MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-11 02:39:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Chicago White Sox
			Blake Snell							Carson Fulmer
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CWS-100							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.210	0.254	26.3%	9.3%	24.4%	47.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.340	21.4%	14.9%	20.9%	31.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.324	32.9%	11.2%	21.0%	41.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.232	0.333	27.5%	7.3%	18.2%	35.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.72	4.04	21.8%	10.8%	43.9%	33.2%	18.8%
	2018	2	5.31	5.00	18.4%	13.2%	26.9%	19.2%	23.1%

We have the same early schedule as yesterday. There are three games that start before the main slate, but only the first two are included in the early-only slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Snell can be a high-strikeout pitcher when he is finding the strike zone early in the count. His biggest weakness has always been his command. In 2017, he walked 11% of the batters he faced and so far this season, that number is even worse. While the game is expected to be played in cold temperatures, we do have a slight wind blowing out to left field. As far as the matchup goes, the White Sox do have a lot of high-strikeout bats in their lineup, but they also have good power numbers against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is best suited as an SP2 in the early slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carson Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	5	5.59	3.86	18.8%	12.9%	28.8%	20.9%	19.4%
	2018	1	2.91	5.40	23.8%	4.8%	53.3%	40.0%	26.7%

Fulmer gave up three runs to the Blue Jays in his first start of the season, but his advanced numbers were solid. We are still dealing with a small sample size, even when we include his five starts from last season. The reason to like Fulmer here is his matchup against the Rays. Their lineup has an average xwOBA of only .300 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. These are decent conditions for a pitcher and in his last six major league starts, Fulmer has done a nice job of inducing soft and medium contact. It’ll be interesting to see how ownership shakes out between these two pitchers, but I am giving the slightest of edges to Fulmer.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is a viable SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

This game features a low run total, but with only four offenses to target in the early slate, we have no choice but to target some hitters from this game. Again, we are dealing with a small sample size when it comes to Carson Fulmer, but he has allowed a .333+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. While the Rays don’t have the most potent offense in baseball, there are two plays that stand out in this one. The first is Joey Wendle, who brings some left-handed power to the lineup. He is very cheap across the industry and is batting second. The second is Carlos Gomez, who has been a reverse-splits hitter over the last few seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.343	0.339	0.180	27.7%	7.4%	12.5%	41.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
2	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.321	0.218	0.214	30.4%	3.3%	20.0%	47.8%	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.354	0.353	0.227	42.0%	8.5%	29.3%	39.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
4	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.307	0.334	0.162	34.7%	5.5%	25.7%	33.2%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
5	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.461	0.277	0.235	30.8%	0.0%	23.5%	46.2%	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.303	0.258	0.087	21.3%	9.4%	19.1%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.284	0.332	0.183	32.1%	4.0%	17.8%	52.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.280	0.295	0.119	36.1%	2.9%	19.4%	49.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.288	0.296	0.103	30.6%	11.1%	27.2%	50.9%	2B	$2,400	OF	$2,400	LF	$4,900

Elite Plays – Joey Wendle

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have more upside than the Rays do in this game. Not only do they have more firepower in their lineup, but Blake Snell is prone to give up big outings every now and then. Given his high walk rate and his low ground ball rate, he can run into trouble quickly. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .324 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The two-through-five stack is viable here, as they all boast a .360+ xwOBA and a 35%+ hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.275	0.254	0.113	29.4%	9.0%	32.6%	51.0%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.434	0.361	0.164	40.3%	5.2%	18.1%	55.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.437	0.422	0.277	43.8%	6.3%	18.9%	45.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.331	0.351	0.238	34.9%	6.0%	30.1%	31.3%	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.380	0.368	0.235	41.1%	3.7%	28.0%	34.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.363	0.325	0.185	31.3%	1.7%	23.7%	50.0%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
7	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.319	0.281	0.056	24.7%	4.0%	16.2%	62.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.279	0.251	0.123	17.9%	6.4%	25.0%	38.9%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.279	0.259	0.140	20.6%	6.9%	24.5%	39.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Chicago Cubs
			Ivan Nova							Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-145							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.387	35.0%	4.7%	11.7%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.360	0.339	29.1%	14.7%	19.4%	58.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.313	34.5%	4.9%	20.9%	47.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.322	28.2%	10.3%	18.3%	57.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	4.45	4.14	16.7%	4.6%	45.7%	34.8%	16.6%
	2018	2	4.76	6.10	15.2%	8.7%	37.1%	34.3%	5.7%

Yesterday’s game was postponed, so this will officially be the first day game in Wrigley Field this season. If you are new to daily fantasy baseball, it’s critical to check the wind for day games in this ballpark. When the wind is blowing out, it can turn pop fly outs into home runs. When the wind is blowing in, it becomes an extreme pitcher’s park. While the wind is slightly blowing out to right center, temperatures are going to be so cold that it’s not going to make much of a difference. Nova is at his best when he is facing a right-handed heavy lineup and the Cubs have four lefties in their lineup today. As an underdog on the road in a difficult matchup, I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: If I had to rank the four pitchers for the early slate, I’d go Chatwood, Fulmer, Snell, and then Nova.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%
	2018	1	6.87	1.50	14.8%	22.2%	53.3%	17.7%	29.4%

Now that Chatwood is out of Coors Field, we can expect a better season. Throughout his career with the Rockies, he was great on the road and awful at home. That’s no surprise when your home park is the best hitter’s park in baseball. Chatwood has an elite ground ball rate (58% last season) and he generates a lot of soft and medium contact. While the strikeout rate and walk rate could use some improvement, we don’t have many options to work with here in the early slate. A matchup against the Pirates isn’t great when it comes to upside, but run prevention will be the key in this one. He’s the most expensive pitching option on the board, but rightly so.

Quick Breakdown: Chatwood is the top pitching option of the early slate and is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a lot working against them tonight. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly environment (negligible wind with cold temperatures) and they are facing a high ground ball pitcher. Since the beginning of last season, Tyler Chatwood has a 57%+ ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters. While he has allowed a .339 xwOBA to lefties during that stretch, I don’t have a ton of confidence in the likes of Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, or Corey Dickerson. My goal is to get as many White Sox and Cubs into my lineup here in the early-only slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.322	0.324	0.143	33.1%	4.9%	16.2%	34.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.321	0.334	0.177	28.9%	8.4%	12.2%	40.4%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.351	0.329	0.130	26.3%	7.2%	17.2%	48.5%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.346	0.335	0.209	33.2%	11.4%	19.7%	51.9%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.339	0.333	0.219	34.5%	5.9%	22.9%	38.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.317	0.336	0.123	32.8%	11.1%	19.5%	46.9%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.401	0.466	0.226	41.4%	8.8%	5.9%	34.5%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.313	0.302	0.149	27.8%	9.3%	15.6%	47.6%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.000	0.060	0.000	4.4%	0.0%	46.5%	70.6%	P	$7,400	P	$6,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Ivan Nova is an easy matchup to break down — he is tough on right-handed hitters (.313 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate), but he struggles against lefties, allowing a .387 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate since the beginning of last season. We don’t have the most ideal hitting conditions today, but the Cubs have shown that they can put up runs in tougher spots. A Cubs’ stack is viable in both cash games and tournaments. As far as individual bats go, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, and Kyle Schwarber are the preferred targets, as they can all bat from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.349	0.344	0.276	35.3%	11.2%	34.2%	40.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.400	0.365	0.253	32.0%	13.2%	19.9%	38.1%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,700	N/A	N/A
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.324	0.342	0.147	32.9%	11.6%	14.4%	51.4%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.341	0.322	0.201	35.1%	8.2%	25.7%	52.7%	C	$3,400	C	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.348	0.367	0.283	38.9%	11.7%	30.0%	39.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.295	0.303	0.170	33.0%	6.2%	22.3%	39.5%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.323	0.346	0.145	28.1%	10.5%	11.3%	47.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.311	0.280	0.192	29.5%	6.3%	28.6%	49.2%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.149	0.144	0.038	12.0%	0.0%	19.4%	60.0%	P	$8,000	P	$10,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Cleveland
			Matt Boyd							Josh Tomlin
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-200							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.296	24.7%	8.7%	16.5%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.364	40.3%	2.7%	17.4%	39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	0.338	36.8%	8.4%	17.9%	35.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.361	34.3%	2.3%	18.8%	38.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	25	4.94	5.27	18.2%	8.8%	38.1%	34.6%	21.0%
	2018	1	7.58	1.50	4.6%	0.0%	14.3%	38.1%	28.6%

If I remember correctly, the home games for the Indians will all start at this time for the next couple of months. With the Cavaliers gearing up for the playoffs and the two stadiums in close proximity, the earlier start time helps with traffic and parking. It’s annoying since the games won’t be included in the early or main slates, but there’s nothing we can do about it. Boyd has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on over the years. He is a low-strikeout lefty that gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters. He is an easy fade against the Indians, who have five projected starters with an ISO over .200 against southpaws.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Boyd.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	26	4.17	4.98	18.6%	2.4%	39.6%	36.2%	14.0%
	2018	1	7.47	24.00	5.6%	5.6%	12.5%	56.3%	18.8%

Tomlin is another pitcher that I’d rather take hitters against than use in DFS. While he does throw a lot of strikes, he still has a below-average strikeout rate. He is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of medium and hard contact, which can quickly lead to trouble. He was rocked in his first start and given the fact that he has struggled against right-handed hitters throughout his career, I expect more of the same today against the Tigers. While Detroit’s offense isn’t what it used to be, they still have some decent firepower in the heart of their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: With this game being in the all-day slate, both pitchers are easy fades in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers will garner little to no ownership in the all-day slate. There are 15 games on the schedule today and Detroit is a massive underdog on the road. While I like the matchup against Josh Tomlin, I won’t be going out of my way to target this offense in cash games. For tournaments, there are a few intriguing one-off targets. Since the start of last season, Tomlin has allowed a .360+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and Victor Martinez all own a .370+ xwOBA and a 42%+ hard contact rate against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.213	0.270	0.070	25.8%	7.1%	25.7%	37.5%	OF	$2,500	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.322	0.315	0.132	25.7%	11.0%	19.2%	46.5%	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.298	0.380	0.150	42.1%	9.1%	20.0%	41.1%	1B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.334	0.375	0.193	43.1%	6.4%	22.7%	35.5%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.314	0.373	0.132	42.8%	8.7%	14.3%	37.7%	C	$2,400	N/A	N/A
6	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.327	0.301	0.153	33.7%	6.9%	21.5%	47.9%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.277	0.301	0.112	36.9%	6.0%	25.1%	38.6%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.277	0.261	0.116	27.5%	4.4%	14.8%	52.0%	SS	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.312	0.294	0.103	35.6%	4.5%	18.2%	55.6%	2B	$2,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos (Cash), Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians would be one of the top offenses to target if they were included in the main slate. We can still fire up a few Cleveland bats in the all-day slate though, as they square off against the hittable Matt Boyd. Over the last two seasons, Boyd has allowed a .338 xwOBA, a 37% hard contact rate, and an 8% walk rate to right-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion are all elite plays individually and you can certainly make a mini-stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.376	0.368	0.216	41.2%	8.3%	13.0%	38.7%	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.287	0.308	0.146	27.9%	9.1%	16.8%	44.7%	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.385	0.358	0.244	36.0%	6.3%	10.5%	40.8%	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.362	0.396	0.201	36.6%	19.6%	21.7%	43.5%	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.299	0.305	0.082	24.3%	4.6%	13.0%	51.4%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.300	0.315	0.108	21.3%	7.3%	21.2%	38.7%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A
7	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.287	0.352	0.241	36.1%	8.6%	23.7%	36.1%	1B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.362	0.333	0.277	39.7%	10.1%	27.1%	42.9%	C	$2,800	N/A	N/A
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.289	0.278	0.120	21.4%	8.8%	19.7%	46.4%	OF	$2,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			Mike Foltynewicz							Stephen Strasburg
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-220							7.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.362	34.3%	10.1%	19.9%	31.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.263	0.279	23.3%	8.2%	27.5%	48.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.311	0.313	23.2%	6.9%	23.0%	47.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.274	31.3%	5.0%	30.0%	45.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29
	2017	28	4.57	4.79	20.7%	8.5%	39.4%	28.1%	15.8%
	2018	2	2.37	2.61	34.1%	6.8%	45.8%	37.5%	16.7%

Foltynewicz has pitched well in his first two starts of the season, posting a 2.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34%. Perhaps that velocity is finally starting to lead to a high strikeout rate. I’m not a believer just yet though, as he’ll face his toughest task to date. He checks into tonight’s game against the Nationals as a massive underdog on the road. I won’t be targeting Foltynewicz here, but I will certainly be keeping an eye on how he performs tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Foltynewicz is an easy fade in this matchup.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Stephen Strasburg
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$21,200
	Salary Rank:		3 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29
	2017	28	3.37	2.52	29.1%	6.7%	46.8%	27.3%	21.4%
	2018	2	3.11	3.65	24.1%	5.6%	48.6%	27.0%	24.3%

Strasburg doesn’t have the best track record against Freddie Freeman and the Braves, but everything sets up well for him tonight. He has an elite strikeout rate (29%) and terrific splits at home throughout his career. He is one of the biggest favorites on the board and his price feels a thousand dollars too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The only argument to fade Strasburg is if you are wanting to load up on hitters in Coors Field and/or Globe Life Park.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Strasburg is the top SP1 on the board tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

As mentioned above, this collection of Braves has actually fared well against Stephen Strasburg. Most of the damage has come from Freddie Freeman, who is 15-for-40 with four home runs and four doubles against Strasburg in his career. While it wouldn’t surprise me if Freeman took Strasburg deep again, there are better hitters to pay up for in this slate. Keep in mind that the Braves are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have the lowest implied run total on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.329	0.291	0.113	24.0%	6.3%	13.7%	42.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,300
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.312	0.314	0.164	30.1%	6.5%	16.2%	38.1%	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.429	0.434	0.296	38.9%	15.7%	16.2%	33.3%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,500
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.328	0.344	0.108	35.1%	11.3%	16.0%	46.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,400
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.344	0.332	0.200	30.3%	5.9%	12.9%	36.3%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
6	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.563	0.425	0.381	41.2%	8.3%	20.8%	29.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.277	0.294	0.090	27.2%	10.0%	21.4%	47.2%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,900
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.375	0.344	0.089	23.3%	12.3%	20.0%	54.8%	3B	$3,000	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$5,700
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.078	0.113	0.026	13.6%	0.0%	51.1%	42.9%	P	$7,000	P	$6,600	P	$13,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are big favorites here, but their implied run total isn’t as appealing as some of the other teams on the schedule. Mike Foltynewicz has really pitched well this season. I won’t have a ton of exposure to the Nationals’ offense, but the left-handed bats of Bryce Harper and Adam Eaton are worth a look in tournaments. Since the beginning of last season, Foltynewicz has allowed a .362 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.435	0.383	0.220	37.4%	13.7%	14.5%	48.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,000	CF	$9,400
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.378	0.365	0.203	33.0%	13.0%	14.0%	34.6%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.450	0.432	0.351	35.6%	16.9%	17.2%	37.1%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,200
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.367	0.377	0.247	39.1%	7.0%	23.5%	46.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,700
5	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.351	0.312	0.148	29.6%	4.7%	20.6%	62.0%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.354	0.327	0.191	27.9%	7.5%	18.8%	51.3%	SS	$4,500	SS	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,400
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.324	0.291	0.208	33.6%	7.3%	32.5%	41.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,700
8	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.280	0.291	0.139	34.2%	10.5%	23.6%	37.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
9	Stephen Strasburg	RIGHT	0.128	0.189	0.070	11.8%	0.0%	24.4%	67.7%	P	$9,800	P	$10,800	P	$21,200

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Adam Eaton (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Philadelphia
			Homer Bailey							Aaron Nola
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-210							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.364	0.380	31.5%	12.8%	13.2%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.314	0.302	30.7%	9.8%	22.1%	47.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.375	0.389	33.3%	7.8%	17.3%	45.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.266	27.6%	5.0%	29.7%	52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Homer Bailey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		24 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29
	2017	18	5.19	6.43	16.0%	10.0%	44.6%	31.0%	16.5%
	2018	2	5.90	4.22	10.0%	12.0%	39.5%	43.6%	18.0%

Bailey is one of the best pitchers to target hitters against. He has a below-average strikeout rate (10%), a high walk rate (10%), and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a high xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. He carries zero fantasy appeal in a matchup against the Phillies in one of the best ballparks in baseball for home run production.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bailey in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$16,300
	Salary Rank:		7 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29
	2017	27	3.60	3.54	26.6%	7.1%	49.8%	29.7%	21.6%
	2018	2	4.68	2.61	16.7%	11.9%	53.6%	20.7%	20.7%

Nola’s advanced statistics so far this season haven’t been great. In two starts, he has a 4.68 SIERA with a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, as he typically has very good command. I always love pitchers that have an above-average strikeout rate and an ability to keep the ball on the ground. While this is a hitter-friendly ballpark, Nola posted a 2.96 FIP with a 30% strikeout rate here last season. His slow start has led to a suppressed price point, which only make him a stronger play in DFS. The Reds aren’t necessarily a high-strikeout offense, but they don’t have much firepower outside of Joey Votto.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is my favorite SP2 on the board and I wouldn’t hesitate to use him as an SP1 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. Since the start of last season, Aaron Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate. Seeing as how I will have a ton of exposure to Nola in all formats, I’m obviously going to take a hard pass on the Reds’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.437	0.383	0.232	36.4%	14.3%	18.8%	52.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,700
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.267	0.285	0.068	20.1%	3.3%	14.4%	43.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.429	0.436	0.246	37.8%	18.7%	10.2%	36.5%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$9,300
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.380	0.347	0.248	36.4%	6.2%	20.5%	38.7%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,200	2B	$7,000
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.301	0.285	0.210	31.0%	5.1%	28.3%	31.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,800
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.333	0.339	0.138	34.7%	10.1%	16.0%	42.6%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	C	$5,500
7	Cliff Pennington	SWITCH	0.311	0.280	0.102	28.6%	10.7%	27.0%	37.5%	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,700
8	Homer Bailey	RIGHT	0.217	0.145	0.038	15.0%	0.0%	37.5%	78.6%	P	$5,500	P	$5,400	P	$11,200
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.296	0.259	0.090	15.8%	8.9%	20.1%	46.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

There are three offenses that I want to load up on tonight and the Phillies are one of them. They draw an elite matchup against Homer Bailey, who has allowed a .380+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two years. This offense is better than most people realize and their home ballpark is one of the best in baseball for home runs. The Phillies are a viable stack in all formats with Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, and Rhys Hoskins standing out as the best individual plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.345	0.306	0.111	21.0%	10.9%	21.1%	50.5%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,200
2	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.359	0.392	0.224	36.6%	13.2%	17.6%	32.5%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,200
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.327	0.310	0.166	28.4%	6.5%	21.4%	40.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.441	0.407	0.338	42.7%	14.0%	22.5%	26.4%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,400	1B	$10,600
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.343	0.334	0.194	36.8%	5.7%	28.1%	46.8%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,500
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.295	0.316	0.178	29.6%	6.3%	15.8%	43.8%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
7	Andrew Knapp	SWITCH	0.332	0.312	0.112	37.1%	16.2%	27.7%	57.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	C	$4,700
8	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.289	0.283	0.079	13.0%	14.5%	23.7%	32.6%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,600
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.122	0.130	0.000	0.0%	9.8%	52.9%	82.4%	P	$8,500	P	$8,200	P	$16,300

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 10th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Wendle

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Welington Castillo

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos (Cash), Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Adam Eaton (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera

Stackability – GREEN

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