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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 8th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-09 00:42:30

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Domingo German torontomlb Ryan Borucki
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-135 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.294 34.0% 86.8 22.1% 37.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.355 0.290 40.0% 85.9 16.7% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.315 41.6% 88.6 32.3% 38.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.253 21.2% 86.2 21.3% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Domingo German
domingo-german-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.93 3.14 29.0% 14.5% 54.5% 28.6% 25.7%
2018 10 3.47 5.37 27.5% 8.1% 37.6% 37.6% 17.7%
L14 2 4.21 9.72 20.5% 6.8% 32.3% 38.7% 22.6%

Domingo German has been inconsistent since joining the Yankees’ rotation. The right-hander boasts a strong strikeout rate north of 27%, but he’s also shown a fly ball lean along with a hard contact rate of 37.6% against him. The 3.48 SIERA suggests he’s been solid overall, though he has conceded 13 home runs across his 16 appearances. German has been in rocky form of late and he draws a matchup today against a solid Toronto offense. German’s strikeout upside makes him a fine GPP play, but there are better plays for cash games.

Quick Breakdown: German has enough K upside to warrant consideration in tournaments.

Ryan Borucki
ryan-borucki-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 2 4.05 2.77 20.8% 7.6% 44.7% 23.7% 15.8%
L14 2 4.05 2.77 20.8% 7.6% 44.7% 23.7% 15.8%

Ryan Borucki has put together a couple of solid starts for Toronto this season. The southpaw has allowed 4 earned runs across his first 13 innings of work, and he struck out 8 Tigers in his last outing. Borucki showed decent strikeout ability during his time in the minors, but today he’ll be facing a dangerous Yankees lineup. Borucki is a prospect, but I’ll wait for a better matchup before trusting him from a DFS standpoint.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll take a wait-and-see approach with Borucki.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

While I’m hesitant to roster Borucki here, I’m also not crazy about stacking Yankees against him. Borucki is a lefty with a funky delivery that hides the ball well, which keeps opposing hitters off-balance. Those are things that obviously can make things tough on his opponents, especially those that have never faced him before. I still think there’s always merit to stacking the Yankees, especially considering how much home run upside the lineup carries. As usual, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are elite options. I’d leave the rest of the Yanks as secondary options in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.458 92.3 0.368 52.5% 10.3% 18.4% 28.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,900 CF $9,200
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.404 94.1 0.250 43.1% 20.5% 33.0% 33.3% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $10,700
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.493 98.2 0.414 65.1% 10.1% 26.3% 33.3% OF $4,600 OF $5,100 RF $9,800
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.263 79.0 0.108 27.9% 6.9% 14.9% 46.1% SS $3,900 SS $4,500 SS $9,100
5 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.329 90.3 0.288 32.8% 6.8% 15.9% 44.8% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.305 84.2 0.000 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 50.0% 1B $2,400 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.218 85.5 0.029 33.3% 5.4% 29.7% 41.7% 2B $2,500 1B/2B $3,100 2B $5,500
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.297 89.2 0.188 38.5% 3.0% 18.2% 42.3% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,400
9 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.383 84.7 0.125 42.9% 20.0% 10.0% 57.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,300
Team Averages 0.350 88.6 0.197 37.3% 11.4% 22.9% 41.9%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird, Neil Walker

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Toronto

German has been decent for New York, but he’s not impervious to being knocked around a bit. The right-hander has allowed 13 dingers on the season, 7 of which have come against left-handed bats. The Jays aren’t the Yankees when it comes to power, but Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Yangervis Solarte and Curtis Granderson are some respectable lefty sticks. German hasn’t shut down righties, either, so I’m fine with guys like Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk as GPP darts. A Toronto stack will be contrarian enough in GPPs to where I’d have some interest.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.352 88.2 0.222 37.1% 13.4% 28.2% 34.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.397 92.3 0.241 40.6% 5.4% 24.8% 37.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.341 88.8 0.179 30.9% 7.8% 16.4% 40.0% 3B $3,000 2B/3B $4,000 3B $7,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.381 91.9 0.225 34.8% 18.1% 26.5% 34.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.333 87.9 0.152 34.8% 4.2% 19.9% 39.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 CF $7,500
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 90.7 0.148 32.7% 16.2% 23.7% 45.5% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,500
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.341 91.4 0.273 39.2% 7.3% 26.0% 40.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.388 93.7 0.228 36.4% 1.7% 22.4% 40.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,600
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.340 89.0 0.191 35.6% 3.1% 13.2% 43.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
Team Averages 0.355 90.4 0.207 35.8% 8.6% 22.3% 39.5%

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Oakland Cleveland
oaklandmlb Brett Anderson clevelandmlb Shane Bieber
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-200 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.367 0.418 35.3% 89.7 0.0% 70.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.441 0.381 54.2% 92.1 22.9% 37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.464 0.412 34.2% 91.8 15.4% 48.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.226 0.249 35.6% 86.7 22.0% 55.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson
brett-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,300
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.84 6.34 15.1% 8.4% 49.2% 36.5% 21.9%
2018 4 4.94 7.63 11.1% 8.3% 55.2% 34.5% 17.2%

Brett Anderson is an oft-injured lefty that hasn’t enjoyed consistent success at the major league level in quite some time. In a limited 4-start sample with the A’s this season, the veteran has a SIERA of 5.78 along with a terrible strikeout rate just over 11%. Anderson can still keep the ball on the ground at a decent rate, but I have no idea why you’d play this guy at this point, especially in a brutal matchup in Cleveland.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson is one of the easiest fades of the slate.

Shane Bieber
shane-bieber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $19,000
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 5 3.50 2.97 22.5% 3.9% 46.2% 45.2% 8.6%
L14 3 3.69 2.37 20.5% 3.9% 45.6% 42.1% 8.8%

Shane Bieber has looked good since getting the call for the Indians last month. The righty has a K-rate over 22% and he isn’t walking anybody. The hard contact rate against him over 45% is cause for concern, but his 3.51 SIERA suggests his early results are legitimate. The problem with Bieber today is his price tag. DraftKings wants you to pay nearly $10k for a guy in a high-risk matchup in a ballpark favorable for power hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Bieber is far from the worst option on the board, but there are several cheaper pitchers in better spots today.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Shane Bieber has allowed 3 homers in his first 5 starts and his hard contact rate has been through the roof. He profiles as a solid ground ball pitcher, but the Oakland offense is one that hits tons of fly balls. Those fly balls have a way of turning into lazy outs in Oakland, but Progressive Field is a different story. The A’s don’t grade out as an elite offense on this slate, but I still think they make for a viable GPP stack. Bieber has been getting shellacked by lefties in the early going, so Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie, Dustin Fowler and Matt Joyce are all solid tries. Khris Davis and Matt Chapman are some right-handed power bats worth considering, as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Fowler LEFT 0.343 90.1 0.159 47.0% 5.2% 20.0% 42.0% OF $2,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,700
2 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.342 86.6 0.113 41.1% 10.6% 23.9% 43.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,200
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.336 88.7 0.240 36.5% 10.8% 21.1% 37.3% 2B $3,600 2B/3B $4,800 2B $8,600
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.432 93.9 0.281 49.7% 7.8% 23.0% 36.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.410 94.3 0.258 53.3% 11.1% 25.9% 32.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.376 88.8 0.178 47.0% 6.4% 19.1% 44.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.383 92.8 0.203 45.5% 11.8% 22.7% 39.1% 3B $2,800 3B $4,100 3B $8,400
8 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.302 85.7 0.083 27.9% 7.2% 17.9% 44.2% SS $3,200 SS $3,900 SS $7,400
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.329 88.3 0.088 41.9% 5.8% 14.5% 45.2% C $2,000 C $3,100 C $5,600
Team Averages 0.361 89.9 0.178 43.3% 8.5% 20.9% 40.5%

Elite Plays – Matt Olson, Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Joyce, Dustin Fowler

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Brett Anderson seems to be pretty terrible at this stage of his career, and the Indians have made a habit of punishing everybody of late. Edwin Encarnacion is an awesome play today, while the ablaze Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are also squarely in play if you have some money to spend. Lefties aren’t out of play against Anderson either, so I still think you can play Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis as potentially low-owned options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.404 92.1 0.220 42.1% 9.7% 11.5% 46.0% SS $5,100 SS $5,800 SS $10,300
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.353 88.9 0.134 28.0% 5.7% 8.0% 52.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,100 LF $9,900
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.369 89.4 0.204 40.2% 6.1% 11.1% 37.0% 3B $5,000 3B $5,900 IF/OF $11,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.376 89.8 0.153 46.2% 13.3% 24.1% 25.0% 1B $4,200 1B $4,800 1B $8,700
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.333 86.6 0.176 34.6% 6.8% 23.0% 40.4% 1B $2,800 1B $4,600 1B $9,100
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.322 85.3 0.118 32.8% 11.5% 21.8% 31.6% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,700
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.435 93.3 0.292 50.0% 10.7% 25.3% 23.9% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,300
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.214 83.4 0.071 9.1% 0.0% 21.4% 54.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.245 81.7 0.000 38.5% 0.0% 40.9% 36.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.339 87.8 0.152 35.7% 7.1% 20.8% 38.5%

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Mets
tampabaymlb Nathan Eovaldi nymetsmlb Chris Flexen
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -126 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.262 0.340 33.3% 88.3 17.7% 48.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.261 0.215 25.0% 79.8 16.7% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.307 31.3% 89.3 25.0% 50.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.668 0.569 50.0% 91.2 0.0% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi
nathan-eovaldi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 7 3.56 3.92 21.9% 3.8% 49.6% 32.2% 21.2%
L14 2 2.79 1.50 29.8% 6.4% 58.6% 41.4% 10.3%

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well for the Rays since coming off the DL. The right-hander has a 3.58 SIERA through 7 starts along with a strikeout rate just under 22%. He doesn’t walk anybody and he’s kept the ball on the ground nearly 50% of the time. Eovaldi has thrown at least 100 pitches in 3 of his starts, so he’s fully stretched out at this point. He gets a great matchup today against a punchless Mets lineup in the friendly confines of Citi Field. Given the combination of an affordable price tag and a not-so-daunting matchup, Eovaldi grades out as one of the top pitching options on the afternoon slate.

Quick Breakdown: Eovaldi is a viable play in all formats.

Chris Flexen
chris-flexen-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 9 6.08 7.88 15.5% 15.0% 41.4% 35.0% 23.1%
2018 0 6.33 10.80 4.6% 13.6% 50.0% 44.4% 16.7%
L14 0 6.63 6.75 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 20.0% 40.0%

Chris Flexen will be making his first big league start of the season after appearing in 3 games out of the Mets’ bullpen. In 14 games (13 starts) down in the minors, the righty has a middling strikeout rate just under 20% along with a walk rate nearing 9%. He keeps the ball on the ground well, but he also hasn’t yet enjoyed much success in the majors. In a limited sample, Flexen has a career SIERA over 6.00 and he has yielded a hard-hit rate of 36%. He’s inexpensive and in a decent matchup, but Flexen’s sketchy track record at the big league level makes him a risk.

Quick Breakdown: Flexen is a clear fade today.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays get a decent matchup with Chris Flexen, but Citi Field isn’t really a place you typically find many appealing bats. Tampa’s hitters are cheap, though, so if you’re looking for some salary relief you could do worse than taking a chance on a few of these guys. Matt Duffy and Wilson Ramos make the most sense, while C.J. Cron has plenty of power upside. I don’t think Flexen is someone to be scared of, but the Rays’ hitters don’t look all that great, either.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.246 86.3 0.043 33.3% 10.1% 30.4% 59.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.325 86.7 0.116 31.6% 5.1% 15.0% 51.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,500 3B $6,400
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.351 90.0 0.169 41.3% 17.5% 23.8% 43.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,200
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.360 91.3 0.160 40.7% 7.9% 20.7% 52.4% C $3,000 C $3,800 C $7,700
5 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.278 89.7 0.082 35.2% 5.3% 23.2% 51.6% 2B $2,400 2B $3,000 2B $5,700
6 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.331 86.8 0.128 37.8% 14.6% 28.1% 46.9% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,600
7 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.284 83.9 0.101 27.0% 8.8% 19.8% 47.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.286 85.0 0.113 30.2% 6.6% 26.5% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
9 Nathan Eovaldi RIGHT 0.643 102.9 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $6,800 P $8,000 P $15,400
Team Averages 0.345 89.2 0.101 41.9% 8.4% 20.8% 42.8%

Elite Plays – Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy, C.J. Cron, Daniel Robertson

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

I like Eovaldi today, so I don’t have a whole lot of interest in playing Mets against him. The right-hander has allowed a .340 career wOBA to lefties, so someone like Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo would be playable if you must play some Mets hitters for some reason. New York has one of the lowest implied team totals of the slate, so I’d hesitate to go much further than that.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.386 90.2 0.294 38.5% 13.0% 23.8% 33.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 LF $8,500
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.356 92.2 0.182 51.0% 16.1% 29.0% 35.3% OF $3,000 3B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,400
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.381 90.4 0.231 44.8% 7.1% 19.7% 38.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 SS $8,500
4 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.351 87.8 0.144 33.6% 16.8% 22.0% 37.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 LF $7,600
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.345 88.2 0.252 39.8% 8.5% 11.1% 37.6% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,600
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.367 91.0 0.185 46.0% 10.2% 21.4% 36.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.347 87.3 0.234 35.2% 6.6% 19.0% 33.0% C $2,300 C $3,300 C $6,300
8 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.278 87.3 0.104 26.9% 6.0% 20.5% 50.3% SS $2,100 SS $3,000 SS $5,600
9 Chris Flexen RIGHT P $5,500 P $5,400 P $11,000
Team Averages 0.351 89.3 0.203 39.5% 10.5% 20.8% 37.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – RED

Texas at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Texas Detroit
texasmlb Austin Bibens-Dirkx detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-116 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.365 50.0% 90.0 17.3% 34.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.342 37.2% 89.7 20.0% 42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.345 38.5% 88.4 16.0% 31.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.338 41.7% 87.4 20.6% 49.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Austin Bibens-Dirkx
austin-bibens-dirkx-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,500
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 6 5.20 4.67 12.7% 6.7% 39.9% 36.6% 16.8%
2018 5 4.67 4.40 16.5% 6.3% 32.6% 43.6% 17.0%
L14 2 5.00 4.09 20.0% 12.0% 25.8% 40.6% 18.8%

Austin Bibens-Dirkx has a strikeout rate of 16.5% along with a 4.67 SIERA this season. He’s also a fly ball pitcher allowing a hard contact rate over 43%. There aren’t really any statistics out there to suggest that Bibens-Dirkx is a worthwhile cause from a DFS perspective. He’s cheap and the Tigers are a mediocre offense, but this isn’t the spot to be risking it with ABD.

Quick Breakdown: It would require an unlikely series of weather-related postponements for me to come close to considering Bibens-Dirkx today.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 17 4.21 4.22 20.3% 7.9% 45.9% 39.2% 15.2%
L14 2 4.13 4.50 16.7% 5.0% 50.0% 34.0% 17.0%

Michael Fulmer is about as average as average gets. He has a strikeout rate a hair over 20% this season alongside a SIERA of 4.22. The hard contact rate against him of 39.2% is quite high, and he’s on pace to allow a career-high in home runs by a wide margin. Fulmer has been vulnerable against lefty power this season, and Texas has some left-handed pop in the lineup. Even so, this Rangers lineup has plenty of strikeouts in it and Fulmer is one of those guys that rarely gets blasted. Fulmer is cheap enough to warrant consideration here.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer looks like a passable SP2 option against Texas.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The boom-or-bust Rangers will take their hacks against a generally decent righty in Michael Fulmer today. Fulmer has shown fairly neutral splits in his career to this point, which doesn’t necessarily help a lefty-heavy Texas offense. Fulmer does allow more hard contact and fly balls against left-handers, so you can take a stab with a Ranger lefty or two against him. Joey Gallo and Rougned Odor are quite HR-dependent, while Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo are more well-rounded from the left side. I don’t think this is a great spot to be stacking the Rangers, so I’d prefer to pick my spots here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.420 90.9 0.248 49.1% 15.8% 21.0% 49.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 RF $8,700
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.326 87.0 0.143 30.7% 8.4% 10.5% 50.7% SS $3,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,700
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.378 91.0 0.181 39.6% 8.9% 18.3% 53.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.345 88.8 0.142 44.4% 9.3% 18.5% 41.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,300
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.315 87.3 0.139 40.4% 9.0% 25.8% 38.0% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
6 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.326 86.8 0.165 32.2% 7.7% 15.8% 45.0% 3B $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,400
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.390 94.6 0.251 50.0% 13.7% 34.4% 31.1% OF $3,000 1B/OF $4,200 1B $8,300
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.295 88.1 0.214 50.6% 8.2% 40.2% 32.1% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,900
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.250 80.0 0.060 26.6% 10.6% 24.1% 48.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
Team Averages 0.338 88.3 0.171 40.4% 10.2% 23.2% 43.3%

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers will see Austin Bibens-Dirkx a mediocre right-hander that allows plenty of fly balls and hard-hit balls. It’s rare, but this is one of those days in which the Tigers stand out as a strong offense to consider. Nick Castellanos is the best bat on the team, while Jeimer Candelario will have the platoon edge. John Hicks and Niko Goodrum also stand out as solid plays at relatively thin positions. Mikie Mahtook and JaCoby Jones are both super cheap and one of them may wind up leading off, as well. Feel free to stack some Tigers against ABD.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.245 88.0 0.071 21.4% 6.5% 25.8% 40.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,500
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.380 90.0 0.202 48.5% 5.4% 22.9% 32.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,900 IF/OF $8,700
3 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.306 87.5 0.197 34.7% 12.2% 23.9% 38.1% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
4 John Hicks RIGHT 0.288 86.3 0.156 41.8% 4.7% 30.2% 42.1% 1B $2,800 1B/C $3,600 1B $7,300
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.331 89.0 0.217 36.3% 9.0% 32.2% 41.2% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,700 1B $7,500
6 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.200 79.9 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 75.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.270 88.3 0.056 35.5% 5.3% 21.6% 39.9% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.276 84.5 0.093 24.9% 3.6% 11.6% 45.6% SS $2,300 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.297 87.3 0.167 29.8% 4.2% 28.0% 40.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
Team Averages 0.288 86.8 0.129 30.3% 5.7% 24.0% 44.0%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, John Hicks

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Mikie Mahtook, JaCoby Jones

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Trevor Richards washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-200 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 0.297 33.8% 86.0 24.3% 34.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.336 28.0% 86.9 22.0% 39.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.407 0.391 50.6% 90.1 17.2% 42.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.368 33.1% 87.7 17.2% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Richards
trevor-richards-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,900
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 11 4.48 5.26 20.6% 9.4% 38.6% 43.1% 14.4%
L14 3 3.57 4.80 25.0% 6.3% 35.7% 41.9% 11.6%

Trevor Richards is a mediocre rookie right-hander. His K-rate around 20% and 4.50 SIERA are nothing to get excited about, and he’s also allowed hard hits at a 43.1% clip. Richards is also a fly ball pitcher going into Nationals park to take on a Washington team that has been mashing the ball over the last few days. The righty has shown some pretty staunch reverse splits so far, albeit in a small sample size of 11 MLB starts. There isn’t enough upside to warrant playing Richards in any format.

Quick Breakdown: There’s more downside than upside with Richards today.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7%
2018 17 4.45 4.60 19.7% 8.5% 42.3% 30.6% 18.8%
L14 3 4.85 8.31 19.5% 11.0% 34.0% 28.6% 12.5%

Tanner Roark has to be one of the least exciting pitchers in the league from a fantasy perspective. The veteran comes with a mediocre 4.47 SIERA on the season along with a strikeout rate of 19.7%. He has been solid in terms of limiting hard contact over the years, which helps him avoid getting blown up on a regular basis. The Marlins aren’t a great offense by any means, but we saw last night that their pesky, low-strikeout ways can occasionally make them a difficult team to target. Roark is playable today on a slate without many clear-cut options, but he’s a tad overpriced given his skill level.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is a pitcher you can consider on this slate, but he has very little upside overall.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

While I’m not particularly excited by the idea of playing Tanner Roark here, I also see little interest to go out of my way to load up on bats on the other side. That said, he has allowed a .331 wOBA along with 8 home runs to left-handed hitters so far this season. Justin Bour is one of the most routinely underpriced first basemen, so he looks like a solid value option. Ditto for Derek Dietrich, especially if he finds himself leading off again. J.T. Realmuto is expensive, but he’s also one of the best hitting catchers in the league. You can also punt with Martin Prado if you’re strapped for cash.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.346 88.4 0.167 36.5% 5.4% 21.7% 40.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,300
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.348 89.7 0.100 37.2% 8.1% 19.6% 52.1% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,300
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.393 91.1 0.270 44.4% 6.3% 17.1% 43.7% C $3,300 C $4,800 C $9,100
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.390 90.3 0.234 42.5% 17.1% 24.1% 39.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,700
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.313 87.5 0.116 36.2% 5.8% 18.7% 49.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.279 89.2 0.041 27.1% 5.1% 19.2% 44.1% 3B $2,500 3B $2,900 3B $5,400
7 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.287 88.7 0.082 39.5% 9.7% 24.2% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,800
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.325 88.5 0.211 37.8% 4.9% 22.5% 43.1% SS $2,100 SS $3,300 SS $6,800
9 Trevor Richards RIGHT 0.028 88.7 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 70.0% 100.0% P $5,800 P $6,900 P $13,900
Team Averages 0.301 89.1 0.136 33.5% 6.9% 26.3% 51.4%

Elite Plays – Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Martin Prado

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nats’ matchup today against Trevor Richards isn’t quite as appealing as the one last night against Wei-Yin Chen, but they’re still one of the better offenses on the slate. Bryce Harper did have 3 hits last night, but I’m likely going to keep reserving him for GPPs until he shows he’s fully snapped out of his extended funk. Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Trea Turner and Matt Adams each look like excellent options. Mark Reynolds may garner some ownership after knocking in 10 runs last night. While he’s still a decent play in his own right, first base looks like a spot to be paying up for today. You can stack the Nats in any format.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.332 89.0 0.143 33.7% 9.3% 21.0% 53.4% SS $4,300 SS $5,200 IF/OF $9,800
2 Juan Soto LEFT 0.381 89.5 0.202 36.1% 17.5% 19.3% 47.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 LF $8,700
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.398 91.4 0.236 37.4% 9.3% 14.7% 34.4% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 3B $9,400
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.402 91.2 0.296 43.3% 18.3% 24.0% 36.4% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 RF $9,600
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.409 90.3 0.331 45.8% 10.5% 21.7% 32.3% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.381 87.6 0.125 44.6% 6.7% 16.9% 46.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.351 87.9 0.078 17.4% 5.6% 9.3% 30.4% 1B $2,800 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
8 Spencer Kieboom RIGHT 0.334 86.3 0.061 24.0% 13.2% 21.1% 33.3% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.146 79.5 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 35.3% 90.0% P $7,200 P $8,100 P $15,900
Team Averages 0.348 88.1 0.164 33.6% 10.0% 20.4% 44.9%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Matt Adams, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton

Secondary Plays – Mark Reynolds, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles