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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-08-03 02:21:36

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

San Francisco at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

San Francisco Philadelphia
sanfranciscomlb Madison Bumgarner philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -220 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.234 5 25.6% 33.0% SP vs. Left 0.324 4 33.3% 6.8%
SP vs. Right 0.268 31 30.2% 26.4% SP vs. Right 0.312 3 32.3% 15.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
madison-bumgarner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,800 Salary: $13,000
FPPG: 42.3 FPPG: 24.7
Pitcher Rating: 93.5 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 107.2 2.82 1.75 31.9% 5.1% 13.3% 35.3% 44.7% 26.4%
2016 22 106.8 3.23 2.09 28.4% 6.0% 11.7% 38.8% 40.6% 32.0%
2015 32 103.5 3.00 2.93 26.9% 4.5% 12.5% 41.7% 35.6% 27.8%

Does Bumgarner ever have a bad stretch of starts? I’m 99% positive that the answer is no. The boxes in his pitching table below are always blue and green. In 22 starts this season, he has a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.4% and a walk rate of 6.0%. He has to be licking his chops for tonight’s matchup against the Phillies, who are shall I say, offensively challenged. They are currently ranked 22nd or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against southpaws. There are enough aces on the mound that I wouldn’t call Bumgarner a must play, but he does have the highest rating of the 30 pitchers in action tonight.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 22.8 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 25.6 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.0 5.06 3.34 13.3% 5.9% 6.4% 34.9% 38.7% 37.0%
2016 9 91.1 5.18 4.23 11.8% 5.2% 5.9% 36.4% 39.0% 32.8%

Eflin isn’t the prototype of a pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS. In his first nine career major league starts, he has a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 11.8%. He gives up more fly balls than ground balls and he has allowed a hard hit contact rate of 32.8%. His matchup against the Giants is less than ideal, as they have the second lowest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants should be better against right-handed pitching, but they are ranked 15th in team wOBA and 26th in team ISO on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Zach Eflin in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Their run projection is slightly above the average of the 30 teams in action and Eflin hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.346 0.122 0.343 OF $3,500 OF $4,200
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.328 0.121 0.221 3B $3,500 3B/SS $4,400
3 Joe Panik LEFT 0.348 0.161 0.117 2B $2,900 2B $4,500
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.351 0.146 0.328 C $3,600 C $4,000
5 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.371 0.187 0.351 OF $3,400 OF $4,200
6 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.365 0.191 0.334 1B $4,000 1B $3,900
7 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.334 0.203 0.269 SS $3,200 SS $4,200
8 Angel Pagan SWITCH 0.287 0.104 0.308 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
9 Madison Bumgarner LEFT 0.274 0.158 0.530 P $11,800 P $13,000
Team Averages — 0.334 0.155 0.311 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are battling with the Braves for the right to be called the worst offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. They are ranked 30th in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO. With a matchup against Madison Bumgarner, it’s no surprise that they have the lowest implied team total on the board. Every once in a while we will see something random happen (like the Twins going off last night against Danny Salazar), but over the long run, it’s not a great strategy to target hitters against elite pitchers.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.331 0.063 0.405 2B $2,500 2B $2,900
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.294 0.066 0.296 OF $2,900 OF $3,400
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.345 0.219 0.226 3B $2,900 3B $3,000
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.396 0.288 0.371 1B $2,400 1B $3,200
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.411 0.273 0.294 C $2,400 C $2,700
6 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.284 0.180 0.386 OF $2,400 OF $2,300
7 Tyler Goeddel RIGHT 0.202 0.088 0.239 OF $2,400 OF $2,200
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.242 0.032 0.279 SS $2,500 SS $2,500
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.220 0.000 0.146 P $5,900 P $5,000
Team Averages — 0.303 0.134 0.294 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Texas at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Texas Baltimore
texasmlb Yu Darvish baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX -115 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.279 0 38.1% 29.6% SP vs. Left 0.336 4 30.0% 14.9%
SP vs. Right 0.269 3 26.5% 39.3% SP vs. Right 0.338 4 31.3% 28.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yu Darvish
yu-darvish-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $11,000
FPPG: 37.0 FPPG: 21.1
Pitcher Rating: 87.8 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 91.3 2.42 3.31 38.2% 7.4% 14.2% 40.5% 37.8% 29.7%
2016 6 86.5 2.89 3.09 34.1% 8.3% 13.1% 43.4% 34.2% 32.9%

Darvish has been sharp in his first six starts this season, posting a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34.1%. The only knock on him so far has been his pitch count, but he has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last three starts. Look for him to get closer to that 95 pitch mark tonight against the Orioles. This is a boom or bust matchup, as Baltimore is ranked third in team wOBA and 22nd in team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Darvish has double-digit strikeout potential in this matchup, but there is also some risk involved in targeting a pitcher against the Orioles in Camden Yards.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,400
FPPG: 11.2 FPPG: 5.6
Pitcher Rating: 62.5 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 84.7 2.90 3.86 34.3% 8.6% 13.9% 32.5% 45.0% 37.5%
2016 3 84.7 3.94 3.46 21.8% 7.1% 10.8% 32.3% 45.2% 30.6%

Bundy had a no-hitter going in his last start, but it was eventually broken up by the Rockies. He has yet to throw 90 pitches in any game this season, but he threw a season-high 89 pitches in his last start. He has shown nice strikeout upside and his price on DraftKings is still sitting at a measly $4,400. I originally had Bundy pegged as a viable SP2 in all league formats, but if newly-acquired Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy are in the Rangers’ lineup, I will end up fading Bundy in cash games and using him strictly as a GPP play.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are a top ten offense against right-handed pitching this season. They come into tonight’s game with the tenth highest implied team total on the board, as they square off against Dylan Bundy. The sample size is obviously small, but Bundy has allowed a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. The Rangers’ new acquisitions are tentatively expected to be in the lineup tonight.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.368 0.177 0.288 OF $2,700 2B/3B $4,200
2 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.350 0.177 0.355 OF $3,100 OF $4,600
3 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.310 0.169 0.355 OF $4,500 OF $4,700
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.312 0.147 0.394 3B $3,200 3B $4,500
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.351 0.206 0.371 OF $3,100 OF $4,500
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.348 0.164 0.322 C $3,300 C $4,900
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.359 0.236 0.497 1B $3,700 1B $4,600
8 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.333 0.215 0.402 2B $3,400 2B $4,900
9 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.288 0.087 0.345 SS $3,100 SS $3,600
Team Averages — 0.335 0.175 0.370 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jurickson Profar (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar (DK), Nomar Mazara, Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

The Orioles draw one of the worst matchups on the board, yet they still have the 13th highest team total on the board. Yu Darvish is an elite strikeout pitcher, but if you look at the table above, you will see that he has allowed a 38.1% hard hit contact to left-handed hitters this season (this is a new feature of the Grind Down by the way). The problem is that Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez are both high strikeout guys that swing at too many pitches out of the zone. Despite what Vegas thinks, I will be fading the Orioles completely.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.343 0.211 0.376 OF $3,000 OF $4,300
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.392 0.119 0.332 OF $2,900 OF $2,900
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.382 0.239 0.348 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,400
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.382 0.304 0.170 1B $3,900 1B $3,400
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.347 0.213 0.226 OF $3,500 OF $4,000
6 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.339 0.239 0.274 3B $3,000 1B $3,000
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.321 0.163 0.168 C $2,700 C $2,700
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.362 0.230 0.216 2B $3,000 2B $3,200
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.275 0.113 0.343 SS $2,200 SS $2,600
Team Averages — 0.349 0.203 0.273 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
whitesoxmlb James Shields detroitmlb Anibal Sanchez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -145 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.365 31 31.0% 18.2% SP vs. Left 0.320 19 27.0% 22.3%
SP vs. Right 0.313 22 32.8% 25.2% SP vs. Right 0.378 28 30.7% 18.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,300
FPPG: 23.6 FPPG: 11.1
Pitcher Rating: 38.4 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 101.0 5.56 1.78 11.4% 7.9% 7.9% 36.9% 41.4% 28.8%
2016 21 96.2 5.05 4.68 16.1% 9.7% 9.0% 42.3% 36.1% 32.8%
2015 33 101.1 3.72 3.91 25.1% 9.4% 12.4% 44.9% 34.4% 31.2%

Shields has a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts, which has given White Sox fans hope. While I’m not in the business of crushing dreams, I will say that you shouldn’t expect that type of success to continue. His peripheral statistics during that stretch are actually worst than his season long averages. He is one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball and tonight he has to face the Tigers on the road in Comerica Park. If you are planning on using Shields tonight, feel free to take one of my head-to-head games posted in the lobby.

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,600
FPPG: 16.5 FPPG: 7.2
Pitcher Rating: 53.4 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 93.3 3.50 8.41 28.1% 8.3% 10.7% 35.0% 30.0% 26.2%
2016 16 103.9 4.54 6.56 20.2% 9.6% 9.3% 39.2% 40.5% 31.7%
2015 25 101.3 4.03 4.99 20.9% 7.4% 9.3% 40.0% 39.1% 27.1%

Sanchez has shown some signs of life recently, posting a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.1% in his last four starts. Granted, he has an ERA of 8.41 during that stretch, but at least the peripherals are trending in the right direction. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the White Sox, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 24th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. I may be in the minority here, but I actually like Sanchez more than Dylan Bundy tonight. Not only will his ownership be lower, but the matchup is a lot better as well.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Even though I like Anibal Sanchez as a sneaky SP2 for tournaments, that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid the White Sox offense. They come into the game with the seventh highest implied team total on board. Sanchez is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 47 home runs in his last 41 starts. Give a slight advantage to the right-handed hitters in this lineup, as Sanchez has allowed a .379 wOBA to batters from that side of the plate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.352 0.167 0.340 OF $3,400 OF $4,300
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.287 0.128 0.243 SS $2,900 SS $3,700
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.332 0.139 0.453 OF $3,600 OF $3,800
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.363 0.204 0.270 1B $2,900 1B $3,600
5 Justin Morneau LEFT 0.336 0.145 0.384 1B $2,700 1B $3,200
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.327 0.221 0.324 3B $3,800 3B $3,900
7 J.B. Shuck LEFT 0.263 0.094 0.171 OF $2,100 OF $2,700
8 Dioner Navarro SWITCH 0.258 0.103 0.275 C $2,400 C $2,500
9 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.270 0.127 0.280 SS $2,400 3B/SS $3,300
Team Averages — 0.310 0.148 0.304 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

I’m hoping that everyone is buying into this whole James Shields resurgence thing. I doubt it, but there is a chance that the Tigers’ offense could get overlooked tonight. Shields is having his worst season as a pro, posting a SIERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate of only 16.1%. He has allowed a hard hit contact rate of at least 31% to both left and right-handed hitters and he has given up 53 home runs in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.338 0.154 0.283 2B $3,900 2B $4,300
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.310 0.083 0.309 OF $3,400 OF $3,900
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.409 0.224 0.539 1B $3,600 1B $5,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.299 0.146 0.327 C $3,600 1B $3,600
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.322 0.177 0.247 3B $3,100 3B $3,900
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.205 0.364 OF $2,800 OF $4,100
7 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.330 0.184 0.467 OF $2,000 OF $2,500
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.242 0.070 0.373 C $2,600 C $2,900
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.054 0.274 SS $2,700 SS $2,900
Team Averages — 0.319 0.144 0.354 — — — —

Elite Plays – Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Tampa Bay
kansascitymlb Yordano Ventura tampabaymlb Matt Andriese
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -126 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.326 20 31.8% 21.4% SP vs. Left 0.300 7 32.1% 16.9%
SP vs. Right 0.298 11 29.8% 19.3% SP vs. Right 0.272 5 36.1% 19.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yordano Ventura
yordano-ventura-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,700
FPPG: 24.4 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 55.2 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 86.6 3.77 4.55 19.5% 5.9% 11.1% 55.2% 25.3% 37.5%
2016 20 92.4 4.71 4.88 17.4% 9.3% 8.6% 49.0% 32.7% 32.1%
2015 28 94.7 3.69 4.08 22.5% 8.4% 10.4% 52.2% 27.2% 29.8%

Ventura has been an easy fade in DFS this season. He has been a bit too erratic and his consistency from game to game is non-existent. He currently owns a 4.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.4%. He also has the tough job of following the incredible show put on by Danny Duffy last night. The Rays do present a favorable matchup for Ventura, but there is just as much downside as there is upside.

Matt Andriese
matthew-andriese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $7,900
FPPG: 21.3 FPPG: 11.6
Pitcher Rating: 68.7 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 0 0.0 2.49 2.51 28.9% 3.9% 10.7% 47.1% 32.4% 38.2%
2016 8 95.4 4.02 2.75 19.2% 6.0% 9.9% 47.3% 33.8% 35.9%
2015 8 93.0 4.02 4.11 17.4% 6.4% 8.6% 48.1% 34.8% 32.9%

Andriese has been great out of the bullpen. Over the last month of play, he has a 2.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.9%. Unfortunately, he hasn’t thrown more than 50 pitches in over a month. I expect him to throw more than that tonight, but expecting anything more than five innings is silly. His upside is severely limited by a potential pitch count, making him an easy fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals continue to struggle offensively. They currently average the fourth fewest runs per game this season and they come into tonight’s contest with the seventh lowest implied team total on the board. Matt Andriese has pitched recently and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.267 0.059 0.217 SS $2,500 SS $3,000
2 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.319 0.142 0.385 3B $2,600 3B $3,000
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.318 0.122 0.117 OF $3,700 OF $3,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.365 0.175 0.168 1B $3,300 1B $3,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.354 0.218 0.263 1B $2,900 1B/OF $2,700
6 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.328 0.196 0.201 C $2,700 C $3,300
7 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.328 0.163 0.268 OF $3,000 OF $3,200
8 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.309 0.143 0.386 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
9 Raul Mondesi SWITCH 0.160 0.000 0.240 2B $2,000 SS $2,400
Team Averages — 0.305 0.135 0.249 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays can’t be happy about their performance last night, but there is little that you can do when a pitcher is that locked in. They will look to bounce back tonight against Yordano Ventura, who is having a disappointing season thus far. Ventura has typical splits for a right-handed pitcher, allowing a .326 wOBA and 20 home runs to lefties, while holding righties under a .300 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.321 0.122 0.287 2B $3,500 2B $3,500
2 Brad Miller LEFT 0.340 0.212 0.392 SS $3,500 SS $4,500
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.327 0.191 0.314 3B $3,700 3B $3,600
4 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.351 0.268 0.377 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
5 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.308 0.165 0.186 OF $3,000 OF $3,100
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.317 0.177 0.246 OF $2,700 OF $3,300
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.300 0.204 0.474 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,100
8 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.273 0.159 0.115 2B $2,400 1B/OF $3,200
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.189 0.073 0.132 C $2,100 C $2,400
Team Averages — 0.303 0.175 0.280 — — — —

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -200 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HH% K%
SP vs. Left 0.317 12 28.4% 16.4% SP vs. Left 0.278 16 32.0% 27.8%
SP vs. Right 0.302 15 26.6% 18.7% SP vs. Right 0.281 15 27.4% 27.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,300
FPPG: 24.8 FPPG: 12.0
Pitcher Rating: 43.9 Pitcher Rank: 25
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 100.4 3.52 3.69 21.5% 5.4% 9.8% 52.1% 23.4% 30.5%
2016 13 98.3 4.32 4.54 17.1% 7.5% 9.7% 52.4% 26.4% 27.3%
2015 32 101.1 4.12 3.84 17.7% 7.9% 9.8% 53.4% 26.8% 27.7%

When people hear that Kyle Gibson is on the mound, they immediately want to stack hitters against him. He hasn’t been that bad though, especially in his last five starts. During that stretch, he has a 3.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5%. He also induces a lot of ground balls (52.1%) and his hard hit contact rate is well below 30% on the season. While I’m not trying to talk you into playing Gibson tonight against the Indians, he’s not exactly a gas can that we can automatically load up hitters against.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $10,500
FPPG: 36.1 FPPG: 20.2
Pitcher Rating: 77.8 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 90.6 4.54 2.22 20.4% 9.7% 10.4% 47.4% 42.3% 30.8%
2016 15 91.8 3.69 2.45 23.8% 7.2% 11.6% 51.0% 32.2% 33.2%
2015 30 92.6 2.74 3.63 29.6% 5.9% 14.0% 51.2% 29.8% 27.5%

Carrasco has struggled a bit in his last few starts, similar to his teammate Danny Salazar. I don’t expect the Twins to put up 12 runs against, but there is at least some cause for concern. The upside is always there with Carrasco, although his strikeout rate has dipped 6% this season. Feel free to fire him up in tournaments tonight, but there are safer options in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins put up 12 runs last night against Danny Salazar and the Indians, largely in part thanks to three home runs by Max Kepler. My explanation: this is baseball and random things happen a lot more often than most people realize. I’m not expecting a repeat tonight, as Carlos Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.317 0.194 0.416 2B $3,600 2B $4,200
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.323 0.115 0.378 1B $2,600 1B $3,800
3 Max Kepler LEFT 0.393 0.348 0.498 OF $2,800 OF $4,500
4 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.271 0.148 0.348 1B $3,200 1B $3,400
5 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.357 0.231 0.266 OF $2,700 3B/OF $3,700
6 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.281 0.095 0.339 C $2,300 C $2,500
7 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.308 0.145 0.394 SS $2,300 SS $2,900
8 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.307 0.193 0.378 OF $2,400 OF $3,200
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.269 0.133 0.233 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
Team Averages — 0.314 0.178 0.361 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians are sizable favorites tonight and come into the game with the 11th highest team total on the board. While I don’t mind their matchup against Kyle Gibson, I’m not head over heels about it. Gibson has been in good form over the last month of play and he induces a ground ball rate of 52%. The left-handed hitters in this lineup are worth a look, but I’m having a hard time labeling any of their bats as elite plays.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.349 0.231 0.267 1B $3,800 1B $4,600
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.381 0.191 0.387 2B $3,900 2B $5,200
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.344 0.155 0.323 SS $3,400 SS $4,700
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.309 0.197 0.403 1B $3,900 1B $4,500
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.309 0.126 0.352 P $4,000 3B/OF $4,300
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.319 0.148 0.318 OF $2,700 OF $3,600
7 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.432 0.298 0.516 OF $3,500 OF $4,800
8 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.314 0.155 0.235 OF $2,800 OF $4,200
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.304 0.153 0.166 C $3,000
Team Averages — 0.340 0.184 0.330 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious