MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-27 01:30:33

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Pittsburgh
			Kevin Gausman							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BAL-113							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	0.340	30.1%	12.3%	20.6%	40.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.293	23.3%	7.4%	16.1%	47.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.336	33.2%	6.5%	22.1%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.301	0.331	33.6%	9.1%	19.7%	49.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kevin Gausman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		6 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29	Salary Rank:		8 of 29
	2016	30	3.81	3.61	23.0%	6.2%	44.1%	31.1%	18.3%
	2017	32	4.51	4.61	21.4%	9.0%	42.6%	32.0%	18.2%
	L30	5	3.97	1.71	24.2%	7.3%	45.8%	19.1%	17.9%

In yesterday’s Grind Down, we talked a lot about motivation. Clearly, it’s important at this point of the season. The Diamondbacks rested all of their position players and we saw Zack Godley get shelled in what I call the hangover game. When making lineups in the last week, try to look for teams or players that are still motivated to play well.

We start with the Orioles and Pirates; two teams that have been eliminated from postseason contention. Right off the bat, I’m giving both teams a slight downgrade in terms of fantasy appeal. One player that should still have motivation on the Orioles is Kevin Gausman, who has to feel like he wasted the first half of the season. After a dreadful start, he has really turned it around in the last two months. He’s striking batters out at a high rate again and his command has improved drastically. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Pirates in an NL ballpark (he’ll get to face the opposing pitcher). The only issue is that Pittsburgh has the third lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is viable as an SP2 in cash games, but there are pitchers with higher ceilings that I’d rather target in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29
	2016	1	4.28	7.82	18.0%	8.2%	45.5%	31.1%	17.8%
	2017	24	4.68	4.18	17.9%	8.2%	48.3%	28.4%	22.1%
	L30	5	4.92	2.12	19.7%	11.0%	45.1%	24.4%	12.8%

I’ll make this short — Williams shouldn’t be on your radar tonight. He has a below-average strikeout rate and reverse splits (.331 xwOBA allowed to right-handed hitters). The Orioles feast on low-strikeout pitchers and will likely have seven righties in their lineup tonight. In a full 15 game slate, we can find better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Williams in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles see a negative ballpark shift playing in Pittsburgh and they also lose the use of the DH since this is an National League ballpark. Even though a matchup against Trevor Williams looks enticing for the right-handed hitters, I’m not too excited about the Orioles’ bats in this one. Manny Machado stands out as an intriguing one-off, as he boasts a .362 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.339	0.314	0.182	40.1%	5.6%	29.0%	48.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,700
2	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.331	0.362	0.214	37.4%	8.0%	16.5%	43.1%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
3	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.343	0.304	0.191	33.4%	4.2%	20.3%	41.9%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.337	0.311	0.191	30.4%	3.4%	17.5%	44.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.324	0.337	0.246	44.6%	12.2%	35.6%	36.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.368	0.349	0.236	34.7%	6.4%	22.6%	52.2%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
7	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.322	0.326	0.202	36.4%	5.8%	26.3%	42.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
8	Austin Hays	RIGHT	0.263	0.222	0.043	18.8%	4.2%	29.2%	75.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,600	CF	$5,200
9	Kevin Gausman	RIGHT	0.000		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$8,800	P	$8,200	P	$15,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

These large slates are all about options. When we have so many choices, we can’t afford to make mistakes. While anything can happen in baseball, we want to put ourselves in the best position to win the contests that we join. There isn’t anything that stands out from a Pirates’ offense that is ranked 26th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Kevin Gausman has allowed a .335+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate, but most of that damage came earlier in the season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.332	0.333	0.144	29.7%	8.7%	11.5%	46.5%	OF	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.336	0.323	0.121	25.3%	5.3%	18.1%	48.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.325	0.332	0.156	32.7%	9.9%	18.7%	44.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.344	0.328	0.214	32.1%	11.3%	19.0%	51.4%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.316	0.331	0.106	31.3%	10.7%	24.7%	56.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.307	0.314	0.160	27.5%	6.8%	12.3%	39.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,600
7	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.262	0.268	0.098	25.3%	6.1%	18.3%	54.5%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.303	0.304	0.144	27.4%	9.4%	15.8%	48.9%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.090	0.172	0.000	12.0%	5.1%	30.8%	60.0%	P	$6,300	P	$6,500	P	$12,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								NY Yankees
			Blake Snell							Jordan Montgomery
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-170							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.238	0.275	29.2%	11.1%	22.2%	43.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	0.330	22.6%	9.5%	15.5%	46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.309	33.3%	10.7%	20.2%	43.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.300	27.9%	7.9%	23.6%	39.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Blake Snell
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		21 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2016	19	4.53	3.54	24.4%	12.7%	36.5%	31.4%	22.2%
	2017	22	4.87	4.01	20.5%	10.7%	43.1%	32.8%	19.4%
	L30	5	4.29	2.73	21.9%	7.9%	44.9%	33.8%	18.8%

Snell has been sharp in his last five outings, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He still has a lot to prove and he is finally starting to show the promise that many have seen in him for years. The issue tonight is the matchup. The Yankees have clinched a wildcard berth, but can technically still catch the Red Sox for the AL East crown. Until Boston clinches the division, the Yankees will be plenty motivated. As a large underdog on the road in a tough pitching environment, Snell is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is my second favorite young southpaw in this game.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29

	2017	27	4.34	4.06	22.4%	8.1%	40.8%	27.1%	17.1%
	L30	4	4.71	4.50	22.2%	11.1%	40.7%	27.8%	18.5%

Montgomery has pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 4.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He pitched a gem in his last start, shutting out the Orioles with six strikeouts in six innings of work. His high walk rate is always a concern, but he’s pitching at home in a near-perfect matchup against the Rays. On the season, Tampa Bay is ranked 23rd in team wOBA and dead last in k-rate against left-handed pitching. If you look at their projected lineup below, they don’t have a single hitter with an xwOBA over .325 against lefties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is cheap, he’s a large favorite, he’s at home, and he draws a nice matchup against the Rays.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, but are not an offense that I will be targeting tonight. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Jordan Montgomery, who has held right-handed hitters to a .300 xwOBA and left-handed hitters to a 23% hard contact rate. The biggest issue is that this Rays’ team isn’t equipped to face lefties. As mentioned above, they don’t have a single hitter in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .325 against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.298	0.249	0.114	27.1%	6.1%	26.4%	59.6%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
2	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.335	0.297	0.141	29.7%	15.5%	27.3%	47.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.284	0.311	0.144	35.4%	11.2%	20.3%	47.2%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,300	3B	$6,400
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.333	0.323	0.195	26.7%	13.6%	23.6%	33.7%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.277	0.293	0.223	40.0%	7.7%	33.7%	41.7%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,400
6	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.334	0.311	0.167	32.6%	5.2%	13.8%	58.7%	C	$2,800	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.322	0.295	0.208	37.5%	6.0%	17.9%	44.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,400
8	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.300	0.286	0.163	38.2%	9.0%	28.1%	44.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,600
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.325	0.268	0.190	38.4%	7.4%	25.0%	47.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Aaron Judge hit his 50th home run of the season yesterday, which broke Mark Mcgwire’s home run record for a rookie. The Yankees’ offense has been firing on all cylinders over the last couple of weeks, but their matchup against Blake Snell isn’t what I would call an exploitable one. While he has struggled with his command at times, Snell has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. The current Yankees’ roster has a paltry .265 xwOBA against him in 109 career plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.269	0.297	0.077	21.4%	9.1%	17.1%	51.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.395	0.457	0.270	46.2%	24.7%	30.7%	33.8%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.369	0.384	0.269	38.3%	10.7%	22.3%	39.5%	C	$3,500	C	$4,900	C	$9,600
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.380	0.360	0.222	39.3%	14.6%	27.1%	48.2%	OF	$2,900	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,800
5	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.304	0.325	0.158	29.2%	5.2%	21.3%	42.5%	1B	$3,800	1B/3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.287	0.264	0.094	15.0%	4.0%	14.0%	35.3%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400
7	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.362	0.388	0.336	39.0%	14.3%	21.8%	22.0%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
8	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.323	0.230	0.042	15.9%	5.2%	13.0%	63.5%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,600	2B	$5,100
9	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.328	0.243	0.290	40.0%	0.0%	35.5%	30.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Philadelphia
			Gio Gonzalez							Jake Thompson
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-146							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.237	0.265	23.1%	8.0%	22.3%	52.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.351	28.9%	13.9%	12.5%	59.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.295	30.9%	9.4%	23.2%	44.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.412	0.370	32.5%	8.6%	18.0%	39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gio Gonzalez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,000
	Salary Rank:		5 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29
	2016	32	3.96	4.57	22.4%	7.7%	47.6%	32.7%	18.1%
	2017	30	4.33	2.68	23.0%	9.1%	46.0%	29.1%	21.2%
	L30	5	3.92	4.25	24.0%	7.4%	50.0%	32.9%	20.7%

Gonzalez isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but the big gap between his ERA (2.68) and his SIERA (4.33) has led to an inflated price point for most of the season. His salary in DFS isn’t truly indicative of his skill level, which makes him an easy fade in most of his starts. The Nationals are locked into the two seed, so they have little to play for in their next six games. While the Phillies have been an exploitable matchup at times, they have improved mightily since calling up Rhys Hoskins. This is also a bad ballpark for pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Gonzalez is only a small favorite with Jake Thompson pitching opposite him. That tells you all that you need to know.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Thompson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29
	2016	10	5.68	5.70	13.5%	11.8%	46.4%	34.1%	14.5%
	2017	7	5.32	4.14	15.9%	10.6%	47.0%	31.1%	17.0%
	L30	5	5.24	4.10	16.8%	10.9%	48.8%	25.3%	18.1%

Thompson is one of the easiest fades of the slate. In his last 17 major league starts, he has a SIERA close to 5.50 with a walk rate (11%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (14%). He gives up a lot of soft and medium contact and he has to face a talented Nationals’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Thompson should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Over the next few days, we will likely see the Nationals rest some of their starters. They have nothing to play for and want to be healthy as they head into the postseason. We could also see substitutions late in games, which will only give the starters a few at-bats. While I love their matchup against Jake Thompson, I’m a little hesitant to play the Nationals’ hitters. With 14 other games on the schedule, we shouldn’t treat any of the Nationals’ bats as must plays. With that said, this is a great spot for both Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.358	0.318	0.201	27.0%	6.4%	18.0%	50.4%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,500	IF/OF	$10,800
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.313	0.318	0.170	29.9%	11.1%	23.7%	43.3%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.455	0.438	0.350	35.9%	16.7%	16.4%	37.2%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,400
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.373	0.369	0.248	39.0%	7.5%	23.1%	47.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,800
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.383	0.369	0.225	34.7%	9.5%	10.9%	33.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,300
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.379	0.355	0.211	33.3%	13.0%	14.5%	34.9%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,200
7	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.325	0.280	0.209	33.5%	6.6%	32.8%	42.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.264	0.298	0.109	29.6%	7.8%	18.8%	41.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	Gio Gonzalez	LEFT	0.138	0.162	0.000	9.4%	7.0%	36.8%	52.0%	P	$9,100	P	$10,400	P	$20,000

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are underdogs tonight against Gio Gonzalez, who has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. Gio has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season. Outside of Rhys Hoskins as a low-owned tournament play (.511 xwOBA against lefties this season), there isn’t a lot to see here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.336	0.332	0.182	24.4%	7.7%	12.8%	58.1%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.275	0.263	0.099	21.9%	3.2%	11.6%	39.7%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.336	0.266	0.151	22.5%	3.8%	30.4%	59.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.484	0.511	0.563	52.0%	28.3%	15.2%	32.0%	1B	$4,000	1B/OF	$4,700	1B	$9,200
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.350	0.353	0.270	39.0%	10.7%	16.1%	46.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
6	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.349	0.314	0.192	33.0%	3.3%	24.2%	51.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.157	0.206	0.036	11.8%	6.7%	36.7%	58.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,200	C	$6,300
8	J.P. Crawford	LEFT	0.310		0.077	0.0%	27.8%	27.8%	12.5%	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400
9	Jake Thompson	RIGHT	0.000		0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$6,000	P	$5,600	P	$11,200

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Aaron Altherr

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								NY Mets
			R.A. Dickey							Rafael Montero
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-102							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.293	24.1%	7.6%	15.4%	46.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.304	27.1%	11.2%	19.4%	47.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.352	0.336	30.1%	9.2%	17.7%	46.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.318	25.0%	12.8%	23.0%	47.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
R.A. Dickey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2016	29	4.81	4.46	17.3%	8.7%	42.1%	30.0%	22.7%
	2017	30	4.94	4.32	16.7%	8.5%	46.8%	27.4%	23.8%
	L30	6	4.83	5.70	17.0%	6.9%	38.0%	32.2%	24.0%

Dickey had a nice string of starts a little while back, but he’s back to being the pitcher that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in the last few seasons. In his last six starts, he has a 4.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17%. His calling card is inducing soft and medium contact. If he can do that tonight against the Mets, he could turn in a surprisingly nice fantasy outing. The Mets current lineup is dreadful. The projected lineup combines for a .298 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Dickey’s form scares me off of him in cash games, but he’s certainly viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rafael Montero
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		19 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29
	2016	3	5.40	8.05	21.5%	17.2%	35.7%	31.6%	17.5%
	2017	17	4.81	5.30	21.3%	12.0%	47.7%	26.1%	20.7%
	L30	6	5.38	4.91	19.3%	14.0%	48.5%	27.0%	25.0%

The Mets have been shattered by injuries this season. The players on the DL alone would make a better team than the one that they are rolling out right now. Montero has a decent strikeout rate (21%), but his high walk rate (12%) has led to a high SIERA (4.81) and ERA (5.30). Tonight’s matchup against the Braves doesn’t look great on paper, although Atlanta averages the fewest number of pitches per plate appearance against right-handed pitching of any team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: I’m worried about Montero’s upside against the Braves, who have one of the lowest k-rates in baseball this season.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

This is one of those games that I don’t have a ton of interest in overall. While Rafael Montero has a high walk rate and a high SIERA, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate this season. With this game being played in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field, I wouldn’t call this a great hitting environment. Freddie Freeman is fine as a one-off in tournaments, but there are a handful of first baseman that I would rather play tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.329	0.288	0.113	23.9%	6.3%	14.4%	43.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.323	0.300	0.152	32.7%	8.7%	18.1%	40.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.431	0.429	0.303	38.6%	14.4%	16.2%	33.5%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$5,200	1B	$10,000
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.321	0.338	0.108	34.8%	11.2%	16.6%	47.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
5	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.361	0.339	0.176	39.6%	6.4%	23.0%	39.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
6	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.284	0.270	0.098	26.8%	4.9%	20.1%	50.4%	SS	$2,800	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
7	Lane Adams	RIGHT	0.387	0.362	0.237	42.2%	7.7%	23.1%	46.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400	LF	$4,800
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.268	0.285	0.091	27.4%	10.5%	22.3%	48.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,400	SS	$4,800
9	R.A. Dickey	RIGHT	0.123	0.148	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	15.1%	68.3%	P	$6,600	P	$6,400	P	$12,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

R.A. Dickey generates a lot of soft and hard contact. He may not have a high strikeout rate, but we rarely see him get shelled. Outside of Asdrubal Cabrera, the current Mets’ roster has not fared well against Dickey in the past. I always place more of an emphasis on BvP when a knuckleball pitcher is on the mound because it’s such a unique pitch and most players can either hit it or they can’t. Cabrera is 8-for-26 with three home runs against Dickey in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.325	0.294	0.139	24.9%	6.6%	12.1%	54.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
2	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.297	0.289	0.146	27.0%	9.0%	14.0%	38.1%	SS	$4,200	3B/SS	$3,600	SS	$7,200
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.316	0.332	0.176	38.0%	9.7%	16.8%	41.0%	3B	$3,500	2B/SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
4	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.385	0.356	0.176	36.4%	17.0%	24.4%	46.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
5	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.273	0.301	0.165	33.0%	4.5%	14.7%	39.6%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
6	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.304	0.325	0.225	37.2%	5.1%	21.2%	51.2%	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,700
7	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.273	0.230	0.121	23.9%	1.9%	31.1%	47.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,400
8	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.286	0.257	0.124	29.2%	5.5%	20.6%	53.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,800
9	Rafael Montero	RIGHT	0.092		0.000	7.1%	0.0%	30.0%	81.8%	P	$6,400	P	$5,700	P	$11,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Cleveland
			Bartolo Colon							Josh Tomlin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-200							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.387	0.362	42.9%	6.7%	13.7%	34.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.332	0.331	37.6%	2.6%	18.0%	41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.385	0.334	31.6%	4.4%	13.4%	48.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.351	34.0%	2.5%	18.6%	39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$44	Salary:		$4,600	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29
	2016	33	4.37	3.43	16.2%	4.1%	43.2%	35.4%	16.2%
	2017	26	5.12	6.63	13.6%	5.5%	41.8%	36.9%	18.0%
	L30	6	5.11	6.53	12.3%	3.6%	41.7%	37.9%	16.4%

Happy Bartolo Colon day everybody. FanDuel is offering tournaments with buy-ins to honor the 44-year-old in what could be his final career major league start. FanDuel also priced him at a laughable $44. While I don’t love gimmick pricing in DFS, it at least brings him into consideration on a slate where we typically wouldn’t give him a second look. Personally, I will not be rostering Colon in any format. He has a 14% strikeout rate on the season and he is facing one of the best offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: I will be cheering for Colon to pitch well, but he’s an easy fade for me tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	24	4.20	4.98	18.3%	2.6%	40.5%	35.5%	13.6%
	L30	4	4.24	2.91	16.7%	2.4%	47.1%	32.4%	11.8%

The Indians have wrapped up their division, but they are still playing for the number one seed in the American League. They only hold a two-game lead over the Astros, so look for them to roll out their usual starters until they secure home-field advantage. Tomlin is a pitcher that I always have a tough time using in DFS. While he throws a ton of strikes, it hasn’t led to a high strikeout rate. Sure, it allows him to pitch deeper into games at times, but a pitcher with an 18% k-rate and a 36% hard contact rate doesn’t seem that appealing in a 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Tomlin is cheap and a large favorite at home, but I prefer Montgomery and Paxton at similar price points.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins will secure the wildcard with a win tonight, but it’s far from a must win situation. They currently have a 99.5% chance to make the playoffs, even as massive underdogs tonight. While I won’t have a ton of exposure to this offense, the matchup against Josh Tomlin is an intriguing one. On the season, Tomlin has allowed a .331 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .351 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.325	0.313	0.193	32.4%	10.1%	20.4%	39.0%	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,800	2B	$9,300
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.357	0.393	0.130	41.0%	12.0%	13.4%	49.8%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,800
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.314	0.286	0.148	26.6%	9.0%	14.5%	39.1%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.375	0.341	0.267	33.0%	7.2%	17.4%	38.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.324	0.319	0.213	32.7%	6.3%	19.9%	34.2%	3B	$3,400	3B/SS	$4,000	SS	$7,800
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.354	0.325	0.216	36.0%	9.3%	16.5%	41.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,200
7	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.299	0.267	0.173	27.4%	6.2%	30.8%	40.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,700
8	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.309	0.316	0.154	34.6%	12.8%	29.2%	40.9%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
9	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.334	0.341	0.163	29.9%	13.7%	18.8%	39.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians still need to win baseball games, so we can target their hitters with confidence tonight against Bartolo Colon. While the baseball gods may want him to pitch well, this is an excellent matchup for Cleveland. Colon owns a 14% strikeout rate with a 37% hard contact rate. On the season, he has allowed a .362 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .334 xwOBA against right-handed hitters. While people will be playing Colon in tournaments on FanDuel, I will be stacking the Indians against him.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.345	0.346	0.239	32.1%	8.4%	12.9%	40.3%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,600	SS	$10,800
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.322	0.304	0.126	36.2%	7.9%	22.5%	45.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.398	0.355	0.272	33.6%	8.4%	10.7%	38.6%	2B	$4,400	2B/3B	$5,400	IF/OF	$10,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.376	0.388	0.265	37.5%	13.9%	19.4%	34.6%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,000	1B	$9,900
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.372	0.374	0.279	42.8%	9.8%	20.8%	32.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.375	0.390	0.225	37.5%	14.0%	17.8%	32.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,200
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.306	0.306	0.193	32.5%	6.8%	20.1%	30.8%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.267	0.257	0.101	23.5%	7.5%	26.2%	39.4%	C	$3,000	C	$2,600	C	$5,100
9	Giovanny Urshela	RIGHT	0.256	0.307	0.049	23.0%	6.8%	9.1%	43.8%	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,500	3B	$4,800

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 26th

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Stackability Rating System:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Aaron Altherr

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Stackability – GREEN

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