MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-08 02:17:51

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Tampa Bay
			Hector Santiago					Blake Snell
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -120					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.280	5	19.2%	8.4%	SP vs. Left	0.339	0	20.0%	17.1%
SP vs. Right	0.332	41	20.9%	9.9%	SP vs. Right	0.317	1	15.3%	10.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hector Santiago
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		24.4	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		47.5	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	6	91.8	5.31	4.85	18.9%	12.9%	8.2%	36.0%	47.7%	39.1%
2016	17	94.2	4.81	4.93	19.7%	10.3%	9.5%	39.2%	46.0%	35.5%
2015	32	98.8	4.50	3.59	20.9%	9.2%	8.5%	29.9%	53.6%	33.6%

Santiago is having a down season for the Angels. His velocity hasn’t changed much, but his strikeout rate is down and his hard hit contact rate is up. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allows a few too many home runs. To make matters worse, he draws a difficult matchup today against the Rays, who are ranked first in team wOBA and second in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. As an underdog on the road, Santiago is an easy fade.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Blake Snell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		23.2	FPPG:		10.7
					Pitcher Rating:		59.3	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	4	100.0	5.94	4.35	13.9%	13.9%	5.8%	42.9%	32.9%	27.4%
2016	5	98.0	5.43	3.86	16.7%	12.5%	5.9%	40.2%	36.6%	29.4%

Snell is making his sixth career major league start. He has shown terrific strikeout upside in the minors, but that has yet to carry over to the big leagues. He is eventually expected to become a top of the rotation type of starter, but he remains a risky fantasy option at the moment. The Angels have made it tough on the Rays’ starters in this series and could do more of the same today. On the season, Los Angeles has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels come into the game with the tenth highest on the board. They have played well offensively in this series and draw a decent matchup against Blake Snell, who is still unproven at the major league level. The sample size is obviously small, but Snell has allowed a .319+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. As usual, Mike Trout is an elite play, while the rest of the Angels are better secondary plays.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.325 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.157 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 15.9% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.40 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (10 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.364	0.126	0.402	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.316	0.164	0.301	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,600
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.414	0.243	0.542	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.262	0.439	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,000
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.291	0.132	0.450	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300
6	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.278	0.065	0.270	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,100
7	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.337	0.273	0.185	3B	$2,400	3B/OF	$3,700
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.617	0.647	0.356	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
9	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.260	0.057	0.349	SS	$2,800	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.356	0.219	0.366	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

The Rays currently have the highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching in baseball. They come into today’s game with the eighth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Hector Santiago, who has really struggled against right-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, Santiago has allowed a .332 wOBA and 41 home runs to batters from that side of the plate.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.204 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.6% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (8 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.424	0.310	0.322	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,700
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.255	0.066	0.359	SS	$3,800	SS	$3,400
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.389	0.219	0.287	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,500
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.255	0.072	0.295	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,200
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.396	0.211	0.257	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700
6	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.325	0.190	0.300	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.264	0.067	0.353	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
8	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.310	0.065	0.382	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.278	0.178	0.222	C	$2,100	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.153	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brandon Guyer

Secondary Plays – Steven Souza

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Stats	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Pittsburgh		St. Louis
	Tyler Glasnow				Adam Wainwright
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	STL -154				8.0
SP vs. Left		SP vs. Left	0.311	2	18.6%	5.5%
SP vs. Right		SP vs. Right	0.306	6	17.0%	6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	K%	SS%	GB%	HH%
Tyler Glasnow
	FanDuel		DraftKings
	Salary:	$4,600	Salary:	$7,000
	FPPG:	0.0	FPPG:	0.0
	Pitcher Rating:	38.8	Pitcher Rank:	19

Glasnow will be making his major league debut today against the Cardinals. He is a young right-handed pitcher that was a fifth round draft pick in 2011. He has some terrific numbers in the minors this season. In 17 Triple-A starts, he posted a 1.78 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29.8%. If he pitches well, he could stick around for a while. I’m certainly interested to see what he can bring to the table, but will be giving him a start or two before targeting him in DFS. He opens his career with a tough matchup against the Cardinals on the road.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Wainwright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$7,000
					FPPG:		25.7	FPPG:		12.2
					Pitcher Rating:		65.8	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	93.6	3.66	3.13	24.8%	8.0%	10.9%	49.4%	25.3%	30.1%
2016	17	93.7	4.39	4.70	17.6%	6.4%	8.1%	44.4%	30.0%	30.8%
2015	4	95.8	3.45	1.61	18.0%	3.6%	7.8%	51.2%	22.6%	21.8%

Wainwright has been in good form over the last month of play, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8%. His swinging strike rate is way up during that stretch, which is a promising sign moving forward. While the Pirates are a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching, Wainwright will have the platoon advantage in this matchup. The fact that he is pitching at home is just icing on the cake. He is my favorite pitcher in the early-only slate and my seventh favorite pitcher in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are ranked 11th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, but they come into today’s game with the fifth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Adam Wainwright, who is starting to flash some form. Even with his struggles over the last two seasons, he has still held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.323 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.6% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.64 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.69 (18 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.351	0.153	0.363	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.347	0.168	0.377	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.356	0.192	0.254	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.358	0.161	0.282	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,000
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.364	0.201	0.266	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,100
6	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.299	0.103	0.225	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,500
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.270	0.069	0.396	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,400
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.056	0.016	0.094	C	$2,200	C	$2,400
9	Tyler Glasnow	RIGHT				P	$4,600	P	$7,000
	Team Averages	—	0.300	0.133	0.282	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, ranking third in team wOBA and second in team ISO. They draw a boom or bust type of matchup against the rookie Tyler Glasnow, who is making his major league debut. Glasnow has shown nice strikeout upside in the minors, but could be a little overwhelmed in his first major league start. Matt Carpenter suffered an oblique strain last night and is expected to miss an extended amount of time.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.345 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.196 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.21 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.31 (11 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.324	0.131	0.340	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,100
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.402	0.238	0.525	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,900
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.348	0.169	0.297	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,000
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.343	0.170	0.328	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600
5	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.327	0.125	0.245	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.296	0.089	0.202	C	$2,400	C	$2,800
7	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.320	0.186	0.161	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,400
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.353	0.256		OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.204	0.227	0.000	P	$8,700	P	$7,000
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.177	0.262	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kolten Wong, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Adams

Stackability – GPP

Detroit at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Toronto
			Justin Verlander					Drew Hutchison
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -108					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.274	13	23.3%	6.6%	SP vs. Left	0.328	12	18.0%	7.5%
SP vs. Right	0.299	16	22.9%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.392	12	20.9%	6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		36.6	FPPG:		19.8
					Pitcher Rating:		65.0	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	6	102.0	3.71	4.12	23.8%	4.4%	10.6%	37.3%	48.2%	25.9%
2016	17	106.1	3.71	4.11	25.5%	6.4%	11.4%	35.2%	46.6%	27.8%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander is having a nice bounce-back season for the Tigers. In 17 starts, he has a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. Tonight he draws a tough matchup against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. His high strikeout rate will help, but typically pitchers need to induce a high ground ball rate to succeed in this ballpark. Verlander is an extreme fly-ball pitcher and that could hurt him in this home run-friendly park. With the over/under for the game set at 9.5 runs, both of these pitchers are easy fades.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Hutchison
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		17.5	FPPG:		7.5
					Pitcher Rating:		41.9	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	0	0.0	7.35	18.00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16.7%	50.0%	66.7%
2016	1	95.0	5.07	5.40	17.9%	10.7%	6.9%	35.0%	45.0%	40.0%
2015	28	89.7	4.09	5.57	19.4%	6.6%	9.7%	39.6%	36.4%	31.0%

Hutchison is making his second start of the season, after spending most of his year in the minors. He will be drawing the spot start for Marco Estrada, who is dealing with a back injury. Hutchison is a pitcher with plenty of major league experience. He started 28 games a year ago, posting a 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Tigers, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Hutchison has pitched well at home throughout his career, but there are better pitching options in this slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers see a small ballpark boost tonight playing in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. They come into the game with the seventh highest team total on the board. In his last 29 starts, Drew Hutchison has allowed a .328 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .392 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Hutchison has also given up 24 home runs during that stretch.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.332 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.70 (7 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.336	0.151	0.316	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,200
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.307	0.081	0.372	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.412	0.221	0.345	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.304	0.153	0.351	C	$3,900	1B	$4,000
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.317	0.170	0.398	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,600
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.332	0.193	0.223	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800
7	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.359	0.273	0.500	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.249	0.075	0.284	C	$2,100	C	$2,200
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.289	0.059	0.343	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.153	0.348	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Steven Moya

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays were a bit of a letdown last night against Ian Kennedy, but draw a similar matchup tonight at home. Justin Verlander is a better pitcher overall, but he has a high strikeout rate and a high fly-ball rate, similar to Kennedy. Verlander is also a reverse-splits pitcher, which bodes well for this right-handed heavy lineup. While I expect the Jays to score some runs here, I see their hitters as better GPP plays than cash game options.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.0% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.89 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.80 (6 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.302	0.096	0.314	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.395	0.268	0.505	3B	$4,600	3B	$5,500
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.386	0.278	0.440	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,800
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.350	0.200	0.268	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.328	0.182	0.457	SS	$2,600	SS	$4,200
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.176	0.323	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.306	0.136	0.251	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900
8	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.331	0.227	0.201	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,200
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.366	0.197	0.332	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700
	Team Averages	—	0.341	0.196	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Yankees					Cleveland
			Ivan Nova					Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -160					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.375	14	10.5%	7.6%	SP vs. Left	0.301	15	22.8%	10.6%
SP vs. Right	0.320	12	20.8%	6.1%	SP vs. Right	0.302	15	22.5%	9.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$4,600
					FPPG:		19.0	FPPG:		8.8
					Pitcher Rating:		39.1	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	5	83.2	4.43	6.31	18.3%	7.5%	7.7%	48.8%	33.7%	37.5%
2016	11	102.5	3.96	5.06	16.9%	5.2%	8.9%	55.5%	26.7%	33.7%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Nova has a low strikeout rate, which really caps his upside in DFS. It also magnifies his mistakes, which isn’t good for a pitcher that makes quite a few of them. On the season, Nova has a 5.06 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.9%. He is an easy fade tonight against the Indians, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		68.3	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	125.2	3.55	1.48	24.5%	7.4%	9.3%	55.0%	30.6%	29.7%
2016	12	128.9	4.00	3.02	22.3%	8.4%	9.5%	50.6%	32.1%	33.0%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

Bauer comes into tonight’s game in great form, posting a 3.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.5% over the last month of play. He induces a high ground ball rate and he generally pitches well at home. His matchup against the Yankees is a decent one, although they do have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. I currently have him ranked as the sixth best pitcher overall, which puts him in play. However, he is far from a must play.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees had one of the best matchups on the schedule last night and failed to score a single run against Miguel Gonzalez and the White Sox. Their offense has struggled all season and that could continue tonight against Trevor Bauer. In the last two seasons, Bauer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (18 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.6% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.11 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.90 (14 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.313	0.105	0.300	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.329	0.139	0.257	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,300
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.359	0.215	0.447	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.325	0.200	0.192	3B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,100
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.331	0.210	0.416	C	$3,000	C	$3,700
6	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.357	0.286	0.394	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,200
7	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.291	0.130	0.313	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,800
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.305	0.115	0.317	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,900
9	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.310	0.139	0.376	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.171	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

The Indians come into tonight’s game with the ninth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Ivan Nova, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .375 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .320 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Nova has also given up 26 home runs in his last 28 starts.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.5% (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (9 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.349	0.229	0.440	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,100
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.375	0.179	0.388	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,900
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.346	0.156	0.257	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,700
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.297	0.180	0.338	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,400
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.314	0.137	0.363	3B	$3,000	3B/OF	$4,600
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.314	0.147	0.446	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,500
7	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.327	0.169	0.392	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,000
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.259	0.172	0.212	C	$2,300	C	$3,300
9	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.395	0.244	0.401	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.179	0.360	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					NY Mets
			Lucas Giolito					Bartolo Colon
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -113					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.174	0	11.1%	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.315	19	15.7%	3.9%
SP vs. Right	0.138	0	0.0%	20.0%	SP vs. Right	0.303	16	17.6%	2.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Lucas Giolito
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		15.0	FPPG:		9.2
					Pitcher Rating:		62.0	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	1	45.0	6.77	0.00	7.1%	14.3%	4.4%	54.5%	36.4%	27.3%
2016	1	45.0	6.77	0.00	7.1%	14.3%	4.4%	54.5%	36.4%	27.3%

With Joe Ross landing on the DL, Giolito will be making his second career major league start tonight. He has good numbers in the minor leagues and he draws a decent matchup against the Mets, who are still missing some key pieces offensively. At his price point, he is worth a look in tournaments, as we have seen the type of upside that he has had in the minors this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Bartolo Colon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		27.4	FPPG:		14.1
					Pitcher Rating:		56.8	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	75.6	4.08	1.93	15.9%	3.7%	4.5%	50.0%	26.7%	34.9%
2016	16	86.2	4.36	2.87	16.5%	4.5%	5.4%	42.4%	32.2%	36.9%
2015	31	87.3	4.02	4.16	16.7%	2.9%	6.4%	42.3%	36.9%	29.0%

Colon just continues to pitch well. He doesn’t have a big arsenal of pitches, but he has a decent fastball and he routinely hits his spots. We can expect a little regression moving forward, but you can always give him a look as a value play when he is pitching at home. The only concern with Colon is his strikeout upside. On the season, he has only struck out 16.5% of the batters that he has faced, which means he can’t afford to make many mistakes.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals are ranked right around the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. Bartolo Colon may not have a high strikeout rate, but he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy (revenge game) are in play, but both are better GPP plays than cash game options.

Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.312 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.67 (19 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.300	0.072	0.267	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.283	0.125	0.363	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.442	0.308	0.389	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700
4	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.374	0.219	0.345	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,000
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.319	0.157	0.455	C	$3,000	C	$4,300
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.284	0.161	0.221	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,000
7	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.311	0.132	0.385	3B	$2,200	3B	$4,100
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.313	0.180	0.560	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,600
9	Lucas Giolito	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$8,100
	Team Averages	—	0.292	0.150	0.332	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets are small favorites tonight, but this game has one of the lowest over/unders on the schedule. New York currently has the seventh lowest run projection of the 22 teams in action. Their matchup against Lucas Giolito isn’t great, but he could be a little nervous in his second career major league start. The left-handed hitters in this lineup are decent GPP targets.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.85 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.83 (16 of 22)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.299	0.099	0.310	3B	$3,000	SS	$3,200
2	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.370	0.227	0.384	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200
3	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.330	0.172	0.305	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,500
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.379	0.265	0.405	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,900
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.318	0.169	0.280	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300
6	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.284	0.117	0.403	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,000
7	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.269	0.088	0.163	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900
8	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.321	0.157	0.358	C	$2,500	C	$2,900
9	Bartolo Colon	RIGHT	0.148	0.079	0.000	P	$7,200	P	$7,100
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.153	0.290	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 7th

LA Angels at Tampa Bay – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brandon Guyer

Secondary Plays – Steven Souza

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kolten Wong, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Adams

Stackability – GPP

Detroit at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Steven Moya

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker

Stackability – NONE

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