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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-20 23:50:13

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Seattle at Baltimore – 12:35 PM ET

Seattle Baltimore
seattlemlb Nathan Karns baltimoremlb Tyler Wilson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -115 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.302 7 26.2% 11.2% SP vs. Left 0.303 0 5.4% 8.1%
SP vs. Right 0.312 17 20.7% 7.1% SP vs. Right 0.305 4 15.9% 4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Karns
nate-karns-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,400
FPPG: 34.3 FPPG: 17.9
Pitcher Rating: 55.2 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 3.70 2.84 25.9% 9.3% 15.5% 44.1% 38.2% 25.7%
2016 7 3.96 3.51 24.9% 10.4% 11.3% 40.0% 33.6% 32.1%
2015 26 3.90 3.67 23.4% 9.0% 9.2% 41.9% 36.5% 34.5%

There are only two day games on the schedule, but FanDuel and DraftKings are both offering early-only and all-day slates. Karns will make his eighth start of the season, after posting a 3.96 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24.9% in his first seven. He does have a high walk rate, but the strikeout upside more than makes up for it. He draws a boom or bust matchup today against the Orioles, who are ranked third in team wOBA and 20th in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Given the fact that this game is on the road, Karns should be limited to GPP play.

Tyler Wilson
tyler-wilson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $5,300
FPPG: 18.7 FPPG: 9.5
Pitcher Rating: 33.3 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 1 5.95 2.57 7.4% 3.7% 3.2% 29.2% 50.0% 41.7%
2016 4 4.65 2.93 12.0% 5.6% 5.7% 47.1% 31.4% 27.5%
2015 5 5.08 3.50 8.7% 7.4% 5.2% 52.0% 30.1% 31.5%

Wilson may have a low ERA, but his SIERA suggests some regression moving forward. In his last four starts, he has a 4.65 SIERA with a very low strikeout rate of 12%. He draws a decent matchup against the Mariners, who are ranked right around the major league average in both team wOBA and team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Even though Wilson is a small favorite, there isn’t enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners see a small ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. They come into the game with the sixth highest team total on the board, as they square off against Tyler Wilson. The sample size is still small (nine starts), but Wilson has allowed a .303+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.314 0.111 0.277 OF $3,300 OF $4,100
2 Seth Smith LEFT 0.344 0.193 0.251 OF $3,100 OF $4,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.370 0.208 0.430 2B $4,200 2B $5,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.368 0.226 0.361 OF $4,000 OF $5,100
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.340 0.188 0.492 3B $4,000 3B $5,000
6 Adam Lind LEFT 0.349 0.185 0.265 1B $2,400 1B $4,200
7 Steve Clevenger LEFT 0.298 0.137 0.126 C $2,200 C $3,200
8 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.314 0.089 0.294 SS $2,900 SS $4,500
9 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.274 0.139 0.245 OF $2,800 OF $3,600
Team Averages — 0.330 0.164 0.305 — — — —

Elite Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz, Adam Lind, Steve Clevenger

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore

The Orioles don’t have the best matchup on paper, but they are projected to score the fourth most runs of the 22 teams in action today. On the season, Baltimore is ranked third in team wOBA and second in team ISO. Over the last two seasons, Karns has allowed a .307 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .317 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.282 0.086 0.316 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.394 0.256 0.335 SS $3,800 3B/SS $5,000
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.344 0.210 0.410 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.411 0.342 0.448 1B $4,100 1B $4,900
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.338 0.182 0.378 OF $3,600 OF $4,300
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.359 0.252 0.383 2B $2,900 2B $3,800
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.332 0.226 0.277 3B $2,800 1B $3,200
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.301 0.142 0.306 C $2,100 C $2,700
9 Ryan Flaherty LEFT 0.277 0.142 0.267 2B $2,000 3B $2,800
Team Averages — 0.338 0.204 0.347 — — — —

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GPP

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Milwaukee
cubsmlb Jason Hammel milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -170 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.310 7 23.2% 9.6% SP vs. Left 0.331 0 17.9% 14.3%
SP vs. Right 0.295 17 24.2% 3.8% SP vs. Right 0.282 2 18.6% 3.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 29.6 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 80.6 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 4.07 3.09 21.6% 11.8% 10.5% 64.5% 22.6% 17.7%
2016 7 4.13 1.77 21.7% 9.6% 9.4% 48.1% 32.4% 24.1%
2015 31 3.45 3.74 24.2% 5.6% 10.9% 38.3% 37.2% 32.9%

Hammel has really been a nice backend starter for the Cubs this season. His 1.77 ERA may not be entirely indicative of how he has pitched, but he still owns a 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.7%. While Miller Park is considered more of a hitter’s ballpark, Hammel still has one of the better matchups on the board. The Brewers have the seventh lowest team total today and they are ranked dead last in strikeout rate (26.5%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,800
FPPG: 31.0 FPPG: 15.9
Pitcher Rating: 41.3 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 4.32 3.00 21.7% 8.7% 11.9% 32.3% 51.6% 31.3%
2016 3 4.41 4.00 18.8% 7.3% 12.1% 32.7% 42.9% 33.3%
2015 0 3.28 6.75 16.7% 5.6% 10.6% 57.1% 21.4% 21.4%

Guerra is making his fourth start of the season, posting a 4.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.8% in his first three. He is generating a high swinging strike rate, but he’s not exactly considered a top prospect. He is a 31 year old right hander that has spent most of his career in the minor leagues. He draws a difficult matchup today against the Cubs, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs come into today’s game with the second highest team total on the board. They are facing an inexperienced pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The left-handed hitters have the slight edge in this matchup, but the right-handed batters are also in play. The first six batters in the Cubs’ projected lineup all have a .343+ wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.343 0.176 0.343 OF $4,000 OF $5,100
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.343 0.148 0.331 OF $3,600 OF $4,800
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.377 0.208 0.321 3B $4,400 3B/OF $5,200
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.395 0.274 0.330 1B $4,600 1B $5,500
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.343 0.162 0.576 2B $4,100 2B $5,300
6 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.307 0.142 0.220 OF $2,100 OF $4,000
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.327 0.152 0.406 SS $3,600 SS $4,600
8 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.319 0.150 0.157 C $2,400 C $3,600
9 Jason Hammel RIGHT 0.169 0.029 0.221 P $9,600 P $9,400
Team Averages — 0.325 0.160 0.323 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Jorge Soler

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Milwaukee

The Brewers have hit right-handed pitching fairly well this season, but they have the seventh lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Jason Hammel, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA. You can look to a couple hitters here in the early-only slate, but there are better options in the all-day slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.320 0.081 0.364 SS $3,600 SS $3,900
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.292 0.175 0.296 OF $2,500 OF $2,000
3 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.309 0.133 0.169 2B $2,900 2B $3,900
4 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.337 0.277 0.255 1B $3,200 1B $3,700
5 Kirk Nieuwenhuis LEFT 0.314 0.170 0.383 OF $2,300 OF $3,400
6 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.290 0.141 0.323 OF $2,300 OF $3,100
7 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.257 0.062 0.277 3B $2,100 2B/3B $2,100
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.226 0.037 0.332 C $2,100 C $2,100
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.221 P $6,100 P $5,800
Team Averages — 0.261 0.120 0.291 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Alex Presley, Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Pittsburgh
atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz pittsburghmlb Jeff Locke
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -170 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.403 11 17.4% 5.8% SP vs. Left 0.351 6 11.9% 7.6%
SP vs. Right 0.349 10 21.5% 7.2% SP vs. Right 0.322 14 18.5% 9.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 32.7 FPPG: 17.6
Pitcher Rating: 39.4 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 3.21 1.20 21.8% 0.0% 8.3% 42.9% 38.1% 27.9%
2016 3 3.58 2.89 21.1% 2.6% 7.3% 38.6% 40.4% 32.8%
2015 15 4.30 5.71 19.3% 7.3% 8.9% 33.3% 43.5% 32.5%

Foltynewicz has pitched well in his first three starts of the season, posting a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.1% and a walk rate of only 2.6%. He has an electric fastball and a nice track record in the majors. He is certainly a pitcher to keep our eye on moving forward. Even though he is cheap, he should be avoided tonight against the Pirates. On the season, Pittsburgh is ranked fifth in team wOBA and sixth in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Jeff Locke
jeff-locke-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,200
FPPG: 18.9 FPPG: 7.9
Pitcher Rating: 64.3 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 5.96 7.15 8.2% 8.2% 5.4% 35.9% 43.6% 30.0%
2016 7 5.20 5.45 14.5% 12.2% 8.4% 53.8% 29.4% 25.8%
2015 30 4.18 4.49 17.5% 8.2% 9.0% 51.0% 24.9% 27.0%

Locke has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball so far this season. He has a 5.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.5%. His command has been off, he isn’t generating enough swinging strikes, and he is giving up a lot of hard contact. Luckily, he faces the ultimate slump buster in the Braves. On the season, Atlanta is ranked dead last in team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching. Locke may not have a ton of upside, but he should give us five or six quality innings and hopefully pick up a win. Given his price and matchup, Locke is a viable SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves knocked Francisco Liriano around a bit last night, but they are still the worst offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. They draw a favorable matchup on paper against Jeff Locke, but the Braves only have one hitter with at least a .320 wOBA against southpaws over the last two seasons. Freddie Freeman is the only batter of note here.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.287 0.057 0.274 OF $3,100 OF $3,200
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.234 0.043 0.238 OF $2,800 OF $3,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.320 0.117 0.386 1B $3,300 1B $3,700
4 Jeff Francoeur RIGHT 0.283 0.108 0.227 OF $2,300 OF $2,500
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.313 0.099 0.389 C $2,200 C $2,800
6 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.235 0.045 0.182 SS $2,100 SS $2,600
7 Chase d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.259 0.172 0.404 2B $2,100 3B/SS $3,000
8 Daniel Castro RIGHT 0.276 0.123 0.184 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,700
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.294 0.000 0.883 P $6,300 P $6,400
Team Averages — 0.278 0.085 0.352 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the second highest team total on the board tonight. That says more about the lack of favorable matchups tonight than the Pirates’ matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. While Foltynewicz has pitched well this season (both in the majors and the minors), he has still allowed a .349+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two years.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.352 0.168 0.360 1B $3,100 1B $3,500
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.368 0.200 0.365 OF $4,300 OF $5,000
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.339 0.149 0.398 OF $3,900 OF $5,200
4 Jung Ho Kang RIGHT 0.366 0.194 0.470 3B $3,300 3B $3,600
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.327 0.084 0.243 C $3,000 C $3,300
6 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.306 0.164 0.427 OF $3,200 OF $3,400
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.306 0.106 0.316 2B $3,400 2B $3,700
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.264 0.064 0.241 SS $2,700 SS $2,900
9 Jeff Locke LEFT 0.124 0.022 0.230 P $6,900 P $6,200
Team Averages — 0.306 0.128 0.339 — — — —

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Jung Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli, Matt Joyce

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cleveland at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Cincinnati
clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -140 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.221 6 18.5% 2.3% SP vs. Left 0.439 2 24.1% 10.3%
SP vs. Right 0.345 14 21.8% 3.7% SP vs. Right 0.249 0 15.8% 10.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 31.7 FPPG: 15.4
Pitcher Rating: 62.8 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 4.58 5.11 14.0% 4.0% 6.5% 40.0% 40.0% 31.7%
2016 6 4.20 3.82 16.1% 2.8% 7.2% 39.8% 40.7% 37.4%
2015 10 3.46 3.02 22.7% 3.2% 9.4% 37.5% 46.2% 33.2%

Tomlin has not been nearly effective this season as he was in 2015. Through six starts, he has a 4.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.1%. He has never had a great fastball and he generates a low swinging strike rate. To make matters worse, he has given up a 33%+ hard hit contact rate in each of the last two seasons. There are enough red flags to avoid Tomlin tonight against the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,600
FPPG: 27.0 FPPG: 13.4
Pitcher Rating: 33.3 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 4.89 3.60 15.6% 11.1% 11.3% 55.2% 27.6% 21.9%
2016 3 4.60 3.38 19.4% 10.5% 10.4% 44.2% 37.2% 26.1%

Adleman is not the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. Even in the minor leagues, he had a strikeout rate under 20% in each of the last two seasons. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog at home against the Indians. I have Adleman ranked as the second worst pitching option on the board. There are better plays for cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians come into tonight’s game with the highest team total on the board. They were able to complete a nice comeback last night thanks to two late home runs by Rajai Davis and Francisco Lindor. Tonight they square off against Tim Adleman, who hasn’t shown a whole lot in his first three major league starts. Batters from both sides of the plate are in play for Cleveland.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.339 0.204 0.286 1B $3,000 1B $4,000
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.389 0.170 0.392 2B $3,600 2B $4,900
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.338 0.139 0.364 SS $3,500 SS $4,200
4 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.309 0.128 0.409 P $4,000 3B/OF $3,400
5 Juan Uribe RIGHT 0.291 0.121 0.196 3B $2,100 3B $2,700
6 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.286 0.190 0.271 C $2,700 C $3,800
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.294 0.128 0.394 OF $2,300 OF $3,100
8 Marlon Byrd RIGHT 0.305 0.195 0.290 OF $2,600 OF $3,600
9 Josh Tomlin RIGHT P $8,300 P $7,400
Team Averages — 0.319 0.159 0.325 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Yan Gomes

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

The Reds are ranked 27th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. While that’s not exactly promising, they draw a decent matchup against Josh Tomlin, who looks like a completely different pitcher this season. I still prefer to target the left-handed bats in the Reds’ lineup, but it’s hard to ignore Tomlin’s reverse splits. Over the last two seasons, he has held left-handed hitters to a .221 wOBA, while giving up a .345 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.319 0.181 0.293 SS $3,500 SS $3,200
2 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.242 0.049 0.276 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.404 0.221 0.371 1B $3,600 1B $4,000
4 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.319 0.127 0.324 2B $2,800 2B $3,800
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.330 0.245 0.496 OF $3,600 OF $4,000
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.310 0.162 0.302 3B $2,800 3B $4,000
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.371 0.333 0.425 OF $3,700 OF $3,800
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.295 0.094 0.238 C $2,300 C $2,300
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 P $5,900 P $5,600
Team Averages — 0.288 0.157 0.303 — — — —

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Billy Hamilton, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce

Stackability – GPP

Washington at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Washington NY Mets
washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg nymetsmlb Matt Harvey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -115 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.247 6 29.7% 7.7% SP vs. Left 0.315 17 23.9% 7.5%
SP vs. Right 0.311 12 29.7% 3.5% SP vs. Right 0.254 5 24.1% 3.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $12,900
FPPG: 47.3 FPPG: 25.7
Pitcher Rating: 88.0 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 3.27 4.85 31.6% 10.5% 10.9% 41.9% 35.5% 28.1%
2016 8 2.95 2.95 29.8% 6.9% 11.9% 47.8% 32.8% 25.6%
2015 23 2.76 3.46 29.6% 5.0% 11.2% 42.2% 34.3% 28.9%

Strasburg has given up some runs in his last couple of starts, but his numbers on the season are tremendous. He owns a 2.95 SIERA witha strikeout rate of 29.8%. Tonight’s game against the Mets should be a fun one, as two top tier pitchers square off in a ballpark that yields little offensive production. Strasburg grades out as the second best pitching option on the board, right behind Chris Sale. The upside is certainly there for Strasburg, the only concern is run support with Matt Harvey pitching opposite him.

Matt Harvey
matt-harvey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,700
FPPG: 27.6 FPPG: 13.0
Pitcher Rating: 82.2 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L14 Days 2 2.42 5.40 32.0% 4.0% 15.8% 40.0% 23.3% 28.1%
2016 8 3.97 4.93 20.4% 6.5% 11.2% 40.0% 32.1% 28.8%
2015 29 3.23 2.71 24.9% 4.9% 11.6% 46.0% 36.1% 26.7%

Harvey hasn’t been nearly as bad as his 4.93 ERA would suggest. In fact, his numbers are trending in the right direction. In his last two starts, he has a 2.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. He should see some positive regression moving forward and that could very well start tonight at home against the Nationals. Outside of Bryce Harper and Daniel, Washington really struggles against right-handed pitching. The masses will gravitate to Stephen Strasburg in this matchup, making Harvey an excellent GPP play and a sneaky cash game target at his price.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The breakdown for both of these offenses will be short. Basically, two elite pitchers are squaring off tonight in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The total for the game is set at only 7.0 runs and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the final score ended up being 2-1. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are interesting GPP plays, but the rest of the Nationals’ offense can be avoided against Matt Harvey.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ben Revere LEFT 0.305 0.074 0.151 OF $2,300 OF $3,100
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.280 0.131 0.277 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.465 0.349 0.443 OF $4,200 OF $4,700
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.365 0.201 0.374 2B $3,700 2B $4,000
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.293 0.159 0.296 1B $3,100 1B $3,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.303 0.099 0.341 3B $3,500 3B $3,400
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.292 0.139 0.381 C $2,900 C $3,000
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.159 0.298 SS $2,400 SS $2,400
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.157 0.000 0.177 P $10,600 P $12,900
Team Averages — 0.306 0.146 0.304 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

The Mets are ranked inside the top ten in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching. Unfortunately, that all goes out the window when they face an elite right-handed pitcher like Stephen Strasburg. The Mets have the third lowest team total on the board tonight and I will be avoiding their offense in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.373 0.223 0.282 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
2 David Wright RIGHT 0.341 0.146 0.282 3B $2,800 3B $3,100
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.393 0.276 0.280 OF $3,600 OF $2,900
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.384 0.276 0.436 OF $4,000 OF $4,000
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.355 0.235 0.244 1B $3,000 1B $3,100
6 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.336 0.187 0.223 2B $2,800 2B $2,900
7 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.322 0.162 0.257 SS $2,600 SS $2,400
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.269 0.066 0.312 C $2,300 C $2,100
9 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.101 0.039 0.427 P $8,500 P $9,700
Team Averages — 0.319 0.179 0.305 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious