MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 30th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-06-30 15:30:34

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Detroit								Toronto
			Matt Boyd							Sam Gaviglio
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-185							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.269	0.257	41.1%	84.9	24.7%	33.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.310	0.327	28.6%	88.0	15.5%	41.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.324	34.1%	87.3	18.5%	29.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.291	30.2%	87.8	28.7%	53.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%
	2018	15	4.71	4.15	19.9%	9.5%	30.5%	35.7%	20.2%
	L14	2	4.40	14.14	24.4%	12.2%	32.0%	44.0%	12.0%

Matt Boyd was getting lucky there for a while, but he’s come back to earth over his last 2 starts. On the season, he has a 4.15 ERA coupled with a 4.71 SIERA. He’s about average as far as strikeouts (19.9%) while still walking nearly 10%. The lefty has yielded a hard contact rate of nearly 36% and he is a pretty staunch fly ball guy. Today Boyd will face a decent Toronto lineup in a good park for power. Given Boyd’s fly ball tendencies and his general erratic nature, he’s an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Boyd against the Jays.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%
	2018	7	3.67	3.98	23.3%	6.4%	47.5%	29.4%	21.0%
	L14	2	3.03	5.19	29.0%	5.3%	40.0%	40.0%	16.0%

Sam Gaviglio has quietly given Toronto some good innings this season. The 28-year-old right-hander has a respectable 3.66 SIERA along with a solid 23.3% strikeout rate on the year. He has done a fine job of keeping the walks and hard contact to a minimum while inducing grounders at a 47.5% clip. While he did throw 104 pitches in a game earlier this year, the Jays have had a fairly quick hook with him in general. Gaviglio hasn’t topped 77 in any of his last 3 starts. The lack of depth he’ll give you is a concern, but he gets a favorable matchup today against a pretty punchless Tigers lineup. That said, he’s a bit overpriced, especially on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio probably won’t kill you, but there are better and cheaper SP2s worth considering.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Sam Gaviglio has been solid this season, but he’s no ace. The Tigers typically aren’t a great team to stack, but you can give it a try if you want to differentiate yourself in GPPs. I’d start with the lefties like Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario, while Nick Castellanos is another appealing option. After those 3, the quality of the Tigers’ hitters drops off considerably, so I probably wouldn’t bother trying to get cute with the lesser bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.411	89.2	0.178	43.0%	10.5%	20.6%	36.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.316	87.7	0.193	36.0%	12.7%	23.5%	37.5%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.379	90.3	0.204	49.2%	5.3%	22.9%	31.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.359	88.8	0.080	42.6%	8.2%	10.1%	38.5%	C	$2,400	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.330	88.9	0.215	35.1%	9.8%	31.7%	41.5%	OF	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.286	86.4	0.145	42.3%	3.2%	31.0%	41.6%	C	$2,600	1B/C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Grayson Greiner	RIGHT	0.275	85.7	0.077	28.0%	9.3%	32.6%	48.0%	C	$2,100	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.278	84.5	0.095	25.0%	3.8%	11.4%	45.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.296	87.9	0.158	30.0%	4.1%	27.9%	41.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.326	87.7	0.149	36.8%	7.4%	23.5%	40.2%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Jays get an exploitable matchup against Matt Boyd, a homer-prone lefty that doesn’t miss many bats. 50 of the 60 homers the southpaw has allowed in his career have come against right-handers, so I’d start there with Toronto’s bats. Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Yangervis Solarte and Russell Martin are plenty viable in this matchup, whether as a stack or as individual plays. The Jays can throw 8 or 9 righties in the lineup against Boyd, which makes them an appealing offense top-to-bottom.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.320	91.8	0.122	24.3%	5.6%	24.1%	40.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.381	91.9	0.305	32.2%	7.9%	25.8%	42.4%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.351	88.4	0.255	32.7%	5.9%	10.9%	36.7%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.379	95.0	0.125	45.3%	10.7%	18.7%	49.1%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.333	87.8	0.132	26.5%	11.3%	22.6%	50.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.271	84.1	0.163	34.2%	3.1%	15.3%	38.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.251	87.0	0.020	27.5%	5.7%	17.0%	40.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Luke Maile	RIGHT	0.395	91.9	0.297	55.6%	11.6%	25.6%	33.3%	C	$2,200	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.361	89.2	0.268	30.6%	2.4%	11.9%	50.0%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.338	89.7	0.187	34.3%	7.1%	19.1%	42.3%

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Russell Martin

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Minnesota			Chicago Cubs
	Adalberto Mejia				Tyler Chatwood
	LEFT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	CHC-143
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.403	34.9%	88.1	17.0%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.317	21.8%	85.0	24.3%	64.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adalberto Mejia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	21	4.95	4.50	19.2%	9.9%	39.3%	31.7%	19.1%

We saw Adalberto Mejia in the Twins’ rotation last year, but this will mark his 2018 debut in the majors. In 21 MLB starts last year, the left-hander had a 19.2% K-rate along with a SIERA of 4.95. He has flashed decent strikeout ability at the lower levels, but it hasn’t quite translated to the majors for him yet. While Mejia will get the benefit of shifting from the AL to the NL, it’s expected to be hot and windy in Chicago today. The ball flies at Wrigley when the wind is howling, so avoiding pitchers in this one is probably prudent.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Mejia today at windy Wrigley.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%
	2018	14	5.95	3.95	20.3%	20.0%	55.9%	29.4%	19.6%
	L14	1	5.76	1.80	26.1%	21.7%	44.4%	27.3%	54.6%

The Cubs were hopeful that Tyler Chatwood would pitch well now that he doesn’t have to pitch half of his games at Coors Field, but that hasn’t been the case. The right-hander’s 20.3% strikeout rate is only slightly higher than his crazy 20% walk rate. He does have a 3.95 ERA, but his 5.94 SIERA is a huge red flag. The strong ground ball lean (over 55% this season) helps Chatwood get out of trouble from time to time, but how can you roster a guy that has walked at least 5 in 9 of his 14 starts? The hitting conditions at Wrigley today make Chatwood a huge risk.

Quick Breakdown: There’s more downside than upside with Chatwood.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins face off against wild righty Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood’s ground ball ways can make him a tough pitcher to stack against, but the Twins grade out as a strong offense in this spot. Chatwood has allowed a wOBA 100 points higher to lefties than righties, so I’d start with guys like Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler and Logan Morrison here. The frustrating Brian Dozier is playable, while you can even take a shot with Joe Mauer here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.400	90.4	0.078	40.0%	12.8%	11.0%	51.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.356	90.0	0.283	39.1%	7.2%	16.3%	29.2%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.380	87.7	0.318	42.4%	5.8%	23.7%	22.9%	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.307	87.2	0.189	38.7%	9.2%	18.5%	39.8%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.326	88.0	0.112	40.4%	12.3%	20.6%	34.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.315	89.4	0.123	38.2%	11.8%	14.2%	38.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
7	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.314	86.8	0.168	41.1%	7.2%	23.9%	35.9%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.303	89.1	0.122	36.8%	7.4%	27.8%	41.2%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Adalberto Mejia	LEFT								P	$5,600	P	$6,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.338	88.6	0.174	39.6%	9.2%	19.5%	36.7%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubbies face left-hander Adalberto Mejia today at hot and windy Wrigley. Mejia hasn’t shown much ability to get lefties out at this level (.365 wOBA vs. LHB), so I wouldn’t be afraid to deploy a couple of Cubs left-handers against him. Anthony Rizzo is the top play, followed by righties like Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. “(player-popup #albert-almora)Albert Almora Jr, Addison Russell and Jason Heyward are lower priorities, but still strong plays. The Cubs are the top offense of the entire day.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.328	86.4	0.159	27.1%	8.6%	7.1%	48.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.386	89.2	0.266	40.7%	4.4%	14.7%	50.0%	2B	$4,300	2B/SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
3	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.389	92.7	0.214	34.9%	15.2%	19.7%	44.2%	C	$2,900	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.298	89.5	0.100	30.2%	7.4%	25.0%	28.6%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.312	86.5	0.193	25.0%	9.4%	15.6%	36.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	David Bote		0.280	98.0	0.091	37.5%	7.7%	30.8%	50.0%	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.294	88.1	0.132	39.3%	11.5%	41.0%	32.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.341	87.5	0.047	37.0%	18.9%	30.2%	51.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.828	78.6	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$6,700	P	$7,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.384	88.5	0.134	30.2%	9.2%	20.5%	37.9%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, “(player-popup #albert-almora)Albert Almora Jr

Secondary Plays – Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Oakland
			Adam Plutko							Edwin Jackson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-105							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.436	0.451	47.2%	92.6	10.5%	30.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.195	0.296	16.7%	80.8	33.3%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.257	0.285	31.1%	87.8	24.6%	28.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.240	33.3%	79.8	25.0%	30.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adam Plutko
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30

	2018	5	4.85	4.65	17.2%	6.3%	29.6%	39.8%	15.3%
	L14	1	4.04	3.38	15.6%	0.0%	33.3%	44.4%	11.1%

Adam Plutko has put together some decent outings this season, but I’m not buying it yet. He’s a right-hander with a 4.84 SIERA and a strikeout rate a shade over 17%. He’s kept the walks in check, but he has allowed a hard contact rate dangerously close to 40% and he is an extreme fly ball guy. Fly balls have a way of turning into outs in the spacious coliseum in Oakland, but the A’s also have a way of hitting a bunch of dingers. Plutko has already conceded 8 homers in just 6 games. Stacking the A’s looks like a far more fruitful strategy than deploying Plutko against them this afternoon.

Quick Breakdown: Plutko is one of the worst pitching options of the day.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Edwin Jackson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2017	13	5.03	5.21	17.7%	8.6%	37.0%	30.8%	22.4%
	2018	1	2.70	1.50	28.0%	0.0%	31.3%	27.8%	22.2%
	L14	1	2.70	1.50	28.0%	0.0%	31.3%	27.8%	22.2%

34-year-old Edwin Jackson has resurfaced once again, this time in Oakland. The veteran was excellent in his first start against the Tigers last week, holding Detroit to just a run on 6 hits with 7 punchouts in 6 innings of work. It only took him 80 pitches, too. In 16 combined outings with the Orioles and Nationals last season, Jackson had a 5.03 SIERA combined with a 17.7% strikeout rate. He’s also facing the Indians today. While the Tribe get a substantial park downgrade, playing Jackson today comes with immense risk. He’s a great story, but unfortunately we don’t get fantasy points for #narratives.

Quick Breakdown: Jackson once threw 149 pitches during a no-hitter. Something tells me neither of those things will happen today.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Edwin Jackson has been around forever, but he’s also been quite hittable over the course of his career. He’s yielded a .344 wOBA to lefties with a .336 mark against righties. The Indians have enough talented hitters of either handedness that I think they make for a fine stack here today. This isn’t an ideal setting for bats, but the Tribe are still stackable. The LHBs like Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez and Yonder Alonso instantly stand out. RIghties can hid Jackson, too, so I’m cool with Edwin Encarnacion (in an Edwin-Edwin matchup, no less!) if you want to round things out.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.391	90.1	0.259	40.5%	9.3%	20.5%	35.2%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,500	SS	$10,300
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.412	91.2	0.210	42.4%	7.7%	8.6%	43.5%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,400
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.423	89.5	0.351	36.5%	17.6%	12.2%	32.6%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,600	IF/OF	$10,000
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.379	90.0	0.280	40.0%	7.7%	24.9%	37.9%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,900	1B	$8,700
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.387	90.8	0.194	39.3%	9.6%	20.2%	37.5%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.324	85.6	0.118	42.4%	9.1%	11.7%	29.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.285	89.2	0.177	39.1%	5.3%	32.9%	35.9%	C	$2,800	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
8	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.354	87.4	0.129	37.5%	8.6%	18.5%	37.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
9	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.336	91.5	0.106	44.9%	4.0%	26.0%	55.1%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.366	89.5	0.203	40.3%	8.8%	19.5%	38.2%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland

The A’s will take their hacks against Adam Plutko, a hittable righty that allows tons of fly balls and no shortage of hard contact. You want to start with the lefties here, as Plutko is a RHP that has allowed a .412 wOBA against lefties in his career. Matt Olson, Matt Joyce and Jed Lowrie jump to the top of the list. Plutko isn’t much better against righties, though, so you can always go that direction with someone like Khris Davis. Dustin Fowler isn’t very good, but he will probably hit leadoff in a favorable matchup so he’s in play, too.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.344	90.4	0.155	47.7%	5.1%	19.5%	40.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.342	87.2	0.157	36.1%	13.8%	23.6%	31.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,500
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.338	89.0	0.238	36.5%	9.9%	21.1%	37.3%	3B	$4,000	2B	$4,900	2B	$8,700
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.440	94.5	0.288	50.0%	8.1%	24.7%	34.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,700
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.412	95.0	0.255	54.7%	10.8%	26.5%	32.1%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,100
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.378	88.8	0.173	46.3%	7.0%	19.8%	43.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.300	85.5	0.090	26.8%	7.8%	18.5%	43.0%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,300
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.334	88.4	0.095	42.9%	6.2%	14.3%	44.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Franklin Barreto	RIGHT	0.168	80.1	0.174	28.6%	0.0%	37.5%	30.8%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
	Team Averages		0.340	88.8	0.181	41.1%	7.6%	22.8%	37.5%

Elite Plays – Matt Olson, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Marcus Semien, Dustin Fowler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Angels at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
LA Angels								Baltimore
			Tyler Skaggs							Andrew Cashner
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-137							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.213	0.286	36.1%	88.3	31.5%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.367	28.9%	89.3	22.7%	36.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.318	39.1%	90.1	24.4%	44.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.386	0.391	32.1%	88.8	14.0%	43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Skaggs
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$21,500
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	2017	16	4.44	4.55	20.8%	7.7%	41.8%	32.2%	20.8%
	2018	15	3.49	2.69	26.3%	7.3%	45.9%	38.3%	11.9%
	L14	2	2.87	0.64	30.2%	5.7%	38.2%	50.0%	14.7%

Tyler Skaggs has been a steady presence for the Halos this season. The left-hander has a strong 26.3% strikeout rate along with a 3.49 SIERA. The hard contact rate over 38% isn’t exactly ideal, but he’s pitched well in spite of an unlucky .322 BABIP against him. Skaggs has stifled fellow lefties this season while allowing a .331 wOBA and 6 dongs to righties. The Orioles are a bad offense, so Skaggs could certainly mow them down today. The problem is that Baltimore is a righty-heavy offense, and there are still some decent hitters here. Skaggs is also expensive and is getting a substantial park downgrade going into Baltimore.

Quick Breakdown: Skaggs is one of the better pitchers taking the mound today, but you have to pay a hefty price tag for him.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,400
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%
	2018	15	4.86	4.70	18.3%	10.4%	40.1%	30.7%	16.9%
	L14	2	5.17	2.70	12.5%	10.0%	48.4%	19.4%	22.6%

Andrew Cashner got super lucky constantly last season, but he hasn’t been so fortunate this year. The veteran righty has a 4.85 SIERA along with a middling strikeout rate just over 18%. He also has a 10.4% walk rate and he has been way more fly ball dependent than in years past. After allowing 15 homers all of last year, Cashner has already served up 14 dingers in 2018. Against an Angels offense that doesn’t strike out often, I don’t see any reason to try the Andrew Cashner devil dance today.

Quick Breakdown: Cashner is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw a matchup against a hittable right-hander with a home run problem. After DHing for a week due to an injured finger, Mike Trout returned to the field last night in center. He said he would do so when healthy, and he sure looked healthy. Trout hit a home run in the first inning and enjoyed a stellar night at the plate, so it looks like we can play him again. Luis Valbuena is also a good source of power that comes with a cheap price tag, while Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Ian Kinsler and Albert Pujols are viable, too. The Halos are one of the very top offenses to target this afternoon.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.277	87.3	0.079	36.4%	5.2%	25.3%	52.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
2	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.450	92.4	0.310	46.5%	19.7%	19.4%	34.3%	OF	$5,000	OF	$6,000	CF	$11,300
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.392	92.3	0.229	46.7%	11.2%	26.8%	43.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	LF	$8,700
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.359	90.5	0.172	42.0%	4.8%	13.5%	39.5%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,500
5	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.289	89.5	0.151	40.2%	5.5%	33.2%	36.7%	3B	$2,500	1B/3B	$3,300	3B	$6,700
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.355	87.3	0.126	37.5%	5.9%	3.9%	48.9%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.329	85.9	0.202	34.1%	8.4%	10.2%	39.6%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,300
8	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.270	83.8	0.119	29.7%	4.6%	23.7%	36.8%	C	$2,200	C	$3,100	C	$5,500
9	David Fletcher	RIGHT	0.166	77.1	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	23.1%	40.0%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$3,500	3B	$6,900
	Team Averages		0.321	87.3	0.154	37.0%	7.3%	19.9%	41.3%

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Luis Valbuena, Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The O’s face a solid pitcher today in Tyler Skaggs, but he’s still a lefty with a wide split pitching in a park friendly to power hitters. Manny Machado is always in play, especially when he has the platoon advantage. I would stop short of saying they’re elite options, but Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones are the next Orioles I’d target. Jonathan Schoop has really struggled this season, which makes him a GPP flier at best for me. I don’t hate the 3-man mini-stack of RHBs for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.298	88.8	0.131	27.8%	7.4%	25.0%	68.1%	OF	$2,600	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,300
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.322	89.4	0.064	29.4%	2.1%	10.3%	37.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.390	91.9	0.227	35.7%	8.2%	6.1%	35.7%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,000	3B	$9,900
4	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.412	90.6	0.226	29.6%	11.5%	14.6%	40.8%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.332	94.3	0.143	40.0%	6.6%	26.2%	45.0%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,200	DH	$8,200
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.292	86.1	0.079	24.6%	7.2%	13.3%	45.3%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.296	92.1	0.200	36.8%	9.3%	38.7%	39.5%	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,900
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.328	86.8	0.217	46.7%	14.8%	29.6%	42.9%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.304	86.2	0.068	20.0%	2.2%	19.6%	40.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.330	89.6	0.151	32.3%	7.7%	20.4%	43.8%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Houston at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
Houston								Tampa Bay
			Justin Verlander							Ryne Stanek
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.228	0.210	23.9%	85.4	33.8%	32.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.202	0.253	21.4%	89.1	33.3%	35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.237	0.271	30.4%	89.7	29.1%	25.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.229	0.372	46.0%	91.5	25.9%	35.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$12,200	Salary:		$13,400	Salary:		$25,700
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	33	4.05	3.36	25.8%	8.5%	33.5%	34.5%	17.5%
	2018	17	3.05	1.82	31.3%	5.3%	28.5%	27.7%	20.7%
	L14	3	3.36	3.54	27.7%	3.6%	26.8%	32.1%	17.9%

