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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 15th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-15 14:41:17

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Texas Baltimore
Article Image Mike Minor Article Image **
LEFT **
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.293 33.9% 86.3 14.9% 51.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.375 43.5% 89.5 20.4% 32.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 33.3% 30.0% 66.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Minor
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 10 of 21 Salary Rank: 20 of 21 Salary Rank: 15 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 3.16 2.55 28.7% 7.2% 42.4% 27.6% 22.5% 94.4 11.9%
2018 16 4.31 4.63 19.4% 5.8% 35.9% 41.6% 16.1% 92.3 9.8%
L14 2 4.63 2.08 18.0% 6.0% 31.6% 39.5% 5.3% 92.5 9.3%

Mike Minor has pitched like an average lefty this season. His 19.4% strikeout rate is nothing special, while his 4.30 SIERA isn’t disastrous, either. That said, Minor is a fly ball pitcher allowing a hard contact rate over 41% on the year, as well. He’s conceded 15 home runs and has a wide platoon split. He’s held lefties down, but righties have a .339 wOBA and they’ve accounted for 13 of those dingers. Nobody would mistake the Orioles for an elite offense, but they do have some potent right-handed bats.

Quick Breakdown: Minor isn’t the worst option on the board, but he comes with plenty of risk.

#VALUE!
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,900
Salary Rank: of 21 Salary Rank: of 21 Salary Rank: of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 8.34 0.00 0.0% 16.7% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 83.3 3.9%
2018 0 7.31 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 78.0 0.0%
L14 0 2.58 0.00 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 89.2 23.1%

Jimmy Yacabonis has a 20.4% strikeout rate along with a SIERA of 4.94 through 4 games, including 2 starts. He topped out at 71 pitches through 5 innings in his last start, so he may not be fully stretched out. Yacabonis is a right-hander with a 13% walk rate so far this season allowing a hard-hit rate of about 36%. While he’s cheap, he likely won’t go deep enough in this game to warrant serious DFS consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Yacabonis in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Jimmy Yacabonis major league sample size is quite small, but so far he has looked like a low-strikeout, high-walks right-hander. The Rangers were a huge letdown last night, but we can’t let one game sway us that much. Yacabonis looks plenty hittable, and Texas does have some formidable bats. I’ll once again be looking at the lefties with the platoon edge like Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo and Rougned Odor. All 4 homers Yacabonis has allowed in his brief career have come to righties, so Elvis Andrus and Robinson Chirinos look like decent options, as well. Yet again, this is an excellent spot for the Rangers’ offense. Here’s hoping they can actually deliver this time.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.428 90.9 0.256 49.7% 15.1% 20.8% 48.6% OF $3,300 OF $5,100 RF $9,900
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.313 87.2 0.129 30.9% 7.7% 12.5% 50.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,400
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.372 90.9 0.173 39.4% 9.7% 19.0% 53.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,500
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.339 88.9 0.130 43.6% 8.6% 19.4% 41.9% 3B $2,600 3B $3,300 3B $6,300
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.327 87.5 0.158 40.6% 9.1% 25.5% 36.7% 2B $3,000 2B $4,200 2B $8,500
6 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.292 86.2 0.163 29.6% 9.9% 29.1% 39.8% 1B $2,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
7 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.289 88.5 0.206 49.4% 7.9% 40.0% 31.8% C $2,500 C $3,700 C $7,700
8 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.387 94.5 0.245 48.8% 14.1% 34.3% 31.2% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,600 1B $9,100
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.245 79.6 0.057 25.8% 10.6% 24.6% 47.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
Team Averages 0.332 88.2 0.169 39.8% 10.3% 25.0% 42.5%

