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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 3rd

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-04 04:50:33

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Jordan Montgomery torontomlb Joe Biagini
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-133 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.315 0.361 25.0% 6.9% 20.7% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.266 28.0% 7.0% 25.6% 59.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.306 25.7% 9.9% 22.8% 35.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.276 21.1% 5.3% 18.1% 52.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Montgomery
jordan-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.33 4.30 22.5% 9.4% 35.9% 25.6% 13.2%

Greetings Grinders, we have 15 games on the schedule today. Both FD and DK have left NYY/TOR off their early slate leaving five games early and nine games late. We’ll quickly cover this game for anyone not playing on the two main sites. Jordan Montgomery owns a 4.3 ERA, 22.5% K rate, and 9.4% BB rate. Montgomery has some fly ball tendencies with a 44.1% fly ball rate. This isn’t the type of pitcher we would use even if he were on the main slate.

Quick Breakdown: The Blue Jays have a couple of bats that hit LH pitching really well. This isn’t the spot to fire up Jordan Montgomery.

Joe Biagini
joseph-biagini-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.45 3.06 21.0% 6.4% 52.2% 23.0% 17.7%
2017 5 3.10 3.64 21.8% 5.3% 60.8% 25.4% 21.3%

Joe Biagini has been surprisingly competent in five starts for the Blue Jays. He has a 3.64 ERA, 21.8% K rate, 5.3% BB rate and most importantly a 60.8% ground ball rate. He’s not on the main slate either but we probably wouldn’t be using him against the Yankees. They have a 22.4% K rate, .351 wOBA and 121 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If Biagini wants to contain this Yankees offense he’ll need a heavy dose of ground balls. That’s something he’s certainly capable of but it isn’t what we are looking for in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Biagini owns a .293 wOBA vs. LH and .276 wOBA vs. RH. Those numbers don’t scream stack against me, but the Yankees have plenty of LH options. Brett Gardner has been red hot lately and owns a .342 wOBA against RH pitching. Beyond Gardner, the top options here are Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez who each own a wOBA over .400 against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.342 0.320 0.138 28.8% 12.8% 17.3% 48.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.426 0.375 0.304 38.7% 9.0% 22.5% 50.3% C $3,700 C $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.400 0.389 0.311 48.3% 10.5% 33.8% 41.7% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.340 0.348 0.199 35.6% 9.2% 20.8% 51.2% 1B $3,200 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.306 0.166 30.7% 3.4% 19.2% 49.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.306 0.266 0.172 24.7% 3.3% 15.5% 41.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.337 0.309 0.154 23.4% 13.1% 17.4% 47.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.319 0.318 0.159 31.6% 10.5% 26.3% 43.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.336 0.350 0.251 39.9% 11.8% 34.3% 29.7% 1B $2,300 1B $3,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Toronto

Jordan Montgomery owns a .315 wOBA vs. LH and .289 vs. RH hitting. That’s obviously from a small sample but it’s worth noting. One number that really jumps out is the gap between Montgomery’s xwOBA to LH of .361 and his actual wOBA of .315. The Jays offer several excellent options against LH pitching. That starts with Josh Donaldson who owns .396 wOBA vs LH and Kendrys Morales who owns a .381 wOBA vs. LH. Justin Smoak also should not be ignored as he’s been red hot and owns a .341 wOBA vs. LH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.338 0.305 0.160 34.0% 3.6% 14.7% 35.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.396 0.410 0.235 37.6% 18.3% 14.6% 34.9% 3B $4,000 3B $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.302 0.358 0.169 37.3% 13.8% 18.4% 41.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.381 0.393 0.208 38.4% 5.1% 19.1% 37.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.343 0.376 0.202 38.0% 10.4% 14.9% 41.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.320 0.317 0.154 30.7% 9.5% 16.8% 43.6% SS $2,900 SS $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 0.364 0.151 44.4% 17.0% 30.1% 44.4% C $2,600 C $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.297 0.294 0.125 24.5% 3.0% 20.3% 44.1% 2B $3,400 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.327 0.288 0.105 25.8% 8.4% 22.1% 54.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Arizona at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Arizona Miami
arizonamlb Randall Delgado miamimlb Edinson Volquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.353 30.2% 11.7% 17.3% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.373 36.0% 11.5% 17.1% 45.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.271 33.2% 7.1% 22.8% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.326 29.2% 8.0% 17.2% 54.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Randall Delgado
randall-delgado-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.37 4.44 20.2% 10.7% 41.2% 32.9% 16.9%
2017 1 3.42 3.82 21.1% 4.7% 48.4% 29.5% 14.7%

Randall Delgado will draw a spot start for the Diamondbacks. He’s only started one game this season and zero games last year. Delgado started his minor league career in 2007 with his first major league action in 2011. He has a career K rate of 20.2% which is close to league average. In fact, the numbers tells us that Delgado is pretty average in every way possible. He owns a career wOBA of .328 vs LH and .308 vs. RH batters. The Marlins own a 20.5% K rate, .313 wOBA and 93 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: – Delgado is closer to being a pitcher that we can use than he is to being one that we pick on. There isn’t a lot of great pitching on the early slate. I certainly wouldn’t fault you if you slotted Delgado in as your SP2.

Edinson Volquez
edinson-volquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 4.72 5.37 16.3% 8.9% 51.2% 31.7% 19.5%
2017 9 5.00 4.82 20.6% 13.9% 43.9% 37.8% 15.6%

Edinson Volquez owns a 4.82 ERA through nine starts this season. His 13.9% BB rate and 37.8% hard contact rate are way too high for us to consider him here. He also owns a .358 wOBA vs. LH and .337 wOBA wOBA vs. RH batters. The Diamondbacks own a 22.8% K rate, .343 wOBA and 107 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Volquez .358 wOBA vs. LH and .337 wOBA vs. RH hitters is way to high for us to consider against a Diamondbacks lineup that packs plenty of firepower.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Pretty much any day that he’s facing a RH pitcher, Jake Lamb is a top play. He owns a .389 wOBA and 40.9% hard contact rate. Paul Goldschmidt is also a strong option with a .383 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Beyond that, we need to wait for the Diamondbacks lineup. If Chris Herrmann is in the lineup, he’s way too cheap on FD. I might also have some interest in Reymond Fuentes or Gregor Blanco as one of them should be leading off.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.277 0.275 0.085 24.4% 10.9% 20.1% 46.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 David Peralta LEFT 0.337 0.313 0.166 36.6% 5.3% 18.9% 54.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.383 0.384 0.209 38.9% 14.4% 21.0% 46.1% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 1B $10,200
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.389 0.376 0.296 40.9% 10.9% 24.3% 42.9% 3B $3,900 3B $5,100 3B $10,000
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.317 0.295 0.140 32.0% 4.4% 21.0% 49.1% SS $2,900 OF/SS $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.346 0.314 0.169 32.3% 6.4% 21.4% 49.1% 2B $2,200 2B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
7 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.255 0.298 0.140 35.0% 8.5% 27.1% 36.5% C $2,700 C $2,800 C $5,600
8 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.236 0.264 0.084 28.6% 4.8% 21.4% 46.2% SS $2,600 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
9 Randall Delgado RIGHT 0.000 0.247 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $6,600 P $5,600 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Miami

Randall Delgado owns a career wOBA of .328 vs LH and .308 vs. RH batters. We’ll want to target the Marlins who hit RH pitching well. That starts with Christian Yelich who owns a .373 wOA vs. RH pitching. Justin Bour is the next best option with a .353 wOBA vs. RH pitching. As I mentioned above, Delgado is close to being a pitcher that you can use so I wouldn’t overdo it on Marlins options today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.299 0.246 0.076 19.3% 5.5% 15.9% 56.9% 2B $3,400 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.332 0.334 0.226 37.3% 9.3% 28.7% 40.0% OF $4,100 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.373 0.387 0.196 40.5% 12.0% 20.0% 54.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.335 0.333 0.182 36.6% 7.7% 19.8% 47.1% OF $3,600 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.356 0.393 0.230 40.1% 12.0% 16.8% 45.3% 1B $3,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.339 0.310 0.116 30.9% 5.3% 16.7% 50.2% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,200
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.338 0.342 0.143 29.9% 8.0% 20.1% 36.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.330 0.337 0.271 45.5% 5.5% 14.5% 33.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Edinson Volquez RIGHT 0.188 0.139 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 40.0% 62.5% P $6,900 P $6,500 P $12,900

