7% 20.3% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Perdomo
luis-perdomo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.04 5.71 15.9% 7.0% 59.0% 34.0% 16.7%
2017 16 4.03 4.94 18.4% 8.8% 65.7% 32.6% 17.6%
L30 4 4.33 4.82 16.7% 11.9% 71.2% 36.7% 15.0%

Luis Perdomo is an enticing option as an SP2 or tournament pitcher. He’s a ground-ball artist with a 65.7% GB rate on the season. He has struggled with run prevention at times though with a 4.94 ERA. A lot of that can be attributed to his struggles vs. LH hitting. He owns a .377 wOBA vs. LH and .340 vs. RH hitting. The Giants own a 19.8% K rate, .290 wOBA and 79 wRC+ against RH pitching. While they don’t strikeout much, they feature almost no power.

Quick Breakdown: Perdomo is a safe option on the early slate. The main issue though is that you don’t necessarily need the salary relief. He’s a very solid option as an SP2 and usable in tournaments on single-pitcher sites.

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.39 4.08 21.2% 8.6% 38.2% 30.8% 15.3%
2017 19 4.95 5.81 17.8% 8.6% 37.5% 36.2% 15.5%
L30 5 5.00 5.27 16.8% 8.4% 40.4% 23.7% 14.4%

Matt Moore gets the “Who is pitching against the Padres?” bump today but we also have to keep in mind he’s still Matt Moore. He owns a 5.81% K rate, 17.8% K rate and 8.6% BB rate this season. The main issue with Moore though is a 38.7% fly ball rate. That splits out as 33.7% against LH hitters and 44.3% against RH hitters. In fact, 11 of Moore’s 16 home runs have been RH hitters this season. That said, Moore checks in at .357 wOBA vs. LH and .319 wOBA vs. RH over the past two seasons. If you are considering Moore though, the good news is the Padres check in at 25.5% K rate, .283 wOBA and 73 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Moore is a viable option in all formats because of the short slate and matchup. He’s actually listed by Vegas as the favorite to win this game. He’ll mostly just need to avoid the home run ball and he should be able to work his way through this Padres lineup.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres are somewhat of a boom-or-bust offense. They can almost never be considered safe but there is some sneaky upside here. Wil Myers owns a 50% hard contact rate vs. LH pitching. Jabari Blash and Hunter Renfroe have also been hitting LH pitching well while Jose Pirela make sense for salary relief at the leadoff position.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.343 0.310 0.189 36.0% 9.8% 29.3% 56.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.233 0.219 0.000 33.3% 5.6% 27.8% 50.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,200 N/A N/A
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.330 0.328 0.165 50.0% 14.1% 33.7% 41.7% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Jabari Blash RIGHT 0.374 0.319 0.318 46.2% 15.4% 34.6% 38.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.425 0.400 0.300 33.8% 11.1% 13.3% 36.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.281 0.297 0.109 32.0% 10.6% 13.6% 54.2% SS $2,600 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.201 0.158 0.055 24.1% 1.8% 47.4% 55.6% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $4,500 N/A N/A
8 Hector Sanchez SWITCH 0.305 0.291 0.462 22.2% 0.0% 30.8% 11.1% C $2,100 C $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Luis Perdomo RIGHT 0.000 0.043 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $6,800 P $6,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Jose Pirela, Jabari Blash and Hunter Renfroe

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

San Francisco

The Giants are somewhat of an interesting offense if you aren’t pitching Perdomo. He does own a .377 wOBA vs. LH and .340 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Denard Span, Brandon Belt and Buster Posey are your top options here as they all three smash RH pitching. Eduardo Nunez could also be worth a look as part of a Giants stack but his 54.3% ground ball rate is troubling.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.356 0.334 0.196 25.6% 6.6% 12.0% 38.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.315 0.260 0.108 23.3% 3.9% 9.8% 54.3% 3B $3,200 3B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.370 0.403 0.247 40.6% 16.3% 22.8% 27.6% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.361 0.370 0.139 32.4% 8.8% 12.1% 42.3% C $3,300 1B/C $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.262 0.304 0.149 35.1% 5.5% 22.6% 49.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.265 0.269 0.073 29.9% 4.9% 22.8% 61.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.322 0.300 0.157 26.7% 7.1% 11.0% 42.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.273 0.271 0.067 26.3% 7.7% 22.2% 51.3% OF $2,700 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Matt Moore LEFT 0.098 0.132 0.000 10.5% 3.4% 31.0% 78.6% P $8,200 P $7,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Buster Posey and Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Texas at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Tampa Bay
texasmlb Andrew Cashner tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.359 0.374 37.5% 11.9% 16.6% 37.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.302 36.4% 8.9% 28.0% 44.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.319 29.4% 8.6% 15.8% 57.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.295 33.2% 7.0% 27.9% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.72 5.25 19.1% 10.2% 46.5% 35.8% 12.5%
2017 15 5.63 3.58 11.6% 10.2% 50.3% 29.8% 18.7%
L30 3 5.18 3.86 13.2% 9.2% 52.5% 28.8% 20.3%

We’ll kick off the 13-game late slate with Texas at Tampa Bay. In general, we’ll spend less time on the terrible options as we roll through these games. Andrew Cashner owns a 3.58 ERA, 11.6% K rate and and 10.2% BB rate through 15 starts this season. He’s significantly outperforming his 5.63 SIERA. The bulk of the reason for that is he’s generating plenty of ground balls at 50.3%. He’s still allowing a .359 wOBA vs. LH and .328 wOBA vs. RH hitting.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner is pretty easy to avoid even against a Rays offense that will strikeout plenty but also features plenty of firepower.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 20 3.55 3.91 28.7% 7.9% 41.5% 37.7% 16.5%
L30 5 4.09 4.40 24.8% 8.8% 37.9% 35.6% 17.8%

Through 20 starts this season, Chris Archer owns a 28.7% K rate, 3.91 ERA and 7.9% BB rate. The one knock against Archer this season is his hard contact rate of 37.7% is much higher than we would like to see. The good news though is that he’ll take on a Rays team that owns a 23.7% K rate, .319 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching. That K rate is fifth highest in MLB against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even with 13 games on the main slate, it isn’t exactly loaded with pitching talent. There are questions surrounding everyone but given Archer’s 28.77% K rate and the Rangers 23.7% K rate, Archer is the pitcher I trust most in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate. Given that Archer is the pitcher I trust most for cash games I don’t see a lot to love here. Archer owns a .312 wOBA vs. LH and .297 vs. RH hitters. The one thing you could possibly take advantage of is Archer’s 37.7% hard hit rate. I suppose that could lead you to Shin-Soo Choo or Namara Mazara but I don’t love it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.342 0.384 0.181 41.5% 12.6% 20.4% 47.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.340 0.305 0.158 29.0% 6.6% 17.4% 48.9% SS $2,700 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.336 0.337 0.201 34.2% 10.0% 19.2% 37.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.375 0.342 0.266 36.4% 9.4% 10.8% 49.1% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
5 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.296 0.313 0.233 37.2% 7.8% 30.7% 36.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.300 0.297 0.225 36.8% 4.4% 24.4% 39.1% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.351 0.342 0.232 42.2% 10.4% 30.7% 40.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.335 0.330 0.323 36.5% 7.6% 28.6% 37.1% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.348 0.340 0.317 43.1% 14.9% 35.7% 26.7% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Tampa Bay

Even though Cashner generates plenty of ground balls at 50.3% on the season, he’s allowing a .359 wOBA vs. LH and .328 vs. RH hitting. The Rays have a healthy run total and could go somewhat overlooked a slate this large that includes Coors Field. Logan Morrison and Steven Souza are the top options here as they both hit RH pitching well. Steven Souza is also worth a glance if he’s in the lineup. He has a home run in three of his last five games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.325 0.263 0.080 18.3% 11.7% 15.6% 54.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.366 0.330 0.233 37.5% 5.8% 21.0% 37.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.343 0.314 0.186 31.7% 4.9% 14.7% 43.2% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.397 0.409 0.338 44.6% 14.7% 21.9% 32.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.255 0.349 0.200 48.0% 5.9% 17.6% 48.0% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.293 0.317 0.092 34.9% 20.8% 25.3% 56.6% 2B $3,000 2B $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.319 0.312 0.168 46.7% 5.4% 32.7% 47.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Shane Peterson LEFT 0.324 0.293 0.164 37.3% 5.4% 23.0% 47.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.255 0.274 0.051 25.6% 1.0% 16.2% 51.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,200

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Steven Souza

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Houston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Baltimore
houstonmlb Collin McHugh baltimoremlb Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-119 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.295 27.7% 7.6% 23.2% 43.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.342 30.9% 13.0% 19.3% 42.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.290 32.4% 6.0% 21.4% 39.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.344 33.7% 7.0% 17.2% 39.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.02 4.34 22.2% 6.8% 41.3% 30.2% 20.0%

Colin McHugh will make his first start of the season as he comes off the 60-day DL with an elbow injury. In 33 starts last season, McHugh was pretty average with a 22.2% K rate, 6.8% BB rate and 4.34 ERA. He allowed a .346 wOBA vs. LH and .331 vs. RH hitters last season. He’ll take on an Orioles offense that owns a 22.5% K rate, .320 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: McHugh pitched decent at the minor league level. There’s no reason he can’t return to the pitcher he was last season. That said, He’s a pretty average option on this slate.

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 29 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 12 5.63 7.20 14.4% 11.1% 40.7% 35.0% 18.5%
L30 4 5.86 5.59 14.6% 12.4% 35.4% 38.5% 10.8%

Through 12 starts this season, Chris Tillman owns a 7.2 ERA, 14.4% K rate and 11.1% BB rate. We honesty don’t need to spend any time at all on this one. The Astros are the best offense in baseball against RH pitching at 17.3% K rate, .366 wOBA and .133 wRC+. There isn’t a single statistic you could find that would tell you to start Tillman in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Tillman can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Outside of Coors Field, the Astros have the highest implied team total on the slate. They are seemingly never a chalk offense even in pretty obvious spots. We can pretty much attack with 1-6 in the order here.If you aren’t looking to stack, George Springer is an elite one-off with a .391 wOBA vs. RH as is Jose Altuve at .410 wOBA. Carlos Beltran is also worth a look with a .206 ISO.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.391 0.375 0.273 39.0% 9.1% 22.1% 50.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.410 0.348 0.195 27.9% 8.8% 12.3% 49.6% 2B $4,100 2B $5,300 2B $10,400
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.373 0.347 0.226 35.0% 7.9% 13.1% 32.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.317 0.284 0.206 33.0% 8.0% 19.1% 45.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.362 0.339 0.205 37.2% 1.7% 10.3% 41.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.420 0.326 0.271 33.3% 10.8% 20.6% 43.6% SS $3,500 3B/OF $4,500 1B $8,800
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.311 0.322 0.152 34.8% 8.5% 16.4% 44.1% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $7,500
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.303 0.332 0.141 31.4% 9.4% 17.2% 42.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Colin Moran LEFT 3B $2,000 3B $2,800 3B $5,600

Elite Plays – George Springer and Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Baltimore

The Orioles team total is also projected somewhat high. McHugh is somewhat of a wild card here coming off an injury. With plenty of other prime hitting spots,the Orioles are best suited for a low-owned tournament stack. If looking for a couple of one-off plays, Manny Machado stands out the most while Chris Davis and Adam Jones could be worth a look in large tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.311 0.186 29.3% 4.0% 17.5% 45.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.314 0.343 0.197 36.0% 9.2% 19.8% 41.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.363 0.309 0.215 31.2% 4.0% 20.7% 40.2% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.327 0.327 0.282 43.2% 12.4% 38.2% 33.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.325 0.341 0.181 30.9% 9.2% 20.9% 42.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.408 0.346 0.259 34.6% 6.9% 25.1% 52.9% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
7 Seth Smith LEFT 0.332 0.347 0.190 35.2% 7.7% 22.3% 42.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.304 0.317 0.172 32.7% 6.2% 25.5% 41.8% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,800
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.279 0.320 0.053 24.0% 6.3% 12.5% 40.8% SS $2,600 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Milwaukee at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Philadelphia
milwaukeemlb Brent Suter philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.299 39.3% 4.3% 12.9% 41.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.334 0.354 28.9% 8.9% 15.6% 32.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.285 24.6% 7.7% 21.3% 49.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.308 26.8% 3.5% 19.1% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brent Suter
brent-suter-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.33 3.32 16.5% 5.5% 43.3% 34.3% 22.9%
2017 4 4.18 3.09 20.2% 7.5% 48.4% 26.0% 17.7%
L30 3 3.49 1.80 24.7% 6.2% 50.9% 26.8% 19.6%

The Brewers and Phillies are two teams we usually like to pick on with pitching. With an over/under of nine, I’m not nearly as excited about that route today. Brent Suter has not been terrible in four starts this season. He owns a 3.09 ERA, 20.2% K rate and 7.5% BB rate. He has some really drastic splits (small sample) with a .349 wOBA vs. LH and .295 vs. RH hitting. The difference in his K rate is also 12.9% vs. 21.3%. The Phillies check in at 21% K rate, .302 wOBA and 82 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I would be more likely to use a couple of cheap Phillies LH batters here than would to pitch Suter. You could get away with him in tournaments or as an SP2 though.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 19 5.34 4.44 13.1% 6.2% 35.4% 30.6% 18.5%
L30 5 3.97 3.26 21.7% 4.4% 37.3% 32.9% 14.1%

Jeremy Hellickson is some sort of magician. He owns a 4.4 ERA, 13.1% K rate and 6.2% BB rate. He’s somehow holding down that ERA with a low K rate and a 35.4% ground ball rate. He’ll take on a Brewers offense that checks in at 25.3% K rate, .325 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against RH pitching. They also own a .193 ISO.

Quick Breakdown: There’s more risk here than I would want to take on given Hellickson’s low strikeout rate and the Brewers LH power.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The ideal way to target Hellickson is with LH hitters as he owns a .354 wOBA and 15.6% K rate. The Brewers have plenty to offer here with Eric Thames who owns a .398 wOBA and .303 ISO against RH pitching. Travis Shaw is also an excellent option with a .402 wOBA vs. RH pitching. If you want to stack the Brewers in tournaments, Jonathan Villar and Domingo Santana make sense as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.283 0.276 0.129 37.1% 7.5% 29.8% 55.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.398 0.355 0.302 43.1% 16.7% 26.3% 40.0% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.333 0.322 0.262 40.5% 9.0% 24.6% 48.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.408 0.373 0.289 39.9% 9.6% 20.4% 45.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.377 0.330 0.206 34.4% 12.2% 28.8% 47.8% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.334 0.288 0.181 28.1% 6.6% 17.2% 38.1% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.306 0.289 0.199 33.6% 7.7% 38.2% 43.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.316 0.278 0.145 27.1% 4.6% 17.9% 50.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
9 Brent Suter LEFT 0.412 0.186 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $6,700 P $6,800 P $13,500

Elite Plays – Eric Thames and Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana and Jonathan Villar

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Philadelphia

As mentioned above, we want to attack Brent Suter with Phillies LH hitters. The Phillies don’t necessarily have a lot to offer there though. Nick Williams has been absolutely smashing the ball since getting called up. He’s at least worth a look in tournaments. Odubel Herrera would be the other fringe option here. He hasn’t posted a zero in his last eight games but we’re usually looking for a little more pop in our bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.294 0.303 0.165 23.9% 6.0% 14.3% 59.4% 2B $3,000 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.282 0.245 0.138 21.1% 3.5% 13.2% 37.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.691 0.551 0.857 60.0% 0.0% 28.6% 60.0% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.346 0.341 0.305 31.0% 11.7% 26.6% 44.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.319 0.304 0.225 34.2% 9.0% 11.0% 49.4% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.323 0.334 0.167 37.7% 4.6% 23.1% 50.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.380 0.339 0.194 33.3% 17.3% 26.7% 45.2% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.398 0.482 0.147 37.9% 17.1% 12.2% 48.3% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.146 0.251 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% P $6,900 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams and Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.