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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 12th

by Allan Lem (fathalpert) Last Updated 2018-05-12 14:12:42

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Oakland NY Yankees
oaklandmlb Andrew Triggs nyyankeesmlb Domingo German
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-190 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.357 33.8% 7.8% 20.8% 47.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.255 0.240 25.0% 10.7% 25.3% 45.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.310 27.0% 6.7% 19.3% 52.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.282 38.2% 14.3% 37.1% 37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Triggs
andrew-triggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 27 Salary Rank: 18 of 27 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.54 4.27 17.7% 6.7% 49.8% 26.7% 15.2%
2018 7 3.79 4.41 24.3% 8.1% 51.6% 37.1% 18.6%
L14 2 3.33 3.86 27.7% 6.4% 48.3% 43.3% 6.7%

Triggs is coming off a dominant performance against a strikeout-prone Orioles team where he threw seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts. Triggs now has a difficult task of facing the Yankees in New York. I normally don’t advocate using starters against the Yankees on their turf, but I will point out that his salary is enticing given it’s been priced down to account for the difficult matchup. Triggs’ 24.3% K% is also tempting. He’s one of the better options if you’re punting the SP2 position on two-pitcher sites. I can’t advocate for him in cash games, but I will admit he has some tournament appeal at this price tag if he can limit the damage and fan some batters along the way.

Quick Breakdown: Triggs has SP2 appeal in tournaments given his price tag and strikeout upside, but it’s a scary matchup against the Yankees.

Domingo German
domingo-german-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $10,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 27 Salary Rank: 4 of 27 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.93 3.14 29.0% 14.5% 54.5% 28.6% 25.7%
2018 1 3.13 2.66 32.5% 10.8% 34.0% 31.9% 12.8%
L14 1 2.90 0.69 32.0% 8.0% 33.3% 30.0% 10.0%

What a meteoric rise by Domingo German. After being just $5,700 in his last start on DraftKings, German is now $10,200 and the second highest priced pitcher on Saturday’s early slate (note: he’s a much better play on FanDuel at just $7,400). He’s coming off a six inning, nine strikeout performance where he didn’t allow any hits, so the top prospect certainly deserved a price jump. But for him to see this dramatic of a salary increase is….surprising. He also only went 84 pitches in his last outing, so I’m sure the Yankees will monitor his pitch count. The A’s have a team K% of 24.4% and just a wRC+ of 101, so this isn’t a spot we should be too scared about for German. So here’s the main question you’re going to have to answer – is this price tag too crazy or is it fair considering what he’s done in his brief time in the majors? For cash games, I prefer either paying up for Stephen Strasburg or some of the more established options below him, but German deserves some tournament consideration if you’re playing multiple lineups because of his strikeout upside.

Quick Breakdown: German has started 2018 on a fantastic note, but his price tag has me hesitant playing him outside of tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.313 0.264 0.133 26.7% 9.0% 22.1% 39.2% SS $3,300 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.368 0.237 0.235 31.8% 13.7% 21.2% 34.5% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.379 0.383 0.200 36.5% 11.2% 15.1% 28.8% 2B $3,900 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.394 0.309 0.288 41.8% 9.6% 29.0% 37.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.399 0.375 0.341 45.6% 11.1% 31.3% 34.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.336 0.249 0.234 37.8% 9.7% 25.8% 36.1% 3B $2,500 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.311 0.275 0.185 33.7% 6.2% 30.4% 38.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.230 0.230 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.321 0.247 0.113 40.5% 11.5% 25.8% 46.4% C $2,100 C $2,500 N/A N/A

German only has 34.2 innings in his brief major league career, but he’s already struck out 45 batters with a crazy 31% K%. I do think he’s pitching a bit over his head right now, but his minor league track record does suggest this strikeout upside is real. As such, this isn’t a spot where I want to load up on A’s batters. The lefties of Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie and Matt Olson are interesting if you want to chase the power for the A’s in this ballpark, but I’m viewing them as secondary options on this slate.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.334 0.339 0.174 32.1% 11.5% 18.4% 44.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.316 0.347 44.7% 16.3% 30.0% 36.3% OF $5,200 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.320 0.305 0.256 29.3% 6.7% 12.0% 34.6% SS $4,000 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.366 0.363 0.290 38.0% 10.6% 28.0% 45.8% OF $4,800 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.385 0.418 0.249 37.2% 7.1% 23.2% 41.9% C $4,100 C $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.345 0.300 0.206 33.7% 16.3% 20.2% 42.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.310 0.311 0.243 42.1% 6.3% 45.0% 36.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.354 0.244 0.242 36.1% 2.1% 21.3% 50.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.354 0.395 0.209 32.4% 8.3% 20.8% 32.4% 2B $3,500 2B $4,000 N/A N/A

