MLB Grind Down: Saturday, March 31st
Jump to Page 1 2 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Implied Run Totals
Pittsburgh at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Detroit | ||||||||||||||
 | Trevor Williams |  | Michael Fulmer | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| DET-120 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.322 | 0.293 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.9% | 47.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.292 | 0.310 | 35.0% | 5.7% | 18.1% | 44.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.297 | 0.331 | 34.4% | 9.0% | 19.5% | 48.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.268 | 0.301 | 25.6% | 6.1% | 15.8% | 53.1% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Trevor Williams | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $10,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 26 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | 4.63 | 4.07 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 48.0% | 28.9% | 21.8% | |
Hello Grinders. We have a large 15 game slate this Saturday. Before diving into the games, I do want to touch on one thing. With this being just the third day of baseball this season, there is so much we don’t know yet about these players and teams. A lot of the analysis I’ll use today is based on historical data or numbers from last season, but as we all know, things change over time. One of the toughest aspects about MLB DFS (or any DFS sport for that matter) when you’re starting a season is to rid yourself of biases from last season. I generally rely on Vegas implied totals to help me identify what the top stacks are and to help me with my pitching choices because Vegas is infinitely smarter than I am, but Vegas isn’t perfect either.
We start things off with Trevor Williams of the Pirates. I will point out that there are some weather concerns for this game and heavy winds are expected, so make sure to monitor that as that could either benefit or be a problem for the pitchers in this game. If you’re playing an early slate, Williams is likely the lowest priced pitcher available, and for good reason. Williams owns a career 7.1 K/9 ratio in the majors and during his four years in the minors, it was actually lower than that. His swinging strike rate over his career is also just a paltry 8.5%. The only silver lining is that right-handed batters have a .237 career batting average against him, and the Tigers could potentially be rolling out six right-handers.
Quick Breakdown: Williams has a tiny bit of appeal if the winds are heavily blowing in and the Tigers roll out an extremely right-handed lineup, but given the lack of strikeout ability he’s shown over his career I’d rather take my chances elsewhere if I’m YOLOing.
| Michael Fulmer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $14,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | 4.48 | 3.83 | 16.9% | 5.9% | 49.2% | 30.0% | 18.1% | |
After winning the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2016, Michael Fulmer took several steps back in 2017. Fulmer saw a sharp decline in the strikeout department last season and ultimately underwent elbow surgery in September. Jordan Zimmermann drew the opening day start for the Tigers because Fulmer experienced some soreness in his pitching elbow this spring. My biggest concern is that the Tigers will ease Fulmer in slowly given his history of poor health. On paper this isn’t a daunting matchup for Fulmer, but the Pirates have a starting lineup that doesn’t have a history of striking out a ton against right-handers. Amazingly, Fulmer’s K/9 ratio is similar to his opponent, Trevor Williams. Given these factors, he’s a pass for me.
Quick Breakdown: Fulmer’s historical low strikeout rate, spring training health concerns and a contact-heavy Pirates lineup is enough for me to look elsewhere for my starting pitcher.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.332 | 0.140 | 29.1% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 47.1% | OF | $2,000 | 2B/OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.323 | 0.150 | 32.9% | 4.3% | 16.7% | 34.5% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.311 | 0.160 | 27.9% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 39.8% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $9,000 |
| 4 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.343 | 0.340 | 0.211 | 32.5% | 11.5% | 19.8% | 51.7% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 5 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.338 | 0.220 | 34.9% | 6.3% | 23.5% | 39.2% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
| 6 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.328 | 0.128 | 25.8% | 6.2% | 18.1% | 48.4% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,700 | CF | $9,100 |
| 7 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.335 | 0.126 | 32.5% | 10.2% | 21.2% | 49.0% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,700 |
| 8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.317 | 0.150 | 27.9% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 48.3% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,500 |
| 9 | Colin Moran | LEFT | 0.446 | 0.456 | 0.333 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,600 |
While Michael Fulmer isn’t someone I’m targeting, I’m also not trying to target hitters against him. Fulmer has fantastic control and was the 11th best pitcher last season at distributing walks. Even when runners did get on, he only allowed 4 stolen bases in 5 attempts. Fulmer was also fantastic at limiting hard contact and was rarely hurt by the longball. My main targets would be the left-handers as they fared better than righties against Fulmer last season, but this isn’t a spot where I want to stack the Pirates. I will point out that Adam Frazier is $2,000, Gregory Polanco is $2,200, Corey Dickerson is $2,500 and Josh Bell is $2,800 on FanDuel, which feels too cheap.
Elite Plays – Josh Bell (FD), Corey Dickerson (FD), Adam Frazier (FD), Gregory Polanco (FD)
Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier (DK)
Stackability – ORANGE (mainly on FD where their prices are so cheap)
Detroit
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leonys Martin | LEFT | 0.195 | 0.238 | 0.075 | 25.0% | 5.3% | 27.2% | 42.3% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | CF | $6,700 |
| 2 | Jeimer Candelario | SWITCH | 0.331 | 0.328 | 0.135 | 27.5% | 10.3% | 20.5% | 46.3% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,300 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.343 | 0.144 | 41.6% | 8.7% | 20.2% | 40.6% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,500 |
| 4 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.349 | 0.193 | 42.7% | 6.2% | 22.9% | 35.5% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 | 3B | $8,300 |
| 5 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.311 | 0.333 | 0.134 | 43.0% | 8.7% | 14.7% | 38.4% | C | $2,800 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 6 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.302 | 0.121 | 38.0% | 5.8% | 26.5% | 38.2% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,300 |
| 7 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.331 | 0.161 | 35.6% | 6.7% | 21.7% | 48.9% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,200 | CF | $6,500 |
| 8 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.291 | 0.120 | 28.7% | 4.4% | 14.7% | 52.3% | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,600 |
| 9 | Dixon Machado | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.258 | 0.084 | 32.6% | 4.8% | 19.0% | 59.6% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B/SS | $3,100 | SS | $5,900 |
While Trevor Williams isn’t a name that strikes fear in me, this Detroit offense is extremely right-handed and Williams was fantastic against righties last season. The problem is that their left handers are pretty much Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario and an aging Victor Martinez. This isn’t an offense I’m very enthusiastic about and I’d rather take my chances elsewhere.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario\, Victor Martinez
Stackability – RED
St. Louis at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
| St. Louis | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
 | Michael Wacha |  | Jacob deGrom | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYM-135 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.326 | 29.8% | 10.5% | 19.7% | 46.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.298 | 0.289 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 25.3% | 44.1% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.319 | 0.284 | 26.5% | 5.6% | 25.0% | 49.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.284 | 0.256 | 32.2% | 6.2% | 32.4% | 46.5% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Michael Wacha | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $15,500 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 30 | 4.14 | 4.13 | 22.5% | 7.9% | 48.0% | 28.0% | 20.2% | |
I’ve generally viewed Michael Wacha as a better real-life pitcher than fantasy pitcher, but there are some encouraging signs that I may need to rethink that bias. For one, he saw his highest strikeout rate in 2017 since his 2013 rookie season. A big part of that was the fact he stayed relatively healthy after shoulder injuries in 2016. There’s also news that he’s using four pitches now, which will only enhance his ability to get batters out. Here’s what he said regarding this change:
“My curveball hasn’t been as good as I’d want it to be in the past, but this spring I feel like I’ve gotten it to where I want to be,” Wacha said. “It’s a pitch for me now, and the cutter keeps coming along, as well as with the fastball and changeup. I’m feeling good that right now I can throw them at any count.”
I’m more likely to take a wait-and-see approach on Wacha than roll him out against a fairly powerful Mets lineup and against Jacob deGrom on sites where the win is so heavily weighted in the scoring system. But if we start to see improvements with his ability to throw four pitches confidently now, it may be worth jumping on it sooner rather than later.
Quick Breakdown: Wacha is serviceable as an SP2 if you’re looking to pay down but I’m curious to see how he uses his new repertoire before heavily investing in him.
| Jacob deGrom | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $11,800 | Salary: | $22,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | 3.44 | 3.53 | 28.9% | 7.1% | 45.3% | 31.9% | 21.3% | |
I always make it a point to pay up for pitching, especially early in the season when so much of the offenses are still a bit unknown. Normally deGrom would be the easy clear-cut top option on this early slate but Stephen Strasburg makes things interesting. on FanDuel, I love how deGrom is actually priced lower than Straburg by $700, while deGrom is $300 more expense over at DraftKings. deGrom was absolutely filthy last season, finishing 5th in the majors with 239 strikeouts. My only hesitation with deGrom is that he suffered from back tightness at the end of February. That in turn pushed back the start of his spring training, and why Noah Syndergaard got the opening day assignment over him. It’s also worth mentioning that in his last spring outing, deGrom struck out eight batters over five scoreless innings, so it appears he’s fine and stretched out. I slightly prefer Strasburg factoring in the matchup, but I’d completely understand if you sided with deGrom.
Quick Breakdown: After some mild back tightness, deGrom appears to be a full go in his 2018 debut. deGrom is right there as the top pitcher on the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.368 | 0.350 | 0.243 | 38.0% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 37.3% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,400 |
| 2 | Tommy Pham | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.370 | 0.201 | 34.9% | 12.4% | 22.6% | 51.6% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $8,100 |
| 3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.379 | 0.235 | 43.5% | 17.9% | 19.2% | 24.5% | 3B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,500 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.400 | 0.366 | 0.268 | 39.7% | 9.0% | 21.9% | 45.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,300 |
| 5 | Jose Martinez | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.366 | 0.146 | 36.3% | 9.2% | 20.2% | 44.9% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B/OF | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,400 |
| 6 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.314 | 0.135 | 33.5% | 5.4% | 14.7% | 44.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Paul DeJong | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.334 | 0.231 | 36.2% | 3.7% | 26.8% | 32.5% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,600 |
| 8 | Kolten Wong | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.322 | 0.142 | 28.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 46.2% | 2B | $2,000 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $5,700 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | RIGHT | 0.044 | 0.104 | 0.000 | 16.0% | 2.3% | 39.5% | 82.4% | P | $7,800 | P | $7,900 | P | $15,500 |
If you’re playing the large seven-game early slate on DraftKings my recommendation would be to not play any Cardinals against deGrom. He’s clearly one of the top pitchers on this early slate and I see no reason to try and be cute. If you’re playing the three-game early slate on FanDuel, a case could be made to either stack the Cardinals or play a one-off and hope that deGrom isn’t sharp or makes a mistake. I’d expect ownership on the FanDuel early slate to be heavily on Strasburg or deGrom, so in theory the bats against them should be low owned as well. deGrom has been generally dominant against both lefties and righties so I would focus on someone with a high ISO against right-handers, such as Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler or Matt Carpenter. I will say that a stack against deGrom is contrarian although it’s more likely than not the equivalent of shoveling money into a furnace.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna (GPP), Dexter Fowler (GPP), Matt Carpenter (GPP)
Stackability – RED
NY Mets
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.381 | 0.193 | 38.5% | 16.3% | 24.7% | 43.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,400 |
| 2 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.368 | 0.221 | 40.8% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 36.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,400 |
| 3 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.369 | 0.371 | 0.273 | 42.9% | 10.0% | 21.1% | 32.4% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.315 | 0.336 | 0.167 | 36.5% | 9.9% | 16.3% | 41.0% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,200 | SS | $6,400 |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.349 | 0.173 | 29.7% | 14.6% | 22.0% | 38.0% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,000 | 3B | $7,100 |
| 6 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.324 | 0.136 | 35.1% | 6.4% | 16.8% | 36.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 7 | Kevin Plawecki | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.360 | 0.189 | 34.4% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 50.0% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,600 | C | $4,900 |
| 8 | Jacob deGrom | RIGHT | 0.252 | 0.244 | 0.069 | 31.0% | 3.2% | 29.0% | 40.0% | P | $9,300 | P | $11,800 | P | $22,800 |
| 9 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.264 | 0.230 | 0.125 | 22.7% | 1.5% | 30.3% | 50.0% | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,400 |
Michael Wacha has actually shown reverse splits, so my main interest would be in the right-handed bats. Yoenis Cespedes has also shown reverse splits and has hit right-handers better over his career, so he would be my main interest. Todd Frazier would also be another target of interest. It’s worth noting that Frazier has hit two home runs off Wacha over their careers.
Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes
Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington at Cincinnati – 2:10 PM ET
| Washington | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
 | Stephen Strasburg |  | Luis Castillo | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| WAS-150 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.248 | 0.261 | 23.8% | 8.4% | 29.0% | 47.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.267 | 0.252 | 32.1% | 8.5% | 24.2% | 54.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.256 | 0.267 | 30.6% | 5.1% | 29.2% | 45.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.284 | 0.262 | 27.4% | 9.3% | 29.9% | 62.8% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Stephen Strasburg | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,000 | Salary: | $11,500 | Salary: | $22,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28 | 3.37 | 2.52 | 29.1% | 6.7% | 46.8% | 27.3% | 21.4% | |
Strasburg is my favorite pitcher on the early slate. Strasburg had a 10.5 K/9 ratio and allowed a career-low 2.72 FIP and 0.7 HR/9 ratio in 2017. He had a 29% K% and a career-high 12.9% swinging strike rate too. In other words, he’s elite. The one worry is the ballpark, as Great American Ballpark averaged the 10th most home runs per game last season.
Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is my favorite pitcher on the early slate and one I’m willing to pay up for.
| Luis Castillo | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 15 | 3.63 | 3.12 | 27.3% | 8.9% | 58.8% | 29.7% | 22.1% | |
On the other side of this game is my favorite punt option on the early slate. It’s worth reminding ourselves that Luis Castillo is only 25 years old and skipped AAA, so there are going to be some growing pains. But Castillo has also shown flashes of brilliance at times. Last season he had a 27.3% K% and his ability to strike out opponents helped him score double-digit DraftKings points in all 15 of his starts except for one. I understand this is not a good matchup against one of the league’s best offenses but in tournaments, he’s the guy I’d want to pay down for if you’re trying to load up on bats because of his ability to make up ground quickly through Ks.
Quick Breakdown: My favorite punt option because of his ability to strike batters out at an elite rate, but would limit to tournaments given the opponent.
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.387 | 0.348 | 0.163 | 29.2% | 13.8% | 16.0% | 54.7% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.377 | 0.374 | 0.203 | 33.1% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 34.9% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,300 | 3B | $8,600 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.442 | 0.427 | 0.332 | 35.4% | 16.3% | 17.4% | 37.1% | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,200 | RF | $9,800 |
| 4 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.367 | 0.252 | 39.5% | 7.2% | 23.8% | 47.0% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 5 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.329 | 0.149 | 28.7% | 5.1% | 21.4% | 61.8% | OF | $2,300 | 2B/OF | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 6 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.351 | 0.195 | 27.3% | 6.4% | 18.3% | 51.8% | SS | $4,300 | SS | $5,100 | IF/OF | $9,700 |
| 7 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.298 | 0.221 | 34.3% | 7.1% | 32.7% | 41.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,300 |
| 8 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.267 | 0.288 | 0.113 | 29.1% | 8.2% | 18.2% | 41.7% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
| 9 | Stephen Strasburg | RIGHT | 0.144 | 0.157 | 0.079 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 63.0% | P | $10,000 | P | $11,500 | P | $22,000 |
Washington will be the chalk offense to target on the early slate if playing on Fanduel’s three-game slate, and it’s hard to argue against that. Castillo was difficult to run against and he was equally as nasty against righties than lefties. As crazy as it sounds, everyone is in play here. The Reds had the second worst bullpen in 2017 so even if the Nats have trouble against Castillo, they could put up runs in a hurry against their bullpen, who had a 5.17 ERA last season. I would personally priortize pitching over trying to stack the Nats, but there are some cheaper pieces here you could obtain.
Elite Plays – , Bryce Harper, Howie Kendrick, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman
Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Michael Taylor, Trea Turner, Matt Wieters
Stackability – GREEN (moreso because of the bad bullpen and ballpark, not because I want to pick on Luis Castillo)
Cincinnati
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesse Winker | LEFT | 0.438 | 0.382 | 0.271 | 37.7% | 12.6% | 18.0% | 52.6% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,200 | LF | $6,300 |
| 2 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.358 | 0.192 | 31.0% | 12.7% | 23.0% | 38.3% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $7,400 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.433 | 0.450 | 0.257 | 37.9% | 19.2% | 10.4% | 37.1% | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,400 | 1B | $8,300 |
| 4 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.388 | 0.362 | 0.261 | 36.9% | 6.5% | 20.9% | 39.0% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,500 |
| 5 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.366 | 0.265 | 40.3% | 9.7% | 24.2% | 43.9% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,400 |
| 6 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.326 | 0.339 | 0.138 | 34.9% | 10.0% | 15.5% | 42.7% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,800 | C | $5,400 |
| 7 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.268 | 0.286 | 0.070 | 20.5% | 3.4% | 13.7% | 43.7% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,100 | 2B | $5,700 |
| 8 | Luis Castillo | RIGHT | 0.065 | 0.099 | 0.000 | 5.9% | 3.7% | 33.3% | 69.2% | P | $7,400 | P | $6,000 | P | $12,000 |
| 9 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.296 | 0.261 | 0.092 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 20.0% | 45.9% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,100 |
Similar to what I said above about Jacob deGrom, I really don’t want to pick on Steven Strasburg. He’s been nasty against both sides of the plate. It’s interesting that Scooter Gennett (4-for-11 with 3 home runs) and Joey Votto (5-for-16 with 2 home runs) have some decent BvP against him, but they would be large field tournament plays as a way to differentiate yourself.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett (GPP), Joey Votto (GPP)
Stackability – RED
Houston at Texas – 4:05 PM ET
| Houston | Texas | ||||||||||||||
 | Lance McCullers |  | Matt Moore | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| HOU-170 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.267 | 0.276 | 26.2% | 5.9% | 27.4% | 58.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.438 | 0.410 | 33.3% | 9.2% | 16.8% | 40.6% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.297 | 29.3% | 9.2% | 24.6% | 63.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 0.332 | 35.1% | 8.3% | 19.4% | 36.8% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Lance McCullers | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | $19,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 9 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | 3.41 | 4.25 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 61.3% | 28.0% | 20.7% | |
Lance McCullers highlights the second tier of pitchers who I’m viewing a slight step below Strasburg, deGrom and Carrasco, but is right there if you need to pay down a bit in order to grab some of the higher priced bats. McCullers has always had nasty stuff, as evidecned by his 3.17 xFIP, 25.8% K% and 61.3% GB%. The main issue with him has generally been health, as he’s yet to pitch more than 125.2 innings in the majors. McCullers was filthy this spring, striking out 24 batters over 21 innings. Now is the time to use him.
Quick Breakdown: I love McCullers if you need to pay down a little from the top tier because you aren’t sacrificing strikeout upside.
| Matt Moore | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $10,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 31 | 4.86 | 5.52 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 37.7% | 34.7% | 15.9% | |
The Astros have been quiet to start the year but that may change against lefty Matt Moore. I’m from the Bay Area where Moore just pitched, and he wasn’t very impressive to watch. I’ve been stacking the Astros these first two nights hoping they’d explode but it hasn’t happened yet. Vegas has the Astros implied for the most runs on this slate so they seem to agree with the assessment that Matt Moore just isn’t very good. Moore had a horrible spring and when you consider he allowed a 34.7% HC% last season, I would stay away.
Quick Breakdown: Matt Moore is not an option you should consider given his poor recent form and the matchup against a high-powered Astros offense.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.413 | 0.428 | 0.248 | 36.8% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 43.0% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,800 |
| 2 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.406 | 0.384 | 0.239 | 30.9% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 32.0% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $8,100 |
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.412 | 0.350 | 0.209 | 25.2% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 48.7% | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $5,000 | 2B | $9,700 |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.445 | 0.460 | 0.217 | 43.2% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 51.9% | SS | $4,200 | SS | $4,900 | SS | $9,000 |
| 5 | Marwin Gonzalez | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.333 | 0.217 | 26.0% | 8.2% | 17.9% | 42.7% | 1B | $3,000 | OF/SS | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 6 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.302 | 0.087 | 23.0% | 6.9% | 18.8% | 35.6% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,700 |
| 7 | Evan Gattis | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.324 | 0.207 | 34.3% | 5.4% | 16.1% | 41.1% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,700 | C | $7,500 |
| 8 | Jake Marisnick | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.309 | 0.202 | 23.4% | 10.3% | 29.0% | 30.5% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $5,900 |
| 9 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.365 | 0.186 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 48.8% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,500 | C | $6,300 |
Moore actually struggles against lefties more than righties, so everyone is firmly in-play on the Astros. Generally our natural instinct is to focus on just the right-handers against Moore, but you could be contrarian in your stacks if you throw in lefty or two who may draw the start (like a Josh Reddick or Brian McCann). There is nobody I don’t love on this team. You could even use a bottom of the order stack to be different in large field tournaments, but there are several great options here for cash games and GPPs.
I will say that game theory comes into play when a team like the Astros become the clear chalk stack. There is always merit to fading a chalk offense, just like there’s always merit to fading a Coors game. You’ll need to take a stand one way or another, but I wanted to mention this aspect of game theory.
Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Jake Marisnick, George Springer
Secondary Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, Josh Reddick
Stackability – GREEN
Texas
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delino DeShields | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.285 | 0.070 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 22.4% | 49.5% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,600 |
| 2 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.374 | 0.350 | 46.7% | 14.4% | 35.9% | 28.9% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B/OF | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.324 | 0.164 | 29.4% | 5.2% | 14.8% | 49.5% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,200 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.338 | 0.212 | 35.2% | 8.5% | 14.4% | 43.8% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,500 |
| 5 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.335 | 0.193 | 34.4% | 9.9% | 20.1% | 42.7% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,400 | RF | $6,900 |
| 6 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.338 | 0.368 | 0.190 | 40.4% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 45.1% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,300 | RF | $6,700 |
| 7 | Robinson Chirinos | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.345 | 0.234 | 33.8% | 10.1% | 26.9% | 43.5% | C | $2,100 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.312 | 0.223 | 38.6% | 5.6% | 24.9% | 38.9% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,500 |
| 9 | Drew Robinson | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.287 | 0.213 | 32.1% | 11.9% | 35.6% | 45.3% | 2B | $2,000 | 3B/OF | $2,500 | IF/OF | $4,600 |
I have no interest in picking on Lance McCullers. This lineup is left-handed heavy and at first glance that may seem like a bad thing, but McCullers has actually been better against lefties than righties. Across the board (wOBA, xWOBA, HC%, BB%, K%, GB%), the numbers were all better against left-handers. Adrian Beltre and Robinson Chirinos would be my main targets, but they’d be long-shot GPPs plays and not guys I’d recommend heavily.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre (GPP), Robinson Chirinos (GPP)
Stackability – RED
LA Angels at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET
| LA Angels | Oakland | ||||||||||||||
 | Matt Shoemaker |  | Daniel Mengden | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| LAA-115 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.333 | 0.325 | 35.7% | 4.2% | 18.1% | 42.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.307 | 0.306 | 23.1% | 2.4% | 21.2% | 36.9% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.338 | 0.335 | 36.6% | 12.1% | 23.6% | 34.9% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.246 | 0.341 | 27.3% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 41.5% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Matt Shoemaker | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $13,900 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 14 | 4.60 | 4.52 | 21.2% | 8.6% | 38.5% | 36.2% | 14.7% | |
Shoemaker was the epitome of Jekyll and Hyde last season. There was an eight-game stretch last season where he was brilliant, but then he faded before ending his season early with elbow surgery. Shoemaker has also shown both the good side and bad side this spring. While Shoemaker possesses strikeout stuff, he’s too volatile for me to consider as an option in cash games and I would reserve him for tournaments only. His 36.2% HC% rate from last season doesn’t sit well with me against a patient A’s team that doesn’t strike out a bunch.
Quick Breakdown: I’d reserve Matt Shoemaker for tournaments only because of his strikeout ability, but he can unravel quickly and this doesn’t feel like the best matchup to use him.
| Daniel Mengden | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $12,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | 4.68 | 3.14 | 17.2% | 5.3% | 39.2% | 25.2% | 18.3% | |
Daniel Mengden has a really good mustache and funky delivery. That’s all I’ve got. But seriously, I don’t have much interest against a quietly good Angels team. Mengden had some success early in his career as his opponents weren’t used to his delivery and deception, but now that he’s been around longer I’m hesitant to think he has long-term success.
Quick Breakdown: I don’t have interest in Mengden as a punt option. His 3.14 ERA is deceptive considering his SIERA is 4.68.
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.320 | 0.154 | 34.6% | 8.7% | 14.9% | 34.3% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $6,900 |
| 2 | Mike Trout | RIGHT | 0.450 | 0.437 | 0.359 | 39.8% | 17.7% | 18.7% | 34.9% | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,100 | CF | $9,900 |
| 3 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.349 | 0.234 | 40.1% | 11.8% | 30.7% | 35.1% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,200 |
| 4 | Albert Pujols | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.312 | 0.163 | 35.5% | 5.2% | 14.2% | 43.4% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $7,100 |
| 5 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.353 | 0.238 | 29.2% | 12.2% | 15.8% | 38.8% | 3B | $3,300 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,100 |
| 6 | Kole Calhoun | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.323 | 0.149 | 33.1% | 11.1% | 21.3% | 43.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,400 |
| 7 | Andrelton Simmons | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.319 | 0.151 | 30.6% | 5.3% | 9.9% | 49.0% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,700 |
| 8 | Shohei Ohtani | LEFT | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 | N/A | N/A | |||||||
| 9 | Martin Maldonado | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.274 | 0.165 | 26.4% | 2.0% | 24.5% | 48.0% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,700 |
While I don’t love Mengden, he has been good against right-handers and the Angels are extremely right-handed. Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Zack Cozart profile as my favorite plays on the Angels with Kole Calhoun as more of a secondary option, but I don’t think I want to go out of my way to stack against Mengden either.
Elite Plays – Zack Cozart, Mike Trout, Justin Upton
Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun
Stackability – ORANGE
Oakland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Joyce | LEFT | 0.360 | 0.356 | 0.256 | 31.3% | 12.7% | 20.4% | 34.8% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,600 |
| 2 | Marcus Semien | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.320 | 0.152 | 26.1% | 9.7% | 21.7% | 36.9% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
| 3 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.353 | 0.358 | 0.179 | 35.6% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 26.6% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,300 |
| 4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.369 | 0.354 | 0.293 | 39.5% | 9.7% | 30.2% | 37.5% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,300 |
| 5 | Matt Olson | LEFT | 0.439 | 0.382 | 0.434 | 43.3% | 10.4% | 28.2% | 35.1% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,100 | LF | $8,200 |
| 6 | Stephen Piscotty | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.326 | 0.137 | 29.2% | 12.1% | 22.0% | 50.0% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,100 | RF | $5,500 |
| 7 | Matt Chapman | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.311 | 0.245 | 35.8% | 9.4% | 26.2% | 37.2% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,500 |
| 8 | Jonathan Lucroy | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.335 | 0.114 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 52.3% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,000 | C | $5,500 |
| 9 | Boog Powell | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.263 | 0.120 | 24.4% | 9.0% | 23.8% | 45.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 | CF | $5,800 |
If I’m targeting Shoemaker, it’s going to be with power hitters regardless of handedness as Shoemaker didn’t show any extreme splits. Last season, Shoemaker allowed multi-home run games in 4 of his 14 starts, and allowed at least 1 home run in 11 of his 14 starts. Matt Joyce, Khris Davis, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman are options for me if I’m home run hunting.