While Jacob deGrom is the 1A pitching option on this slate, Justin Verlander is 1B. Verlander gets a park upgrade going into the Trop today, While the Rays aren’t a much better offense than the Marlins, they do have the benefit of putting a DH into the lineup. Still, Verlander has a ridiculous 31.3% strikeout rate on the season. His 3.04 SIERA is quite a bit worse than his 1.82 ERA, but both numbers are excellent. Verlander is a fly ball pitcher pitching in a park that has a way of turning fly balls into lazy flyouts. While I think deGrom is the right SP1 play, I wouldn’t tell you you’re doing it wrong if you opt for JV instead.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is an elite option in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ryne Stanek
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		29 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30
	2017	0	3.67	5.85	30.5%	12.6%	35.2%	44.4%	3.7%
	2018	7	3.87	1.99	28.4%	12.5%	35.3%	39.2%	21.6%
	L14	3	4.83	0.00	18.2%	9.1%	37.5%	37.5%	12.5%

Ryne Stanek will get the start for the Rays today, but he’s the starter in name only. He won’t pitch deep enough into this game to warrant fantasy consideration, and as of this writing I haven’t seen who will come in behind him to log a few innings. It may be Matt Andriese, but there has been no confirmation as of yet. Andriese hasn’t pitched in 5 days, but whenever he does get into games he rarely goes far beyond 3 innings himself. You can target the non-starting Rays pitchers in certain situations, but this looks like a spot to avoid.

Quick Breakdown: Ignore Ryne Stanek and the rest of the Rays pitchers today.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The problem with bullpen games is that they’re tough to peg. The Dodgers absolutely wrecked the Mets in a similar spot last Sunday, and the Rays have generally gotten mixed results with their new strategy. Alex Bregman is on fire right now for the Astros, while Jose Altuve is Jose Altuve. I don’t have a problem targeting either hitter in this spot, even in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. George Springer is mired in a slump right now, so I may wait for him to snap out of it before paying up for him. This isn’t a great spot for the Astros in general, so I’m unlikely to load up on Houston bats today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.356	88.7	0.161	34.8%	9.5%	17.0%	48.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,000
2	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.419	89.4	0.212	40.4%	13.4%	13.4%	37.7%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,400	3B	$10,400
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.379	86.8	0.167	36.1%	9.9%	12.9%	46.0%	2B	$4,500	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,700
4	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.334	85.2	0.109	30.8%	13.0%	14.8%	35.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,400
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.346	88.6	0.248	41.9%	8.0%	26.4%	31.4%	C	$3,000	C	$4,200	C	$8,500
6	A.J. Reed	LEFT												N/A	N/A
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.316	84.3	0.166	35.0%	12.0%	26.2%	41.4%	SS	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,300
8	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.296	86.5	0.134	29.0%	7.3%	16.3%	24.7%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	C	$5,800
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.213	88.1	0.205	29.3%	2.6%	42.1%	35.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.332	87.2	0.175	34.7%	9.5%	21.1%	37.5%

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays will be taking their swings at home against Justin Verlander today. While JV’s underlying numbers say he hasn’t been quite as elite as he’s looked, this is still the Rays we’re talking about. This is an easy offense to pass on today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	aEV	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.254	87.1	0.067	28.6%	13.2%	32.1%	53.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.326	87.8	0.132	32.4%	5.3%	16.0%	49.7%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,500
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.364	92.5	0.233	43.3%	18.9%	24.5%	40.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.347	90.5	0.155	38.2%	7.7%	20.3%	52.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.278	89.5	0.090	35.2%	4.9%	22.5%	51.0%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,800
6	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.345	87.1	0.202	33.8%	5.8%	26.0%	45.1%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,300
7	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.279	84.0	0.091	26.3%	8.5%	18.4%	47.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,500
8	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.295	85.4	0.126	31.0%	7.3%	24.9%	36.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,400
9	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.204	82.4	0.083	16.7%	9.8%	31.7%	50.0%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$3,100	SS	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.299	87.4	0.131	31.7%	9.0%	24.0%	47.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 30th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Detroit at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Minnesota at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Cleveland at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Angels at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Houston at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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