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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-04-20 02:11:18

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis – 1:45 PM ET

Pittsburgh St. Louis
pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole stlouismlb Michael Wacha
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-114 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 38.7% 7.2% 23.1% 39.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 28.5% 7.5% 18.5% 45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 25.1% 6.6% 14.8% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.361 30.6% 7.2% 20.3% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 24 4.24 4.06 18.8% 6.9% 46.1% 31.2% 20.9%

We have an intriguing four game early slate with no clear number one pitcher. Cole is certainly a viable play here, especially if Matt Carpenter is unable to suit up. Cole hasn’t quite lived up to expectations as the number one overall pick, but he has improved in each of his first three starts this season. His strikeout rate is slightly below the league average, but he is facing a Cardinals’ offense that has come limping out of the gates this season.

Quick Breakdown: In what should be a close, low scoring game, Cole is worth a look in tournaments.

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 26 4.23 4.92 19.5% 7.3% 45.8% 29.7% 18.8%

If you compare the numbers of Wacha and Cole, they are eerily similar. They both have a SIERA close to 4.20 and a strikeout rate around 19%. Wacha has the advantage of pitching at home and is listed as a slight favorite according to the Vegas line. The Pirates may not strikeout at a high rate, but they have very little power outside of Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen. With Starling Marte suspended, that is only one less hitter for Wacha to worry about. After racking up 14 strikeouts in his first two starts of the season, Wacha is the preferred pitcher in this one. His swinging strike rate of 14.4% so far this season is jumping off the page at me.

Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats. One of my favorite pitchers in the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

In the last two seasons, Michael Wacha has had reverse splits, allowing a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters. While that number is certainly high, he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact and has been sharp in his first two starts of the season. Gregory Polanco and Andrew McCutchen are viable secondary plays in the outfield, but this is not an offense that we need to load up on in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.130 31.9% 8.1% 16.8% 42.0% SS $2,500 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.331 0.193 36.1% 9.1% 17.7% 38.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.328 0.167 36.3% 9.4% 21.6% 35.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.322 0.131 33.3% 8.7% 27.7% 59.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.349 0.150 33.3% 14.0% 12.0% 46.8% 1B $2,300 1B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.090 26.6% 13.6% 18.7% 53.8% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,300
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.290 0.090 26.0% 3.7% 14.3% 45.8% 2B $3,100 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,500
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.289 0.099 24.3% 7.7% 14.8% 51.1% SS $2,200 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.142 0.000 5.6% 0.0% 45.5% 80.0% P $8,500 P $8,900 P $17,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals aren’t any better off than the Pirates’ offense, but at least they are playing at home. Gerrit Cole has been very tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a 25% hard contact rate. Lefties have had success against him though, as he has allowed a .377 wOBA with a 38% hard contact rate. If Matt Carpenter is in the lineup, he can be targeted in tournaments. Dexter Fowler is also a decent option in the outfield.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.348 0.152 28.1% 14.3% 25.9% 37.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.391 0.249 32.1% 8.1% 13.1% 43.8% SS $3,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.383 0.254 46.1% 15.6% 19.0% 28.0% 2B $3,000 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.330 0.169 33.7% 6.4% 22.4% 45.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.337 0.117 30.9% 6.6% 10.3% 48.7% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.327 0.146 32.8% 6.9% 17.1% 41.9% SS $2,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.313 0.232 40.3% 4.3% 31.4% 42.9% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.290 0.118 24.5% 10.3% 13.5% 47.6% 2B $2,500 2B $3,300 2B $6,600
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.104 0.000 0.0% 7.9% 52.6% 88.9% P $7,600 P $7,200 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter (if he’s in the lineup)

Stackability – RED

Milwaukee Chicago Cubs
milwaukeemlb Tommy Milone cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-220 7.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 41.7% 5.0% 18.8% 31.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.280 25.5% 5.6% 22.1% 47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 32.0% 6.7% 14.5% 47.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.241 28.0% 6.2% 23.1% 49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tommy Milone
tommy-milone-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 14 4.54 5.94 15.5% 6.4% 44.0% 34.0% 20.9%

To put it kindly, Milone has not been very good at baseball, at least not at the major league level. In his last 14 starts, he has a 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5%. He allows a lot of hard contact and he has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate. To make matters worse, he has to face the Cubs, who will likely end up having a top five offense against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There are plenty of viable pitching options in this slate, but Milone is not one of them.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $19,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 32 3.71 2.33 22.6% 5.9% 48.6% 26.9% 25.0%

Hendricks doesn’t have the most electric fastball, but he has pinpoint control and some excellent breaking pitches. He has struggled a bit in his first two starts of the season, allowing seven earned runs while only striking out nine batters. He is a huge favorite at home against the Brewers, but at this point, I’m scared to target any pitcher that is facing Milwaukee. They have been absolutely mashing the baseball in the last two weeks. They are still a high strikeout team, so Hendricks is worth a look in tournaments, but he’s not my favorite cash game target. Update: Ryan Braun is not in the Brewers’ lineup. Bump up Hendricks.

Quick Breakdown: The strikeout upside is there and Hendricks is the biggest favorite in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

There isn’t a hotter hitter in baseball than Eric Thames. The sample size is obviously small this season, but in 48 plate appearances, he has a .604 wOBA. This is obviously not sustainable production, but there is no reason why this hot streak can’t continue in the short run. Kyle Hendricks has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, but there is something to be said about the streak that this team is on.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.341 0.158 35.9% 11.7% 26.3% 60.7% 2B $3,000 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.505 0.400 54.6% 8.8% 23.5% 36.4% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $4,400 1B $8,700
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.362 0.226 33.1% 7.9% 19.1% 56.1% OF $4,600 OF $5,100 LF $10,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.322 0.182 34.1% 9.4% 24.2% 37.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.323 0.186 35.8% 10.8% 32.4% 48.8% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.294 0.151 37.5% 12.4% 34.7% 44.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.283 0.140 27.1% 3.2% 17.2% 28.2% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.251 0.122 20.9% 4.7% 22.1% 56.1% SS $2,100 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Tommy Milone LEFT 0.351 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 20.0% 75.0% P $6,200 P $5,700 P $11,200

Elite Plays – Eric Thames (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames (Cash), Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

When Tommy Milone is on the mound, everyone is in play. He allows a high wOBA and a hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Cubs have one of the highest implied run totals in the early slate and we can stack them in both cash games and tournaments. I prefer to use the right-handed bats in this lineup, but Kyle Schwarber and Anthony Rizzo have both shown an ability to overcome the daunted lefty/lefty matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.425 0.308 22.2% 27.8% 22.2% 33.3% OF $3,400 OF $5,000 IF/OF $9,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.449 0.339 41.1% 13.4% 19.9% 30.2% 3B $3,900 3B $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.372 0.209 25.0% 9.1% 12.3% 43.8% 1B $4,200 1B $5,300 1B $10,400
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.361 0.147 30.3% 12.8% 19.0% 56.8% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.357 0.257 32.1% 12.2% 22.7% 33.3% SS $2,700 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.362 0.181 29.9% 4.5% 18.2% 56.7% C $2,700 C $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.266 0.075 23.1% 10.7% 19.0% 48.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.349 0.153 31.4% 8.8% 18.4% 39.6% 2B $2,600 2B $4,100 3B $8,000
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.136 0.000 8.3% 5.0% 35.0% 44.4% P $9,300 P $10,200 P $19,800

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Texas Oakland
texasmlb Martin Perez oaklandmlb Jesse Hahn
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-110 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 20.7% 11.3% 19.6% 55.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.403 37.2% 8.3% 13.3% 37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 33.3% 9.0% 11.1% 51.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 24.3% 8.8% 12.5% 53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 36 5.10 4.23 12.6% 9.4% 52.6% 31.3% 16.1%

Perez may be playing in a pitcher-friendly environment, but there is no reason for him to be on your radar. At 12.6%, he has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. Sure, he has a high ground ball rate and doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, but when your strikeout upside each game is two or three batters, that’s just not going to cut it in DFS. This is also a bad matchup for Perez, as the A’s will likely throw nine right-handed hitters at him, most of which are fly ball hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Jesse Hahn
jesse-hahn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 10 5.07 5.55 12.9% 8.6% 46.2% 30.4% 20.9%

Hahn narrowly edged out Perez for the highest strikeout rate in this matchup. Since the start of last season, Hahn has struck out 12.9% of the batters that he has faced, which is 0.3% higher than Perez. Does that mean we should give Hahn a look? Of course not. With a strikeout rate this low, Hahn would have to pitch a near perfect game to reach value and we shouldn’t expect that in a matchup against the Rangers.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The sample size is only ten starts, but Jesse Hahn has some drastic differences between his splits to left and right-handed hitters. Against righties, he allows a .305 wOBA, a 24% hard contact rate, and he has a ground ball rate of 53%. Against lefties, he allows a .403 wOBA, a 37% hard contact rate, and he has a ground ball rate of 36%. Nomar Mazara and Rougned Odor are both in excellent spots today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.310 0.188 30.6% 8.5% 28.5% 41.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.282 0.093 37.6% 11.3% 23.7% 47.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.347 0.196 31.0% 7.0% 18.6% 45.9% OF $4,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.335 0.241 35.9% 10.7% 29.8% 36.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.345 0.256 34.6% 2.4% 21.4% 38.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.359 0.183 33.0% 7.6% 16.3% 40.1% C $3,200 C $4,100 C $8,000
7 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.342 0.149 27.1% 7.8% 11.7% 46.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 SS $7,800
8 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.268 0.180 47.6% 15.3% 49.2% 23.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
9 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.315 0.119 23.2% 11.6% 20.7% 47.6% OF $2,500 2B/3B $3,400 2B $6,800

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gomez, Shin-Soo Choo, Mike Napoli, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Oakland

The A’s are my second favorite offense to target in the early slate, right behind the Cubs. Martin Perez struggles against right-handed hitters and he relies on a high ground ball rate to stay out of trouble. Meanwhile, the A’s will likely have nine righties in their lineup and every single one has an average or above-average fly ball rate. This is going to negate Perez’s ground balls and turn into a lot of hits. Even in this ballpark, I will be stacking the A’s in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.278 0.130 25.9% 8.1% 23.7% 41.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
2 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.286 0.031 23.5% 7.5% 16.0% 42.0% 2B $2,300 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
3 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.368 0.289 37.7% 8.7% 24.8% 41.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
4 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.353 0.241 33.3% 2.4% 20.0% 40.9% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.314 0.191 41.5% 8.9% 25.7% 44.6% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.270 0.070 41.7% 6.4% 14.9% 44.4% C $2,000 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.220 0.219 25.0% 0.0% 37.5% 40.0% OF $2,100 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
8 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.361 0.243 39.3% 14.3% 37.3% 41.0% 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,600 3B $5,100
9 Chad Pinder RIGHT

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Ryon Healy, Trevor Plouffe

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Jed Lowrie, Josh Phegley

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Miami Seattle
miamimlb Edinson Volquez seattlemlb Felix Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-150 7.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 34.1% 10.3% 17.1% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 28.7% 9.4% 17.9% 50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.335 30.2% 7.3% 16.9% 55.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 26.8% 8.5% 19.5% 48.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
edinson-volquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 37 4.63 5.22 17.0% 8.9% 50.6% 32.3% 19.1%

Volquez carries very little fantasy appeal in most of his starts, especially when he is pitching on the road against a very capable offense. Volquez has a below-average strikeout rate and isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.

Felix Hernandez
felix-hernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,400 Salary: $20,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 28 4.44 3.72 18.8% 8.9% 49.7% 27.6% 16.9%

I’ve been avoiding Hernandez for over a year now, but I’m finally starting to believe in the comeback. His velocity has been a little better this season and his strikeout rate is back above 20%. He has been dominant at Safeco Field throughout his career and gets to face a Marlins’ offense that has very little power outside of Giancarlo Stanton. If I had to rank my four top pitchers in the early slate, I would go Hernandez, Wacha, Hendricks, and Cole (in that order).

Quick Breakdown: It’s been a while since the I’ve rostered the King. Let’s make it a good one, shall we?

Batter Grind Down

Miami

With Felix Hernandez being my favorite pitching option in the slate, I’m obviously not too high on the Mariners’ offense. Even during his down year, Hernandez still limited the hard contact against him. The Marlins have a low implied run total and can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments. Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton are the best options here, but I will be avoiding the Marlins as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.292 0.069 18.7% 4.9% 16.0% 57.9% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.353 0.129 31.1% 5.5% 16.3% 50.7% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.378 0.212 42.1% 12.5% 20.7% 54.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.325 0.226 39.8% 9.2% 30.4% 38.1% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.340 0.217 36.1% 12.8% 16.8% 43.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
6 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.326 0.175 35.8% 7.4% 19.4% 46.0% OF $3,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.358 0.155 28.9% 8.7% 20.4% 37.7% 2B $2,000 3B $2,900 2B $5,600
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.286 0.059 17.4% 7.9% 13.6% 55.7% SS $2,700 3B/SS $2,300 2B $4,500
9 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.301 0.083 23.6% 6.9% 9.9% 48.4% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 RF $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Seattle

Since the start of last season, Edinson Volquez has allowed a .349 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Mariners’ offense is in a good spot at home and they will want to bounce back in a big way after only getting one hit against Miami last night. Jarrod Dyson provides stolen base upside batting leadoff, while Mitch Haniger, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager all have a hard contact rate of at least 34% against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.296 0.099 16.5% 7.6% 11.4% 54.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.363 0.221 37.5% 10.7% 19.3% 38.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.386 0.261 37.4% 8.1% 12.6% 42.9% 2B $3,500 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.356 0.213 34.3% 8.7% 24.7% 44.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.380 0.217 39.0% 12.1% 14.4% 35.3% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
6 Taylor Motter RIGHT 0.268 0.184 29.3% 10.5% 22.1% 44.8% SS $3,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.306 0.131 29.9% 6.8% 24.2% 44.0% 1B $2,400 1B $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.281 0.125 30.2% 8.6% 25.9% 41.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
9 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.310 0.227 34.4% 6.5% 34.7% 29.5% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $6,000

Elite Plays – Jarrod Dyson, Mitch Haniger (FD), Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Mitch Haniger (DK), Taylor Motter

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago White Sox NY Yankees
whitesoxmlb Dylan Covey nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-220 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 15.4% 7.1% 0.0% 61.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 32.7% 4.3% 20.0% 49.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.439 20.0% 25.0% 12.5% 60.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 30.9% 5.7% 20.7% 47.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Covey
dylan-covey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 1 6.03 1.69 4.6% 13.6% 61.1% 16.7% 22.2%

Covey is making his second career major league start. He didn’t have a great strikeout rate in the minors and posted a 13% walk rate in six Double-A starts a year ago. He comes into tonight’s game as one of the largest underdogs in the entire slate. The Yankees do not make easy outs, so Covey will have his work cut out for him.

Quick Breakdown: Easy fade.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016-17 34 3.85 3.41 20.3% 5.0% 48.0% 31.8% 18.7%

Tanaka is one of my favorite pitchers in the slate and that’s saying something considering the fact that Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, and Chris Archer are all on the mound tonight. This White Sox offense is absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching. They only have two batters in their projected lineup with at least a .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also strikeout at a high clip against righties. Tanaka may not be an elite strikeout pitcher at this stage in his career, but sees a major bump in this matchup. If you are a premium member, my hot take for the day in the Expert Survey is that Tanaka will rack up double-digit strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: Clayton Kershaw is the top dog tonight, but Tanaka is an elite tournament play on FanDuel and a viable SP2 in all formats on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have decent numbers against left-handed pitching, but are one of the worst in baseball against righties. To make matters worse, Masahiro Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons. Even in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, I will be avoiding the White Sox offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.299 0.131 22.3% 4.3% 20.8% 49.7% SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,400 2B $6,600
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.292 0.146 30.4% 2.9% 27.1% 50.6% SS $2,400 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.337 0.154 28.4% 7.8% 9.9% 43.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.340 0.151 30.7% 6.1% 17.7% 45.4% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.319 0.227 31.4% 9.4% 23.0% 38.0% 3B $3,400 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
6 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.316 0.137 30.2% 6.9% 25.9% 53.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
7 Carlos Sanchez SWITCH 0.270 0.172 23.3% 3.8% 26.2% 34.5%
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.275 0.032 14.8% 11.3% 12.3% 43.2% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,800
9 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.314 0.182 22.2% 2.1% 17.0% 61.1% 2B $2,100 OF $2,700 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top stacks on the board tonight. For an 11 game slate, there are surprisingly not that many offenses in great spots, but the Yankees are one of the chosen few. Dylan Covey is a young pitcher that is only making his second career start above the Double-A level. He has not shown good command and the Yankees finally have some power in their lineup. The top seven batters in this lineup are all in play for stacking purposes. When it comes to the individual hitters, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Starlin Castro are all on my radar for cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.335 0.106 25.9% 13.2% 16.2% 51.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 LF $7,600
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.329 0.129 27.5% 9.5% 12.3% 47.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.338 0.189 35.0% 9.9% 17.6% 51.5% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.318 0.164 30.5% 3.6% 19.1% 50.3% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.333 0.167 31.8% 11.0% 26.0% 42.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.114 0.038 38.5% 10.3% 44.8% 33.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
7 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.316 0.242 49.2% 7.3% 37.6% 40.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.271 0.145 25.0% 5.5% 19.8% 40.3% C $2,700 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.315 0.158 22.6% 2.6% 9.8% 48.5% 3B $2,600 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Greg Bird (GPP), Aaron Judge

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious