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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 29th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-29 15:01:26

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Kansas City NY Yankees
kansascitymlb Burch Smith nyyankeesmlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-360 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.356 0.327 40.0% 6.4% 19.2% 44.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.231 0.274 27.9% 6.5% 28.0% 59.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.364 47.8% 14.8% 27.1% 38.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.311 31.2% 7.6% 27.2% 41.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Burch Smith
burch-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 3 4.14 5.58 23.6% 11.1% 41.2% 43.9% 14.4% 93.4 10.7%
L14 2 3.44 4.32 25.8% 6.5% 52.4% 19.1% 28.6% 93.0 16.7%

Burch Smith threw 96 pitches in his last start after tossing no more than 71 in any previous outing. 24 of his 27 outings this season have come in relief, though he certainly seems to be stretched out at this point. The right-hander has a solid 23.6% K-rate this season with a high walk rate over 11%. He has also allowed 43.9% hard hits on the year. Considering he’s going into Yankee Stadium this afternoon, it’s safe to assume Smith won’t have as easy a time today as he did last time out against Detroit. He’s an easy fade. 

Quick Breakdown: You probably don’t want to play Burch Smith today.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3% 91.8 9.5%
2018 20 3.52 4.18 27.4% 7.4% 44.6% 30.5% 20.7% 91.9 10.5%
L14 1 1.07 1.80 47.4% 0.0% 50.0% 40.0% 20.0% 92.5 17.7%

J.A. Happ pitched well for the Blue Jays this season, and now he’ll be taking his talents to the Bronx. The southpaw boasts a strong strikeout rate of 27.4% along with a manageable hard contact rate just over 30%. His 3.52 SIERA is a bit better than his 4.18 ERA. While pitching his home games at Yankee Stadium will be tough, today he gets a pretty favorable matchup against a Royals team that just traded Mike Moustakas. KC being able to stack the lineup with righties isn’t ideal for Happ, but most of said righties are mediocre hitters. Happ is an elite play at a fair price today.

Quick Breakdown: All things considered, Happ looks like one of the best options on the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

J.A. Happ is a pretty good lefty, though he does have a wide split and he will give up the occasional home run. The Royals don’t have many intimidating righties to throw his way, but guys like Salvador Perez or Whit Merrifield grade out as solid plays at their respective positions. Other than that, there isn’t much to like here. Rosell Herrera is potentially a decent punt play, but that about does it for my interest in the Royals side of things.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.399 0.202 41.4% 7.0% 15.6% 30.6% 2B $3,800 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $9,000
2 Rosell Herrera SWITCH 0.321 0.059 50.0% 2.7% 13.5% 51.7% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 2B $5,700
3 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.320 0.177 41.4% 4.7% 26.7% 37.9% C $3,100 C $3,800 C $7,700
4 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.273 0.150 26.7% 13.0% 21.7% 46.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.282 0.091 26.2% 1.4% 34.2% 33.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,300
6 Hunter Dozier RIGHT 0.298 0.057 29.4% 14.5% 30.6% 38.2% 1B $2,300 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,900
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.277 0.024 33.3% 8.7% 25.0% 63.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 LF $5,800
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.298 0.133 30.6% 6.0% 19.0% 45.7% SS $2,100 SS $2,800 SS $5,900
9 Adalberto Mondesi RIGHT 0.229 0.190 42.9% 4.5% 31.8% 35.7% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,800 2B $7,400
Team Averages 0.300 0.120 35.8% 6.9% 24.2% 42.6%

