MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 19th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-05-19 15:53:51

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Toronto
			Sean Manaea							Sam Gaviglio
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-105							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.267	14.6%	3.3%	24.6%	46.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.375	40.0%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.228	0.354	42.4%	3.5%	19.7%	43.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.072	0.143	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	60.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Manaea
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29
	2017	29	4.51	4.37	20.2%	8.0%	44.1%	33.3%	14.8%
	2018	9	3.71	2.35	20.9%	3.4%	44.4%	35.8%	17.3%
	L14	3	4.01	5.60	15.6%	1.3%	42.4%	34.4%	13.1%

Sean Manaea got off to a flying start this season, but he’s hit a rougher patch of late. He’s allowed at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 3 starts. They were tough matchups with the Mariners, Astros and Red Sox, and he’ll face another decent lineup today in Toronto. Manaea has been about a league average strikeout pitcher in the majors historically, and this year is no different (20.9%). He’s been excellent in terms of limiting walks (3.4%), but he’s allowed plenty of hard contact and his 3.71 SIERA is quite a bit worse than his 2.35 ERA. Manaea is a lefty with a wide platoon split, and 38 of the 45 homers he’s allowed in his career have come off the bats of right-handed hitters. You can play him as a GPP dart, but he’s far from a core option.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea doesn’t have a ton of upside and he’s overpriced for this matchup against the Jays.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		10 of 29
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%
	2018	0	2.42	2.08	33.3%	5.6%	30.0%	20.0%	20.0%
	L14	0	2.42	2.08	33.3%	5.6%	30.0%	20.0%	20.0%

Sam Gaviglio has pitched twice out of the Toronto bullpen this season, but this will be his first start. The 27-year-old split time between the Mariners and Royals last season and finished with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP across 16 appearances, including 13 starts. He’s a right-hander with a slight ground ball lean and below-average strikeout ability. We don’t have a use sample size of major league data with which to work, but he has allowed 16 homers in 78.2 innings at this level. Gaviglio’s season high in the majors is 44 pitches, so we shouldn’t necessarily expect him to pitch deep into this one. He’s cheap, but today’s matchup against a powerful Oakland offense presents far more downside than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Gaviglio is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s have a powerful offense and Sam Gaviglio isn’t a guy that misses many bats. Oakland hitters are getting a major park upgrade going into Rogers Centre this afternoon and there’s enough thunder up-and-down the lineup to where you can take several different routes if you want to stack them. While lefties are preferred against Gaviglio, it’s not like he’s had a ton of success against fellow righties, either. Khris Davis and the Matts (Olson, Chapman, Joyce) stand out as strong plays. Marcus Semien is also a decent value if he finds himself in the leadoff role.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.298	0.276	0.081	28.4%	6.8%	21.8%	47.4%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.365	0.348	0.204	36.0%	18.1%	22.8%	33.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,500
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.385	0.354	0.273	38.6%	11.2%	18.4%	37.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,400
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.433	0.400	0.295	50.6%	8.1%	23.5%	36.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,900
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.384	0.386	0.221	51.6%	11.8%	33.6%	32.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,700
6	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.369	0.301	0.205	38.8%	11.7%	25.0%	39.2%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,600
7	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.371	0.434	0.153	41.8%	6.4%	21.3%	47.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	RF	$5,700
8	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.318	0.338	0.127	38.6%	10.0%	27.1%	36.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,600
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.331	0.331	0.107	40.9%	6.0%	12.0%	40.0%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,500

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce, Marcus Semien

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Lucroy, Jed Lowrie

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

Sean Manaea has a good reputation and he’s not really a pitcher I go out of my way to target unless he’s in a particularly bad matchup. The Blue Jays have an underrated lineup with some power, and Manaea has enjoyed some pretty good batted ball fortune so far (.205 BABIP allowed). The lefty has allowed 7 homers this year, including 5 to righties. I won’t recommend Toronto as a stack here, but I do think you can pick your spots with some right-handed bats here as one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.430	0.366	0.227	36.7%	10.2%	28.6%	50.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,700
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.302	0.264	0.176	42.9%	5.6%	36.1%	52.4%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,200
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.339	0.339	0.173	30.0%	11.5%	21.3%	52.5%	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,700
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.380	0.322	0.228	30.0%	10.8%	10.8%	40.0%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,300	2B	$6,300
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.285	0.335	0.192	36.4%	1.8%	16.4%	43.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,300
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.327	0.309	0.045	33.3%	17.9%	25.0%	60.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
7	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.310	0.351	0.133	45.5%	11.4%	25.7%	54.5%	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,800	1B	$5,600
8	Anthony Alford	RIGHT	0.206	0.236	0.000	0.0%	18.2%	45.5%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.029	0.152	1.000	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Cincinnati
			Kyle Hendricks							Luis Castillo
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.360	28.1%	7.4%	22.2%	47.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.387	0.377	43.3%	8.2%	23.5%	43.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.347	32.0%	2.5%	16.4%	50.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.326	32.9%	6.8%	22.3%	53.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		4 of 29
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%
	2018	8	3.90	3.20	18.7%	4.4%	49.3%	30.5%	22.7%
	L14	2	3.68	3.21	17.3%	0.0%	42.9%	34.9%	11.6%

Kyle Hendricks is the opposite of flashy, as he’s a pitch-to-contact guy that will go deep into games and rarely gets blasted. He’s allowed more than 3 earned runs just once in 8 starts this season, and he hasn’t pitched fewer than 5 innings in any outing. Hendricks is about a league average strikeout pitcher that limits hard contact and leans on ground balls (49.6% career GB rate). He’s a right-hander that typically shuts down his fellow righties while being a little bit more vulnerable against left-handed hitters. Today’s matchup with the Reds isn’t necessarily ideal given the bandbox of a ballpark, but his ground ball tendencies should help him in this environment. If he can get through the likes of Joey Votto and some of their other decent lefties, Hendricks should be in for a decent enough outing.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is a fine option given his price point, but there are other pitching options with higher upside in the short early slate today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Castillo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	15	3.63	3.12	27.3%	8.9%	58.8%	29.7%	22.1%
	2018	9	3.86	6.02	22.9%	7.5%	48.6%	37.9%	17.9%
	L14	2	2.30	3.09	34.9%	2.3%	40.7%	29.6%	18.5%

Luis Castillo was disappointing in his first few starts, but he appears to have rounded back into form. His velocity has been back up over his last few starts, and the results have followed. The young right-hander has at least 7 Ks in each of his last 3 outings. He’s also got a fairly long leash, as the Reds have let him throw 100 pitches or more 4 times already this season, including in 2 of his last 3 games. I’d expect Castillo’s K-rate to come up from 22.9% as the season goes on, as well. Today’s matchup with the Cubs in a homer-friendly park isn’t ideal, especially considering he’ll be facing a strong lineup that doesn’t collectively swing and miss very often. Still, he’s a bit underpriced given his talent level.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t typically go out of my way to target pitchers against the Cubs, even though Castillo is talented. You can take a shot in GPPs, but he feels unnecessary for cash.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

While I don’t have major interest in Castillo, he’s also not a guy I’m going to load up on bats against. It’s worth noting that he’s been considerably more vulnerable to lefties over the course of his brief big league career, so I’d probably limit by Cubs exposure to the guys that swing it from that side of the plate. That puts Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber in play, especially considering the favorable ballpark. You can also take a shot on someone like Ben Zobrist or Jason Heyward, but neither is a reliable enough hitter to be much more than a GPP secondary option.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.354	0.336	0.115	30.8%	11.6%	13.0%	50.0%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.428	0.457	0.194	38.3%	15.0%	14.2%	40.7%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,500	IF/OF	$11,100
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.379	0.354	0.161	35.1%	8.7%	10.7%	42.9%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,000
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.350	0.390	0.235	28.1%	6.1%	17.5%	45.1%	C	$3,400	C	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.393	0.372	0.327	36.5%	2.5%	24.4%	37.6%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,000
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.373	0.322	0.274	34.8%	15.2%	23.2%	53.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,400
7	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.256	0.310	0.081	23.6%	7.4%	24.7%	47.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.271	0.267	0.088	30.0%	11.4%	21.0%	33.8%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,600
9	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.128	0.032	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	42.9%	62.5%	P	$8,100	P	$8,100	P	$16,100

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Hendricks isn’t typically a pitcher against whom you want to be stacking bats. He’s been effective in limiting the damage against him and induces plenty of ground balls. Hendricks also isn’t a guy that allows much power, though he has already allowed 9 homers after surrendering just 17 all of last season. If you must play someone against Hendricks for some reason, then Joey Votto is the obvious play. I’d limit any Reds exposure to the left-handed bats, as Hendricks has held righties in check to the tune of a .261 wOBA in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.262	0.250	0.105	29.1%	3.0%	14.1%	41.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
2	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.379	0.288	0.080	38.1%	12.8%	14.5%	38.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.483	0.478	0.142	34.1%	15.5%	12.4%	31.9%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,200
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.358	0.379	0.207	42.0%	6.2%	16.3%	40.0%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,200
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.387	0.423	0.195	42.2%	7.0%	17.4%	35.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,300
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.353	0.339	0.271	35.1%	7.7%	17.9%	56.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,600
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.380	0.511	0.152	35.8%	12.8%	17.9%	37.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
8	Luis Castillo	RIGHT	0.257	0.140	0.111	42.9%	0.0%	22.2%	71.4%	P	$7,300	P	$7,000	P	$13,700
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.260	0.317	0.065	13.6%	13.9%	25.0%	52.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (cash), Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

LA Dodgers at Washington – 2:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Washington
			Ross Stripling							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-140							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.247	20.5%	6.8%	27.1%	36.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.317	0.330	30.7%	7.3%	22.7%	44.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.285	34.9%	7.9%	23.8%	47.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.219	0.339	28.1%	8.6%	21.5%	42.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ross Stripling
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	2	3.37	3.75	24.3%	6.3%	49.3%	27.0%	20.4%
	2018	3	3.49	2.20	25.4%	7.4%	42.5%	28.1%	20.7%
	L14	2	2.54	1.74	31.0%	4.8%	53.8%	18.5%	11.1%

Ross Stripling was slated to pitch last night before the game got rained out. Instead, the Dodgers and Nationals are slated to play a doubleheader today in D.C. Stripling was originally scheduled to face Max Scherzer, but he gets a bit of a break here with Tanner Roark on the other side, instead. The right-hander has served as a reliever for most of the season, but he’s been thrust into the rotation with so many injuries to the Dodgers’ staff. He’s pitched well this season, though his 3.47 SIERA suggests his 2.20 ERA is a little lucky. Stripling also has a strikeout rate north of 25%, but we can take that number with a grain of salt considering 11 of his 14 appearances have come out of the bullpen. He isn’t very stretched out, either, considering he hasn’t thrown more than 79 pitches in an outing so far this season. He’s likely to give Dave Roberts 4-5 innings today before giving way to the bullpen. Stripling is a right-hander with a pretty pronounced reverse split, which should help him against the likes of Bryce Harper and Matt Adams in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Stripling isn’t a bad pitcher, but he doesn’t pitch deep enough into games to warrant serious consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%
	2018	8	4.10	3.33	22.2%	7.9%	43.2%	29.5%	23.7%
	L14	2	3.40	2.70	24.5%	5.7%	52.8%	22.2%	22.2%

Tanner Roark is the DFS version of Taco Bell. It does its job in a pinch, but if you can find a better option, do that instead. Roark has just enough K upside to make him intriguing (22.2% this season), and he typically doesn’t get rocked or give up much hard contact at all. Roark has been death on righties in his career (.266 wOBA allowed), but lefties have proven more problematic. The current iteration of the Dodgers isn’t as potent as we’re used to seeing, but they do still have some notable left-handed bats like Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal and (occasionally) Joc Pederson.

Quick Breakdown: The Dodgers have been largely miserable this season, so Roark is in play if you need a guy that probably won’t get roasted.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are a team that has burned us plenty so far this season. Outside of Yasmani Grandal and Matt Kemp, there haven’t been many consistent sources of offense for this team. Today they draw a mediocre matchup with Tanner Roark, who has been quite tough on righties over the course of his career. There aren’t a ton of great offensive options on the early slate, though, so I think you can play some of the left-handed hitters against him. If you want to stack the Dodgers, I don’t hate throwing Justin Turner in there as a way to differentiate yourself. Turner is a good enough hitter to thrive in any matchup, but he’s GPP-only for me in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.345	0.383	0.167	32.6%	5.8%	27.5%	30.7%	SS	$4,000	OF/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.353	0.284	0.141	37.1%	14.9%	14.9%	44.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.487	0.739	0.000	71.4%	0.0%	0.0%	28.6%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.407	0.365	0.276	40.9%	10.9%	15.8%	46.5%	C	$3,000	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.337	0.313	0.245	37.4%	7.8%	20.7%	45.1%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.355	0.410	0.171	41.3%	3.5%	23.3%	39.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.277	0.056	0.143	29.0%	0.0%	11.4%	35.5%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.346	0.409	0.123	32.7%	6.4%	23.1%	34.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
9	Rich Hill	LEFT	0.054	0.000	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$7,200	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nats get a decent matchup today against Ross Stripling, who has been quite a bit more hittable as a starter this season than as a reliever. Despite the fact that he has reverse splits, I am never going to talk you out of playing Bryce Harper, who is arguably the second- or third-best hitter in all of baseball. Matt Adams is also in play for his home run potential, but I prefer guys like Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon from the other side of the plate here. It’ll be interesting to see how the Dodgers use their bullpen behind Stripling considering this is the first game of a doubleheader. I’m not over the moon about a potential Nationals stack, but, again, options are limited on a short slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.362	0.381	0.176	39.4%	13.7%	18.0%	54.8%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.500	0.526	0.389	47.5%	22.8%	14.2%	35.0%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.411	0.517	0.209	33.3%	13.0%	9.1%	35.6%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.451	0.480	0.383	44.3%	15.5%	20.6%	31.1%	1B	$3,800	1B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.326	0.319	0.190	39.5%	2.7%	18.0%	47.7%	2B	$3,300	2B/OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.765	0.765	1.000	60.0%	0.0%	16.7%	20.0%	1B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.305	0.380	0.091	27.3%	14.9%	16.4%	36.4%	C	$2,400	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.156	0.224	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	27.3%	85.7%	P	$8,400	P	$7,800	N/A	N/A
9	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.267	0.176	0.058	25.7%	10.3%	29.3%	53.0%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams, Mark Reynolds, Howie Kendrick

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								St. Louis
			Zach Eflin							John Gant
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-130							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.234	0.307	44.4%	5.9%	41.2%	12.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.339	60.9%	6.1%	24.2%	45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.205	0.269	22.7%	6.7%	20.0%	28.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.102	0.198	26.7%	5.3%	15.8%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zach Eflin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	2017	11	5.08	6.16	12.5%	4.3%	44.1%	33.3%	16.7%
	2018	2	3.59	0.71	27.7%	6.4%	24.1%	29.0%	19.4%
	L14	1	3.59	0.00	33.3%	11.1%	7.1%	26.7%	20.0%

Zach Eflin was skipped in his last turn in the rotation because of a rain postponement. The 24-year-old righty has pitched well in his 2 starts this season, as he’s allowed just a single earned run in 12.2 innings against the Marlins and Giants combined. He’s also struck out 13 while allowing just 7 hits. Young pitchers tend to improve, and there’s certainly a chance Eflin has turned a corner. Still, I’m going to need to see more out of him before becoming a believer. He has a career strikeout rate of just 13.2% in limited time at the big league level, and he never really showed massive K potential in the minor leagues, either. He does get the benefit of facing a Cardinals lineup today that is heavy on righties, plus Busch Stadium is favorable for pitchers. I’m likely to avoid Eflin until we see more of his work, but I won’t talk you out of trying him as a flier if you believe he’s legit.

Quick Breakdown: The sample size is still too small for me to fully buy into Eflin, but I’m intrigued enough to say he’s a fine GPP try.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
John Gant
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,500
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		24 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29
	2017	2	5.57	4.67	14.5%	13.2%	53.7%	29.6%	25.9%
	2018	1	3.80	4.15	21.2%	5.8%	43.2%	47.4%	15.8%
	L14	1	3.74	5.40	23.3%	7.0%	41.4%	56.7%	3.3%

John Gant has made 4 appearances in the majors this season, one of which was a spot start. He’s taking the place of Carlos Martinez today. In 13 big league innings, Gant has posted a 4.15 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.00. He was mediocre in his lone start of the year, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits in 5.1 innings with 5 strikeouts against the Twins earlier this month. In 31 career appearances at this level, Gant has a K-rate just over 20% and a walk rate nearing 10%. Opposing hitters have also been crushing the ball against him this season (47.4% hard contact). I don’t hate the idea of playing him at his dirt-cheap price tag, but the matchup with a solid Phillies offense isn’t all that appealing for him.

Quick Breakdown: You can punt on Gant, but there’s minimal upside.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

I mentioned that Gant has surrendered tons of hard contact this season, which obviously bodes well for the Philly hitters. This is a substantial park downgrade for them, but I still expect them to be able to put some runs on the board against Gant. Lefties have enjoyed more success against Gant historically, but the numbers for righties since he debuted in 2016 have been fine, too. I don’t think a full-on Phillies stack is the optimal route here, but I do like a few of their hitters as one-offs. The red-hot Odubel Herrera stands out, while Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams and Rhys Hoskins, as usual, are also in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.333	0.367	0.177	30.4%	13.6%	26.5%	44.7%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
2	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.322	0.352	0.130	31.5%	13.3%	25.6%	53.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,300
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.388	0.474	0.182	26.2%	10.6%	14.2%	44.0%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,200
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.408	0.364	0.228	37.9%	14.8%	30.3%	25.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,100
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.395	0.422	0.252	34.8%	15.2%	13.6%	36.4%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,300
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.370	0.405	0.217	24.7%	6.1%	16.2%	51.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
7	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.326	0.244	0.119	30.7%	6.5%	24.7%	33.9%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,500
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.285	0.313	0.136	38.2%	4.3%	45.7%	58.8%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$7,900	P	$7,200	P	$14,800

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cardinals today because it’s hard to know what to expect out of their opposing pitcher, Zach Eflin. Eflin’s been excellent in his first 2 starts, but his shoddy track record gives me reason to believe he should come back down to earth at some point. The Cardinals lineup is heavy with righties, but it’s worth noting that most of them are solid hitters. So, even if Eflin has the platoon advantage over most of them, I don’t think playing Cardinal RHBs is out of the question. I won’t talk you out of a quality righty like a Marcell Ozuna or a Tommy Pham, but someone like Matt Carpenter from the left side looks slightly better.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.400	0.439	0.242	44.8%	15.2%	25.0%	43.3%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
2	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.379	0.272	0.167	42.2%	14.7%	29.3%	25.4%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,500	3B	$6,600
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.441	0.402	0.165	38.2%	9.2%	11.5%	52.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.339	0.334	0.081	50.6%	3.9%	25.0%	46.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,300
5	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.321	0.360	0.103	34.6%	13.0%	28.3%	38.5%	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,300
6	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.306	0.264	0.176	31.3%	12.6%	16.8%	36.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,600
7	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.275	0.265	0.143	28.3%	8.7%	20.7%	52.6%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,800
8	Francisco Pena	RIGHT	0.157	0.132	0.000	15.4%	4.8%	28.6%	61.5%	C	$2,100	C	$2,900	C	$5,400
9	John Gant	RIGHT	0.034	0.044	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,800	P	$9,500

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								San Francisco
			Jon Gray							Chris Stratton
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -100							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.336	40.9%	3.9%	27.9%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.394	37.9%	12.5%	15.0%	37.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.283	28.2%	6.8%	25.6%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.369	49.1%	8.1%	26.7%	34.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	2017	20	3.74	3.67	24.3%	6.5%	48.9%	28.4%	22.7%
	2018	9	3.23	4.85	26.7%	5.4%	45.6%	34.2%	18.1%
	L14	2	2.12	4.38	34.0%	3.8%	54.5%	42.4%	15.2%

Jon Gray got blasted in his last outing against the Brewers, conceding 6 runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings. He did strike out 10, though, in an otherwise forgettable outing. He gets a much more favorable set of circumstances today, as he gets the biggest park upgrade imaginable going from Coors Field to AT&T Park. Gray has posted an excellent strikeout rate of 26.7% so far along with minimal walks. His 3.23 SIERA tells us that he’s pitched better than the 4.85 ERA would lead you to believe. Gray has shown a little reverse split to this point in his career, but more of the hard contact against him has come from lefties. The Giants weren’t a team we really wanted to pick on last year, but they’re striking out far more this season. San Francisco has a collective K-rate of 25.1% against righties this season, which is the fifth-highest mark in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Given the K upside, park upgrade and discounted price tag, Gray is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Stratton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:		24 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29
	2017	10	4.83	3.68	19.9%	10.9%	42.8%	28.4%	21.0%
	2018	9	4.77	4.88	19.9%	10.7%	36.2%	42.3%	9.9%
	L14	3	4.88	6.89	19.4%	11.1%	36.0%	48.0%	6.0%

Chris Stratton is about as average a right-handed starter as you’ll find. His 4.77 SIERA is right in lockstep with his 4.88 ERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a hard contact rate over 42%. His 19.9% strikeout rate is average. He walks too many guys (career BB% over 10%). Stratton has been considerably better against righties than lefties in his career, and his K-rate drops off a cliff against left-handed hitters. He does get the benefit of facing a weak Rockies offense away from Coors today, so there’s at least a chance Stratton puts up a respectable line today. It’s a strong spot for run prevention, but Stratton doesn’t really have much strikeout upside.

Quick Breakdown: Stratton has a good matchup in a favorable park today, but if you’re looking for upside allow me to recommend the other starter in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw a matchup with a vulnerable arm in Chris Stratton, but it’s always difficult to get too excited for bats at AT&T Park. If you absolutely must roster some Rockies for some reason, I’d go with those that swing it from the left side. That Charlie Blackmon guy is pretty good, and I suppose you can take a chance on someone like Gerardo Parra or Carlos Gonzalez if you’re shopping in the discount aisle. Nolan Arenado has home run upside in any matchup, but I’m generally cool on Colorado here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.388	0.400	0.302	34.9%	14.7%	22.5%	39.7%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,800
2	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.317	0.342	0.100	28.6%	8.0%	11.5%	42.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,500
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.365	0.370	0.202	36.1%	11.5%	25.0%	34.4%	3B	$4,800	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,400
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.290	0.213	0.270	27.7%	5.8%	26.1%	36.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	RF	$6,000
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.368	0.414	0.219	45.3%	9.0%	30.6%	29.0%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,300
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.262	0.303	0.163	31.8%	2.1%	31.3%	65.1%	1B	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,200	LF	$6,500
7	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.264	0.363	0.133	14.3%	11.3%	20.8%	60.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500
8	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.116	0.143	0.000	10.5%	0.0%	13.6%	68.4%	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,800	SS	$5,600
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.240	0.232	0.100	0.0%	9.1%	36.4%	66.7%	P	$8,100	P	$7,600	P	$14,800

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, David Dahl

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants’ offense is improved from a run production standpoint this season, but they’re striking out more and they draw an ugly matchup against an ace-level pitcher in Jon Gray. While Gray has shown a slight reverse split, I’d still be more comfortable attacking him with a power bat on the left side. The Giants don’t have many of these, but I don’t mind Brandon Belt as a one-off. Again, though, this is a terrible ballpark for offensive production and I’d rather play Gray than play Giants against him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.283	0.265	0.112	23.8%	5.3%	27.7%	36.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,700
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.414	0.486	0.117	50.7%	15.8%	19.3%	30.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,500
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.356	0.416	0.082	35.2%	7.6%	15.2%	50.7%	C	$2,900	C	$3,800	C	$7,700
4	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.465	0.419	0.357	51.4%	13.2%	21.1%	12.3%	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,300
5	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.313	0.305	0.170	48.8%	0.0%	24.3%	38.8%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,500
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.334	0.435	0.087	45.1%	4.0%	23.2%	37.7%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.237	0.352	0.048	40.9%	8.5%	44.7%	31.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,400
8	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.310	0.279	0.051	24.2%	4.8%	14.3%	59.4%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,400
9	Chris Stratton	RIGHT	0.130	0.162	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	54.5%	66.7%	P	$6,000	P	$4,900	P	$9,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 19th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Oakland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce, Marcus Semien

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Lucroy, Jed Lowrie

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (cash), Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

LA Dodgers at Washington – 2:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams, Mark Reynolds, Howie Kendrick

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, Tommy Pham

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Colorado at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, David Dahl

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – RED

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