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo

Secondary Plays – Robinson Chirinos, Adrian Beltre

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Minor has allowed a fly ball rate of nearly 47% along with 42.4% hard hits against righties on the year. As a result, Orioles power righties profile well against him. Manny Machado is the top dog, followed by Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo and Jonathan Schoop. Trey Mancini and Danny Valencia are secondary options to consider, too. I’d stack a few Orioles in tournaments while leaving them as one-offs in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.334 87.4 0.179 42.1% 12.5% 28.1% 33.3% 3B $2,500 3B $3,200 SS $6,400
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.297 86.1 0.079 24.6% 8.3% 13.1% 45.3% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 2B $7,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 91.7 0.220 34.9% 7.9% 6.9% 37.2% SS $4,200 SS $4,600 3B $9,400
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.320 88.9 0.062 28.4% 2.0% 10.0% 38.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.336 93.9 0.140 39.0% 7.9% 25.4% 46.3% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,600 DH $7,400
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.413 90.4 0.221 31.1% 11.1% 14.1% 41.9% OF $2,600 3B/OF $3,400 3B $6,800
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.284 90.9 0.188 34.2% 8.9% 38.0% 39.0% 1B $2,100 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
8 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.293 88.7 0.129 27.4% 7.3% 25.5% 68.5% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.289 85.7 0.063 18.4% 2.0% 20.0% 39.5% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.328 89.3 0.142 31.1% 7.5% 20.1% 43.3%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Danny Valencia

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto Boston
Article Image Marcus Stroman Article Image Brian Johnson
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-152 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.397 43.1% 92.3 15.3% 60.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.265 27.5% 84.3 19.6% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.325 43.2% 89.7 21.0% 63.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.349 29.5% 88.6 18.7% 38.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 12 of 21 Salary Rank: 19 of 21 Salary Rank: 14 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4% 93.3 10.0%
2018 10 4.16 6.50 17.8% 9.5% 62.1% 43.2% 16.5% 92.3 9.5%
L14 2 4.62 5.40 13.3% 8.9% 60.0% 34.3% 11.4% 92.6 10.9%

Marcus Stroman was a disaster early in the season, but he’s looked more like himself since coming off the DL. On the year, the right-hander has a 4.05 SIERA along with a strikeout rate nearing 18%. In 4 starts since his return, the right-hander has a 3.56 SIERA and a ground ball rate over 68%. Those numbers are more Stromanesque. While his bounce-back has been encouraging, Stroman is still going into Fenway to take on the Red Sox today. More often than not, that’s a non-starter when it comes to DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman has looked better of late, but this isn’t the spot to be playing him.

Brian Johnson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 17 of 21 Salary Rank: 18 of 21 Salary Rank: 15 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 5 4.89 4.33 17.4% 6.6% 35.9% 35.9% 26.1% 87.3 7.8%
2018 3 4.11 4.23 19.0% 6.7% 40.6% 29.0% 22.8% 88.5 7.5%
L14 2 5.69 3.12 10.3% 7.7% 38.7% 37.5% 12.5% 88.6 4.4%

Brian Johnson has pitched in 24 games this season, including 3 starts. He doesn’t seem fully stretched out yet, as the 77 pitches he threw in his last start were a season-high. The lefty doesn’t have much K potential (19% strikeout rate) and he’s a fly ball pitcher pitching in a homer-friendly ballpark. Johnson likely won’t pitch deep into this one, and the strikeout upside is minimal.

Quick Breakdown: No need to roster Brian Johnson today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Jays will take their hacks against Brian Johnson, a hittable lefty that allows plenty of fly balls. While he’s been effective in terms of stifling lefties in his career, he has allowed a .358 career wOBA to RHBs. Toronto isn’t an amazing offense, but they do have some decent right-handed bats worth targeting. Lourdes Gurriel has been hitting high in the lineup, so he’s a solid option at second base. Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales are viable as individuals or as a part of a Jays stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.304 91.3 0.158 26.2% 4.8% 25.8% 40.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,500
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.312 89.2 0.000 28.6% 3.6% 21.4% 61.9% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.323 87.7 0.153 27.0% 10.6% 22.1% 47.3% 1B $3,700 1B $5,100 1B $9,700
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.364 91.6 0.278 31.8% 7.2% 27.8% 41.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,500 LF $9,300
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.351 93.9 0.111 42.9% 9.6% 22.9% 48.2% 1B $2,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.362 92.1 0.023 33.3% 20.0% 23.6% 56.7% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.276 84.2 0.167 33.7% 3.9% 14.6% 36.6% OF $2,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.353 86.6 0.234 26.2% 2.1% 10.4% 50.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.291 87.5 0.074 31.8% 6.8% 16.9% 38.6% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,300
Team Averages 0.326 89.3 0.133 31.3% 7.6% 20.6% 46.8%

Elite Plays – Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk, Justin Smoak, Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Marcus Stroman and his ground ball ways can make him tough to stack against, but the Red Sox are still the Red Sox. Stroman also has reverse splits, which plays right into the hands of several of Boston’s most quality hitters. I won’t be prioritizing them in this matchup like I normally would in a different one, but Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are all viable if you can squeeze them in. Eduardo Nunez or Blake Swihart are decent cheapies if you need to save some salary, too. This is always a stack worth looking at in GPPs, especially when they won’t be the obvious chalk.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.475 92.8 0.313 46.1% 12.3% 12.7% 30.3% OF $5,000 OF $6,100 RF $10,800
2 Brock Holt LEFT 0.334 87.2 0.109 29.3% 9.0% 14.7% 55.2% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,600
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.474 94.1 0.344 49.5% 10.2% 20.8% 45.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,700 RF $10,100
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.444 93.2 0.249 38.6% 11.4% 18.9% 39.3% 1B $3,200 1B $4,400 1B $8,200
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.400 91.9 0.266 42.1% 7.0% 15.6% 47.3% SS $4,100 SS $5,100 SS $9,800
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.271 87.4 0.126 27.3% 2.3% 16.7% 50.0% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,700
7 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.295 90.6 0.020 40.0% 7.3% 29.1% 42.9% C $2,100 C/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,500
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.299 86.1 0.147 35.8% 3.0% 27.7% 43.1% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $5,500
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.350 92.3 0.143 40.4% 10.5% 23.2% 40.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
Team Averages 0.371 90.6 0.191 38.8% 8.1% 19.9% 43.7%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Cleveland
Article Image Masahiro Tanaka Article Image Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-129 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.331 28.9% 86.8 21.2% 49.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.251 0.259 33.6% 84.9 33.0% 46.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.332 39.1% 87.6 27.3% 41.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.283 36.7% 88.7 29.9% 44.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 3 of 21 Salary Rank: 9 of 21 Salary Rank: 5 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5% 92.2 15.1%
2018 13 3.63 4.58 24.8% 6.5% 44.8% 34.9% 18.7% 91.7 14.0%

Masahiro Tanaka saw mediocre results in his first start off the DL, as he allowed 3 runs on 6 hits in 4.1 innings of work in Baltimore. He threw 80 pitches to get those 10 outs, and it sounds as though the Yanks are going to be cautious with bringing him along slowly. Tanaka has allowed 17 homers already this season, and targeting the Indians at Progressive Field is a nightmare waiting to happen.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is an easy fade.

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,200 Salary: $12,000 Salary: $23,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 21 Salary Rank: 3 of 21 Salary Rank: 2 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0% 94.0 9.2%
2018 18 3.05 2.45 31.3% 7.4% 44.9% 35.4% 16.2% 94.6 13.1%
L14 2 2.89 2.51 28.1% 3.5% 42.1% 26.3% 26.3% 94.5 11.6%

Trevor Bauer has upped his game this year in a big way. The UCLA product has a stellar 31.8% strikeout rate on the year along with a tidy 3.05 SIERA. Bauer already has 8 double-digit strikeout games on the season. The 34.4% hard-hit rate is a tad high, but he’s only conceded 5 homers on the year. The Yankees have tons of power, but they’ve also whiffed at a 23.3% clip against righties as a team this season. Bauer also has one of the longest leashes in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is a strong option today despite the tough matchup.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

I respect what Trevor Bauer has been able to accomplish this season, but it’s hard not to be at least a bit tempted by the notion of getting some of the Yankee power bats at a fraction of their usual ownership. Bauer has slight reverse splits, so hunting for a homer with an Aaron Judge or a Giancarlo Stanton here makes some sense. Otherwise, though, I’m not all that interested in stacking the Yankees here, especially in cash games. Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and Greg Bird look like decent low-owned GPP darts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.308 87.1 0.152 29.9% 12.4% 15.3% 50.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,100
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.401 96.5 0.300 49.0% 14.1% 30.9% 46.3% OF $4,300 OF $4,500 RF $9,200
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.361 88.9 0.217 38.4% 14.1% 18.6% 43.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 CF $8,400
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.300 91.3 0.183 33.8% 8.3% 33.9% 53.9% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 RF $7,400
5 Greg Bird LEFT 0.318 88.8 0.227 37.1% 9.1% 26.3% 38.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,400
6 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.352 90.2 0.202 36.6% 2.8% 17.2% 49.4% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,400
7 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.337 88.3 0.080 35.9% 10.3% 21.2% 41.9% 2B $2,100 1B/2B $3,000 2B $5,900
8 Kyle Higashioka RIGHT 0.291 84.6 0.200 36.4% 11.8% 23.5% 18.2% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,300
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.222 85.1 0.067 9.5% 9.1% 27.3% 60.0% 2B $2,100 2B $3,400 2B $6,300
Team Averages 0.321 89.0 0.181 34.1% 10.2% 23.8% 44.7%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Masahiro Tanaka is a talented arm, but he’s also a reverse splits righty going into Cleveland to take on the high-powered Indians. Despite the splits, I would still feel comfortable playing lefties like Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley and Francisco Lindor in this spot. Edwin Encarnacion is the top target from the right side of the plate here. Of the two offenses in this game, I’d prefer to stack up the Tribe.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.411 89.4 0.290 41.1% 9.9% 19.5% 35.7% SS $4,400 SS $5,600 SS $10,500
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.412 91.2 0.207 43.1% 6.8% 8.8% 42.1% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 LF $8,700
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.424 89.5 0.342 39.1% 16.8% 11.5% 31.2% 3B $4,700 3B $5,800 IF/OF $10,300
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.392 90.5 0.269 42.9% 8.3% 23.4% 38.1% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.382 90.5 0.180 40.9% 9.7% 20.7% 38.0% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,400
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.353 87.2 0.127 37.6% 9.7% 19.0% 36.5% 2B $3,100 2B $3,900 2B $7,200
7 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.320 90.1 0.086 40.0% 4.0% 25.8% 52.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,300
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.278 88.0 0.160 40.2% 4.6% 32.2% 37.4% C $2,300 C $3,600 C $7,500
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.266 86.0 0.116 38.0% 5.8% 24.3% 42.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.360 89.2 0.197 40.3% 8.4% 20.6% 39.4%

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Michael Brantley

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
Article Image Enyel De Los Santos Article Image Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-118 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.363 44.0% 89.2 16.7% 51.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.279 39.7% 87.0 23.4% 55.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Enyel De Los Santos
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 17 of 21 Salary Rank: 27 of 21 Salary Rank: 21 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%

This was originally going to be Zach Eflin, but Enyel de los Santos will get the call instead. The rookie made his debut last week against the Mets, and he wound up allowing 3 runs while punching out 6 in 6.1 innings of work. De los Santos whiffed 22.7% of hitters at the Triple-A level this season while allowing 10 home runs across 16 outings. Given his incredibly cheap price tag and his matchup with the Marlins at Marlins Park today, it’s safe to say de los Santos is going to be your chalky low-dollar SP today. Considering he’s min-price on DraftKings and not all that much more expensive on FanDuel, that’s probably chalk I’m going to eat. He has shown solid K potential at the lower levels and he’s one of the top prospects in a solid Philly organization.

Quick Breakdown: De los Santos is a strong SP2 option today in Miami.

Jose Urena
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 9 of 21 Salary Rank: 17 of 21 Salary Rank: 10 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 5.19 3.82 15.6% 8.8% 43.1% 31.8% 18.4% 95.5 8.2%
2018 17 3.83 4.18 20.0% 5.7% 52.9% 42.0% 15.4% 95.7 9.0%
L14 1 3.26 0.00 33.3% 11.1% 50.0% 40.0% 10.0% 95.9 7.7%

Jose Urena isn’t a gas can, but his numbers don’t exactly jump off the page either. His 19.9% K-rate is unremarkable, though the 3.84 SIERA is solid. Urena has allowed 42.1% hard hits this season, though, which helps explain the high .302 BABIP against him. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a clip nearing 53%, and he draws a Philly team with the highest strikeout percentage in the league against right-handed pitching this season. He’s a guy that doesn’t have a ton of upside, but at his super cheap price point I think he’s a viable option in all formats. Pairing him with a high-priced ace still leaves you with enough salary space for some quality bats.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is another viable punt SP2 play.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

While I have at least some interest in Urena, he’s still no ace. He has shown a particular vulnerability against lefties, so the Philly LHBs make some sense here. Marlins Park is suboptimal for hitting, but Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez and Nick Williams could give Urena some problems. There’s always Rhys Hoskins and his power potential from the other side if you want to run it back with a righty. Overall, though, this isn’t one of the better hitting spots on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 83.5 0.138 25.8% 14.2% 22.0% 43.5% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.384 89.4 0.251 34.6% 12.1% 26.6% 24.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.316 87.3 0.193 27.0% 7.5% 21.0% 43.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,500
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.390 89.0 0.207 36.7% 20.7% 13.7% 34.7% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.382 89.3 0.247 33.9% 9.8% 25.7% 46.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,500
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.311 86.4 0.115 26.7% 5.3% 22.2% 39.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,600
7 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.315 89.1 0.161 24.5% 5.2% 15.7% 56.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,700
8 Enyel De Los Santos RIGHT P $5,700 P $4,000 P $8,000
9 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.319 89.0 0.177 39.0% 9.3% 35.5% 35.6% C $2,300 C $3,600 C $7,300
Team Averages 0.343 87.9 0.186 31.0% 10.5% 22.8% 40.4%

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins come with their usual low implied team total and they’ll be taking their hacks against a decent prospect in Enyel de los Santos. Justin Bour typically grades out as a decent low-dollar option at first base, but it’s hard to click his name with so many other quality hitters at the position. Otherwise, my interest in Miami is minimal, once again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.350 88.2 0.160 36.0% 6.3% 21.0% 41.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,400
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.356 89.9 0.112 37.9% 7.8% 18.9% 51.5% OF $3,200 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.399 91.3 0.268 42.7% 5.9% 16.0% 43.3% C $3,300 C $4,400 C $8,000
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.385 90.5 0.239 42.6% 16.9% 25.1% 39.3% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,300
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.315 87.7 0.127 36.4% 5.9% 19.0% 48.8% 2B $3,400 2B $3,600 2B $7,700
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.287 89.1 0.082 25.0% 4.5% 19.1% 44.1% 3B $2,500 3B $2,800 3B $5,600
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.323 88.0 0.212 35.4% 4.5% 21.6% 42.5% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,500
8 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.298 88.5 0.076 38.4% 10.4% 24.6% 49.4% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.048 79.9 0.083 33.3% 0.0% 75.0% 66.7% P $7,000 P $6,300 P $13,100
Team Averages 0.307 88.1 0.151 36.4% 6.9% 26.7% 47.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour

Stackability – RED

Washington at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
Article Image Jeremy Hellickson Article Image Corey Oswalt
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-128 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.356 29.2% 88.3 19.7% 44.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.446 0.395 30.8% 89.5 11.8% 23.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.323 30.0% 87.1 18.0% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.343 0.420 48.2% 90.6 14.7% 51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 21 Salary Rank: 14 of 21 Salary Rank: 13 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9% 90.2 8.3%
2018 11 3.93 3.81 19.0% 4.3% 45.2% 29.6% 19.5% 89.4 8.8%
L14 2 5.12 11.42 12.8% 6.4% 36.1% 27.0% 18.9% 89.8 6.4%

The Nationals have been cautious about allowing Jeremy Hellickson to face opposing lineups a third time through, which probably helps explain his decent numbers this season. The 18.8% strikeout rate is forgettable, but the 3.95 SIERA is a big improvement on his 5.37 mark from 2017. He’s throwing his fastball less this season, and his ground ball rate has come up considerably. The Mets lineup opposing him today is a bad one, but Hellboy’s minimal strikeout upside combined with his short leash makes him a tough pitcher to fully trust here.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Hellickson in all formats.

Corey Oswalt
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 21 Salary Rank: 21 of 21 Salary Rank: 17 of 21
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 2 4.67 7.94 13.7% 5.9% 42.5% 42.5% 17.5% 89.7 4.8%
L14 2 5.88 10.80 9.1% 9.1% 40.7% 44.4% 18.5% 89.9 4.0%

Corey Oswalt has pitched in 4 games, 3 of them starts. He has shown a mediocre strikeout rate around 19% while allowing 36.5% hard hits. Citi Field is a fine place to pitch, but Oswalt will have to do battle with a tough Nationals lineup featuring several excellent lefty sticks. Oswalt has allowed a .318 wOBA to lefties early on this year, and his K-rate dips about 6% against LHBs. Oswalt is cheap, but there’s a reason for that.

Quick Breakdown: Oswalt is an easy fade against Washington.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

As was the case yesterday with Zack Wheeler, the way to target Oswalt with Nats bats is with the lefties. Anthony Rendon is good enough to play in any matchup from the right side, but the lion’s share of my WAS interest lies with the lefties. That means Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Juan Soto and Adam Eaton, most importantly. Daniel Murphy is a guy I’ll be fading until he shows signs of life, especially since he is still somewhat pricey. The Nationals are a strong stacking option on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.380 87.2 0.115 42.3% 8.2% 16.3% 47.1% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
2 Juan Soto LEFT 0.399 90.0 0.202 38.3% 18.1% 18.1% 45.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.398 91.4 0.228 36.7% 9.9% 14.6% 34.4% 3B $4,100 3B $4,100 3B $8,500
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.403 91.0 0.286 42.9% 19.4% 23.3% 36.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 RF $9,200
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.394 89.3 0.304 41.5% 10.3% 20.6% 34.0% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.335 89.2 0.148 33.2% 9.2% 21.1% 54.0% SS $3,600 SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,500
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.346 88.0 0.073 15.7% 6.7% 8.3% 31.4% 1B $2,900 1B/2B $4,000 2B $7,400
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.333 85.7 0.143 20.9% 10.7% 10.7% 37.2% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $5,700
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.030 69.1 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 55.6% 100.0% P $6,100 P $6,700 P $12,700
Team Averages 0.335 86.8 0.167 30.2% 10.3% 21.0% 46.7%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Anthony Rendon, Adam Eaton, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets

The Mets draw Jeremy Hellickson, who has been more vulnerable against left-handed hitters over the course of his career. This season, Hellickson has conceded a .323 wOBA with 5 homers to lefties compared to a .269 mark with 2 homers to right-handers. Most of the Mets’ better hitters happen to be lefties, so they stack up pretty well in this matchup. The Nationals do have a solid bullpen to back Hellickson up, but New York should be able to put a few runs on the board here. The Washington offense is certainly the preferred target here, but I don’t hate playing a few Mets on the other side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.386 90.5 0.285 38.4% 13.5% 24.0% 34.2% OF $3,000 OF $4,900 LF $8,800
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.377 90.4 0.227 45.1% 7.0% 20.6% 39.1% 2B $3,200 2B $4,300 SS $8,600
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.368 92.0 0.213 50.0% 16.5% 27.8% 33.3% OF $2,700 3B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.349 87.9 0.141 33.1% 17.0% 22.0% 37.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.330 87.3 0.234 38.0% 8.0% 11.2% 38.0% 1B $2,700 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,400
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.344 87.3 0.222 33.7% 6.3% 19.7% 32.6% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,500
7 Matt den Dekker LEFT OF $2,000 OF $3,100 RF $5,500
8 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.276 87.0 0.102 27.7% 5.9% 20.6% 50.3% SS $2,400 SS $3,300 SS $6,700
9 Corey Oswalt RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $5,500 P $11,300
Team Averages 0.304 88.9 0.178 33.3% 9.3% 30.7% 33.2%

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Devin Mesoraco, Jose Bautista

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles