MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-16 02:10:50

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

LA Dodgers at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Cleveland
			Rich Hill							Josh Tomlin
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-117							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.270	23.9%	5.8%	17.5%	53.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.314	37.3%	2.1%	15.3%	46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.259	0.277	29.6%	10.4%	30.8%	40.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.359	0.345	32.4%	2.7%	16.8%	39.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rich Hill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	20	3.29	2.12	29.4%	7.5%	45.3%	28.3%	22.3%
	2017	7	5.22	3.77	23.3%	15.8%	39.2%	27.9%	26.6%

I’m looking forward to getting back on track after a strange set of games on Wednesday. We have three early games on the schedule and seven late games, which means there are two big slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Hill still has an above-average strikeout rate, but he has really struggled with his command this season (16% walk rate). It has hurt his ability to pitch deep into games and he has allowed more runs because of it. He draws a difficult matchup against the Indians, who draw a lot of walks and strikeout at a low rate. In a big slate, he would be an easy fade, but he actually might be the path of least resistance here in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Hill has some red flags, but not as many as the other five pitchers in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	12	4.26	5.73	15.8%	1.4%	41.2%	36.2%	13.5%

Tomlin is not a pitcher that I target in DFS. While he does have excellent command, it’s not always a good thing when you throw a 90 MPH fastball right down the heart of the plate. On the season, Tomlin owns a 5.73 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He has a below-average ground ball rate and he gives up a lot of soft and medium contact. He is an easy fade against a Dodgers’ lineup that has seven projected starters with at least a 35% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Tomlin can be avoided in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

You can make a strong case to play batters from all six of the offenses in the early slate. The Dodgers get to utilize the DH in this series and better yet, get to face Josh Tomlin. In addition to a low strikeout rate, Tomlin has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to lefties and a .345 xwOBA to righties. Every hitter in this lineup deserves consideration, so it really just comes down to batting order.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.339	0.332	0.161	38.6%	8.8%	17.2%	46.3%	2B	$2,500	1B/2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.392	0.402	0.214	41.5%	10.6%	17.6%	45.1%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,900	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.393	0.377	0.229	36.5%	6.0%	16.9%	33.6%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.367	0.313	0.341	42.5%	10.8%	31.7%	35.1%	OF	$3,800	1B/OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.352	0.341	0.244	38.4%	10.8%	26.6%	43.6%	C	$3,100	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.331	0.302	0.176	28.0%	11.0%	26.7%	54.3%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.314	0.325	0.153	35.1%	8.9%	24.7%	44.0%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.370	0.353	0.252	39.5%	12.9%	26.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.320	0.320	0.159	33.3%	7.8%	20.9%	49.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland

The Indians have the most difficult matchup in the early slate. While they could certainly score a few runs on Rich Hill, this isn’t a matchup that we should go out of our way to target. Over the last two seasons, Hill has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. With every other offense in favorable matchups, I will have very little exposure to the Indians.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.386	0.287	0.132	22.2%	5.0%	5.0%	57.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,600	SS	$4,800
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.336	0.336	0.162	33.5%	6.9%	14.2%	45.3%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.288	0.281	0.085	32.8%	5.7%	18.2%	47.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.300	0.325	0.125	30.9%	10.7%	9.7%	53.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.381	0.383	0.229	41.2%	17.9%	22.2%	39.7%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.340	0.343	0.153	31.6%	7.4%	13.7%	43.1%	3B	$3,100	2B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.296	0.327	0.118	40.9%	10.4%	20.8%	41.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.336	0.302	0.211	30.5%	7.4%	23.8%	42.0%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Erik Gonzalez	RIGHT	0.188	0.193	0.000	50.0%	7.1%	50.0%	100.0%			SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Minnesota
			Ariel Miranda							Jose Berrios
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-108							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.304	30.4%	8.3%	19.3%	48.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.343	29.6%	12.8%	20.2%	38.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.310	33.1%	8.9%	20.1%	30.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.371	0.331	29.7%	9.3%	20.4%	40.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ariel Miranda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	10	4.77	3.88	19.0%	7.8%	31.2%	37.1%	17.7%
	2017	13	4.70	3.67	20.7%	9.5%	36.9%	28.9%	19.9%

Miranda has been serviceable for the Mariners this season, but his SIERA is a full run higher than his ERA. He has a league-average strikeout rate, but is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that can struggle against right-handed power bats. The Twins have a few of them in their lineup in Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Robbie Grossman. If this game was being played in Seattle, it might be a different story.

Quick Breakdown: Miranda is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	14	5.36	8.02	17.4%	12.5%	38.0%	33.3%	18.2%
	2017	6	3.94	2.84	25.5%	8.5%	43.2%	22.1%	16.8%

Berrios is really the only other pitcher on my radar besides Rich Hill. The matchup against the Mariners is far from ideal, but he has shown great strikeout potential since being called up from the minors. In six starts this season, Berrios has a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. He has also done a nice job of limiting hard contact (23%). The walks will continue to be an issue moving forward, but his strikeout upside gives him more fantasy appeal than most starting pitchers in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: It’s a tough matchup against the Mariners, but Berrios is viable in the three-game early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners knocked Ervin Santana around last night, which was music to my ears. People love to give me a hard time when he pitches well since I suggest fading him every time he is on the mound. Today’s matchup against Jose Berrios isn’t great, but the Mariners do have a fairly high implied run total. We’ve seen Berrios get shelled a number of times last season, so I wouldn’t rule out a Mariners’ stack in tournaments. For cash games, the left-handed bats of Ben Gamel, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager are my favorite targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Gamel	LEFT	0.327	0.313	0.090	28.1%	11.1%	25.6%	32.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.381	0.350	0.207	37.5%	10.9%	18.4%	41.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.389	0.396	0.262	38.3%	8.3%	12.0%	45.1%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.377	0.383	0.240	35.4%	8.9%	22.6%	44.3%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.373	0.401	0.211	41.3%	11.4%	14.9%	33.7%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.323	0.318	0.144	30.8%	7.2%	23.9%	44.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.305	0.272	0.107	16.4%	8.2%	13.6%	51.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.311	0.301	0.221	35.8%	7.1%	37.3%	31.6%	C	$3,100	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Taylor Motter	RIGHT	0.267	0.302	0.163	31.7%	9.8%	22.4%	38.1%	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs. I slightly prefer the Twins’ offense over the Mariners’ offense because they are playing at home and we know they can mash left-handed pitching. Ariel Miranda has a high walk rate and has allowed a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Robbie Grossman all have a .360+ wOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.405	0.351	0.315	40.4%	10.7%	19.9%	33.6%	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.264	0.297	0.083	25.4%	8.2%	17.5%	57.9%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.362	0.345	0.273	43.2%	14.3%	33.3%	33.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.406	0.378	0.192	35.7%	15.5%	19.0%	43.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.243	0.242	0.104	27.6%	8.2%	23.9%	49.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.276	0.306	0.138	31.4%	6.1%	21.3%	40.7%	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Chris Gimenez	RIGHT	0.305	0.349	0.150	42.1%	11.4%	32.9%	35.1%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.308	0.288	0.161	29.1%	4.4%	18.4%	33.3%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.306	0.274	0.179	30.7%	11.0%	32.3%	32.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Chicago White Sox
			Chris Tillman							David Holmberg
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CWS-101							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.335	29.5%	11.9%	20.4%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.135	0.206	23.5%	0.0%	14.3%	58.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.339	32.5%	7.7%	16.7%	40.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.255	0.398	40.8%	11.9%	14.9%	44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20
	2016	30	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	41.2%	31.5%	18.3%
	2017	7	5.80	8.01	13.1%	11.8%	41.2%	29.8%	25.4%

Tillman has been dreadful in his first seven starts of the season. He currently owns a 5.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a walk rate of 12%. He isn’t giving up a lot of contact, but he will continue to give up runs in bunches with that high of a walk rate. The White Sox offense used to be one that we could pick on with a right-handed pitcher, but they have shown some signs of life recently. Vegas has obviously taken notice, as they have the highest implied run total in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Tillman is in bad form and he’s pitching on the road against an offense that has been heating up over the last few days.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
David Holmberg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		of 20

	2017	3	5.06	2.74	14.8%	9.1%	48.5%	36.4%	25.8%

Holmberg will be making his fourth start of the season today. He may have a low ERA, but his SIERA is sitting at 5.06 and he has an unimpressive strikeout rate of only 15%. This game has the highest over/under in the early slate and is expected to be another shootout. Both of these pitchers can be avoided for the likes of Rich Hill and/or Jose Berrios.

Quick Breakdown: Holmberg doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration, even in a home game against the Orioles.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles don’t hit left-handed pitching particularly well, but they draw a favorable matchup against David Holmberg. The sample size is obviously small (three starts), but he has allowed a .398 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. The Orioles’ stack came through last night and I don’t mind going right back to the well today. Manny Machado and Trey Mancini are both elite plays in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.338	0.301	0.151	29.5%	6.6%	19.2%	35.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.253	0.271	0.100	30.8%	6.4%	22.0%	38.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.375	0.397	0.218	41.5%	9.8%	15.4%	41.5%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.278	0.292	0.183	36.1%	6.4%	25.1%	42.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.379	0.410	0.294	40.3%	3.4%	26.1%	46.8%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,100	N/A	N/A
6	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.315	0.286	0.200	26.3%	5.6%	24.2%	49.4%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
7	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.363	0.376	0.213	53.0%	7.2%	24.0%	40.0%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.292	0.304	0.152	37.9%	7.4%	15.4%	48.3%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.209	0.290	0.091	26.0%	4.3%	22.9%	40.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, but with the White Sox being the slightest of favorites, they have the highest implied run total in the slate. They couldn’t ask for a better matchup, as Chris Tillman has allowed a .335+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. His numbers are trending in the wrong direction and we have seen the White Sox perform much better against right-handed pitching recently.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.301	0.279	0.150	21.7%	4.4%	24.6%	39.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.329	0.326	0.135	28.8%	7.8%	10.1%	45.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.336	0.342	0.161	32.8%	5.9%	17.3%	46.1%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.323	0.328	0.167	31.8%	5.7%	25.1%	52.7%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.323	0.320	0.224	31.5%	9.9%	23.1%	39.0%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.295	0.276	0.152	30.5%	2.9%	26.7%	50.6%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.278	0.304	0.025	15.2%	11.1%	12.2%	40.9%	C	$2,100	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.307	0.294	0.250	43.4%	4.5%	46.8%	28.3%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Willy Garcia	RIGHT	0.255	0.229	0.147	32.0%	2.6%	31.6%	37.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								Philadelphia
			Chris Sale							Nick Pivetta
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-200							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.257	0.242	24.8%	2.8%	30.7%	53.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.375	0.347	30.6%	16.1%	19.6%	38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.289	32.2%	5.2%	28.0%	38.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.428	0.410	38.9%	9.0%	20.5%	35.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$14,100	Salary:		$27,200
	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20
	2016	32	3.43	3.34	25.7%	5.0%	41.2%	31.7%	17.0%
	2017	13	2.53	2.97	35.3%	4.8%	39.0%	29.7%	14.6%

Sale has allowed at least three runs in each of his last four starts, yet he has still been productive from a fantasy standpoint. He’s typically the number one pitching option in any slate and tonight is no different, especially when you line him up next to the other pitchers taking the mound. Sale has a massive 35% strikeout rate and gets to face a mediocre Phillies’ offense in an National League ballpark. There is always some risk with taking a fly-ball pitcher in Citizens Bank Park, but Sale’s strikeout potential more than makes up for the ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is the number one pitching option in the slate and it’s not particularly close.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		20 of 20	Salary Rank:		20 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20

	2017	6	4.99	5.52	20.2%	11.9%	37.1%	35.6%	12.2%

Pivetta has shown some decent strikeout upside in the minors, but has struggled with his command at the major league level. He is still a wildcard at this point and a matchup against the Red Sox in a home run-friendly ballpark isn’t exactly ideal. There is more risk than potential reward here, especially with Chris Sale pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Pivetta in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Mookie Sox or the Red Betts draw a favorable matchup against a young pitcher in Nick Pivetta that has struggled with his command this season. While they do lost the DH in this series, this is a small ballpark that yields plenty of home runs. Pivetta has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate, but has allowed a massive .410 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. A Sox stack is awfully interesting, especially if you want to pivot off of Coors Field in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.380	0.334	0.205	34.2%	8.5%	10.6%	42.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,200	RF	$10,200
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.351	0.328	0.124	32.3%	7.9%	9.5%	50.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.345	0.295	0.142	29.8%	7.3%	16.9%	47.7%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,200
4	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.323	0.359	0.199	39.5%	8.9%	22.9%	39.4%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
5	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.353	0.332	0.199	37.2%	8.3%	15.6%	35.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,600
6	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.359	0.360	0.237	37.9%	11.4%	21.4%	45.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
7	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.297	0.225	0.043	25.8%	10.5%	29.5%	60.7%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,700
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.304	0.280	0.138	34.3%	6.3%	25.6%	43.4%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Chris Sale	LEFT	0.176	0.064	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	100.0%	P	$11,500	P	$14,100	P	$27,200

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies are actually a decent offense against left-handed pitching, but Chris Sale isn’t your ordinary southpaw. He is really the only elite pitcher taking the mound tonight, which means we have better matchups that we can exploit. If you absolutely have to play someone from the Phillies, Tommy Joseph and Daniel Nava have the best numbers against lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.298	0.287	0.099	25.5%	8.5%	24.1%	55.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.315	0.365	0.077	32.1%	12.8%	17.9%	62.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,600
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.340	0.335	0.220	33.3%	10.7%	18.4%	50.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.354	0.367	0.295	31.8%	9.0%	21.9%	38.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.331	0.347	0.208	36.7%	6.6%	15.3%	46.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
6	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.362	0.391	0.048	31.3%	22.2%	18.5%	62.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,400
7	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.413	0.322	0.278	35.1%	9.2%	26.1%	49.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,400	C	$4,800
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.236	0.257	0.115	24.9%	1.9%	17.7%	40.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.000	0.019	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$5,500	P	$4,500	P	$9,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Detroit
			Alex Cobb							Justin Verlander
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-135							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.369	0.365	36.9%	8.6%	15.7%	39.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.280	27.9%	8.9%	29.6%	30.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.313	35.6%	5.1%	17.1%	51.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.309	34.7%	6.3%	22.7%	36.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	13	4.64	4.29	16.8%	6.8%	43.9%	38.3%	12.9%

Cobb hasn’t been the same since undergoing Tommy John surgery. He once had an elite strikeout rate and not it is quite a ways under the major league average. He has shown some flashes here and there, but he doesn’t provide a ton of DFS appeal. He comes into tonight’s game as an underdog on the road against the Tigers in a game that features an over/under of 9.5 runs. There are better options in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cobb in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Justin Verlander
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20
	2016	34	3.42	3.04	28.1%	6.3%	33.7%	28.9%	19.7%
	2017	13	4.91	4.68	20.7%	11.1%	33.3%	38.2%	15.1%

Verlander should garner some attention tonight given his price form and nice strikeout matchup against the Rays. He has just been in such bad form this season. His strikeout rate is down to the major league average, he has an 11% walk rate, and his hard contact rate (38%) is considerably higher than his ground ball rate (33%). I know the Rays strikeout often against right-handed pitching, but they are also ranked fifth in team wOBA. I’m concerned about the form and will be fading Verlander at what should be high ownership, especially on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: A matchup at home against the Rays is enticing, but I will be avoiding Verlander tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Seeing as how I will be avoiding Justin Verlander, then that means I should obviously like the Rays, right? Right! Verlander has given up so much hard contact this season and we know the Rays hit right-handed pitching well. We also know they hit a lot of home runs, which is good, especially when facing a fly-ball pitcher with a high walk rate. For cash games, I won’t have a ton of exposure to this offense outside of Mallex Smith, but I will have at least one Rays’ stack mixed into my tournament lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.365	0.268	0.159	21.3%	10.3%	19.1%	59.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
2	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.356	0.322	0.277	33.1%	6.1%	22.0%	34.5%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.352	0.352	0.237	35.8%	6.2%	19.9%	35.4%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.338	0.364	0.235	39.0%	10.9%	23.0%	40.4%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.344	0.317	0.203	31.4%	10.0%	31.2%	41.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.315	0.310	0.197	37.7%	9.5%	30.0%	36.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
7	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.288	0.271	0.133	30.5%	9.6%	26.6%	49.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,600	SS	$4,800
8	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.239	0.269	0.134	31.3%	6.8%	31.9%	33.8%	C	$2,500	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Taylor Featherston	RIGHT	0.133	0.167	0.063	20.0%	0.0%	37.5%	40.0%			2B	$2,000	2B	$4,000

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers are another stack that I have a lot of interest in tonight. Alex Cobb is not producing as many ground ball outs this season and his hard contact rate is 38% as well. If we know anything about the Tigers, it’s that they hit the ball in the air and they hit the ball hard. That sounds like a recipe for a potential stack to me. They should get overlooked too with a game being played in Coors Field that will soak up a lot of ownership. For cash games, Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera are great values on DraftKings.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.324	0.165	34.8%	7.1%	16.1%	34.1%	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
2	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.386	0.402	0.245	49.0%	17.6%	34.2%	39.7%	C	$3,300	1B/C	$4,100	C	$8,000
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.384	0.455	0.234	41.7%	10.5%	16.8%	41.0%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.340	0.388	0.177	41.8%	8.8%	14.5%	37.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,600
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.382	0.401	0.248	42.1%	10.7%	26.2%	43.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,400	RF	$8,700
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.343	0.346	0.238	39.6%	8.7%	29.2%	38.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
7	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.349	0.387	0.191	40.1%	7.3%	25.2%	35.2%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.295	0.297	0.116	26.9%	7.4%	19.1%	45.6%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.273	0.257	0.074	18.0%	4.9%	12.7%	54.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 15th

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Stackability Rating System:

LA Dodgers at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ben Gamel, Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Trey Mancini

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard, Manny Machado, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Jackie Bradley Jr., Sandy Leon

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler (DK), Miguel Cabrera (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler (DK), Miguel Cabrera (DK), Alex Avila, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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