MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 12th - Page Two

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Implied Run Totals


Ballpark Ratings


Kansas City at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Jakob Junis clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.330 32.6% 5.4% 17.7% 45.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.351 31.9% 11.2% 23.0% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.367 36.5% 5.8% 21.3% 34.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.258 0.285 31.4% 10.7% 27.8% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jakob Junis
jakob-junis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 4 of 27 Salary Rank: 12 of 27 Salary Rank: 12 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.49 4.30 19.0% 5.9% 40.1% 36.7% 16.9%
2018 7 4.01 3.18 20.9% 5.0% 39.4% 29.6% 17.4%
L14 3 3.81 4.82 22.5% 5.0% 37.9% 27.6% 13.8%

When I’m looking at the box scores of Junis it’s impressive that he’s gone at least seven innings in four of his seven starts. He’s also struck out at least five batters in five of those starts. The matchup on paper is one that works in his favor – the Indians have the seventh highest K% against right-handed pitchers at 24.5%. There are just two things that give me some hesitation with Junis. One is that while his ERA is 3.18, his xFIP is 4.31. His strand rate right now is at 94%, which screams major regression is coming soon. The other thing that makes me a bit hesitant on him is his 1.99 HR/9 ratio. All this is to say that I don’t think Junis is a horrible play at his price tag, but I wouldn’t use him as an SP1 on FanDuel, and he’s only on my radar as an SP2 in tournaments for two-pitcher sites. There’s some red flags for me here and while the regression may not come today, it feels like it’s coming soon.

Quick Breakdown: The numbers for Junis scream regression is coming and because of that, I can’t recommend him for cash games. He profiles more as an SP2 in tournaments.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,900
Salary Rank: 7 of 27 Salary Rank: 6 of 27 Salary Rank: 4 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6%
2018 7 4.08 2.76 21.8% 7.8% 48.0% 25.4% 18.3%
L14 3 3.34 4.05 27.5% 7.5% 50.0% 26.9% 13.5%

Clevinger may draw some ownership on Saturday’s slate after his fantastic outing against the Yankees that saw him dominate them for 10 strikeouts in just 7.1 innings. This matchup with the Royals isn’t as bad in terms of the potential power, but the Royals do have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season at just 16%. We also saw this pesky Royals team beat Trevor Bauer yesterday, so it’s not going to be a cakewalk. I do like Clevinger in all formats and would be fine with him in cash games, but this isn’t a great matchup for strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger is in-play for all formats against the Royals, but just know the Royals have the lowest K% against right-handed pitchers so that may limit Clevinger’s upside to some degree.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.323 0.298 0.083 29.5% 7.4% 18.2% 48.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 CF $5,500
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.297 0.385 0.105 32.6% 13.4% 26.8% 43.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.382 0.380 0.287 36.3% 6.5% 15.1% 31.6% 3B $4,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.351 0.360 0.226 39.0% 3.3% 17.9% 33.1% C $3,600 C $4,000 C $7,700
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.377 0.355 0.271 42.5% 12.7% 24.6% 27.0% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,700
6 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.319 0.344 0.145 31.5% 5.2% 14.3% 38.0% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 IF/OF $8,100
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.306 0.406 0.136 33.9% 7.2% 23.9% 41.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,600
8 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.294 0.269 0.086 30.3% 7.2% 20.5% 43.7% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,000 3B $5,400
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.276 0.319 0.093 27.6% 2.7% 14.9% 40.9% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 SS $5,500

I’m a Mike Clevinger fan so I probably won’t be rostering many, if any, of these Royals bats. I do like Mike Moustakas in tournaments, and Salvador Perez has some appeal as well. Outside of those two, I don’t see a lot of upside of trying to use a Royals mini-stack or full-stack in tournaments. They’ll probably be low owned if you like that aspect for tournaments, but that’s about the main appeal here.

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Salvador Perez

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.368 0.441 0.245 33.2% 8.3% 14.2% 38.1% SS $4,600 SS $5,400 SS $9,500
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.318 0.375 0.152 34.4% 7.1% 20.5% 33.9% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.367 0.430 0.281 31.3% 10.3% 10.5% 37.5% 3B $4,400 3B $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.378 0.428 0.203 39.0% 9.3% 12.8% 47.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.390 0.400 0.256 37.2% 12.3% 20.8% 34.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $9,400
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.383 0.302 0.231 36.5% 12.8% 22.5% 35.4% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 1B $7,600
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.280 0.363 0.139 25.9% 7.2% 27.5% 39.7% C $2,600 C $3,600 C $7,700
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.322 0.401 0.102 42.3% 4.8% 26.7% 57.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.301 0.314 0.139 37.6% 8.3% 34.0% 43.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 CF $7,300

The numbers for Junis may seem like we shouldn’t pick on him, but I really do think an Indians stack in tournaments is sneaky if this is the day regression hits him. Junis’ 1.99 HR/9 ratio suggests we can chase some power here. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley and Yonder Alonso would be the ones I’d target in a stack. I’m not so much concerned about the handedness of the batter but moreso the power they possess. Just a heads up, but Tyler Naquin left Friday’s game early with hamstring tightness. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got a day to rest up here.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE


Seattle at Detroit – 4:10 PM ET

Seattle Detroit
seattlemlb Marco Gonzales detroitmlb Matt Boyd
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-100 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.298 24.5% 4.4% 16.2% 53.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.291 23.9% 8.1% 16.9% 45.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.382 0.369 34.9% 5.3% 22.2% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.331 35.0% 8.3% 18.4% 35.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Gonzales
marco-gonzales-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 19 of 27 Salary Rank: 16 of 27 Salary Rank: 15 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.48 6.08 17.3% 6.0% 45.4% 29.1% 23.4%
2018 7 3.17 5.19 25.5% 4.0% 42.7% 37.5% 17.3%
L14 2 3.75 4.50 21.6% 3.9% 35.1% 34.2% 15.8%

We’ll need to keep an eye on the weather in this game as this game got rained out yesterday. It seems crazy to consider a lefty like Marco Gonzales against an extremely right-handed heavy Tigers lineup, but this Tigers lineup is watered down without Miguel Cabrera. Still, the Tigers have the second-lowest K% against left-handed pitching this season. I’ll admit I’m torn on Gonzales here. He has a nice 25.5% K% and his xFIP is just 2.74. Since this is the first game of a double-header, we’ll need to monitor the lineup the Tigers roll out. I like Gonzales for tournaments and if the Tigers decide to throw in a few left-handed bats because of the double-header, that will increase my attraction for Marco a little more (it sounds weird to say “increase my attraction for Marco” but I’m going to leave it).

Quick Breakdown: Gonzales has been solid but the threat of a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup gives me some hesitation. I do think Gonzales is in-play for tournaments given his upside and price point, but keep an eye on what lineup the Tigers roll out in this first game of a double-header.

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 16 of 27 Salary Rank: 20 of 27 Salary Rank: 18 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0%
2018 6 4.74 3.00 17.9% 6.2% 31.8% 26.9% 25.0%
L14 2 3.73 3.46 22.6% 3.8% 34.2% 26.3% 26.3%

I remember picking on Matt Boyd when he first arrived in the majors. Matt Boyd day was almost like what Chris Tillman day is for us now. But Boyd has really improved as a pitcher and is no longer someone we can just pick on. He hasn’t given up a home run to a left-handed batter since the 2016 season (of course now that I just jinxed it, Robinson Cano or Kyle Seager will probably double-dong today). While I have more respect for Boyd now, I don’t plan on using him today against a Mariners team that is right there with the Tigers in terms of how they handle left-handed pitching. The Mariners are the third-hardest team to strikeout for lefties, and they have some serious right-handed mashers on this team.

Quick Breakdown: The Mariners are difficult for left-handed pitchers to strikeout and have some big power, so I’m passing on Boyd.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.250 0.269 0.053 12.8% 0.8% 11.8% 62.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.355 0.344 0.115 35.0% 8.2% 13.6% 45.3% SS $3,700 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.329 0.470 0.105 32.4% 8.2% 15.1% 55.1% 2B $3,600 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.448 0.413 0.217 44.1% 19.2% 19.7% 42.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.299 0.385 0.167 28.6% 6.4% 19.2% 35.5% 3B $3,400 3B $3,500 3B $6,400
6 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.355 0.420 0.225 31.1% 7.2% 18.7% 46.6% OF $4,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,500
7 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.327 0.411 0.211 29.9% 4.4% 22.0% 41.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 3B $7,400
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.329 0.345 0.252 35.9% 9.3% 36.4% 26.6% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,300
9 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.264 0.249 0.134 31.1% 3.7% 28.9% 52.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 RF $4,500

The Mariners have a wRC+ of 114 against left-handed pitching and there’s some appeal of a mini-stack here. The right-handed bats of Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino are all very appealing to me. I’m fine with them as one-offs or a mini-stack. Jean Segura doesn’t have a ton of power against lefties but I would use him in a Mariners stack as opposed to a one-off. I’m unlikely to chase the left-handed bats as Boyd has been fantastic against lefties.

Elite Plays – Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Mike Zunino

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Jean Segura

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.350 0.184 0.215 42.1% 4.7% 20.2% 41.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 CF $5,500
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.293 0.340 0.183 34.9% 7.6% 25.8% 48.8% 3B $3,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.420 0.339 0.301 46.4% 7.2% 15.6% 40.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.276 0.353 0.082 29.8% 6.9% 13.7% 54.8% C $2,500 1B $3,100 1B $5,900
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.453 0.340 0.273 40.6% 9.7% 15.3% 36.8% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $5,400
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.360 0.345 0.208 39.6% 9.9% 30.9% 40.4% C $2,900 1B/C $3,400 C $6,400
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.256 0.279 0.121 41.0% 5.5% 37.0% 43.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,700
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.296 0.287 0.105 28.0% 4.8% 8.1% 42.9% SS $2,600 SS $2,600 SS $4,500
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.274 0.268 0.041 31.8% 4.9% 13.6% 50.8% 2B $2,000 2B $2,700 SS $5,500

While I do like Gonzales a bit, right-handers are hitting .325 off him this season. Nick Castellanos, notorious lefty-masher James McCann (that one is for you, Derek Carty) and John Hicks are appealing. You can even consider Mikie Mahtook as a cheap cash game punt if he gets to hit leadoff (he’s always a pinch-hit risk but given this is a double-header and Leonys Martin is on the disabled list, maybe the Tigers let him play the whole game?).

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Mikie Mahtook (Cash games, if leading off)

Secondary Plays – John Hicks, James McCann

Stackability – ORANGE


NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-142 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.278 30.7% 4.4% 30.2% 40.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.369 0.374 37.0% 5.6% 15.7% 43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.268 23.7% 3.7% 24.8% 60.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.327 28.1% 3.4% 13.4% 40.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $21,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 27 Salary Rank: 3 of 27 Salary Rank: 3 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3%
2018 8 3.10 3.09 27.6% 5.1% 46.5% 24.8% 22.5%
L14 3 4.35 2.79 17.9% 6.0% 41.9% 25.8% 17.7%

Noah Syndergaard continues to exert his dominance on the league. He sports a massive 27.6% K% rate and now gets to face a Phillies team that has the second highest team K% at 26.7% against right-handed pitching. There’s also a big difference depending on what site you play on. Syndergaard is the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel’s main slate at $10,000, but the second highest on DraftKings at $11,500 (Charlie Morton is $12,800). The ballpark in Philly does scare me a bit for power, and Syndergaard does struggle containing base stealers, but he’s still my overall top pitcher on the main slate.

Quick Breakdown: From a point-per-dollar standpoint, Syndergaard is my favorite pitcher on the main slate.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 11 of 27 Salary Rank: 8 of 27 Salary Rank: 7 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 5.08 6.16 12.5% 4.3% 44.1% 33.3% 16.7%
2018 2 3.59 0.71 27.7% 6.4% 24.1% 29.0% 19.4%
L14 2 3.61 0.71 27.7% 6.4% 24.1% 29.0% 19.4%

It’s been quite an amazing two starts for Zach Eflin. He’s struck out 13 batters in his 12.2 innings and has a sprakling 0.71 ERA with a 0.73 WHIP. It’s worth noting that his velocity is up this season and he generated 14 swinging strikes in his last game against the Giants. I’m still a bit skeptical these changes are real considering he never showed this kind of strikeout upside in the minors. I’m planning to take a wait-and-see approach with Eflin but if you suspect these changes are real and want to continue riding this hot streak, go for it.