For me, it’s the usual suspects of Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez if I’m playing Yankees bats. I also don’t mind Aaron Hicks if he cracks the lineup. My preference would be to just stack the Yankees if I were attacking this spot, and it’ll be interesting to see what kind of ownership they draw with some gas cans on this slate (Hi James Shields and Alex Cobb).

Elite Plays – Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Chicago Cubs
whitesoxmlb James Shields cubsmlb Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-260 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.360 0.373 31.2% 12.9% 16.1% 40.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.240 0.255 25.0% 3.4% 31.6% 53.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.353 34.9% 7.8% 20.4% 35.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.337 29.5% 9.7% 20.2% 42.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 22 of 27 Salary Rank: 24 of 27 Salary Rank: 22 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3%
2018 7 5.61 5.14 13.3% 10.6% 38.3% 32.4% 16.9%
L14 2 4.00 2.84 20.9% 4.7% 37.5% 21.9% 15.6%

Shields has a career low 13.3% K% with a 32.4% hard hit rate. The silver lining is that he’s allowing just 0.64 HR/9 so he’s been able to limit the long ball so far this season, but I just can’t recommend him at this stage of his career.

Quick Breakdown: Shields possesses more risk than upside and is a pass for me.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 4 of 27 Salary Rank: 8 of 27 Salary Rank: 7 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.07 4.33 23.6% 7.9% 46.2% 28.1% 21.4%
2018 7 4.84 2.82 18.8% 10.3% 39.6% 30.7% 17.5%
L14 2 5.42 1.64 18.0% 14.0% 38.7% 33.3% 15.2%

Lester is one of my favorite pitchers on this early slate for all formats. The White Sox lead the majors with a 28.5% K% against left-handed pitchers, and they also lost leadoff hitter Yoan Moncada to an injury recently. There’s certainly a few right-handed bats Lester will have to navigate around, but there is a lot of upside in this matchup. Keep an eye out for the wind in Wrigley, as that matters a lot for this ballpark. If we see the wind blowing in, that’s an even bigger boost for Lester.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is in play for all formats and has one of the best matchups a left-handed pitcher can have.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.268 0.255 0.083 26.4% 3.4% 17.8% 59.5% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,300 CF $6,800
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.245 0.288 0.100 20.0% 5.9% 25.4% 47.3% 3B $3,100 3B $3,300 2B $6,400
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.410 0.325 0.261 42.3% 5.6% 20.3% 45.1% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.390 0.345 0.182 31.3% 19.6% 21.4% 43.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,600
5 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.350 0.340 0.202 38.6% 4.8% 25.4% 35.2% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,500
6 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.178 0.356 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
7 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.365 0.435 0.255 39.4% 8.2% 30.4% 34.0% 3B $3,500 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,600
8 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.327 0.289 0.189 33.1% 1.5% 23.6% 49.7% SS $3,100 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
9 James Shields RIGHT 0.000 P $6,500 P $5,000 P $9,900

Because the White Sox are so strikeout prone to left-handed pitchers, and because I still think Lester is an above-average pitcher, this isn’t a spot I want to crazy with White Sox batters. Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo and Matt Davidson are batters that appeal the most to me for their power, but this is a spot where I’d only look for one-offs if I wanted exposure to this game. You can also run against Lester, so Tim Anderson (10 steals) and Leury Garcia (6 steals) are interesting if you think they can get on base and take advantage of this flaw in Lester’s game. I’m personally siding with the Lester side of this matchup.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Welington Castillo, Matt Davidson

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.342 0.320 0.149 33.0% 11.2% 14.7% 50.5% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,300
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.370 0.407 0.240 33.3% 12.9% 19.8% 39.2% 3B $5,300 3B $5,300 IF/OF $9,400
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.398 0.286 0.218 34.2% 12.8% 12.3% 40.2% 1B $4,300 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
4 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.304 0.326 0.227 31.5% 5.3% 27.5% 47.7% 2B $4,400 2B $4,400 2B $8,200
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.321 0.329 0.199 33.1% 7.2% 23.4% 51.2% C $3,000 C $4,100 IF/OF $8,400
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.369 0.352 0.285 37.5% 11.4% 28.3% 41.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.287 0.262 0.155 31.8% 6.5% 22.2% 38.6% SS $3,200 SS $3,300 SS $6,800
8 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.332 0.283 0.263 35.2% 10.8% 35.4% 40.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.266 0.478 0.068 37.5% 3.8% 34.6% 63.0% P $9,000 P $8,800 P $16,700

Shields hasn’t been as terrible this season as he’s been over the past few years, but I still want to pick on him. I prefer the left-handed bats, so Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist would be my priorities. If you decide to stack this side up, you have to include Kris Bryant as well. Bryant’s splits against right-handers haven’t been great this season, but if you look at the larger sample over his major league career, he’s just a fantastic hitter regardless of the pitcher’s handedness.

Elite Plays – Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Chris Archer baltimoremlb David Hess
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.323 42.1% 8.6% 26.9% 43.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.300 37.7% 5.3% 29.6% 40.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $17,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 27 Salary Rank: 5 of 27 Salary Rank: 5 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2%
2018 8 3.65 5.32 24.4% 6.1% 41.2% 41.2% 15.4%
L14 3 3.33 3.44 24.7% 2.6% 33.9% 44.6% 12.5%

Archer’s 24.4% K% is great, but his 1.18 HR/9 ratio and 41.2% hard contact rate is a bit concerning. The Orioles, however, have really struggled this season against right-handed pitching. They own a 25.1% K% against right-handed pitching, which is the 5th highest in baseball. They also have just a wRC+ of 76. While I love the matchup, I still have a hard time advocating that Archer is a must-play in this spot. In cash games I much prefer Jon Lester as a pivot, but Archer has fantastic tournament appeal. It would not shock me if he gave up a few home runs, but it would also not shock me if he struck out 7-8 batters in this game.

Quick Breakdown: Archer has some red flags in his underlying numbers where I don’t feel great about using him in cash games (I’d prefer Jon Lester at a simimlar price tag), but Archer has strikeout upside in this matchup and for that reason alone, I do feel he’s an option in tournaments.

David Hess
david-hess-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

The Orioles announced late on Friday night that David Hess will start. He’s a 5th round rookie from the 2014 draft and is 24 years old. He’s had some minor issues with walks so that’s a slight concern. He isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher either, but he’s very cheap against a weak Rays offense, and that’s the main appeal here. In Triple-A this season he’s pitched 29.2 innings with a 2.12 ERA and 29 strikeouts. He’s only averaging about 5 innings per start so I don’t know how few he’ll go in this game. He’s a better option than Troy Scribner if you want to punt at pitcher but I don’t feel great about it considering he’s not a huge prospect.

Quick Breakdown: Hess is cheap but isn’t a huge strikeout pitcher. The matchup is good but it’s a bit too risky for me.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.343 0.374 0.174 28.9% 8.6% 12.5% 41.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,500
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.336 0.349 0.167 36.0% 5.3% 24.9% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,800 1B $7,200
3 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.284 0.286 0.165 40.6% 6.5% 18.3% 50.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,600
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.330 0.440 0.178 34.5% 4.8% 18.0% 52.9% C $2,800 C $4,000 C $7,400
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.303 0.288 0.106 30.0% 6.9% 23.6% 46.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,800
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.328 0.350 0.134 36.7% 16.5% 26.8% 47.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,300 2B $6,500
7 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.296 0.330 0.101 31.7% 11.2% 27.8% 49.3% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,500
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.270 0.261 0.091 21.1% 9.6% 18.6% 48.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,500
9 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.343 0.265 0.214 39.9% 7.5% 29.2% 37.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,600

There’s some merit to a Rays stack knowing Hess doesn’t have overpowering stuff and may have jitters in his debut. I’d probably focus my attention on Denard Span and C.J. Cron, but I don’t view them as elite plays.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Denard Span

Stackability – Orange

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.357 0.313 0.195 34.7% 7.0% 23.4% 50.0% OF $3,200 1B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.321 0.194 31.9% 3.1% 18.4% 43.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,300
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.369 0.329 0.210 36.2% 8.6% 16.6% 42.4% SS $4,700 SS $4,800 3B $9,500
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.311 0.406 0.182 33.6% 3.7% 21.2% 42.4% 2B $3,500 2B $3,500 2B $6,500
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.336 0.338 0.205 41.5% 12.1% 34.6% 40.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.301 0.306 0.154 31.6% 7.0% 25.5% 43.2% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,800 DH $7,600
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.368 0.439 0.204 36.6% 11.2% 27.6% 40.8% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,500
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.301 0.277 0.096 28.9% 12.8% 21.9% 58.1% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,500
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.247 0.260 0.137 25.2% 2.9% 28.4% 47.3% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,700

Chris Archer can be home run prone at times so there’s a lot of merit to chasing the power bats on the Orioles. In large field tournaments, I’m more than fine rolling out some Baltimore stacks too. Chris Davis and Manny Machado stand out to me, while Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini all hit right-handed pitching very well too. If he’s in the lineup, I also don’t mind Pedro Alvarez as a GPP dart-throw if he’s back in the lineup.

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Pedro Alvarez (GPP if in the lineup), Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Washington at Arizona – 4:05 PM ET

Washington Arizona
washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg arizonamlb Troy Scribner
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-160 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.275 23.1% 8.1% 26.8% 48.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.427 40.0% 15.2% 17.4% 23.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.281 31.7% 4.7% 30.9% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.311 30.8% 5.7% 18.9% 25.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $13,900 Salary: $26,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 27 Salary Rank: 1 of 27 Salary Rank: 1 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 3.37 2.52 29.1% 6.7% 46.8% 27.3% 21.4%
2018 8 3.15 3.52 27.6% 5.6% 47.5% 27.0% 22.7%
L14 3 2.91 4.43 28.4% 4.9% 50.0% 27.8% 22.2%

The price tag on Stephen Strasburg may be hard to stomach, but he’s the clear top pitcher on the early slate. His strikeout rate is hovering at 27.6%, which is just a tick below his career average. He now faces a Diamondbacks team in Arizona with the humidor in full effect. The Diamondbacks at home just aren’t as scary of a matchup as they used to be. This season, the Diamondbacks have a wRC+ of just 88 against right-handed pitching and have the 6th highest strikeout rate. The only argument against Strasburg is the price. His $10,000 price tag on FanDuel is reasonable, but $13,900 is very high over at DraftKings. On DraftKings there’s a greater case to fade him for two mid-to-upper tier pitchers if you decide his price tag doesn’t allow you to fit in the bats you want on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is the clear top pitcher for the early slate. His price tag of $13,900 is incredibly high on DraftKings though, so I will not go as far as calling him a must-play because of that (on FanDuel, I do consider him my SP1 where he’s cheaper).

Troy Scribner
troy-scribner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: of 27 Salary Rank: 27 of 27 Salary Rank: 25 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.49 4.18 18.2% 10.1% 24.6% 34.8% 20.3%

Scribner is not available on FanDuel and is dirt-cheap on DraftKings/FantasyDraft. Still, I don’t think I can get myself to play him in this spot start. In 23.2 innings in the majors last year, Scribner allowed seven home runs. This season in Triple-A, he holds a 5.68 ERA. He has struck out 24 batters in 25.1 innings this season and the strikeout numbers in the minors are impressive, but I’m still a bit concerned it will translate to any kind of success in the majors. If you’re playing something like 150 teams then I think there’s a case to YOLO with him at his price tag on a few teams. But outside of that scenario I think this is a spot where we should watch from the sidelines.

Quick Breakdown: The price tag of Scribner is appealing and opens up a ton of possibilities, but there’s too much risk here.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.441 0.435 0.348 38.2% 18.4% 16.9% 36.5% OF $4,400 OF $5,700 RF $11,100
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.330 0.338 0.183 29.8% 8.2% 18.4% 52.1% SS $3,800 SS $4,900 IF/OF $9,100
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.364 0.493 0.196 32.7% 12.9% 13.6% 35.0% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 3B $8,300
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.381 0.390 0.240 40.0% 6.8% 23.6% 46.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,300
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.384 0.561 0.296 39.8% 8.8% 23.4% 34.7% 1B $3,900 1B/OF $5,000 1B $10,000
6 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.319 0.376 0.162 31.8% 4.5% 20.7% 57.1% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,300
7 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.235 0.306 0.049 11.9% 14.9% 25.7% 38.1% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,500
8 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.226 0.296 0.058 16.7% 1.8% 24.6% 64.9% P $10,000 P $13,900 P $26,600
9 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.290 0.257 0.181 31.6% 8.2% 31.5% 43.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 CF $7,300

We still don’t know a lot of Scribner at the major league level but he was homer-prone in his brief stint last season. I’m willing to attack him with the power bats regardless of handedness and hope the Nationals can get a hold of a few. Bryce Harper and Matt Adams would be my first targets, while Trea Turner would be a part of any stack I build. It’s worth noting Turner was moved back into the leadoff spot on Friday and promptly hit a homer, so we’ll need to monitor if that change sticks. Outside of those three, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman would be secondary plays if you’re chasing some right-handed power.

Elite Plays – Matt Adams, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.335 0.402 0.183 38.1% 8.5% 16.8% 51.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
2 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.342 0.376 0.182 40.5% 12.7% 21.1% 34.6% 3B $2,800 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.379 0.256 0.238 40.6% 13.8% 25.0% 46.4% 1B $3,800 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.353 0.455 0.213 38.0% 8.4% 19.5% 41.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.351 0.333 0.245 35.1% 13.0% 29.3% 43.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.314 0.272 0.109 24.7% 9.4% 14.5% 44.5% 2B $2,200 2B $3,000 SS $6,000
7 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.270 0.348 0.159 29.8% 6.9% 23.5% 41.8% SS $2,900 SS $2,900 SS $5,400
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.407 0.275 0.194 53.4% 16.7% 34.2% 36.6% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,700
9 Troy Scribner RIGHT P $4,000 P $8,000

In cash games I see no reason to play anyone against Strasburg. However, I will say there’s some merit to chasing one-off power against Strasburg in large-field tournaments because the Diamondbacks’ bats will likely be low owned. David Peralta and Alex Avila will hold the platoon-advantage and hit right-handed pitching well, while A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt need to be considered for their power. Goldy has been in a huge slump this season and at this point I’m unlikely to chase him even in large field tournaments until he shows signs of life. His last homer came on April 15th, nearly a month ago.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Alex Avila (GPP), David Peralta (GPP), A.J. Pollock (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Boston at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb David Price torontomlb Marco Estrada
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-121 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.242 0.279 19.7% 5.0% 16.0% 53.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.292 24.8% 7.4% 21.3% 32.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.334 37.7% 9.3% 24.5% 36.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.373 0.342 31.4% 9.9% 21.1% 27.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 12 of 27 Salary Rank: 14 of 27 Salary Rank: 13 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7%
2018 7 4.64 5.11 20.1% 10.1% 42.7% 34.6% 20.9%
L14 2 5.13 11.57 18.8% 12.5% 37.5% 34.4% 21.9%

David Price has been dealing with carpal tunnel syndrome (too much Fortnite?) and threw a 40-pitch bullpen session on Thursday. We’re getting a big Price discount here (Oh, pun not intended!). The carpal tunnel diagnosis is somewhat good news in the sense that he’s not dealing with something more serious. Still, he was scratched from his last start because of the numbing in his hand, and there’s legitimate risk it could flair up any moment during a game. Price hasn’t been sharp this season and there’s too much risk here for cash games, even with the discount. If you want to to a chance on Price in tournaments I can see the merit in that, but this is also a right-handed heavy Blue Jays team that has the 8th lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, so it’s not a great spot.

Quick Breakdown: Price’s carpal tunnel syndrome combined with the fact it’ll be a right-handed heavy Blue Jays lineup is enough for me to pass on him in all formats. I understand it if you want to take a shot in tournaments at his discounted price, but I plan on looking elsewhere.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 16 of 27 Salary Rank: 21 of 27 Salary Rank: 19 of 27
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4%
2018 7 5.15 5.21 17.9% 8.6% 26.1% 34.5% 17.7%
L14 3 5.58 5.06 16.2% 8.8% 19.6% 39.2% 15.7%

Marco Estrada is the epitome of a boom/bust pitcher. He’s coming off a game where he threw six shutout innings against the Rays, but this Red Sox offense is a different beast. The Red Sox have the second lowest K% against right-handed pitching, so this is not a spot where Estrada has a lot of strikeout upside. He’s also allowed nine home runs in just 38 innings, which equates to a 2.13 HR/9 ratio. It’s definitely possible a lot of his long fly balls turn into outs and he escapes this game without too much damage, but that’s not a risk I feel comfortable taking.

Quick Breakdown: Estrada faces a Red Sox offense that doesn’t offer much strikeout upside. He’s also been home-run prone once again this season, and that’s enough to scare me off him.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.370 0.543 0.219 38.8% 9.8% 12.1% 38.0% OF $4,900 OF $5,800 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.344 0.266 0.181 34.8% 10.3% 16.3% 37.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 LF $8,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.366 0.350 0.180 35.2% 8.0% 19.6% 42.5% 1B $4,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.424 0.420 0.339 49.2% 9.5% 26.4% 42.5% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 RF $9,800
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.298 0.352 0.149 33.3% 7.7% 19.0% 47.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,400 SS $8,600
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.398 0.463 0.232 39.2% 9.5% 19.6% 41.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,200
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.270 0.263 0.160 25.3% 3.1% 12.8% 51.9% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,300 3B $6,700
8 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.315 0.337 0.197 38.8% 6.8% 23.6% 47.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,700
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.267 0.347 0.116 32.1% 7.3% 25.4% 36.6% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $5,100

Marco Estrada has actually shown some reverse-splits tendencies, meaning right-handers have hit him better. This lines up to be a good spot for Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez. I will point out that Betts is only 3-for-26 with no home runs in his career against Estrada, so that’s at least something to note if you decide to play Betts or go with a Red Sox stack. Estrada usually isn’t someone who gets blown up, so I’m not necessarily a huge fan of the Red Sox stack. With Estrada I’d be more chasing the home run, but we just have no idea who will hit it. I’m more likely to use the Red Sox as one-offs to fill out my roster, but that’s just my approach.

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.313 0.405 0.189 37.5% 10.3% 26.2% 36.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 CF $7,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.393 0.247 0.355 42.5% 12.7% 23.8% 40.0% 3B $4,100 3B $4,400 3B $8,100
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.335 0.366 0.132 28.7% 8.2% 9.7% 45.2% 3B $3,200 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,700
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.366 0.391 0.259 37.1% 7.8% 37.5% 37.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.387 0.346 0.202 34.3% 11.4% 14.0% 39.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.339 0.404 0.222 32.9% 5.5% 14.5% 40.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.326 0.107 34.5% 15.4% 26.0% 40.4% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,700
8 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.364 0.312 0.217 43.6% 6.7% 22.4% 55.6% 1B $2,100 1B $3,000 1B $5,700
9 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.336 0.373 0.000 31.6% 4.3% 13.0% 63.2% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,700 2B $5,700

This Blue Jays team hasn’t been as dominant against left-handed pitching as they have been in previous seasons. On Friday, Chris Sale struck out 15 Blue Jays batters over nine innings. This is also the same team that got no-hit by James Paxton not too long ago. I don’t mind one-offs of Josh Donaldson, Teoscar Hernandez or Kevin Pillar against David Price since they all hit left-handed pitching well and will hold the platoon-advantage. I’m okay with them in both cash games and tournaments. In large-field tournaments, I do think a Blue Jays stack is interesting given David Price hasn’t been sharp this season and maybe the carpal tunnel returns mid-game.

Keep an eye on Luke Maile too if you need a punt catcher. He’s homered now in back-to-back games including Friday’s game winner. He’s been starting over Russ Martin but it’s unclear whether he’ll start again here.

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar

Secondary Plays – Luke Maile (if he starts), Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

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About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS