MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-28 18:09:50

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Miami
			Zack Greinke							Trevor Richards
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-140							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.298	0.340	41.2%	4.9%	23.8%	46.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.297	35.2%	11.2%	27.0%	32.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.329	43.5%	4.8%	27.6%	39.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.371	0.377	48.0%	9.8%	15.7%	43.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Greinke
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$10,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	3.48	3.20	26.8%	5.6%	46.8%	35.1%	19.2%
	2018	16	3.30	3.66	26.0%	4.9%	42.2%	42.5%	17.2%
	L14	2	3.32	2.19	25.0%	4.2%	45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

There are six early games on the schedule. FanDuel has all six included in their early slate, while DraftKings has left this one off of their early slate since it starts an hour before the rest. Greinke has given up a lot of hard contact this season, but has still managed to post a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 5%. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling, especially in a matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has a .304 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Greinke is an elite play in all formats. Unfortunately, he’s only available on FanDuel’s early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Richards
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		13 of 20	Salary Rank:

	2018	9	4.58	4.91	20.9%	10.5%	38.6%	42.6%	16.3%
	L14	2	4.10	6.75	23.8%	7.1%	28.6%	37.9%	17.2%

Richards will pop every now and then, but he’s a risky play in daily fantasy thanks to an 11% walk rate and a hard contact rate that is 4% higher than his ground ball rate. He checks into this game as a sizable underdog against the Diamondbacks, even though he is pitching at home. The good news is that Arizona strikes out at a high rate against right-handed pitching and that Richards is playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Since this game is only included in the FanDuel early slate, we don’t have the option to use Richards as an SP2 in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Richards in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have been far from consistent this season, but they have shown plenty of upside at times. Their matchup against Trevor Richards is appealing, but only for batters from one side of the plate. He has held lefties to a .297 xwOBA this season, while allowing a .377 xwOBA and a 48% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Given the fact that this is a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Paul Goldschmidt is the only hitter on my radar in this one. He is finally hitting the ball well, posting a .437 xwOBA over the last 15 days.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.339	0.341	0.110	37.8%	5.5%	15.0%	54.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.362	0.437	0.208	44.9%	13.3%	29.7%	40.6%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.381	0.338	0.193	44.7%	9.3%	24.0%	45.9%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	David Peralta	LEFT	0.376	0.402	0.262	51.3%	9.0%	18.9%	48.4%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.295	0.363	0.140	28.7%	6.7%	15.0%	52.3%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.293	0.277	0.156	34.9%	7.9%	22.5%	37.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.277	0.221	0.065	21.4%	10.5%	13.4%	42.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.232	0.217	0.016	28.6%	10.0%	30.0%	37.5%	C	$2,100	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Zack Greinke	RIGHT	0.314	0.271	0.130	33.3%	7.4%	25.9%	37.5%	P	$9,800	P	$10,600	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.319	0.319	0.142	36.2%	8.8%	21.6%	44.0%

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins have a few hitters in their lineup that fare well against right-handed pitching (J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, and Brian Anderson), but draw one of the worst matchups of the slate and are playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even though Zack Greinke gives up a lot of contact, he has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .340 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.349	0.344	0.181	37.8%	5.1%	22.1%	39.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.405	0.371	0.272	44.3%	6.9%	15.4%	42.9%	C	$3,300	C	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.405	0.346	0.262	42.5%	17.6%	23.9%	37.8%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
4	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.292	0.252	0.127	34.7%	5.1%	19.8%	50.5%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.351	0.370	0.096	36.9%	8.5%	20.7%	50.6%	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.323	0.331	0.171	38.5%	5.3%	26.3%	48.0%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.300	0.345	0.108	31.7%	4.7%	14.1%	56.1%	3B	$2,400	3B/SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.284	0.326	0.137	41.5%	4.1%	33.3%	50.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Trevor Richards	RIGHT	0.031	0.244	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.304	0.325	0.150	34.2%	6.4%	26.9%	52.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Detroit
			Sean Manaea							Michael Fulmer
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-103							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.279	22.6%	5.6%	21.1%	49.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	0.357	38.5%	8.3%	20.5%	41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.364	42.4%	4.4%	17.7%	42.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.329	42.5%	8.4%	21.4%	50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Manaea
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$21,600
	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20
	2017	29	4.51	4.37	20.2%	8.0%	44.1%	33.3%	14.8%
	2018	16	4.11	3.40	18.5%	4.7%	43.4%	38.4%	13.4%
	L14	2	3.38	2.77	22.9%	2.1%	38.9%	30.6%	13.9%

Manaea didn’t look right for a period that lasted over a month, but he finally seems to be rounding back into form. In his last two starts, he has a 3.38 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 2%. It’s worth noting that in his last start, he recorded his highest average fastball velocity (91.5 MPH) of the season. The question today is whether form trumps a matchup against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense. Their projected lineup has eight righties in it and as a whole has a .352 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea is certainly viable in tournaments, but there are safer cash game targets.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20
	2017	25	4.48	3.83	16.9%	5.9%	49.2%	30.0%	18.1%
	2018	15	4.21	4.17	20.9%	8.4%	45.1%	40.2%	14.9%
	L14	2	3.70	2.84	25.5%	5.9%	26.5%	47.1%	14.7%

Fulmer is a pitcher that I never seem to be on the right side of. There are a handful of them in the majors that I’ve basically stopped targeting. If you don’t play them, then eventually you’ll be on the right side of them, right? In 15 starts this season, he owns a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. There aren’t any red flags outside of his 40% hard contact rate. The issue that I have here is his matchup. Fulmer has always relied on a high ground ball rate and this A’s offense was built to hit fly balls.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea is the preferred pitching option in this game. I will be avoiding Fulmer in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s are a boom or bust offense that will fly under the radar in the early slate. After being one of the more popular stacks in last night’s slate, recency bias will cause people to look elsewhere. As mentioned above, Michael Fulmer has always relied on a high ground ball rate, which is basically negated in this matchup. Without that, he’s a mediocre pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. I will be going right back to the well with the one-through-five stack — Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Matt Olson.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.344	0.313	0.155	47.7%	5.1%	19.5%	40.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,600
2	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.342	0.490	0.157	36.1%	13.8%	23.6%	31.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,500
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.338	0.282	0.238	36.5%	9.9%	21.1%	37.3%	3B	$4,000	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,400
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.440	0.401	0.288	50.0%	8.1%	24.7%	34.7%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,000	LF	$9,700
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.412	0.371	0.255	54.7%	10.8%	26.5%	32.1%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.378	0.442	0.173	46.3%	7.0%	19.8%	43.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,400
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.300	0.262	0.090	26.8%	7.8%	18.5%	43.0%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.334	0.444	0.095	42.9%	6.2%	14.3%	44.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
9	Franklin Barreto	RIGHT	0.168	0.257	0.174	28.6%	0.0%	37.5%	30.8%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.340	0.362	0.181	41.1%	7.6%	22.8%	37.5%

Elite Plays – Dustin Fowler, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers should also fly under the radar today. They are rarely targeted in DFS as is and a matchup against Sean Manaea will really keep ownership low. While he has been in better form in his last few starts, he has allowed a .364 xwOBA with a 42% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. It’s hard to ignore those numbers, especially if you take the name of the pitcher and the offense out of the equation. We have a southpaw that struggles against righties and a right-handed heavy lineup that mashes left-handed pitching. Sounds a lot better, right? Jeimer Candelario, Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, John Hicks, and James McCann all boast a .355+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.262	0.240	0.131	51.2%	4.5%	26.9%	46.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.355	0.289	0.284	41.3%	9.3%	28.0%	47.8%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,700
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.391	0.403	0.171	48.2%	7.8%	18.2%	35.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,000
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.329	0.359	0.113	29.6%	6.1%	12.1%	46.3%	C	$2,500	1B	$3,000	1B	$5,600
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.375	0.303	0.158	40.6%	13.6%	13.6%	56.3%	OF	$2,900	2B/OF	$3,700	1B	$7,500
6	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.380	0.293	0.163	29.4%	13.7%	19.6%	38.2%	C	$2,500	1B/C	$3,300	1B	$6,600
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.453	0.192	0.224	46.2%	9.3%	18.5%	38.5%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
8	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.274	0.351	0.190	28.9%	4.5%	26.9%	29.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.350	0.308	0.222	25.0%	5.9%	5.9%	34.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,500
	Team Averages		0.352	0.304	0.184	37.8%	8.3%	18.9%	41.5%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, John Hicks (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Hicks (FD), Jeimer Candelario, Niko Goodrum, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Chicago White Sox
			Jake Odorizzi							Lucas Giolito
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-120							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.381	37.6%	10.6%	19.9%	24.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.403	0.428	31.3%	16.6%	9.6%	35.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.347	31.2%	10.0%	25.1%	28.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.342	28.9%	9.3%	17.3%	43.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:		14 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		11 of 20
	2017	28	4.90	4.14	21.0%	10.1%	30.6%	36.8%	15.3%
	2018	16	4.54	4.97	22.7%	10.2%	26.1%	34.2%	21.2%
	L14	2	4.84	13.50	21.6%	13.5%	39.1%	21.7%	21.7%

Odorizzi has a slightly above-average strikeout rate (23%), but that’s about all he offers. In 16 starts this season, he has a 4.54 SIERA with a walk rate of 10%. His hard contact rate is significantly higher than his ground ball rate, which is always a red flag. He’ll likely garner some ownership today thanks to a matchup against the White Sox, but I see him as an easy fade. It’s the same situation as last night with Kyle Gibson.

Quick Breakdown: This is an exploitable matchup, but Odorizzi’s form and potential ownership scare me off of him.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lucas Giolito
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,900	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:		15 of 20	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		16 of 20
	2017	7	4.49	2.38	19.0%	6.7%	45.0%	35.4%	19.2%
	2018	15	5.95	7.01	13.3%	13.1%	39.0%	30.2%	14.9%
	L14	2	3.87	6.57	25.9%	7.4%	27.8%	30.6%	22.2%

Giolito is having another rough season as a starter. In 15 appearances, he has a 5.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13% and a walk rate to match. While he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, that’s not a reason to play him in DFS. He draws a difficult matchup against the Twins, whose projected lineup has a .356 xwOBA with a 40% hard contact rate and a strikeout rate of only 19% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Giolito is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins let everyone down last night, failing to muster up any kind of production against James Shields. But hey, at least my hot take was on point. Recency bias could help lower their ownership today, even though their matchup against Lucas Giolito is one of the best in the early slate. On the season, Giolito has allowed a .428 xwOBA to lefties and a .342 xwOBA to righties. Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, and Logan Morrison all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.400	0.299	0.078	40.0%	12.8%	11.0%	51.6%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.356	0.316	0.283	39.1%	7.2%	16.3%	29.2%	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,500	LF	$10,100
3	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.380	0.310	0.318	42.4%	5.8%	23.7%	22.9%	3B	$3,600	3B/SS	$4,900	3B	$9,200
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.366	0.419	0.174	39.7%	11.1%	18.7%	28.9%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,700
5	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.307	0.265	0.189	38.7%	9.2%	18.5%	39.8%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,100
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.315	0.226	0.123	38.2%	11.8%	14.2%	38.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,600
7	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.303	0.323	0.122	36.8%	7.4%	27.8%	41.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$5,800
8	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.465	0.336	0.304	42.1%	4.2%	16.7%	42.1%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,500
9	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.314	0.290	0.168	41.1%	7.2%	23.9%	35.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.356	0.309	0.195	39.8%	8.5%	19.0%	36.6%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Throughout his career, Jake Odorizzi has been a reverse-splits pitcher. While his struggles against righties have continued this season, he’s also added struggling against lefties to the resume. On the season, he has allowed a .381 xwOBA to lefties and a .347 xwOBA to righties. The White Sox may not have the most talented offense in baseball, but each of the first five projected starters owns a .330+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season — Yoan Moncada, Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, and Matt Davidson.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.372	0.331	0.214	43.6%	8.8%	34.9%	33.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,500
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.335	0.292	0.181	27.8%	4.9%	15.5%	47.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,700	2B	$7,500
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.376	0.279	0.196	33.8%	5.6%	17.5%	41.3%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,200
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.330	0.260	0.113	35.2%	0.0%	24.3%	48.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,700
5	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.357	0.282	0.200	38.5%	12.4%	36.8%	39.6%	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,500
6	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.299	0.386	0.090	30.8%	3.7%	21.5%	55.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
7	Kevan Smith	RIGHT	0.375	0.346	0.028	21.9%	2.6%	10.5%	50.0%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900	C	$5,500
8	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.294	0.323	0.184	29.0%	7.9%	27.3%	45.1%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,200
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.251	0.225	0.079	22.0%	5.8%	26.9%	40.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,400
	Team Averages		0.332	0.303	0.143	31.4%	5.7%	23.9%	44.5%

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Seattle								Baltimore
			Mike Leake							Jimmy Yacabonis
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-130							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.420	40.4%	4.9%	11.7%	47.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.516	0.646	100.0%	80.0%	0.0%	100.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.353	37.1%	6.2%	17.1%	50.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.411	0.584	57.1%	11.1%	11.1%	28.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Leake
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20
	2017	31	4.15	3.92	16.6%	4.7%	53.7%	32.7%	15.8%
	2018	16	4.50	4.11	14.4%	5.5%	48.9%	38.8%	16.4%
	L14	2	4.65	3.21	10.9%	5.5%	52.2%	37.0%	17.4%

Leake has improved his ground ball rate as the season has gone along, but his numbers as a whole are ugly. In 16 starts, he has a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a hard contact rate of 39%. While he does have the advantage of facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense, he’s facing them in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. I know pitching is thin in the early slate, but Leake offers more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Leake in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jimmy Yacabonis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,300	Salary:		$8,100
	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		19 of 20	Salary Rank:		17 of 20
	2017	0	6.67	4.35	8.9%	15.6%	48.5%	32.4%	27.9%
	2018	0	11.07	15.43	7.1%	35.7%	37.5%	62.5%	37.5%

Yacabonis has made 16 career relief appearances this season, but this will be his first major league start. In 13 starts at the Triple-A level, he posted a 4.07 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 19%. A below-average strikeout rate in the minors is not what we want to see, as the sledding only gets tougher at this level. He’s an easy fade against the Mariners, whose projected lineup has a .350 xwOBA with a 34% hard contact rate and a strikeout rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Yacabonis in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners get to face a pitcher that is making his first career major league start. Jimmy Yacabonis is a 26-year old righty that had mediocre numbers in the minors. This is a great spot to stack Seattle, especially since they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. We don’t have enough data to work with to trust any splits, so target the batters with good numbers against right-handed pitching. This includes Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and Ryon Healy. Dee Gordon is also viable thanks to his stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.269	0.249	0.069	17.5%	1.9%	14.9%	56.1%	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,000
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.341	0.352	0.145	31.4%	4.7%	12.8%	54.7%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,900	SS	$8,800
3	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.412	0.405	0.240	38.9%	11.5%	22.6%	40.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,400
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.407	0.487	0.249	39.1%	7.1%	19.7%	43.5%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,500
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.338	0.287	0.213	41.4%	6.3%	20.4%	35.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,200
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.366	0.387	0.225	40.2%	3.3%	20.4%	41.2%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
7	Denard Span	LEFT	0.356	0.282	0.171	35.2%	13.1%	14.6%	38.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,300
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.331	0.268	0.241	41.3%	3.5%	36.8%	38.8%	C	$2,200	C	$3,400	C	$6,400
9	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.330	0.228	0.101	24.1%	13.2%	16.5%	46.8%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,800
	Team Averages		0.350	0.327	0.184	34.3%	7.2%	19.9%	43.9%

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Ryon Healy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are tempting as a stack given how bad Mike Leake has struggled this season. With that said, Leake does still own a 51% ground ball rate against right-handed hitters, a number that continues to climb as the season progresses. His biggest struggle has always been against left-handed hitters and I don’t ever feel great about targeting Colby Rasmus or Chris Davis. Manny Machado is my favorite play here, as he is a fly-ball hitter with a .391 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.276	0.304	0.108	35.0%	7.3%	41.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,300
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.352	0.281	0.194	33.7%	3.0%	18.0%	40.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,300
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.391	0.411	0.255	36.2%	11.1%	16.4%	33.9%	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000	3B	$9,500
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.377	0.473	0.230	42.4%	6.6%	23.0%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	1B/OF	$4,300	DH	$8,400
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.263	0.292	0.061	30.9%	7.7%	37.6%	47.4%	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,600	IF/OF	$4,600
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.372	0.261	0.152	34.1%	9.2%	24.8%	48.9%	OF	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.235	0.302	0.186	25.0%	2.8%	23.3%	48.8%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,800
8	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.240	0.331	0.041	22.6%	5.1%	26.9%	48.1%	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,100	SS	$5,700
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.239	0.347	0.180	28.6%	1.6%	31.7%	36.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
	Team Averages		0.305	0.334	0.156	32.1%	6.0%	27.0%	42.7%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Colby Rasmus, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								LA Dodgers
			Jose Quintana							Clayton Kershaw
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-180							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.288	27.8%	6.2%	27.2%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.370	0.356	36.4%	2.0%	30.6%	24.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.347	42.5%	12.1%	20.4%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.276	0.300	28.6%	6.7%	25.5%	50.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Quintana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,600
	Salary Rank:		11 of 20	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20
	2017	32	3.80	4.15	26.2%	7.7%	44.8%	32.6%	18.2%
	2018	15	4.40	4.26	22.0%	10.7%	45.6%	39.1%	15.0%
	L14	2	5.14	5.40	12.8%	8.5%	43.2%	48.7%	8.1%

Quintana has struggled in his last few starts and his numbers as a whole are down this season. In 15 starts, he has a 4.40 SIERA with a 11% walk rate and a 39% hard contact rate. He feels a bit too cheap given his talent level, but he’s a risky play given his form and his matchup. The projected lineup for the Dodgers has a .375 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 17% against left-handed pitching this season. The fact that Clayton Kershaw is pitching opposite him doesn’t help, as run support could be limited.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Quintana in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Kershaw
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,500	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$23,100
	Salary Rank:		1 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		1 of 20
	2017	27	3.04	2.31	29.8%	4.4%	47.9%	27.4%	23.5%
	2018	9	3.24	2.94	26.6%	5.6%	44.4%	30.3%	25.5%
	L14	1	3.14	6.00	28.6%	7.1%	44.4%	44.4%	22.2%

Kershaw’s velocity (91-92 MPH) was back where the Dodgers wanted it to be in his first start back from injury, but it’s clear that they are going to ease him back into action. He only threw 55 pitches in that start, so I doubt they are going to let him come out and throw 90+ pitches today. He’s obviously the most talented pitcher in the early slate, but the question is whether 70-75 (complete guess on my part) from Kershaw is better than a full complement of pitches from the other starters. The answer depends on the value available in the slate. If you can find enough cheap bats that you feel comfortable playing, then I would consider starting Kershaw.

Quick Breakdown: Kershaw is viable if enough value plays open up in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs might not get the full Clayton Kershaw treatment, but it’s not like it’s easy going against this Dodgers’ bullpen. Even though he’s battled injuries, Kershaw has still held right-handed hitters to a .300 xwOBA with a 29% hard contact rate. He also owns a 30% strikeout rate against lefties. I see the Cubs as a full fade, as they have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.328	0.254	0.159	27.1%	8.6%	7.1%	48.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.386	0.428	0.266	40.7%	4.4%	14.7%	50.0%	2B	$4,200	2B/SS	$4,600	2B	$9,300
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.350	0.308	0.074	44.7%	6.8%	13.6%	39.1%	OF	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,300
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.298	0.294	0.100	30.2%	7.4%	25.0%	28.6%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,600
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.389	0.262	0.214	34.9%	15.2%	19.7%	44.2%	C	$2,800	C	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.312	0.364	0.193	25.0%	9.4%	15.6%	36.2%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,500
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.338	0.342	0.109	31.6%	9.6%	17.3%	51.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
8	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.294	0.337	0.132	39.3%	11.5%	41.0%	32.1%	3B	$2,600	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,300
9	Jose Quintana	LEFT	0.028	0.048	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	P	$7,300	P	$7,400	P	$14,600
	Team Averages		0.303	0.293	0.139	30.4%	8.1%	24.5%	36.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers’ matchup against Jose Quintana looks a lot better if you take the name away from the splits. We know Quintana has talent, but he has given up a .347 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season. Chris Taylor (.379 xwOBA), Kike Hernandez (.353 xwOBA), Justin Turner (.468 xwOBA), and Matt Kemp (.462 xwOBA) all bat from the right side and all mash left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.379	0.343	0.238	37.7%	14.0%	16.0%	36.2%	SS	$3,200	OF/SS	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,400
2	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.353	0.427	0.242	31.1%	12.7%	20.0%	35.1%	SS	$3,000	OF/SS	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,300
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.468	0.396	0.161	42.9%	22.0%	9.8%	25.0%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,700
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.462	0.327	0.309	49.2%	8.9%	23.3%	27.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,700
5	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.305	0.268	0.113	39.5%	7.0%	17.5%	41.9%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,600
6	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.322	0.426	0.253	41.7%	13.9%	29.6%	28.3%	1B	$4,200	1B/OF	$4,500	1B	$9,100
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.281	0.334	0.104	29.0%	10.3%	18.4%	50.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,700
8	Austin Barnes	RIGHT	0.318	0.193	0.086	35.6%	11.8%	19.1%	55.6%	C	$2,100	2B/C	$2,800	C	$5,700
9	Clayton Kershaw	LEFT	0.485	0.000	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	P	$10,500	P	$11,700	P	$23,100
	Team Averages		0.375	0.302	0.167	36.9%	11.2%	17.1%	36.2%

Elite Plays – Kike Hernandez, Justin Turner, Matt Kemp

Secondary Plays – Chris Taylor, Logan Forsythe

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 28th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at Baltimore – 3:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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