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Rosell Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw Burch Smith today, a right-hander with a fly ball lean allowing a ton of hard contact this season. Smith hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters of either handedness so far this season, so once again this looks like a strong spot for Yankee bats. Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird and Gleyber Torres are your top options. Brett Gardner is also fine, but it’s hard to stomach paying a hefty price for a guy like him at a loaded outfield position. Ditto for Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar. Stacking up the Yankees looks like a fine strategy on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.302 0.157 28.6% 11.7% 14.7% 51.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.307 0.180 34.6% 7.8% 32.8% 51.3% OF $4,200 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.348 0.255 38.9% 8.3% 13.0% 34.3% SS $3,800 SS $5,300 SS $9,700
4 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.352 0.182 38.5% 14.0% 19.3% 44.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 CF $8,600
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.380 0.231 38.3% 6.3% 26.7% 30.7% 2B $3,600 2B $4,400 2B $8,600
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.325 0.250 42.4% 8.3% 26.4% 36.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,300
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.347 0.177 37.6% 3.8% 17.2% 50.2% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,500
8 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.344 0.099 36.2% 10.8% 22.1% 39.1% 2B $2,600 1B/2B $3,900 2B $7,400
9 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.343 0.223 35.1% 10.2% 21.3% 42.5% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,700
Team Averages 0.339 0.195 36.7% 9.0% 21.5% 42.3%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Gleyber Torres, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Minnesota Boston
minnesotamlb Jose Berrios bostonmlb Nathan Eovaldi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-138 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.308 36.4% 6.8% 25.5% 37.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.355 38.4% 5.8% 23.1% 48.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.293 31.8% 4.3% 25.3% 44.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.281 30.3% 1.7% 24.2% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
jose-berrios-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,700 Salary: $10,800 Salary: $21,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.29 3.89 22.6% 7.8% 39.0% 27.9% 20.4% 93.5 9.4%
2018 21 3.55 3.48 25.4% 5.6% 40.9% 34.2% 20.6% 93.1 11.4%
L14 2 3.59 4.15 26.9% 7.7% 45.5% 33.3% 21.2% 93.0 10.2%

Jose Berrios has been solid this season, as evidenced by his 25.4% strikeout rate and SIERA of 3.55. The problem here obviously is that he’s a fly ball pitcher going into Fenway to face the Red Sox. Boston has tons of power – Berrios has already allowed 17 homers on the year – and they don’t strike out much. He’s talented enough to pitch well despite those factors, but he’s also not coming at any sort of discount. I don’t have much interest.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is too priced up for a matchup with the Sox at Fenway.

Nathan Eovaldi
nathan-eovaldi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 10 3.47 4.26 23.7% 3.6% 46.6% 34.0% 21.6% 97.0 11.0%
L14 2 3.98 9.35 20.9% 4.7% 37.5% 43.8% 15.6% 97.1 13.6%

Eovaldi will be making his first start as a Red Sox (Red Sock?) today. The right-hander pitched quite well this season for Tampa with a 23.7% K-rate along with a tiny walk rate. He allows a decent amount of hard contact, but that tends to be the case with high-velocity guys like him. The price tag is also nice, but the ballpark stinks and the Twins are a pretty decent offense. Eovaldi isn’t the worst try on the board but I’d wait for a better spot. He’s priced a bit awkwardly given the other options on this slate. You can play him in tournaments as a potentially contrarian option.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is fine, but there are other pitchers worth prioritizing today.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Eovaldi has shown a pretty standard split in his career, which means he’s more vulnerable to lefties than righties. Minnesota does have a few decent lefties to throw his way, with Eddie Rosario checking in as the top option. Eovaldi has allowed 7 homers to RHBs, too, which puts Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano on my radar, especially considering Fenway is great for righty power. Jorge Polanco, Logan Morrison and Max Kepler are fringe options from the left side. 

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.408 0.103 42.1% 12.1% 11.6% 49.4% 1B $2,700 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.353 0.241 38.7% 7.2% 16.5% 31.2% OF $3,700 OF $5,400 LF $10,400
3 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.303 0.203 37.9% 9.0% 21.0% 37.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,200
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.301 0.234 45.2% 7.5% 40.8% 41.9% 3B $3,000 1B/3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,600
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.375 0.195 40.9% 11.0% 19.9% 28.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.332 0.133 28.1% 16.7% 24.1% 38.7% SS $2,800 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.330 0.174 39.4% 12.0% 13.8% 39.4% OF $2,500 OF $4,200 RF $8,200
8 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.341 0.183 41.5% 9.2% 23.2% 40.9% C $2,500 C $3,700 C $7,200
9 Jake Cave LEFT 0.378 0.225 40.4% 5.3% 25.3% 48.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.347 0.188 39.4% 10.0% 21.8% 39.5%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler, Logan Morrison, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Boston

Despite facing a tough pitcher in Jose Berrios today, the Red Sox still grade out as one of the best offenses on the board. J.D. Martinez is hilariously underpriced given his talent level on DraftKings, which puts him very much into consideration in all formats despite the matchup with Berrios. Mookie Betts didn’t get a discount, but I still think you’d want to pay for him if you’re stacking Boston here. You can get the rest of the Red Sox with cheaper tags than we’re used to seeing, so it’s a potentially unique opportunity to load up on them in tournaments. I’d be more picky in cash games, however. It’s still an elite ballpark for hitting, and the lefties like Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Moreland look decent with the platoon edge on Berrios.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.468 0.279 46.7% 11.5% 13.3% 32.9% OF $4,800 OF $5,900 RF $11,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.417 0.221 31.2% 13.6% 14.5% 35.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 LF $8,700
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.463 0.356 47.7% 10.0% 21.6% 45.4% OF $4,700 OF $4,600 RF $8,900
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.431 0.239 37.3% 11.6% 18.2% 40.5% 1B $3,400 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.385 0.273 39.0% 6.0% 17.5% 47.2% SS $3,700 SS $4,100 SS $8,400
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.328 0.193 36.8% 7.8% 24.0% 44.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,700
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.259 0.111 25.8% 2.1% 15.6% 50.5% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,400
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.284 0.130 33.3% 4.0% 28.2% 43.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.372 0.159 40.1% 10.0% 22.2% 40.4% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
Team Averages 0.379 0.218 37.5% 8.5% 19.5% 42.3%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Baltimore
tampabaymlb Yonny Chirinos baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.362 37.0% 9.2% 19.7% 37.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.374 0.402 36.4% 8.5% 20.3% 31.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.310 51.2% 4.6% 22.7% 48.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.295 33.1% 6.6% 30.1% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yonny Chirinos
yonny-chirinos-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 6 4.07 3.78 21.1% 7.0% 42.7% 43.3% 12.4% 93.2 11.7%
L14 1 3.38 4.05 22.2% 3.7% 47.4% 47.4% 15.8% 93.2 18.4%

Yonny Chirinos has pitched in 7 games for Tampa this season, including 6 starts. He has shown about average strikeout stuff in the minors, and that has translated to the bigs thus far as evidenced by his 21.1% K-rate. Walks haven’t been a real problem for him, but he has yielded a hard-hit rate north of 43%, albeit in a limited sample. His 4.07 SIERA says that he hasn’t been bad by any means, and today the right-hander will be in Baltimore to face a high-strikeout Orioles lineup. I think Chirinos is cheap enough to where you can roster him in all formats as a full-on punt, but guys like Dylan Bundy and Luis Castillo really aren’t all that much more expensive. As a result, I’d prefer to just find the extra money to roster one of them instead. This is a decent spot for Chirinos, but the O’s do still have a good bit of power.

Quick Breakdown: Chirinos is fine as a punt, but I’d rather roster a slightly more expensive SP2.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 28 4.45 4.24 21.8% 7.3% 32.8% 36.5% 17.6% 92.2 11.4%
2018 19 3.90 4.57 25.1% 7.6% 34.0% 34.9% 15.0% 91.6 13.1%
L14 1 5.63 9.00 13.6% 4.6% 23.5% 52.9% 5.9% 90.7 10.1%

Dylan Bundy is a fly ball pitcher giving up plenty of hard contact. Those tendencies can lead to him getting blown up, which has happened pretty frequently of late. That said, Bundy also has solid strikeout stuff (25.1% this season) and the Rays do have some Ks in the lineup. Tampa also doesn’t have a ton of power these days, so there’s some upside here. His boom-or-bust nature makes him risky, but that riskiness is baked into his super cheap price tag. I don’t think he’s absolutely necessary on a single-pitcher site, but he is very much in play as an SP2 in multi-pitcher formats.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is a strong SP2 option today.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Dylan Bundy has allowed 14 home runs to right-handed hitters this season while also holding them to a wOBA south of .300. That’s pretty impressive. Lefties, on the other hand, have a .374 wOBA with 9 dongs against him. There isn’t a lot to like in this lineup, but you can pick your spots with a few guys. C.J. Cron is a good home run candidate from the right side, while guys like Jake Bauers, Joey Wendle and Kevin Kiermaier are viable from the left side. You can stack Rays in GPPs given Bundy’s blow-up tendencies but I like TB bats as one-offs for cash, especially if you’re not rostering Bundy on the other side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.257 0.104 35.4% 7.8% 28.9% 53.2% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.318 0.094 30.1% 5.7% 14.8% 52.9% 3B $2,600 3B $4,000 3B $7,200
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.363 0.248 43.7% 13.5% 24.1% 40.2% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,500 1B $9,000
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.353 0.227 36.7% 5.9% 24.7% 42.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 1B $9,000
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.324 0.232 41.2% 6.7% 36.7% 38.2% 1B $2,500 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,500
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.311 0.120 36.0% 5.3% 20.8% 47.3% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $4,200 2B $8,400
7 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.300 0.091 36.2% 4.2% 17.5% 39.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Michael Perez LEFT 0.700 0.500 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,500
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.289 0.127 29.8% 8.9% 19.3% 44.5% OF $2,800 OF $4,500 CF $9,400
Team Averages 0.357 0.194 37.7% 6.4% 20.8% 39.8%

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Joey Wendle

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Baltimore

Yonny Chirinos has given the Rays some decent innings this season. His ground ball rate is far higher against righties than lefties, and we know Baltimore has a righty-heavy lineup. This actually does grade out as a decent spot for someone like (gulp) Chris Davis, who is essentially the only threatening left-handed bat in the O’s lineup. I still think you can try some of the better Orioles hitters in tournaments, which puts Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and Mark Trumbo into play. I’m fairly lukewarm on Baltimore overall here, and Davis is the only guy really on my radar at all for cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.272 0.077 26.5% 4.6% 27.5% 46.5% SS $2,800 3B $3,500 SS $6,600
2 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.260 0.218 27.0% 2.0% 22.6% 45.7% 2B $3,600 2B $4,600 2B $9,100
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.326 0.172 32.0% 3.3% 18.4% 40.6% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,300
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.358 0.197 41.0% 7.1% 24.7% 38.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 DH $7,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.296 0.118 33.8% 7.6% 35.6% 41.6% 1B $2,400 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.334 0.115 31.6% 6.4% 24.1% 43.9% OF $2,600 3B/OF $3,500 3B $6,600
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.364 0.155 33.5% 9.0% 24.3% 51.7% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,500
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.310 0.157 31.4% 12.1% 25.5% 47.6% OF $2,100 3B/OF $4,000 2B $7,200
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.276 0.172 24.2% 3.1% 28.6% 40.0% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.311 0.153 31.2% 6.1% 25.7% 44.0%

Elite Plays – Chris Davis (value)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Corey Kluber detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-230 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.265 0.281 35.3% 4.0% 27.1% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.297 34.7% 6.4% 24.1% 35.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.272 0.314 38.0% 2.8% 23.3% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.325 34.0% 2.1% 22.1% 30.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $12,000 Salary: $22,900
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4% 92.6 15.6%
2018 21 3.29 2.88 25.1% 3.4% 44.3% 36.8% 16.0% 92.1 11.0%
L14 1 5.81 6.75 9.1% 4.6% 31.6% 31.6% 15.8% 91.4 12.5%

Corey Kluber is the most expensive option on the board by a good margin today. The right-hander has been in wobbly form of late, and on the year he has a 25.1% strikeout rate and a SIERA of 3.29. Both numbers have gotten drastically worse this season than we saw last year, but they’re still solid by usual standards. The hard contact against Kluber is also up near 37%, but he still isn’t walking anybody. The former Cy Young winner draws a favorable matchup today against a Tigers lineup that comes with a decent number of strikeouts. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kluber wound up being the highest-scoring pitcher on the day, but I’m not really interested in paying a premium for him on this slate. I wouldn’t talk anyone out of playing Kluber, but there are better values in my eyes today.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play if you can stomach the hefty price tag.

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 5.22 6.08 14.5% 6.2% 33.2% 39.5% 13.4% 92.2 8.1%
2018 13 3.79 3.97 23.1% 4.3% 33.2% 34.3% 21.1% 91.3 10.2%
L14 1 3.73 7.20 17.4% 4.4% 50.0% 66.7% 22.2% 91.3 9.5%

Jordan Zimmermann has been weirdly good this season after being a disaster over the last couple of years. His strikeout rate has risen to a respectable 23.1% and his 3.79 SIERA shows his 3.97 ERA is fairly legit. That said, he’s not all that cheap anymore and he draws a brutal matchup against the Indians today. There aren’t many instances in which I’d actually recommend rostering a pitcher against the Tribe, and this isn’t one of them, either.

Quick Breakdown: Despite his solid numbers, I have no interest in Zimmermann against Cleveland.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

I’m wary of fully buying into Jordan Zimmermann and his resurgence, but he hasn’t been as fruitful to stack against this season. That said, he has still conceded 10 home runs in his 13 starts along with 34.3% hard hits. He is also still a reverse splits righty generating tons of fly balls, so there’s a decent chance he’ll allow some dongs today. This looks like a strong spot for Edwin Encarnacion, while the usual suspects like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are in play despite Zimmermann’s reverse splits. You can say the same for Michael Brantley, while Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis are low-priority GPP plays. I wouldn’t make it a point to roster Indians ahead of Rockies, Red Sox or Yankees in cash games, but they do make for a very appealing tourney stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.411 0.282 43.0% 9.7% 17.3% 35.3% SS $4,600 SS $5,500 SS $10,100
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.411 0.199 44.4% 7.1% 8.2% 43.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 LF $8,900
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.425 0.362 40.3% 17.1% 11.6% 31.2% 3B $5,000 3B $5,700 IF/OF $10,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.392 0.280 42.7% 8.7% 22.9% 37.0% 1B $4,100 1B $4,400 1B $8,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.386 0.192 39.1% 10.1% 19.9% 39.3% 1B $3,000 1B $4,500 1B $9,000
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.330 0.085 34.6% 4.5% 11.9% 45.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,300
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.345 0.133 36.7% 10.1% 18.5% 36.7% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.279 0.147 39.4% 4.4% 29.6% 34.1% C $2,300 C $3,400 C $6,500
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.283 0.096 22.0% 4.8% 20.5% 51.8% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
Team Averages 0.362 0.197 38.0% 8.5% 17.8% 39.4%

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers once again check in with a low implied team total in a difficult matchup with Corey Kluber today. Kluber hasn’t been the same guy we saw last year, but he still isn’t a guy I want to be loading up against. Outside of maybe a GPP flier on a Nick Castellanos, I’m out on Detroit today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.398 0.164 41.9% 10.5% 21.5% 38.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,600
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.301 0.202 34.6% 11.9% 24.6% 38.2% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,700
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.382 0.192 49.1% 5.9% 23.4% 34.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,300
4 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.329 0.220 35.5% 8.9% 32.2% 40.3% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,400 1B $6,500
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.070 41.4% 7.2% 9.2% 39.9% C $2,600 1B $2,900 1B $5,900
6 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.202 0.133 23.8% 6.3% 28.1% 52.4% OF $2,000 1B $3,200 LF $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.274 0.089 35.7% 5.1% 21.7% 39.5% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $4,700
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.267 0.097 24.2% 3.5% 10.9% 46.8% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
9 Victor Reyes RIGHT 0.236 0.047 30.3% 1.2% 22.1% 52.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 LF $5,900
Team Averages 0.303 0.135 35.2% 6.7% 21.5% 42.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Cincinnati
philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-126 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.357 28.0% 6.1% 22.7% 28.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.385 0.379 44.5% 9.3% 20.9% 40.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.268 27.0% 5.5% 23.3% 42.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.328 34.3% 6.2% 22.3% 48.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 11 5.08 6.16 12.5% 4.3% 44.1% 33.3% 16.7% 92.7 7.3%
2018 13 3.89 3.41 23.1% 5.8% 36.0% 27.4% 22.1% 94.2 10.3%
L14 1 8.77 10.13 6.3% 18.8% 16.7% 50.0% 8.3% 94.1 5.3%

Zach Eflin has pitched well this year for the Phillies after struggling mightily in his first couple of stints at the big league level. The right-hander has a 23.1% strikeout rate this year along with low walks and a legit-looking 3.89 SIERA. Most impressively, he has a soft contact rate over 22% and a low hard-hit rate over 27%. One issue with him is that his fly ball lean has resulted in some home runs. Eflin has yielded 9 homers across 13 starts, and today he’ll be pitching in a homer-friendly Great American Ballpark. I would normally have a little interest in Eflin here, but he’s a tad overpriced and I’m not fully ready to buy into him suddenly becoming a good pitcher. I’ll continue with my wait-and-see approach here.

Quick Breakdown: Eflin isn’t awful today, but there are cheaper options in better spots. One of them happens to be pitching in this game.

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 3.63 3.12 27.3% 8.9% 58.8% 29.7% 22.1% 97.5 12.7%
2018 21 4.14 5.30 21.6% 7.7% 44.5% 39.1% 18.0% 95.4 14.0%
L14 2 3.96 2.61 18.0% 2.6% 43.3% 60.0% 6.7% 96.0 11.6%

It feels like we’ve been here several times with Luis Castillo this season, and here we are again. We saw a glimpse of his talent level last season, but he hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success in his second season. The right-hander boasts a 21.6% strikeout rate along with an unsightly hard contact rate over 39%. His 4.14 SIERA is quite a bit better than his 5.30 ERA, so he should start to see some positive regression in that department moving forward. The Phillies have plenty of power in the lineup, but they still strike out a ton against right-handers. The Phils’ 25.7% strikeout rate as a team against righties is the second-highest in baseball behind only the Padres. Given his super cheap price tag on all sites, I think you can risk it with Castillo in this spot. There is always home run risk in this park, but Castillo has major upside, too.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an elite play in all formats, especially at his discounted price.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

While I like Castillo, he still has blow-up risk and this is a great park for power. Hedging your bets on Castillo with some Phillies in tournaments isn’t the worst idea. He’s allowed a .385 wOBA with 11 homers on the season to lefties, so I’d start there with Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Nick Williams and newcomer Asdrubal Cabrera. As usual, Rhys Hoskins is your top play from the right side. I think you can play one of the lefties in cash games if it fits your build (even if you’re rostering Castillo), but I’d reserve the stacks for GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.317 0.127 24.3% 13.3% 22.4% 43.3% 2B $3,200 2B $4,700 2B $9,000
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.380 0.279 35.8% 11.6% 26.0% 27.4% OF $4,300 OF $5,500 IF/OF $10,500
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.306 0.197 26.8% 7.0% 21.2% 40.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 IF/OF $8,600
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.373 0.187 34.5% 20.4% 14.9% 39.4% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 1B $9,200
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.331 0.227 26.0% 5.4% 14.2% 53.1% 3B $3,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,300
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.386 0.224 35.0% 9.0% 22.6% 44.6% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 RF $9,300
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.304 0.117 25.9% 4.7% 22.6% 40.2% SS $2,500 SS $4,000 SS $7,200
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.279 0.149 31.8% 4.1% 37.9% 53.3% C $2,900 C $4,200 C $8,400
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.141 0.150 22.2% 0.0% 59.1% 85.7% P $9,000 P $7,800 P $15,200
Team Averages 0.313 0.184 29.1% 8.4% 26.8% 47.5%

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Like Castillo, Eflin has struggled far more with lefties than righties. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are once again elite individual options, with Tucker Barnhart looking like a decent enough play at catcher. Hunting for home runs with righties like Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez is a fine try in tournaments. If you have the funds, Votto and Scooter look like the best bets for cash games. They aren’t grading out as one of the top stacking options on the board, so I prefer to target Reds bats as one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.306 0.105 32.0% 6.0% 12.1% 36.6% SS $3,100 SS $4,200 SS $8,400
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.360 0.190 39.6% 8.2% 17.0% 37.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,800 2B $8,700
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.458 0.168 38.8% 18.9% 12.8% 33.3% 1B $4,000 1B $4,500 1B $9,100
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.381 0.255 51.1% 9.2% 23.1% 35.6% 3B $4,100 3B $5,100 3B $9,700
5 Mason Williams LEFT 0.063 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 CF $6,400
6 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.332 0.110 39.9% 9.7% 16.9% 41.1% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,800
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.341 0.191 33.3% 6.9% 27.8% 33.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
8 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.177 0.042 21.4% 7.7% 38.5% 84.6% P $6,400 P $6,400 P $13,100
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.245 0.069 20.1% 10.4% 24.2% 46.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.296 0.126 30.7% 8.6% 19.2% 38.7%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles