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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 11th - Page Two

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-11 15:29:11

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Miami at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Miami Pittsburgh
miamimlb Jeff Locke pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-138 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.298 20.4% 5.9% 12.9% 46.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.345 0.364 36.4% 3.3% 12.0% 46.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.361 0.350 34.6% 8.7% 14.0% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.288 31.0% 3.6% 20.8% 57.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Locke
jeff-locke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 5.06 5.44 12.9% 7.8% 47.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 2 4.16 3.48 23.3% 9.3% 48.3% 27.6% 17.2%

Jeff Locke has a 3.48 ERA through two starts this season. His K rate is 23.3% in those two starts but really doesn’t match his 8.9% SwStr rate. Locke’s true ability is probably closer to his 16.4% career K rate. Locke will face his former team as the Pirates own a 21.9% K rate, .300 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against LH pitching. If you want to target Locke, he had a .322 wOBA against LH hitting and .372 wOBA against RH hitting last season. Of his 17 home runs, 13 were RH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Locke is a low end SP2 in tournaments today. The Pirates don’t strikeout enough at 21.9% to justify using Locke on a single pitcher site. They don’t have enough power to scare me off him on DraftKings though. I still prefer Hahn but you can make a case for Locke in tournaments.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 12 4.29 3.04 13.3% 2.1% 49.4% 32.0% 15.5%

Ivan Nova dealt with some knee inflammation in his last start. It’s a positive sign though that the injury did not earn him a trip to the DL. Nova owns a 3.04 ERA through 12 starts this season. Nova has excellent control with a 49.4% ground ball rate and 2.1% BB rate but he barely strikes anyone out with a 13.3% K rate. He’ll take on a Marlins team with a 20.2% K rate, .317 wOBA and 95 wRC+. It’s also worth noting that Giancarlo Stanton left yesterday’s game with a wrist injury. The Marlins are also without Justin Bour right now.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t have any interest in Nova on FanDuel at $8,100 as he has nowhere near the upside as the top option. If we are digging down deep on multi-pitcher sites, Nova offers probably the same amount of safety as Hahn or Locke. The main concern is the knee injury but it doesn’t seem to be serious.Nova should be facing a paper thin Marlins lineup. He’s close to being a cash game option if all you are looking for is 15-20 fantasy points on DK.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Ivan Nova has a .316 wOBA vs LH and .264 wOBA vs RH hitters. The Marlins have one of the lower team totals on the slate here. We’re mainly interested in LH hitters that hit RH pitching well. That starts with Christian Yelich who owns a .372 wOBA vs. RH pitching. As a punt option, J.T. Riddle could also be worth a look as he owns a .313 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.301 0.244 0.077 18.8% 5.7% 15.5% 57.5% 2B $3,200 2B $4,500 2B $8,800
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.336 0.336 0.224 37.3% 9.6% 28.4% 40.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.372 0.385 0.192 39.7% 12.2% 19.4% 54.6% OF $3,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.339 0.335 0.189 36.3% 7.6% 19.9% 46.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
5 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.335 0.336 0.148 29.7% 7.9% 19.6% 37.2% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.325 0.317 0.281 39.1% 2.9% 29.4% 39.1% OF $2,400 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.313 0.317 0.188 44.8% 3.4% 20.5% 44.6% SS $2,800 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 A.J. Ellis RIGHT 0.275 0.304 0.079 30.8% 10.4% 16.0% 46.4% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $5,200
9 Jeff Locke LEFT 0.115 0.075 0.000 0.0% 2.9% 45.7% 91.7% P $6,500 P $5,500 P $10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich and J.T. Riddle

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

The Pirates should be familiar with Jeff Locke as he pitched for them for several years. If you want to target Locke, he had a .322 wOBA against LH hitting and .372 wOBA against RH hitting last season. Of his 17 home runs, 13 were RH hitters. I’m not entirely ready to believe that Locke’s new found strikeout ability is for real. There are several Pirates that hit LH pitching well. That list includes (in order of preference): Josh Harrison, Adam Frazier, Jordy Mercer and Gregory Polanco. You could also get away with a Pirates stack in tournaments as they do have a healthy projected run total.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.348 0.301 0.000 15.6% 5.4% 12.5% 59.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.369 0.292 0.183 32.8% 4.5% 15.3% 37.6% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.269 0.302 0.188 25.5% 9.0% 19.2% 56.4% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.400 0.373 0.180 44.8% 14.6% 25.0% 59.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.353 0.380 0.045 42.5% 13.6% 14.6% 56.9% C $3,000 C $3,100 C $6,000
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.368 0.371 0.253 37.3% 13.2% 17.6% 38.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
7 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.309 0.295 0.171 28.2% 8.6% 27.2% 48.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.314 0.331 0.156 27.9% 13.3% 14.4% 45.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,800
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.068 0.086 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 57.1% 50.0% P $8,100 P $6,500 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Josh Harrison and Adam Frazier

Secondary Plays – Jordy Mercer and Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

LA Angels at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

LA Angels Houston
laangelsmlb Jesse Chavez houstonmlb David Paulino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-175 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.337 30.2% 8.6% 20.0% 43.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.422 0.409 29.0% 7.3% 17.1% 35.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.330 0.338 36.6% 5.1% 20.5% 44.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.302 30.0% 6.5% 22.6% 25.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Chavez
jesse-chavez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.59 4.43 22.3% 6.4% 42.9% 31.2% 16.1%
2017 12 4.45 4.56 18.3% 6.8% 45.2% 36.5% 15.5%

Jesse Chavez is sporting a 4.56 ERA, 18.3% K rate and 6.8% BB rate on the season. He generates a decent amount of ground balls at 45% but when he doesn’t, the ball seems to leave the yard. He owns a .317 wOBA against LH hitters and .353 against RH hitters. He’s allowed 15 home runs in 71 innings of work this year. If considering Chavez, his hard contact numbers are concerning at 33.7% to LH and 38.7% to RH hitters. The Astros check in with a 18.2% K rate, .350 wOBA and 122 wRC+ against RH pitching. That’s the lowest K rate in the league and second-highest wOBA behind only the Yankees.

Quick Breakdown: There are situations where Chavez can be used in DFS but today isn’t one of those. He’s slightly overpriced for a matchup with an Astros team that has the highest implied team total on the slate.

David Paulino
david-paulino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 6.29 5.14 6.9% 10.3% 43.5% 26.1% 21.7%
2017 2 3.48 4.66 27.9% 4.7% 21.4% 32.1% 10.7%

David Paulino has only made two starts for the Astros this season and one last year. He has a 4.66 ERA this year along with a 27.9% K rate and 4.7% BB rate. While those numbers sound great, they are only two games. Paulino had eight Ks in four innings against the Royals and four Ks against the Twins in 5.2 innings. In his MLB career, he owns a .422 wOBA vs. LH hitters and .278 wOBA vs. RH hitters. While Paulino generated a decent amount of ground balls in the minors, that hasn’t been the case in the big league. He has a 38.7% fly ball rate to LH and 60% to RH hitters. The Angels check in with a 19.2% K rate, .303 wOBA and 93 wRC+ against RH pitching. They don’t have a lot of firepower but they certainly make contact often.

Quick Breakdown: This is also a pretty easy situation to avoid as Paulino has a slightly inflated price based on his K rate. A matchup with the Angles somewhat nullifies his K upside.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

As I said above, in his MLB career, Paulino owns a .422 wOBA vs. LH hitters and .278 wOBA vs. RH hitters. While Paulino generated a decent amount of ground balls in the minors, that hasn’t been the case in the big league. He has a 38.7% fly ball rate to LH and 60% to RH hitters. Kole Calhoun, Cameron Maybin and Albert Pujols all hit RH pitching well. They are the top options here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.343 0.304 0.112 23.4% 11.6% 17.3% 61.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.325 0.338 0.151 34.1% 9.9% 18.6% 38.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.320 0.359 0.170 36.0% 7.7% 13.2% 44.2% 1B $2,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.308 0.322 0.091 27.2% 6.6% 11.8% 58.7% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.330 0.325 0.193 36.7% 13.8% 24.2% 38.2% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,700
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.311 0.315 0.101 28.2% 6.0% 8.6% 53.9% SS $3,300 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.283 0.298 0.140 28.1% 9.5% 21.5% 45.7% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Eric Young SWITCH 0.379 0.307 0.222 21.7% 3.3% 13.3% 54.5% OF $3,100 OF $2,600 CF $5,100
9 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.279 0.284 0.137 31.5% 9.8% 30.2% 38.6% 2B $2,500 2B $3,300 2B $6,600

Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin and Albert Pujols

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Houston

The Astros have the highest implied team total on the early slate. Jesse Chavez owns a .317 wOBA against LH hitters and .353 against RH hitters. He’s allowed 15 home runs in 71 innings of work this year. His hard contact numbers come in at 33.7% to LH and 38.7% to RH hitters. We can use Astros from either side of the plate. That includes Josh Reddick, George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. You could even get away with the players lower in the order like Brian McCann.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.358 0.350 0.172 31.2% 9.4% 11.5% 37.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.394 0.371 0.194 31.6% 7.7% 10.0% 44.3% 2B $3,800 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
3 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.371 0.366 0.202 37.1% 10.5% 21.6% 49.2% SS $4,200 SS $4,800 SS $9,300
4 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.337 0.309 0.208 32.2% 5.9% 18.2% 46.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Brian McCann LEFT 0.332 0.352 0.174 37.3% 11.1% 18.1% 35.2% C $3,400 C $4,200 C $8,000
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.333 0.303 0.182 33.9% 6.2% 20.4% 46.4% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,900 1B $9,600
7 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.311 0.316 0.173 31.9% 6.7% 21.7% 35.3% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.331 0.280 0.113 19.8% 7.0% 9.8% 57.9% OF $2,500 OF $2,700 LF $5,200
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.276 0.256 0.149 23.9% 4.6% 28.8% 46.7% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 CF $5,600

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa

Secondary Plays – Brian McCann

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Philadelphia St. Louis
philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola stlouismlb Adam Wainwright
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-142 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.303 28.7% 9.2% 21.6% 53.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.340 33.1% 8.7% 18.5% 43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.275 28.0% 3.6% 26.4% 54.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.313 28.6% 6.4% 19.6% 46.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 7 4.02 4.28 21.1% 7.2% 51.3% 27.1% 23.7%

Aaron Nola owns a 4.28 ERA this season. He also has a 21.1% K rate, 7.2% BB rate and 51.3% ground ball rate. He’ll take on a Cardinals lineup that owns a 20.8% K rate, .317 wOBA and 95 wRC+ against RH pitching. Nola has mainly struggled against LH hitting with a .317 wOBA compared to .284 against RH hitting.

Quick Breakdown: Whether you choose to fire up Nola today depends on what site you are playing. On FanDuel he’s priced towards the top of the middle tier. He’s unlikely to match the top options so he’s easy to avoid there. On DraftKings and FantasyDraft, he’s priced more reasonable with the low end SP2 options. In general, I side more with the Cardinals hitters than Nola but you can make a case for him for sure.

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.31 4.62 19.0% 7.0% 43.8% 31.2% 19.1%
2017 12 4.46 4.82 19.2% 8.9% 49.0% 28.9% 21.2%

In his last start against the Reds, Adam Wainwright took a beating allowing nine runs in three innings of work. His ERA is now up to 4.82 on the year. He’s sporting a 19.2% K rate and 8.9% BB rate on the year. Things will hopefully go smoother against a Phillies team that owns a 23.1% K rate, .304 wOBA and 106 wRC+ against RH pitching. Wainwright has been somewhat attackable this season though with a .349 wOBA vs. LH and .334 wOBA vs. RH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Wainwright is one of the tougher pitchers to handicap today. He should go somewhat low-owned because of his outing against the Reds. That was simply a bad matchup though. The Phillies on the other hand are a great matchup. Wainwright is my preferred SP2 option on DK if I have the salary available. I think you can even make the case for him on FanDuel where he’s reasonable priced at $8,800.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

As I mentioned above, Wainwright has been somewhat attackable this season with a .349 wOBA vs. LH and .334 wOBA vs. RH hitters. I probably won’t play any Phillies in cash games but you might be able to get away with Odubel Herrera in tournaments. He’s bed red hot in June and owns a .337 wOBA vs RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.332 0.308 0.109 24.9% 10.7% 19.2% 52.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.337 0.312 0.159 29.2% 8.4% 20.2% 43.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
3 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.312 0.329 0.140 35.3% 7.1% 18.5% 60.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.211 37.7% 5.3% 22.9% 42.0% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.313 0.300 0.137 33.0% 9.4% 30.6% 48.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.292 0.321 0.150 29.5% 6.5% 16.2% 44.7% 3B $2,900 3B $2,600 3B $5,100
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.365 0.349 0.224 35.9% 12.1% 28.8% 53.8% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,600
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.307 0.275 0.177 28.0% 5.5% 21.5% 40.2% SS $2,400 SS $2,600 SS $5,200
9 0.878 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $7,000 P $7,900 P $8,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

St. Louis

Even though I think Aaron Nola is in play as an SP2, there aren’t a lot of great hitting situations on this slate. A couple of Cardinals bats are in great spots. Nola has mainly struggled against LH hitting with a .317 wOBA compared to .284 against RH hitting. Matt Carpeneter, Jedd Gyorko and Dexter Fowler all hit RH pitching well. The Cardinals mini-stack has let us down often lately but I think you could get away with it in tournaments today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.378 0.408 0.253 45.9% 15.5% 19.7% 28.1% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.353 0.344 0.183 30.6% 13.8% 24.9% 36.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.336 0.351 0.163 33.2% 8.2% 21.0% 46.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.360 0.341 0.269 35.6% 7.4% 24.1% 42.7% 3B $3,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.346 0.348 0.204 45.3% 10.8% 32.0% 50.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
6 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.356 0.310 0.206 29.8% 6.7% 12.9% 44.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.310 0.318 0.133 24.6% 10.2% 13.2% 47.5% 2B $3,000 2B $3,100 2B $6,000
8 Eric Fryer RIGHT 0.286 0.260 0.070 17.8% 9.1% 20.3% 48.0% C $2,100 C $2,300 C $4,400
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.348 0.302 0.305 30.6% 3.0% 23.9% 39.5% P $8,800 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler and Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Colorado at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Colorado Chicago Cubs
coloradomlb Antonio Senzatela cubsmlb Jake Arrieta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-180
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.341 31.7% 9.5% 14.6% 49.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.326 30.2% 12.8% 24.7% 48.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.316 25.7% 4.3% 17.9% 43.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.265 24.8% 5.5% 24.3% 51.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Antonio Senzatela
antonio-senzatela-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.64 3.56 16.1% 7.1% 46.8% 28.9% 13.3%

On the big sites, the final game of the early slate is the Rockies at Cubs. Antonio Senzatela owns a 3.56 ERA on the season along with a 16.1% K rate and 7.1% BB rate. With any Rockies pitcher, we need to look at home/away splits. Senzatela has oddly been better at Coors Field with a 3.18 ERA compared to 4.18 on the road. Senzatela is mainly a ground ball pitcher. Including his numbers at Coors he owns a .317 wOBA vs. LH and .285 vs. RH hitters. The Cubs own a 22% K rate, .306 wOBA and 87 wRC+ against RH pitching. The Cubs managed only five hits in yesterday’s “wind fest” at Wrigley Field. The wind appears to be blowing out at round 16MPH today but that’s not enough for me to upgrade the offenses here.

Quick Breakdown: Senzatela realistically doesn’t have the strikeout upside to justify the risk here. The Cubs offense has not been as good this year but they could wake up at any time.

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 12 3.58 4.46 26.1% 6.9% 43.8% 32.3% 20.3%

Jake Arrieta hasn’t quite been himself this season with a 43.8% ground ball rate which is down from 52.6% last year. Arrieta’s other numbers for the most part are in line with his recent averages. He owns a 26.1% K rate and 6.9% BB rate. The biggest change has been Arrieta’s ERA which has ballooned to 4.46. The Rockies are a pretty average matchup for RH pitching with a 22.2% K rate, .327 wOBA and 83 wRC+. If looking to attack Arrieta, the way to do it this season has been with LH hitters as he owns a .372 wOBA vs. LH compared to .293 vs. RH.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta is also a site-dependent option. FanDuel is not offering us any kind of discount. With Arrieta being $400 more than Carrasco, they’ve made our decision easy. On DraftKings, where there is a lack of decent mid-tier pitching I think you can use Arrieta as a tournament pivot off Adam Wainwright for just $6000 more.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies scored nine runs yesterday against Jeff Hoffman and company. They’ll have a much tougher task today against Jake Arrieta. Even in a season where he’s struggling, Arrieta has a .372 wOBA vs. LH compared to .293 vs. RH. Ideally, we would target Arrieta with LH hitters. Charlie Blackmon is the best option there as he owns a .413 wOBA vs. RH pitching. You could also fire up Nolan Arenado or Mark Reynolds but we aren’t really getting any kind of discount here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.413 0.371 0.284 38.7% 7.2% 18.3% 31.5% OF $4,700 OF $5,500 CF $10,800
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.358 0.369 0.113 31.8% 9.2% 12.6% 53.4% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.375 0.345 0.268 37.3% 8.3% 14.7% 35.7% 3B $4,000 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.394 0.332 0.238 30.8% 9.3% 25.3% 39.7% 1B $3,800 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
5 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.309 0.305 0.167 35.9% 2.8% 18.0% 51.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.317 0.297 0.149 30.9% 6.0% 25.5% 56.6% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,900 LF $7,600
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.342 0.323 0.245 36.6% 8.6% 31.6% 29.8% SS $3,500 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.324 0.291 0.124 21.4% 11.5% 20.5% 43.8% C $2,700 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Antonio Senzatela RIGHT 0.228 0.153 0.059 18.2% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $7,000 P $6,100 P $12,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs

As I mentioned above, the Cubs managed just five hits yesterday in an embarrassing effort. They’ll be extremely under-owned today. Antonio Senzatela owns a .317 wOBA vs. LH and .285 vs. RH hitters. Ian Happ, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant all hit RH pitching well. A low-owned Cubs stack is certainly in play in large tournaments as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.370 0.355 0.311 33.3% 12.7% 31.0% 46.2% 2B $3,100 2B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.352 0.241 36.9% 9.9% 22.3% 30.9% 3B $4,100 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.387 0.380 0.249 36.7% 12.4% 15.5% 37.0% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.351 0.369 0.176 33.5% 15.6% 11.7% 46.6% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
5 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.296 0.314 0.115 27.1% 8.3% 13.4% 46.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.302 0.270 0.161 28.6% 1.6% 25.7% 45.5% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.317 0.308 0.165 32.2% 13.7% 21.6% 45.8% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.234 0.250 0.143 31.6% 3.0% 39.4% 44.4% P $10,200 P $8,700 P $16,800
9 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.298 0.354 0.222 36.5% 12.0% 29.5% 42.7% OF $2,500 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400

Elite Plays – Ian Happ and Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Texas at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Texas Washington
texasmlb Austin Bibens-Dirkx washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-250 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.390 33.3% 10.3% 6.9% 29.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.293 30.1% 9.0% 25.2% 33.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.348 39.4% 6.5% 19.6% 27.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.202 0.219 28.7% 3.2% 40.1% 34.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Austin Bibens-Dirkx
austin-bibens-dirkx-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 5.15 4.08 14.7% 8.0% 28.1% 36.8% 17.5%

Austin Bibens-Dirk will make his second start of the season. He had been working out of the bullpen prior to injuries mounting for the Rangers. He has a 4.08 ERA, 14.7% K rate and 8% BB rate. The Nationals are not the b est offense to target with RH pitching. They own a 19.5% K rate, .313 wOBA and 111 wRC+. Bibens-Dirkx owns a .313 wOBA vs. LH and .292 vs. RH hitters. He also generates very few ground balls at 28.1%.

Quick Breakdown: Even as one of the lowest priced pitchers on every site, Austin Bibens-Dirkx is not in play in this matchup. He’s just a warm body holding down a rotation spot until reinforcements arrive.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,200 Salary: $13,000 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 12 2.70 2.35 35.0% 6.1% 35.3% 27.7% 20.7%

Max Scherzer is the most expensive option on the late slate. He has a 2.35 ERA, 35% K rate and 6.1% BB rate on the season. The Rangers own a 22.9% K rate, .322 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against RH pitching. Scherzer has been elite this season with a .296 wOBA vs. LH hitters and .188 wOBA vs. RH hitters. There’s really nothing that Scherzer doesn’t do well. The only argument against Scherzer is that you might be able to get similar upside from Robbie Ray for quite a bit cheaper.

Quick Breakdown: If you can afford him, Scherzer is the top option for cash games. There is a viable pivot in Robbie Ray though who we will get to in a minute.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers can easily be avoided against Max Scherzer. He owns a .296 wOBA vs. LH hitters and .188 wOBA vs. RH hitters this season. It’s possible that someone could run into a home run here but it’s not probably that you can predict that person with a high degree of confidence.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.324 0.375 0.141 40.9% 12.9% 21.8% 48.5% OF $3,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.341 0.321 0.141 27.4% 7.7% 13.5% 46.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.337 0.190 30.5% 7.9% 18.6% 44.2% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.207 34.0% 6.6% 10.6% 40.0% 3B $3,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.324 0.303 0.289 41.4% 12.5% 41.1% 24.1% 1B $3,700 3B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
6 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.331 0.329 0.250 37.2% 7.5% 24.9% 40.5% C $2,900 C $2,800 C $5,400
7 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.325 0.298 0.234 34.2% 3.2% 21.9% 39.7% 2B $3,300 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
8 Jared Hoying LEFT 0.260 0.251 0.071 29.4% 6.5% 19.6% 42.6% OF $2,100 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.298 0.273 0.137 31.6% 9.4% 34.3% 51.7% OF $2,400 1B/OF $2,400 IF/OF $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Washington

The Nationals are certainly in play against Bibens-Dirkx. His .313 wOBA vs. LH and .292 vs. RH hitters looks mildly impressive but his fly ball tendencies are going to catch up to him eventually. Bibens-Dirkx has a 37.5% fly ball rate to LH hitters and 54.5% to RH hitters. He’s allowing hard contact at 33.3% vs. LH and 39.4% vs. RH hitters. Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are the tops plays here based on their ability to hit RH pitching. Brian Goodwin is also a solid punt play if he’s batting at the top of the order again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.385 0.333 0.231 31.4% 4.6% 18.3% 45.6% SS $4,400 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.285 0.237 0.139 29.3% 4.8% 26.2% 44.6% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 RF $5,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.394 0.244 35.1% 18.7% 16.0% 40.0% OF $4,600 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.328 0.335 0.192 35.5% 5.7% 23.1% 45.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,200 1B $10,200
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.413 0.398 0.248 38.2% 6.5% 9.0% 35.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.344 0.346 0.192 34.8% 9.5% 17.7% 37.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.308 0.320 0.164 33.1% 6.7% 18.1% 36.6% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.286 0.273 0.161 32.0% 5.7% 31.4% 42.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.179 0.160 0.012 22.7% 3.0% 31.0% 75.5% P $12,200 P $13,000 P $25,200

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.