Quick Breakdown: Eflin’s velocity has increased and he’s strung together two great starts, but I’m still skeptical and plan to watch from the sidelines.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.403 0.261 0.205 37.6% 16.3% 24.0% 38.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 LF $5,600
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.350 0.383 0.185 37.5% 9.2% 17.2% 39.8% 2B $3,800 2B $4,000 SS $7,200
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.341 0.425 0.224 39.3% 6.7% 21.7% 34.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,300
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.354 0.363 0.158 37.4% 7.8% 16.6% 36.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.342 0.344 0.212 34.9% 6.8% 13.7% 34.9% 1B $2,600 1B $3,000 3B $5,400
6 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.380 0.256 0.258 38.6% 15.1% 22.3% 38.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,400
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.304 0.284 0.172 31.0% 9.2% 25.5% 41.4% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
8 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.260 0.047 0.048 45.5% 12.0% 44.0% 50.0% P $10,000 P $11,500 P $21,900
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.257 0.345 0.100 25.8% 2.3% 28.4% 50.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,900 SS $5,900

Eflin has traditionally struggled with lefties, so the left-handed bats of Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez and Michael Conforto pique my interest. Yoenis Cespedes also hits right-handed pitching well, so I would include him in any Mets stack. As I mentioned above in my writeup for Eflin, he’s been pitching well and the velocity is up, but I don’t know if this is for real. I personally would either stack the Mets or just avoid them altogether because there is a chance Eflin has made some kind of change (or maybe something has just clicked).

Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo (Cash games, if leading off)

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Adrian Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.318 0.375 0.120 22.8% 11.6% 22.1% 49.0% 2B $3,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.328 0.432 0.214 35.3% 7.5% 28.2% 44.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 LF $6,500
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.323 0.441 0.173 28.0% 7.3% 20.2% 41.6% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.403 0.352 0.292 41.9% 15.1% 25.3% 27.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.389 0.351 0.217 35.0% 13.6% 16.7% 34.3% 1B $3,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.325 0.408 0.191 29.6% 6.2% 15.5% 45.2% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
7 Pedro Florimon SWITCH 0.272 0.290 0.094 32.5% 4.5% 35.8% 46.2% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.337 0.374 0.214 31.7% 2.9% 35.0% 52.4% C $2,100 C $3,000 C $5,800
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.159 0.000 0.000 37.5% 0.0% 60.0% 57.1% P $7,700 P $8,800 P $16,700

With such a big main slate and with Coors available as an option, I can’t see myself wanting to pick on Syndergaard. The Phillies should be low-owned in tournaments if you want to play the ownership angle, but it’s a low probability play in my mind. You can certainly look to Rhys Hoskins for some one-off power, or Cesar Hernandez for his stolen base upside, but I don’t have much interest in the Phillies on this slate.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez (GPP), Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Stackability – RED


San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Pittsburgh
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.352 33.1% 5.9% 24.4% 34.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.385 0.368 39.2% 11.6% 22.1% 35.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.271 27.6% 3.6% 22.7% 46.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.325 32.4% 8.5% 20.1% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 24 of 27 Salary Rank: 19 of 27 Salary Rank: 17 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.63 4.42 24.2% 3.8% 41.5% 30.1% 20.7%
2018 4 5.84 6.62 17.7% 15.3% 30.4% 33.3% 15.8%
L14 2 5.54 7.00 19.1% 14.3% 32.1% 28.6% 17.9%

Jeff Samardzija is so cheap, but he hasn’t hit double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three outings. Plus his opponent, the Pirates, are the fourth hardest team for right-handed pitchers to strikeout. Add in the fact that Samardzija has just a 17.7% K% this season and there’s just not much incentive to want to use him in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Samardzija is cheap but his low strikeout upside against a team that makes a lot of contact isn’t a recipe for success, so I’ll look elsewhere.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 27 Salary Rank: 13 of 27 Salary Rank: 10 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.79 4.35 20.9% 10.6% 41.9% 36.1% 17.2%
2018 7 4.12 4.12 21.8% 7.3% 36.6% 33.0% 15.7%
L14 2 3.97 3.09 25.0% 9.1% 42.9% 31.0% 6.9%

The matchup on paper is favorable for Chad Kuhl. The Giants are in a funk right now and also own the fourth highest K% against right-handed pitchers. They are getting mowed down right now and Kuhl is almost averaging a strikeout per inning. The problem with Kuhl is that he’s awful against left-handed batters, and the Giants will likely roll out five lefties. Kuhl has some upside in tournaments with the potential strikeouts in this Giants lineup, but I wouldn’t touch him in cash games because he could easily get knocked around by some of these lefties.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl gets a nice matchup against a strikeout prone Giants offense, but he’s nothing more than a tournament option because of his continued struggles against left-handed batters.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.294 0.235 0.117 26.7% 12.2% 22.4% 42.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 LF $5,500
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.349 0.466 0.152 34.9% 11.5% 18.3% 41.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.363 0.108 31.1% 8.9% 12.0% 47.5% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,500
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.418 0.442 0.269 42.6% 16.5% 22.4% 23.8% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.315 0.340 0.168 35.6% 4.3% 16.7% 42.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,300
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.335 0.350 0.183 36.8% 6.7% 21.6% 47.3% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,100 3B $5,500
7 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.313 0.340 0.141 34.5% 6.5% 22.1% 46.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,500
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.236 0.303 0.141 21.1% 4.4% 22.4% 49.1% 2B $3,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.155 0.042 0.091 16.7% 0.0% 34.8% 57.1% P $6,200 P $6,400 P $12,900

Kuhl has been fantastic against righties this season but lefties are hitting .313 with a 1.024 OPS. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Alen Hanson, Gregor Blanco and Pablo Sandoval (if in the lineup) are where I’d focus my attention. I doubt the struggling Giants in PNC Park will gather much attention on a slate with Coors, so you can make a case for a lefty Giants stack in large field tournaments if you want to be different.

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco (Cash games, if leading off)

Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Alen Hanson, Pablo Sandoval (if in the lineup)

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.325 0.289 0.130 28.2% 8.0% 12.7% 48.9% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,400
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.340 0.373 0.181 30.0% 8.6% 14.3% 38.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.318 0.282 0.135 25.2% 6.9% 18.4% 47.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.330 0.316 0.189 32.6% 11.2% 19.5% 52.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.339 0.379 0.222 34.5% 6.1% 20.3% 36.2% OF $3,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.358 0.496 0.152 35.0% 10.9% 19.5% 44.6% C $3,200 C $3,600 C $7,300
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.388 0.423 0.170 35.2% 10.7% 15.6% 40.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.300 0.299 0.151 27.5% 8.4% 16.7% 45.3% SS $2,600 SS $3,000 SS $5,600
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.134 0.081 0.047 21.9% 2.1% 29.8% 65.4% P $7,300 P $7,700 P $15,600

Samardzija has struggled mightily against left-handed batters so far this season. Lefties are currently 12-for-30 off him this year with three home runs and a 1.314 OPS. The Pirates have some very solid left-handed batters in Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell and Corey Dickerson. I like these three as a mini-stack or as one-offs if you want exposure against Samardzija.

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW


Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
atlantamlb Mike Soroka miamimlb Jarlin Garcia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-122 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.231 0.331 25.0% 3.7% 22.2% 52.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.295 29.4% 7.4% 23.0% 44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.506 0.493 35.7% 11.1% 11.1% 28.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.374 31.8% 9.4% 15.8% 38.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Soroka
mike-soroka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 27 Salary Rank: 14 of 27 Salary Rank: 14 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 2 4.13 4.50 17.8% 6.7% 42.4% 29.4% 17.7%
L14 2 4.13 4.50 17.8% 6.7% 42.4% 29.4% 17.7%

After a brilliant debut against the Mets, Soroka struggled against the Giants, finishing with 1 DraftKings point. He’s still a very highly-regarded prospect, but we need to keep in mind he’s just 20 years old. It’s also worth noting he’s only thrown 80 and 84 pitches in his first two starts, so it seems like the Braves are being very cautious in terms of how much they expose him during his first run in the majors. The Marlins are not a very imposing offense and are among the top-10 teams in strikeouts, so there is some appeal in this matchup. Even so, I would probably pay up for Michael Wacha against the Padres before I play Soroka.

Quick Breakdown: Soroka is a talented prospect and this is a solid matchup, but I’m concerned that he hasn’t been allowed to go deep into games and he struggled with command in his last outing. I prefer other pitchers as my SP2.

Jarlin Garcia
jarlin-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,500
Salary Rank: 21 of 27 Salary Rank: 23 of 27 Salary Rank: 21 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.37 4.73 18.7% 7.6% 39.0% 27.2% 18.5%
2018 5 4.84 2.68 18.1% 10.4% 43.1% 36.9% 14.6%
L14 2 5.13 7.20 13.6% 6.8% 35.3% 42.9% 17.1%

The Jarlin Garcia regression game came fast and furious against the Cubs in his last outing where he got punished for seven earned runs and three homers. The signs for regression were there – he has just a .163 BABIP so he’s definitely getting lucky. And while his ERA is 2.68, his xFIP is 4.72 and he has a 36.9% hard hit rate. The Braves have the lowest K% in the majors against left-handed pitching. The stats for Garcia may look nice, but I am not going to touch him in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia’s numbers suggest more regression should come in the future. The Braves have been the hardest team to strikeout this season for lefty pitchers, so I’m avoiding Garcia in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.396 0.333 0.304 39.3% 6.9% 9.9% 42.2% 2B $4,700 2B $5,200 2B $10,700
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.405 0.379 0.333 41.2% 0.0% 18.2% 47.1% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.377 0.427 0.238 36.5% 9.3% 22.8% 38.9% 1B $4,500 1B $5,300 1B $9,800
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.323 0.422 0.155 30.4% 7.9% 15.9% 50.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 RF $8,600
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.417 0.322 0.354 42.5% 6.8% 6.8% 30.1% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,600
6 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.279 0.373 0.122 21.9% 12.2% 25.6% 42.9% 3B $2,700 3B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,600
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.347 0.362 0.247 34.8% 4.3% 21.5% 40.6% SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,700
8 Mike Soroka RIGHT 0.357 0.235 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $6,800 P $7,500 P $14,600
9 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.271 0.283 0.060 18.6% 8.3% 12.7% 60.5% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 CF $8,500

While Coors should draw a lot of ownership, I’ll likely look to the Braves for some of my lineups. They have a wRC+ of 120 against left-handed pitchers and the highest batting average against southpaws (.287) by a wide margin. Ozzie Albies mashes left-handing pitching, while Ronald Acuna and Kurt Suzuki will hold the platoon-advantage. If you roll out a Braves stack, don’t leave out Freddie Freeman or Nick Markakis, who both hit left-handed pitching well. I also need to point out that while I don’t love the lefty-on-lefty matchup for Ender Inciarte, he’s been running when getting on base. Per this tweet here by Matthew Pouliot, he’s already got 16 steals on the season, which is already more than 3/4s of the way to his career high of 22.

It’ll be interesting to see what kind of ownership the Braves draw on Saturday, but they are one of my favorite stacks on the main slate. Their prices are very high across the industry though, so that may keep their ownership lower than normal.

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Kurt Suzuki

Stackability – GREEN

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.337 0.375 0.168 33.9% 5.4% 18.0% 49.5% C $3,300 C $3,700 C $7,700
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.290 0.265 0.098 20.5% 4.0% 14.1% 46.7% 3B $2,200 3B $2,700 3B $5,500
3 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.301 0.321 0.139 30.6% 4.2% 19.5% 53.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,300 2B $6,300
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.407 0.439 0.261 40.6% 11.8% 20.1% 41.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,500
5 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.309 0.371 0.103 29.5% 10.6% 25.0% 53.6% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,300 3B $6,500
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.319 0.322 0.163 34.7% 6.6% 21.6% 38.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,500
7 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.304 0.350 0.095 24.0% 7.1% 11.0% 54.2% SS $2,700 SS $2,800 2B $5,900
8 Lewis Brinson RIGHT 0.260 0.272 0.111 31.3% 6.9% 38.5% 51.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
9 Jarlin Garcia LEFT 0.129 0.000 0.000 0.0% 12.5% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,600 P $5,300 P $10,500

We don’t have a lot of information yet on Soroka at the major league level but Justin Bour and J.T. Realmuto stand out to me as potential bats against the rookie. Both have power and that’s what I’d chase with the Marlins. Outside of those two, I have no desire to stack the Marlins in this spot as I don’t see them as having enough upside.

Elite Plays – Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – RED


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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS