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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 30th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-31 00:23:26

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Kansas City at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Kansas City Boston
kansascitymlb Jason Hammel bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-155 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.334 31.7% 9.2% 19.9% 36.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.290 32.8% 10.0% 26.0% 40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.327 30.9% 5.9% 18.9% 43.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.287 0.289 31.1% 8.9% 25.8% 45.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.28 3.83 20.8% 7.7% 42.1% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 20 4.86 4.81 17.4% 7.2% 37.9% 29.6% 17.2%
L30 6 4.75 4.76 18.5% 8.0% 41.8% 30.6% 15.3%

Welcome to the Sunday MLB Grind Down. As usual we have a full schedule today so we are going to keep things short and sweet. We’ll kick things off with Jason Hammel vs. the Red Sox. An 18.5% K Rate and 4.76 ERA, already let’s us know this isn’t a good spot. That is compounded by the fact that the Red Sox rank 26th in strikeouts at 19.3%.

Quick Breakdown: This is a great spot to avoid. Especially on an 11-game slate. Let’s move on.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 19 4.10 3.51 24.8% 9.0% 42.0% 31.6% 22.6%
L30 5 4.82 2.12 21.5% 11.6% 41.3% 29.6% 17.3%

Normally, this is a spot that I would normally avoid as well. There isn’t a lot to love at pitcher though. Unless you are in love with the idea of using McCullers against Detroit (we’ll get there), This is about as good as you can do. Pomeranz owns a 2.12 ERA, 21.5% K rate and 11.6% BB rate. The Royals own an 18.9% K rate, .307 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Pomeranz is a pretty average pitcher, he’ll face a below average offense. On a slate without much pitching, Pomeranz grades out as one of the better options.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The best part of having a slate without great pitching options is that we don’t have to dig too deep to look for hitting. The Royals offense is not great which leaves us with very few options here. The best choice is probably Whit Merrifield. He owns a .375 wOBA vs. LH pitching. The rest of the options here are not optimal. You could certainly get away with Jorge Bonifacio but you definitely don’.t need to go there on this particular slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.375 0.332 0.247 33.3% 7.8% 14.4% 34.3% 2B $3,600 2B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.332 0.354 0.218 37.5% 7.1% 26.2% 41.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.361 0.320 0.165 25.7% 5.9% 14.0% 59.3% 1B $3,800 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.323 0.374 0.225 41.7% 3.7% 18.3% 29.8% C $3,400 C $3,700 C $7,200
5 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.322 0.260 0.263 28.1% 2.0% 17.6% 44.4% 3B $3,800 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
6 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.264 0.264 0.096 26.5% 4.0% 13.9% 43.2% SS $2,300 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.447 0.418 0.316 45.8% 11.6% 32.6% 37.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.254 0.294 0.024 23.1% 8.9% 18.8% 56.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.254 0.268 0.152 28.0% 2.9% 23.5% 28.0% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield

Secondary Plays – Jorge Bonifacio

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Boston

The best way to attack Jason Hammel is with LH hitting. He owns a 36.4% GB rate vs. LH compared to 43.5% vs. RH. The Red Sox aren’t the best offense in baseball but thee are a few usable options here. My favorite is Eduardo Nunez who owns a .321 wOBA vs. RH pitching. You could also go with Mookie Betts who owns a .205 ISO vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.349 0.336 0.205 37.7% 10.0% 9.4% 41.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.321 0.263 0.103 24.7% 3.6% 9.4% 53.9% 3B $3,600 3B/OF $3,500 3B $6,800
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.337 0.342 0.171 38.4% 10.8% 16.4% 36.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
4 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.332 0.313 0.099 27.6% 8.8% 9.8% 48.6% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.329 0.352 0.176 35.8% 7.9% 19.0% 43.5% 1B $3,100 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
6 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.313 0.338 0.172 39.0% 9.8% 23.3% 39.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.327 0.378 0.191 42.2% 10.4% 23.3% 39.5% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
8 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.333 0.270 0.147 31.9% 7.5% 18.8% 49.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
9 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.266 0.236 0.057 22.8% 4.7% 21.8% 50.4% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Eduardo Nunez

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Jacob Faria nyyankeesmlb Jordan Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-163 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.281 18.2% 16.9% 15.4% 59.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.307 18.9% 6.0% 18.0% 51.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.271 31.9% 2.9% 25.6% 31.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.301 27.6% 7.7% 22.2% 40.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob Faria
jacob-faria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 4.25 2.52 22.3% 7.4% 40.1% 27.5% 23.2%
L30 4 5.37 2.96 16.2% 10.1% 40.8% 22.5% 22.5%

Jacob Faria has been impressive this season with a 2.96 ERA in four starts. The main issue here is the matchup. The Yankees own a .345 wOBA, 116 wRC+ and 192 ISO vs. RH pitching. They are generally an offense that you want to avoid. Faria does own a 59.1% GB rate vs. LH and 31.2% vs. RH hitting. He could potentially limit the damage but the 22.3% K rate isn’t enough to justify using in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the reward here. Faria can safely be avoided in everything except large tournaments.

Jordan Montgomery
jordan-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 4.34 4.09 21.7% 7.5% 41.5% 26.5% 15.2%
L30 5 4.43 5.06 19.1% 5.2% 42.5% 25.3% 19.5%

Jordan Montgomery gets a plus matchup today against a Rays offense that checks in at 26% K rate, .305 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against LH pitching. Overall, he owns a 4.09 ERA, 21.7% K rate and 7.5% BB rate. On a slate without much pitching, Montgomery is one of the better options. He owns a .269 wOBA vs. LH and .314 vs. RH hitting.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery may not be safe enough for cash games but he’s not far away especially on this slate. He’s firmly in play for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

We would prefer to use RH hitters against Montgomery as he owns a .314 wOBA and 40.1% GB rate. That said, the Rays don’t really have much to offer. Steven Souza and Trevor Plouffe are probably the best you could do here. If targeting LH bats, Lucas Duda also make sense but you don’t have to go there on a slate this large.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.329 0.266 0.093 26.9% 13.4% 26.8% 47.0% OF $3,800 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
2 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.303 0.352 0.058 39.6% 8.0% 21.3% 47.2% 2B $2,000 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.281 0.320 0.171 41.3% 12.9% 22.6% 52.5% 3B $3,500 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.350 0.337 0.218 29.8% 14.0% 23.7% 36.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.405 0.404 0.313 33.3% 5.9% 5.9% 46.7% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.378 0.288 0.209 30.9% 4.2% 25.4% 49.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.307 0.317 0.110 37.5% 8.8% 28.6% 53.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.307 0.301 0.160 33.3% 3.6% 10.7% 50.0% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.331 0.283 0.193 40.5% 8.1% 24.2% 45.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Steven Souza and Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

The Yankees are an offense that you can stack almost any day but they don’t necessarily make sense on this slate. Jacob Faria owns a .252 wOBA vs. LH and .279 vs. RH hitting. If targeting Faria, the route to go is RH hitters. The Yankees have plenty to offer there with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. The main issue though is that we aren’t getting any kind of discount here. The Yankees bats are best suited for tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.340 0.216 36.7% 11.5% 19.0% 39.9% OF $4,200 OF $5,000 LF $9,600
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.348 0.336 0.300 53.3% 2.4% 26.2% 36.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.446 0.337 48.5% 15.0% 31.0% 39.1% OF $4,900 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.209 37.1% 8.2% 24.5% 42.7% C $3,600 C $4,600 C $9,000
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.381 0.279 0.240 25.5% 4.3% 13.5% 40.4% SS $3,900 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
6 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.355 0.238 32.1% 10.6% 24.8% 46.2% OF $2,500 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.128 28.0% 13.2% 23.3% 42.8% 1B $3,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.312 0.346 0.191 29.0% 13.5% 21.7% 38.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.282 0.338 0.136 31.3% 15.4% 23.1% 37.5% OF $2,100 SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

LA Angels at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

LA Angels Toronto
laangelsmlb Jesse Chavez torontomlb Cesar Valdez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-136 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.344 31.0% 7.9% 18.9% 41.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.404 48.2% 8.1% 18.9% 40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.342 36.8% 6.5% 20.6% 41.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.437 0.441 51.4% 8.2% 14.3% 37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Chavez
jesse-chavez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.59 4.43 22.3% 6.4% 42.9% 31.2% 16.1%
2017 19 4.71 4.88 18.3% 7.5% 40.4% 36.2% 15.6%
L30 4 4.59 3.80 21.1% 8.9% 34.9% 39.7% 12.7%

Jesse Chavez can best be described as an average pitcher. He owns a 4.88 ERA, 18.3% K rate and 7.5% BB rate. He also has a .329 wOBA vs. LH and .345 vs. RH hitting. The Blue Jays check in at 20.9% K rate, .308 wOBA and 89 wRC+ against RH pitching. This is not a matchup that we want to target. If anything, we’re using Blue Jays bats here.

Quick Breakdown: Chavez can safely be avoided in all formats.

Cesar Valdez
cesar-valdez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 4.79 6.05 16.3% 8.1% 39.1% 50.0% 15.6%
L30 0 2.12 1.59 33.3% 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 14.3%

Cesar Valdez is making a spot start for the Blue Jays today. We don’t have much of an MLB sample to work with here, He’s made just one start this season while primarily working out of the bullpen. He’s only faced 108 batters this season. He’s allowing a .307 wOBA vs. LH and .417 vs. RH hitting. He also owns a 50% hard contact rate. Even against an Angles offense that lacks power this isn’t a spot to target.

Quick Breakdown: Valdez can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

You can certainly use Angles bats today against Valdez. Obviously Mike Trout is in play as he owns a .481 wOBA vs. RH pitching. An Angels mini-stack is not out of the question and neither is using Yunel Escobar, C.J. Cron or Kole Calhoun as one-off plays. Valdez certainly isn’t going to hold this offense down.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.300 0.325 0.138 31.2% 7.6% 13.1% 57.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.481 0.461 0.429 45.3% 16.2% 20.9% 35.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.290 0.320 0.156 35.1% 6.4% 15.2% 45.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
4 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.299 0.310 0.125 31.7% 9.8% 22.3% 40.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.341 0.318 0.164 34.3% 5.6% 10.6% 51.6% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,500
6 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.271 0.284 0.165 32.8% 10.0% 25.8% 38.8% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,900 3B $7,800
7 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.233 0.302 0.040 29.5% 5.5% 20.9% 34.6% 1B $2,500 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.303 0.286 0.185 27.5% 2.8% 23.5% 49.3% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.933 0.653 0.500 50.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3B $2,000 3B $3,900

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, C.J. Cron and Kole Calhoun

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Toronto

The Blue Jays are also firmly in play against Jesse Chavez. They have one of the highest implied team totals of the day. The top option here is Josh Donaldson as he owns a .195 ISO vs. RH pitching. A Blue Jays stack is not out of the question either even on a slate with plenty of hitting. Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak and Russell Martin all make sense here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.334 0.338 0.191 33.8% 13.1% 22.6% 33.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.344 0.335 0.169 30.8% 14.5% 22.4% 51.5% C $2,600 C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.346 0.341 0.195 31.6% 14.5% 25.9% 43.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.375 0.398 0.292 39.7% 10.7% 22.1% 33.0% 1B $3,900 1B $5,300 1B $10,400
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.301 0.358 0.186 37.6% 6.8% 22.2% 47.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.329 0.307 0.142 32.3% 5.4% 21.7% 45.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.273 0.311 0.130 27.6% 5.2% 15.4% 45.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
8 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.187 0.254 0.111 19.1% 3.6% 21.4% 61.9% 1B/OF $3,100 1B $6,000
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.265 0.286 0.130 28.1% 7.8% 17.6% 44.3% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Russell Martin and Justin Smoak

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Cincinnati at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Miami
cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-126 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.225 32.0% 8.8% 28.8% 56.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.286 0.307 29.3% 11.0% 21.6% 35.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.284 29.0% 12.1% 30.3% 55.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.314 35.9% 6.1% 21.1% 32.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 6 3.71 3.86 29.5% 10.3% 55.7% 30.7% 20.5%
L30 5 3.35 3.90 30.7% 8.1% 52.6% 29.0% 22.4%

On a slate that lacks pitching, Luis Castillo makes a lot of sense. He owns a 3.86 ERA. 29.5% K rate and 10.3% BB rate. Obviously, the walks are a problem but he’s compensating for them with a 55.7% ground ball rate. The Marlins own a 20.5% K rate, .324 wOBA and 97 wRC+ vs. RH pitching. Castillo owns a .295 wOBA vs. LH hitting and .349 wOBA vs. RH hitting.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo will have to work his way around the RH hitters here but his 56.3% ground ball rate says that he should be able to limit the damage. He’s cash game playable and a pretty decent option for tournaments as well.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 20 4.22 3.49 22.8% 7.0% 35.7% 34.2% 20.4%
L30 5 4.99 3.68 15.7% 4.1% 30.2% 34.0% 18.6%

Dan Straily is pretty similar to Jesse Chavez. Across the board he’s pretty average. He owns a 3.49 ERA, 22.8% K rate and 7% BB rate. The main issue with Straily is that he has an incredibly low ground ball rate at 35.7% while also allowing 34.2% hard contact. The Reds are a sneaky good offense against RH pitching with a 21.2% K rate, .328 wOBA and 98 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: Straily’s ERA is lower than it should be due to pitching at a good ballpark. His fly ball tendencies play well at Marlins Park but there’s not enough strikeout upside here to make him worth using today.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are pretty good options today against Dan Straily. His 34.2% hard contact rate says that you could certainly use a Reds stack in cash games or tournaments. The top option here is Joey Votto as he owns a .410 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Scooter Gennett also makes sense as he owns a .410 wOBA vs. RH as does Billy Hamilton strictly for the stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.267 0.080 17.8% 8.8% 19.9% 45.4% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.439 0.363 0.328 41.7% 6.6% 20.8% 40.7% 2B $2,900 2B/OF $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.410 0.422 0.268 35.7% 16.7% 11.7% 35.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.333 0.288 0.233 33.7% 5.3% 27.6% 31.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.337 0.335 0.195 29.5% 10.7% 23.0% 44.0% 3B $3,000 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.333 0.365 0.254 39.4% 10.1% 22.5% 44.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.255 0.267 0.079 19.9% 1.1% 14.8% 41.4% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,600
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.323 0.332 0.135 35.1% 7.9% 14.7% 41.5% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.000 0.064 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 54.5% 50.0% P $7,100 P $7,000 P $13,800

Elite Plays – Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Miami

On a slate with plenty of hitting, the Marlins are pretty avoidable against Luis Castillo. He owns a 55.7% ground ball rate overall. If targeting Castillo, you want to use RH hitters here as they own a .349 wOBA. That obviously leads us to Giancarlo Stanton who owns a .386 wOBA vs. RH pitching. There isn’t really a need to use other Marlins though you could make a case for Dee Gordon and Tyler Moore.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.309 0.268 0.068 19.3% 4.9% 13.4% 56.4% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.386 0.375 0.301 37.8% 9.6% 25.8% 43.1% OF $4,600 OF $5,700 RF $11,200
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.336 0.351 0.125 37.7% 11.6% 18.7% 58.3% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 CF $8,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.390 0.371 0.266 44.1% 7.4% 23.0% 45.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.333 0.332 0.146 30.7% 6.1% 15.5% 50.7% C $3,400 C $3,900 C $7,600
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.270 0.281 0.135 32.9% 4.7% 18.7% 38.7% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.386 0.316 0.344 35.6% 4.5% 27.3% 31.1% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.347 0.308 0.051 12.7% 9.0% 9.0% 48.1% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,400 2B $4,800
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.054 0.099 0.000 18.8% 2.9% 50.0% 90.9% P $7,600 P $7,700 P $15,300

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon and Tyler Moore

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Houston at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Houston Detroit
houstonmlb Lance McCullers detroitmlb Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-114 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.268 26.9% 7.8% 31.7% 59.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.291 29.4% 9.6% 28.6% 30.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.297 23.8% 11.6% 25.4% 61.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.310 34.1% 6.1% 23.0% 36.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance McCullers
lance-mccullers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $19,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 3.68 3.22 30.1% 12.8% 57.3% 25.4% 19.9%
2017 18 3.20 3.67 26.8% 7.5% 63.2% 25.0% 22.1%
L30 4 4.14 8.53 17.7% 9.4% 63.6% 20.9% 20.9%

Lance McCullers is the lone ace on the early slate. He’s had a rough time lately though with an 8.53 ERA over the last 30 days (four starts). McCullers owns a 63.2% ground ball rate and 26.8% K rate. The Tigers own a 21.8% K rate, .316 wOBA and 95 wRC+ vs. RH pitching. There’s some obvious downside here but McCullers is easily the best option today for cash games. Especially on FanDuel where they have priced in his recent struggles.

Quick Breakdown: McCullers is the best cash game option on the early slate.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 21 4.70 4.50 22.0% 10.5% 33.8% 36.6% 15.6%
L30 6 4.53 4.46 21.3% 8.8% 33.3% 33.9% 17.9%

Trade rumors have been swirling for a while around Justin Verlander. If I’m being honest, Verlander has more name value than he probably deserves at this point in his career. He owns a 4.5 ERA, 22% K rate and 10.5% BB rate this season. He checks in at .283 wOBA vs. LH and .295 vs. RH hitting. Those numbers are somewhat low for someone that owns a 33.3% ground ball rate. Verlander is an easy avoid though today against an Astros offense that checks in at 17.6% K rate, .366 wOBA and 133 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros make sense today in tournaments but Justin Verlander isn’t even close to being the worst pitcher on this slate. The one play that stands out here is Derek Fisher. Assuming that he leads off again, he’s a great value play on FanDuel at just $2,200. You can also make the case for Jose Altuve and Josh Reddick but this is an offense best suited for tournaments on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Fisher LEFT 0.569 0.503 0.500 60.0% 20.0% 13.3% 40.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.422 0.358 0.202 28.0% 8.9% 12.3% 48.6% 2B $4,500 2B $5,500 2B $10,800
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.365 0.342 0.218 35.8% 7.8% 13.1% 32.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.365 0.335 0.216 36.2% 1.6% 10.4% 42.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.434 0.338 0.278 33.8% 11.1% 19.4% 44.1% SS $3,700 3B/OF $4,500 1B $8,700
6 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.313 0.285 0.197 34.0% 7.6% 19.1% 46.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.320 0.326 0.179 35.7% 8.6% 17.2% 43.3% C $2,700 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.321 0.343 0.168 32.5% 9.3% 17.1% 40.7% 3B $2,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.314 0.279 0.110 18.8% 7.1% 13.1% 56.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 LF $6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Derek Fisher

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Detroit

The Tigers can easily be avoided on this slate. McCullers own s a 63.4% ground ball rate. Justin Upton makes the most sense here a she owns a .356 wOBA vs. RH but there’s really no reason to go here at all.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.308 0.314 0.119 34.4% 10.1% 12.2% 33.0% 2B $3,600 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.300 0.337 0.150 46.2% 7.6% 25.6% 40.9% 3B $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.356 0.353 0.228 43.1% 12.0% 27.3% 36.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.311 0.390 0.179 46.4% 10.4% 20.1% 41.1% 1B $3,600 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.305 0.368 0.139 42.9% 9.2% 13.5% 40.1% C $3,000 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
6 Alex Avila LEFT 0.391 0.430 0.226 54.0% 16.7% 30.3% 36.3% C $2,200 1B/C $3,000 C $6,000
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.339 0.311 0.138 35.6% 5.0% 21.8% 48.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
8 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.356 0.377 0.190 60.6% 10.6% 19.1% 54.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,300 LF $4,500
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.277 0.247 0.101 29.3% 4.3% 14.2% 54.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.