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Cleveland at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Cleveland Kansas City
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco kansascitymlb Jason Hammel
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-165 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.315 37.9% 8.0% 24.9% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.334 32.4% 10.5% 20.0% 37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.275 31.8% 4.2% 25.7% 50.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.326 32.7% 5.7% 20.0% 42.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 9 3.43 2.93 26.0% 6.7% 46.2% 29.3% 17.7%

There are not many true ace pitchers on the early slate. Carlos Carrasco is probably the closest you’ll get. He owns a 2.93 ERA, 26% K rate and 6.3% BB rate. He takes on a Royals offense that owns a 21.1% K rate, .293 wOBA and 78 wRC+. Carrasco owns a .316 wOBA vs. LH and 24.9% K rate compared to .273 wOBA and 25.7% K rate against LH batters.

Quick Breakdown: – You’ll have to pay a premium for him but Carlos Carrasco is the safest thing going on the early slate. The one main concern is his 6.7% BB rate but the Royals offense lacks the firepower to do severe damage even if a couple runners get on base.

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.28 3.83 20.8% 7.7% 42.1% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 9 4.86 5.98 17.4% 8.7% 34.8% 32.7% 17.0%

Jason Hammel owns a 5.98 ERA this season. The underlying numbers tell us he hasn’t pitched well. He has a 17.4% K rate, 8.7% BB rate and is only generating 17% soft contact. He takes on an Indians offense that owns a 20.8% K rate, .328 wOBA, and 104 wRC+. Given that Hammel owns a .336 wOBA vs. LH and .318 wOBA vs. RH I want none of him in this matchup against the Indians.

Quick Breakdown: From top to bottom the Indians have all kinds of weapons against RH pitching. They’ll have 6-7 LH batters in the lineup against Hammel who owns a .336 wOBA vs. LH.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

This is one of the better hitting situations on the early slate. Hammel owns a .336 wOBA vs. LH and a fly ball rate of 49.5% this season. He’s also been pretty bad against RH batters with a .406 wOBA (109 batters faced). Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley are all strong options here based on their ability to hit RH pitching. An Indians mini stack is also in pay in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.341 0.342 0.189 38.0% 9.2% 19.5% 37.1% 2B $3,300 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.352 0.349 0.169 27.6% 8.9% 13.0% 46.2% SS $3,500 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.348 0.353 0.149 37.7% 10.0% 13.3% 47.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.378 0.403 0.267 38.3% 15.0% 16.9% 36.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.361 0.379 0.254 37.8% 11.0% 21.3% 38.3% 1B $3,700 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.355 0.333 0.166 26.4% 7.9% 9.7% 38.3% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
7 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.459 0.390 0.250 41.7% 20.0% 32.0% 36.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.218 0.264 0.148 30.5% 4.1% 25.5% 38.5% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.291 0.298 0.091 29.0% 13.8% 27.7% 41.7% OF $2,100 2B/3B $2,600 LF $4,500

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana and Michael Brantley

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Kansas City

The Royals have one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate today. If you want to attack Carlos Carrasco, the way to do it is with LH batters. They own a .316 wOBA and generate 37% hard contact. If you are playing Carrasco, the one Royal you are worried about is Mike Moustakas. He owns a .352 wOBA vs. RH pitching. He’s in the best position of anyone to take advantage of Carrasco.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.262 0.251 0.079 21.5% 3.5% 16.0% 47.0% SS $2,300 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.352 0.364 0.267 35.5% 6.8% 14.5% 35.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.309 0.297 0.090 27.3% 7.4% 20.8% 49.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.351 0.357 0.165 35.2% 9.9% 18.3% 56.9% 1B $3,100 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.323 0.311 0.202 37.1% 3.5% 21.2% 33.7% C $3,000 C $3,400 C $6,600
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.390 0.381 0.294 35.3% 8.0% 24.0% 39.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.324 0.341 0.283 39.0% 9.8% 30.6% 26.6% 1B $2,500 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
8 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.290 0.287 0.119 31.6% 5.0% 20.0% 43.7% 2B $3,000 2B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.287 0.320 0.136 35.5% 10.1% 27.0% 40.9% OF $2,600 OF $2,200 LF $4,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
stlouismlb Mike Leake cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.325 29.3% 5.4% 14.8% 56.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.240 0.273 28.1% 4.1% 27.1% 54.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.312 31.1% 2.8% 18.6% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.289 0.281 25.7% 7.9% 24.0% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake
mike-leake-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.92 4.69 16.5% 4.0% 53.7% 30.6% 17.3%
2017 9 3.74 1.91 17.7% 4.2% 54.3% 29.0% 16.7%

Mike Leake owns a 1.91 ERA his season. He’s outpitching his .374 SIERA by almost two runs. He’s doing it with excellent control. He owns a 4.2% BB rate and 54.3% ground ball rate. The Cubs have been a below average offense against RH pitching with a 22% K rate, .302 wOBA and 85 wRC+. We’ve typically been able to count on Leake this season. In 10 starts, his worst DraftKings score is 14.1 fantasy points. The problem is that now he’s getting close to the upper tier in pricing and we need a dominant effort every time out.

Quick Breakdown: Leake is the type of pitcher that is best suited for cash games. He’s unlikely to put up a terrible score. That said, the price is a little bit too high for someone who owns a 17.7% K rate. Even though the Cubs offense has been struggling, they are capable of getting things together at any point.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 11 3.73 3.86 24.5% 8.4% 51.4% 24.6% 20.8%

Jon Lester is the other “Ace” going today. His 3.86 ERA, 24.5% K rate and 8.4% BB rate really have not justified his price tag this season. The Cardinals have a 22.2% K rate, .285 wOBA and 75 WRC+ against LH pitching. They are certainly a below average offense. Over the last 13 months, Lester owns a .240 wOBA vs. LH and .289 wOBA vs. RH hitting.

Quick Breakdown: For cash games today, the top two options are Carrasco and Lester. You can make a case for or against either one. I lean slightly towards Carrasco but I don’t feel strongly about that. The most difficult bats in this Cardinals lineup are Carpenter and Fowler and Lester is great against LH hitting.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Similar to Carrasco, we probably aren’t picking on Lester when there are nine games on the slate. Lester owns a .240 wOBA against LH hitting and .289 wOBA against RH hitting. Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler are normally the go-to options on this Cardinals offense. I can’t recommend either of them today against Lester though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.357 0.360 0.179 37.7% 13.3% 15.3% 49.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.381 0.357 0.228 29.1% 12.2% 16.8% 38.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.336 0.358 0.171 32.7% 13.0% 20.6% 35.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
4 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.335 0.342 0.124 31.1% 7.0% 12.8% 46.9% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800
5 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.355 0.331 0.250 34.0% 13.7% 36.8% 40.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.211 0.263 0.103 26.0% 4.8% 24.0% 38.4% 3B $2,300 3B $2,700 3B $5,400
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 3B $2,300 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.312 0.294 0.129 27.5% 9.8% 14.5% 47.3% SS $2,700 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.223 0.258 0.000 30.8% 11.5% 38.5% 50.0% P $8,400 P $8,400 P $16,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Leake has been a tough pitcher to hit this season. He has a ground ball rate over 50% to batters from both sides of the plate. He also owns a .277 wOBA vs. LH and .255 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The top four hitters in the Cubs lineup all have a wOBA over .370 against RH pitching. You could certainly fire up Happ, Rizzo, Bryant or Zobrist. This isn’t the ideal spot to attack though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.367 0.352 0.243 36.4% 13.6% 34.1% 40.9% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.377 0.350 0.235 37.1% 9.8% 22.8% 31.1% 3B $4,100 3B $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.387 0.377 0.256 37.0% 12.0% 16.1% 36.7% 1B $4,400 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.360 0.369 0.184 33.5% 15.3% 11.9% 46.2% OF $3,200 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.300 0.318 0.118 27.3% 8.8% 13.8% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.331 0.310 0.193 32.6% 9.2% 28.0% 53.8% C $2,700 C $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
7 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.287 0.358 0.180 36.7% 12.3% 27.9% 46.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.294 0.294 0.147 27.5% 7.4% 21.8% 43.5% SS $2,900 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.136 0.230 0.048 26.0% 5.4% 27.0% 64.3% P $10,300 P $10,600 P $20,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Washington at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Washington Oakland
washingtonmlb Joe Ross oaklandmlb Daniel Mengden
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-113 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.349 34.9% 8.0% 18.9% 38.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.350 32.4% 11.4% 21.5% 35.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.299 28.5% 4.1% 22.1% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.343 26.9% 8.6% 21.3% 43.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 5 3.96 6.18 19.7% 4.1% 40.0% 38.7% 21.5%

The book on Joe Ross has been the same for quite sometime. Over the last 13 months he owns a .364 wOBA vs. LH hitters and .288 wOBA vs. RH hitters. He’s sporting a 6.88 ERA right now but his SIERA of 3.96 says he hasn’t pitched that bad. The Athletics rank third in K rate against RH pitching at 25%. They also own a .318 wOBA and 100 wRC+. The main problem for Ross is that he’s getting hit hard right now at 38.7%. A matchup with the Athletics still says this is one possible spot to go in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Oakland is unlikely to do Ross any favors today by loading the lineup with RH hitters. There simply aren’t a lot of great pitching options on this slate though. That leaves Ross as a possible tournament option though I’m unlikely to go here myself. Ross is still priced a lot higher than he needs to be given the way he’s pitched this season.

Daniel Mengden
daniel-mengden-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 6.50 21.4% 9.9% 39.5% 29.5% 18.8%

Daniel Mengden made one start this season that isn’t reflected in the chart above. He went 3.1 innings against the Indians allowing three home runs and striking out one batter. If you enjoy small samples, that start has Mengden at a .477 wOBA vs. LH and .937 vs. RH with a 5.6% K rate. Around here we don’t rely on small samples though. His career major league numbers are .364 wOBA vs LH and .373 vs. RH hitters. Mengden owns close to a 20% career K rate as well. Somehow, Mengden keeps drawing the short straw because he’ll face another tough offense today. The Nationals own a 19.3% K rate, .350 wOBA and 116 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: After getting blown up by a potent Indians offense there is little to make me believe the result will be much different for Daniel Mengden today against the Nationals. He’s not an option in any format.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Given that Mengden owns a career 364 wOBA vs LH and .373 vs. RH hitters we can fire up Nationals from either side of the plate today. That starts with Trea Turner who owns a .381 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Daniel Murphy is just behind him as he checks in with a .410 wOBA vs. RH pitching. A Nationals stack is fully in play here as are Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman as secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.381 0.338 0.241 32.5% 4.3% 18.8% 42.7% SS $3,800 SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.308 0.317 0.145 31.8% 11.5% 24.1% 42.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.410 0.399 0.253 38.8% 6.7% 9.2% 35.2% 2B $3,600 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.323 0.334 0.186 35.4% 5.6% 23.2% 45.6% 1B $4,000 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.344 0.347 0.191 35.3% 9.6% 18.2% 37.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Adam Lind LEFT 0.323 0.358 0.211 38.9% 6.5% 18.5% 44.1% 1B $2,600 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.312 0.322 0.165 33.3% 6.9% 18.1% 35.9% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.317 0.257 0.140 35.0% 5.0% 28.3% 52.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
9 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.271 0.262 0.141 30.8% 5.2% 32.0% 44.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Oakland

The way to attack Joe Ross has been the same forever. He owns a career wOBA of .359 vs LH hitters compared to .258 vs. RH hitters. If the Athletics are smart, they’ll get as many LH batters into the lineup as they can. The top option here is Yonder Alonso. He owns a .330 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Assuming Matt Joyce gets a favorable lineup position I don’t mind him as he owns a .344 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Finally, Stephen Vogt owns a .313 wOBA vs. RH pitching, He’s a decent option if you are looking to punt catcher.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.344 0.368 0.208 37.3% 17.8% 22.2% 41.4% OF $2,400 OF $2,700 RF $5,400
2 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.272 0.302 0.203 42.9% 4.5% 39.4% 29.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,600
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.323 0.318 0.125 32.8% 8.3% 16.6% 37.5% 2B $2,500 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.352 0.372 0.291 41.1% 7.5% 27.9% 43.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.325 0.327 0.189 32.7% 4.7% 24.0% 39.3% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.330 0.363 0.161 34.3% 9.9% 15.3% 39.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.313 0.323 0.166 27.0% 7.2% 15.3% 30.4% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.304 0.323 0.160 32.7% 5.6% 20.0% 43.5% 3B $2,500 3B $2,700 3B $5,200
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.286 0.254 0.193 30.3% 6.4% 32.2% 34.8% 2B $2,200 SS $2,100 3B $4,200

Elite Plays – Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce and Stephen Vogt

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.