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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-09 02:20:14

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

St. Louis Cincinnati
stlouismlb Mike Leake cincinnatimlb Scott Feldman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-102 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.323 28.8% 5.2% 15.1% 56.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.336 25.0% 9.3% 15.7% 49.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.311 30.8% 2.9% 18.7% 51.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.300 29.8% 5.5% 19.0% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake
mike-leake-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.92 4.69 16.5% 4.0% 53.7% 30.6% 17.3%
2017 11 3.82 2.64 18.1% 4.1% 54.1% 27.9% 15.9%

You might be tired of hearing this, but Leake is a better pitcher in real life than he is in daily fantasy. If it didn’t matter how a pitcher got outs, he would be more valuable, but unfortunately, this is a game that revolves around strikeouts. Leaks’s 18% strikeout rate isn’t the worst by any means, but it doesn’t quite give him the ceiling that we are looking for, especially at this price point. He does have a high ground ball rate, which is needed in this ballpark, but there are better options in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: I like Leake’s chances to pick up a win here, but he won’t be in any of my early lineups.

Scott Feldman
scott-feldman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 24 Salary Rank: 17 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.07 3.97 16.6% 5.6% 49.8% 24.6% 21.2%
2017 12 4.58 4.52 18.8% 9.0% 43.0% 32.3% 21.0%

Feldman isn’t a good major league starter, but he eats innings and gives his team a chance to win games every now and then. He offers little fantasy value thanks to a high ERA and a low strikeout rate and the fact that half of his starts come in Great American doesn’t help his cause. The Cardinals continue to find ways to lose games, but Feldman is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: There are better pitching options in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

I used to advise against stacking offenses facing Scott Feldman, but that was back when he had an above-average ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate. This season, he is giving up more fly balls and more hard contact, which is good news for the Cardinals’ offense. Feldman gives up a higher xwOBA to lefties than he does to righties, which brings Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter (who finally had a good game last night) into play. Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, and Yadier Molina are also in play thanks to the ballpark bump.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.359 0.346 0.188 30.8% 13.8% 24.9% 36.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.379 0.409 0.250 46.0% 15.7% 20.1% 27.7% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.329 0.346 0.154 33.0% 8.1% 21.2% 46.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.371 0.347 0.282 35.8% 7.7% 23.7% 42.6% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.328 0.332 0.123 31.5% 6.3% 11.1% 47.6% C $2,800 C $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.348 0.346 0.213 45.4% 9.0% 33.3% 50.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.355 0.311 0.205 29.6% 6.7% 12.9% 44.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.294 0.298 0.235 23.1% 0.0% 23.5% 38.5% 3B $2,200 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.148 0.234 0.040 15.8% 1.9% 27.8% 35.3% P $8,200 P $8,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Stephen Piscotty, Yadier Molina, Tommy Pham

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds have been red-hot in this series, but I’m not a fan of targeting hitters against Mike Leake. He has great command and a high ground ball rate. He also induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which limits the number of extra-base hits against him. For what it’s worth, Scott Schebler and Billy Hamilton both have good numbers against Leake if you want to play the BvP angle.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.303 0.255 0.080 19.2% 8.8% 20.3% 46.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.304 0.174 29.8% 9.5% 17.0% 38.6% SS $3,800 SS $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.420 0.438 0.253 39.9% 17.8% 14.8% 37.4% 1B $4,200 1B $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.333 0.330 0.259 37.0% 6.0% 26.5% 33.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.315 0.316 0.156 33.6% 7.8% 23.4% 40.6% 3B $3,100 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.338 0.333 0.212 35.7% 7.5% 21.9% 49.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.321 0.286 0.160 30.2% 5.7% 20.4% 43.3% 2B $2,200 2B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.281 0.300 0.141 21.3% 9.2% 19.5% 41.0% C $2,500 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Scott Feldman RIGHT 0.000 0.056 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 45.0% 28.6% P $7,300 P $6,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels Detroit
laangelsmlb J.C. Ramirez detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-150 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.308 30.0% 5.2% 16.7% 50.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.304 29.3% 7.0% 19.4% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.284 31.9% 6.7% 19.5% 51.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.277 27.9% 5.2% 20.7% 50.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.C. Ramirez
j-c-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 11 of 24 Salary Rank: 11 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.81 4.35 17.6% 6.6% 54.9% 26.4% 21.2%
2017 10 4.09 4.11 18.9% 5.3% 45.7% 36.7% 15.6%

After a great start to the season, Ramirez has cooled off a bit. He still owns a respectable 4.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%, but those numbers looked a lot more appealing a month ago. The good news is that he gets to face a right-handed heavy lineup today. The bad news is that these right-handed hitters from Detroit all mash right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At best, Ramirez is a deep GPP flier.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 24 Salary Rank: 5 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 11 3.99 3.00 19.3% 5.2% 48.9% 25.1% 16.7%

Fulmer was throwing in the high 90s last game and his fastball was running in on right-handed hitters. If he can throw that consistently, we could see his strikeout rate climb well above 20%. Fulmer is one of those pitchers that consistently has a lower ERA than SIERA and it’s been that way since he entered the majors. It’s possible that’s he’s better than his SIERA suggests. He draws an excellent matchup against the Angels, who may have the worst lineup in baseball right now.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is an elite play in all formats in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw a difficult matchup against Michael Fulmer, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in his career. The Angels aren’t an offense that I want a ton of exposure to at this point in the season, even in a small four game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.312 0.315 0.101 27.8% 6.1% 8.8% 54.1% SS $3,100 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.325 0.339 0.154 34.1% 9.8% 18.4% 38.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.322 0.361 0.173 36.1% 7.9% 13.4% 44.4% 1B $2,700 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.309 0.320 0.092 26.9% 6.4% 11.9% 59.0% 3B $3,200 3B $3,200 N/A N/A
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.330 0.328 0.193 37.2% 13.7% 24.0% 37.3% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $2,600 N/A N/A
6 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.331 0.331 0.171 32.6% 5.2% 17.7% 40.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.284 0.297 0.142 28.6% 9.6% 21.7% 46.2% C $2,300 C $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Ben Revere LEFT 0.246 0.254 0.092 22.4% 4.1% 8.7% 57.3% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Eric Young SWITCH 0.449 0.358 0.294 20.0% 5.3% 10.5% 57.1% OF $2,900 OF $2,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers’ matchup against JC Ramirez doesn’t look great on paper, but they are sizable favorites and have a high implied run total. The Tigers have let us down in good matchups two nights in a row, so it would make sense for them to have a big game today in a more difficult matchup when everyone will be off of them. Alex Avila remains an elite play in all formats. The Tigers aren’t my favorite offense in the slate, but I will certainly have a stack just in case they want to troll us again.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.166 34.5% 7.0% 16.1% 33.9% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.381 0.394 0.240 46.9% 17.4% 34.8% 40.6% C $3,200 1B/C $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.387 0.455 0.240 42.1% 10.2% 16.9% 40.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.387 0.178 41.3% 8.8% 14.3% 37.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.388 0.404 0.254 41.4% 10.9% 25.3% 42.8% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.347 0.231 39.8% 9.0% 29.3% 38.7% OF $3,600 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.346 0.384 0.189 39.1% 7.6% 25.1% 35.3% 3B $2,800 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Alex Presley LEFT 0.271 0.293 0.131 33.3% 7.6% 17.8% 46.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.273 0.258 0.076 17.7% 4.9% 12.9% 54.3% SS $2,200 SS $3,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

San Francisco Milwaukee
sanfranciscomlb Johnny Cueto milwaukeemlb Paolo Espino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.317 32.5% 5.0% 23.4% 46.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.520 33.3% 0.0% 18.2% 33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.285 26.7% 5.5% 22.5% 48.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.146 0.142 16.7% 0.0% 14.3% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto
johnny-cueto-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 24 Salary Rank: 2 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 2.79 22.5% 5.1% 50.2% 27.2% 19.4%
2017 12 3.64 4.38 24.2% 5.7% 40.6% 36.5% 13.5%

Cueto has picked up some steam in his last three starts, striking out at least eight in every outing. His strikeout rate is up to 24%, which is a bit higher than his k-rate in 2016. He should continue to pile up the strikeouts today, as the Brewers have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The ballpark isn’t ideal for a pitcher, but Cueto has the most upside of any arm in the early slate. The real question is whether or not his offense can give him run support.

Quick Breakdown: Cueto and Fulmer are the top two pitchers in the slate. I see Cueto with a higher ceiling and Fulmer with a higher floor.

Paolo Espino
paolo-espino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 24 Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 4.06 4.50 16.7% 0.0% 38.5% 26.7% 13.3%

Espino will draw the start for the Brewers today. This will be his second career major league start. In nine Triple-A starts this season, he has a 4.14 FIP with a strikeout rate of 24%. He is still an unknown at the major league level and he comes into today’s game as a sizable underdog at home against the Giants.

Quick Breakdown: It won’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Espino.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Paolo Espino is making his second career major league start and the Giants get to face him in one of the best hitter’s parks in the National League. Denard Span, Brandon Belt, and Brandon Crawford are all elite plays against the righty and we can also look to Eduardo Nunez and Buster Posey, who have been swinging hot bats recently.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.335 0.341 0.149 27.5% 7.9% 11.5% 47.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.320 0.289 0.122 26.3% 4.6% 14.3% 51.5% 3B $3,800 3B/OF $4,800 N/A N/A
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.376 0.391 0.214 38.3% 16.8% 22.2% 25.8% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.337 0.366 0.134 33.3% 9.3% 10.9% 49.3% C $3,900 1B/C $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.318 0.333 0.169 35.3% 8.4% 18.2% 43.7% SS $3,100 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.331 0.319 0.118 28.3% 8.8% 21.6% 58.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.312 0.334 0.159 26.4% 9.4% 7.9% 45.4% 2B $2,800 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Calixte RIGHT 0.242 0.280 0.000 16.7% 15.4% 38.5% 0.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Johnny Cueto RIGHT 0.100 0.160 0.000 6.3% 4.5% 22.7% 71.9% P $9,800 P $10,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Denard Span, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Buster Posey

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a difficult matchup against Johnny Cueto, who has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters throughout his career. Cueto has a lower ground ball rate this season, but he’s still not a pitcher that we want to pick on regularly. Eric Thames is the only batter that I would consider in tournaments, but he has been ice cold at the plate over the last two weeks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.326 0.301 0.138 35.0% 11.0% 25.9% 61.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.339 0.337 0.183 34.6% 11.0% 32.1% 46.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Eric Thames LEFT 0.418 0.367 0.301 42.7% 18.7% 21.9% 40.9% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.341 0.333 0.202 36.6% 8.2% 23.4% 38.4% 3B $3,400 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.315 0.293 0.156 31.5% 4.6% 19.3% 48.1% OF $3,100 3B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.288 0.290 0.145 29.1% 4.4% 18.5% 31.3% C $2,500 C $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.315 0.287 0.179 37.7% 9.5% 37.5% 43.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.263 0.246 0.126 25.6% 4.7% 21.0% 54.8% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Paolo Espino RIGHT 0.000 0.162 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,500 P $4,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames

Stackability – RED

San Diego at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

San Diego Arizona
sandiegomlb Clayton Richard arizonamlb Patrick Corbin
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-132 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.239 20.9% 5.8% 20.7% 79.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.318 36.1% 9.2% 27.6% 55.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.354 0.344 30.1% 8.8% 13.3% 56.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.371 0.356 38.1% 8.4% 15.7% 51.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Richard
clayton-richard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 24 Salary Rank: 21 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.46 3.33 13.4% 10.1% 65.1% 25.9% 21.6%
2017 12 3.87 4.36 16.7% 6.0% 57.8% 30.0% 18.1%

Richard has already faced the Diamondbacks three times this season. He had two very good starts (one complete game and another eight strikeout performance) and one very poor start (six earned runs). I’ll give you one guess as to where the three games were played. Hint: his good starts didn’t come in Chase Field. I’m not a fan of targeting mediocre pitchers in this ballpark and that’s not going to change today.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Richard in all formats.

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 24 Salary Rank: 13 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.38 5.15 18.7% 9.4% 53.8% 38.5% 15.2%
2017 12 4.32 5.43 17.8% 6.6% 49.1% 36.0% 15.4%

Corbin has not been sharp this season. He has a high ERA, a low strikeout rate, and he has given up a lot of hard contact. That’s not exactly the combination that we are looking for in a pitcher. He does draw the best matchup in the slate though, as the Padres are ranked 30th in team wOBA and 21st in strikeout rate against southpaws this season. The upside is certainly there for Corbin and we can live with a few earned runs if he gives up six or more strikeouts and picks up the win.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is viable in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

A quick glance at the table below shows how bad the Padres really are against left-handed pitching. Seven of their projected starters (including the pitcher) have an xwOBA under .300, which makes Patrick Corbin all the more viable. I do have interest in Hunter Renfroe and Wil Myers, though. Corbin struggles against right-handed hitters and this ballpark is great for right-handed power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chase d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.308 0.289 0.109 26.7% 7.8% 17.5% 40.5% SS $2,000 SS $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.293 0.294 0.118 26.2% 7.0% 12.7% 43.7% 3B $2,900 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.336 0.350 0.196 43.9% 10.7% 27.0% 40.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.430 0.388 0.298 32.0% 16.2% 10.3% 36.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.271 0.266 0.132 33.3% 5.4% 19.6% 31.0% C $2,400 C $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Allen Cordoba RIGHT 0.235 0.240 0.188 18.2% 0.0% 31.3% 45.5% SS $2,400 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.323 0.255 0.179 20.8% 6.8% 36.4% 57.1% 2B $2,300 3B/OF $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Matt Szczur RIGHT 0.259 0.242 0.133 20.9% 7.1% 24.5% 48.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Clayton Richard LEFT 0.256 0.275 0.000 22.2% 7.1% 28.6% 37.5% P $7,300 P $5,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are one of my favorite stacks in the early slate. I know that I always advise against stacking offenses that are facing a high ground ball pitcher, but we’ve already seen them score six runs against Clayton Richard in this ballpark earlier in the season. Richard struggles against right-handed hitters and the Diamondbacks’ lineup isn’t short of those.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.265 0.284 0.085 20.0% 9.7% 14.0% 44.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.334 0.294 0.160 31.4% 5.2% 17.0% 49.5% SS $2,600 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.413 0.416 0.201 46.3% 20.3% 19.0% 46.3% 1B $4,400 1B $5,400 N/A N/A
4 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.348 0.298 0.168 25.7% 6.1% 15.6% 46.0% SS $2,900 OF/SS $4,000 N/A N/A
5 TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD OF TBD N/A N/A
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.315 0.299 0.181 32.0% 4.0% 19.7% 50.0% 2B $2,200 2B $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.264 0.274 0.171 30.8% 11.6% 32.3% 56.7% 3B $4,000 3B $5,200 N/A N/A
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.357 0.354 0.171 31.5% 12.9% 21.1% 45.9% C $2,600 C $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.249 0.115 0.118 7.7% 0.0% 35.0% 66.7% P $7,700 P $7,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Owings

Secondary Plays – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Drury, Chris Iannetta

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore Washington
baltimoremlb Alec Asher washingtonmlb Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-130 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.309 32.4% 5.3% 16.5% 30.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.372 0.354 35.5% 8.5% 19.0% 38.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.317 28.7% 3.8% 14.5% 39.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.300 28.6% 4.0% 22.4% 44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alec Asher
alec-asher-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,300
Salary Rank: 24 of 24 Salary Rank: 24 of 24 Salary Rank: 16 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 5.12 2.28 11.7% 3.6% 35.2% 30.4% 22.8%
2017 4 4.28 3.62 18.3% 5.2% 33.9% 30.6% 20.7%

The first game of the evening slate should be a fun one. Asher is a fly-ball pitcher with a low strikeout rate, which could be troublesome in a matchup against the Nationals on the road. This game has an over/under of 9.5 runs and Asher is listed as the underdog. Even though he gets the benefit of facing the opposing pitcher in the lineup, Asher is an easy fade in tonight’s eight game slate.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Asher in a start in Baltimore.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 19 of 24 Salary Rank: 14 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.06 3.43 20.8% 6.5% 42.6% 29.5% 16.3%
2017 6 4.05 7.34 20.6% 5.0% 37.6% 39.4% 21.2%

Ross has nearly identical peripheral stats to 2016, yet his ERA is nearly four runs higher. He’s had some back luck to start and we should expect some positive regression moving forward. He draws a boom/bust matchup against the Orioles, who only have two left-handed hitters in their regular rotation. Ross has been tough on righties, holding them to a .300 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. If he can pitch around Seth Smith and Chris Davis, Ross could easily return value at this price point.

Quick Breakdown:Ross is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles see a negative ballpark shift and will lose the DH in this series. Their matchup against Joe Ross is fairly easy to break down. He is tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .354 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. The top two targets here are Seth Smith and Chris Davis.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.336 0.367 0.171 33.0% 10.7% 21.0% 45.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.342 0.195 32.7% 5.4% 16.4% 43.3% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.343 0.357 0.239 35.1% 6.8% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,800 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 0.379 0.264 37.8% 7.9% 23.3% 39.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.346 0.351 0.262 42.5% 13.7% 34.9% 36.5% 1B $3,900 1B $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.337 0.316 0.200 29.4% 3.1% 19.5% 42.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.400 0.383 0.282 38.5% 7.4% 25.9% 40.4% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,600
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.286 0.290 0.113 30.0% 4.7% 16.9% 43.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,200 SS $4,000
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.237 0.260 0.072 23.5% 3.4% 21.1% 43.8% C $2,200 C $2,200 C $4,200

Elite Plays – Seth Smith

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals draw a favorable matchup against Alec Asher and they get to face him at home. We’ve seen Washington hang some monster run totals on teams at home this season. Asher has a low ERA in his last nine starts, but we can expect some regression. With a high implied run total, the Nationals are viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.378 0.331 0.228 31.5% 4.0% 18.5% 45.2% SS $4,200 SS $5,400 IF/OF $10,500
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.328 0.257 0.159 32.7% 4.2% 27.8% 51.1% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.380 0.397 0.244 35.4% 18.5% 15.7% 39.6% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.327 0.336 0.188 34.9% 5.8% 23.1% 44.8% 1B $3,900 1B $5,200 1B $10,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.417 0.399 0.252 38.0% 6.6% 9.2% 35.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.346 0.348 0.195 35.4% 9.4% 17.9% 37.5% 3B $3,900 3B $4,700 3B $9,300
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.309 0.320 0.162 33.2% 6.7% 18.2% 36.7% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,200
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.283 0.271 0.153 32.3% 6.0% 31.3% 42.9% OF $2,800 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.190 0.167 0.027 17.4% 2.6% 38.5% 72.7% P $7,100 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious