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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-16 01:30:07

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Colorado at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Colorado San Diego
coloradomlb German Marquez sandiegomlb Jordan Lyles
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SD -100 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.333 27.9% 11.4% 19.3% 39.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.322 37.0% 11.9% 21.4% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.399 0.315 32.8% 9.6% 22.3% 50.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.242 0.295 31.0% 5.2% 22.4% 38.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.27 4.39 21.0% 7.0% 45.2% 34.5% 17.7%
2018 8 4.48 5.35 20.9% 10.4% 45.0% 30.3% 19.7%
L14 2 3.91 5.91 21.2% 5.8% 43.2% 32.4% 21.6%

We have a single early game on the schedule today. I received a few questions about the single-game slate yesterday, so figured I would cover this one quickly. Marquez has been serviceable this season, posting a 4.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. The main reason to like him here isn’t his skillset, it’s his matchup. The Padres’ projected lineup has a .270 xwOBA and a 33% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Marquez is a fade in the all-day slate, but an excellent option in the single-game slate.

Jordan Lyles
jordan-lyles-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 5 4.37 7.75 17.0% 6.8% 49.4% 37.0% 19.3%
2018 1 3.94 3.28 22.0% 8.0% 37.7% 33.3% 14.5%
L14 1 3.81 1.35 24.0% 4.0% 22.2% 33.3% 11.1%

Lyles pitched well in his first start of the season, striking out six batters in five innings of work against the Cardinals. While he has pitched well as a reliever this season, we have a long track record of him struggling as a starter. If I’m playing the single-game slate, I’m siding with German Marquez and hoping that the masses play Lyles. The Rockies aren’t great on the road and they strikeout at a high rate against right-handed pitching. This all plays into Lyles and his hopefully high ownership.

Quick Breakdown: I’ve been around DFS long enough to remember some terrible years from Lyles. It will take more than one start to convince me.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies draw an exploitable matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has allowed a .322 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. He doesn’t have great control and historically has been a low-strikeout pitcher. The top targets here are Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, and Carlos Gonzalez. All three bat from the left side and have good power numbers against right-handed pitching in their respective careers. For the all-day slate, this is a game to avoid completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.388 0.400 0.302 34.9% 14.7% 22.5% 39.7% OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 David Dahl LEFT 0.368 0.363 0.257 32.0% 10.0% 25.0% 48.0% OF $2,700 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.376 0.358 0.210 37.3% 11.8% 24.7% 32.2% 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.299 0.239 0.283 26.1% 6.1% 24.2% 34.8% OF $2,700 N/A N/A
5 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.375 0.415 0.228 46.8% 9.3% 29.9% 29.5% SS $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.256 0.314 0.165 32.3% 2.1% 31.6% 66.1% 1B $2,600 N/A N/A
7 Daniel Castro RIGHT 0.133 0.128 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 5.3% 72.2% 2B $2,000 N/A N/A
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.355 0.382 0.226 37.1% 8.2% 31.1% 35.3% C $2,300 N/A N/A
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.240 0.188 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% P $6,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego

The Padres have one of the worst offenses in baseball, especially when they are facing right-handed pitching. As mentioned above, their projected lineup has a .270 xwOBA and a 33% strikeout rate against righties this season. From a splits perspective, German Marquez has allowed a higher xwOBA lefties (.333) and a higher hard contact rate to righties (33%) over the last two seasons. For the single-game slate only, we can look at Eric Hosmer and Franchy Cordero.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.291 0.294 0.189 18.2% 11.9% 9.5% 66.7% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.335 0.418 0.190 30.1% 12.3% 23.7% 54.8% 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.262 0.300 0.066 36.1% 6.9% 26.7% 65.1% 2B $2,200 N/A N/A
4 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.423 0.369 0.236 53.2% 14.3% 29.8% 44.7% OF $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.262 0.189 0.091 25.0% 8.0% 28.4% 32.7% 3B $2,800 N/A N/A
6 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.342 0.312 0.286 41.7% 16.0% 36.0% 33.3% C $2,400 N/A N/A
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.246 0.241 0.041 38.7% 11.4% 21.9% 53.4% SS $2,200 N/A N/A
8 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.271 0.267 0.095 32.4% 4.3% 19.6% 49.3% OF $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Jordan Lyles RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Franchy Cordero

Secondary Plays – Travis Jankowski, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Pittsburgh
whitesoxmlb Reynaldo Lopez pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.340 0.375 35.6% 12.4% 13.6% 27.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.353 23.3% 12.2% 6.7% 40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.238 0.370 31.0% 8.9% 19.8% 32.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.348 33.9% 9.6% 24.5% 35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Reynaldo Lopez
reynaldo-lopez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.44 4.72 14.5% 6.8% 30.2% 27.8% 17.9%
2018 7 5.33 2.44 17.0% 10.4% 30.0% 33.1% 25.4%
L14 2 6.20 3.86 10.9% 7.3% 22.2% 31.1% 31.1%

Lopez has a low ERA, but we know better than to blindly trust that statistic. His peripheral numbers suggest some serious regression. In seven starts, he owns a 5.33 SIERA with a walk rate of 10% and a ground ball rate of only 30%. He does induce a lot of soft contact, but that’s not a reason to target him in DFS. He is a low-strikeout pitcher that draws a low-strikeout matchup against the Pirates, whose lineup has an average k-rate of 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lopez in all formats.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.63 4.07 18.2% 8.1% 48.0% 28.9% 21.8%
2018 8 5.33 3.13 15.8% 10.9% 38.2% 28.2% 23.0%
L14 2 4.90 5.91 13.6% 6.8% 47.1% 31.4% 14.3%

Williams is basically a carbon-copy of Reynaldo Lopez. His peripheral statistics don’t support his low ERA and we can expect some serious regression for both moving forward. In eight starts this season, Williams owns a 5.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 11%. Williams has the better strikeout matchup of the two starters in this game, but the White Sox have actually fared well against right-handed pitching this season. Their projected lineup has a .362 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even as a favorite in a pitcher’s park, Williams is an easy fade in this 14-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have activated Yoan Moncada from the DL, which should provide a big boost to their lineup. They have hit right-handed pitching well this season and draw an exploitable matchup against Trevor Williams, who has allowed a .353 xwOBA to lefties and a .348 xwOBA to righties this season. Moncada is an excellent one-off target, as he provides both speed and power (.442 xwOBA against righties this season). Jose Abreu, Nick Delmonico, and Matt Davidson aren’t terrible plays, but will get lost in the shuffle in such a large slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.442 0.326 0.305 49.0% 12.6% 35.8% 22.9% 2B $3,600 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.288 0.293 0.154 21.5% 8.7% 22.6% 46.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,300
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.436 0.408 0.215 38.3% 7.4% 11.6% 42.6% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 1B $8,500
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.347 0.361 0.090 27.5% 10.8% 19.6% 42.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.454 0.445 0.298 47.3% 14.7% 30.4% 38.2% 3B $3,600 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.340 0.256 0.271 41.0% 4.8% 31.7% 48.7% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,700
7 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.371 0.430 0.326 34.4% 2.3% 25.0% 40.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
8 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.219 0.325 0.018 13.2% 9.1% 31.8% 44.4% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 CF $5,800
9 Reynaldo Lopez RIGHT P $7,600 P $7,500 P $14,600

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Nick Delmonico, Matt Davidson

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are a lot like the Royals from the last few seasons. They put the ball in play and they manufacture runs. With a lack of home run upside, the Pirates scoring seven runs is a lot different than the Yankees scoring seven runs. This limits the appeal of a stack, even though their matchup against Reynaldo Lopez is enticing. As mentioned earlier, Lopez is due for some serious regression. He has allowed a .375 xwOBA to lefties and a .370 xwOBA to righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.285 0.302 0.086 23.1% 5.9% 15.8% 56.6% OF $2,100 2B/OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,700
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.382 0.348 0.254 36.4% 12.7% 20.9% 33.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.290 0.278 0.141 22.3% 7.9% 18.6% 47.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 CF $8,900
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.321 0.364 0.125 32.6% 9.7% 19.4% 51.1% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 1B $6,700
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.369 0.360 0.225 32.7% 5.4% 9.2% 26.6% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 LF $7,300
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.444 0.515 0.247 43.8% 11.9% 16.5% 32.9% C $3,300 C $3,600 C $7,600
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.395 0.434 0.162 36.1% 10.0% 16.7% 39.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,400 3B $6,900
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.306 0.335 0.152 25.6% 6.1% 21.7% 34.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.069 0.041 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 46.2% 71.4% P $6,600 P $7,200 P $14,900

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Washington
nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-117 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.296 28.1% 4.0% 20.0% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.213 0.213 22.6% 4.1% 32.7% 51.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.327 38.7% 6.1% 26.1% 44.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.312 33.3% 11.8% 23.6% 52.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,100
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5%
2018 8 3.64 4.66 23.7% 5.3% 43.8% 34.1% 18.9%
L14 2 4.14 5.56 16.7% 4.2% 45.9% 29.7% 8.1%

Tanaka has a high ERA, but his advanced statistics suggest some positive regression. While I’d like this to be the case, his numbers are eerily similar to last season. At this point, he might be a pitcher that is always going to give up more home runs per fly ball than the league average. It’s not all bad news though, as his high ERA often leads to a low salary. He gets to play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark tonight and he gets to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup. If we are looking at upside per salary dollar, he is one of the best pitching options on the board.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is an elite tournament play and viable in cash games as an SP2.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.41 2.96 22.7% 9.6% 45.8% 29.3% 21.9%
2018 8 3.79 2.22 25.9% 9.8% 52.4% 30.7% 16.9%
L14 2 3.37 0.82 28.9% 11.1% 66.7% 29.6% 37.0%

Gonzalez likes to nibble around the corners of the plate and it drives me crazy. Even when he faces the opposing pitcher, he’ll end up with six or seven-pitch at-bats. Patient offenses can really drive up his pitch count, which is why we rarely see him pitch more than six innings. With so much right-handed power in the Yankees’ lineup, I will take a hard pass on Gonzalez tonight.

Quick Breakdown: The price is enticing and the Yankees do strikeout often against southpaws, but I’m worried about his floor in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees’ matchup against Gio Gonzalez is far from perfect. While I’m not the biggest Gio fan out there, he isn’t a pitcher that I stack against. He has a high ground ball rate, an above-average strikeout rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. The Yankees lose the use of the DH in this series and are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez are all excellent one-off targets for tournaments, but none of them stand out as core plays in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.298 0.341 0.000 18.2% 10.8% 29.7% 47.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,300
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.408 0.382 0.257 42.1% 25.5% 34.0% 26.3% OF $5,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,600
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.290 0.245 0.195 22.2% 10.9% 10.9% 38.2% SS $4,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,600
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.588 0.395 0.714 74.1% 7.7% 23.1% 33.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.395 0.427 0.367 33.3% 14.3% 25.7% 57.1% C $4,100 C $4,400 C $8,100
6 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.358 0.109 0.167 28.6% 11.8% 26.5% 42.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.262 0.308 0.097 20.0% 6.1% 18.2% 52.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,700
8 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.326 0.407 0.000 25.0% 5.9% 23.5% 41.7% 2B $3,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,200
9 Masahiro Tanaka RIGHT P $8,300 P $8,400 P $16,100

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP), Gary Sanchez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge (Cash), Giancarlo Stanton (Cash), Gary Sanchez (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Masahiro Tanaka is still a good pitcher. He has a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate in the mid-20s. He has good control and he can show up and dominate at times. His biggest weakness is the long ball. A 17% home run to fly ball ratio is unsustainable for most pitchers, but Tanaka’s career average is 16%. He gave up 35 home runs last year and has already allowed eight this season. This all brings me to my point — we can chase the home run upside through one-offs rather than a full Nationals’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.362 0.383 0.181 39.6% 14.0% 18.4% 54.4% SS $3,800 SS $4,500 IF/OF $9,200
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.505 0.488 0.398 48.7% 23.2% 14.4% 33.3% OF $4,500 OF $5,300 RF $9,700
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.402 0.503 0.169 32.8% 13.3% 9.3% 36.8% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,500
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.459 0.472 0.392 45.8% 15.8% 21.1% 28.8% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,500
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.324 0.323 0.184 39.3% 2.8% 18.3% 47.6% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
6 Andrew Stevenson LEFT 0.283 0.259 0.029 26.9% 5.0% 27.5% 45.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $5,500
7 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.296 0.377 0.075 28.6% 15.4% 16.9% 38.1% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,500
8 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.066 0.121 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 63.6% 100.0% P $8,900 P $8,700 P $17,100
9 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.267 0.219 0.058 25.7% 10.3% 29.3% 53.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $5,900

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash), Matt Adams (Cash), Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Baltimore
philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta baltimoremlb Andrew Cashner
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-105 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.365 0.429 29.3% 8.6% 18.5% 41.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.393 27.9% 11.3% 25.8% 31.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.252 0.254 19.2% 3.6% 32.5% 45.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.409 35.5% 9.8% 14.7% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.32 6.02 24.0% 9.8% 43.8% 35.5% 15.9%
2018 8 3.53 4.15 25.6% 6.1% 43.4% 24.6% 17.3%
L14 2 4.00 9.00 26.7% 10.0% 33.3% 31.6% 15.8%

Pivetta has been a mixed bag so far this season. He’s had a couple of really good outings and a couple of really bad outings. With a move to the American League and a matchup against the Orioles in Camden Yards, I’m not getting my hopes up. The one positive for Pivetta is that he has held righties to a .254 xwOBA with a 33% strikeout rate this season. If you scroll down to the Orioles’ projected lineup below, there are five right-handed hitters including the first four in the order.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta will have the platoon advantage in this matchup, but the risk may outweigh the potential reward.

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.52 3.40 12.2% 9.1% 48.6% 28.4% 18.5%
2018 8 4.75 4.84 20.1% 10.6% 38.8% 32.1% 16.1%
L14 2 5.14 5.06 16.0% 10.0% 41.7% 35.1% 29.7%

Cashner is not a good major league pitcher, but the Orioles continue to roll him out there every five days. I suppose it’s easy to throw Cashner on the mound when another one of your starters is Chris Tillman. In eight starts this season, Cashner owns a 4.75 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that doesn’t generate soft contact. He’s an easy fade against the Phillies in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: With the Phillies being one of my favorite stacks, Cashner is nowhere near my radar.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Andrew Cashner has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons, but he ruined a lot of stacks in 2017. He pitched out of so many jams thanks to a high ground ball rate against right-handed hitters. He is no longer generating that high ground ball rate, so we can feel good about stacking against him. Cashner has allowed a .393 xwOBA to lefties and a .409 xwOBA to righties this season. As you can see from the Ballpark Ratings graph above, this is a hitter-friendly ballpark that really favors right-handed power.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.333 0.367 0.156 30.3% 14.1% 26.6% 45.2% 2B $3,800 2B $3,900 2B $7,200
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.322 0.373 0.130 31.5% 13.3% 25.6% 53.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,700
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.388 0.478 0.189 26.3% 11.0% 14.7% 42.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,100
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.408 0.322 0.229 37.1% 15.4% 30.8% 25.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,000
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.395 0.381 0.260 34.5% 14.9% 13.2% 37.2% 1B $3,900 1B $4,400 1B $8,100
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.370 0.400 0.225 25.3% 6.3% 15.6% 52.0% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,300
7 Nick Williams LEFT 0.351 0.425 0.127 25.0% 9.9% 26.8% 52.3% OF $2,400 OF $2,700 LF $5,800
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.326 0.268 0.119 30.7% 6.5% 24.7% 33.9% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,800
9 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.285 0.325 0.136 38.2% 4.3% 45.7% 58.8% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,900

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles look like a good stack on paper, but they aren’t exactly equipped to take advantage of a matchup against Nick Pivetta. For the season, Pivetta has allowed a .429 xwOBA to lefties, while holding righties to a .254 xwOBA. This doesn’t mean that we can’t play the likes of Trey Mancini and Manny Machado, but they are better tournament fliers than core targets. The matchup sets up the best for Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez, who are both boom or bust tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.426 0.429 0.130 38.1% 9.8% 21.3% 44.0% OF $3,400 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,700
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.374 0.323 0.228 39.2% 2.3% 21.1% 39.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,600
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.422 0.391 0.322 33.0% 12.3% 15.2% 38.0% SS $4,900 SS $5,200 3B $9,900
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.239 0.324 0.211 20.4% 0.0% 24.7% 49.1% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 2B $7,700
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.298 0.315 0.048 27.5% 9.6% 30.4% 49.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.412 0.392 0.158 50.0% 2.6% 15.4% 43.8% OF $3,200 1B/OF $3,700 DH $7,300
7 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.395 0.366 0.263 37.0% 12.6% 25.3% 35.2% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,300
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.272 0.273 0.082 25.7% 13.8% 24.1% 54.3% 2B $2,300 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,800
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.275 0.323 0.119 35.0% 6.7% 36.0% 51.3% C $2,100 C $3,300 C $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin detroitmlb Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-122 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.514 0.495 46.0% 5.0% 8.3% 26.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.147 0.281 16.7% 7.5% 32.5% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.422 0.461 42.6% 4.5% 13.4% 24.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.409 31.8% 14.2% 13.3% 47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,700
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.17 4.98 18.6% 2.4% 39.6% 36.2% 14.0%
2018 5 5.69 8.06 11.0% 4.7% 25.0% 44.2% 15.4%
L14 1 5.73 5.14 12.5% 6.3% 20.0% 40.0% 20.0%

Tomlin is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. In five starts this season, he owns a 5.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 11% and a hard contact rate that is nearly 20 points higher than his ground ball rate. In other words, he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He’s the perfect type of pitcher to stack against.

Quick Breakdown: When you pitch for the Indians and are barely favored over Francisco Liriano and the Tigers, you know something is wrong.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $13,000
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.09 5.66 19.4% 12.1% 44.9% 29.6% 16.8%
2018 7 5.15 3.35 18.1% 12.5% 47.7% 28.4% 18.4%
L14 2 5.04 3.27 18.6% 14.0% 59.3% 14.8% 14.8%

Liriano has a low ERA this season, but we know better than to trust a single statistic that is nearly as old as the dinosaurs. In seven starts, he owns a 5.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 13%. Until he improves his command and he starts generating more strikeouts, he will remain an easy fade in all formats. A matchup against the Indians is not helping his cause.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians were one of the top stacks last night and let many DFS players down. Perhaps that will help lower their ownership tonight, despite an exploitable matchup against Francisco Liriano. While he is tough on lefties, he has allowed a .409 xwOBA and a 14% walk rate to righties this season. An Indians’ stack is fully in play here, as they have five right-handed hitters in their lineup with at least a .350+ xwOBA against southpaws. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are elite plays in all formats, including cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.405 0.491 0.237 51.0% 6.3% 15.6% 43.8% SS $4,800 SS $5,200 SS $9,800
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.360 0.417 0.098 28.2% 2.3% 4.7% 43.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 LF $8,100
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.446 0.470 0.294 45.7% 7.3% 9.1% 28.9% 3B $4,500 3B $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.362 0.380 0.196 37.5% 13.2% 26.4% 28.1% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $9,200
5 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.352 0.256 0.233 31.4% 10.4% 16.7% 37.1% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
6 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.429 0.350 0.243 54.2% 7.3% 31.7% 20.8% C $2,900 C $3,600 C $7,500
7 Erik Gonzalez RIGHT 0.279 0.348 0.083 42.9% 14.3% 35.7% 57.1% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,300
8 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.311 0.199 0.000 66.7% 0.0% 40.0% 66.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,300
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.294 0.259 0.000 46.4% 5.6% 16.7% 46.4% OF $2,400 OF $2,700 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley (GPP), Brandon Guyer, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are expected to be without Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Jeimer Candelario, and Leonys Martin tonight. They are missing four of their best five hitters and are still one of my favorite stacks of the slate. That says more about their matchup against Josh Tomlin that it does about the Tigers’ depth. You aren’t going to believe these numbers — on the season, Tomlin has allowed a .460+ xwOBA and a 43%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Tigers’ stack costs less than nothing, which allows you to spend up on pitching and on your one-off targets. You can also use the Tigers’ bats as cheap lineup fillers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.240 0.355 0.108 10.0% 9.3% 20.9% 26.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $5,700
2 Pete Kozma RIGHT 0.394 0.348 0.500 42.9% 0.0% 12.5% 28.6% SS $2,600 2B/SS $2,600 SS $4,800
3 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.371 0.349 0.124 46.9% 8.9% 9.9% 37.0% C $2,400 1B $3,100 1B $5,500
4 James McCann RIGHT 0.313 0.349 0.078 32.9% 4.1% 16.5% 40.8% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $5,600
5 John Hicks RIGHT 0.326 0.417 0.250 50.0% 1.8% 31.6% 27.8% C $2,700 1B/C $3,400 C $6,700
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.348 0.273 0.193 38.3% 3.4% 27.0% 40.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
7 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.317 0.311 0.176 28.1% 10.5% 33.3% 50.0% 1B $2,500 1B/OF $3,100 1B $5,500
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.242 0.265 0.083 22.0% 2.6% 16.4% 47.2% SS $2,800 SS $2,600 SS $4,700
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.329 0.277 0.087 36.5% 6.3% 17.0% 43.5% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – Pete Kozma, James McCann, John Hicks

Secondary Plays – Mike Mahtook, Victor Martinez, Jacoby Jones

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious