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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, March 31st - Page Three

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-03-31 12:20:16

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Atlanta
philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez atlantamlb Brandon McCarthy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.354 35.4% 13.7% 20.9% 46.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.281 29.5% 5.5% 18.9% 41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.352 40.5% 8.0% 22.2% 39.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.292 25.6% 8.7% 18.6% 42.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $9,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2%

Vincent Velasquez has quietly had a sensational spring and more importantly, appears to be healthy. Health was the main issue last year in why he saw major regression compared to his 2016 season. I’m torn in that I love Velazquez in tournaments in the event he’s back to the Velazquez we all know and love, but the Braves are one of the more difficult teams to strike out.

Quick Breakdown: Velazquez is a tournament pivot off Yu Darvish if for some reason you aren’t paying up for Darvish. I love Velazquez in tournaments but am worried about his strikeout upside against a contact-heavy Braves team so I don’t see myself going here.

Brandon McCarthy
brandon-mccarthy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.55 3.98 18.8% 7.0% 42.0% 27.7% 22.7%

When he’s healthy, and he is right now, Brandon McCarthy is a serviceable option in DFS. There is some sneaky upside in this matchup as the Phillies feature several batters with K% north of 20%.

Quick Breakdown: McCarthy is one of my favorite SP2s on the main slate given the matchup against the Phillies. Health has always been the main issue and based on his spring performance, he appears to be in good shape right now.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.345 0.329 0.106 20.7% 11.1% 20.6% 49.8% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.359 0.377 0.214 35.6% 13.3% 17.4% 33.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.353 0.328 0.205 38.3% 6.0% 28.0% 46.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.421 0.392 0.333 45.3% 14.3% 22.7% 29.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.326 0.317 0.166 28.5% 6.5% 21.6% 41.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
6 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.352 0.308 0.106 16.7% 18.6% 20.3% 33.3% SS $2,200 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.297 0.326 0.180 30.1% 6.3% 15.6% 44.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.444 0.400 0.264 25.0% 1.3% 26.0% 50.0% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.234 0.147 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 20.0% 63.6% P $6,400 P $9,400 N/A N/A

McCarthy has done slightly worse against right-handers, and that means Rhys Hoskins is someone who needs to be on our radar. Ourside of Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana are options to fill your roster out, while Nick Williams has been working out of the #3-hole and is relatively affordable, so he’s worth keeping in mind as a punt.

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.332 0.298 0.115 23.7% 6.4% 13.6% 42.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.331 0.302 0.164 31.4% 7.6% 16.3% 39.3% 2B $3,200 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.422 0.439 0.293 39.1% 14.3% 16.7% 33.2% 1B $4,700 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.323 0.331 0.103 35.2% 11.0% 16.5% 47.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
5 Preston Tucker LEFT OF $2,200 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
6 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.267 0.292 0.084 27.7% 10.4% 21.9% 48.0% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.341 0.318 0.206 30.9% 5.3% 13.5% 37.1% C $2,100 C $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Ryan Flaherty LEFT 0.273 0.260 0.033 13.6% 8.8% 23.5% 59.1% 3B $2,000 2B/3B $2,400 N/A N/A
9 Brandon McCarthy RIGHT 0.129 0.178 0.000 25.0% 12.5% 54.2% 57.1% P $6,800 P $7,000 N/A N/A

I want to exercise some caution here because if Velazquez is back to his old self, he’s not someone I want to play batters against. The way I would approach this is mainly as a stack or nothing approach. Freddie Freeman makes the most sense if you’re searching for a one-off given how dominant he is.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City – 7:15 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Kansas City
whitesoxmlb Lucas Giolito kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -108 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.295 30.3% 4.7% 17.7% 49.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.365 47.1% 10.8% 18.1% 32.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.312 40.6% 8.5% 20.2% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.343 36.7% 7.9% 21.8% 39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lucas Giolito
lucas-giolito-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.49 2.38 19.0% 6.7% 45.0% 35.4% 19.2%

Lucas Giolito was excellent at times last season. He never allowed more than 4 earned runs in any of his starts and he struck out 10 against the Rays during a September start. He did struggle with allowing home runs which is one concern of mine. I do wish he was priced a little cheaper on DraftKings as his price tag makes it harder to justify him as an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a fan of his and like his skill set, but his price tag on DraftKings is a little high for my liking. On one pitcher sites, I’m paying up for Darvish and not considering Giolito.

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $8,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.88 5.38 20.0% 9.3% 36.0% 41.7% 11.8%

One reason I’m okay with fading the Cubs in tournaments is because I like this spot for the White Sox. Ian Kennedy allowed a whopping 34 home runs in just 154 innings last season. I had to double-check whether that number was inflated by him allowing them all on the road. Nope, he allowed 19 of his 34 home runs at home (this is a home game).

Quick Breakdown: Given his willingness to serve up home runs to opponents, Ian Kennedy is an avoid for me.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.348 0.336 0.212 42.0% 14.6% 32.5% 45.7% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.356 0.361 0.184 33.7% 6.0% 20.5% 51.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.361 0.372 0.239 39.6% 4.7% 17.2% 45.5% 1B $4,100 1B $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.288 0.290 0.242 39.9% 3.7% 39.9% 38.8% 3B $3,100 1B/3B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.362 0.308 0.218 28.7% 12.6% 18.1% 39.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.325 0.348 0.202 37.4% 6.7% 26.2% 41.9% C $2,300 C $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.268 0.267 0.140 27.5% 2.5% 28.2% 53.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.323 0.311 0.153 25.9% 7.0% 19.9% 46.2% 3B $2,300 2B/3B $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.210 0.230 0.106 27.1% 5.3% 38.0% 42.6% OF $2,100 OF $3,500 N/A N/A

I like this spot for the White Sox and they are right up there with the Orioles as my favorite stack on the main slate. Kennedy struggles with both handedness, but especially lefties (Kennedy had a 47.1% HC% against lefties, which is kind of crazy). Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu and 3-homer guy Matt Davidson are my favorite targets on this team. I don’t mind Avisail Garcia and Nick Delmonico as secondary pieces.

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Nick Delmonico, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.327 0.317 0.095 28.2% 7.5% 19.0% 46.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.331 0.331 0.163 30.1% 4.2% 13.6% 37.3% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.353 0.340 0.268 33.1% 6.4% 15.9% 32.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.360 0.365 0.298 43.2% 13.7% 25.3% 27.3% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.258 0.281 0.076 30.9% 5.1% 25.5% 38.2% 3B $2,200 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
6 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.216 0.227 0.066 29.0% 10.1% 33.3% 42.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.264 0.271 0.124 31.8% 7.5% 25.6% 39.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.258 0.256 0.099 25.8% 1.7% 16.5% 40.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.267 0.242 0.087 25.3% 5.6% 23.4% 33.7% C $2,200 C $2,500 N/A N/A

Given Giolito’s home run issues, I’m mainly focused on the power bats on the Royals, which includes Lucas Duda and Mike Moustakas. Outside of those two, I don’t have much interest in anyone else.

Elite Plays – Lucas Duda, Mike Moustakas

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Arizona – 8:10 PM ET

Colorado Arizona
coloradomlb German Marquez arizonamlb Zack Greinke
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.303 31.2% 7.8% 18.2% 49.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.288 36.1% 5.7% 26.3% 48.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.327 37.9% 6.2% 23.7% 41.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.273 34.1% 5.6% 27.4% 44.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.27 4.39 21.0% 7.0% 45.2% 34.5% 17.7%

I really do like German Marquez as a pitcher but this pitching environment in Arizona scares me. I know the humidor is in effect in Arizona but we just saw these two teams combine for 17 runs on Friday, and that involved stud Robbie Ray. I want to take more of a wait-and-see approach before I start rolling out pitchers in Arizona.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez is a solid pitcher who has proven he can survive tough environments like Coors, but I want to hold off a bit before playing a pitcher in Arizona and there are viable pivots on this main slate if I need a cheap SP2.

Zack Greinke
zack-greinke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.48 3.20 26.8% 5.6% 46.8% 35.1% 19.2%

What I just said about Marquez applies to Greinke. I’d rather not pay this price for a pitcher in Arizona right now. If anything, I’ll just find the extra money and pay up for Yu Darvish. I will say that Greinke will be very contrarian and a fine pivot off Darvish in tournaments at a fraction of the ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is an elite tournament play but this game environment isn’t one I’d want to touch in cash games in case it shoots out again.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.420 0.415 0.292 41.0% 10.0% 20.0% 35.2% OF $4,000 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.320 0.329 0.072 27.7% 8.3% 14.7% 55.7% 2B $3,100 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.356 0.350 0.180 31.0% 12.8% 19.4% 45.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.351 0.370 0.230 36.4% 9.1% 17.3% 37.3% 3B $4,400 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.333 0.354 0.163 37.2% 5.0% 15.0% 47.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.287 0.281 0.170 36.1% 7.9% 34.8% 35.4% SS $2,800 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Ryan McMahon LEFT 0.303 0.282 0.067 25.0% 21.1% 15.8% 83.3% 1B $2,200 1B/2B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.349 0.339 0.255 38.6% 10.8% 29.7% 33.9% C $2,200 C $3,600 N/A N/A
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.160 0.151 0.029 19.2% 0.0% 36.6% 80.0% P $6,600 P $6,700 N/A N/A

Zack Greinke is elite enough to where I won’t go out of my way to try and jam in players from the Rockies. Greinke also was great against both lefties and righties last season, so there are no noticeable opportunities to exploit. There are better pitchers to target hitters against on this slate. For whatever reason, Trevor Story has had some success against Greinke, and so has Carlos Gonzalez. I’ll list them as secondary options.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.353 0.341 0.166 36.0% 7.7% 16.8% 52.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.332 0.345 0.183 36.7% 8.3% 18.5% 42.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.398 0.412 0.261 42.5% 13.5% 23.9% 46.8% 1B $4,300 1B $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.386 0.388 0.270 37.4% 14.0% 20.5% 37.4% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.325 0.358 0.134 26.5% 10.6% 15.1% 39.5% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Alex Avila LEFT 0.377 0.408 0.208 54.2% 17.5% 31.9% 37.5% C $2,600 C $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.237 0.274 0.143 30.0% 4.0% 23.2% 48.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.317 0.284 0.117 17.9% 7.3% 15.0% 43.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Zack Greinke RIGHT 0.171 0.228 0.026 25.0% 2.2% 24.4% 46.4% P $9,000 P $10,100 N/A N/A

Marquez struggled mightily against right-handers last season, and the Diamondbacks have two of the best in the middle of their lineup: A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt. I’m completely fine with using them against Marquez. I also have no issues with Jake Lamb.

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at San Diego – 8:40 PM ET

Milwaukee San Diego
milwaukeemlb Brent Suter sandiegomlb Luis Perdomo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-110 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.236 0.293 33.3% 7.1% 17.7% 48.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.359 32.8% 9.6% 12.5% 57.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.306 27.4% 6.3% 19.1% 44.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.300 30.4% 8.6% 20.2% 66.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brent Suter
brent-suter-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.37 3.42 18.8% 6.5% 45.2% 28.9% 23.7%

The Padres feature a right-handed heavy lineup, which isn’t great news for Brent Suter. Suter struggled against righties last season and allowed 7 of his 8 home runs to them. Suter has never been a high strikeout guy even in the minors so that fact combined with the Padres likely having the platoon advantage for much of the lineup is enough for me to pass on Suter.

Quick Breakdown: Suter doesn’t generate enough Ks for me to have interest against a right-handed heavy Padres team.

Luis Perdomo
luis-perdomo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.45 4.67 16.5% 9.1% 61.8% 31.6% 18.1%

With Luis Perdomo sporting a low 16.5% K%, I’m looking elsewhere for my punt pitchers. This also isn’t a great matchup against a Brewers team that now features some powerful left-handers.

Quick Breakdown: Perdomo is a pass given the matchup against powerful lefties and his inability to strike people out.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.359 0.359 0.167 37.3% 13.0% 19.9% 54.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.346 0.347 0.123 29.1% 8.0% 16.2% 45.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.373 0.371 0.249 39.8% 10.9% 21.3% 42.9% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.343 0.341 0.208 36.0% 7.5% 20.8% 50.4% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Eric Thames LEFT 0.390 0.380 0.286 43.6% 15.0% 27.7% 36.8% 1B $2,800 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.328 0.302 0.169 30.4% 6.2% 21.4% 35.0% C $2,400 C $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.320 0.307 0.152 31.0% 5.7% 17.9% 51.3% SS $2,500 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.297 0.287 0.136 34.7% 6.5% 29.9% 56.1% 2B $2,600 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
9 Brent Suter LEFT 0.224 0.146 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 35.3% 100.0% P $6,200 P $5,600 N/A N/A

On the Milwaukee side, I’m focused on the left-handers: Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames and even Jonathan Villar. Perdomo has a bad history against this team and I’m good with a stack. If I’m putting together a stack, I would be sure to include Ryan Braun and possibly Lorenzo Cain, who has started off hot.

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Villar

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.355 0.292 0.195 26.3% 9.6% 17.6% 42.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.337 0.374 0.207 52.6% 15.1% 28.5% 39.2% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.324 0.324 0.149 24.4% 6.3% 13.0% 64.1% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.390 0.379 0.256 40.7% 8.9% 25.6% 47.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.257 0.240 0.054 24.2% 7.3% 17.1% 48.3% 2B $2,100 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.300 0.297 0.149 27.5% 4.9% 20.9% 42.5% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.277 0.273 0.094 20.7% 4.0% 11.9% 39.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.257 0.255 0.125 34.2% 5.0% 27.7% 38.0% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Luis Perdomo RIGHT 0.129 0.131 0.167 25.0% 0.0% 42.9% 60.0% P $6,100 P $6,300 N/A N/A

Given his struggle with righties, Manuel Margot, Wil Myers and Jose Pirela make sense. Margot and Pirela are especially cheap around the industry and make for fantastic punt plays with upside.

Elite Plays – Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, Jose Pirela

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at LA Dodgers – 9:10 PM ET

San Francisco LA Dodgers
sanfranciscomlb Derek Holland ladodgersmlb Kenta Maeda
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-200 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.310 28.7% 9.7% 13.4% 53.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.307 28.2% 7.2% 17.6% 36.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.408 0.393 41.3% 12.6% 17.5% 32.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.256 28.5% 5.0% 32.6% 40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Derek Holland
derek-holland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 5.57 6.20 16.6% 12.0% 37.7% 38.4% 17.6%

Derek Holland finds himself as the Giants’ #3 starter with the huge amount of injuries their rotation is facing. To his credit, Holland earned the rotation spot, pitching well during the spring. The Dodgers have yet to score a run in their first two games, but this could be the spot they turn it around. Holland was dreadful against right-handers last year, allowing 26 of his 31 home runs to them. The Dodgers have plenty of righties they can throw at Holland so this seems like a stay away spot. I know the numbers speak for themselves, but I would only YOLO Holland to jam in Darvish and all the bats I wanted, hoping that the Dodgers are on a cold streak to start the season.

Quick Breakdown: Holland struggles against right-handers and I’d expect the Dodgers to stack their lineup with righties, so this is a spot you likely want to avoid.

Kenta Maeda
kenta-maeda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.79 4.22 25.1% 6.1% 38.1% 28.3% 20.9%

You could argue that Kenta Maeda is a borderline elite pitcher. The problem with him is that he doesn’t go deep into games as the Dodgers routinely pull him early. That generally doesn’t allow him to pay off his enormous price tag, although he usually returns you with a solid game. Madea is in play as a cash game option because of the elite matchup against a scuffling Giants offense, but his upside is limited in tournaments if the Dodgers keep pulling him after 5 or 6 innings. Last season, Maeda only went 6 innings or more in 25% of his starts.

Quick Breakdown: Maeda is fine as a cash game play as this is a fantastic matchup, but he doesn’t go deep into games.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Panik LEFT 0.337 0.328 0.166 25.8% 8.3% 8.3% 41.2% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.372 0.384 0.254 41.6% 16.8% 22.4% 26.7% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.331 0.347 0.164 33.2% 10.1% 18.3% 43.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.347 0.339 0.115 30.7% 9.4% 11.6% 45.7% C $2,800 1B/C $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.322 0.312 0.166 33.6% 5.0% 14.5% 42.4% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.291 0.284 0.122 27.6% 6.3% 21.8% 62.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.307 0.323 0.160 33.8% 7.2% 21.0% 48.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.325 0.307 0.120 35.0% 7.9% 22.0% 46.7% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Derek Holland LEFT 0.877 0.666 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $5,200 N/A N/A

I’m not going out of my way for the Giants but if I need to, Joe Panik is my favorite target. He’s homered in two straight games and Maeda is more vulnerable to left-handlers. Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt profile as secondary options to consider.

Elite Plays – Joe Panik

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.355 0.322 0.188 29.6% 7.9% 27.2% 41.8% OF $3,200 2B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.389 0.374 0.201 46.9% 8.4% 22.6% 38.3% SS $3,500 SS $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.263 0.316 0.092 26.2% 16.6% 12.4% 56.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.390 0.405 0.309 43.3% 13.6% 18.6% 41.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
5 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.374 0.369 0.297 41.7% 8.7% 24.3% 33.3% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 N/A N/A
6 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.284 0.349 0.104 33.3% 10.9% 14.5% 50.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.381 0.382 0.161 42.1% 17.0% 24.2% 38.6% 3B $2,400 3B $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Austin Barnes RIGHT 0.377 0.400 0.257 40.5% 13.2% 15.5% 41.6% C $2,200 C $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.110 0.193 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 62.5% P $8,300 P $9,800 N/A N/A

A stack is definitely in play here if you think the Dodgers can break out of their cold spell. The righties are priorities but Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger can handle lefties just fine too.

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS