MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-11 06:14:38

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Detroit at Washington – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Washington
			Michael Fulmer					Joe Ross
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS -160					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.384	0	20.8%	0.0%	SP vs. Left	0.342	4	16.6%	10.6%
SP vs. Right	0.458	2	20.8%	12.5%	SP vs. Right	0.192	3	26.5%	3.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Michael Fulmer
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$6,700
				FPPG:		25.5	FPPG:		10.3
				Pitcher Rating:		65.9	Pitcher Rank:		10
2016	2	3.56	20.8%	8.7%	6.3%	51.4%	25.7%	25.7%	16

Happy Tuesday everyone, we have a full 15-game slate on tap tonight. It should be a great night of baseball, as there is a game in Coors Field as well as some tremendous pitching options.

We start the breakdown with the Tigers’ top pitching prospect, Michael Fulmer. In his first two career starts, he has a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.8% and a swinging strike rate of 8.7%. He has thrown 92 and 93 pitches in his two starts and the Tigers could potentially loosen the reigns a bit moving forward if he is pitching well. There will be a time to jump on Fulmer, but tonight isn’t that time. He is pitching on the road and he comes into the game as a large underdog.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Joe Ross
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,700
				FPPG:		25.9	FPPG:		13.9
				Pitcher Rating:		75.5	Pitcher Rank:		5
2016	5	4.05	20.2%	9.9%	7.9%	44.3%	30.4%	23.8%	25
2015	13	3.66	22.0%	11.9%	6.7%	49.8%	33.8%	30.2%	13

Ross is coming off of a nine-strikeout performance against the Cubs in Chicago. He hasn’t been in as good of form as a season ago, but a 4.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 20% is nothing to scoff at. His swinging strike rate (9.9%) is above the league average. While the Tigers hit right-handed pitching well as a team, they also strike out at the sixth highest rate. Ross also gets to face them in a National League ballpark that favors pitchers over offensive production.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Tigers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.37 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.65 (24 of 30)

The Tigers’ offense has been fairly cold recently, although they did get to Stephen Strasburg in last night’s win over the Nationals. They come into tonight’s contest with the seventh lowest team total on the board. Their matchup against Joe Ross does not suit their lineup, as Ross gives up a much higher wOBA and ISO to left-handed hitters (.342) than he does to right-handed hitters (.192). Victor Martinez will not be in the lineup tonight, as there is no designated hitter in the National League.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.333	0.136	0.327	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,300
2	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.352	0.224	0.248	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.402	0.189	0.379	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,200
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.313	0.159	0.516	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,600
5	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.349	0.209	0.283	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.265	0.082	0.135	C	$2,000	C	$2,500
7	Anthony Gose	LEFT	0.316	0.128	0.364	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.285	0.049	0.181	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,700
9	Michael Fulmer	RIGHT				P	$6,100	P	$6,700
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.147	0.304	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Nationals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (15 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.39 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (11 of 30)

The Nationals have been a mediocre offense through the first month of the season, averaging 4.39 runs per game. They draw a decent matchup against rookie Michael Fulmer, who is only making his third career start. The Nationals’ team total doesn’t jump off the page at us, but they do have the 11th highest on the board. The left-handed bats of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are my favorite targets from Washington.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Revere	LEFT	0.322	0.079	0.244	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.296	0.101	0.254	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.468	0.354	0.319	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,000
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.285	0.143	0.240	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.364	0.207	0.470	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.282	0.138	0.261	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.285	0.137	0.480	C	$3,100	C	$3,400
8	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.300	0.160	0.299	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,800
9	Joe Ross	RIGHT	0.126	0.032	0.138	P	$8,100	P	$7,700
	Team Averages	—	0.303	0.150	0.301	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					NY Yankees
			Kris Medlen					Masahiro Tanaka
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -165					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.329	4	15.3%	13.1%	SP vs. Left	0.288	14	24.1%	4.3%
SP vs. Right	0.320	4	18.2%	6.7%	SP vs. Right	0.268	13	21.6%	4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Kris Medlen
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$5,900
				FPPG:		16.4	FPPG:		6.3
				Pitcher Rating:		40.0	Pitcher Rank:		24
2016	5	5.58	17.1%	9.0%	16.2%	48.6%	31.4%	32.9%	10
2015	8	4.28	16.5%	8.6%	7.4%	49.7%	33.1%	27.3%	12

Do you remember when we said that regression was coming for Chris Young last night?

The Yankees will look to tee off on another Royals’ starter tonight. Medlen has a 5.58 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 17.1% in his first five starts of the season. He currently has a 16.2% walk rate with a 32.9% hard hit contact rate. That is not a combination that we are looking for from a pitcher. Even though the Yankees’ offense is a bit banged up, I want no part of Medlen tonight in Yankee Stadium.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Masahiro Tanaka
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$9,800	Salary:		$9,800
				FPPG:		34.2	FPPG:		20.1
				Pitcher Rating:		76.2	Pitcher Rank:		4
2016	6	2.94	22.9%	13.7%	4.6%	59.6%	23.9%	25.5%	9
2015	24	3.36	22.8%	11.4%	4.4%	47.0%	33.8%	31.1%	1

Tanaka is starting to round into form. In his first six starts of the season, he has a 2.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.9% and a walk rate of only 4.6%. The most glaring statistic from the table above is his swinging strike rate (13.7%), which is a career high. In past seasons, we have purposely avoided pitchers against the Royals, but they are ranked 28th in runs scored per game this season. This is the time to target pitchers against Kansas City. As a sizable favorite at home, Tanaka is in play in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Royals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.40 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.37 (29 of 30)

The Royals’ offense continues to struggle. They are only averaging 3.40 runs per game and they come into tonight’s game with the second lowest run total on the board. They inspire little confidence at this point of the season and a matchup against Masahiro Tanaka doesn’t help. Over the last two seasons, Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.269	0.062	0.285	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,000
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.325	0.119	0.309	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
3	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.386	0.189	0.476	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.352	0.228	0.164	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,000
5	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.339	0.151	0.314	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000
6	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.329	0.195	0.226	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.274	0.147	0.221	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,400
8	Christian Colon	RIGHT	0.311	0.063	0.266	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,300
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.297	0.128	0.218	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.142	0.275	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Yankees Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.322 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.48 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.13 (16 of 30)

The Yankees draw a better matchup than their team total would indicate. Kris Medlen has not pitched well recently and he has allowed a .320+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Medlen doesn’t produce an elite ground ball rate and he doesn’t strike many hitters out. The Yankees should be able to put the ball in play, which is really all you can ask for in Yankee Stadium. If I had to rank all of the offenses tonight, they would crack the top ten.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.330	0.154	0.312	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.282	0.125	0.263	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400
3	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.330	0.202	0.316	C	$3,000	C	$3,600
4	Mark Teixeira	SWITCH	0.378	0.301	0.201	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,800
5	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.343	0.190	0.257	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400
6	Dustin Ackley	LEFT	0.299	0.193	0.183	OF	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,200
7	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.301	0.120	0.182	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,900
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.293	0.094	0.187	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,100
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.381	0.130	0.222	2B	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.168	0.236	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Carlos Beltran

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee at Miami – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Miami
			Zach Davies					Adam Conley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -160					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.317	2	18.2%	13.1%	SP vs. Left	0.378	1	18.3%	14.1%
SP vs. Right	0.353	2	14.4%	9.1%	SP vs. Right	0.288	9	23.5%	7.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Zach Davies
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,100
				FPPG:		13.0	FPPG:		3.9
				Pitcher Rating:		32.4	Pitcher Rank:		28
2016	4	5.08	14.1%	7.8%	10.9%	48.4%	28.1%	34.3%	3
2015	6	4.34	17.3%	10.0%	10.8%	57.6%	21.2%	32.0%	6

Davies is near the top of the list of pitchers to target hitters against tonight. In his first four starts of the season, he has a 5.08 SIERA with a walk rate (10.9%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (14.1%). He doesn’t give up a lot of fly balls, but when he does, batters usually make great contact (34.3% hard hit rate). He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog against a Marlins’ team that is ranked third in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Adam Conley
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$7,500
				FPPG:		31.7	FPPG:		17.4
				Pitcher Rating:		73.9	Pitcher Rank:		6
2016	6	3.74	26.2%	10.8%	10.0%	38.8%	40.0%	36.6%	14
2015	11	3.98	21.0%	10.1%	7.5%	40.6%	40.6%	21.7%	23

Conley has been a tremendous source of value in the first month of the season. In his first six starts, he has a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.2%. With a swinging strike rate of 10.8%, he may be able to sustain close to a 25% strikeout rate. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Run support should also be in his favor with Zach Davies pitching opposite him. Conley is a strong play in all league formats, especially on DraftKings where he is priced at only $7,500.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Brewers Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.292 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.61 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.90 (19 of 30)

The Brewers were dominated by Jose Fernandez last night. While Adam Conley doesn’t exactly have the same type of velocity as Fernandez, he can certainly generate some swings and misses with his fastball, slider, changeup combination. The fact that Conley has had reverse-splits so far in his career also hurts the Brewers’ appeal, as six of their projected starters bat from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alex Presley	LEFT	0.378	0.000	0.345	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,000
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.347	0.168	0.341	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,100
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.418	0.261	0.419	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,600
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.273	0.089	0.498	C	$3,500	C	$3,400
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.331	0.217	0.377	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,900
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.269	0.092	0.404	3B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,600
7	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.290	0.186	0.385	3B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,300
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.196	0.000	0.315	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.110	0.000	0.000	P	$5,900	P	$6,100
	Team Averages	—	0.290	0.113	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun

Stackability – NONE

Miami

Marlins Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.121 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.20 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.60 (8 of 30)

The Marlins may not have the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball, but they seem to love playing at home. They come into tonight’s game with the eighth highest team total on the board. They draw a terrific matchup against Zach Davies, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .317 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Giancarlo Stanton is obviously a strong play tonight, but so are the value bats in this Marlins’ lineup.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.382	0.242	0.426	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,300
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.321	0.096	0.432	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.370	0.151	0.382	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.381	0.301	0.438	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,100
5	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.358	0.245	0.479	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,300
6	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.288	0.122	0.455	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800
7	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.295	0.132	0.365	C	$2,700	C	$3,100
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.270	0.088	0.277	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,600
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.136	0.000	0.000	P	$8,400	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.153	0.362	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays -Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado, Christian Yelich

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Oakland at Boston – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Oakland					Boston
			Sean Manaea					Sean O’Sullivan
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -120					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.205	0	38.5%	7.7%	SP vs. Left	0.473	12	8.9%	8.9%
SP vs. Right	0.430	2	12.1%	12.1%	SP vs. Right	0.337	4	12.3%	3.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Sean Manaea
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$5,600
				FPPG:		16.5	FPPG:		7.2
				Pitcher Rating:		41.0	Pitcher Rank:		22
2016	2	4.44	19.6%	9.3%	10.9%	53.3%	33.3%	32.3%	19

Manaea has had some great success in the minor leagues, but is only making his third career major league start tonight. His first two haven’t been terrible, posting a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.6%. While we should keep an eye on him moving forward, he is an easy fade tonight against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. We saw the type of damage that Boston can do against a quality pitcher like Sonny Gray last night.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Sean O’Sullivan
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$5,100
				FPPG:		3.0	FPPG:		1.1
				Pitcher Rating:		29.2	Pitcher Rank:		29
2016	0	3.51	20.0%	15.8%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	50.0%	7
2015	13	5.18	10.7%	6.2%	6.1%	41.5%	39.5%	32.3%	4

O’Sullivan made 13 starts in 2015, posting a ridiculously low strikeout rate of 10.7%. Even though he is a favorite tonight, he is not a recommended fantasy option. His upside is extremely limited and it doesn’t help that the A’s have the seventh lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This game has the second highest over/under on the board and both pitchers can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Athletics Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.66 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.63 (7 of 30)

The A’s may be small underdogs tonight, but they draw a favorable matchup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. They come into this game with the seventh highest team total on the board. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play from Oakland. In his career, Sean O’Sullivan has allowed a .390 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.301	0.093	0.261	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,600
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.288	0.116	0.313	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,400
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.365	0.191	0.379	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.350	0.254	0.363	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
5	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.337	0.205	0.174	3B	$2,100	2B/3B	$3,400
6	Billy Butler	RIGHT	0.307	0.132	0.134	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,800
7	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.321	0.108	0.385	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,500
8	Josh Phegley	RIGHT	0.307	0.186	0.196	C	$2,100	C	$3,500
9	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.290	0.148	0.358	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.159	0.285	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan

Stackability – GPP

Boston

Red Sox Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.03 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.87 (3 of 30)

The Red Sox are coming off of a monster outing against Sonny Gray and the A’s last night. They will look to keep the momentum rolling tonight, as they face the young southpaw – Sean Manaea. The right-handed bats of Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, and Chris Young all sport at least a .325 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. If you decide to stack the Red Sox, don’t be afraid to throw Big Papi into the mix.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.338	0.175	0.243	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.327	0.165	0.371	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,400
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.396	0.117	0.419	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,500
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.309	0.198	0.515	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,400
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.294	0.208	0.386	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400
6	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.407	0.249	0.344	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300
7	Josh Rutledge	RIGHT	0.406	0.100	0.576			2B	$2,600
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.252	0.083	0.273	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.385	0.207	0.524	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.167	0.406	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Atlanta
			Adam Morgan					Matt Wisler
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL -112					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.286	3	12.9%	7.1%	SP vs. Left	0.391	13	10.8%	11.5%
SP vs. Right	0.348	12	15.3%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.265	7	20.3%	4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Adam Morgan
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,500
				FPPG:		18.0	FPPG:		8.9
				Pitcher Rating:		50.9	Pitcher Rank:		19
2016	2	3.95	22.0%	14.4%	7.3%	34.5%	41.4%	41.4%	29
2015	15	4.94	13.9%	9.7%	4.8%	30.6%	49.3%	29.8%	11

Morgan would be getting more attention if he played for a better team. Through his first two starts of the season, he has a 3.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a swinging strike rate of 14.4%. The sample size is obviously small and we can’t expect him to maintain that SS%, but he is certainly worth a look in tournaments tonight against the Braves. Atlanta is one of the worst offenses in baseball and they have the second highest strikeout rate of any team against left-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	SS%	BB%	GB%	FB%	HH%	O-K%
Matt Wisler
				FanDuel			DraftKings
				Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$7,900
				FPPG:		24.2	FPPG:		13.5
				Pitcher Rating:		52.1	Pitcher Rank:		18
2016	5	4.44	17.4%	6.6%	6.8%	39.6%	45.8%	37.1%	20
2015	19	4.98	15.1%	8.1%	8.4%	33.6%	43.2%	28.2%	21

Wisler is coming off of possibly his best start ever. He pitched eight shutout innings against the Mets in New York. Even with that outing, he still has a 4.44 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 17.4%. Those numbers may not leap off the page, but he gets the advantage of pitching at home against a lifeless Phillies’ offense tonight. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia has the lowest team wOBA (.297) of any team against right-handed pitching. Both of the pitchers in this game are viable punt plays tonight at pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Phillies Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.25 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.43 (27 of 30)

The Phillies are small underdogs tonight, they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and they have the fourth lowest team total on the board. There isn’t a ton to love about their fantasy prospects tonight. The one positive in this matchup is that Matt Wisler has allowed a .391 wOBA and 13 home runs to left-handed hitters in his last 24 major league starts.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.130	0.398	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,500
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.296	0.078	0.293	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,600
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.337	0.189	0.211	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.332	0.242	0.314	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,400
5	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.242	0.063	0.370	C	$2,700	C	$2,400
6	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.290	0.112	0.221	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,900
7	David Lough	LEFT	0.255	0.119	0.302	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,100
8	Adam Morgan	LEFT	0.085	0.040	0.000	P	$6,100	P	$5,500
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.254	0.117	0.240	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.271	0.121	0.261	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta

Braves Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.284 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.107 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.00 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (26 of 30)

The Braves may be small favorites tonight, but the over/under is so low that it really doesn’t make a big difference. Their team total is set at 3.57 runs, which is the fifth lowest on the board. Atlanta is ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. However, Adam Morgan has allowed a .348 wOBA and 12 home runs to right-handed hitters during that same time period.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.286	0.056	0.315	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.232	0.047	0.157	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.322	0.117	0.473	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700
4	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.311	0.077	0.184	C	$2,200	C	$2,800
5	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.292	0.098	0.229	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,400
6	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.241	0.043	0.265	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700
7	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.261	0.101		2B	$2,000	3B	$2,500
8	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.284	0.132	0.124	2B	$2,000	2B/3B	$2,700
9	Matt Wisler	RIGHT	0.059	0.000	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.254	0.075	0.218	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 10th

Detroit at Washington – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Carlos Beltran

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee at Miami – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Ryan Braun

Stackability – NONE

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays -Derek Dietrich, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Martin Prado, Christian Yelich

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Oakland at Boston – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Stephen Vogt

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan

Stackability – GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Young

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Ryan Howard

Stackability – NONE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Tyler Flowers, Jeff Francoeur

Stackability – NONE

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